TSP Talk Blog

Wednesday saw typical holiday action with light volume and slight to moderate gains. The Dow gained 13-points but the broader indices did well. The I-fund led and bonds saw modest gains as well.

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I'm going to keep this brief as I suspect few are working or paying much attention to the market today.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) saw typical holiday action with a 0.26% gain on light volume on Wednesday. Today should see a similar low volume day and if nothing spooks the market, shouldn't move very much. Slight gains are the historical norm but about 25% of the time, the Friday after Thanksgiving is negative.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) also posted a small gain and I suspect we won't see the real direction of the market, whether it breaks out or breaks down, until next week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has been floating higher before the holiday, but it now faces the 200-day EMA. If it remains in a bear market it would likely peak here fairly soon.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Here is the historical performance surrounding Thanksgiving Day. Today is day (+1). It's up about 75% of the time. That means it is down 25% of the time so there are no guarantees. Monday has some issues, historically.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The December seasonality chart shows that the month's big strength comes around Christmas and into New Years, but prior to that there is only one day of the month (trading day #3) that is up more than 55% of the time. So if there is going to be a pullback it may very well come in the first two or three weeks in December.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend! There is only a half day of trading on Friday.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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