My Hands Are Tied

[tsptalk]

Please read this before responding to the poll...

How would you feel about a better service with a small fee?

I am talking about $5 to $10 a month with some features still being free.

It has been more difficult for me to provide a good service to you since I have been banned from the internet at my work. As many of you know, I was given a 14-day unpaid vacation (suspension) for doing this. I used to be able to keep ½ an eye on the market during the morning and make decisions on allocation transfers as late a half hour before the noon ET deadline, then post it on the message board. Now I have to make my decisions the night before so I can get the email alerts out, update the message board with the new allocation and post the new allocation on the allocation website page.

Also at night, I do most of my market research, respond to the many emails I get, read and respond to themessage board posts, update the site with the currentshare prices, make other cosmetic site changes, all which doesn't leave me a lot of time to write up the daily market comments and send out the email alerts.

I also spend a couple hundred dollars each month for services, both investment and website support, to keep the siterunning and up to date. You can see where I am going with this...

I want to be able to help as many people as possible. Being that I have a good paying job, I was never concerned about making a bunch of money on the site. Investing is my hobby and passion. I really want to help people. If I were to give the site my all, meaning running the website fulltime, I would obviously haveto be compensated to replace my current income.Getting my services fulltime rather than a couple of hours a night would greatly enhance the site. There are many things I would like to do but due to my lack of time, I just can't. I'm talking about better market quotes,news feeds, all day support, etc. I have lots of ideas.

I am looking for suggestions and commentson how you think I can pull something like this off without losing a bunch of members. What if I were to keep some of the site free but charge a small feefor other services? I now have over 3000 email alert members and it gets pretty costly to send those emails out. I’ll bet many go unread but the recipient doesn’t realize they can just unsubscribe very easily. Perhaps Icould charge $5 or $10 a month for that service. I would then reveal more info in the email where currently I just put a link to the comments. Or maybe a small fee foran early release of the market comments with a free version coming out later in the day? Suggestions?

I knowpersonally my TSP account has gained over $20,000 since late summer. But it's not when the market is goingup that you will benefit, it's when it is going down and knowing when to lighten up that we really appreciate the insight. I would think $5 or $10 would be a relatively inconsequentialfee forthe information I could convey. That would be less than any one of the many services to which I currently subscribe to help me gather all of this information.

I'm looking for your help. What do you think? I am talking about $5 to $10 a month with some features still being free. Choose any or all that apply.

Thanks for being a part of TSP Talk!
Tom

[Ecurb]

Members,

I don't post often, but I feelI haveto comment about Tom's needto keep the site going. Ilook forward toreading his comments nearly every morning. I enjoy all the posts that are written... I may not always agree with Tom, or the other members, but they make me think. Whether you are an active participant or just someone who reads the posts. This site giveus the opportunity to hear what others, the non professionals, are thinking about anddoing with their TSP accounts. The site encourages regular guys and gals to act on their gut feelings... that little extra push to committowhat they have been thinkingof doing all along.The site has taught me a lot and I for one would hate to see Tom's insight and the web site go away.

Everyone reading this post is obviously a TSP participant, I would think everyone could afford $10-$20 a month for this type of format, and according to Tom the site will improve!!! More info...more knowledge...more profits for US!!!

I'm in how about you?

Bruce

[blue_by_u]

I would pay. I have learned alot here. I think everyone could afford $100 a year. lets do it!!!:^

[coolhand]

Ecurb wrote: More info...more knowledge...more profits for US!!!

I'm in how about you?

Bruce

:^:^:^:cool:

[smine]

I know Tom talks about "lurkers" so maybe there is a way to have user id and password that is tied into dues or something. Relying on some for all may not work. I have been on this site for a while; it's not the only thing I view daily but I do check it daily; not always in agreement but surely more knowledgeable than a year ago.

smine wrote: I know Tom talks about "lurkers" so maybe there is a way to have user id and password that is tied into dues or something. Relying on some for all may not work. I have been on this site for a while; it's not the only thing I view daily but I do check it daily; not always in agreement but surely more knowledgeable than a year ago.


I with you smine maybe something like that could work. I too am not always in agreement but surely more knowledgeable than16 year ago.....:D

Thanks TSPTalk

[tsptalk]

smine wrote: Relying on some for all may not work.
smine, I'm not sure what you meant by that.Can you explain?

I appreciate the feedback.

Thanks!

[SMITTY]

Hello all,

This is my first post since accidently discoveringthis websitein August.Iwould pay a fee. SinceAugust 15th,my tsp account hasgrown by$14,000. Thanks for all the good info and the education. Inow check this site and my account daily. Smitty

[tsptalk]

Welcome Smitty!

[Rod]

You know I have your back on this, Tom. 100%!

As was already said, there needs to be a username/password format. Especially for the message board, and ANYWHERE you post your personalallocations. You don't want that to be "freebie" info.

Honestly, I don't think you should make anything free besides a "trial membership" for whatever amount of time (2 weeks perhaps?).

To those who voted they would never pay a fee- That's rather selfish of you.
We can all afford a nominal membership fee.


BTW, I wouldn't be accepting checks. You would eventually encounter problems with those bouncing. They can just as easily send a money order.

More input to follow...

Thank you, Tom & God Bless!:^

[Rod]

Rod wrote: BTW, I wouldn't be accepting checks. You would eventually encounter problems with those bouncing.




BTW, this is generally speaking. Not directed at all toward those who voted this way.

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote: There are many things I would like to do but due to my lack of time, I just can't. I'm talking about better market quotes,news feeds, all day support, etc. I have lots of ideas.




Hopefully your ideas include that magazine!;)

[Rod]

Tom, I don't see your hands as being "tied". Rather, they have been open- giving generously to each and every one of us.

It's now time for us to give back to you.

God Bless:^

[Mike]

A sliding scale fee structure might be the way to go - not just for what services you want, but also for what you contribute to the site. Let's face it: not all members are created equal. Some contribute more information and insight to the site than others, and I think that ought to be recognized. :P

[dugan]

I could not afford to lose TSP Talk. Heck ya I'd pay!

[oneyoungbuck]

I would definately pay $5- $10 per month. Since I found this website it has been an awesome tool for my retirement plans. Tom, you have given me so much knowledge it is only fair that I give something back to you so as to keep gaining that knowledge. I have turned so many people on to your website. Me and my Postal buddies just love what you do for us. So the answer is YES!!!!

[$hunter]

I'd happily pay a fee. My account has grown exponentially since finding Tom's site and I enjoy logging on each morning and reading his comments. :^

Has anyone else been admonished at work for logging on to this site?

If they hammered Tom with 14 days offthey could also take adverse action against all of us using Gov't computers to learn and actively manage our TSP accounts.:X

[Mike]

Possible but unlikely.

Tom was a target because he linked TSP.gov and got into a mess with them - which led to his agency being notified. He also has a donation button and advertising on the site - which he can make money from - which is a major no-no when you are on government computers / using government time.

[neirbod]

$5-10 monthly would be a small price to pay for all the valuable information and discussion. Count me in!

I do think having some kind of long trial period is important to attract new members. It takes a while to realize the true value of this site, soa short trial period may not suffice. I'd suggest a 90-day free trial period.

Another way we could all help is to spread the word about this site. It would help keep the cost per member down.

Dave

[Ecurb]

Mike wrote: A sliding scale fee structure might be the way to go - not just for what services you want, but also for what you contribute to the site. Let's face it: not all members are created equal. Some contribute more information and insight to the site than others, and I think that ought to be recognized. :P




Mike,

I understand where you are coming from... but it would be hard for Tom to draw the line on who contributes more,and thenset parameters or guide lines explaining why member X is paying less than member Y. For example: Member X mayhave information thathe or shefeels is pertinent and just as advantageous to the site as member Y, but does not receive a lesser rate. Thusbecoming upset with Tom, that their input is notviewedto beimportant enough to be concidered with those who may be paying less,even though they areposting there thoughts on a regular basis on the message board.

I agreeTom could charge members different rates, but as you said, by "services you want" or what they are veiwing onthe site; not by what they feel they are contributing to the site.Which could be a lot more trouble and time consuming for Tom, he needs to spend that timemaintaining and improving the site.

Only my thoughts...

Ecurb

After reading the other posts, I like the annual fee vs monthly using pay pal or CC.

[Mike]

I was thinking of some under the table deals that aren't publicized.

I.e. my contributions net me a stable of attractive women, while member X gets a free subscription to TSPtalk for 6 months. :^

[toddlure]

I would be in favor of paying for this site, a thought. a flat fee per month or a break for one year membership, ie: $10/month, $100/year.
I've learned a lot since finding this site, I log on daily. We're all riding a nice wave right now, but like Tom said, it's when the market goes down and we are properly positioned is where the real win comes in. I will be watching closely as we head into 2005.
Another thought, I have gained tremendously from the posts on this message board, I believe the folks that take the time to post their allocation moves with explanations as to what the thinking is (supporting links etc) should somehow be compensated. Maybe set up a TSP Talk Board, where members must contribute..........? These members would get a 1/2 price break or whatever.
Just brainstorming here,
Thanks Tom, and all who post here!
Todd

[jeeperspeepers]

I too would be willing to pay a $5-10 monthly fee. It may be nice to have an option of signing on for a year at a slightly reduced rate. I agree with some others that mention a longer trial period, possibly 90 days. I plan to promote this site with my fellow employees after the beginning of the year in a meeting held just for this purpose (under the guise of a union meeting). I am going to emphasizehow much my account has grown since I started reading the information on this site, I don't always follow what Tom is doing, but I always read him.

Paypal is the best way to accept payment in my opinion. Thanks, Tom for all your time and efforts. It has paid off to most of us.

[norbertlopez2001]

Tom. you provide a very useful service and as such are deserving of a fee. Whether you decide on this or not, I'll gladly mail you a contribution. But I feel more comfortable doing it by check and mail. Tell me to where and to whom. Thanks.

norbertlopez2001

[fedgolfer]

I just joined. I would pay $5-10 or a yearly fee at a reduced rate. But I wouldn't pay much more. I've done fairly well with TSP on my own but like the idea of using this site and others as confirmation for my ITF's/allocations and market sentiment.Playingdevil's advocate,I really just see this site used for confirmation and discussion for most investors with some experience. So charging any more may deter potential paying members. Being a newcomer to this site, I have yet tosee the benefit of this site yet during bear markets, oscillating or consolidating markets yet. Like the other posters have said, that is when the true value of this site will be felt by its members.

Thanks, Tom. If there were more altruistic investors like you, willing to share their knowledge and advice, we'd all be retiring a lot earlier.

[SBU22]

I just signed up as a member, but I would definitely pay 5-10 a month for your insight, Tom! No one should have to give out free info for free! You provide a great service and you should be commended for doing so for free all this time.

[CSI]

I think the info you provide is of value. Even though I do not always follow your advice, it helps me make my allocation changes. I have done well this yr so far. I would definitely pay a fee for your info. Rather than a monthly fee, I think a yearly fee would be better. This is the first time I have posted, maybe next yr I will become more active.

CSI

[vectorman]

Tom, when you say that you have gained over 20,000 dollars since the summer,does that amount also includethe money that you pay in monthly?

[Luz]

I'm with you. I think it is logical to charge fees on these services. What about providing options i.e. every month, bi-annual, annual or quarterly and give discounts to those who pay in full for 1 year. I have learned a lot since Istarted reading your site and have recommended it to my friends.

[tsptalk]

vectorman wrote: Tom, when you say that you have gained over 20,000 dollars since the summer,does that amount also includethe money that you pay in monthly?
No. I'm basing that on the 16% - 17% gain I've had since then. It is actually closer to $30,000.

[tsptalk]

I appreciate the feedback everyone. Just as an FYI in case you were wondering. I do make some money with the Google ads. Probably enough to cover most of my expenses at this point. I also tried banner ads last spring butthey did not get a very good response at all. If I can find an alternative to making you pay, I would try it. I have contacted Geico a couple of times earlier this year (seemed like the perfect match) but they have ignored my requestfor being an advertiser. Maybe now that we have over 3000 members I'll get their attention.:)

Thanks gain everyone!
Tom

[JonesH2O]

I just joined. I would pay $5-10 or a yearly fee at a reduced rate. But I wouldn't pay much more.

[JerBer]

Tom, I'm with everyone else...I may not always follow your moves, but I am light years ahead of last year when it comes to TSP knowledge thanks to you and your website! I would gladly subscribe if and when you decide to charge for your services.

I think Paypal would be the way to go.

Thanks again for your hard work and dedication in helping your fellow government workers. I think you deserve a commendation medal!!

JerBer

[missile]

This is a great service, I would certainly pay a fee. Its been needed for sometime. I didn't join the TSP orginally because of the lack of sound advice from the board. Keep up the good work.

[ou81200]

Tom---

Have you thought about not posting e-mail alerts to every e-mail address, but posting alerts on this site only. That would put the responsibility on us to access your site. Not you accessing our e-mail addresses. Maybe this would keep you out of trouble with you job.



Chuck

[Pineapple]

I failed to read your posting before voting. I sent in a contribution and would suggest that a contribution be required for access. In that manner, each of us could donate what we believe the service is worth rather than a flat fee.

14 days? Did they put spyware on your computer?

[teknobucks]

Tom

perhaps your wife should run this site offically...."wink wink".

mayhelp alleviate any federal conflict of interest.

yes i would be glad to pay....prefer check or credit card.

[Carp]

I'm new, and I'd pay $5-10 a month for services. It sure beats paying Ameritrade or Etrade a price per trade! I prefer paying for a whole year at a reduced cost. This website is an excellent service for the NEWWBIE as well as the experienced trader.

Sign me up!:^

~Carp

[Copper]

An office mate turned me on to this site and I am so tickled as well as appreciative that he did. :^

He has always been good at investing but I have not had the time or the inclination to really take this on. I did not join TSP while I was active duty but now that I am a civil servant I figured it was a good way to build on the future.

I would be willing to pay a fee and do not mind using a credit card or paypal. Thank you for all your efforts and hope we have a great year in 2005!!!

[Spaf]

Hey Tom

I'd go for a flat charge for full membership. The email alerts could be an optional additional charge. I generally read your transfers and comments on the web site.

Full membership would have certain benifits. Other items added on at additional charge. Folks that just want the email alerts could have other options.

You could have guest, alert members, full members, etc. etc.

Rgds :) Spaf

[tsptalk]

ou81200 wrote: Have you thought about not posting e-mail alerts to every e-mail address, but posting alerts on this site only. That would put the responsibility on us to access your site. Not you accessing our e-mail addresses. Maybe this would keep you out of trouble with you job.
It was being on the message board that caused a lot of thetrouble. Too much internet time.

[tsptalk]

Thanks again for all of the feedback. I guess the reason I cringe at the thought of asking for a fee is that I will come across as just another pay site, which I don't want to be. A new person may come on the site and assume it's another one of those sites making outrageous claims. The site has been free for a year so most of you know that's not what this site is or, what I'm about. You justget straight forward info, comments, suggestions and sometimes correct answers.:)

Maybe someone wants to hear that I can make them 20 or 30% a year, every year,but anyone who has invested for any length of time knows that is just unrealistic. The question is, will people keep coming if there is a fee? I guess the best way to handle that is to offer free trials and let them see what it's all about, as you all have seen over the last year.

Thanks again!!
Tom

[FundSurfer]

Reading all the post, I guess I realized I'm out of the norm. I'm not on the e-mail list. I come to the message board primarily. I'm also not willing to pay anything to be a member of just a message board. Why? Because the traffic generated will generate revenue. I ran a message board for several years and just as Tom has said, just a few ads will pay the board rent. I'll also add that you Tom should investigate some other ad options that can be more profitable than google.

Now as to Toms market comments, I agree that if Tom is spending a bunch of time producing them and you are reading them and following his moves (Tom: I think this is the key) then compensation is in order. Personally, I don't follow Tom's moves. I do read Tom's comments occasionally, but actually look at other sites for market info as well. $5 a month is $60 a year. I think this would be reasonable for the e-mail service.

Now Tom, I will start paying for your moves when you consistantly beat the market in a little safer manner. Right now you have been moving more like a day trader. I realize that you are trying to beat the market and come back from losses in July, but I think it has made you a little reckless. I also realize that you have been warning people that you are getting really risky and I'm glad that you have.

Bottom line: I appreciate the message board (and have donated) but wouldn't pay for the e-mail/daily update. You could easily change my mind when we go through some rougher water and I see your insite paying dividends.

[namor]

My two cents:

I agree with some ofFundsurfer's points. I, too,don't come here for anybody's info or recommendations,just to 'talk' TSP. I don't put anything intoany 'system' oranalysis.I would never pay for a message board, so I am not a pay candidate and definitely won't be here "when" it goes pay, because I can talk tsp on any of a numberof free message boards. BUT, this site's future lies in the pay market.As a web designer myself, I have some suggestions for Tom:

It has been three hours since I last posted to my account talk and I still can't see my message.Isaw the usual "error" message and after checking, I saw I had posted but could stillnot see my message. Not good. I don't mind, but ifa pay site had that kind oflag, I'd want my money back. Get that fixed.

This site has awakened a lot of people. Tom, they will come here for your advice. Sell it. It might make more than your TSP account times ten eventually. BUT, let it run free until you get a few more free subscribers. THEN make it a pay site. I'd go until I got 25,000 subscribers, and you know 2/3 of themwould pay.

You might lose a little money at first waiting, but you always bet on the come. (craps term) Get some more lemmings hooked and it will pay you in multiples more in the future.

Good luck Tom. You havebuilt it and they will come. I am proud to say I was here somewhere close to the beginning.

[tsptalk]

It would seem rather counter productive of me to lose the folks that don't particulary need the site because they have enough investment knowledge. FundSurfer's contributionsandtallying of those account returns which has saved me a bunch of time. Namor doesn't really add any market insight but it has been entertaining and educational to watch his extremely aggressive approach to managing his TSP account. I may have to rethink how it will work.

I agree a message board shouldprobably be one of thefree services. The more the merrier for sure. The problem would be of people sharing information that others are paying for. I'm not sure if some forums can be members only but I'll research it.

One thing I will add is that I would be surprised if someone who isa regular decided not to stick around because of a $5 a month fee. I figure at $1.56 a cup, I spend about $40 to $50 a month on coffee each month. ;) OK, that's not a great investment and Suzi Orman would probably smack me, but you know what I mean. :)

[NSX]

Tom, I'm with you. You deserve to be reimbursed to the extent possible for your analysis and the cost of doing business and anyone who visits your site and acts on the information you provide to us is profiting. I certainly have. :^

Count me in and name your price.

Happy New Year and again, many, many thanks.

Don in Germany

U.S. Forces

[surftrader]

Well, I am new here but somewhat well versed at trading. I voted against paying but that is because I like to manage my own money and have found over the last few months that I manage my money very differently than Tom. For instance, I have been committed to the I fund since mid November and very happy with my results. I couldn't understand why Tom was against it and then was really suprised to see him jump in the last few days. This is somewhat irrational behavior for an individual expecting to be paid for his advice.

I enjoy the board and reading everyone's logic about their moves, but would be gone in a heartbeat if it cost money. Tom, I would follow the advice of others and build a larger client base before you go w/ a service charge. You have only tapped the very tip of the iceburg and will lose out on a big chunk if you charge now. If only 3000 out of god knows how many TSP participants are on your site while it is free, imagine how few more will join if they have to pay to experience your services. From a marketing standpoint, I would actually invest some money right now in trying to at least triple your membership and then go for the fee system. Look at it this way, if only 70 people have voted out of 3000, you can expect 2500 + to drop out if a fee is initiated. Not only do you kill your profits, your banner revenue falls as well. Good luck though, I completely understand.

[tsptalk]

surftrader wrote: For instance, I have been committed to the I fund since mid November and very happy with my results. I couldn't understand why Tom was against it and then was really suprised to see him jump in the last few days. This is somewhat irrational behavior for an individual expecting to be paid for his advice.

Welcome new folks! Thanks again for the feedback on the fee dilemma. I appreciate it!

But I got to jump in here.I am a lot of things, but irrational is not one of them. Since mid-Nov (15th) the S fund is up 5.4% and the I fund is up 5.1% . Nota big difference but nothing for the I fund to brag about. I also explained repeatedly why I felt the U.S. funds would be lessaffected by the dollar and thus a "safer" bet through the end of the year. I never said the I fund would do better or worse during that time, just more uncertain because of the dollar.

I also gave the reason why I went 50% into the I fund this week and also toldfolks not to follow me becauseof that reason of trying to catch the S&P 500.If I make that move aday earlier,I look likea genius. (The one day delay hurt me Monday.)

[NEWYORKMBA]

$100 a year sounds fair to me. :D

[mjhayden]

Hi,

This is my first post. I have been using this site since spring '04. Unfortunately I can't login and check the comments every day because I travel frequently for my job. Even though I missed some important transfers I am still up at least 20K since joining. I don't know anything about trading so I don't think I could have done that without this service. I would pay for this service.

Thanks Tom! Sorry to hear about your work suspension.

Mike

[LX280]

Tom.

I have only been around for about three weeks so, I can not comment on the value of your advise.I don't think that thewebsite shouldcost you anything (out of pocket) to operate even if it only started outas a hobby.I can alsoseeyouearning money ontop of that for your (off duty)time.

Inyour post you stated:

"I now have over 3000 email alert members and it gets pretty costly to send those emails out. I’ll bet many go unread but the recipient doesn’t realize they can just unsubscribe very easily. Perhaps Icould charge $5 or $10 a month for that service".

If you keep even half of themat only $5.00 a monththat's $7,500 dollars! at $10.00 dollarsyour talking "FIFTEEN THOUSAND DOLLARS". Unless my math is wrong. And if you keep all 3000 subscribersyour now talking $30,000.00 a month.

In my humble opinion it can't cost anyware near that much to operate the site (I can't speak tothe value of your advise)and send out emailor you would have never started the site to begin with. Now I realizethat your not happy about your14 day suspension from work.To leave your agencyand get even withthe "Man" would be great.And, if you didlike you stated: "I would obviously haveto be compensated to replace my current income".

Using the $7,500.00a month figure ($90K) a year. Not bad at all. $180K even better. Maybe,im in the wrong business.Who needs a 401k at that rate.

"Best Wishesto you Tom& All of the members of TSP Talk inthe new year!"

[a&kamb]

Members,

We will support Tom if a payment is required for his services in regards to keeping our TSP making money. Hisinsight and advice has made our TSPs grow substantially.:D

[surftrader]

Tom, I think I was misunderstood. I wasn't trying to brag or insult your decision, I was trying to relate them to how you offer advice and what the future will look like if you sell your insight. Obviously you want to grow your site and that will mean obtaining somenew customers. People are instantly going to expect more when they pay for something. New customers will most likely on average be more dependent on your advice. Your moves need to be strongly supported and you will not be able to do things likespending a week calling a fund volatile and iffy (you may have used other words) and then dump 50% of your account in there for no other reason than to beat the market. I know you put a disclaimer up as to why you were doing this, but if you have people paying for your services they are going to be upset if you tell them one thing and then you do another. So again, I was just trying to point out that if you choose to charge, you might lose the ability to gamble as much as you have in the past.

Now back to your B-plan:

One of the reasons why I wouldn't pay is that I have a method that looks for 2 week to 2 month trends. I don't move money around as much as you and have no desire to ever do so. I respect what you do, but I honestly think the market for people who are willing to move money around as much as you is very, very small.

I would send a mass email out to all 3000 users and see if it gets a better response than your poll. +/- 100 people will pay the bills, but it won't let you quit your day job.

It looks like the message board is the most popular thing on your site. You could either keep that for free to attract new customers or charge for this service because it has the largest user base.

[RI Yank]

SMITTY wrote: Hello all,

This is my first post since accidently discoveringthis websitein August.Iwould pay a fee..... Thanks for all the good info and the education. Inow check this site and my account daily. Smitty

Tom: Smitty "accidently discovered" your site and I only learned of this monthfrom Ecurb of Clearwater, FL when our conversationwent off on a tangent and we started talking about TSP. I think youneed to expand your base to more people before/if you start a fee for service.

Does everyone accidently find you? My question is how do you let people know your site exists?

If you charge a monthy fee - is it tax deductable????

[tsptalk]

surftrader wrote: I honestly think the market for people who are willing to move money around as much as you is very, very small.
Good point. I guess I could have short / mid / and long term allocation recommendations and email alerts with different pricing. Thanks.

LX280 wrote:
If you keep even half of themat only $5.00 a monththat's $7,500 dollars! at $10.00 dollarsyour talking "FIFTEEN THOUSAND DOLLARS". Unless my math is wrong. And if you keep all 3000 subscribersyour now talking $30,000.00 a month.

In my humble opinion it can't cost anyware near that much to operate the site (I can't speak tothe value of your advise)and send out emailor you would have never started the site to begin with. Now I realizethat your not happy about your14 day suspension from work.To leave your agencyand get even withthe "Man" would be great.And, if you didlike you stated: "I would obviously haveto be compensated to replace my current income".

Using the $7,500.00a month figure ($90K) a year. Not bad at all. $180K even better. Maybe,im in the wrong business.Who needs a 401k at that rate.
I doubt I'll get that many people to sign up initially, maybe some day,but I'm being paid for not only my advice and what I know, but my time. I put a ton of time into this site over the last year or two to get it going.

Maybe you are in the wrong business. If you have 20 years investing experience, and 17 years programming experience (I'm new to internet programming :) how much do you think your time is worth? I'm sure there are others with similar background but I took the time (in my spare time) to create this site to help others. This is more work than my 83K job I am considering giving up. I still have to house and feed my family. It's not just about covering my costs. Plus at some point I would probably have to hire someone to help me out as the site is growing faster than ever. I currently respond tosome 20+ emails a night. Multiply that by 10 if the site goes to 25,000 members as some suggested. :shock:

Like I said, if anyone can give me alternatives, and I'm not sure banner ads are the answer, I'm all ears.

Thanks,
Tom

[tsptalk]

RI Yank wrote: Tom: Smitty "accidently discovered" your site and I only learned of this monthfrom Ecurb of Clearwater, FL when our conversationwent off on a tangent and we started talking about TSP. I think youneed to expand your base to more people before/if you start a fee for service.

Does everyone accidently find you? My question is how do you let people know your site exists?



Most of the members come by word of mouth, but I pay Googe and sometimes Yahoo (Overture) to get listed in the search engines. Go to Google or Ask Jeeves and type "tsp help" or"tsp fund alloaction" and you'll see my ads. On Google you should see me on the right and in the regular ads.
If you charge a monthy fee - is it tax deductable????
I think it would be but there are limitation. It has to be over acertain %of your AGI for it to qualify I believe.

[jgpalmerdds]

Tom,

I found this site (originally) back in March '04 from a Google search. I think a good thread to post along with the "Would you pay" thread would be "How did you find this site" thread. Yeah, you could do a poll, but a thread would give you more insight as to how you are obtaining members. I'm not sure what to tell you about the e-mails every night as I have e-mailed you before and appreciated the timely advice/response. Like others have said, you could leave the comments "free" but charge for the alert part and message board. You may be running into some liability issues if you are charging for your advice only. I don't know alot about those things. Maybe someone else could elaborate on this. By the way, the people throwing the party (this site) for everyone else to enjoy shouldn'tbe the ones paying for it out of their own pocket (I call this the Class reunion rule) Later

Joel

[pyriel]

Hmmm... Let me calculate the numbers here?

Members paying now = zero (0)

Members who might not be willing to pay = I'd say worst case scenario (90%).

Members who might be willing to pay = Again, worst case scenario, (10%).

A possible $3,000.00 (based on $10 contribution) per month not including the advertisements. That will be about $36K per year.

Namor's point of view about keeping this site free for a little while longer and getting more members before turning it into a paysite might be more beneficial for you. As for me, i'd pay. I consider myself pretty well versed when it comes into real estateinvestment, but I need more guidance and educationinmanaging my paper asset. I feel that this site has helped metremendously.

[ou81200]

Tom---

You've done a wonderful job with this site since it's conception. To any savy investor, it would beridiculous to assume that they would make 20- 30 % annually guranteed.

I'm confident that most people here would pay a fee to have continued service. As for the other "lurkers" on this site. After a few months being on their own, they would probably decide to do the same.

With people who frequent this site now. I'm sure you could get enough revenue to at least pay for the paid sites that you have. IMO, this is something we should all be contributing to since we all benefit from it.

[JOTT]

Tom, you preform a very good service and I support you on this endever. I am sorry you had a run in with your management. I would like to see, if we are going to pay a fee that you might even comment on some individual stock picks and or anyother financial intrest that might be helpful. I follow your comments everyday, and like the others look forward to reading them everyday.:^

[namor]

I wonder if anyone would be interested in some sports book tips?

I'd be happy to comment on some upcoming bowl games, or the Derby, etc. Of course, compared to TSP, sports wagering is the hardest thing I have ever had to do. But it ISa form of investing. And there are so many underground bookies out there, you don't even have to be in Vegas. Not sure? Ask a bartender. They will just laugh at first, but if they see you are serious, they can point you where the action is.

I LIKE the idea of individual stock tips messages. If anyone has a brokerageaccount, this could be quite fun.

Just some thoughts. Tell me ifI am "off my rocker," Rod.

[tsptalk]

JOTT wrote: I would like to see, if we are going to pay a fee that you might even comment on some individual stock picks and or anyother financial intrest that might be helpful. I follow your comments everyday, and like the others look forward to reading them everyday.:^
You read my mind. If I am going to have more free time someday, I do plan to do more individual stock trading. I was thinking that could be included or extra, depending how I set that up.

[Ironsidesusa]

Tom,

I am a CSRS Federal retiree (35 years of service) who has been in the TSP for quite a while. I find you insight on things an invaluable resource to guide me in making the right decisions about my funds. Based upon what I have seen here I would be willing to pay $5 to $10 per month foran upgrade in services. Also (a littlefather?/brotherly (I am 58) ? advice -I am not sure how many years you have in Federal Servicebut I am sure you know Federal jobs have a lot of positives that can't be matched elsewhere. I would hate to see you jump ship. FederalRetirement is GREAT!

[nsynch]

Hi Tom. I’m a newbee and didn’t think I would jump on the board just yet but had to write. I just found your website 2 weeks ago by doing an engine search on MSN and was actually surprised that the site didn’t cost a fee. I was hoping to find a source out there that could educate me and help me with how to manage my TSP. When I stumbled onto your site, I was so excited! I only wished I would have found it a year ago. I enjoy the diversity, opinions and different strategies on the message board forums and ESPECIALLY look forward to your daily postings. I’m hooked!I’ve learned a bit already and am looking forward to following you and being more active/strategic in the management of my allocations. There are going to be different camps on the fee issue and I think the those most financially astute will be a little more resistant but I feel that most fed employees are probably not that savy when it comes to their TSP and the markets. I see it all around me at all levels and that is probably the norm. People don’t take the time or don’t have time so your site helps pull it all together. I think you provide a wonderful service and hope this continues to grow and wish you success. I’d be willing to pay especially if you expand you site and provide additional services. I think the investment in the education/knowledge will have bigger dividends in the end. The key is to have a good marketing plan and let people know about the site. A free trial period would be excellent…it worked for other giant internet services. I’ve shared your site with a couple of folks and now they’ve been lurking your site. Maybe you can give one month free to a member for each person that they refer and sign up! Thanks again and am glad you found your niche!:^
PS: Only 97 voted but that is probably a pretty statistically valid sample and 91% would pay for some level of service

[Rod]

I'm just happy to see all of the "lurker's" comments!:cool:

Welcome y'all!:^

[Safetyguy]

Here is my 2 cents --

Since I found this site a few months ago, I have turned on about 30 other people to it. My guess is that many of them would never pay a dime for the site, they enjoy the commentary and some evenfollow Tom's suggestions to the T (blindly it seems?).

Once the "viewership" goes up (and it seems that it will go up exponentially if everyone spreads the word like I have), I would do like other free websites -- advertising.

The key I think is that Tom cannot do this gigfull time -- he has a phoney baloney gov't job to keep. Based on the cost of other financial websites, $100/yr brings a certain level of expectation -- both in website quality and the quality of investment advice.

My other questions is how much revenue is needed to make this a break even proposition. Tom hinted at a few hundred per month. If the price is $100/yr you will have a fewer number of subscribers that if the price were $5-10/yr. Both of these monthly "charges" probably can bring Tom to a break even and/or a small profit. However, I think 100 year would generate a very small number of subscribers and kill the spirit of this thing in the long run. Better to have 2,000 cheapskates than 30 diehards (and that is better for advertisers too).

In any case, fee or pay, you should make registration/log in required. It will be interesting to see how many unique users you really have.

So my preference would be to keep it free and do as best you can with advertising. If that proves to be unfeasible, go with something like $10/year -- at most.

[Pilgrim]

Tom,

Rather than leaving federal service entirely, why don't you see if your agency would allow you to reduce your appointment to half time (assuming the site really makes money). That way, you are still in the system, qualify for the great insurance benefits when you really retire, etc. Ideally you could spend all morning on the site and go to work after the tsp transfer cuttof time. Just a thought

[Dave M]

I pay a small fee to post on another site, www.consimworld.com (http://www.consimworld.com), like maybe $25 a year. Here I think I would be content to lurk, for free. I don't imagine anyone would pay to hear my advice, heh, but I am interested in what others have to say.

Lurk for free; pay up to $25/yr to join and hence post.

Dave

[tsptalk]

Thanks again everyone. You have said some very nice things and have given me more to think about. Adding advertising may give me a few more bucks each month but it didn't go over well when I first tried it. Of course membership has increased substantially since then and it could really take off, I don't know. Like I said I would love to make this site much better but the one thing I don't have is time. Some of you know my wife and I also own an art/antique gallery so I am really stretching myself thin. Going part time may be a great idea. Itwould allow me to be online through the TSP daily deadline, work on some site advancement in the morning etc.

I wouldn't have thought it a year ago butone thing I worry about now is being fired. I have been an exemplary employee (or so I thought) but due to the severity of the disciplinary action I'm guessing I really pissed some people off. I didn't fight the suspension because I'm the type of person to just say 'sorry', let's get the suspension over with' rather make a big stink. I got along with my boss and I guess I didn't want to make waves. Now I question his motivation. I was actually looking forward to the 2 weeks off. But I have since had people tell me that the next step after a 14-day suspesion is termination. I have over 20 years in as a FERS employee and actually think I have more to lose if I stay. My wife works for the same agancy so we would keep our benefits. Tough choice but I would like it to be my choice rather than theirs. :shock:

Thanks again for thefeedback!
Tom

[grandma]

Tom, I see 97 responses to a poll posted 4 days during Christmas week. I know this is a tough mind (and gut)-wrenching problem for you. Do you have a counter for hits to this site? I am not sure how informatic that would be since I for one access it at three different times during the day. Another thing: if the E-mail alerts were free for only a month, then that address dropped off the list- surely by that time the person would know if if they were interested enough to check out your Comment page on their own, daily or otherwise. That would save a great deal of time if you are dealing w/3000 now. Also, `yearly pay only' would reduce an unmentioned problem thus far of bookkeeping. For those who might not be able to do that, a quarterly fee could reflect a larger cost d/t thebookkeepingfactor. There are those of us who pour over Every comment written. I wouldn't want tolose any one of these `Regulars'input. My gains have been because of this, your Brainchild,' yes, but Not because of your allocations. They arebecause of
Everyone's
[line]

[line]
(oops - sorry about that !! :'that wasn't the underlineemphasis button - and right in the middle of a Serious dissertation!!)
postings since I started `lurking.' Will all of those who have shared so willingly, who have interacted so freely, who have made this place what it is today, will they pay to continue doing that?

...do you need a Board ofDirectors?

I voted I would pay, but you know, that was paying for what I have now. And I will pay, yes, but I will mourn if we lose anyone.

- if entreprenuir is what you want to be, may God Bless you and your family in this decision. ...I must agree. tho- leaving the security of gov't retirment benefits as we understand & havethem at this time is something you & your wife have to agree on.

Hopefully you weren't planning on making a decision by Jan 1, 2005 !!!

pat

[grandma]

Tom,your last post apparently came in while I was typing mine...if termination is an issue, that is a whole new ballgame. Resigning d/t taking on `tsptallk.com ' fulltime is an admirable item on a resume, I should think, especially your reasons for starting it to begin with. Again, it is you and your wife who make the decison, and ultimately you. Go with God.....

[tsptalk]

grandma wrote: Do you have a counter for hits to this site? I am not sure how informatic that would be since I for one access it at three different times during the day.
Here's the last 2 month's figures...

Month of 12/1/2004 to 12/31/2004
Important Totals

Executive SummaryThe web site received 141,391 visits. A typical visitor examined 9.38 documents before leaving the site. A typical visit lasted for 1.47 minutes. The longest visit lasted for 303 minutes.

Visitors came from 18,576 distinct Internet addresses.


Month of 11/1/2004 to 11/30/2004
Important Totals

Executive SummaryThe web site received 105,711 visits. A typical visitor examined 8.97 documents before leaving the site. A typical visit lasted for 1.42 minutes. The longest visit lasted for 416 minutes.

Visitors came from 13,716 distinct Internet addresses.

[zbwmy]

I was not able to vote before the poll ended. I would probably pay. I keep thinking did this come up because of all the TSP Pilot talk?

Mark

[retiredcg]

Tom -

Though I have only been on a short while, it is readily apparent that this site should go on; that for many it is filling a void which should actually be taken care of at the agency or Administration level. You andyour other members may have differing opinions at times, but the openness that shows in the various posts affords aperspective for a wide diversity of motivated investors. I for one would gladly pay the 5 or 10 dollars per month for the ability to consider the views of others who are far more insightful than I. Considering, as an aggregate, just how much money we waste on crud every month, your dues would be a drop in the proverbial bucket.

As far as numbers of members, I can only offer you this: At my workplace, ina volunteer collateral position, I am a Command Financial Specialist,keeping in contact with literally thousands of people per year by means of training, bulletin board postings, advisory board meetings, etc. Returning to work after the holidays next week rest assured that I will put TSP Talk and what it does and can do out in front of these folks. Iwill also pass tothe other agency coordinators I keep in touch with of this site and its usefulness, and hopefully, the word will spread.

You just keep on doing the right thing here... and they will come!:^ All the best to you in this New Year!

Jim

[Pilgrim]

Tom,



If they are out to get you, going part time is dangerous. Terminating you for cause is a long, drawn-out procedure but a RIF could always eliminate a position. Under RIF rules, part time people are removed before any full time people are reached. Be careful!



Pilgrim

[Dave M]

I wouldn't worry about it if I were you. There's nothing you can do. But then, how strong or effective is your union, and are you a member?

I ran afoul of the NOAA travel regs once during a PCS move and was required to serve a two week suspension. We set it up to bridge two pay periods. Within a couple of years I was promoted off station, no problem. My supervisors gave me glowing recomendations. Were they merely anxious to get rid of me? Heh.

Dave

[merlynda]

I just stumbled across this site and in fact changed my fund allocation. Please do not charge a fee to use this site. This site is what I hoped the internet would be about.... Folks helping folks.

Please advertise your paypal donation andask people to heavily contribute to this site. Sort of like shareware ... if you find the site valuable contribute.


-Thanks

[LX280]

Tom,

Just food for thought. (remember.....I'm new to this)

When TSP went to daily valuations of accountsI don't think that they expected TSP investors to actively (or, almost "Day Trade") their acounts. You may find that sometime in the future thatthe board of directors (governing board)of the TSP may try and change the rules and limit the number (or, how offten) allocation changes can be made. Or, they may just try and make your life hard.If more and more people start to follow your advise you very well may "spot light" yourself via your website.

Please comment on this if you will......

Thanks!

[Greg R.]

Poll responses
Yes to #: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8.

[tsptalk]

retiredcg wrote: I will put TSP Talk and what it does and can do out in front of these folks. Iwill also pass tothe other agency coordinators I keep in touch with of this site and its usefulness, and hopefully, the word will spread.
Thanks Jim! I appreciate that.

[tsptalk]

zbwmy wrote: I was not able to vote before the poll ended. I would probably pay. I keep thinking did this come up because of all the TSP Pilot talk?

Mark

SorryMark. I didn't mean to close the poll. It should be open again.

This didn't have to do with tsp pilot but rather that I am not allowed on the site during working hours and it has been difficult to get good, up to date info out. Since my suspension at work, I am considering leaving my job, or possibly going fulltime, so I can devote more time to maing this a better site. But I'd have to be sure I can still feed my family before I can d o that. :)

[tsptalk]

LX280 wrote: Tom,

Just food for thought. (remember.....I'm new to this)

When TSP went to daily valuations of accountsI don't think that they expected TSP investors to actively (or, almost "Day Trade") their acounts. You may find that sometime in the future thatthe board of directors (governing board)of the TSP may try and change the rules and limit the number (or, how offten) allocation changes can be made. Or, they may just try and make your life hard.If more and more people start to follow your advise you very well may "spot light" yourself via your website.
Hi LX -
That is a possibility but with 3,000 or even 25,000 membersthis site is a small drop in the bucket compared to the size of the gov't. I read that only a very small % even make transfers, although we may be changing that slightly.

My thinking is that it is just a little more data processing. I would suggest requestingelectronic rather than mailed confirmations. That makes it even more transparent.

[tsptalk]

Greg R. wrote:
Poll responses
Yes to #: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8.
Welcome Greg, and thanks!

[volman]

It's fascinating to watch capitalism at its best. Looks like a hair raising venture w/ great prospects. I have been a daily viewer sinceFeb 04.

Tom, lot's of great advice coming from men and women I respect more than anyone on this earth (my fellow men and women in the service, both military and civil.) Tough decisions must be made by those of impeccable character.

Make your own decision, Tom. Looks like all will follow; At least to some extent....... ROLL ON!

Volman

[tsptalk]

Wow, Feb 04? Excellent!

Thanks for your support!

Tom

[Wheels]

A few thoughts on this subject, albeit as little late.

1. Tom, I am sure you have already considered this but if you leave your job you not only have to replace 30K, 40K, or 50K in salary but you need to consider health insurance, life insurance, loss of pension, etc, etc...

2. You might want to wait (as several above have suggested) for more people on the board AND for a little bit better proven track record. (In other words, crush the S&P for a year and then ask people to pay to follow you).

3. If you should decide to venture out, it was nice to see so many lurkers come out of the wood work in support of you.

4. Lastly, I probably wouldn't pay much (maybe $5) because I was already pretty actice with my TSP funds when I found your site but I do enjoy putting my ideas up against others. I am also finding the spreadsheet that you offered last year and the new and improved one this year very helpful so for those I will be firing off a PayPal donation right now.

Dave

[buybest]

I recently posted a comment about the transfer time of day, see msg board: without the ability to "get a transfer done"up to themarket close greatly limits our ability to stop losses. Unfortunatelymost info posted on tsp talk is basedon a 4hr lead time. That leaves a wide gap for things to change.Granted there are quit a bit of other facts andinfo also posted but one of the best investment principals is knowing when to be out of equities in orderto limithuge dips.I believe if thischange is made to the tsp operation then tsptalk would merit some form of membership fee/charges for posting up to date market conditions.

[tsptalk]

buybest wrote: Granted there are quit a bit of other facts andinfo also posted but one of the best investment principals is knowing when to be out of equities in orderto limithuge dips.I believe if thischange is made to the tsp operation then tsptalk would merit some form of membership fee/charges for posting up to date market conditions.
That's it bestbuy. I either have to give you this 75% effort because of my job, or I can give 100% but I have that salary I'd have to make up. The site would definitely be better and more timely.

wheelswrote:
I probably wouldn't pay much (maybe $5) because I was already pretty actice with my TSP funds when I found your site but I do enjoy putting my ideas up against others. I am also finding the spreadsheet that you offered last year and the new and improved one this year very helpful so for those I will be firing off a PayPal donation right now.


Thanks wheels! I really appreciate that donation.I pay close to $200 a month just for all of the investment services I use. I take it all in (commentary, charts, graphs, sentiment figures, stats etc.) and pass it on to you in my daily comments and email alerts with my spin on things. I think the price I would be asking is quite reasonable for all that information that you can't get anywhere else for that price. Your donation sure helps keep that going right now.

Thanks again,
Tom

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote: buybest wrote: Granted there are quit a bit of other facts andinfo also posted but one of the best investment principals is knowing when to be out of equities in orderto limithuge dips.I believe if thischange is made to the tsp operation then tsptalk would merit some form of membership fee/charges for posting up to date market conditions.
That's it bestbuy.
Hey Tom... been shopping at BestBuy lately???;)

I have! I just purchased a new laptop!:^

BTW, his name is buybest!!!:D

[tsptalk]

:' Thanks Rod.

So did you buy the best laptop? :)

[rodneywa2002]

I have been to this site quite a few times, but only logged on today. Great site

I made a REALLY SMALL donation today, then I came across these posts

I would only pay with Paypal

I'm only pay grade WG-1 step one, $10 would cut into other important stuff like beer

how about a small flat flee for occasional use then more up to 10$ for a lot of use?

$120a year iscurrently 10% of my TSP account

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote: :' Thanks Rod.

So did you buy the best laptop? :)
The best I could afford!!!;)

Compaq V2000:^

[tsptalk]

rodneywa2002 wrote: I have been to this site quite a few times, but only logged on today. Great site

I made a REALLY SMALL donation today, then I came across these posts

I would only pay with Paypal

I'm only pay grade WG-1 step one, $10 would cut into other important stuff like beer

how about a small flat flee for occasional use then more up to 10$ for a lot of use?

$120a year iscurrently 10% of my TSP account

Welcome rodney!

Point taken. I will take everything into consideration if I change things.

Thanks for the donation!
Tom

Tom,

You want to keep the # of members growing since it would likely help you re: advertising dollars. So, charging for access to the entire site...at least at first, might not be the best idea. My recommendation is to, at first, charge for special or extra research services (charts/analysis et al) and see how it goes...

Hey, I have another idea. How about keeping records of how well the different members do in TSP and give awards to the top trader for a given period (quarterly? monthly?) You charge people who want to enter the contest and give awards to the winners. The difference helps to keep the site up.

(Hope that helps!) :)

[tsptalk]

Thanks saraho. We think alike. I started the membership accounts with the intention of doing something like that. I just haven't had time to get it started and I don't want Fundsurfer taking the responsibility for tracking it. I doubt I willcharge to get in though. But one day I will do that. :)

Tom

tsptalk wrote: Thanks saraho. We think alike. I started the membership accounts with the intention of doing something like that. I just haven't had time to get it started and I don't want Fundsurfer taking the responsibility for tracking it. I doubt I willcharge to get in though. But one day I will do that. :)

Tom How about "free" membership" for the next month, quarter, or what ever time frame you use?

[tsptalk]

tsptorture wrote: How about "free" membership" for the next month, quarter, or what ever time frame you use?
For the winner? Good idea.

[Mike]

The winner of such competition would need this site the least though... :P

If I beat the mean return of the accounts here, I'll be happy - I definitely haven't been a top performer thus far. :shock:

If you want to win, do the opposite of me - you'll probably be a millionaire within 3 years.:^

[azanon]

My 2 cents is you'd have to start consistently beating the trained monkey to justify it first. I mean that as gently as I can say it. (trained monkey = 20% to all).

The trained monkey takes no effort at all (well, except for rebalancing every year or quarter, or whatever you prefer), and is always going to produce quite respectible results (simply because if you "rebalance" a balanced fund, you cant help but buylow and sell high).

It takes time and energy to "daytrade" or weektrade, to characterize more what's going on here, and so far, the monkey is winning.... at least measured from the tenure of this website.

Now I use 100% stocks (40I, 30C, 30S). Not even I would expect you to beat that over the long term, cause I'm all but confident that isnt going to happen ;-). Granted, i'll reevaluate that approach~ 5 years from now when we enter the so called, potential baby boom deflation/depression several are predicting.

[tsptalk]

azanon wrote: My 2 cents is you'd have to start consistently beating the trained monkey to justify it first. I mean that as gently as I can say it. (trained monkey = 20% to all).
I would certainly need to perform over the long term. Makes me hope we get another extended bear market so the buy and hold 100% stock folks will remember why it's important to keep an eye on things.

If you look at this site as just a percentage gain or loss, then you don't fullyget it. If I started to post the thank you emails I get everyday from people who not long ago knew virtually nothing about savings and investing, and are now taking charge of their retirements and TSPaccounts whether by putting in the max %, getting out of hiding in the G fund when appropriate, oreven just knowing they can move their money around, you'd see that none of them say "you only gained 10% last year?"

Not everyone might agree with my allocations orappreciate mydaily market comments, but this site is a place where everyone can share ideas, ask questions and learn. And I'm here everyday!

Come on Tom, Spank the Monkey!

You do very well with your allocation changes and provide excellent market commentary. You are priceless.

Do not worry big bear is on the way. One of the next two fed hikes will set it off, I have all confidence in Mr Bubbles wrecking the economy (again).

[azanon]

If you look at this site as just a percentage gain or loss, then you don't fullyget it. If I started to post the thank you emails I get everyday from people who not long ago knew virtually nothing about savings and investing, and are now taking charge of their retirements and TSPaccounts whether by putting in the max %, getting out of hiding in the G fund when appropriate, oreven just knowing they can move their money around, you'd see that none of them say "you only gained 10% last year?"


I pointed out somewhere in the past just that very thing. I specifically said the most valuable thing at this website is your long term outlook with adjustments for conservative, moderage, and aggresive. If you just did that every year, and someone chose one of those allocations, they'd be far better off than they used to be before.

Also, as you pointed out, most do dump their monies in G (or leave it at the default setting which is G), and you certainly support changing that.

My point is i'm not saying you're not doing a valuable service for everyone. I'm just saying the meat of the site (the daily timing article) I disagree with simply because I dont think anyone can accurately predict the market on a weekly basis (big deal, thousands in both camps right?). I believed that before you started this site, so that belief certainly isn't anything personal towards you. And so far..... you're providing no reason why I should think otherwise.

(note) I dont even mean that last sentence as an insult. I own at least 2-3 mutual funds that have underperformed the S&P500 for the past 5 years. But i still own them because I believe their time is yet to come.

[azanon]

Do not worry big bear is on the way. One of the next two fed hikes will set it off, I have all confidence in Mr Bubbles wrecking the economy (again).

I doubt Tom would agree with that. Personally, I think the market will be tremendous for the next 3 years on the heels of the market recoveryand with the boomers pumping funds into the market as they despirately try to get their retirement accounts in a position to be able to retire by 2010+. Lets see what happens.

azanon wrote: Personally, I think the market will be tremendous for the next 3 years on the heels of the market recoveryand with the boomers pumping funds into the market as they despirately try to get their retirement accounts in a position to be able to retire by 2010+.
Didyou listen to greenie say 2008 there will be more people in retirement then working, Pres says we got a "crisis" starting 2008. Hmm...that would mean there is more money coming OUT (hey I am retired need to live NOT PUMP MORE MONEY IN THE MARKET) then in. The market does not fare to well when the money is coming OUT. At least based on my "limited" research on this subject.

Just my .02.

Good luck. :P

Also, now that I am started..that is why the bond yield are not moving...money is pouring into bonds and away from stocks. Lots of people start to retire in the next three years.

Inflation, high oil, fed tightening, options being expenses, slowing earnings, higher commodities prices - yes I agree the market is just going to scream the next three years...however the screaming will be on the way down.

Just my .02.

[cowboy]

I just have to ask you Dubious? Didn't you state that Greenie doesn't know squat. Now your listening and quotinghim. My opinion is forget about greenie, what he said today, you'll forget tomorrow! Please don't take this the wrong way as I do listen to you. By the way give me the next down turn date like you did in December. Or maybe you have and I missed it.

Greenie is correct about the 2008 data.

It is just a matter of birth tables and retirement dates. That is the Pres largest talking point. Baby boomers start to retire 2008. However with M&A that is going to pick up much faster by "early retirements".

Deception works great when their is a little truth thrown in. :) Because you can say the numbers do not lie. Yes that is correct. So on the other hand you can not say the econmony looks great...because moving forward you have a massive pile of crap in the road. If the budget is 437B + 82B (iraq) + 72B (medicare) + 1.2T (private accounts) over revenue NOW, how much is it going to be over in 2007? :h

Like I have said, People are not having children anymore because IT IS TO expensive to have them. Probably your grandmother did not need to work and her family got along fine. Now both adults are working full time in the household to get by. That is because the middle class is getting squeeze. You just do not see it.

I believe the next downturn starts around the third week of March 2005. Mr Bubbles needed the long term rates to go up today. He did not get the job done, next stop inversion to the yield curve. Inflation is here and the fed is worried and so am I.

Of course, I am a idiot so please make your own decisions. :P Just my .02. If you ask my opionion then be ready for it :u. I will be happy to hear your comments and your side also.

[cowboy]

Dr_Dubious wrote: Greenie is correct about the 2008 data.

It is just a matter of birth tables and retirement dates. That is the Pres largest talking point. Baby boomers start to retire 2008. However with M&A that is going to pick up much faster by "early retirements".

Deception works great when their is a little truth thrown in. :) Because you can say the numbers do not lie. Yes that is correct. So on the other hand you can not say the econmony looks great...because moving forward you have a massive pile of crap in the road. If the budget is 437B + 82B (iraq) + 72B (medicare) + 1.2T (private accounts) over revenue NOW, how much is it going to be over in 2007? :h

Like I have said, People are not having children anymore because IT IS TO expensive to have them. Probably your grandmother did not need to work and her family got along fine. Now both adults are working full time in the household to get by. That is because the middle class is getting squeeze. You just do not see it.

I believe the next downturn starts around the third week of March 2005. Mr Bubbles needed the long term rates to go up today. He did not get the job done, next stop inversion to the yield curve. Inflation is here and the fed is worried and so am I.

Of course, I am a idiot so please make your own decisions. :P Just my .02. If you ask my opionion then be ready for it :u. I will be happy to hear your comments and your side also.



My opinion is this has been going on for the past 20 years, so it is old news. I will watch the 3rd week of March as you say and thanks for letting me know when you think the next down turn is. Do you have a day I should look out for. Just between two idiots, one of us has to know something. I like your comment on families having children because there is a lot of truth to it. You want to know where the biggest growth in population is at in the USA. It's the Indian reservations. The US government paysnative peopleto have kids.Hint: check into it, money to be made. It all comes down to everyone wants to stop inflation but you don't want to take a hit in the process.

cowboy wrote: I will watch the 3rd week of March as you say and thanks for letting me know when you think the next down turn is.
Just for clarification that is the 3rd full week of March which starts March 21...not to go out on a limb or anything :P.

However want to see the action moving forward.

[cowboy]

Gotchya Doc! I'll keep an eye out for that March date as your usually good on that and in between I'll see if I can't pick up some spare change.

cowboy wrote: Gotchya Doc! I'll keep an eye out for that March date as your usually good on that and in between I'll see if I can't pick up some spare change.
I will PM you updates on this matter.

Ride em!

[Gritz]

Hey Tom, realize this is a bit late from your original post, but I was doing a search on donating to the site and came across this post. For what it's worth from a newbie to your site, I'd gladly chip in to to help defray any costs and reimburse you for your time and efforts. The site works well and your insight is informative and well based. You have quite a following from what I read and many well versed financiers, which makes it an easy place for myself to come see many different perspectives and learn along the way.

.02 - Lurking for free, but pay for selected services..charts, research, forum participation, alerts, etc.

Feel like all I do is take something away from all that is offered here and would gladly give some back (little paypal on its way).Didn't see any further update onthis thread about your work situation, but then again, my wife feels I can't find anything and has a rule when I can't find something that I have to at least move two things before saying "can't find"..guess I should look at 2 more threads. Hope all isworking out for you;also helps me understand your reply tomy email aboutcalling from the art gallery, had to think for awhile about "fed art galleries". If there is any way of helping you out please feel free to contact me. As Rod aptly states, God Bless.

[tsptalk]

Gritz wrote: Feel like all I do is take something away from all that is offered here and would gladly give some back (little paypal on its way).Didn't see any further update onthis thread about your work situation, but then again, my wife feels I can't find anything and has a rule when I can't find something that I have to at least move two things before saying "can't find"..guess I should look at 2 more threads. Hope all isworking out for you;also helps me understand your reply tomy email aboutcalling from the art gallery, had to think for awhile about "fed art galleries". If there is any way of helping you out please feel free to contact me. As Rod aptly states, God Bless.

Thanks Gritz. I did receive your PayPal donation and it was quite generous. I really appreciate it.

As a follow up, I did end up getting my suspension reduced to one week and I used the time to go to Park City with some friends last month. I needed the break so it worked out OK. I just missed a week's pay and learned a lesson. All is well and I'll survive. I just wish I could spend more time in the a.m. discussing strategies with everyone. But now I have to wait until after work. Makes things a little tougher.

Thanks again,
Tom

[Shaggy]

Hey Tom I know I'm a little late on this voting thing but I don't know if you noticed how many people posted for the first or second time in response tou your Fee question. Also notice how many members are " only been a member for two or three weeks". Might want to wait just a little while, because it seems membership is growing fast. I know I would pay.