One more dollar spike?

[Comstock]

Rookie question: is anyone moving out of I fund todayin anticipation of one last spike? Or looking at jumping in heavy I-fund Wednesday in anticipation of the trade figures reducing any gains by the dollar? New guy, here, just starting TSP and learning about how the indices respond to the dollar, oil prices, trade deficits, etc.

Excerpt from 11 JAN article in International Herald Tribune:

Currencies: Dollar's rally vs. euro ends in profit-taking

"Today," said John McCarthy, director of foreign-exchange trading at ING Capital Markets in New York, "we are just recovering from the major dollar rally of last week. We could see one more dollar spike up before the trade figures Wednesday, which will underscore the issues affecting the dollar."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/01/10/business/bux.html

[cowboy]

I moved out of the I fund yesterday! I think it may go down yet some before it goes up again.

[smine]

In my opinion you should follow your intuition as well as the markers out there when it comes to the I fund. When I don't I usually kick myself later. With the 2nd day of dollar dropping against euro and the charts I see from CNN>business>world biz I see everything red, which tells me to jump in; may be sorry later but that's what I doing effective COB tonight. It should be cheaper to buy than the $15.11 it reached last night. Just my opinion.............;)

[smine]

I moved back in today for the reasons you cited.

[pyriel]

I felt the same way yesterday but decided to stay one more day. If the I fund goes down then I don't have any choice but to ride this through. Still 100i.

[pyriel]

pyriel wrote: I felt the same way yesterday but decided to stay one more day. If the I fund goes down then I don't have any choice but to ride this through. Still 100i.
Seemed like my one day extension worked out...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=morenews&guid=%7BB9FA77 C8%2D5E86%2D4F30%2DA779%2D6DEDC801C839%7D

moved to 100g

[Comstock]

Thanks for the feedback, all!:)

Comstock wrote:

Rookie question: is anyone moving out of I fund today in anticipation of one last spike? Or looking at jumping in heavy I-fund Wednesday in anticipation of the trade figures reducing any gains by the dollar?

I'm certainly watching the dollar as a key indicator for the I fund. Since the dollar is near historic lows, I do anticipate a bounce. I'm currently at 100%I If the dollar cuts thru 83.8 on the upside, I'll be lightening up. Rumors are that Bush will announce a spending freeze in the State of the Union, which might help the dollar short-term. Longer term, I'm expecting the dollar to continue its decline.

[teknobucks]

off yahoo news:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=509&ncid=509&e=12&u=/ap/20050118/ap_on_bi_ge/dollar

creeping is the right term.... this is a very slow rise in the dollar.... But again, IMHO, its only moving up within a downward channel....so its a short term upward move but a long term continued down... Until we get inflation, trade, and the deficit under control, the dollar ain't goin' no where...but down...

[Ragin Cajun]

Saraho,

Do you think the President's speech may address those issues...deficit, trade, inflation, thus making the dollar rise a bit in the short term? If that happens, it may be better to stay in the U.S. markets for the next few days.



Rajun Cajun

rajun cajun wrote: Saraho,

Do you think the President's speech may address those issues...deficit, trade, inflation, thus making the dollar rise a bit in the short term? If that happens, it may be better to stay in the U.S. markets for the next few days.



Rajun Cajun

Yes Rajun, I agree.I think the dollar index could rally to 88 or so in the short term (2-3 months). Thus far though its been lackluster, at best. Whenever the dollar is rallying you want to stay out of the I fund.

[Ragin Cajun]

Saw Warren Buffett on TV today. He seemed a bit bearish short term and said as a "buy and hold" investor, he doesn't care about short term corrections/rallies.

He also was bearish on any medium/long term rally in the dollar.

I'm 50I now and will probably keep that. May pull a little out of the C and S Thursday if it is up.

Rajun Cajun

[Mike]

I'm considering an aggressive I fund play if the dollar pushes up to the top of its channel. Hmmmm...

That's an interesting play but two points to consider..

1. We're not there yet. 88 or so should be the top of the channel.

2. If there is a worldwide recession, the I fund will be down also, despite a decline in the dollar...

[Mike]

I like to make interesting plays. :D

[tsptalk]

rajun cajun wrote: Saw Warren Buffett on TV today. He seemed a bit bearish short term and said as a "buy and hold" investor, he doesn't care about short term corrections/rallies.

He also was bearish on any medium/long term rally in the dollar.

The dollar is up about 10% since Buffett's comments. I assume he ishanging on to his position and taking his lumps. I wonder how much he's lost so far, millions or billions?

As long as FOMC keeps up measured pace lanuage.

USD will continue to gain strength. That is where this strength is coming from.

:) Next spike end of June.

Buffett lost 350M last quarter on his currency play.

It will be a lot morethe next quarter he reports his funds results.

:(

[Ragin Cajun]

Tom,

I've been thinking the exact same thing as the $$$ continues its rise. How could Buffett have been so wrong on this?



Paul

Yeah his Pier 1 major share holder thing has worked out just grand huh? Down what 40%?

Taking a 50% hit in KO.

Believe he is distracted by the AIG shell game mess.

I am short his stock. :P Down over 10K in a month - was awesome. :^ One of my best trades of the year. :P

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/b/brk-a