Dollar up or down right after new year?

[neirbod]

Ok, I know that many believe the dollar will continue its decline for some time, and that this means good things for the I fund. But, I wonder if the dollar is falling too far too fastright now, and may have overshot its true value:

http://www.x-rates.com/d/EUR/USD/graph30.html

Next week when many traders return from vacations, I thinking that the dollar may rebound somewhat before eventually turning down again. So, I am thinking I may get out of the I fund effective January 3 in anticipation of a short-term decline, and get backinlaterin the week. Anyone have other thoughts on this?

Dave

[smedlap]

Dave, you'reright on target. One can ride the I for a longer run ignoring speed bumps or try to miss them using the S. I'm with you as I think those on vacation will try to turn it around or at least talk it up!

[neirbod]

The dollar has been pretty stable over the past few days. Could be my concern of the dollar shooting too low, too fast may not be such a big deal. I usually get burned when I try to play a little wiggle. So, if the dollar stays close to its current value through today, I will probably stick with my current allocation of 20 C, 30 S and 50 I until at least early next week.

Happy new year, all!

Dave