Interfund Transfer Cancelled

[tsptalk]

Another failed rally this morning. I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Looks like 1165 area on the S&P is the next test.

:shock: I hope everyone saw my post below that I cancelled this transaction. I had to run quick and get things out before the deadline. The market gave us a "V" bottom about a half hour before the deadline, that I was hoping to see.

[cowboy]

I am going 100% S today on the hopes of catching a bounce on the S fund. I believe the economic crap that is coming out tomorrow should help the funds, if not well hit the basement soon. I think you call it catching the falling knife. This is a risky play and probably very short term. Good luck everyone!

[Safetyguy]

tsptalk wrote: I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.


Not a bad move -- why not more in the I?

[vectorman]

Hi Cowboy, would you consider starting a 'Cowboy Account' so some of us can follow your progress. I see your allocation post here and there, but it would be nice to have them all in one place. I last observed that you were 100% I, if I didn't miss any other changes. The I is still riding above it's 50 day MA, but the S fund could finishits second day below the its 50 day MA.Whatinformation are you using to make this move. With the dollar falling further today, wouldn't the I fund benefit more from it tomorrow with less risk? Thank you. V-man

[tsptalk]

I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!

[vectorman]

Tom, with the dollar falling sharply today, wouldn't we see a better up side to the I fund, at least in the short term? Thanks

[cowboy]

If your talking to me SafetyGuy. I just see the I fund at this time over the last 5 days as staying steady. Even though it has went up about .12 cents in the last 4 days. Itcan take thatgainin one day very quickly. The S has dropped to a level it may stabilize and I can make some green tomorrow unless it moves to fast on me today. That isthe risk of day trading it in a down market. Ifit does not bounce tomorrow then I will try to recover it some how.:cool:

[Safetyguy]

cowboy wrote: If your talking to me SafetyGuy.
Actually it was a question for Tom (since this is his forum) but just as relevant for you. Thanks for your thoughts.

[pyriel]

S is very low right now and good for buying but the uncertainty of this market made me hesitant to go back in. I was 100i and went 100g today. Thought about going 100s withshare price going from 14.13 to 14.01. If there is a bounce, I would be buying in a high. Will sit this one out and try to get back in tomorrow. If the bounce continues, and looks like everything is a green light, i'll get back in right away. As you all know, I live on Guam and is 3 hours away from Japan, the dollar was beating the yen as of yesterday Wednesday afternoon my time while you guys were sleeping in the mainland which is what made me decide to bail out of I for today. We'll see how that works out.

[teknobucks]

tsptalk wrote: Another failed rally this morning. I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Looks like 1165 area on the S&P is the next test.
perhaps we should of allfollowed this lead....gut tells me couple of soft days still ahead before a major move up.

oh well:h

[tsptalk]

teknobucks wrote: tsptalk wrote: Another failed rally this morning. I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Looks like 1165 area on the S&P is the next test.
perhaps we should of allfollowed this lead....gut tells me couple of soft days still ahead before a major move up.

oh well:h

I hope you saw this post later on...

I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!

[tsptalk]

Safetyguy wrote: tsptalk wrote: I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.


Not a bad move -- why not more in the I?

Safetyguy -
As you may have saw, I cancelled that transaction, but I understand your point. I like the I fund in the short term for a test of the dollar's low but I do believe we are seeing a longer termbottom forming inthe dollar giving theI fundmore obstacles thanthe C fund over the intermediate term.

[smedlap]

Hi everyone. I'm still 100% I and tomorrow we are going to have 55 degree weather in upstate NY. That's strange. Just as strange as this january market. I think a steady hand Coolhand until COBfollowing Friday when the FOMC and other events start to overshadow the market for a prelude to February. Ias Tom thought we would have a far better C, S, I market this January and take a febreuaru run, but so far we have lost 20% of our gains. Fact is, those of us that played the horse the last quarter did so well, it certainly did not hurt. Time to step back and take a clear look. I look at the market with toads and poles. Toads are the FOMC and poles are opportuities. But there are other seasonal natural market trends such as that which Tom posts due to the nature of the market. There is the other realization that the dollar is declining. We have the greatest economy, a fact. But the dollar is declining. A fact! So I say play I fund and the bumps in the road such as FOMC. I plan to retreat toG fund 100% next COB Friday and see how the the playing fielsd matures. Fact is I have stayed I fund and have done just fine not having the time to recently watch your many sage posts. Your comments team A....

tsptalk wrote: I like the I fund in the short term for a test of the dollar's low but I do believe we are seeing a longer termbottom forming inthe dollar giving theI fundmore obstacles thanthe C fund over the intermediate term.

Tom,

I agree that we are testing the dollar's retracement andalso agree that we are likely seeing a longer term bottom forming in the dollar. However, I don't believe the bull resurgence in the dollar is anything more than a short-term spike in the continuing bear market for the dollar. I would be surprised if the dollar surge lasts more than 2-3 months at most. IMHO, we should then return to more dollar declines....

[tsptalk]

saraho wrote: I would be surprised if the dollar surge lasts more than 2-3 months at most. IMHO, we should then return to more dollar declines....

saraho -
I'm just looking at it from a technical analysis perspective. I'm not sure how our economy will effect it but I do know the "normal" range of the dollar index has been between 80 and 100 and it is currently 82. But of course we have seen extreme readings on the high end. As high as 150 going back back 20 years but it onlydipped below80 once for a few weeks back in 1992.

Why do you think the dollar will weaker further? I'm not much of an economist. :dah: Is that a technical reading, or fundamental?

Thanks,
Tom

[Skip]

I see a little strengh in the market and the sp hitsupport at 1175.58" today then bounced to 1187.70 and CLOSED near the high.... This is one of the first days we closed strong !!!! Might be what we are looking for... We need a follow though !!

I moved to 60% g 40% I fund to short the dollar mostly...as we could still move lower...
I will wait until I see a signal to move more to stocks....

Trade did go though today.... as my SS ends in 89 sometines it takes 2 days.
I did buy the I fund 40cents lower than I sold it at 12/31/04:^

Skip

[Skip]

Thats what I did today..... 40% I

Skip

[Skip]

Even the charts look bad for the dollar....

Buying I fund is like shorting the dollar...

Skip

tsptalk wrote: I'm not sure how our economy will effect it but I do know the "normal" range of the dollar index has been between 80 and 100 and it is currently 82. But of course we have seen extreme readings on the high end. As high as 150 going back back 20 years but it onlydipped below80 once for a few weeks back in 1992.

Why do you think the dollar will weaker further? I'm not much of an economist. :dah: Is that a technical reading, or fundamental?

Thanks,
Tom
The U.S. today is the world’s biggest debtor nation. We currently owe$7 trillion and ourdebt continues tosoar.Our trade deficit with other countries is staggering, and to finance this mountain of debt we’ve been flooding the world with dollars. Unless we do something to stop this, and fast, I feel that the inevitable result will be thatthe dollar will decline until it is displaced as the world’s dominant currency. At this point, I see no corrective change on the horizon.Despite the 30% drop in the dollar index from 121 in July 2001 to today’s 83,we have still failed to see a correction inthe huge U.S. trade imbalance. Much of what we need and consume in this country is made abroad. IMHO, it is going to take a much bigger declinebefore there is any hope of closing America’s colossal trade gap. Further, as the U.S. imports more oil and capital goods into this country, the trade deficit will only get larger. This means there will be more dollars sloshing around the globe and monetary expansion will continue unabated. It also meansthe inflationary spiral will continue,as long as the central banks can expand money and credit.

tsptalk wrote: I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!
Tom,

I believe your first instinct was correct.

You can tell we are humans and not animals...we keep putting our hand out to see if the "live wire" is still alive. The animals learn from their mistakes...humans repeat them.

Tuxx

Yesterday gain...poof...

what out for low volume reversals at the close...that is NOT the bottom. That is actually extremely bearish...sorry to go against your commentary.

Do not be one of those "when I get back to even I will bail".

That was a receipe for 2000 that did not work out to well.

Tuxx

[LIG]

Tuxx:

I'm new to this.What should I infer from what you are saying,a total move to G is smart right now?:?

[LIG]

Tom:

I'm sorry if I missed any discussion on this topic...if it ever occurred, but what is the latest on the TSP giving us the ability to make same-day transfers? As I have started following your site and have contemplated making one move or another, I have found it exceedingly difficult to make "crystal ball decisions" due to the 2-day delay. Making a call on a move by itself is difficult enough.:X

[Rod]

Ride it out folks. You KNOW what happens the day after everyone bails...

God Bless:^

[JerBer]

Amen!! This craziness has GOT to stop! This was supposed to be a decent month what with Bush getting reelected and all!

[vectorman]

Take a good hard look at the DJIA chart going back a year; does it speak to you. Most people don't pay much attention to this chart, but it's telling a story and it don't look very pretty.:s

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJIA

[Rolo]

Hmmm. Yes. SPX doesn't look so hot either.

DWCP and EFA look much better; I think the market still favours small cap and international stocks. I do not think the transition is going to happen anytime soon in spite of interest rate hikes. I think that may be that 1. the hikes do not necessarily affect loan rates and 2. interest rates are still hella low with many hikes to go.

So, yes, what I am saying is:

eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeSSSSSSSSSSSSSS SSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! :D



I am 48S/49I/3C thinking of going 60I/30S/10G.

[tsptalk]

LIG wrote: Tom:

I'm sorry if I missed any discussion on this topic...if it ever occurred, but what is the latest on the TSP giving us the ability to make same-day transfers? As I have started following your site and have contemplated making one move or another, I have found it exceedingly difficult to make "crystal ball decisions" due to the 2-day delay. Making a call on a move by itself is difficult enough.:X

Hi LIG -
I don't think I ever heard about them giving us same day transfers. It think it would take a complete overhaul of the system because they don't track the share prices with intra-day moves.

Making day to day calls is tough. Finding those turns is a challenge. It's not for everyone.

Tom

[tsptalk]

Tuxx wrote: tsptalk wrote: I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!
Tom,

I believe your first instinct was correct.

You can tell we are humans and not animals...we keep putting our hand out to see if the "live wire" is still alive. The animals learn from their mistakes...humans repeat them.

Tuxx

You are right. I would have been better off if I hadn't seen that turnaround on Wednesday. Hopefully many of the readers who follow the moves missed that last minute change.

[tsptalk]

Tuxx wrote: Yesterday gain...poof...

what out for low volume reversals at the close...that is NOT the bottom. That is actually extremely bearish...sorry to go against your commentary.

Do not be one of those "when I get back to even I will bail".

That was a receipe for 2000 that did not work out to well.

Tuxx

This is not 2000. It's more like July 2004. Sentiment is very bearish so we will get a rally pretty quick. But it could be a selling opportunity as I believe we are back in consolidation mode, i.e. sell the rallies, buy the pullbacks.

[Mike]

If we're going back into consolidation mode, I'd prefer that the cycles last a few days rather than swing back and forth like this. Then at least I'd have a modest chance of timing this junk.

[Rolo]

ehehehe, Mike, good point.

I am taking the "Deer/Headlight" position.

Any move I make at this point may be cute, but has a greater chance of being WRONG! ...so I leave well enough alone until I havea stark indication otherwise.

[Rod]

Mike wrote: If we're going back into consolidation mode, I'd prefer that the cycles last a few days rather than swing back and forth like this. Then at least I'd have a modest chance of timing this junk.





That's why you just stay put where yer at.;)

[Mike]

That's what I've done (aside from a couple shifts). The market is making me feel punch drunk. :?

[Spaf]

Mike wrote: That's what I've done (aside from a couple shifts). The market is making me feel punch drunk. :?

Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Distribution
Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold.

This is an quote from th The Dow Theory. I don't know if it is the reality. However it is a caution flag. Something to consider.

The lack of investors and the fading market returns tell me that investors are sitting on the sidelines. The decline of S&P below 1180 is a serious correction that could change primary market movements. Therefore, I have elected to park the gains of 2004 into the G- fund until the market shows a clear signal of it's primary movement, bull or bear.

I could be entirely wrong! But, the risk is too great at this point, for me! Better be safe then sorry. There is always another primary movement for the bulls. Right now it's a fog bank that makes flying unsafe/risky. Maybe right, maybe wrong. But not worth the risk, not with a market that can't seem to find itself.

Rgds :) Spaf

[Mike]

How often do we just see a one-stage bull market followed by a decline into a bear market?

Mike wrote: How often do we just see a one-stage bull market followed by a decline into a bear market?
For that matter, how often have we seen January down two years in a row (2002/3) followed by an up year and then down again? (3 of 4 down Januarys) Realizing that January is usually a stellar month, this is quite unusual.

The last time was 1981-82. We were up the next year, 1983,and down the following one...

We seem to be setting up for a similar scenario...(FYI In 1984, Jan was down 1% and the year was up 1%.)

[Rod]

Mike wrote: That's what I've done (aside from a couple shifts). The market is making me feel punch drunk. :?


Hopefully we'll all feel a little better after today. At least we have a break domestically on Monday... may be a good time to be in (I).

God Bless:^

[smine]

That's what I'm thinking too, Rod. International markets aren't on holidayMonday, so I may stay with the I fund. At least it gives a nickelthen takes a nickel ;)

[Rod]

smine wrote: That's what I'm thinking too, Rod. International markets aren't on holidayMonday, so I may stay with the I fund. At least it gives a nickelthen takes a nickel ;)


Yeah, I'll remain 30% in the (I).

[buybest]

Hi Rod-It looks like its going to be a bumpy ride this year. This is getting to be too much. I remember you posted last years returns with 20% in each fund but I can't find it. Can you provide it or direct me to the posting I am really thinking this might be the bestposition until we can see how thenext couple of weeks go.

Thanks In Advance

John

I think its fairly clear at this point that the S fund, as is the norm for January, is THE fund in the headlights during this month. When the bull roars, the S fund leads. When the bear leaves us all scratched up, its the S fund that is taking the brunt of it.

So now we come back to the key question..will the rest of this month be bullish? In a word...I dunno. However, from the looks of it, and from history, I am expecting a mini rally next week in the S fund followed by a finaldownturn for the month in the following week.

I would expect the S fund to be the most negative of the funds by the end of the month, based upon its current course, but I still expect it to be higher than it is now.

SO, I will continue to focus on the dollar in plotting a course for the upcoming weeks. Should a serious dollar rally show legs, I'll be moving more $ into the S fund. However, if the dollar falls, then it should negatively affect both the C and S funds. In that case, I will continue to be (as I currently am) - 100% I.

My guess is that, around the last week inJanuary, all funds should again come under considerable selling pressure. During that time, I'll begin to transition more into the G fund.

[Rod]

buybest wrote: I remember you posted last years returns with 20% in each fund but I can't find it. Can you provide it or direct me to the posting I am really thinking this might be the bestposition until we can see how thenext couple of weeks go.

Thanks In Advance

John



I'm sorry, but I don't recall doing this...:%

Perhaps it was someone else???

[tsptalk]

buybest wrote: I remember you posted last years returns with 20% in each fund but I can't find it. Can you provide it or direct me to the posting I am really thinking this might be the bestposition until we can see how thenext couple of weeks go.
Welcome buybest! I think this is what you are looking for ...

http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html