Market Talk

[Spaf]

I left to go home Thursday where the market was in a correction mode. I return to the office area Sunday and the word is that it is still consolidating. Investors are still hesitant.

The hesitation seems to hinge on the feelings of slow earnings growth. Well, I guess we have somewhat of a standoff. The market is staring at investors and visa-versa. I guess we have to see who blinks first! :?

The S&P closed last week at 1186 with four days in the 1180's. Thats holding above the previous higher low of 1177 or there abouts.

Small corrections are good. Large corrections make me nervous.

Still 100% in stocks (30c, 40s, and 30i).

Attached is a chart of the S&P for 6 months with a 50 day moving average.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[Rolo]

Thanks, Spaf!

That makes it not sound so bad. What are your thoughts if it drops below the 50-day Mon or Tue?

[Spaf]

Rolo wrote: Thanks, Spaf!

That makes it not sound so bad. What are your thoughts if it drops below the 50-day Mon or Tue?

Large corrections have the ability to change trends. The 50 day MA is only a trend of the past. We need to see what the next advance brings. If it goes to a higher high the bull is safe. A lower high, we could see a repeat of last year. Thats why the investors are hesitant. Thats why this week should tell the story

My opinion: we have a bull market, but theeconomic factor, oil factor, etc.,etc.,can cause the smart money to make a withdraw, and the market primary movements change. The market has a lot of worries, due to the world we live in.

We got our "W" and the strategy is......................?

Rgds :? Spaf

[teknobucks]

earnings out this week will make this guy romp

[teknobucks]

WEEKLY OUTLOOK, Jan. 10
By Jody Osborne, Optionetics.com
1/10/2005 7:00:00 AM

http://optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=11727 (http://optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=11727)

The first week of 2005 wasn’t exactly kind to the bulls, but this isn’t necessarily a preview of the year to come. Since 1940, when the first week of January has been bearish, the rest of the month has been bullish. In fact, the Dow ($INDU) has gained ground on the year 15 out of 19 times. This means that how the month fares is much more important than how the first week turns out. This is a good thing, as this past week’s results were anything but stellar.

The Dow fell 1.66 percent this past week, finishing at 10,603.96. The S&P 500 ($SPX) gave up 2.12 percent to 1,186.19. The worst performance came from the Nasdaq ($COMPQ), which fell 3.99 percent to close at 2,088.61. Friday’s jobs report, which fell just shy of expectations, was actually a positive in the early going for stocks. However, caution seems to be the word to start the year.

Economic news will be less of a factor this week, with fewer reports to digest. Nonetheless, there are a few that'll be released that could impact trading. The list below details the reports on tap this week:

Monday: Wholesale Trade

Tuesday: Chain Store Sales Snapshot

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report, International Trade, Treasury Budget

Thursday: Jobless Claims, import and Export Prices, Retail Sales

Friday: Business Inventories, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production

Friday will once again be the big day, with attention focusing on the PPI and industrial production. Ironically, though producer prices are not wildly climbing—with a gain of 0.1 percent expected in December—there's still a lot of concern about inflation. The Fed continues to voice concerns while fears that interest rates will be hiked at an accelerated rate run rampant.

Though the bulk of earnings reports will not start until the following week, there will be some key reports this week to pay attention to. Alcoa (AA) kicks off the season Monday, but Intel (INTC) will report on Tuesday and this could have market wide ramifications. Apple Computer (AAPL) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) will also announce this week as well.

Preannouncement warnings are below the historic average of 1.9 to 1.0, which is a positive sign. However, expectations are for earnings growth to come in at 15.3 percent, which is down from the initial 15.5 percent expected at the beginning of the quarter. As usual, it will be the outlook from corporate America that will drive trading more than the results achieved in the fourth quarter.

The fear indices didn’t see too much movement this past week, but remain safely off their 52-week lows. The CBOE Market Volatility Index ($VIX) rose just 1.5 percent to finish the week at 13.49. The Nasdaq Volatility Index ($VXN) tacked on 3.07 percent to 19.15. The 52-week lows for these indices sit at 11.14 and 16.44 respectively. This leaves room for further declines, but this week might struggle to see strong bullish movement.

With concerns about oil prices and inflation, as well as uncertainty with fourth quarter earnings results; traders might be cautious this week. If economic news is positive, but shows little signs of inflation, maybe traders will feel a little less concerned about what the Fed will do at their next FOMC meeting scheduled for February 1 and 2.

Overall, there still isn’t a reason to turn bullish on stocks, but there could be some sideways trading before stronger sessions develop. Profit taking ahas been strong to start the year and understandably so considering the gains achieved in December. Option traders can make profits in any type of market, so just let your trades take what the market gives.

Jody Osborne
Senior Staff Writer & Options Strategist
Optionetics.com ~ Your Options Education Site
Visit Jody's Forum

[Paul]

Another Global Market Brief on China.

[vectorman]

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh3817 6_2005-01-11_00-10-22_t207995_newsml

1 hour, 15 minutes ago Tokyo stocks opened up on Tuesday following a higher finish on Wall Street, though gains were limited by caution ahead of earnings reports from key U.S. companies such as Intel Corp. , due this week.

[Spaf]

vectorman just maybe the fog is lifting!

Well the question was: Who would blink first the market or investors?

Well today the market blinked. A rather small blink up. And there is a small trend up over the last several days. Small as like it was saying I want to go in that direction.

Well it may get the chance. The rest of this week a lot of corporations will be reporting their earnings.

http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-calendar.asp?view=earnings

There were a few earnings in the red, but a lot in the green. Now we wait to see what the market thinks?

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[vectorman]

Hopefully some more good news for the I fund for Tuesday.


Australian shares edged ahead to a record high for a third straight trading day on Tuesday, led by banks and other financial stocks, as well as resources giant BHP Billiton.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh3842 3_2005-01-11_00-51-22_syd16530_newsml

[vectorman]

Appreciate yours comments and links Spaf. The over all trend since Mar 2003 is up with many corrections and consolidationsalong the way. We had such a great Nov and Dec, this correction was due.Tom kept telling us that there will bepull backs along the way. Since way back in the middle of Nov, what we are going through now since the first of Jan is how I thought atrue pull back would be. Still learning.

[vectorman]

Hopefully the market will shake this one off tomorrow.


Alcoa Inc., the world's biggest aluminum producer, said on Monday its fourth-quarter net profit slipped because of higher energy costs, a weaker dollar and a charge it took for selling some of its businesses.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050110/minerals_alcoa_earns_4.html

[tsptalk]

vectorman wrote: Alcoa Inc., the world's biggest aluminum producer, said on Monday its fourth-quarter net profit slipped because of higher energy costs, a weaker dollar and a charge it took for selling some of its businesses.
The first two problems may have been temporary as energy costs are going down againand the dollars seems to be bottoming out. I would look at this as a positive sincethe market looks forward. Smart investors will likely buy any weakness in Alcoa's stock in the days aheadsince this is rearview mirror news.

:cool:

[teknobucks]

this market could go either way...i'm still speculating UP.

more green earnings predicted than red this week......oil pricescould snuff this data out.

should know short term market direcrion for sure by wed.overall up trend is still in place.

jmho

tekno

[vectorman]

My gut tells me that the market is just about to keep climbing out of its lows. Just when its about to get good people are jumping into the G fund. The real test will be if it will be able to climb to new highs and hang on to them,or will we see a repeatof consolidation similiar to Mar-Oct 2003. In either case we will see the market shorty take a run at trying to test for a upper resistance level.

[Spaf]

The other markets

By the midday break, the Nikkei Average rose 91.11 points, or 0.8 percent, to 11,524.35, while the broader Topix was up 7.87 points, or 0.7 percent, at 1,153.63. The markets were testing the upside. The markets also got support from individual investors, who were investing in small-cap and other issues with cash they amassed from selling struggling shares before year-end.

Why thats sly, selling high and buying low. Lets see if I have this straight. The smart money ($) saw that the market was overbought in late December and began taking money out of the high. A correction ensued that brought the market down close to the higher low (HL) where the correction (c) ran into resistance. And now they are buying back into the the market at the correction low. Now thats really sneaky. See attached chart.

Where is Martha Stewarts broker? And why do we have to wait a day or two just to activate the handle? Oh I forgot, we are TSP investors. Shame on me! I need a reality check: TSP is the? Is "T" for toilet?

Have I missed something here?

Rgds and Confused! :? Spaf

[Mike]

Spaf, the institutional investors ("smart money") always have the advantage.

I let the market give me a beat down when I held C / S during the pullback - but I did manage to buy the dip in the I fund, so all is not bad. When the trade/export data is released this week, the dollar could very well take another beating.

[Spaf]

Mike wrote: Spaf, the institutional investors ("smart money") always have the advantage.


I agree!

But, thanks to Tom (tsptalk) at least we have this site to our advantage. :^

I'm OK! Will wait for the primary market movement. This secondary movement just had me nervious. It was so strong that changes could be made. But I'll wait and see what develops. Hopefully green.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[Mike]

I guessed the pullback would wipe out 20-25% of the gains since August, and that's pretty much what it did (particularly in the S fund). As long as we don't break support, I think we'll be okay and push to a new high in the intermediate term before hitting another consolidation period as interest rate hikes start coming down the pike (next one coming in three weeks).

I might go more defensive in the end of the month. I'm really worried about a 0.5% hike. If the Feds go ahead and do that, the market could take a major hit. On the other hand, another 0.25% hike could relieve investors and send stocks soaring. I guess in the meantime, we all need to keep an eye on the PPI numbers to see whether or not expectations are being met there. If the numbers come in higher than expected, that could trigger a bigger hike in early February at the next FOMC meeting.

[tsptalk]

AMD's warning is weighing on the market (Ugh! I owned it). So farthe "dumb" money (first 1/2 hour of trading) is selling. Let's see how the day plays out before we panic. We've had strong opens fade lately. Maybe we'll see a weak open will rally by day's end.

My instinct is to get out, but that is never a good indicator. I'm just part of the herd. If anything, going against my instinct is a much better play. ;)

[Spaf]

Tom..........We stay the course.

01/11/2005 - Updated 4:15 PM ETIntel Announces Record Quarterly and Annual Revenue; Fourth-Quarter Earnings Per Share 33 Cents

Rgds ;) Spaf

[learning]

Yes, the trees are still alive and well.:P

How do you see the presidential inaugration and the market? I believe that it would help. The problem is this. Iraq well be having an election. They will attack to ruin it. This may hurt the market. If the election goes well, I suspect the market will take off.

Is the inaugration on the 20th of this month?

Best To All- BTA

[tsptalk]

Intel may have saved the day. Nice earnings report may reverse today's fall, tomorrow.

[teknobucks]

tsptalk wrote: Intel may have saved the day. Nice earnings report may reverse today's fall, tomorrow.

IT BETTER!

this darn correction is wearing out it's welcome!

:**####%#%&@$#$% (mailto:*####%#%&@$#$%) **####%#%&^@$#$%*####%#%&^@$#$% (mailto:**####%#%&^@$#$%*####%#%&^@$#$%)#!!!!!!

[teknobucks]

The important thing about INTC earnings was they boosted CAP Ex considerably, nice.Watch the equipment makers tomorrow:)

[teknobucks]

http://tinyurl.com/3w4yy

coiled to blast off or (......), I still say up! we start tomm.

tekno

fingers crossed:shock:

[Spaf]

teknobucks wrote: coiled to blast off or (......), I still say up! we start tomm. fingers crossed:shock:


Hey tekno....don't forget the tarter sauce! :D Rgds Spaf

[Spaf]

Late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

For those of you that might of missed it, tekno posted a classic!

"Confidence is going after Moby Dick in a rowboat and taking the tartar sauce with you."

So when I asked if he was bringing the tarter sauce, this explains it. Maybe I should of asked for his recipe! That could be to much confidence! He can comment on the recipe :D.

Some of us are going after the whale. In a TSP rowboat! This correction has been sort of going sideways as of lately. There has been no good news to advance above the resistance levels. Hopefully the "Tech" will change the standoff. If good, the market should resume some of the advance. If the gains go above the previous higher highs the bullish movement will be intact. On the other hand, if the gains do not reach higher highs, but form a lower high, well, we could be in to some bearish times. Minor corrections are fairly safe, but the correction we are currently in could change the primary market movement, hopefully it won't, but I have no insider news.

The problem with investing with TSP is that we don't have an expert news letter for advice. It also has a delay of 1-2 days to transfer funds to safe or advancing areas. As market timer use to say, "it takes at least a day to get out of Dodge."

Intel reported some green news. So maybe the market will make a decision to do something other than going sideways in the current correction.

So, I've got to stay with the current bullish trend, 100% in stocks till proven otherwise.

Have a good day, rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf

[Skip]

Just made a change 60% g 40% I fundfrom 100% G

Not that I have a signal to trade the I fund ,But its a way to short the dollar.

So we are Short the dollar long on the I fund....

Still out of the c and s funds as I still see weakness..



Skip

[vectorman]

Hi Skip, since you're finally making the move out of the G fund for 2005, will you consider starting a 'Skip Account' and ' Skip Account Talk' so some of us can follow your movesand communicate with you. Thanks:^

[vectorman]

Hi Saraho, that is a nice picture. Saw your comment in your ' saraho's account'. No need to apologize. Some members make many moves and some may not change for a couple of months. The fact that you are considing a move in Feb to me doesn't qualify you as a 'buy and hold' only member. I for one would appreciate your comments and when you dodecide to make a move show it in your 'saraho's account'. If you decide to keep visiting this site, then in Jan 2006 we can see how you did compare to others. Thanks, V-man

[Spaf]

I think that this post should be entitled Lost Dog / Lost Market

Since the first of the year, this market has not shown that it knows what to do. It figured out 2004 ending very bullish, but it hasen't yet figured out 2005.

The S&P has been in the 1180-1190 rangethe last seven trading days. In many of the days, what started out as pretty good, faded to small losses as the day went along. Seeing the fade or weakness, would keep any new money on the sidelines.

Todays close was strong, there was no fading. Strong closes would be a positive for new money. If we can get some more days like today the market, I would hopethat the marketwould regain the bullish trend we had in the last portion of 04. It has to advance past the higher high around December 28-30 at 1213 to re-validate the primary movement being bullish.

There are some more economic reports and company earnings scheduled for Thursday.

Barring any national incident the market seem to have a support level of 1180. And, we are waiting..... waiting.....

Rgds :? Spaf

[teknobucks]

let the semis lead the way!:)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SMH

and may the ipod save us all....

[Spaf]

teknobucks wrote: let the semis lead the way!:)

OK tekno!........ I'm sitting here in my row boat with the TSP (tarter sauce prepared: 30c, 40s, 30i per recipe) ready to catch me a Moby Dick.
Looking for those "semis." ;) Spaf

PS: What kind of fish is a semis?

[Spaf]

Tom wrote in his commentsJust when you think you can't take the pain any longer, it's time to buy. That's comes just after the sell signal you get when your barber starts giving you stock tips.
Is that before or after the barber says "whoops" that was your ear. I have a band-aid?

[teknobucks]

Spaf wrote: teknobucks wrote: let the semis lead the way!:)

OK tekno!........ I'm sitting here in my row boat with the TSP (tarter sauce prepared: 30c, 40s, 30i per recipe) ready to catch me a Moby Dick.
Looking for those "semis." ;) Spaf

PS: What kind of fish is a semis?


not sure....

but if she shows up on your plate looking like a blackened RED fish...sell with both hands.:shock:

[Spaf]

Repeat: Lost Dog / Lost Market

Can't find my airplane, the fog is so thick. Can't find row boat with TSP (tarter sauce prepared). Now a member of TV program "Lost."

Mercy! :X Spaf

[Mike]

You both lost me. :D

[vectorman]

Is there any one else here that studies market charts to compare present conditions with past conditions? Usually the market shows a trend ( up or down) within 7-8 days after testing a support level during a pull back. If you look at the chart for the SP500, the market is trying its best to stay close to its 50 day MA, but seems to be about to lose the battle. The S fund ishanging on just barely below it's 50 day MA, but had been trending down. Perhaps today, ordefintely tomorrow we are going to see which way this market will trend in the short term.One cannot but wonder if the market is some how being manipulated in the short term, but impossible to do for the long term. For your information, the I fund is riding just above its 50 day MA and still trending up.:?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500

[grandma]

Spaf wrote: Repeat: Lost Dog / Lost Market

Now a member of TV program "Lost."

Mercy! :X SpafOkay, Spaf, while you are there: do in Mr Smith! Then the dog will find his way to the Market, the fog will clear for you to get the plane off the ground, the semis will have pup trailors for us, towing the rowboat filled w/tartar sauce, and we will all be riding fiercely & victoriously in the pups to the finish! - God willing, and He is of course.......

[vectorman]

Does anyone else here miss Namor, at least he could take the edge off this marketfustration by following his moves. The question of the day ( and before 12 est) is this really the bottom? Those bears seem to be getting stronger.:X

But the S fund is fighting back!!!:^

[vectorman]

Ok, I know alot of people take a peek at this site before 12est. Does anyone know why the I fund is taking a hit today? Thanks

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html

[vectorman]

Cowboy, why are you shying away from the I fund for tomorrow. Just curious. Wouldn't that be a nice hedge? Thanks

vectorman wrote: Ok, I know alot of people take a peek at this site before 12est. Does anyone know why the I fund is taking a hit today? Thanks

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html

The dollar has been trending up..that's why. Try to think of the I fund as a combo C fund and reverse dollar currency fund. Even tho the I fund is down, its still down less than the C fund so far today. The S fund is holding its ground..which its supposed to do in January. :)

[vectorman]

Thanks Saraho. I just moved 100%I for tomorrow. I appreciate yourcomments.:)

I noticed that fridays are usually pretty good for the I fund.

[Spaf]

Mike wrote: You both lost me. :D
Mike... You need to stay up with tekno! Otherwise he will slip a ""Classic"" past ya. Like: "Confidence is going after Moby Dick in a rowboat and taking the tartar sauce with you."
TSP is tarter sauce prepared, a recipe of G, F, C, S,and I.
You with us now Mike!

We ain't got nutting else to do with the market stuck in a fog bank! We have a new primary movement it's called a dribble market! Lost in the fog of 2005!

I'll go one better than tekno and say "this darn correction has flat worn out it's welcome!"

Oil was reported to top $48. and the marketat middaylost groundas a strong profit report and bullish outlook from Apple Computer failed to inspire any follow-through to the previous session's late rally.

I'm going back to the hanger with a new transfer of 50g, 15c, 20s and 15i. Got to safeguard funds while away from a computer for the weekend.

Rgds ;) Spaf

[ou81200]

Any ideas how the dollar and I fund are doing today??? TIA:?

Dollar up....I down...C down.. S up...F is also upa little. Sort of a typical albeit weak January day for US stocks.

You might think that a strong dollar would benefit C and S, but in fact, the opposite is true. The dollar's strength islargely coming as a result of anticipated higher interest rates, whichshould also cut into profits..

[cowboy]

vectorman wrote: Cowboy, why are you shying away from the I fund for tomorrow. Just curious. Wouldn't that be a nice hedge? Thanks


I guess its anyones guess what the I fund is going to do and a lot of theories on why to stay in the I fund. I believe I mentioned in another post that it is my theory the I fund nor areany of the others,are going up at the moment and a .09 cent gain in this fund is absolutely nothing because of its voltility. I am currently in my bearish mode as the markets are trending down. If the markets had a turn around as Tom stated and you try to jump in you may be too late. If you look at the markets at this time if I was more confident in it. I would play the C fund tomorrow but I did not as I went G. If I get the bounceand make an 8 second ride I have cashed it in tomorrow. If the markets go up tomorrow then I made a wrong play, didn't I. If C & S go up tomorrow, I may play theI fund, as itcontinues down tomorrow. If all of them go down then I'll watch how deep they go and take my chances or do nothing. Every day is another opportunity. If I was in a trending up market, I would play differently. It looks like I might make my 8 second ride but the market can spin very quickly or just walk out of the chute.:^

[vectorman]

Thanks Cowboy, I understand. I was 40 C and60 S today, but saw how the overseas markets were climbing in after hours trading. Switched to 100% I for just tomorrow. I just thought I take the chance to see if it carries over to tomorrow. I have 10 years left to retirement so alittle risk now will not be so bad. I least I'm smart enough now not to ride the market down now as I as did in 2002.:X

[cowboy]

vectorman wrote: Thanks Cowboy, I understand. I was 40 C and60 S today, but saw how the overseas markets were climbing in after hours trading. Switched to 100% I for just tomorrow. I just thought I take the chance to see if it carries over to tomorrow. I have 10 years left to retirement so alittle risk now will not be so bad. I least I'm smart enough now not to ride the market down now as I as did in 2002.:X


Mmmm? Your setting in I fund now, right. I guess my little crystal ball is saying the I fund will be down tomorrow, again. That is why I am G at the moment but just like today I could be wrong, but the markets reversed like Tom stated but then went bearish very quickly, in other words a double reverse and all markets heading down again. I'm thinking the I fund dropped more then you think today or will show down right away in the morning. This not good! Unless it moved down to close to $15.00 at close today and bounces tomorrow. I just don't see this happening unless I am missing something. One thing about the I fund if your new. I learned this the hard way. You have to make a move prior to 11:00 am to get the close that evening. If the market does not slide all the way down by close to what the dollar gained theday of your move then you start in the morning with your shares down, a losing situation. I got hooked this way several times. If you don't understand this I will try to explain it more clearly, just let me know.

[teknobucks]

strange light volume selloff today....very strange.

[namor]

vectorman wrote: Does anyone else here miss Namor, at least he could take the edge off this marketfrustration by following his moves.
Thanks for the plug, vectorman.

I never advocated anybody to follow me. I am not an expert on anything but gambling. But that's pretty much what this is. You have a 20% chance every single day to hit the winning fund for the day. BUT, you have abetter than 50%chance to make money in the volatile fund every day. If you don't move, you can't win. You can't lose either if you don't move, but you won't win by playing it safe unless there is a crash. Using your other info, you can actually increase your odds.

I don't know if I was missed, but I sure missed posting, even if I was the only one reading my account. What a crappy way to start the New Year, being shut out ofhere at work,but I have have put in a request for tsptalk.com to be added to the list of approved sitesin my agency. Hopefully it will be approved and I can come back and have fun here again.

Thanks again for the holler. Good luck in your investments.

[learning]

Well it is nice to be out of the woods. Now, what we need is a good bear hunter. Someone out there know how to go bear baiting or traping? That is what it is starting to look like. We have a nasty little bear out there comming in and taking myfood when I'm not looking. I move just in time to take the hit and get out just before it goes up. What a deal. I whimped out and was out on the close of the 11th. 100%G now.

I do believe there is some good times ahead. I suspect the dollar to lose from now to around a week before the fed meets again. Then the dollar will start a little climb. I intend to put some into the I fund. Need to read a little first have not had time yet to do that. I suspect the fed will do the .25 in Feb then give some real talk about the dollar and hint of a bigger up on the intrest rate. I suspect they will prop the dollar a little. Over all it will head back down and go that way tell summer. This is just a guess. Smart money, do the opposit of me. :P Please do not follow me. I am just giving ideas.

P.S. where is the area on thissight that people poastwhat they are doing? Several of you appear to have it togther. I would like to know. Perhaps if several good people do the same thing I might try and follow once in awhile. Provided I get a little more brave. The bear on the market is a lot meaner then the one in the woods. The bears in the woods run from you, the market stalks you.:shock: LOL

learning wrote: P.S. where is the area on thissight that people poastwhat they are doing? Several of you appear to have it togther. I would like to know. Perhaps if several good people do the same thing I might try and follow once in awhile. Provided I get a little more brave. The bear on the market is a lot meaner then the one in the woods. The bears in the woods run from you, the market stalks you.:shock: LOL


It's called

Member Allocations, Transactions and Returns (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/)


I just found it recently myself.

Yeah, could you imagine if the TSP let you short your funds? Some of the people here would go even more crazy than they do now. :l (not to mention broke) It is interesting tho, for those who think that they can handle it,that there ARE mutual funds out there that offer double the C fund or S fund or I fund through the use of futures and options. They also offer shorting these funds (making money when the funds go down) We aren't allowed that option though. I wonder if we will ever be allowed to do that?

(For those of you who are looking for more information on funds like the ones I've just described, there are several. Two that come to mind are ProFunds andRydex. You can invest in funds that have the goal of obtaining double the C fund for example....or double the inverse of the C fund (in other words, if the C fund loses 5% you make 10%). These funds are not for widows or orphans...needless to say...)

[Skip]

vectorman:

Ihave a account look under the tsp accounts posts....

Made a move to 40%I 60% g yesterday.... I didn't have any signals but the market was looking good for a change and I was trying to short the dollar and go long on the I fund..... "a fool and his money" looks like I lost for today....

friday might be a wild day....

link to post.... http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

From Ed Downs....

Late-Day Decline
Dow holds steady throughout session, but drops to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...as has been the case lately, we will likely see further volatility within the boundaries of the range. A downside push back below 10,550 could make for a push below 10,500 tomorrow;..."

The Dow opened the session quietly lower this morning, as the index pulled back from yesterday's highs to begin the day, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index then traded sluggishly sideways the remainder of the day until late in the session when the Dow broke below 10,550. The break led to a steep decline to 10,500, where it closed the day lower by 112 points.

Looking at the 15 and 60 Minute Charts shows that the Dow continues to trade within the boundaries of the wildly volatile trading range, which has formed at the lows of the recent decline. Typically, this type of behavior is highly bearish, as the charts are displaying instability through the pattern. If the Dow gets a decisive break through 10,450, we could be in for another steep decline toward 10,350.

Otherwise, the Dow is very likely to remain within the boundaries of the expanding range before such a break occurs. An upside push back above 10,550 could indicate strength toward 10,625 tomorrow.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow closed the day right at the key 10,500 level, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this level at the Open tomorrow; using it as a fulcrum for short term direction.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will watch 10,450 down, and 10,600 up tomorrow; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The S&P and NASDAQ each traded lower to the Close, but remain within the boundaries of their respective trading ranges. Look for continued volatility within the boundaries of the pattern before another clear move occurs.

Summary

The Dow closed the day sharply lower after getting a steep sell-off late in the session. The Dow is now holding near the bottom of the expanding range, as it continues to gear up for the next big move. A downside break is the most likely scenario, but a break either way should yield key movement.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

[vectorman]

Thanks Skip, appreciate the input.:)

[Spaf]

learning wrote: 100%G now.

I think that was a reasonable transfer. I transfered to 50% G and 50% stocks. Taking another look at the market, crude oil up to $48.04. Indicators for the S&P are mainly saying to sell for the short term. Some buying would be OK for the long term.

Reference:
http://www.barchart.com/

The close today did not impress me. Even with some good news the market fades to declines in the PM activity. My stop point was the 1180 marker in S&P. The 50/50 transfer was more of a gut feeling. On re-analysis the transfer was changed to 100% G, effective tomorrow PM, maybe, just maybe, picking up any Friday gains. 1180 was my 1% stop loss figure. Next week will, with my luck, launch a huge advance. However, I'm sticking with my strategy, which is to minimize any losses, and to follow The Dow Theory. I feel that the smart money, is no longer in the market. Could be wrong, but I'm not seeing investors, especially with the PM fading.

One day to get out of Dodge, I hope they don't shoot my horse tomorrow!

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf