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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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It was a mixed week on Wall Street last week as the Fed seemed to ease concerns on interest rates and the S&P 500 delivered with a solid gain. Small caps, on the other hand, continue to lag and lost ground, and the international stocks ended the week flat so the TSP stock funds were not treated equally last week and TSP participants have been rewarded or punished in September based on which stock funds they've selected.



Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 19:





The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke out to a new high last week but it will have to deal with some overhead resistance to start the new week. This is potentially an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which would be bullish. But it is sloping upward and that doesn't make it quite as clean, and sometimes head and shoulders patterns come down to test the middle of the head before eventually breaking out, and that would mean another pullback. We'll have to see how the resistance plays out early next week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) hasn't had the success that the S&P 500 has experienced this year, and right now it remains in a downtrend. This could be a bull flag that breaks to the upside, but it is getting a little long and the relative weakness is obvious. The small caps are usually one of the market leaders but the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are showing the small caps up right now.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This chart shows the stark difference between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 (small caps) over the last month.


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) saw a very positive outside reversal day earlier in the week (green arrow), bouncing off of the 200-day EMA and pushing higher. But Friday's action produced a negative outside reversal day (purple arrow) and that turned what looked a like a positive development, into a potential negative one. The key could be the 200-day EMA and the low back in August. The EFA must resume the uptrend and take back that 50-day EMA before we can feel comfortable about being in the I-fund for any longer than a few days. In other words, there could be some positive days, but the trend is down and that's not a good outlook.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has been breaking down but did get a little rebound on Friday. There is a potential falling wedge formation, and they often break to the upside. It is due for some relief after falling nearly straight down all month, but this is a broken chart that will need some repair.



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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