Market Talk

[Spaf]

I'm still continuing my thinking of "Lost Dog / Lost Market"

We had a very strong market correction at the start of the year, so strong that it stalled the market. At the current time the market is moving sideways not showing any primary movement trend. There is no indication of a bear or a bull. The market cannot get a restart from the earnings and the sentiment.Crude oil prices seem to be on the rise, and investors are watching and waiting.

I folded on Thursday requesting 100%G.

Attached is a S&P char of where we are at.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[smine]

I too, selling 90% I at a small loss only to see it balloon today.....that's the way my January has gone :)

[Rod]

smine wrote: I too, selling 90% I at a small loss only to see it balloon today
Of course it did, with the US Markets closed.;) I made the comment on Thursday that today should be a good day for (I). From my experience, the foreign markets usually do well when the US Markets are closed. Go figure...:D

God Bless:^

Rod wrote: smine wrote: I too, selling 90% I at a small loss only to see it balloon today
Of course it did, with the US Markets closed.;) I made the comment on Thursday that today should be a good day for (I). From my experience, the foreign markets usually do well when the US Markets are closed. Go figure...:D

God Bless:^
Couldn't do anything about the I today, so when it's down tomorrow, it's a wash. :)

[grandma]

When we put in any requests on Friday, before noon est, didn't that mean that was for Tuesday? ...that it didn't/doesn't matter what the mkt did today (monday), that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?

:dah: I am missing something here in understanding - :*



( :zzmy brain ???)

[Spaf]

1. grandma wrote:
that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?


Been out of town. But I thought the folks at TSP would put a notice up of being closed on a particular day?

2. A down first week is not much of an indicator for the rest of the year. Therefore, if the first week of the market winds up down since the close of 2004, it does not mean that we will have a down year for all of 2005. In fact, what the historical record shows is that we have a 50/50 chance of a down year for 2005. Now, wasn't that helpful?

I was reading some of the information at briefings.com and Igot the impression that we have bull markets, bear markets, and neutral markets.

Rgds all! :cool: Spaf

[grandma]

Spaf wrote:

1. grandma wrote:
that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?


But I thought the folks at TSP would put a notice up of being closed on a particular day?

They did. So when they said they would calculate on Tuesday, didn't that mean they ignored whatever happened Mnday? ..that it didn't matter what the Mkt did on MOnday?

[Spaf]

As far as I know. The returns would be updated. Just their processing would skip a day i.e., transfers, etc. You just have to stay in Dodge another day. Some of the mutual fund companies don't like trading at all, unless you get with their high fee trading department. I've looked at a few trading firms and have established an account with Scottrade, because of their low fees and rather simplicity. I've recently liquidated my accounts with investing folks and will be setting up mirrow funds to TSP with Scottrade. This day to get out of Dodge 1 to 2 maybe 3 days to effect a transfer is a bummer.
When the market is in this sort or neutral state as it is now. I get defensive with my funds and goneutral to! I don't gamble onmaybe up, maybe down. I'll play the primary movements bear or bull. I don't gamble neutral!

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[Mike]

Spaf wrote:

I was reading some of the information at briefings.com and Igot the impression that we have bull markets, bear markets, and neutral markets.

Rgds all! :cool: Spaf

Would the neutral markets refer to the Swiss? :l

[Spaf]

Mike wrote: Would the neutral markets refer to the Swiss? :l

I really don't know what neutral markets refer to! A new term, maybe sideways. But Swiss, yes indeed, your cheese could be intact or it could be full of holes!

I think I'll plan for a hot crockpot full of chili next week while my funds are safely in the G fund. If there is an advance, I'll add a jalepeno for good luck!

My guro is in jail (M.S.) so no insider trading for me! None, nada, zip.

Rgds :) Spsf

grandma wrote: When we put in any requests on Friday, before noon est, didn't that mean that was for Tuesday? ...that it didn't/doesn't matter what the mkt did today (monday), that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?

:dah: I am missing something here in understanding - :*



( :zzmy brain ???)

Grandma, my take on the I fund is this: since the US markets were not open yesterday but the foreign markets were, whatever happened in the foreign markets will serve as a "futures type indicator" for the I fund. If futures are up, we have a higher open, if down, we have a lower open. Since apparently the foreign markets were up yesterday, the I should open higher than it closed on Friday. But this really only matters if we were able to trade "instantenuously" (sp?). Since we aren't, we have to wait to see what happens to today.

The I fund is not a foreign fund, it is a US market fund that "tracks" foreign markets. Since US markets where not open yesterday, there was no activity in the I fund. No money made, no money lost. Put your mind at ease................

Have fun.

TT

[learning]

Of course it did, with the US Markets closed.;) I made the comment on Thursday that today should be a good day for (I). From my experience, the foreign markets usually do well when the US Markets are closed. Go figure...:D

God Bless:^


Well now I have a new idea to work with. Thanks. All we will have to do is watch how TSP works the post and then we can decide when to transfer money to the I fund. Perhaps for a Monday you have to be in Friday or something. Or for a Friday you have to be in on Thursday. This is something I will watch. Perhaps give it a try. Small first and bigger latter if it looks really good. When you have good cards you put more on the table. Never know though the other player could have a royal flush to your straight flush. Translation. Becareful and know your risk.

[Spaf]

Hey learning!

We talked about this before. Its like the song. Ya got to know when to hold them, you got to know when to fold them, when to walk away, and when to run!

Have a good one! :D Spaf

[tsptalk]

FYI -

For the last 8 days in a row, the market has been up one day, down the next.

IBM and Yahoo! report earnings after the close tonight.

[Cinderella]

grandma wrote: When we put in any requests on Friday, before noon est, didn't that mean that was for Tuesday?

Hi Grandma, If you requested an interfund transfer on Friday before noon est, you should get Friday's COB TSP share price. Your TSP account should be updated on Tuesday because the TSP office was closed on Monday.

[Spaf]

The uncertainty of troubling investments.

As a novice investor and a member of the thrift savings plan, I wanted to expand my picture of the market. What happened to the rather steady gains of the 19th century? What does the word risk mean to the investors. Is the reality of risk the same today as it was in the preceeding century?

In the last half of the 19th century, as researched, the stock market generally rose on a steady incline year after year. The S&P peaked in March of 2000 at about 1553. Since that period, the market seems to have lost the rhythm for buy and holding. In the last five years there have been few points of investing with any certainty of gains. May 03 to Feb 04 was a good bull period, and Nov 04 through Dec 04 was another good bull period. Gains could have been madein a few months preceeding these dates, however the bull movement was not confirmed.

I don't know of anyone who wakes up and tries to get in trouble by losing money. Trouble has a way of finding investors, especially whendealing with uncertainty. So I offer the following chart of the S&P for the last 5 years. Outside of the dates above, trouble has with few exceptions followed the market of the 20th century. That is to find a period of buying low and selling high, knowing where the market was positioned, and the primary movement being bullish.

The question really is, does the market offer an opportunity for financial growth and from what perspective (buy & hold, timers, traders, etc). When someone says the market has a average growth of 13%. What time period are they referring about?

TSP has a lot of participants that are in the G fund strictly. Well, maybe now I know, the G fund is trouble free, no uncertainty there.

[teknobucks]

sell into this rally folks....:^

Spaf wrote: The uncertainty of troubling investments.

As a novice investor and a member of the thrift savings plan, I wanted to expand my picture of the market. What happened to the rather steady gains of the 19th century? What does the word risk mean to the investors. Is the reality of risk the same today as it was in the preceeding century?

In the last half of the 19th century, as researched, the stock market generally rose on a steady incline year after year. The S&P peaked in March of 2000 at about 1553. Since that period, the market seems to have lost the rhythm for buy and holding. In the last five years there have been few points of investing with any certainty of gains. May 03 to Feb 04 was a good bull period, and Nov 04 through Dec 04 was another good bull period. Gains could have been madein a few months preceeding these dates, however the bull movement was not confirmed.

The 20th century wasn't too bad either. Buahahahahahahah

[teknobucks]

http://tinyurl.com/6dfk3

Morning Doji Star Bullish
looks like a classic example developing this week.........SEll into this!!!!
be all G fund by fri. morning.

[teknobucks]

don't get stuck in the headlights! LOL

http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf

[Timer]

teknobucks wrote: sell into this rally folks....:^What does sell into a rally mean?

[Mike]

I think he means that you should dump shares as the prices rise.

[Ragin Cajun]

I think what Tekno means by"selling into a rally" is ride the rally, but get off sooner rather than later. IOW, when most people think we'll rally the rest of the week, be out before the end of the week.

I'm a bit nervous this week too. My gut tells me the mood will be good through inauguration day. TheStreet will like what Bush says Thursday, but Friday, some of the euphoria will wear off. I think by the end of January, we'll be close to where we are now or lower.

Been a bit disappointed with the I fund, and I have no idea on whether to keep current 50I 30S 20C allocation. Any suggestions?

If Wednesday morning is way up, I might pullout and just wait through the weekend.

Rajun Cajun

[Spaf]

Hey Timer! I think Tekno means to buy into the upturn. But, will have to let him explain the "sell" wording?

The upturn in the past few day is good! We seem to be going forward, and not in reverse. However, the correction was very steep. And in my opinion, untill the previous higher high is passed we can't say the bull market is reestablished. Since the I fund is still down I'll do a transfer this PM to 30G, 30C, and 40S, and see what the AM market shows for tomorrow (a stay or cancel).

Whether this party is a real dinner or just a box of C-rations, ??

Rgds, [:-x] :? Spaf

[Mike]

Both IBM and Yahoo exceeded wallstreet expectations on their earnings reports which were released after the closing bell yesterday. :^

I agree that this is a rally that you will be selling into..sooner or later. I said last week that I felt we were bound to rally this week and see a downturn again next week (probably around the middle to end of next week). Well this is the rally. Hallelujah. However, the dollar is taking its time in rising so I haven't switched out of the I fund yet. Once it crosses 83.6, I'll switch to S for a week or so..then late next week start moving more into G.

However, if I were allowed only one allocation for this year...an allocation that I'd have to stay with till Dec 31...I think, at this point,I'd go 50%G 50% I.

[Dakota]

If this is a short rally I think I'll be riding 50c 50s, Still too scared of the I and think the s fund has more potential

[teknobucks]

Timer wrote: teknobucks wrote: sell into this rally folks....:^What does sell into a rally mean?
reduce your exposer to stocks as they rise in price....move into g or f.

sell the resistance...buy the support.

****do the opposite of what kudlow andkramer say on the talking heads show (CNBC) ....LOL

[teknobucks]

shifting moreinto the I fund with this stronger dollar (rflmao) may be a sweet move now.

jmho:cool:

[Spaf]

Spaf wrote: I'll do a transfer this PM to 30G, 30C, and 40S, and see what the AM market shows for tomorrow (a stay or cancel).

Whether this party is a real dinner or just a box of C-rations, ??
Woops! C-rations, canceling transfer!

[teknobucks]

delima for Fed :shock:


Fed has decided to raise rates on Feb and March meetings despite the factit may hurt economic recovery down the road. So theboyz use the inflation threat as a back up reason. Now both PPI and CPI show no sign of inflation?

Now if Fed isto raise rate to 2.75% at Feb/March meeting, do you think the 10 year bond yeild can stay at 4.2%? HELL NO....by no means.

March is going to be a very interesting month. It happened to be the low month of 1935. Coincidence?

This damn market is runningon the script ofthe 1929 dj....history repeats itself!!!


Tekno

plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....

long in march=major risk!!!!!:s

[teknobucks]

That Smell

...The past 4 years we've seen NET JOB LOSS folks...

...The (falsely deflated) extremely low interest rates have provided the 'jobless' recovery...

...and in the Process built up HUGE DEBT levels and exacerbated the Trade Imbalance...

We are STILL 'rewarding' Major companies for LEAVING the USA...the music is still playing...

http://www.its.caltech.edu/~yel/Fire.html :D

As long as they continue to 'SCARE' the public...people will continue to buy Bonds vs. Stocks and keep downward pressure on Mortgage rates...

Fed rates are upping to combat inflation...but the 10yr 'yield' drives the mortgage rates.

They won't allow the 'golden goose' -a.k.a. residential real estate, to be COOKED...it may simmer 'somewhat' with 25% of mortgages on Vari-rate, and those get pinched!

******theQuestion is...For HOW LONG???

I say 2007....JMHO though.

[Citizen]

So, you're saying the entire economy is about to collapse, that it will start on Friday?

[grandma]

teknobucks wrote:
plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....

long in march=major risk!!!!!:s
Techno - have you already moved from the 46, 27, 27 c,s,i, respectively?

[teknobucks]

Citizen wrote: So, you're saying the entire economy is about to collapse, that it will start on Friday?
no in 2007the markets will correct big time:^ LOL

jmho

[teknobucks]

grandma wrote: teknobucks wrote:
plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....

long in march=major risk!!!!!:s
Techno - have you already moved from the 46, 27, 27 c,s,i, respectively?
no:@...was tied up yesterday am and did not get the order in in time.

hope for a green day thur to sell into. will leavemy usual 7% in each stock fund...rest in G

good luck 2 all!

[teknobucks]

teknobucks wrote: Citizen wrote: So, you're saying the entire economy is about to collapse, that it will start on Friday?
no in 2007the markets will correct big time:^ LOL

jmho


http://www.mte.net.au/futurewatch/id14.htm

all my trading buddies that follow this forecasting tool (term used loosely) seem to think mar 2005 thru aug 2005 will be a rough spot. then up up up till 2007.

fwiw

tekno

[teknobucks]

BUT....and this is a BIG BUT!!!!

do not take advise from me......i'm an old burnt out air controller.

following this 1929 v. 2000 naz model has made some $$$ for me over the last year. if she continues to follow the model i will be pinching myself to death. LOL

[ou81200]

Teckno---

FWIW, I went from 100% G today to 50%C and 50% S effective tomorrow. I plan for this to be a one day venture.:?

I'm hoping for that elusive deat kitty bounce.

teknobucks wrote:
all my trading buddies that follow this forecasting tool (term used loosely) seem to think mar 2005 thru aug 2005 will be a rough spot. then up up up till 2007.

fwiw

tekno


Tekno,

If Mar thur Aug is the rough spot...what was the forecast for Jan 05?

Tuxx

[smine]

Ditto that. Either I find a better plan or just stay in G to keep from giving up my hard earned cash :( Hadn't done this bad since before that great Dec. run. Now I am about gun shy. Any good news forcast? Discouraging this year.

[learning]

Oh my word. I am slowly starting to move out of my shell. It may even pay off a little. I put a little out of the G fund to put into the C and S fund. Nothing to brag about mind you. Just enough to make it easier to see what happens in my account. I saw that it was starting bad and I changed. Trying to buy low and sell high for a change. Hope with the presidents swearing in the market will rally some. It goes up a day and then down. I will jump out tommorow and have been in for a day. No real pain though if I lose.

Now me, the future is something to worry about in the next several years. Why? Hey people will be taking their money and going home. Yes, we call it retiremtent. People will start putting their money in a safe place. Don't risk what you can not afford to lose.

The big chance that it could go the other way. Social Security. Yea let that go into the stock market. I suspect alot of people will move money quickly. Best way to be assured you get something. Plus, you would do better then just leaving it in Social Security's little hands. Congress would not like it. They could not spend it. People would come to see the light and more money yet would go in. Snow ball would grow.:^

The market sold off today because of the inauguration tomorrow. If nothing happens tomorrow, the rallly will continue. Sorry Techno, you're wrong.

Good thing is, the last of the bears just sold today. Time for some "green" as someone would say!

[Spaf]

tsptorture......I hope you are right. I would like to see our bull market back!

Since the first of the year, after the correction, the market has not given a clear indication of a primary movement (bull or bear) other than to move sideways with ups and downs. We are sort of in the clouds. The S&P price of about 1180 was my short (sell) position. I thought the advance of yesterday and the day before was a good signal, but I was wrong, and had to cancel my transfer this AM. My position at present is one of fund preservation till I see the market presenting opportunities for gains. I'm sitting in the G-fund, waiting.

Rgds, and I hope it gets green! :) Spaf

[teknobucks]

tsptorture wrote: The market sold off today because of the inauguration tomorrow. If nothing happens tomorrow, the rallly will continue. Sorry Techno, you're wrong.

Good thing is, the last of the bears just sold today. Time for some "green" as someone would say!

hope u r right also.....i'm stuckfully invested with my tsp in stox.:shock:

just think i missed the boat not going into G on tues. had thought this week would of had more to the upside.:(

[teknobucks]

damage:

http://tinyurl.com/4upvv



http://tinyurl.com/58oyj



http://tinyurl.com/4xmwv



plus everyone bought the election and seems to be selling theinauguration....:shock:

[Spaf]

teknobucks wrote: just think i missed the boat not going into G on tues. had thought this week would of had more to the upside.:(

I enjoy Ur posts tekno! But, it's been so cloudy how would you have found the boat without foresight of hindsight? We all have thoughts, but no crystal balls. Hang in there my friend. The G-fund takes no losses!

I still want to see a clear primary market direction! Not this stuff we have seen since the first of January! Could be wrong, but I see the current market as a runway full of FOD. Too risky for my TSP funds!

Rgds, enjoy! :) Spaf

[Mike]

Until the market establishes a trend, we're in for a bumpy ride. I hope that ride is upward, but I'm getting concerned.

At least Buffet came out and said the dollar is a long-term downer. Hopefully the currency traders listen to him and boost the I fund. :^

[Spaf]

Mike wrote: Until the market establishes a trend, we're in for a bumpy ride. I hope that ride is upward, but I'm getting concerned.

Ain't we all. I don't see any direction in this up and down trend. What to do? Don't know right now, except, to park funds and wait and see. I wouldn't recommend parking under the F-fund tree where some bird could poop on your airplane.

[teknobucks]

happy inauguration day......:u

http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/scp/viewer/index_new2.php?client_id=1172&event_id=14994

[teknobucks]

FEARLESS SHORT-TERM MARKET FORECAST: The Market Takes A Nap --
By Tobin Smith

The cold is here, the snow is billowing and I’m hunkered down for
a cold winter's nap. Just like the market.

It is taking the two to three weeks I thought it might to get the
earnings news out that we expect will give the market enough juice
to break free of the heavy gravitational pull of low-conviction
buyers.

Sam Collins, our head technician, says it pretty darn well this
morning in his technical analysis missive:

“Yesterday was a very good day for the indexes as advances led
declines on both the NYSE and Nasdaq by 2-to-1 in reaction to
excellent earnings from stocks in a number of sectors.

"A good reaction to good news is always welcome, especially when
accompanied by daily reversals. And we saw strong daily reversals
on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq, the Russell
2000 and others.

"This sort of reaction is just what the doctor ordered and sets
the markets up for an attack on overhead resistance that has
accumulated for the last three weeks. The Dow, especially, did
well as it reversed off of a decline of over a hundred points at
the end of the first hour of trading to close up 70 points. The
markets have been oversold for several weeks and this positive
reaction to good news will bring things back to more normal
values.

"Now it will be crucial for the rally to continue in the face of
the continued good news that came after the close with the
excellent report from Yahoo (YHOO).

"Technically yesterday's reversal on the Dow is the third in the
last week and establishes 10,400-10,450 as a very important
support zone as it both held there and closed above the cluster of
moving averages at 10,600. It is time again to do some buying with
the expectation that this rally will continue long enough to
reward traders with some short-term gains and maybe even provide
long-term investors with some bargains.”

Well, so much for the Yahoo! good news for today carrying the
market.

This is now a patience-testing market. The strong numbers for Q1
forecasts we see from our most recent Alliance sales pipeline
survey are coming in slowly, so you still have some time to make
sure your money is working BEFORE the pessimism reverts to
optimism.

Sometimes the market is ALL about patience -- this is one of those
times.

Toby

[learning]

I have noticed thatwhen the market does bad,theF fund seems to do better.I have none in it. However, The G and the F funds are the only two up for the month.

[tsptalk]

Hey! After a big down opening, we're starting to see some green.Was this morning capitulation day? :)

[Spaf]

tsptalk wrote: Was this morning capitulation day? :)
Not capitulation! Haven't given up. Just taking a strategic repositioning of forces (sitting in the G fund with a cup of coffee, watching the whipsaws go by).

See what the folks at briefings.com had to say for today:

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm

Rgds :) Spaf

[teknobucks]

GEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZ!:@

http://chart.tradesignal.com/chartheft/image.asp?id=1193787&w=900&h=600&t=1

come on BOUNCE B#####!!!:?

[Citizen]

Was this morning capitulation day? :)

It was for me. Bunkered down in G this morning.

[teknobucks]

looks like the shorts may be covering now.....chatter on trading boards indicates such.

hell even a trader will big ones gets fidgetty after a nice selloff.:P

tekno

wish i had money in the g to move into stox:dah:



http://tinyurl.com/4xqcf

[Citizen]

looks like the shorts may be covering now.....chatter on trading boards indicates such.

Does this mean that the people who short sell the market no longer think that they can make money by shorting the market?



wish i had money in the g to move into stox:dah:






Didn't you recently say to be out of the Market by Friday? (I'm not challenging you, I'm just trying to understand.) So you thought that the market would be up this week, and you would move Friday to protect those gains? Now the fact that the market has been flat gives you reason to wish you were in a position to ride it back up.

Do I understand it right?

[tsptalk]

Citizen wrote: looks like the shorts may be covering now.....chatter on trading boards indicates such.

Does this mean that the people who short sell the market no longer think that they can make money by shorting the market?

Yes. Profit taking on the short side. Bears (the ones that short) know that it can turn fast and when you combine buying and short covering, that's when you see big reversals. But it sure didn't happen today.

[Rolo]

Spaf wrote: We all have thoughts, but no crystal balls.
Ah! But I have a Magic 8-Ball and it says that we will "Most likely" have a rally by February.

It also told me to not let up on my I Fund position a couple of weeks ago.

The sneaky thing says to "Ask later" to moving to G in February. I guess the oracle is tired now and must rest until then.

:D



I wonder if this will resemble 2004.

[teknobucks]

Citizen
Idid not get out in time....no rally later in theweek 2 sell in to.



Posted: Wed Jan 19th, 2005 02:48 pm





grandma wrote: [/b]teknobucks wrote:
plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....

long in march=major risk!!!!!:s
Techno - have you already moved from the 46, 27, 27 c,s,i, respectively?
no:@...was tied up yesterday am and did not get the order in in time.

hope for a green day thur to sell into. will leavemy usual 7% in each stock fund...rest in G

good luck 2 all!

[Citizen]

Thanks for letting me pick your brain. Old traffic controller,huh? So that means that you can pick the pattern out of chaos, right? I bet that's a handy skill.

[Skip]

G fund looks like the best bet for awhile....
Missed the 12:00 so its friday before I can get out.. Might work out as 2 big selloff days, might get that dead cat bounce..

Looking at the sp500 chart we might pull down to 1155 if
we don't bounce off of 1170... It don't look pretty..

Skip

Mike wrote: Until the market establishes a trend, we're in for a bumpy ride. I hope that ride is upward, but I'm getting concerned.

At least Buffet came out and said the dollar is a long-term downer. Hopefully the currency traders listen to him and boost the I fund. :^

I've heard that one of Buffets "strongest" weaknesses is his moves on currencies!

Hey Teckno, when should we sell into this "rallly"?

[Spaf]

Market conditions researched as respecting the market (and TSP).

Primary market movement is not identified; correction was too strong.
CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicators are negative since Jan 01 (-0.1 to -0.2) for S&P.
Investors are nervous, sentiment is cautious; general talk.
Advances/rallys have no support, but, no big sell off is anticipated; per analysist.
Forecast is for choppy conditions; news.
Feelings are not bearish, but not bullish, rather neutral; ratings.

MHO: Exit strategy on selected stop. Conserve resources for better opportunity.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[pyriel]

OK... What is the outlook for next week. This week is a bummer.

[Spaf]

pyriel wrote: OK... What is the outlook for next week. This week is a bummer.

pyriel....I don't know! Please remember that I follow "The Dow Theory" and the theory doesn't address the current market since the first of January. I'm basically flying IFR in the clouds (in the G fund). This marketis now an unknown. And, has lost some gains.I have no indicators excapt that the money is flowing out of the market (RE: CMF for the S&P500). I decided to sit in the G-fund for now, waiting to see what happens, however indications were not, were not good??

Rgds :) Spaf

[Mike]

The S&P fell back toward the 1175 level. Ideally, it'll plunge toward 1167 in today's early trading (dumb money), scare off the fence riders, and then rally strongly.

Since we're back in the trading range market, I see no point in dumping shares after two down days. A big rally might be coming... then again, it might not. If it doesn't, I don't see much more downside risk in the short term. We'll probably just keep bouncing around.

The I fund is now below $15 per share for the first time in over a month. That's making me nervous, but since I bought in at $15.06 and $15.09, I'm nowhere near my paper losses suffered in the S fund... :shock:

[teknobucks]

tsptorture wrote: Mike wrote: Until the market establishes a trend, we're in for a bumpy ride. I hope that ride is upward, but I'm getting concerned.

At least Buffet came out and said the dollar is a long-term downer. Hopefully the currency traders listen to him and boost the I fund. :^

I've heard that one of Buffets "strongest" weaknesses is his moves on currencies!

Hey Teckno, when should we sell into this "rallly"?

well my timing was off this week....knew to get out and did not "think and act now" earlier in the week when i should of!:dah:

my plan: today or next week (if and when she shows a good green morning) i'm out....going 7% c 7% s 7%i ( perhaps a bit more in I) rest in g fundASAP.:^

after a few more trades i want to be out by end of feb at the latest....plan to do the "go away in may" two months early this year...LOL

tekno

[teknobucks]

an active trader who is right about 70% of the time wrote this today:

Ya don't want to get too carried away on the bounce, cuz its going to be as pathetic as the last ones. yesterday we slipped through the 10 week uptrend line, don't worry we'll retest that and fall right through that finally coming to rest at NDX 1450-1460 maybe Weds. or Thurs. next week. They'll continue to contract those price earnings multiples until the market becomes a buy, in other words when upside risk outweighs downside risk. This should be next week around NAZ 1970, but with bad news might be NAZ 1872. 38 bucks is the original triple top breakout on the q's, watch for sellers to reenter the market around that level.

and another traders thoughts:

I am thinking this will be the month of the shorts not the year of the shorts but I could be wrong.The next week IMHO will determine that.

one more:

what percentage pullback are we at on the overall s&p, just curious. i know it couldnt be just 5 percent or so or if it was than i dont think all the bears would be acting like we are tanking. so i must be wrong about it being 5%. with the talk from the bears we must be 15% from the december high. all kidding aside, please stop with the overexagerations. all those charts and trading systems have been burning most of you since march 11 2003. just use pullbacks to buy, how many chances to you want. anyone making money on the shortside and covering at the right time good job, but for the permabears give up







************ premarket trading GE is at 36.00 that's up +.63
and on strong volume:D

[teknobucks]

A "must watch" on Friday's NBR:

check here for your time zone and local channel:

www.nbr.com (http://www.nbr.com)






Robert Morrow will be on Nightly Business Report on PBS (Friday, 21). He is a "must watch" in my opinion. He is a market technician and has a proprietary mathematical tool related to wave theory. I recall that in his early days he was a mechanical engineer and has numerous patents (perhaps related to vibration analysis).

I last saw Morrow on NBR in early in 2004, during which he predicted a low for the Naz of about 1,800 (which sort of pissed me off at the time because the market was much higher then) followed by a high of 2,400 just as the Naz re-enters a Bear phase. Here is a link I found regarding an NBR interview with him (article dated June 21, 2004):

http://www.thetechbriefing.com/issues/TTB_062104.pdf (http://www.thetechbriefing.com/issues/TTB_062104.pdf)

Use the search tool to find his name once you open the PDF. Here is an excerpt from that article:

"Analysts K.C. Grainger and Bob Morrow, while continuing to be bullish about the tech recommendations they've made in past columns, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Yahoo! (YHOO), and Qualcomm (QCOM), believe those stocks, among others, will suffer brutal declines in the not-too-distant future. They believe that, as in the past, the spectacularly performing tech sector cannot help but decline sharply in the expected S&P 500 bear market."

" 'We will have to change horses soon,' says Morrow. 'The tech horses should lose their power a bit later this year. You certainly cannot complain about the performances that the tech stocks have given us, but the end is in sight.' "

I also found this link on SI. It is an earlier transcript of an NBR interview on 03/12/04:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=19912003 (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=19912003)

During that interview, Morrow states:

"Well, I think the bull market is going to extend on into October this year [2004]. That will be the end of the bull market. The numbers I'm looking for on the Dow are 12,615; the NASDAQ Composite 2,378; and the S&P 1,345. That's the end of the bull market, in my view."

Is he right about the "end" of Da Bull and not so right on the numbers? He was very close on predicting the low of the Nasdaq.

[teknobucks]

tsp order in:

*****position changeto 37%g ......21% in c,s, and i.

tekno

teknobucks wrote: tsp order in:

*****position changeto 37%g ......21% in c,s, and i.

tekno



Why not post this in member allocations?Great..I see u did. :)

[Ragin Cajun]

Tekno,

What were you in before this change? (just to see which direction you're going)

Rajun Cajun

ZFW :cool:

[teknobucks]

rajun cajun wrote: Tekno,

What were you in before this change? (just to see which direction you're going)

Rajun Cajun

ZFW :cool:

all stox! and taking a beating!

tekno

ex-zla:D

[Mike]

Me too... :*

[Show-me]

Greenspan against faster rate hikes - BusinessWeek
Fri Jan 21, 2005 11:10 AM ET
NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is comfortable with the current measured pace of U.S. interest rate hikes and does not favor a more aggressive policy, a report in the online version of BusinessWeek magazine said on Friday.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=73 95610

Will rethink my decision on going G.

[Citizen]

what percentage pullback are we at on the overall s&p, just curious.
If I'm figuring it right, S&P closed at 1211.92 on 31 DEC 2004 and a couple of minutes ago it was at 1168.86 which is a contraction of 3.5%.

[Timer]

I've been 100% F for almost a week. I picked up two pennies yesterday. Even when there' s no gain in the F, at least I'm not taking a beating in 'stox'. There IS a time to retreat to bonds. You know February is going to be more of the same. Find a place (G or F) till March-ish and stop the bleeding. :P

[pyriel]

Timer wrote: I've been 100% F for almost a week. I picked up two pennies yesterday. Even when there' s no gain in the F, at least I'm not taking a beating in 'stox'. There IS a time to retreat to bonds. You know February is going to be more of the same. Find a place (G or F) till March-ish and stop the bleeding. :P
I agree with you Timer but the stox are so cheap right now that those who hasn't received any beating by being in the G or F will be buying a steal. The only question is when to get in and how long do they need to stay...

I got my butt whipped Wed, Thur, Fri and moved 50g 50f today. Those who stayed really have an iron stomach. I've just ran with my tail tucked in between my legs. I'm bleeding but i'll heal to fight another battle.

Good luck to you all and let's all relax for the weekend...

[Rod]

Timer wrote: Find a place (G or F) till March-ish and stop the bleeding. :P
I've got my "tourniquet" in place...;) Staying in and fight'n like a dawg!:cool:

[Spaf]

The declines have not indicated a bottom as of yet. The CMF indicators for the S&P 500 show -0.2 for money flow. The market could turn bearish in the primary movement, referencing 12-30 HH of 1213 and the 01-18 LH of 1195. Still to cloudy to confirm the movement. Got to find the bottom, whever it might be.

Rgds :) Spaf

[grandma]

Mike?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/avatars/272.jpg

Is that you Mike?

;)

[Mike]

Indeed it is. :shock:

[grandma]

Mike wrote: Indeed it is. :shock:
Very Classy !! :^

You do realize, right?, that you willhave to `mind your p's & q's' henceforth !!! :oo

[coolhand]

teknobucks wrote: delima for Fed :shock:


Fed has decided to raise rates on Feb and March meetings despite the factit may hurt economic recovery down the road. So theboyz use the inflation threat as a back up reason. Now both PPI and CPI show no sign of inflation?

Now if Fed isto raise rate to 2.75% at Feb/March meeting, do you think the 10 year bond yeild can stay at 4.2%? HELL NO....by no means. Tekno,50% of treasuries are held by foreign governments. Doesn't this include 10Y notes? I think it does. If that's true foreign governments can continue to manipulate our domestic market by driving our real estate market in spite of the fed raising interest rates. Short term rates are rising in this environment, but not longer term. The yield is flattening. This is economic warfare. Does this make sense to you or amI off base???
March is going to be a very interesting month. It happened to be the low month of 1935. Coincidence?

This damn market is runningon the script ofthe 1929 dj....history repeats itself!!!
Except this is a global market now. Still doesn't look good though.

Tekno

plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....

long in march=major risk!!!!!:s

[coolhand]

Took me a little while, but here's an article that mentions the fact that 10Y notes are bought by foreign markets. http://www.xak.com/main/newsshow.asp?id=36635

By raising rates the fed can (presumably) contain inflation.But what if foreign governments continue to buy treasuriesregardless ofthe yield and risk? We continue to spend anyway oblivious of our debt situation and the long term negative ramifications itmaypresent?And then what if those governmentsdump those treasuries. Now the market is flooded with dollars and BAM......Inflation.

One final thought. Currency is a source of power.

Counter thoughts anyone?

[Citizen]

One final thought. Currency is a source of power.I read somewhere that one of the major threatsthat China has against the US is that they will allow the Yuan to float against the dollar, rather than actively manipulate it to index the dollar. Suddenly Walmart would cease to be such a bargain.

[coolhand]

Citizen wrote: I read somewhere that one of the major threatsthat China has against the US is that they will allow the Yuan to float against the dollar, rather than actively manipulate it to index the dollar. Suddenly Walmart would cease to be such a bargain.
Since Walmart imports so much of its merchandise from China that wouldbe true. But China is an export driven economy and they would risk a major reduction in exportsto the US. So far they have refused US efforts to get them to delink their currency from the dollar.

If they do delink however, I don't think it would be to our benefit in any event. They have a different agenda. We have been trying to reduce our trade deficit by lowering the value of the dollar, but so far it has not worked because the Yuan is pegged to it. As the dollar devalues so too does the yuan, which effectively keeps their products pouring in from overseas.

I am not implying that any of this will happen, only that it is a possibility. I'mtrying to figure out why the 10Y note is not responding to rate hikes. We had 5 of them last year and as of right now the 10Y note is lower than it was before rates began to rise. There are a lot of things that happen in the economy that are off our radar screen. Lots of what-ifs.The trick is to read between the lines. You can't trust the media or analysts to do it.

This is a strange market right now. :?We're flying in a fog.

[teknobucks]

01/21/05: "Market Monitor"-Frank Cochrane, President of Investment Timing Consultants

PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Robert Morrow, editor of "The Institutional Advisory Service" and publisher of the monthly market letter entitled "The High Tech Growth Forecaster." And Bob, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT."

ROBERT MORROW, EDITOR, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORY SERVICE: Great to be back. Thank you, Paul.

KANGAS: As we`ve noted, the stock market has gotten off to a weak start in 2005 and I`d like to know what you think are the reasons behind this poor performance.

MORROW: Well, there`s some fundamental reasons, high valuation, I think and the run-up, the sharp run-up in prices, but the main reason is it`s time for a major correction in the market now.

KANGAS: And your cycle analysis is responsible for this opinion no doubt.

MORROW: Right. It`s a technical approach. I use cycle analysis in combination with pattern recognition. I call it intense directional determinate. That`s the branding of it.

KANGAS: Well, on your last visit with, your cycle analysis suggested the bull market would be in the topping out process as early as last October and you thought the Dow could make it to 12600. Of course it never got that high but you think it`s topping out nevertheless?

MORROW: Right. The numbers that I have now for that top for the Dow, 11180, the NASDAQ 2242 and the S&P 1267...

KANGAS: So you`ve lowered your top achievements?

MORROW: Exactly, exactly and lengthened them somewhat. I expected these to occur in January.

KANGAS: Now, I know you don`t pay a lot of attention to fundamentals, but I know you read them. What do you think?

MORROW: Well, I think it`s just time. As I said, high valuations and the run-up in the stock market. I mean there`s assorted things out there, the trade deficit, things that worry about.

KANGAS: On your last visit, you also gave us five stocks to buy. Let`s see how they fared. And look it, right at the top, Apple Computer, up a mere 155.8 percent. That was a great call.

MORROW: Thank you.

KANGAS: Are you still with it or have you taken some money off the table?

MORROW: I think now is the time to take money off the table. I`d attach a mental stop-loss to any stock position; 15 percent is a good number to think about.

KANGAS: Below the price?

MORROW: Exactly.

KANGAS: Autodesk did all right, up 8.4 percent. And then, let`s have some of the others you recommended. I believe there were a total of five. Genentech down a bit, although it`s been much higher but, and First Data off just 5 percent, not bad there. And there was one other you recommended, which I believe ended on the plus side, and that`s Qualcomm, a 20 percent gainer. That`s three out of five on the plus side and especially Apple. That was a great call.

MORROW: Thank you.

KANGAS: And I congratulate you on it. Now do you have any new recommendations currently?

MORROW: Yes, in the exchange traded funds, energy.

KANGAS: Energy.

MORROW: Yes.

KANGAS: I think we have the energy spyders, as they call them.

MORROW: Right.

KANGAS: And they`ve moved up rather significantly, but you like to buy on strength, don`t you?

MORROW: Exactly.

KANGAS: All right. And this is one of your favorites but no individual stock now?

MORROW: No, no. I like the diversification of the exchange traded funds.

KANGAS: For good diversification?

MORROW: Yes, indeed.

KANGAS: All right. How about another example that you would buy?

MORROW: That would be the exchange fund for utilities.

KANGAS: OK, the utilities spyders and they also have had quite a run-up and you`re saying that these are going to continue to move higher?

MORROW: Right. And they`re safe stocks for this type of a market, I think.

KANGAS: So very defensive indeed.

MORROW: Indeed.

KANGAS: You have another one?

MORROW: Yes. I think that gold is worth keeping a 5 to 10 percent position in. I think gold has a fair shot at 480, maybe a little bit higher over the 12-month period.

KANGAS: So this goes along with your bearish scenario for the market overall?

MORROW: It`s another defensive tool.

KANGAS: And this street track gold thing is a relatively new one. It represents one-tenth of an ounce of gold as I understand.

MORROW: Right, exactly. It`s a good way to do it.

KANGAS: Bob, do you own any of the stocks that you - that we`ve been mentioning?

MORROW: I only own baskets of stocks and not these specifically.

KANGAS: So in other words, the ETFs, you own those?

MORROW: Right.

KANGAS: OK. Any final words? We just have about 25 seconds left. Any final thoughts for our viewers?

MORROW: Yeah, I think the bear market or the major correction, however you want to call it, will be about 20 percent down over a 12-month period. I think that this is a little bit less than the average bear market of 26 percent. So it`s not as bad as it on average could be.

KANGAS: OK. All right. There we have it. Our time is up but thanks very much for being with us, Bob.

MORROW: Thank you, Paul.

KANGAS: My guest market monitor, Robert Morrow of the "Institutional Advisory Service."

[teknobucks]

anyone thought of taking out a max loan from tsp and buying options with the cash....both puts and calls on say qqqq'sor spiders?

i know this is probably over the top in terms of a strategy .....................but what the hey.

why not consider such????

tekno

wondering how long this f'ing correction will hurt!:shock:

[teknobucks]

$ up,Dow down.$ down,Dow up.

...There's only one thing that seems to be certain: when the dollar is falling, the Dow goes up. When the dollar stabilizes, the Dow stagnates. When the dollar rises, the Dow falls....

....Such has been the case since September 2003 with mind-boggling accuracy - and such is still the case now. The dollar-Dow inversion is alive and well...

http://www.safehaven.com/article-2488.htm (http://www.safehaven.com/article-2488.htm)

[teknobucks]

teknobucks wrote: anyone thought of taking out a max loan from tsp and buying options with the cash....both puts and calls on say qqqq'sor spiders?

i know this is probably over the top in terms of a strategy .....................but what the hey.

why not consider such????

tekno

wondering how long this f'ing correction will hurt!:shock:
oh...should of stated sell the options when they are in the money. do not get greedy just hedge da chit out of um.

[Spaf]

teknobucks wrote: wondering how long this f'ing correction will hurt!:shock:

Could be that it is no longer a correction! :? Spaf

[Mike]

1167 was the next stopping point for the S&P, and we hit that. Time to see if we bounce off it or continue to plunge into the abyss. :shock:

[coolhand]

On Friday oil was blamed for the markets continued drop as it rose again. Whatever. Now we have a N'oreaster in progress. Gee, ya think oil will be up on Monday? Did ya see the futures?

Iraq elections coming up. Fed meets 2 Feb. Market doesn't like uncertainty. Any bounce in the short term will probably be short lived.

[coolhand]

Here we go.................http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,145171,00.html

[teknobucks]

TAX TIME note:

Gottalike trading stocks inyourTSP account it's a lot less work at tax time.:D

None of the mind boggling entries that day trading causes.:X

*********OK Spaf lets start a new weekly thread.....we need tomove onand hopefully up a bit.

tekno

coolhand wrote: On Friday oil was blamed for the markets continued drop as it rose again. Whatever. Now we have a N'oreaster in progress. Gee, ya think oil will be up on Monday? Did ya see the futures?

Iraq elections coming up. Fed meets 2 Feb. Market doesn't like uncertainty. Any bounce in the short term will probably be short lived.

Light Sweet Crude is (in the future markets) up 1.22 to 48.63 at the moment.

[Spaf]

Hi MT! where ya been?

Ok Tekno will start a new weekly thread!

.................................................. ................End............................... .................................