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Hi Skip "Stacy" Roberts here...Cincinnati Ohio...These will be my moves for 2005. I have been trading the markets for a numbers of years . I use Omnitrader a software program to give me the insite "and HELP" to trade the moves.. It uses a ton of systems and picks the best ones to trade at that time.. I don't claim to be a wiz but I do put in some time watching and trading ... Most of the trading I do is in small caps were I get a good % pop "or lost"
The tsp trading I do this year might be the most I've done and This year will be a hard one to make 20% since we can't so short...and the forcast is 5 to 10% But that will be MY goal... Stay tuned.... And be warned of my spelling...:cool:
and trade at your own risk.
As of 12/31/2004 100% G
See my first post as I stated this before trading for new year.. So I quess it a legal post here....
The funds closed at the low of the day... more red Thursday I belive.....
I also don't see a big pop but a move sideways after this profit taking... sp500 c fund has a lot of support at 1177 so a bounce off of that would be positive . We will see that Thursday.... And would be a good entry point...
But the way the market has been selling off at the close, be careful.
If I can get to a cpu before 12:00 and the sp500 bounced off of 1177 and is above 1185 .I will move 25% to c fund... and keep 75% in G
Otherwize I will wait and stay 100% G
up,down,sideways I choose down
Skip
Well I didn't make the 12:00 deadline so still 100% G
Sp is up but didn't test support level... So I would not trade anyway.... Lets hope that today is a positive...
The market has been selling off late in day....We will see,
Skip
Just made a change 60% g 40% I fund 1/12/05 at 11:50
Not that I have a signal to trade the I fund ,But its a way to short the dollar.
So we are Short the dollar long on the I fund....
Still out of the c and s funds as I still see weakness...
Well looks like its time to move back to 100% G
was 60% g 40% I Trying to short the dollar on its run up but no good there.... It might just be G for awhile until I see some Bull back in the markets....
Trade will be effective at fridays close
1/21/2005
Skip
Since we got the penney in the G fund we are going to go 100% F fund
For friday's close to try and pick up 2 cents... The f fund has droped 3 cents and held...We might be a day late If the f fund pays friday instead of monday...We will see... Staying out of the stocks until the election is over Sunday....
100% f for fridays close ..1/28/05.. Putting in the order now....
Skip
Oh well it paid friday 2 cents... not monday... I thought I might be a day late and was.... Just trying to make a buck....
100% F will see what happens Sunday with the elections...
Skip
make a move today"but it was after 12:00 est so it might be tues before its in effect...
15g 25c 35f 25i 1/31/05 ??for 2/1 or 2/2
Skip
Skip wrote: make a move today"but it was after 12:00 est so it might be tues before its in effect...
15g 25c 35f 25i 1/31/05 ??for 2/1 or 2/2
Skip
trade good COB Tuesday...
Skip
Skip wrote: Skip wrote: make a move today"but it was after 12:00 est so it might be tues before its in effect...
15g 25c 35f 25i 1/31/05 ??for 2/1 or 2/2
Skip
trade good COB Tuesday...
Skip
That should of been 15% G 25% c 35%S 25% I I had 0% in F fund..opps.
Well we had a nice day Friday.... But the dollar is going up now and killing the I fund so we are moveing to 40% c and 60% s for the close monday...
The I fund will under perform while the dollar makes its short term rise I think...
We also got that 1% followup to confirn the uptrend, in ALL3 INDEXES"Funds"
Its about time !!!
Watch for a top in the dow 10800 we might get a pull back at that point... we have several days of green.... red might get a chance soon....
50g50f for 2/10/05
I quess its still to risky will save to battle another day... That 12:00 deadline is a killer...
Skip
tsptalk
02-10-2005, 03:01 AM
Is that effective 2/11? Thanks.
tsptalk wrote: Is that effective 2/11? Thanks.
50g50f Yes that was effective 2/11 at the close.... a little to soon ! MT got me gun shy and I didn't follow the system.... Everytime I do that I get burnned it seems...!
Any way since the nas100 had its follow up day friday with me on the sidelines:X
And MT's head and shoulder pattern was invailed as we had a breakout above the left shoulded..
Im going back in monday2/14/05 40c30s30I that would be effective at the close monday...
Maybe we will get a pullback monday but I doubt it .. Im staying in for awhile unless
the dollar gets the bighead again... and Iwill get out of the I fund..
JMHO trade as you will..
Skip
tsptalk
02-14-2005, 03:57 AM
Skip wrote: tsptalk wrote: Is that effective 2/11? Thanks.
50g50f Yes that was effective 2/11 at the close.... a little to soon ! MT got me gun shy and I didn't follow the system.... Everytime I do that I get burnned it seems...!
Thanks for the clarification Skip butthat's alittle too much Monday morning QB'ing. We have a responsibilty to be asaccurate aspossible as account postingmembers. Of course mistakes can and will happen. If I'm wrong here, just smack me.
On 2/9 you announceda transfer to 50G/50F and now you're saying it is notactually effective until Monday morning the 14th?
On 1/31 you say "15g 25c 35f 25i 1/31/05 ??for 2/1 or 2/2" and on the Feb 4th you say that should have been 35% S not F.
That's not really fair to anyone trying to track or follow your moves, or for comparing returns of other members. I'm sure there is noill-intentin your case butwhen they work out well in your favor as these both did people will look at you funny. :oo We've had that problem with a couple of members in the past.
I'm sorry you are taking the heat for it. I'm sure you are not the only one.I'll use this as an opportunity to tell everyone again...
Please try to post your moves when you make your transfers. It will be easier for us to follow and keep anyone from second guessing your moves.
Thanks!
Tom
Skip wrote: MT got me gun shy and I didn't follow the system.... Everytime I do that I get burnned it seems...!
Sorry to hear that. Now that MT has been banned, maybe you'll be seeing GREEN:shock:
tsptalk wrote: Skip wrote: tsptalk wrote: Is that effective 2/11? Thanks.
50g50f Yes that was effective 2/11 at the close.... a little to soon ! MT got me gun shy and I didn't follow the system.... Everytime I do that I get burnned it seems...!
Thanks for the clarification Skip butthat's alittle too much Monday morning QB'ing. We have a responsibilty to be asaccurate aspossible as account postingmembers. Of course mistakes can and will happen. If I'm wrong here, just smack me.
On 2/9 you announceda transfer to 50G/50F and now you're saying it is notactually effective until Monday morning the 14th?
On 1/31 you say "15g 25c 35f 25i 1/31/05 ??for 2/1 or 2/2" and on the Feb 4th you say that should have been 35% S not F.
That's not really fair to anyone trying to track or follow your moves, or for comparing returns of other members. I'm sure there is noill-intentin your case butwhen they work out well in your favor as these both did people will look at you funny. :oo We've had that problem with a couple of members in the past.
I'm sorry you are taking the heat for it. I'm sure you are not the only one.I'll use this as an opportunity to tell everyone again...
Please try to post your moves when you make your transfers. It will be easier for us to follow and keep anyone from second guessing your moves.
Thanks!
Tom
For 1/31
Ok go to my other tsp room for Jan 31 look were I didnot make the f fund mistake... also if you will notice the order of the allocations... g f c s i I had the f in the wrong place "were S should of been...see paste and cut here.But go check it out yourself...
Edit (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/edit_post.php?id=12497)
Quote (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?topic_id=1002&post_id=12497&quote=1)
Reply (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?topic_id=1002)
A little GREEN on the charts looks good.....We even closed higher at the close instead of fading.. "Good Sign" Im starting to get some sub-signals in my system,But not enough to confirm a real buy sign....We need a follow through day of up at least 1% with increase volume from day before..to confirn this rally"if thats what we are going to call this pop..
It showed a bollinger band with ADX trend its called the BOL-T system and was developed by Linda Bradford Raschke who was in the book new market wizards... Just for those who want to know..
In back testing 04 it had 3 long trades all were profitable. in a total of 30days and 5.56% profit or a apr of 47.32 %
This system takes advanage of a retracement durning a strong uptrend... Like we were having in nov dec....
I could not help myself to trade a little today...
15%G 25%C 35%S 25% I it was a little late today so it might be eod tuesday before it takes effect...
JMHO
Skip
On the 2/9 move it was effective the 2/10 not the 11 as you said "And I agreeed to" not looking at the confirm..to verify.. NOTE THE POST TIME AND DATE
Posted: Wed Feb 9th, 2005 09:48 pm
Edit (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/edit_post.php?id=13663)
Quote (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?topic_id=992&post_id=13663&quote=1)
Reply (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?topic_id=992)
50g50f for 2/10/05
I quess its still to risky will save to battle another day... That 12:00 deadline is a killer...
Skip
I don't know were you got the 14th ! for that move thats your mistake...
And I never said anything about effective the 14th ????
On 2/9 you announceda transfer to 50G/50F and now you're saying it is notactually effective until Monday morning the 14th?
I do have a move that was effective feb 14 you can read it above in a post..
but its not the one your talking about here.. its 40c35s35i 2/14
I. Information About Your Request
Name: WILLIAM ROBERTS
Social Security Number: ***-**-
Method of Request: Web
Date of Request: 02/09/2005
Time of Request: 21:43:12 Eastern
Effective Date: 02/10/2005
Investment Percentages You Requested:
G Fund: 50%
F Fund: 50%
C Fund: 0%
S Fund: 0%
I Fund: 0%
Sorry for the mistakes Im not trying to monday Quarter back with those moves for sure.... If you look at the 2/9 post its before 12:00 deadline to backup this error...
so it would be 2/10
Now thats cleared up....
My humbleapology
Skip
20g 40c40s 2/17/05
moved out of the I fund and uped s fund 10%
tsptalk
02-18-2005, 03:04 AM
Skip wrote: I don't know were you got the 14th ! for that move thats your mistake...
And I never said anything about effective the 14th ????
On 2/9 you announceda transfer to 50G/50F and now you're saying it is notactually effective until Monday morning the 14th?
I do have a move that was effective feb 14 you can read it above in a post..
but its not the one your talking about here.. its 40c35s35i 2/14
Maybe I'm confused. You had mentioned...
50g50f Yes that was effective 2/11 at the close
...which I took to mean that you got theclosing fund prices of 2/11, which was a Friday, so the new allocation would actually take effect on Monday the 14th.
It's not aproblem Skip. Sorry to put you on the defensive.
Tom
25%g 75% I move for tues at the close.. 2/22/05
the c and s funds have bounced off of resistence and the indicators are really close to trigging a sell so Im going to move them a little early... Of course that means we will get a big rally tues.... lol
Skip
Still 25G 75% I and holding..... will see what mr greenspan says friday..
Skip
well the EFA "i fund was up at a high yesterday of 1.00 and closed well off of the high and is off again today with the $ up a little also... oil is going crazy !!! good for my oil stocks :cool:
Going to take it off the table for awhile 100% G as of close 3/17/05:^
move from 25% g 75% I to 100% G 3/17/05
Skip
Well the move to g fund really paid off Thursday....should of been a few days earlier;)
Market is weak now and we will see a 100 point drop soon "Just my thoughts"
Today the fewmergersheld up the nas .... the dollars was up against the euro,yen and pound... and the efa I fund was off over a $ .... Rates are going up Tuesday... all we need is a blimp in any numbers and it will be bottom fishing...
The dow is forming at the lower support levels ,but did not close at the low today.Some hope there....
Watch dow at 10615 for strength and 10500 for weakness Tuesday....
Skip
Well we had a blink !! We got a 95 point drop instead of the 100 drop I called for.
We might get a reaction rally Wedesday before going lower towards 10365 as the next support lower... If we can get above 10600 and hold look for a upside move. the 10600 might take awhile as 10365 looks more likely... To those that were holding G hold on and be careful before moving back in... The I fund is out as the dollar is in the rally mode....So watch C and S
The dow was up untill about 3:00 so the -95 points was about a 125 point drop in 60 minuntes !!! Thats why I think the easier movement will be to the downside.... If we could get a trade in for the open I would get in for the bounce But since we can't I'll stay off to the side... 100% G and botton fishing... Trade your plan...
Skip
Got a signal today... also a 1.38% pop in the sp500 and 1.25% S pop..
I fund is still not a trade.
100% g
moving to 75%C 25%S for the cob 3/31/05
ps tsp.gov will not allow a move as of 8:55pm will try to move funds asap...
Skip
made the move this morning...3/31 so it would be activitive 4/1
75% c 25% s eot cob 3/31
Skip
Looks like the I fund is starting to move again...
change from 75% c 25 s to
50% c 25% s 25% I for close of 4/12/2005
Skip
The he** with this. Will wait till we see a turn around..
moving to 100% G 4/15/05 order in this morning....
Broke botton support ,,, Im out
Skip
move 20 g 20 c 20 s 40 i
cob april 19,2005 effective 4/20
moving g fund to f as we got the penny today in the G fund.
we have buy signals in f c and I funds.
for cob 4/26 effective 4/27
move 20f 20 c 20 s 40 i
We got the penny in the f fund but the dollar closedpast 84 so we are out of the I fund.... also moving to G to pick up the penny and then back to the f fund....Still have a buy sign there also but I can't past up a sure thing.
Going to leave 20% in the s fund but the system still does not have a buy sign there.... the I fund still has a buy sign but the $ is the reason we are moving out...
50g 30c 20s for cob 4/28 effective 4/29
50g 30c 20s for cob 4/28 effective 4/29
The I fund gave a sell today so we were correct to sell by looking at the dollar going over 84 yesterday.. $ was up today also....
The f fund paid 3 cent today so that signal was right also.... Move to the g to catch the penny... But it might cost us as the bond fund was up 3 cents today .... The c fund STILL has a buy sign so I will hang in there....
Skips current buy signals f and c
Moving G to F for 4/29/05 50F 30C 20 S
Skip
moving to 50 c 25s 25 i
5/5/05 at close effective 5/6
The I fund signaled a exit by a trailing profit lost so Im moving the 25% I to the G fund Tues close. Following the system... Also the Dollar was above 84 today so thats a exit also.... See chart below....
The I fund signaled a exit by a trailing profit lost so Im moving the 25% I to the G fund Tues close. Following the system... Also the Dollar was above 84 today so thats a exit also.... See chart below....
with the markets going down and oil going up
moving 60% g 20 c 20 s
Just my felling....
Skip
Well here is the systems sell signal right on que...
Today I didn't have the signal but was watching the markets and made my exit without the system ,but the system had a sell signal at the close anyway.... I did leave 20% in the c and s fund just in case... 60%g 20%c 20%s... Time will tell... Chart below.
Skip
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachment.php?id=426
My short signal in the sp500 ended today without a buy signal. The short yeilded a loss of .65% because of the 2 big days here.. Well we can't go short in the tsp fund so all is well...
Going to move a bit more to the market...with out the system as I feel these 2 days are a turning point .We need a little more VOLUME if we had it I belive the system would of signaled here...
60g 20c 20s now moving to
20g 40c 40s for the cob 5/18/05
PS got a sell signal for the bond fund today if anyone is long...
I would stay away from the I fund for now also...
Skip
Nice moves last 3 days...
With the dollar looking like its peaking Im going to move 20% to the I fund for a bit...got a buy there today...also a buy in the bond fund. Still no signal for the sp500 ???whats up?
40c40s20i cob 5/19/05
ouch! for the I fund... moving out of there until the euro settles...
20F40c40s for june 1 cob...
Skip
moving from 20f40c40s to
40c60s for cob 6/14/05 Tuesday
moving to 40% g 25c 25s 10% i
cob june 22 2005
Just looks like it needs a rest...
Skip
You can track this move as cob 7/9 or when ever ,but it was cob wednesday 7/7..
Been on vacation I know mondays quarterbacking.. so markit as you see it for the returns... now 40%c 60%s
Skip
pyriel
07-08-2005, 09:35 AM
Skip wrote: You can track this move as cob 7/9 or when ever ,but it was cob wednesday 7/7..
Been on vacation I know mondays quarterbacking.. so markit as you see it for the returns... now 40%c 60%s
Skip
Just so not to confuse readers and for satisfying the "no quarterbacking" rule, we willtreat this as:
moved 40c60s before 1200 est Friday, 7/8/05.
pyriel wrote: Skip wrote: You can track this move as cob 7/9 or when ever ,but it was cob wednesday 7/7..
Been on vacation I know mondays quarterbacking.. so markit as you see it for the returns... now 40%c 60%s
Skip
Just so not to confuse readers and for satisfying the "no quarterbacking" rule, we willtreat this as:
moved 40c60s before 1200 est Friday, 7/8/05.
Thats fair .... Its whats in my account that counts..hehe... This is just so some at work and where ever can follow or at least see my moves.... I play my system and it follows the trend so a day or 2 does make that much difference over the year.... LOOK OUT 2nd half as the bulls will rule..
Skip
oil going up to much!!!!
40%f 20c20s20i
Will try that mix for awhile....
Yesterday the short trade by the system ended, but with oil WHO KNOWS WHAT UP...
And that means a less aggresive mix....
Skip
Loving my xom ans hal :^
100% G for now as this market looks like its pulling back some more... ... Might not be the best move I ever made but ?
move to 100%G as of close aug 18th...
Off the the lake :cool:
Skip
PS sold XOM today:^
Can't find my account talk page ? Any body seen it ?
Skip
might be a bottom here but I doubt it.... staying 100%G for now as the oil in the gulf will go up monday....
See chart with retracement levels... note 1204.75 was a support level that was hit friday... up here or more to the down side ? next level 1191.5...
Skip
note the little red dots are bearish chart patterns,green dots below the chart when present are bullish... none noted on this chart....
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachment.php?id=735
systems short sell was ended yesterday.but no buy signal yet...
moving fromm 100%G to
70%f 10%c 10%s 10%I cob 8/31/05
Skip
Looking good now !!!moving more into market as system got a BUY in sp500..
Hoping for a little pullback for wedesday....
30%c 30%s 40%I cob 9/7/05
moving to 50%g 50% f
Skip
moving to 45%C 45%S 10% I
for 10/20/05 close
moving to 100% g cob 11/28
nice run
Well I don't want to be left out...
35c35s30I cob 12/6
With gold going higher and the dollar lower moving a little more to the I fund
30c 30s40I cob 12-13-05 tues
move to 100% g cob 1/17/06
move to 100% g cob 1/17/06
Almost didn't make the cutoff because of roadrunner going down...
I might of made this move a little early as the trigger is for closing price and I saw the sp500 droping to the trigger price interday so I moved to 100% G Missed the penny as it paid today...
Go to skips talk for a chart of the system.
Skip
Moving 100 % to F for cob 1/23/06 monday..
The G fund should pay the penny monday, so off to the f fund...
Not in a hurry to get back in, waiting for the market to tell me what to do.. Its saying stay out and watch 1248 for support in Sp500... 1265 was broken with ease...and it served as support many times !!
sorry I can't post my charts as they are to large of file for limits... Will work on a site to post them so you can keep up.
Skip
moving to 40% c 60% s cob 1/31/06
from 100% f
50% G 50% F COB 2/8/06
skip
moving to 75% g 25% I
as of 3/7/06 cob Tues
Ok its been awhile !!! here is a new move for the funds
40 c 20 s 40 I effective cob monday may 1st
Looking for a sell off monday....
Skip
moving a little more to the I fund
20c 20s 60 I
for cob 5/10/06
Ouch!! Protecting capital
50%G 50% F
Will wait for a base to form...
Summer time is here...
move to
30c 40s 30 I
cob friday 5/26/06
looks like wed was a bottom on the candle charts...
time will tell. be nimble..
Skip
move to 20c 30s 50i for cob monday 6/5/06
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