ask tom

**RPM** · 05-01-2008, 06:01 PM

Tom:

I'd like to test the "Go away in May" theory with the TSP funds. On Stocktrader's Almanac, they posted the triggers date going back when. Do you have a spreadsheet with all the TSP share prices from inception? I was going to download them from tsp.gov, but thought I'd check with you first. You seem to have everything

Will post the results after I am done with it.

Thanks,

**tsptalk** · 05-02-2008, 06:02 AM

Sorry RPM, I don't.

**McDuck** · 05-14-2008, 12:56 AM

Tom, Do you ever hear from my archenemy m&m mikey?

**ucanbreached** · 05-16-2008, 04:57 PM

Tom,

In today's commentary you put references to the sentiment trader.com analysis. The chart of historical activity and its possibility on the next three months. It seems that you have misplaced the princeton 8.6 yr cycle chart you put up 20 march. link - http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_arch...s_3_20_08.html

Well, I am trying it out since the analysis you put up that day showed a strong historical accuracy. I actually bought at that march low and am now doing pretty good as a result.

That ref chart in the above link stated the market is supposed to go up until 1 qtr 2009 and then big drop for two years. Since I am somewhat young, I am going to play that chart; albeit I will definitly sell by Dec 08. Based on history and that chart, if someone would have followed it from its creation they would have done EXTREMELY well.

Anyway just wondering why you are using the short term sentiment trader analysis and not the longer term successful analysis you put up before.

**tsptalk** · 05-16-2008, 10:40 PM

Hi ucanbreached -

Although there can be decent historical correlations, no one model is going to be totally accurate, all of the time. The business cycle chart you are referring to shows the peaks and troughs of the economic cycle, and sometimes the market does not move hand in hand with the economic cycle. But your point is taken.

That said, there will be good buying opps and selling opps within that cycle - of course acting on them is easier said than done.

**McDuck** · 07-10-2008, 09:45 PM

Tom, What do you think about being 100% F-fund for the rest of July?

**tsptalk** · 07-10-2008, 10:35 PM

Bonds have held up better than I thought, but with the rate cuts over and rate hikes (or the threat of them) in the air, it should keep a drag on the bond market, in my opinion. They are good for days when there's a run for quality, but the rallies "should not" last too long.

**lindalyc** · 07-12-2008, 01:37 AM

Tom:
Quote from "Bear Market Rules Apply"by Carl Swenlin (January 18, 2008)
"The questions remain as to how far down prices will go and how long the bear market will last? In the shorter term we have a minimum downside projection from the double top neckline of about 1160 on the S&P 500 Index. That could mark a medium-term low from which a bear market rally could rise...." (http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotli...0118_bear.html)

I look at daily, weekly and monthly, couldn't see the "double top neckline of 1160" he mentioned above. where is the double tops and 1160 came from?

thanks

**tsptalk** · 07-12-2008, 04:13 AM

Originally Posted by lindalyc

I look at daily, weekly and monthly, couldn't see the "double top neckline of 1160" he mentioned above. where is the double tops and 1160 came from?

thanks

The projection below the break of the neckline is equal to the distance from the peak to the neckline. So 1575 to 1375 = 200 pts. 1375 - 200 = 1175. He says 1160 so perhaps he is using the first peak in the double top.

I hope that helps...

**lindalyc** · 07-12-2008, 04:00 PM

many thanks, Tom.
I overlooked then word "Projection...."

**RPM** · 08-11-2008, 05:30 PM

Tom:

I have another favor to ask. Would it be possible to have a direct link to the Automatic Tracker from the message board? As I read the members' discussion on their moves, it would be great to be able to go there directly. Right now, I have to go back out to the home page, then click on tracker. You already have the message board link from the tracker page, which is absolutely great.

Thanks for keeping on improving the site and maintaining the forum for us. BTW, on the tracker, what do (ps) and (pm) stand for?

Thanks again

**tsptalk** · 08-11-2008, 05:40 PM

Originally Posted by RPM

Tom:

I have another favor to ask. Would it be possible to have a direct link to the Automatic Tracker from the message board? As I read the members' discussion on their moves, it would be great to be able to go there directly. Right now, I have to go back out to the home page, then click on tracker. You already have the message board link from the tracker page, which is absolutely great.

Thanks for keeping on improving the site and maintaining the forum for us. BTW, on the tracker, what do (ps) and (pm) stand for?

Thanks again

I'll take a look to see how easy that will be.

pm = premium member
ps = premium service