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Notices

RULES FOR FOLLOWING THE SEVEN SENTINELS

The concurrent alignment of all seven signals under specific conditions constitutes a signal and defines the context or prevailing trend of the market. Here are the individual buy/sell triggers:

TRINQ and TRIN: Daily reading below the 13 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is buy mode, a reading above the 13 Day EMA is sell mode.

For NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, NYHL, a daily reading above the 6 Day EMA is buy mode, and reading below the 6 Day EMA is sell mode.

For BPCOMPQ, A positive crossing though the lower or upper bollinger band constitutes buy mode. A negative crossing through the lower or upper Bolinger Band constitutes sell mode. It stays in buy mode or in sell mode until it re-crosses in the opposite direction.

All seven must be in a sell or buy condition simultaneously to complete the signal.

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Volatililty Continues

Posted 11-02-2009 at 10:49 PM by coolhand
Early on today, it looked as thought the market might make another big reversal. But it was not to be, as the market took a dive around noon, dropping into the red for awhile before reversing once more and ending the day on a moderately positive note. The S fund didn't fare nearly as well as either C or I, and that happens to be the fund that is losing allocation share among our top 25%.

So the volatility continues. Here's the charts:

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These four signals remain on a sell, but the 6 day ema is dropping quickly, so a hard market reversal could easily trigger buy signals with all four of them.

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TRIN and TRINQ are flashing buys after today's action, but BPCOMPQ continues to drop. This signal implies that the trend is still down.

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Our top 25% are now at their most bearish since I began tracking their allocation. Total stock holdings are about 76%, with a cash level of 20%. Will this trend continue?

So the seven sentinels remain on a sell and volatility continues to rock the market. This is a very challenging market for TSPers, unless you're a buy and hold type. See you tomorrow.
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