TALLY 12/31/04

[FundSurfer]

I started keeping track of a few people I know are faithfully posting there moves. I like to see how people are doing. You should not use just this post to judge how people are doing totally befacuse we don't have a long track record yet. As an example, TSP-Tom is doing very well since October but he had a very bad July/August. The moves column should give you a good idea of how aggressively each participant moves their money between funds.



Current Date Month Ago 2 Month Ago 3 Month Ago

12/31/2004 12/1/2004 11/1/2004 10/1/2004



Last Last Last Moves since

Month 2 Months 3 Months 1-Nov

TSPTalk 1.72% 8.05% 10.23% 15

Namor 3.67% 8.13% 7.11% 21 Nice moves in December!

Rod 1.95% 6.60% 6.89% 18

Mike 1.68% 5.27% 6.33% 9

Fundsurfer 1.31% 6.78% 9.10% 6

Dakota 2.50% 8.57% #N/A21

Show-me 0.21% 3.53% #N/A14

Milk2 2.91% 6.35% #N/A17 (Start 11/19)

Zbwmy 2.01% 8.17% 9.81% 0

Rolo 1.99% 8.88% 10.23% 3 Well Done! (Start calcs 10/8)

I got these numbers using the post from each account talk list. If you are a regular poster but I missed you it was because I either felt you were not posting regularly and had quit or you were not posting in the right place. If you want to check the numbers, I'll e-mail Tom the spreadsheet for him to post --- WARNING : The spreadsheet is slightly different than Tom's. I also only post your numbers if you have more than 30 days worth of history. Looks like we'll have several new members added to the list next month.

(Milk2 has been e-mailing me his moves prior to each days deadline. I know there are several out there interested in how his new system is doing. His 2 month total does not have the benefit of the first 18 days of the month. Rolo also doesn't start till 8 days into October. I wasn't sure Rolo's moves prior to 10/8 were complete. Zbwmy is long term buy and hold which is why he had 0 moves.)

[Show-me]

Ow. I suck! Looks like I need to be more of a buy-n-holder. Happy New Year!

[FundSurfer]

You were very conservative in November staying in G and F in high percentages much of the month. No shame in being conservative.

[Show-me]

Thanks for the kind words. I’m still a little envious of the rest of you.

[Mike]

Why? I had the worst return in the last three months. :P

I need to tweak my strategy (meaning, I need to completely overhaul it).

[Spaf]

Mike wrote: Why? I had the worst return in the last three months. :P


Can I Help!

Rgds :) Spaf

[Mike]

No, mr. capital preservationist, you aren't helping me on this one. :P

I'm devising my own system to replace my current "fly by the seat of my pants" approach.

[pyriel]

Hmmm... I don't feel too bad anymore with my 2.22% return for December especially when I only started tracking my moves starting 8 December. I think I will stick with my system which is taking everyone's moves into consideration prior to making my own decision.Attached is my TSP Tracker...

Pyriel

[Rolo]

FundSurfer wrote: I wasn't sure Rolo's moves prior to 10/8 were complete.

Nice job on the table. Lemme get back to you on that...gonna put all my trades tracked in Quicken to the spreadsheet (guh, fun). Quicken says my return for 2004 was 12.48%.

Ima see if I can make a spreadsheet that you can just paste your IFT e-mail into. I don't like typing! :cool:

Or even something that will work with Quicken exports, which will have the exact share price of the trade.

[Rolo]

Whatdahell? The spreadsheet says I got a 21.84% return. Wow. Granted, it doesn't really take into full account the deposits along the way, but sheesh. I wondered if Quicken's return calcs were sketchy (I know it horked my Scottrade return).

[FundSurfer]

THANK YOU ROLO!!!!

You just confirmed for me that I wasn't thinking about the way I enter trades in a wierd manner. You entered your trades the same way that I do....which is wrong for Tom's spreadsheet. Your return is actually about 11.5%. The spreadsheet I posted earlier was a modified version of Tom's for entering the same way you did.

Now your mistake was entering your contribution %'s on the day you make the trade. For Tom's spreadsheet, you should enter the %'s on the day you sell. So if you switched from 100% C to 100% G on 10/1 and then switched to 100% S on 10/15, you would enter 100%C on the 10/1 and 100%G on 10/15.

[Rolo]

Baahahaahhahha I guess I should have RTFMfirst!

hmm...dammit, I JUST finished making a 2005 sheet and a "Since inception" sheet...and they are all wrong.

Okay, easy fix...just move all the %'s down one row and nix the first row (I wondered why that seemed odd). I follow Tom's logic now and it makes perfect sense: you are SELLING and making the profit/loss your prior allocation...so today's allocation isn't realised until later when you sell. Got it. I could do that with my Scottrade. (bahaha yeahrrrrright!)

Yes, I got 11.79% return, which sounds right (definately not, like, twice what it was!). I guess Quicken is accurate* with 12.48%. That difference can be explained by not accounting for contributions throughout the year in the spreadsheet.

Fixed sheet attached. Check my work, please.



*The reason my Scottrade return is horked (I think) is that withdrawals appear tolower the return. I could be wrong, though, hard to tell.

[rokid]

In the interest of keepingthe market timing vs. buy and hold debate alive :D

My inarticulate buy and hold Quicken 2004 (12 months) IRR: 18.00%

AllocationYTD Returns

F Fund 25.0% 4.30%

C Fund/Fidelity Spartan (FUSEX)23.6%10.82%/10.73%

S Fund/Fidelity Low Priced Stock (FLPSX)32.6% 18.03%/22.24%

I Fund/Fidelity International Diversified (FDIVX) 18.8% 20.00%/19.66%

The excess return is due to dollar cost averaging, i.e. buying low with new contributions throughout the year (approximately 25% of the portfolio) and a relatively heavy allocation to FLPSX (27.6%).

The less accurate, simple return (which doesn’t take the varying returns based on the varying cost of shares added to theaccount):

(Ending Balance – Amount Invested)/Amount Invested = 14.8% for 2004

So far this year.....

2005 IRR YTD: -38.47%
Simple return 2005 YTD: -1.85% :([/b]

[Rolo]

rokid wrote: My inarticulate buy and hold Quicken 2004 (12 months) IRR: 18.00%
Very nice. Do you keep the same allocation always? (looks like 25F/25C/30S/20I)

[rokid]

Rolo,

For the most part. The percentages shown are my target allocations.My actual allocations drift 1-5% based on returns and new contributions.For example,my F Fund allocation is currently at 24%.

In addition, I plan to slowly increase my S Fund/FLSX allocation to 37% in 2005 and reduce my exposure to large caps. I'm increasing my risk exposure toobtain, hopefully, higher returns.

We'll see.:?

[Rolo]

rokid wrote: In addition, I plan to slowly increase my S Fund/FLSX allocation to 37% in 2005 and reduce my exposure to large caps. I'm increasing my risk exposure toobtain, hopefully, higher returns.
Is that to buy S fund shares cheap or to cash-out profits on C fund shares?

[rokid]

Rolo,

Neither, I'm just adjusting my long-term allocations.

I'll adjust my contributions (new money) to purchase S Fund and FLPSX shares until I reach the target allocations,i.e. 7% S Fund and 30% FLPSX. If the S Fund or FLPSXshare prices decrease, I'll allocate more new moneyto purchases. If their share prices increase, I'll allocate less.

I'm in no hurry, it may take all year to move the required 2-3%.