Even more on the I fund

[Wheels]

I did some digging on the I fund to try to answer some of the questions that we've all brought up here over the last few weeks. Here's what I've come up with. Be forewarned, this will likely be a brutally long and potentially dry post.

Morgan Stanley started an index called the EAFE. More recently, Barclay's started a fund to track that indexcalled the MSCI EAFE Index Fund. Our I fund is invested in this fund. The index can be tracked from the Morgan Stanley website under EAFE. The fund can be watched by using the ticker symbol EFA. Differences in the two can be attributed to several things. This from the TSP website:

The securities lending program of the Barclays EAFE Index Fund produces income that adds to the returns of the I Fund.

And:

A small portion of the Barclays EAFE Index Fund is invested indirectly in futures contracts to provide liquidity.

Additionally there are normal management fees associated with the fund but not the index.

There is also a ticker symbol, EFV, that we have discussed. This is the ishares Trust Index. According to a Barclay's rep I spoke with, this index represents the "underlying trading value" or the total of all the net asset values of the various stocks in the EAFE index. Way over my head but suffice it to say that it is not a fair reflection of the EFA fund or our I fund.

Next to the issue of the dollar's effect on the fund. The TSP website has this to say:

However, the I Fund also carries the risk of foreign currency fluctuations. The stock prices of the companies in the EAFE index are expressed in the currency of each respective country and then converted to U.S. dollars to determine the value of the EAFE index. Thus, the value of the EAFE index will rise as the value of the U.S. dollar falls — and fall as the value of the U.S. dollar rises — relative to the currencies of countries with companies that are represented in the EAFE index.

A Barclay's rep (not the first guy) had this to say in an e-mail he sent me:

Because each Index Fund's assets are generally invested in non-U.S. securities, and because a substantial portion of the revenue and income of each Index Fund is received in a foreign currency, the dollar value of an Index Fund's net assets is reduced by declines in the value of the relevant foreign currency relative to the dollar and are positively affected by increases in the value of that currency relative to the dollar. Because each Index Fund's net asset value is determined on the basis of U.S. dollars, you may lose money if you invest in any Index Fund if the local currency of a foreign market depreciates against the U.S. dollar, even if the local currency value of an Index Fund's holdings goes up.

They are both saying the same thing and it's nothing new to us here on this board. Unfortunately neither explains to what extent the dollar's price effects the fund's price. Furthermore it's already taken into account when we look at the EFA ticker during the day so it's not like we need to try to calculate this effect ourselves.

Now onto timing. Lucky thought that maybe he could take advantage of a good day in Japan's markets but moving his money into the I fund the next day. The Barclay's rep (the phone guy) explained to me that when the various markets close in our early morning hours, those prices will be reflected in that day's EFA closing price. He also said that while those markets are closed but the EFA is still trading over here, the price is driven largely by news and futures prices. In other words speculation, like Tom has already pointed out to us. The other Barclay's rep (the e-mail guy) explains it like this:

The pricing of the internationaliShares funds use fair value pricing. Essentially, the fund does notjust usethe closing prices of its stocks, but rather it estimatesthe NAV based on models of what a stock's price would be if the international exchange were open. Fair value pricing is designed to prevent the late trading scandals that have surfaced in the fund industry.

More specifically, the iShares prices fluctuate throughout the trading hours based on the value of those underlying securities that make up each particular fund. For the Far East Funds, the opening prices reflect the closing prices of the securities that trade on those foreign Stock Exchanges. When those foreign Stock Exchanges areclosed, the pricing of the iShares Funds primarily reflects price discovery and currency fluctuations. Price discovery is the process by which an auction market sets values based upon all that is currently known about a security. The specialists/market makers will set the best outbid/ask based on news and announcements of those underlying securities that cameafter their market closed. The price of the ETF share is updated throughout the day, and is determined by competitive market forces.

I liked phone guys explanation better because it was easier to understand.What it means to us is if the dollar is getting hammered during the overnight hours and the U.K. and Japan are both off to the races, we know that the EFA and our I fund are likely going to do well that day, but it is already way too late for us to take advantage of it.
Lastly, I want to address the slight differences in daily gains/losses between the EFA and our I fund. The TSP website has this to say about it:

The F, C, S, and I Funds are intended to track the performance of their respective indexes; however, from month to month, the returns of the TSP funds may differ from the returns of these respective indexes. There are three major reasons for these differences:

The returns for the TSP funds are shown after accrued TSP administrative expenses, investment management fees, and trading costs have been deducted. The returns of the corresponding indexes do not reflect any such expenses.

Some TSP money is invested in G Fund securities while awaiting investment in one of the four related index funds, or to make cash available to pay loans and withdrawals from the TSP.

There may be differences between the returns of the related index funds in which the TSP funds are invested and the indexes themselves.
However I noticed that the differences, while not huge, were certainly more than the C or the S was experiencing. The Barclay's rep (e-mail guy) offered this:

The Barclays Global Investors funds that are in the Federal Governments' Thrift Savings Plan are not the same as the iSharesFunds. Even though there isafund that tracks the performance of the MSCI EAFE Index in the Thrift Savings Plan, it is not exactly the same fund as the iSharesMSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA). The performance between the two funds may differ because of differences in the holdings and expense ratios associated with the funds.
I hope I didn't put anyone to sleep. I also hope that presented this in a way so as to be helpful, or useful, or at least interesting to a few of you.

Dave

[tsptalk]

Great info Wheels. Thanks!

Tom

[puertorico]

[I just learning here]

Wheels,Hi !

What means ?

[...and trading costs have been deducted].

It's means ,when we are doing tranfer ,we

are paying for that service ? or what "trading

cost have been deducted: means ?

...may be a stupid question but pardon me,

I'm just a first starter in the game ?

[zbwmy]

Great research Wheels. I understood most of what you presented.It is posts like this that are going to make this site a homepage for our most savy of TSPers.

You obviously spent some time on this post and we all appreciate it greatly.

Now everyone tell us if this gives us an edge?

[Wheels]

PR - I'm not sure exactly what it means. It's not a fee per se. Theperson who makes a thousand trades is paying no more than the person who makes none. I would have thought that "TSP administrative expenses, management fees, and trading costs" would have all been roughly the same thing.

ZBWMY - Thanks. I suppose you could argue that being informed gives you an edge, but in practice my answer is no, I don't think so. Trading the I is just as speculative as all the others.

Dave

[puertorico]

May be the expence trading of the company !

By the way tsp is great plan which low expence.

I like this forrum ,and u guys doing a good help

with informations and tips.

Thanks

[eukrate]

wheels -
very nice piece of investigative reporting. Here's a suggestion on determining the effect of the dollar's variation on the eafe fund price - compare the daily closing prices of the fund expressed in local currency to the close in dollars. This is a direct measure of the exchange rate effect. MSCI provides both values daily. Perhaps your email buddy could answer this. If I can grab a history of daily closes in local and dollar values I'll do the analysis and post the results. Personnally, I'm betting it's a small effect, less than 10% of the final price.

[Wheels]

I'd like to see the those results myself. However, the whole time I was working on this little project, I should have been doing my taxes. I happily pass the baton to you.

Dave

[tsptalk]

I think the dollar has a pretty significant impact on the I fund. This year the EAFE is up 3.7% in local currency but only 2.71% in U.S. dollars. That 1% difference isactuallya 27% decrease in return.

[Cortez]

Does anyone have information on the strength of the dollar in a given calender year? If I recall correctly the dollar was in a weak period in the mid 80's where the I fund (EAFE to be accurate) was returning strong double digits and during the 90's Rubin "strong dollar" policy, the I fund (EAFE) was stagnant to negative in returns. I anticipate that with the Bush administration's quiet abandonment of the strong dollar for trade balance concerns, that the dollar should decline against major currencies (even more if Japan walks away from monetary intervention), and correlativelythe I Fund should be the strongest performing fund in 2004.

Shawn.

[tsptalk]

Welcome cortez -
I did a quick search but couldn't find currency quotes going back to the eighties.I'll keep looking. Here is something I posted in my comments back in February along the same line...

The EAFE index (I fund) had some huge years back in the mid 1980's. Check out these returns:

1983 +23.69%
1984 + 7.41%
1985 +56.14%
1986 +69.46%
1987 +24.64%
1988 +28.26%

That is mind boggling. We thought the 1990's were good here. The years leading up to those returns were quite weak. Before last year's 38% gain, the I fund had three years of negative returns, -14%, -22% and -16%. This is a volatile index but could we see consecutive year returns like that anytime soon? I won't bet the farm on it but I wouldn't leave it out of your allocation if you are in the stock funds.

[eukrate]

My suggestion on determining the effect of the dollar's variation on the I fund price - to compare the daily closing prices of the fund expressed in local currency to the close in dollars at the MSCI data site - is wrong. Because of the number of currencies involved, there is no simple relationship (near constant ratio) between the two. In fact, the euro/dollar exchange rate is sometimes completely uncorrelated to the EAFE. On the link below, one can see that - in the last half of 2002, while the euro increased 20% against the dollar, the EAFE dropped. In 2003 the correlation does re-appear but it's not 100%...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=efa

[tsptalk]

I'm sure youknow more on this subject than I eukrate, but I wouldn't equate arising euro exactly to anup EAFE butrather an increasedreturn to the EAFE.I don't even know which of these Europeanmarkets trade in euros but wouldn'tthe British pound and Japaneseyen beat least as significant? I'd be curious tosee those charts vs EFA. I looked onYahoo but I couldn't find a reliable symbol for the pound.

[eukrate]

Here's EAFE against the British Pound, and against the Japanese Yen. I don't think the argument changes any. I picked the Euro as a general proxy, but of course one needs to look at all the currencies involved.
pound
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=GBPUSD%3DX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=efa
yen
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=JPYUSD%3DX&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=efa

[thinks]

Great thread!

Thanks for the link, Tom! Looks like I need to set aside some more time and look over past threads.

[Rolo]

Great research, Wheels, and I did find it interesting.

heh, I am reminded of the movie Dude, Where's My Car? when the drive-thru lady kept saying "And theeeen?" to everything the guy said.

Meaning: given the lengthy discussion, the original question was never answered! (How much does the dollar's value affect the I Fund's shareprice?)

Perhaps a more specific question is in order:


Assume all other currencies do not change. Let's say the I Fund's holdingsrise 10% in one quarter. In the same quarter, the dollar rises 10% against the other unchanged currencies. What would my share price be at the end of the quarter relative to the beginning?

I cannot help but think that your share price would be right where you started. The only exception to that would be my next question:


Does the I Fund hedge againt currency risk? If so, to what extent?



I backed off of the I Fund and moved into the S Fundfor this reason, prematurely it seems. I went from a foreign frying pan into adomestic one, since they've fallen about the same amount since the transfer sometime in April (I forgot to log the date). But...I have more shares! :D

[Brak]

From the TSP website:

Why doesn't the change in the I Fund share price always correspond to the EAFE Index which it tracks?

Participants have asked why, on some days, the change in the I Fund share price reported by the TSP does not match the change reported for the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) index, which the I Fund tracks. This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI) reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, in which the TSP invests, after the close of the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation," occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m., eastern time, when BGI's share prices are determined. Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP's on those days.

[tsptalk]

That's what my old "I fund strategy" used to do. When the U.S. markets were up big, the I fundtended to do better the following day because the Asian and European markets would play catch up.I would make a quick 100% switch to the I fund on that big up day to catch that rally. Now they seem to do more adjusting of those international indices and predict the action.

Wow, hope no one is in the I fund today. Yuck!!!!!!!!!!:t

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote: Wow, hope no one is in the I fund today. Yuck!!!!!!!!!!:t


GOT THAT RIGHT!!!:P

I was 20% until I took refuge in G.:^

Good for you Rod. I love when I love when I "hit the nail on the head" as far as getting out and going to G fund. I think I deserve a beer! Hmmm, what time is it? Oh that's right, it's five o'clock somewhere! :l

For anyone interested, I got a "sell" signal for the I fund on Sept. 2nd. It's not going anywhere too soon................:t

[Timer]

mlk_man wrote: For anyone interested, I got a "sell" signal for the I fund on Sept. 2nd. It's not going anywhere too soon................:tThanks M_M. My luck with the I fund in 04 has not been good. I was thinking about getting in. I'm in C and S now. Time to get out soon?

My "system" said get out now. You've probably noticed the big spike up the indices just had. I think this is due to short selling. Probably go back down by the end of the day. I may for go my "system" next week and hop back in based on historical data. We'll see. I doubt it's gonna go up too much more before we get the dreaded pull back. Then again, some peeps have been calling for a "bull" market all year, so maybe now is the time?

My system's been working so I'll probably just stick with it. Hard to sit around and wait sometimes though.

Hey, why you asking me? Ask MT!!!!! :P

Timer wrote: mlk_man wrote: For anyone interested, I got a "sell" signal for the I fund on Sept. 2nd. It's not going anywhere too soon................:tThanks M_M. My luck with the I fund in 04 has not been good. I was thinking about getting in. I'm in C and S now. Time to get out soon?
I really would stay away from the I fund though. Appears the dollar may be gaining strength and another rate hike would certainly prove this.

M_M

[Timer]

mlk_man wrote: Hey, why you asking me? Ask MT!!!!! :P

OK, you caught me, I was just being polite, trying to make you feel better given the crappy year you are having. I admit it, I really only care about what MT thinks.

Seriously, my hat's off to you M_M. You're doing something right.

I care about what everyone thinks, pr, Az, Rolo, Rod, you, even Tom :oo,I take it all in. However, with MT, how do I say this - I think that I am speaking for a lot of us, I haveconcerns about the tone. At first it was stimulating, he's intelligent and a good researcherbut now the tone is often uncouth :h. I, like Rolo am bi-polar so I take exception to the 'label' being used to insult or belittle people but I too get the impression that there is some kind of instability. In the manic mode, bp's are often loquacious and he seems to never have an unspoken thought - he even answers questions pointed at other posters. MT, no offense guy but you should see a good psychiatrist, you show a lot of markers for bp (takes one to know one). Bp is more common than people think. I take mood stabilizers and am fine.

[Timer]

Timer wrote: I take mood stabilizers and am fine.
No.... really, I'm fine:h:oo:h.

[tsptalk]

The I fund had a nice day Friday, reaching a two month high. As you might think, the dollar tanked which helped. The dollar is now at a support level where it will be make or break. I will base my short term I fund decisions onwhether this support area holds or not. I'll post the chart in Monday's comments.

Tom

[Mike]

I'm reluctant to jump back into the I fund with an interest rate hike looming. If the dollar continues to struggle post-hike, I'll probably move back in... preferably after the fund dips a bit.

I believe as long as the trade deficient are at these levels ($50b each month) the I fund will do very well. Keep in mind we get over 70% of our oil from foreign markets. It costs them very little to yank out of the ground yet sells for over $40 a barrel. Actually what products are made in U.S. that are cheaper then U.S. made goods? Walmart should be named - MADE IN CHINA. The next rate hike may cause a blip on the NAV of the I fund. I use to do what Tom did and bought into the I fund when the U.S. market had a good day that day. That does not work as well now. Which is a bummer.

Present allocation 50% S and 50% I. Monday should be a good day for both :!.

MT

[Mike]

The US has been running massive trade deficits for years now, so I don't think it has much of an impact on the I fund.

I'd argue that US fiscal policy (or lack thereof) will hurt the I Fund long-term due to the upward pressure that all this deficit spending/debt expansion will place on the interest rates.

Mike,

That is the U.S. sending $50B PER MONTH to I Fund countries. If you have been following the I fund it has outperformed the U.S. Markets for the last three plus years. We have hitting record highs - ding ding - during this period.

When the Japan and European currencies are stronger thing ours the impact of a .25 rate hike is pretty nil.

If you avoid the I fund then you are avoiding the best and least expense ratio fund you will find.

Good luck!

MT

Mike wrote:
The US has been running massive trade deficits for years now, so I don't think it has much of an impact on the I fund.

I'd argue that US fiscal policy (or lack thereof) will hurt the I Fund long-term due to the upward pressure that all this deficit spending/debt expansion will place on the interest rates.

[Mike]

I've avoided it lately. I was holding 30-35% in there through June 30th before I transferred out.

If the coming rate hike doesn't prop up the dollar much, I'll move back in at the next buying opportunity.

Mike wrote:
I've avoided it lately. I was holding 30-35% in there through June 30th before I transferred out.

If the coming rate hike doesn't prop up the dollar much, I'll move back in at the next buying opportunity.

Last 12 months:

I 22.85

S 12.22

c 11.46

Jun #1,Jul #2, Aug #1, that is pretty consistant.

Good luck! MT

[Mike]

If I was really smart, I would've transferred all my C/S/I into G on the 30th (rather than only bailing out of the I fund). Then I could've gotten back in when we hit the August lows. Man, that would've generated nice returns. Blech. :P

MarketTimer wrote:
. If you have been following the I fund it has outperformed the U.S. Markets for the last three plus years. We have hitting record highs - ding ding - during this period.


Wow, MT twisting the facts again to meet his own needs? Say it ain't so Joe!!!!

Since inception in 2001: S fund up 25.2, I fund up 9.54. Which would you rather be in? True the I fund is up the past twelve months, but you said 3 plus years. Just the facts MT, just the facts..........

Notice how MT doesn't respond when he gets "busted"? :u

[Mike]

I guess I'll have to wait for an I fund opening that happens after monday due to the account access blockage in place. Thank you, U.S. government. :P

[smedlap]

Just for the fun of it, and from the TSP Historical rate share prices: for 1 year as of 26 Nov the I fund has gained 24%:^, the S Fund 16%:), and the C fund 14%;). Anyone have different figures??? Why split your play? Why play out of the box? Why day trade? Better to play Tom's weekly charts for bumps and curves.

What's hot this next week? - Tuesday - GDP, Wed - ISM MFG Index, Friday - Employment. All should be up:^

Following week - prelude to FOMC and a for sure rate hike:? Mixed feelings as I am 100% I Fund. Where you been Puertorico? In the sunshine! Your play?

[puertorico]

I'M HERE SMEDLAP ALL DAYS

I just read to learn an taking ideas from all of you.
Rightnow I-fund 100% .looking forward for a transfer
may be Monday or wendnesday.I dont now if I'm doing
bad but there something in thursdays market that I
do not like. Most of the time when is pay-week. i CAN see...

When wednesday, pay week, my money is deposit in tsp.
nex day the market take part of that money that has been
deposit on wednesday.So,most of the time when thursdays
coming, after that deposit ,take some $$$$$$$$$$$$$:?.
that happen to me in a row but that make me miss a big rally too.

THATwhy I miss the big rally ,2 WEEK ago in that holiday
on thursday and friday.

So that idea of thursdays' bad day most of the time of pay-week.
I cant no take out of my mind...:?Let's see thisthursday.
may I has to start a new and forget:D

About I-FUND
I like it becouse dollarhas noany idea to go up ,just down.
I think we most take advance of that dollar down trend putting
something in I fund.Even in a verry bad day,I-FUND not
look that bad and u finish wich some gain insted of loss.:^

A little fear becouse i-fund almos hittin 15.00 but the season and
the trend is positive.

"warning"

not body take my tips, I'm just a bigginer ok.good luck everybody...:D

I'm sticking with the I fund. Got nervous for a little while and almost swithced to S.

[smedlap]

Wake up amblingbush and puertorico! Get out your rakes. It looks like another great day for the I fund money wheelbarrow. I fund may lag S and C today because the dollar has improved, but that's temporary. But we'll see! Good luck!

[smedlap]

Ablingbutch, sorry about the misspell. Too early. Butgood morning. Please check my math. December of last year, the I fund never really looked back gaining 75 points during December against 10 for the S fund and 46 for the C fund. I may swing into the S fund from my I fund commitment if the S and C drop during the FOMC meeting. Your thoughts?

[smedlap]

Puertorico. Hope your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday, 7 days from now! Recommend you hold firm at 100% I Fund.

[Rod]

smedlap wrote: Puertorico. Hope your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday, 7 days from now! Recommend you hold firm at 100% I Fund.
I bet you're gonna make him nervous now!!!:D

[puertorico]

smedlap wrotte Hope

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Today dow is looking ugly that why I have to stay in I-Fund now.
tomorrow will pay back.I will stay a least to wed.:D

[Rod]

puertorico wrote: smedlap wrotte Hope

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Today dow is looking ugly that why I have to stay in I-Fund now.
tomorrow will pay back.I will stay a least to wed.:D

The I Fund is dropping drasticallyas of 1220 PM EST:

http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/

I wonder what happened???

[Rod]

Rod wrote: puertorico wrote: smedlap wrotte Hope

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Today dow is looking ugly that why I have to stay in I-Fund now.
tomorrow will pay back.I will stay a least to wed.:D

The I Fund is dropping drasticallyas of 1220 PM EST:

http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/

I wonder what happened???



No worries, PR. You'll have some decent gains.:^

[smedlap]

Gang, I predict a good ride all this week as the market data should reflect such tomorrow, wed and Fri. Employment numbers on Friday should come in again solid and be the short term icing on the cake. You can feel the market wanting to drop with oil, dollar and Walmart concerns for an average XMAS sales. That will be sometime next week as the market gets ready for the FOMC rate increase. Then it will rise again. As to the I Fund drop today, it just followed a beaten DOW down. Considering that the S&P and Dow were down .8% at noon and the I fund still at .25% positive - that's a 1% cumulative gain!

The I fundessentially ignoredthe influence of the FMOC meeting last year and or the realized declines of the C and S funds associated with such. My play will be if the C and S do drop, I will transfer from 100% I to 100% S for a couple of days and be back to I quickly. Now, I will also be amazed if it works!:^ But I'm trying to get 8% monthly return vice 4%.

Don;'t follow my advice, make your own decisions!:i Good luck

[Show-me]

smedlap wrote: Gang, I predict a good ride all this week as the market data should reflect such tomorrow, wed and Fri. Employment numbers on Friday should come in again solid and be the short term icing on the cake. You can feel the market wanting to drop with oil, dollar and Walmart concerns for an average XMAS sales. That will be sometime next week as the market gets ready for the FOMC rate increase. Then it will rise again. As to the I Fund drop today, it just followed a beaten DOW down. Considering that the S&P and Dow were down .8% at noon and the I fund still at .25% positive - that's a 1% cumulative gain!

The I fundessentially ignoredthe influence of the FMOC meeting last year and or the realized declines of the C and S funds associated with such.
Great comments. I agree.

[puertorico]

Hey guys today share price

I-fund pay 6 cents from14.85 to 14.91 :^

S-fund pay 2 cents :^

c-fund loss 4 cent

f-fund loss 3 cent

NOt to chevvy for I-fund being in red territory :^

[coolhand]

Sounds like a good plan Smedlap. I like your thinking :^.

[puertorico]

smedlap wrote: Puertorico. Hope your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday, 7 days from now! Recommend you hold firm at 100% I Fund.

:^:D

[smedlap]

Just remember gang - when we make money, everyone is happy. To lose it, we get excited and dissapointed. Need to watch this puppy carefully. As pointed out in another site I fund has only been really productive since August. We can inch out some more profits here. But if I am correct, without market churning, the summer benchmark fair value of my measuring stick - the S&P is 1260. For 31 December, it is 1225. What we are talking about here is that without churning around key events (holding a steady C fund hand), if invested in C fund, we would make 4% by Dec 31 and 3% respectively. I fund should do better. GDP is reported tomorrow at 08:30. This will set an initial weekly foundation for the market, good or bad. My point is that those of us that played the I fund from the start, or S and C basket have done well for November. December and January as months should be good also. May even be able to hit that 1250 level. But there will be 1 or 2 pullbacks (consolidations or market churning by the Bulls and the Bears). Todays pullback is a little early for my understanding, premature from my analysis. But the market is very fragile to oil, poor earnings reports and other. If we get our GDP #, employment numbers on Friday and ISM Mfg on Wed, I am sticking to I Fund with an intent to quickly drop into S on any pullback. Then back to I asthe international marketis forcasted to be the strongest (I fundis invested in excellentcompanies). But I fund can go down also as it was relatively stagnant most of the year with C and S. Just try and be as smart on the market as one can as there will be months during wich I recommend hibernation in G fund!

[Timer]

smedlap wrote: ...during wich I recommend hibernation in G fund!smed, I hear you. I just hate to sit in the G fund, even when it makes sense, impatient I guess.
TSP put me in 100% S today. I swear I didn't put that order in. I want to be at least 75%I right now. Alzheimers? Sabotage? More reason to start keeping records, that way I know if it's me or Memorex?

[smedlap]

Well, at least you ended up firmly in the S fund, a positive return. Not a bad land for something you did not do. I see hybernation more like during February and July, August and September. Stocks remain my play until my assessmkent then. I think that is if all things remain equal. Mid January, lots of bonuses being invested in 401k, gift cards being used to extend the Xmas season, gas oil should start to drop and reduce price pressure and we start earnings season. Big players step to the sidelines to churn the market. Nice to see you active!

[tsptalk]

This article discusses my concerns on playing the international funds with the dollar this low. (How low can it really go?)...

Curb your enthusiasm
Commentary: International equity funds warrant caution

By Marvin Appel, Systems & Forecasts
Last Update: 2:33 PM ET Nov. 29, 2004

NEW YORK (S&F) (http://www.systemsandforecasts.com/) -- To read the news, placing investments abroad would seem to be a no-brainer -- but investors should tread carefully.

Every day brings new headlines about our country's worsening trade deficit and budget deficits, on our dependence on foreign lenders to finance these and the resultant weakness of the U.S. Dollar, which is making new lows every day.

Meanwhile, the average international equity mutual fund is up 12.8 percent in 2004 through Wednesday, according to the Lipper International Index -- handily outpacing the 7.8 percent return of Vanguard's S&P 500 (VFINX (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=VFINX&siteid=yhoo&dist =yhoostoryquote): news (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=VFINX&dist=yhoostorynews ), chart (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=VFINX&dist=yhoostory chart), profile (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=VFINX&dist=yhoostoryp rofile)) index fund.

Over the long term, international stocks match our own

From 1971 to 1989, international stocks (as benchmarked by the Morgan-Stanley EAFE Index) significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in U.S. dollar terms. However, from 1989 to 2002 the S&P 500 was much stronger. Since 2002 international stocks have regained the advantage. Over the entire period, the returns of both have been very close, with the S&P 500 slightly more profitable and slightly less volatile.

Diversification into foreign stocks disappoints

Holding a hypothetical portfolio of half EAFE and half S&P 500, rebalanced annually, since 1971 returned 0.1 percent per year less than the S&P 500 alone (in U.S. dollars, total returns). Drawdown in the diversified portfolio was slightly worse than for the S&P 500 alone, although by the academic risk measure (standard deviation of monthly returns) the diversified portfolio was slightly less volatile.

Given the absence of economical index funds tracking the EAFE during most of this period, the actual costs to an investor of diversifying internationally would probably have outweighed the modest benefits. Rather, the greatest potential benefit from investing in foreign stocks appears to depend on having a successful asset allocation strategy that identifies periods when foreign stocks are likely to outperform our own.

Weak U.S. Dollar helps international funds in 2003 and 2004

Most mutual funds that invest abroad do not attempt to hedge their exposure to foreign currency risk. As a result, even if a foreign stock market stays flat in terms of its local currency, investors from the U.S. can profit if the dollar falls.

From January, 2002 through the present, the U.S. dollar has lost 30 percent of its value, representing a rate of decline of more than 12 percent a year. During this period the average international equity mutual fund has gained almost 29 percent, while the S&P 500 index (total return) is up 10.3 percent.

The implication is that international equity mutual funds have benefited mightily from the weakness in the dollar -- far more than from strength in the world's major stock markets. A bet on continued strength in the foreign sector implicitly assumes that the dollar will not rebound significantly from current levels.

Dollar Index is near all-time lows

The chart below shows that the U.S. dollar is now near its lowest levels ever since currencies began to float against each other. The dollar bottomed out at similar levels in 1978, 1980, 1987, 1991, 1992 and 1995. The all time U.S. dollar low in 1992 was just 5 percent below current levels.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/image.asp?track=201&guid={DB40A1F9-8E58-4F71-9203-5C5058CABD5A}

One factor that does bode poorly for the dollar is record trade deficits relative to total domestic production (GDP). On the other hand, inflation and federal budget deficits were worse in the past than is now the case. As a result, it is far from certain that the dollar ought to fall much further.

Bottom line: The history of the U.S. dollar index suggests that the U.S. dollar has more room to recover than to fall further, making it risky to hold international equity funds.

Of course past results do not predict any future level of safety or profitability.

Recommendation: Investors have not been rewarded over the long term by holding international equity funds in a fixed portfolio allocation. With the U.S. dollar near record lows, there is a good chance that this will continue to be the case. Long term investors should stick to U.S. stocks.

However, active asset allocators can bet on continued leadership by international stocks through the iShares MSCI EAFE Index fund (EFA (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=EFA&siteid=yhoo&dist=y hoostoryquote): news (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=EFA&dist=yhoostorynews), chart (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=EFA&dist=yhoostorych art), profile (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=EFA&dist=yhoostorypro file)), with has done a good job tracking the EAFE Index since inception in 2001. I recommend using a 10 percent buy stop in the U.S. dollar index as a signal to sell EAFE and return to U.S. stocks.

[Rod]

Check this out:
Troops in Europe to See 31% COLA Hike in Next PaycheckU.S. troops living in Europe will see a 31 percent increase in their cost-of-living allowance in their next paycheck, as the Defense Department tries to provide relief from the dollar’s slide against the euro and British pound. For the November pay period, active-duty personnel will see "a substantial increase" in COLA, which was set Nov. 1. For example, a Germany-based sergeant, or enlisted pay grade E-5, with 10 years in and two dependents, will see his or her COLA increase to $785 from $600. That 31 percent increase will be reflected across all ranks. U.S. Army Europe finance officers are launching a media campaign to make sure soldiers understand how cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAS, help compensate troops for living in an ever more expensive Europe. The COLA increase is rare good financial news for Americans trying to get by in Europe on dollars, and USAREUR is using military print medium and American Forces Network to explain how COLA is calculated and what soldiers can expect in the future.
God Bless:^

[smedlap]

About another 5%. Certainly the Euro to 1:35 to the dollar and the yen to 1 to 1 and maybe 85 to the dollar. There is already dammaging reaction within foreign manufacturing areas as most are dependent on US buying. My position is not to live entirely in one position - just the best position at the time. I reassessthat position everymorning. Right now the best play for me has been I Fund or S fund which gives me a little extra over C fund. I just don't see the I dropping suddenly unless foreign countries attempt to prop up the dollar.

For example, I hope when one votes, he or she doesn't go distinct party lines, they select the best to lead.

[smedlap]

This is great. Take all that money and invest it as if you never received it. That's "all" the COLA. Wish we got an increase because it is more expensive now to eat in Canada! We'll just a little more! Moose meat has rissen in price or we'll have to go to a lower grade cut!



And Puertorico - how is the COLA where you are?

[puertorico]

[ 1.3% increase of the basic annual salary ]

actual 14% tsp.
Today I will contribute 15% to TSP BEGUINING JANUARY

Today 100%-I-fund expeting to hit 15.00 :^if that happen I'm done "I-FUND"
will be4 days in a row of gain 100-IFUND I can no ask for more.

tODAY for Tomorrow I'LL do the same Tom said plit and diversifie.


allocation between g.c.s.i.25% each

I like to have a least 25% in G just in case of a down move
then I can buy lower.A little caution not bad .The law say
grap the profit...:^

Will be BACk 100% stock inthe last 2 week of december

Thats my scheduled :D

[smedlap]

Good plan. Market is sagging today and especially the I fund. Will need to see how this plays out as the dollar has continued to drop in value which means the I fund loss will be somewhat deminished. Overseas markets are starting to crack. Thought we could at least get to December 31 before going S account. Will have to watch the softness with Tom as I am feeling it also. Still very happy with past results and can endure some small pain if I need too.

[Rod]

I'm sorry to see those that were in the I Fund yesterday, and still in today, to lose those gains from yesterdayand then some.:(

I just got in today at 40%, so I lost some with you too. Tomorrow Iwill be 30% I.

Unless the dollar gains backa lotof its strength, I'll probably remain at least 25% I.

Better luck for us tomorrow, fellas!:D

God Bless:^

[puertorico]

Rod :DYesterdays when from 14.85 to 14.91:^

Smedlap
I like to stay in I fund but after some gain is better for me to get
defensive .but good luck to u .may you benefic from dollar down

All people a talk about the market lately,WHen I says ALL my money
is in one stock fun they open their eyes and do not agree which me.

THey sayd to risky betterget diversifie.
:D

[Timer]

smedlap wrote: Well, at least you ended up firmly in the S fund, a positive return.smed, I don't know how I got there but I'm glad I'm not in I fund today. Not that S is great today :?. Hmmm..... that G fund is looking better and better. :shock:

puertorico wrote: Rod :DYesterdays when from 14.85 to 14.91:^

Smedlap
I like to stay in I fund but after some gain is better for me to get
defensive .but good luck to u .may you benefic from dollar down

All people a talk about the market lately,WHen I says ALL my money
is in one stock fun they open their eyes and do not agree which me.

THey sayd to risky betterget diversifie.
:D
Prove em wrong PR, I am...........:^

[Rod]

puertorico wrote: Rod :DYesterdays when from 14.85 to 14.91:^




Yes. But it will probably be down to around 14.82 attomorrow's open.

That's what I was referring to.:)

[puertorico]

:s:D

[coolhand]

tsptalk wrote: This article discusses my concerns on playing the international funds with the dollar this low. (How low can it really go?)...




Good question Tom.

Our domestic position continues to be one of letting the market dictate the dollars value. Asia is generally still pegged to our dollar keeping their products competitive in our market. Up until recently forex currency was streaming into our treasuries and holding down long-term interest rates, which continues to spur moredomestic spending (U.S. consumers just can't pass up low interest rates). Having said that it is also clear that forex inflowsare much diminished of late (which is what had kept the dollar from falling even more).

If there is a sell-off of dollars in the forex market the dollar will get weaker and interest rates will rise. I would think the "I" fund will benefit as a sell-off would probably be rather dramatic. Institutional investors in bonds are not going to want to be standing pat if long term bonds shed several points. Hence we would probably also see a lot of domestic pressure on bonds as well. Will this happen? Bond traders are spooked by the possibility as there is a significant forex component in treasuries and bonds.

A sell-off in my opinion is not likely to happen as it would adversely affect the Asian export paradigm. Greenspan expects the global marketplace to gradually correct theexchange imbalances through measured steps over time.

The articledoes not advocate "long-term" investments in foreign equities and to some extent I can understand that. However, we are not talking about 3rd world countrieshere and the companies held by the "I" fund are solid.I think the "I" fund is a great place to invest as long as one understands the risks and watches what is going on in the global economy in terms of currencies and individual (asian, european, and austrailian) markets.

My feeling isthat I think we are getting close to the bottom in terms of a weakdollar. I for one do not expect to hold thefund for too much longer (I play it day-to-day).I think the dollar will fall a little more without direct foreign intervention, but it's getting more difficult to ascertain what may happen. We still have the deficits and trade imbalance which leads me to believe that the dollar is not going to go up too quick if it does start to recover(a dead cat may bounce, but not very high) :D.

[puertorico]

Rod wrote: puertorico wrote: Rod :DYesterdays when from 14.85 to 14.91:^




Yes. But it will probably be down to around 14.82 attomorrow's open.

That's what I was referring to.:)



Wao Rod u make it the call I-FUND wHEn down to 14.83 ...[u said 14.82]
I lost 7 pennys in there now:sfrom 14.91 to 14.83...:s

I- lose 7
s -lose 2
c - lose 5
f - lose 1

:Dfasten ur seatbelt:D

puertorico wrote: Rod wrote: puertorico wrote: Rod :DYesterdays when from 14.85 to 14.91:^




Yes. But it will probably be down to around 14.82 attomorrow's open.

That's what I was referring to.:)



Wao Rod u make it the call I-FUND wHEn down to 14.83 ...[u said 14.82]
I lost 7 pennys in there now:sfrom 14.91 to 14.83...:s

I- lose 7
s -lose 2
c - lose 5
f - lose 1

:Dfasten ur seatbelt:D
Tough call an hour and a half before closing, LOL.

[puertorico]

mlk-man

I'mTaking in consideration the dollar vs eurofactor.You dont know if the I fund
finish given some pennys even when I fund is in red.:)sometimes do ?:D

[smedlap]

Your most correct puertorico. The dollarvarience has to be factored in. We'll kow tomorrow what the loss is. Patience. However, there have been valued postings regarding the I fund. Tom provided a good post. Agree with the pullback. Of note, his best mark was 1.5% on average for the C fund. I am 5.88% right now for Nov not including today's post. I'm happy. I'm still I and watching S. Let me be frank - the US market is clearly the best. It is just the accounts Delta that is causing the dollar to decline. Let's see how things turn out tomorrow. Think i will still be into G Monday morning waiting for that pullback unless it is on us right now!

[smedlap]

By the way Coolhand - very find post and I agree with every part of your analysis! I remain 100% I, patient and watchful!

[Rod]

That's not too much of a loss for you, PR.:^

Oh I almost forgot, we'll gain most of it back today.:!

[smedlap]

Good morning all.

On 30 November, the EFA recorded a 0.67% loss. This mornings account posting to my TSP I fund after EFA was adjusted to dollar decline reflects a - 0.54% loss. I'll take it and my close out for November of 6.02%

Thanks all for your post contributions. It was a good month and a fun month. I remain 100% I Fund, but watchful. Just a little more!

Hang on! This could be a really great one... more than make up for yesterday... up over 1% at appx 10am :^. Go for the green!

[smedlap]

Chaplain, are you praying for our success?

1. Tuesday GDP in positive!

2. Wednesday US ISM Mfg strong (note - a very poor mfg situation in Europe)!

3. Oil down based on heating oil invetory gains (although we have Christmas tree lighting tonight and it's raining hard with snow to finally come!)

4. Doller continues to slide meaning a further market close positive kicker to the EAFE when the I fund is posted!.

5. Friday - Who dare bets against a good employment report??????

Row, row, row your boat - gently down the I....:D:D:D:D:D

[puertorico]

Smelap I'm happy that u patience in I-fund make it :^
Today u gonna be in great shape $$$$$$$:D

[smedlap]

Thanks puertorico. Nice to hear from you. I think you retreated?? Keep an eye on Coolhand as he plays a Surehand!! I am comfortable with my nearterm startegy and do not feel a change needed. Family is heading back to Phoenix so I'll have some privacy to attempt to study and time the consolidation sometime next week. Will be watching Mike's posts but I think I am more matched with the way Surehand plays. Oh sorry - that's Coolhand!

[smedlap]

Thanks puertorico. Nice to hear from you. I think you retreated?? Keep an eye on Coolhand as he plays a Surehand!! I am comfortable with my nearterm startegy and do not feel a change needed. Family is heading back to Phoenix so I'll have some privacy to attempt to study and time the consolidation sometime next week. Will be watching Mike's posts but I think I am more matched with the way Surehand plays. Oh sorry - that's Coolhand!

How about this!

"Jabez called on the God of Israel, saying,'Oh that Thou would bless me indeed,and enlarge my coast [territory], and that Thine hand might be with me,and that Thou would keep me from evil, that it may not grieve me!'And God granted him that which he requested." 1 Chron 4:10 :)

Peace <><

Chaplain wrote: How about this!
"Jabez called on the God of Israel, saying,'Oh that Thou would bless me indeed,and enlarge my coast [territory], and that Thine hand might be with me,and that Thou would keep me from evil, that it may not grieve me!'And God granted him that which he requested." 1 Chron 4:10 :)
Peace <><
From your post to God's ears.. http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/17/17_1_14.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
please excuse my avatar but I thought the boys needed cheering up. I'm really anhttp://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/17/17_1_24.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)

[Rod]

Well PR, you got your wish for the I Fundreaching $15.00 and then some!:^

Boy, today was an excellent one across the board!:!

[smedlap]

Are we closed yet??? I don't thiiiiiiiiiiiiik so.:^

[Rod]

smedlap wrote: Are we closed yet??? I don't thiiiiiiiiiiiiik so.:^
Of course not!:cool: We're going even HIGHER!!!!!!!!:^

[puertorico]

yeah but one day late,Yesterdays I WAS 100-i:?
is ok I will get somepieces of the cake 25-c 25-s 25-i :^.

[puertorico]

Smedlap 30 min. more to closed :DYou are desperate :D
I know I know :^

Hey at 6:00 pm or 7:00 pm go to tsp prices share and you
will know how high I-FUND FINISH THE RACE...:D

[Rod]

puertorico wrote: yeah but one day late,Yesterdays I WAS 100-i:?
is ok I will get somepieces of the cake 25-c 25-s 25-i :^.

Where's your other 25 at???

Yeah, you will learn patience just like me.:D

Next Tuesday will be the time to be OUT, historically speaking.

Next 2 weeks will be shaky ground.

[Rod]

Nevermind PR. I see your other 25 is in G.

[puertorico]

THE other 25% G-fund


yeah Rod I agree the las two week of december look to good,
we gonna be in ,100% stock,everybody will be in the bus ok.:D

I was 100% I fund today, will be75% S, 25% I tomorrow. Wish I had stuckfor another day. Maybe back to I fund again for Friday.

Have a great evening!

[puertorico]

Good shot Chaplain and Smedlap too...:^

[Rod]

Chaplain wrote: I was 100% I fund today, will be75% S, 25% I tomorrow. Wish I had stuckfor another day. Maybe back to I fund again for Friday.

Have a great evening!

That's a great allocation. You will catch the best of both worlds!:^

[coolhand]

Chaplain wrote: I was 100% I fund today, will be75% S, 25% I tomorrow. Wish I had stuckfor another day. Maybe back to I fund again for Friday.

Have a great evening!



Welcome Chaplain. Glad you joined us. This isn't exactly rocket science so we can use all the help we can get :^. Happy to see you're doing well in the TSP.

[coolhand]

smedlap wrote: Keep an eye on Coolhand as he plays a Surehand!!
Thanks for the vote of confidence smedlap :). I chose thescreen name because I'm not too emotionally tied to my moves. Time is on my side and I understand enough about the market to be comfortable. That and the insight I gain here.

[smedlap]

Just got home and naturally had a lot of anticipation as I was heavy in Xmas lighting ceremony. Coolhand - now that we have the chaplain praying for us, it provides us an upperhand now. And puertorico, thanks for cheering us on. Good job with the slice puertorico. Now what we need is the chaplains research help! Puertorico - your doing fine and you have a great attitude!Your slicewill be bigger and bigger as time passes.

OK. We have Friday. Two out of 3 so far isn't bad. Labor report on Friday should carry the market even higher. But then there is not much room to go higher, if any when looking at the S&P fair value of 1225 for 31 Dec. The last two weeks of the year look hot! So that means we are facing a consolidation (or bump)in front of us - FMOC. Tom provided excellent charts and will have some sage comments upon which to draw from. I think if we get a biggain on Friday, the erosion could start Monday.

I need some counter thoughts as this is a horse daybut I need a margarita (puertorico say you) to first enjoy the rise. Also our kicker ($ conversion is not posted yet). By the way, it was a good day for everybody in C and S so let's not forget the rest of the team as there are so many! First and most important - thanks again Tom!!! :^ Tom, your sage thoughts - I'll look for on market comments!

Chaplain - a prayor for tomorrow! Maybe...:^a small one for a big gain!

Tom, you're creating monsters.............:PI was looking back to when you first started this site, not too many of the "originals" still here...........

Good luck all, careful.............

M_M

We all did well today...

Let us speak with wisdom, and keep us from greed.

Sleep well friends, and let's enjoy the season.Regardless of our daily returns, remember and give thanks for what is truly of value.

<><

[Timer]

Rod wrote: Next Tuesday will be the time to be OUT, historically speaking.Rod, out of the I or stocks in general - I think you mean stocks.

[Timer]

Wonder Woman wrote: please excuse my avatar but I thought the boys needed cheering up. I'm really anhttp://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/17/17_1_24.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
Dont let her fool you padre, you should have seen it before we asked her to put some clothes on it.
Just kidding WW :oo

[tsptalk]

mlk_man wrote: Tom, you're creating monsters.............:P
:D

Timer wrote: Wonder Woman wrote: please excuse my avatar but I thought the boys needed cheering up. I'm really anhttp://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/17/17_1_24.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
Dont let her fool you padre, you should have seen it before we asked her to put some clothes on it. Just kidding WW :oo
http://www.websmileys.com/sm/happy/783.gifYou had to tell, huh?http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_13_12v.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)

pssttt.....Padre, pay no mind to him - he's a paranoid schizophrenic who needs help. Maybe your prayers can help this poor thing! It's such a pathetic case.

[Timer]

Wonder Woman wrote: ...he's a paranoid schizophrenic who needs help.You had to tell, you just had to tell my secret :h:oo:h

Timer wrote: Wonder Woman wrote: ...he's a paranoid schizophrenic who needs help.You had to tell, you just had to tell my secret :h:oo:hTit for Tat...
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cus/e_5_3.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)

[smedlap]

Chaplain, how smart you are! You're so correct. It is that greedtrait that causes us to lose our way and make poor decisions! Thanks for the prayor. Greed has caused me to make so many foolish market mistakes which I hope Inever repeat. Research is key.

Another good posting by Tomfor Thursday. Agree with his assessment on a next week's pullback. Not sure yet if I will stay invested in stocks thru Monday COB. Have to study closely as oil impact remains a wild card. Annnnnnnnnnnnnd - the labor report plus reaction will decide a lot!

Nice morning!

[Rod]

Timer wrote: Rod wrote: Next Tuesday will be the time to be OUT, historically speaking.Rod, out of the I or stocks in general - I think you mean stocks.
Yeah, I mean stocks in general. If you look at Tom's seasonality chart, it becomes very choppy around that time and into the next week.

Angels come in many forms, some which are not always so apparent. So, we go lightly on judgments, lest we entertain angels unaware :-) Some scholars believe that cherubs were likely dragon like creatures in appearance... Ultimately, Angels translates "messenger". Wonder Woman certainlycontributesvaluable news and insight, so the ascription of "Angel" certainly applies. Occupational Hazard: Preaching :)

On to business; How high can we go? I am concerned with how far we have come so quickly. Staying the course for now, but have concerns regarding the problems in Ukraine (natural gas pipelines and such). Does anyone have thoughts on how this may effect international funds?

For Friday, December 3: S- 50%, I-50%.

Chaplain[b] wrote:Angels come in many forms, some which are not always so apparent. So, we go lightly on judgments, lest we entertain angels unaware :-)[size=2]I hereby declare myself born again!

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/28/28_4_10.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
For You Padrehttp://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_3_11.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)

Chaplain wrote: Wonder Woman certainlycontributesvaluable news and insight.... Guys, Do You Want to Second That!?

http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cus/e_1_23.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)

Chaplain wrote: Angels come in many forms, some which are not always so apparent. So, we go lightly on judgments, lest we entertain angels unaware :-)..... Hey Timer, who won that one!http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/10/10_1_124.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/15/15_8_200v.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)

Hmmmmmmmmmm

I'm not sure either. ;) It's often like that in my biz...

Oil down $7 last 3 days (cnbc@10:12am (mailto:cnbc@10:12am) cst). What impact?

Chaplain wrote: I'm not sure either. ;) It's often like that in my biz...

Oil down $7 last 3 days (cnbc@10:12am (mailto:cnbc@10:12am) cst). What impact?

I is down .22% at this point, so I am going to roll the dice and hope to pick it up cheap for Friday. Changing to 100% I fund for 12/3/04.

Faith or Foolhardy? Instincts or Emotion. Preacher or Gambler? Wahoooo!

[Spaf]

Chaplain wrote: Chaplain wrote: I'm not sure either. ;) It's often like that in my biz...

Oil down $7 last 3 days (cnbc@10:12am (mailto:cnbc@10:12am) cst). What impact?

I is down .22% at this point, so I am going to roll the dice and hope to pick it up cheap for Friday. Changing to 100% I fund for 12/3/04.

Faith or Foolhardy? Instincts or Emotion. Preacher or Gambler? Wahoooo!

Lets see: Foolhardy, Emotion, Gambler. Correct? :u

[smedlap]

Chaplain, Certainly not greed!

I think your move a good call because we're hoping the employment picture is good. Oil down and bland retailer sales so far today has kept somewhat of a cap on stocks. I think the market will be up tomorrow but then it does not matter for me as I'm committed. Q. is what will I do tomorrow morning! Market looks a bit soft as if it is trying to lead into that short term decline state. Real soft in fact as oil cost decline has not done much.

I note unemployment in Germany has grown to just shy of 11% and it looks like Asia and Euro leads are trying to do what Snow wouldn't do and that's butress the dollar so they can sell their goods to us to jumpstart their slow economies. China doesn't have that problem. But general trend is things are starting to get weak. We still have a very euphoric short term period.

[cowboy]

I like the I fund position and hope it stays positive because I think all of the funds will go up hopefully again tomorrow. If not then I will need to reposition my funds. It's nice ot see the Chaplain go for the gusto! :^If I remember right though wasn't it last time and they were saying employment picturewas going to be good and it was not?

[Timer]

Chaplain wrote: Wonder Woman certainlycontributesvaluable news and insight, so the ascription of "Angel" certainly applies. Occupational Hazard: Preaching :)No, no, no, no, Chap buddy, I know you are new around here but talk like that will go right to her head. She's hard enough to live with as it is. Go easy pal. :l

[Spaf]

cowboy wrote: I like the I fund position and hope it stays positive because I think all of the funds will go up hopefully again tomorrow. If not then I will need to reposition my funds. It's nice ot see the Chaplain go for the gusto! :^If I remember right though wasn't it last time and they were saying employment picturewas going to be good and it was not?
Hey cowboy. I like the I fund too, but it has a two fold risk, and global markets were indicating that the dollar was picking up. I know oil was reported down. The S fund has been right up there, if not a few cents higher for the month. Yes, most funds go up in a bull market. We have been getting some good and some not so good forecast to actuals from some of the stock analyst.

I seldom go higher then 30% I-fund. Heck, I can hardly sleep nights as is, being 100% in stocks.

Rgds to ya. :) Spaf

[puertorico]

Spaf Wrotte:I can hardly sleep nights as in is being 100% in stocks:

:D

[Rod]

It sure doesn't look like the I Fund (EAFE)should be down .47%.

http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/

:%

[coolhand]

Here's my two cents...

A modest one day bounce in the dollar does not a trend make. And since the dollars valueis only one component of the "I" fund it does not by itself dictate its direction.

I will say, as I've been saying all along, that the dollar is probably not going to go too much lower than italreadyhasandI also don't think it will recover at a quick pace. I may be wrong, but that's what I believe. I am still playing it "day-to-day".

Spaf, I also have not gone more than 30% deep in the "I". The "S" fund has also done well (as has the "C") so why put all ones eggs in one basket? That is not a knock on anyone, just my own way of playing the market at this time.

Chaps, I don't see the current political instability in the Ukraine as having much bearing on the "I" fund unless it gets really ugly...then I'm not so sure. If that's the case itmay then have somenegativeimpact, butthe "I" fund has no holdings in that part of the world.

As faras the employment report goes for tomorrow, no oneknows for sure what will come to pass. The consensus is for a .1% drop from 5.5% to 5.4%.

I know, I know, you can't trust the analysts (right Spaf?!) . Butother data such as the IMS report yesterday and the factory orders report today, as well as increased hiring during election years (by the Government), andseasonal jobs, make me inclined to believe there shouldbe no surprises.Oil is down big time over the last two days. Even withlackluster retail sales (mixed bag really) there is still a lot of positive indicators out there for the short term.

This is only food for thought, not a prediction. Currently 70/30 SI.

[coolhand]

Rod wrote: It sure doesn't look like the I Fund (EAFE)should be down .47%.

:%




I thought this was strange too. The foreign markets are one day ahead us and were overwhelmingly green today. How does that translate into a down day for the EAFE?

Anyone???

[smedlap]

Coolhand, Chaplain and puertorico. I'm moving to 100% S. i do not feel comfortable anymore in the I for a number of reasons. 1. Oil is declining, European and other country GDPs are suffering, foreign countries are sparring to jump in to restore their economic solvency and the dollar has run about as far down as it is fun for me.

I'mhave gone100% S effective COB Friday and watching the jobs report plus! S Fund has been doing just as well as I - good old USA team 1. Can't suggest how you play but Europe is too soft for me even if the I fund has great companies! Most think this is going to be a great Xmas. I'm trying for another 6% for Dec as the Chaplain says don't be greedy! Otherwise I would be after 12%!

Puertorico, be careful but don't retreat into G fund hiding. It's not time. Easy 3-4% gain in C or S I expect!

Point well taken. I will be S or S - C mix for Monday. I will only retreat to G when I am strongly convinced that it is imperative to do so. With only 10-12 years left, I will need to grow my account as aggressively as can be reasonably expected. That being said, the G fund as safe haven is great, but courage is called for to meet my goals for retirement. The think tank of your great minds is of great comfort as I ponder these daily decisions.

I appreciate the diversity of opinion and insight shared. All ships rise together. Anyone for a couple verses of "Kum ba yah"? :D

[coolhand]

That sounds like a good play to me. I just might do the same thing. I'm on travel all next week so I can't watch the markets as close as I'd like. Might be a good timeto take some chips off the table (so to speak). Not sure what my new allocation will be, but maybe 25/25/50 GCS.

[puertorico]

Smedlap -thankS ....I did it already move 25% from G to stock BECOUSE
I said before tha I dont like thursdays pay week almosT always take
part of the money you puting in.

now I'm 100%stock for friday.


30-C 30-S 40-I. I do not gonna put 100% in one basket unless
I see a not brainer situation euro vs dollar benefic factor them I
will go to 100% in one basket.Rightnow is not clear.that why willlooking
to be diversifie but look good 100% S for friday...:D

Timer wrote: No, no, no, no, Chap buddy, I know you are new around here but talk like that will go right to her head. She's hard enough to live with as it is. Go easy pal. :oo http://www.websmileys.com/sm/violent/sterb320.gif :oo

[puertorico]

Trivia

[I-FUND 15.00 share priceas of 12-2-04]

How highu think will be I-fund in december 31 ?

*I think will go to 15.70 "share price *:D

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote: How highu think will be I-fund in december 31 ?

*I think will go to 15.70 "share price *:D

Possibly, but I'm leaning toward S and C. As we know the I fundis at the mercy of the dollar and it decides to rebound from the basement (as oilcame down from its bubble) the I fund may not give us what we are suspecting the U.S. stocks will do.

Of course I was saying that two months ago also. :dah: That was a big mistake.

[eukrate]

Tom -
I think you overestimate the effect of the dollar. When it declines against a currrency it has the same percentage effect onthe I-fund price as an equivalent increase in the foreign market. The currency effect does not dominate the local market effect. So it's possible to have the dollar decline stop and the I-fund return would just follow the Euro markets ( like you're getting now with C and S domestically). You agree?
See
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/763.html



BTW, for your gramtically-challenged contributors, it's "have" not "of", as in "should have... (the confusion arises from the pronunciation of the contraction "should've"

[tsptalk]

eukrate wrote: Tom -
I think you overestimate the effect of the dollar. When it declines against a currrency it has the same percentage effect onthe I-fund price as an equivalent increase in the foreign market. The currency effect does not dominate the local market effect. So it's possible to have the dollar decline stop and the I-fund return would just follow the Euro markets ( like you're getting now with C and S domestically). You agree?
See
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/763.html

I totally agree. So my point is that with all things equal, use all the funds. But if the dollar is due for a increase, why not take what our strong US markets are giving and not risk the dollar fluctuations?

The EAFE is up 8% this year in local (foreign) currecy and andup 14% in US dollars. So the US small and large caps have actually done better than the international markets if you take out the dollar effect. If the dollar starts rising, why not stick with US stocks and not risk a rising dollar?

eukrate wrote:
BTW, for your gramtically-challenged contributors, it's "have" not "of", as in "should have... (the confusion arises from the pronunciation of the contraction "should've"

And for the spelling-challenged contributors, it's "grammatically" not "gramtically, as in "if your gonna correct someone grammatically on an "informal" board, at least spell it correctly... (the confusion arises from the English language which really doesn't make since a lot of times, ie the two "m's", who really needs two "m's"? You do however need to pronounce the "a", no getting around that one........) :P

Just playing with ya eukrate...............I mean "you"............of course, that sentence isn't actually a complete sentence because there is no noun before the verb.........:^

Blame it on MT.................

How do you spell bad move? Doing a transfer allocation to the F fund!



mlk_man wrote:
eukrate wrote:
BTW, for your gramtically-challenged contributors, it's "have" not "of", as in "should have... (the confusion arises from the pronunciation of the contraction "should've"

And for the spelling-challenged contributors, it's "grammatically" not "gramtically, as in "if your gonna correct someone grammatically on an "informal" board, at least spell it correctly... (the confusion arises from the English language which really doesn't make since a lot of times, ie the two "m's", who really needs two "m's"? You do however need to pronounce the "a", no getting around that one........) :P

Just playing with ya eukrate...............I mean "you"............of course, that sentence isn't actually a complete sentence because there is no noun before the verb.........:^

Blame it on MT.................

[eukrate]

Right! The moment I posted that I saw the spelling error and KNEW someone would jump on me. So I'm gramatically fit but spelling-challenged...


BTW, welcome back MarketTimer

Hey Eukrate!

Thanks. Good to see you still kicking around.

Can we change your name to Yeno (Yen and Euro)?

Ha ha.

Who cares about the spellign? Oh yeah, people with crappy systems.

MT

eukrate

eukrate wrote:
Right! The moment I posted that I saw the spelling error and KNEW someone would jump on me. So I'm gramatically fit but spelling-challenged...


BTW, welcome back MarketTimer

[eukrate]

No thanks, I like my name, eukrate. It's from an asteroid, orbiting the sun way out past mars. Here's a picture..

http://www.mountabbeydale.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/Images/Eukrate.htm



MT, what are you looking at when you conclude the market's way overbought?

[smedlap]

Agree Tom, we have strong markets - weak employment report. But that's OK! Less pressure on the Fed to aggressively raise rates. I still think a great last 2 weeks and a strong January. I am S now but somewhat sorry to have left I. One must go where the play is!

[puertorico]

Smedlap said ,One must go where the play is! Here u go :D

Hey Today before dead line what u plans for Monday ,U will stay put 100-s :)

Game on! Puertorico and Smedlap, I am with you for the domestics. 75%S and 25%C for Monday. Hoping the I fund today brings some cash. What a great week!So much to learn and understand. <><:^

[puertorico]

ok Chaplain

I'm staying 30-c 30-s and 40-I Todayand Monday...:^

[smedlap]

Chaplain, puertorico, coolhand - take a look at all that garbage on Day to Day market talk. Think they need a prayor. :# Are they tense! :end: Where is the fun? We're doing just fine here in the I post even if I'm S right now - friendly informative site. Tom's contributionsincluded.

:^Of note, even though we lost some in I yesterday, the percentage loss was cut in half due to dollar conversion. So we matched theC in loss which was insignificant. Today, S in hanging in there with the I because it lost more yesterday. That tells me that all 3 stock funds are running essentially with one another. The only threat to the I is $ intervention or that it has temporarilly bottomed its drop (which is the reputed case). Now we have to look for that bump in the road and that seems to me to center around the traditional FOMC meeting with a rate rate increase projected on the 14th. Should be only .25% with today's poor jobs report. My study of last year's data reflects the decline or consolidation or breath taker (for all 3 stocks) came concurrent with the FOMC, same day plus 1. FOMC meet on9 December 03. No FOMC during January so the horse should run again during January. But that's another study! Your thoughts??

Chaplain - that prayor!!

I fund looking good today... hang in there and we make up for yesterday + change!





Last Trade:
158.48

Trade Time:
2:42PM ET

Change:
http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.78 (0.49%)[/b]

[Spaf]

Concern over the economy has given the market a case of the fizzles. :h Is the I fund still up?

ISHRS MSCI EAFE (AMEX:EFA)

Last Trade:
158.57

Trade Time:
3:28PM ET

Change:
http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.87 (0.55%)[/b]Still looking good! :^:^:^

[smedlap]

At .62 now spaf. A great day. will have to reviw all the contributing facts!!

[cowboy]

It was nice riding with you Chaplain, and I hope your luck holds out! I'm going to pull out of I fund now and play safe with a junk and jump into the S some. I should be up a good $.18 and I was riding it 100% for the full 8 hours and the account loved it. I kind of watch weekends as the market has 2 daysof news and I been day trading so itwas nice. Being out in the Dakota's I have to depend on others for information andday trading through November was not the best but I'm learning!When you jumped into the I, Chaplain and I was setting in the day before I had a good feeling thanks for the uplift!

[coolhand]

I had to go Christmas shopping this morning so I didn't get to tell you how I played it today.

After seeing the data this morning and seeing the dollar drop like a rock, I kept my allocation at 70/30 SI :dude:. Hope that still playscome Monday.

I have to travel coast to coast next week, so I'm not sure what I'm going to do come Monday. Take it one day at a time I guess.

Smedlap, weak dollar is eventually going to force somecountries to do something if it keeps going down. That's a wild card. Hard to predict. But I would think a bounce in the dollar would still be modest. I would expect it to "trend" upward vice shoot up. The reasons why it's wallowing are still there.

Market again showed great resilence today.

Cowboy, Gonna jump too. Based on Monday's AM news, may get back into I at 30% for Tuesday. Then, I hope Tom has the forecast for the coming consolidation so I can retreat to the G when the time is right. The more you know... :)

[smedlap]

Going to jump where chaplain. The Lord whats you to malke independent decisions. Might as wellannounce I stayed I for Monday which means I cancelled my transfer at 02:00 last night. Was to tired to post. Reason I stayed was my research same time on last year's performance of the 3 funds said stay. I fund simply outperformed and the rotation or consolidation was on the FOMC apex which is 14 November this year. See 03 historical data. We made a chunk of money today. I was 100% I and remain such. Nice weekend to all. Will probably post again after I do some research! How about some counter comments.

Thanks

Smedlap,75%S and 25%C for Monday. I fund will still probably do well though? Evening news shows seem to indicate there is still some anxiousness on the part of the bulls regarding the domestic market, with mixed financial news today, so good for us, as it may put offacoming consolidation (if the crowd smells fear, they act more prudently.) I am thinking the market will continue to climb incrementally through the next week. If things still look this way on Monday, might get back into the I fund30% for Tuesday, as it seems to be the cash generator. Still too much gas in the market to think about G for me, and I just can't get my mind around the F fund. :?<><

[puertorico]

I think I-fund has some juice to squeeze yet:D
F-fund must has some pennies today:)

[puertorico]

here we go


F-6 cents
C-0 PENNIES
S-FUND 3 cents
I-FUND9 Cents :D

[smedlap]

Chaplain, you're everywhere and it's clear to me a "sure hand" player. I see some sage advise here. You're paying close attention to the site, and the market news. As in the "Pirates of the Caribbean" - the quote " Man, you need to get a woman!" Well tong and cheek!

I like your postings, a good contribution. As to the woman - I have to "contract out" to puertorico or sure hand - I mean cool hand! I have my hands too full and it's nothing but trouble - how about a quick prayor for the market, not me! But before you pray, give me your market outlook with research facts. I think we are rightsized positioned for Monday - I remain 100% I fund. Coolhand - whatsay you?

[coolhand]

Smedlap,

See my post above. I think we are still okay, but we are getting close to the point where foreign intervention may begin. Today EU/Dollar is 1.3458 and 101.95 Yen.

I can't trust the media to predict this. I also think a rise in the dollar has a greater effect on the EAFE price than I previously thought. Yesterday the dollar rebounded modestly and even though almost every overseas market was green (real green) we ended negative.

When might intervention begin? How effective will it be?

I'm only 30% invested in "I" because I don't fully understand the risk, but I do think risk has substantially risen. No reason to not havea larger allocation in domestic equities right now. They are more predictable (did I just say predictable?)

Kewl Hand,

Intervention will not happen. Why you ask? Here is why:

(1) Since Japan is at negative growth (their money market and bank accounts pay 0% interest) they can not print more money to buy their currency or go BACK into a recession.

(2) Europe is at 1-2% growth and they are in the same boat as Japan. However you have been seeing the Eurpopeans have been buy U.S. stock on the cheap and they are coming here to shop and go to Disney land. As you have see the high end retailers and Disney have been doing well. Also the NYC based hotels are at near compacity.

MEANS - BUY NYC based hotels/high end retailers and Disney stock (which is up 20% since the U.S. dollar starting really taking three months ago).

Buy precious metals and short the heck out of the U.S. dollar. It is going to fall 40% in the next year. Also I see the Euro becoming the standard currency within the next 10 years.

I strongly believe that Japan and Europe are talking to strengthen their currency and then will sale U.S. treasuries in mass because they are losing around $5.1B a day on them. A freaking day. They hold over 40% of our debt. Do a google search on Bill Gross and read his articles.

Buy TIPS (NOT MUTUAL FUNDS) and I Bonds as your bond holdings. Do not buy a bond fund that has a maturity average over three years. SELL, SELL long term bond funds and junk bond funds now.

What is means is credit card, ARMs and car loans are going to shoot up here real soon real fast and the U.S. dollar will get crushed.

Follow the trend, read the market, take ACTION and then rack in the scratch.

God bless and good night.

Dr Bill





coolhand wrote:
Smedlap,

See my post above. I think we are still okay, but we are getting close to the point where foreign intervention may begin. Today EU/Dollar is 1.3458 and 101.95 Yen.

I can't trust the media to predict this. I also think a rise in the dollar has a greater effect on the EAFE price than I previously thought. Yesterday the dollar rebounded modestly and even though almost every overseas market was green (real green) we ended negative.

When might intervention begin? How effective will it be?

I'm only 30% invested in "I" because I don't fully understand the risk, but I do think risk has substantially risen. No reason to not havea larger allocation in domestic equities right now. They are more predictable (did I just say predictable?)

[coolhand]

Take me to your leader :^.

Mr Cool,

Me leader is Mr Market...I follow his lead. His lead says:

Buy precious metals

Any currency other then the U.S. dollar

and get ready for a recession.

Good luck!

Pay off credit cards, car loans and for goodness sakes GET A FIXED RATE MORTAGE. The ARM people will be ARMless/houseless soon.

Bill



coolhand wrote:
Take me to your leader :^.

[smedlap]

OK Market Timer, this kind of tracks the facts over a long to be annual process. The Q. is we are playing relatively near term and not playing open stock markets or cyclicals. We have a basket of 3 stock funds, 1 treasury relatedand a bond related fund all invested in good assets. So in this group of 5, where do you see the play? Interest rate climb kills the F fund, which we all agree is a dead horse. Dollar decline helps the I fund, but if every economy is going to hell, one is getting a better deal on a losing stock hand. So are you advocating C fund which will keep pace with interest rate climb and give us 3-4% added gain on the annual interest rate hike each year?

Why are you going to bed at 08:00 am and wishing us good night?

Coolhand. I agree with your near term assessment and am riding the I with you for a short term. Will balance that against Tom's recommendation. The $ declined so far yesterday against the EURO, it metthe projected (1.35) target much earlier then expected. I see short-term support before moving on to 1.4. Yen still has a way to go to reach near term 1 to 1. And oil is slidding into a projected bottom of around $40 a barrell. Agree with Market Timer that a.) it is costing Japan a bundle to keep it's currency pegged to the dollar and b.) foreign major economies arepathetically poor in GDP growth! Last I looked, Germany had an 11% unemployment rate! But I don't think they collectively are coordinated right now to do anything creative. Thisweek, there is no realmajor economic activity leading us into the FOMC on Tuesday.

S&P still has 3 - 4% fair market value opportunity.

03 facts I, S and C funds gained .75, .10, and .46 respectively lastDecemberwith essentially a dry period up until Dec 16. From there, that's where they made their respective gains. The cosolidation blip was a -1% shortterm loss. OK Tom, this is where you come in with your advice!

I am in HI and it is 0425.

Play it this way. 50 I, 40 S and 10 C fund.

Let the lemmings fund their ROTH/IRAs and ride the wave until the third week of Jan and then look to heave ho. Have your new money go into the stock funds protect the big egg in the G fund.

Then look to buy the dipsand sell the tops. That is how (the folks with me) played it this year and we did pretty darn well for a bad market.

Take care and be safe.

Bill

P.S. The low end retailers are telling you the pain is going up the food chain. The start of a recession is the low end folks not doing well. The sign the recession is all most over is when the high end boys are hurting...

Do a google search on Bill Gross and read his latest articles. He is a good person to listen too.



smedlap wrote:
OK Market Timer, this kind of tracks the facts over a long to be annual process. The Q. is we are playing relatively near term and not playing open stock markets or cyclicals. We have a basket of 3 stock funds, 1 treasury relatedand a bond related fund all invested in good assets. So in this group of 5, where do you see the play? Interest rate climb kills the F fund, which we all agree is a dead horse. Dollar decline helps the I fund, but if every economy is going to hell, one is getting a better deal on a losing stock hand. So are you advocating C fund which will keep pace with interest rate climb and give us 3-4% added gain on the annual interest rate hike each year?

Why are you going to bed at 08:00 am and wishing us good night?

Coolhand. I agree with your near term assessment and am riding the I with you for a short term. Will balance that against Tom's recommendation. The $ declined so far yesterday against the EURO, it metthe projected (1.35) target much earlier then expected. I see short-term support before moving on to 1.4. Yen still has a way to go to reach near term 1 to 1. And oil is slidding into a projected bottom of around $40 a barrell. Agree with Market Timer that a.) it is costing Japan a bundle to keep it's currency pegged to the dollar and b.) foreign major economies arepathetically poor in GDP growth! Last I looked, Germany had an 11% unemployment rate! But I don't think they collectively are coordinated right now to do anything creative. Thisweek, there is no realmajor economic activity leading us into the FOMC on Tuesday.

S&P still has 3 - 4% fair market value opportunity.

03 facts I, S and C funds gained .75, .10, and .46 respectively lastDecemberwith essentially a dry period up until Dec 16. From there, that's where they made their respective gains. The cosolidation blip was a -1% shortterm loss. OK Tom, this is where you come in with your advice!

[smedlap]

Thanks Market Timer. I agree with your assessment. You were quick to type a very good analitical assessment that only market players have an understanding of.You addressed the bumps,follow-on opportunities, when to get out and the timing so hard tooften achieve in TSP - 1 week before February when the market traditionally goes stale.You also indicated you are playing with a team. Welcomed input and advice and hope you post often!

I have a foot of snow around me :(which is fun for about 2 months:^.

No worries!

As you can see if you jump ship late Jan each you with the big part of your TSP you will do well. Of course 2003 was a little different with the retroactive tax cuts to 1 Jan 03 that kicked off the bull market rally in a bear market (they normally last 10 months at a whack). I can not make the chart go back any further so you can see the pattern but the buy in November in masse and sale late January is a good "timing" method. Just so you know tax cuts normally last for 18 months until the market head down again and we are coming up to that period.

The party starts to end the end of January. Hold and hope is not a option in a down market.

Then it is fun to ride the waves up then down. Just like we did this year. I forgot who followed my advice but we had fun when the people 100% invested when the market was heading down were acting. Panic!

Also be advised (as the miliary types say). We have a pattern that appears the next big down turn will be off the table.

I told Leo the Lion about the 3 Peaks and Dome. Research on that and get ready to step aside while the uniformed and the "system" people take loses.

The informed and researched folks will do well. Hopefully that is us ;).

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/_/_dji.gif





smedlap wrote:
Thanks Market Timer. I agree with your assessment. You were quick to type a very good analitical assessment that only market players have an understanding of.You addressed the bumps,follow-on opportunities, when to get out and the timing so hard tooften achieve in TSP - 1 week before February when the market traditionally goes stale.You also indicated you are playing with a team. Welcomed input and advice and hope you post often!

I have a foot of snow around me :(which is fun for about 2 months:^.

Wanted to add...2003 was shaping up as the same pattern. January run up due to IRA funding and then hedge funds heading for the door and turning the lights off to end the party. Lemmings starting the new year off with a nice fat lose after a month and a half.

Fund your IRA (I know it is hard to wait - because we are brainwashed) late to early August. You will get the most shares for your hard earn coinage.

Have a great day!

Bill

[tsptalk]

smedlap wrote: 03 facts I, S and C funds gained .75, .10, and .46 respectively lastDecemberwith essentially a dry period up until Dec 16. From there, that's where they made their respective gains. The cosolidation blip was a -1% shortterm loss. OK Tom, this is where you come in with your advice!

I wassurprised to how well the C fund did over the S last December. The small cap January effect usually creeps into December. If we only get a 1% pullback, that would be incredible, and welcome. But we've come a long way in a short time and I'll prepare for worse, even though I will stay heavily in stock just in case I'm wrong. Like I said, I won't go less than 50% stocks while the psychology, valuation and monetary numbers are this bullish.

Tom

[smedlap]

Thanks Tom and good morning. No question, we are all not "over exuberant", butmuch more happy about the markets recent strong run up after a long stall period. Good advice. Your dailymarket postnext week willreflect yourtransfer decision. For me, it will probably be Wed COB as last year's datareflects a gradual decline in all 3 stock funds 4 days preceding, I fund was less dramatic.

[smedlap]

I think I am going to take that breather in the G fund with my transfer effective COB. I don't like the news and it will be harder tobuild on bearishearly week bearish sentimentwith OPEC - Friand FOMC - Tues as near-term attention getters. So I'm gone short term and 100% into the G fund. Good luck!

[coolhand]

Smedlap, we are on the same wavelength. After I saw the news this morning I did the same thing. Plus I'm on travel this week and can't manage my account easily.

To all-

purely defensive measure for me. Gut call. I can play again in few days. I'm not a psychic... guess I just want to get some sleep :P. Good luck.

[smedlap]

Coolhand, enjpy that travel. A gut call as you say and I think one we can easily sleep on. I will watch attentively but will do nothing until certainly Tuesday, next week. I have made my play. For those that stay in stocks, I hope the market serves them well and they make losts of money.

[puertorico]

f gain 2 cents
c-loss 1
s-loss 3
i- loss 3 not bad at all .Let's see tomorrow :shock::D

Coolhand, travel easy and be safe.

I was concerned the market would have been more vicious than it turned out. Take a penny, leave a penny... :)

[cowboy]

I thought I was out of the I fund but I quess not. I looked today and I am still 100% I fund. Which I really don't care as I think the I is going up again. My plan was to pull out then jump right back in anyway depending on the market today. I did my update close to the 11:00 am cut off and it confirmed and everything but it doesn't even show that I made a change. This is not the first time this has happened to me. I guess we have to live with this system it is better then what we had. I must of did something wrong and it did not take. Oh well it's a bull market and I fund will go up some more I think. Looking at the close this might be okay for the week again!:^

[coolhand]

Chaplain wrote: Coolhand, travel easy and be safe.

I was concerned the market would have been more vicious than it turned out. Take a penny, leave a penny... :)

:)

Thanks Chaplain. I thought so too.

Got to go, see you all in few days.

[smedlap]

Chaplain. A penny today, your wallet tomorrow. Never play into the headwinds! OPEC on Friday and Tuesday - FOMC

Very true. At the last moment I had decided to go to the F fund for today. As of right now, I may have lucked out. At this time I am poised to return to the I fund. Looks like the domestics may be soft the next few days, though the S fund may be a great bargain.

[smedlap]

Patience Chaplain, patience. Let the market come to you. I think I fund next Tuesday concurrent with the FOMC meeting. We've done well and there is no need to be greedy, or lucky. Just need to take our time.

But just to add a comment, we all know that on Friday OPEC will talk about reductions but maintain it's current production rate,and we also know the Fed will raise the rate 1/4%. So why the drop today - sentiment or market pushing by the Bulls and the Bears to allow for a greater gain starting mid December. Note the drop in the I fund was half the C and a third of the S. A better gain upon return might be to the C vice the I. We'll see but I see a headwind right now with clearer skies next week! A prayor with research!

[ou81200]

Any Ideas why the I fund was down today? The Asian market was down, but the European market appeared to be strong today:?.

[tsptalk]

The I fund was spared much of the carnage the US funds received. Lot's of red across the world however and they (international index managers) make adjustments based on how they think the Far East and Australian markets will react tonight to today's the US markets

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u (http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u)

[ou81200]

Thanks Tom. I was looking at CNN's world market. Your Yahoo site is better.

[Rod]

Maybe time tobuy into I with it falling lower???

or

Is it time to shy away???

:shock:

[ou81200]

Rod---

I'm going to take my G fund allocation (35%) and put it with the 20% I allready have in the I fund for tomorrow only.

Let's see how it plays out.

[Rod]

ou81200 wrote: Rod---

I'm going to take my G fund allocation (35%) and put it with the 20% I allready have in the I fund for tomorrow only.

Let's see how it plays out.

Since the dollar is taking small baby steps toward a rebound, I'll probably wait until tomorrow depending on if it is still down at that time.

Good luck!:^

[smedlap]

Hi gang, the market is holding and I think nicely as we predicted. A small retraction so far of about 1%. Two big events are in front of us that need attention - OPEC and FOMC. It's not that the results will be bad, just that big players might want to use the opportunity to grab a little extra cash. I do like how the I fund is controlling its losses and hanging in there. That's where i will return to on Tuesday. I like the way you guys are thinking though. You're interacting and now studying the market trends. I can see it in your posts!

[Rod]

Down 1.34% as of now... I'm jumping in for the rebound.

Anyone else dare to follow???:l

I am actually thinking of going 100% G fund until the end of the month...anyone what to join me ?

The economic reports are coming in worse and worse...

[neirbod]

I'm starting to think that way, too. I am 60% in G right now, but may go 100% soon. I expect there will be at least a little bounce in the next day or so. Might be a good time to seek coveraafter that.

I did not realize we were in such bad shape...raising inventories means squeezed earnings and lay offs down the road.

To bad we can not short the market in the TSP or at the very least do not have to wait a day to get out of dodge.

I am making a ton shorting the market today...but I am stuck in the TSP so I will stay there.

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote: I am actually thinking of going 100% G fund until the end of the month...anyone what to join me ?
Not me. You are going to miss a good run.

[smedlap]

I agree Tom. Although I nested in I much of November I think I will reenter C Fund Tuesday trading morning. Euro is projected to rise to 1.37 to $1 by March but I think I will be out of the market most of February so I Fund minor gain isn't as intertaining as the C fund strength. Of note, C fund has regained it's losses this week, S fund is sucking eggs likeI fund. Again an excellent market post this AM. I remain 100% G and patient.OPEC meeting so far hasn't cause any real retreat so far but it is also Friday. Be an interesting 3 market days to study! Good luck all!

[vectorman]

Tom, as the I fund continues its correction,at what point would you get out , according to your plan, or will you just stay in until sometime in Jan. regardless? Thanks

[tsptalk]

I am going to play chicken. As I told eukrate the other day, with all things being equal, I would continue to play the I fund. But I expect the U.S. markets and funds to do well through the end of the year so I don't want to have to worry about if the the dollar is going to rebound. I'll stay heavy in the C and S funds when I make my transfer next week. I won't deal with the I fund for now.

tsptalk wrote: MarketTimer wrote: I am actually thinking of going 100% G fund until the end of the month...anyone what to join me ?
Not me. You are going to miss a good run.
Hope you are right but I went G fund and will be very happy with my .01 gain today. The OPEC thugs are going to have their day today. Good luck!

Bill

After reading the whole article, it doesn't seem that OPEC has really done much this time. I suspect at these prices, even the million barrell a day cut won't hold as they would want to get as much as they can, while they can.

Associated Press
Update 8: Oil Prices Climb on OPEC Production Cuts
12.10.2004, 08:27 AM

Crude futures rose Friday as OPEC delegates said the group agreed to cut production back to target production levels early next year - a move that would take about 1 million barrels a day off the market.

Benchmark light, sweet crude for January delivery traded at $42.90 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 37 cents. Brent crude was fetching $40.20 on the International Petroleum Exchange, up 53 cents.

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2004/12/10/ap1704277.html

Oil production cut to start 1 Feb 05. Another reason to bail out of the market the end of January 2005....but who's crazy idea has been that for months?

Good luck!:)

[smedlap]

Good morning Chaplain and Bill, Market Timer. I too will enjoy a quick G fund take, and I agree with you chaplain on the oil. Reduction will not take effect until January and will not impact until April. Look how long it tookfrom ramp upproduction to delivery in refinery tanks. Acompora and most everyone else ispredicting a good 6 months butbeyond that, a later uncertain assessment. So I still agree with MT onbeing out of the market before the last week in January. I may go back in April and May but too many days out to decide right now. Acompora also predicted 6 month 25% gain but one knows these sayers! Right Chaplain! Would be nice though!Further, the dollar is exoected to continue it's decline. Now while I enjoy the I fund and the posters here, I think I'm going to reenter into the C fundeffective Tuesday morning. Any counter thoughts to keep me out until Wed???

Again, nice post this AM by TSPTALK - Tom or Bill, I'm not sure if I have the real name right?

Happy holidays, and shopping!

[smedlap]

I fund is getting a root canal! Glad I left on good terms.

[TGA]

Could be the 5th down day... Starting to get a little tempting for me. Any thoughts??

[smedlap]

I agree TGA but I still don't think until Tuesday or Wednesday. The dollar is supposed to start declining again. I think the C may have a better run up to New Years' and then maybe the I takes over with just a slight lead. Not to much left to give up even with the Euro at 1.4 and the yen 100 to 1. About a 2% advantage. We keep looking for that "better" consolidation but this is the end of the week on oil warning news and then we have happy monday and I'm sure the cry of inflation warnings. For me - Tues or Wed are better. I've been waiting WHICH SOME TIMES IS HARD!!!!!

[Rod]

TGA wrote: Could be the 5th down day... Starting to get a little tempting for me. Any thoughts??
Well, I gave into temptation yesterday and will feel a little bit of pain today.

Oh well... I'll get it back.:D

[ou81200]

Don't feel bad Rod, My move yesterday with the I fund did'nt pan out well.:(

I stayed in it today, but moved funds to 50% G, and 25% C&S.

I hope to gain some today since the foreign market did well.

Guess I'll see after the update.

[smedlap]

Hi guys. I'm sure you have done this. Click on EAFA symble at TSPTALK.com, which will take you to Barchart.com Go to opinion and take a look. Some of us think for many other reasons the I fund is not the right place right now even though it has been great for the year. Maybe next week. I'm 100% in G and enjoying every minute having played I most of November. I fundcertainly will turn but one has the FOMC on Tuesday. Go with the flow and be patient. Good luck and nice weekend. Don't feel bad about a bad day. We have all had too many ourselves and there will unfortunately be more!:^

[ou81200]

Thanks Smedlap.:)

[Rod]

ou81200 wrote: I hope to gain some today since the foreign market did well.





Did you mean to say the foreign market DIDN'T do well???:D

Yeah, that was my biggest hit of the week. Hopefully I'm now poised for some gains next week. I just can't stand the thought of pulling out of it rightnow.

We all know how that goes!

[smedlap]

Yes, the EAFE did poorly but don't let it trouble you. It is just not the right time with the dollar and oil gaining slightly. Sentiment slightly shifted to favor US equities or the Gand the F against inflation. Maybe next week, but I think more early January as the US economy is far better off than Europe and Asia for Christmas, less China productivity.

Just remember. You may have an infinity for a particular stock fund because it has done so well in the past or you lost money and you want to get it back. It's sudden drop is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The fate of the gambler! The stock funddosen't know you at all andcertainly has no brain powerto supplementa good supporter'sreturns. So there is a saying to go with the flow, avoid the downside when one can prudently do so and try to ride the positive crest when it exists. It certainly is also not day trading. I make only a few trades a month and some on this board make probably no more than 5 a year and do very well. Accumulation of assets takes time and when one eventually get's there, he or she is certainlyvery attentiveto trading.

Good luck

[ou81200]

I thought the european market did well:dah:. I was way off. Anyways, I cut my losses and went 50% G and 25% C&S.

Think I'll be conservative untill the market gives some kind of indicator as to what's going on.

[vectorman]

Evening Tom, I see your up late too. I was looking at the chart for the S fund from 9/19/03 to the first week of Dec. and I noticed it had 4 major corrections as it was trending up. Do you recall how you made your allocations during that time? The reason I was asking is because the I fund has had a great run and was due for some major profit taking.Being new to the site, I was wonderinghow some of the members acted during those 4 big corrections the S fund went through last fall to winter. This is only the first major correction for the I fund since it recently made its big push upward and I thought we were looking for a good pull-back.The I fund last fall to winter had a great run and corrected on Jan. 22 to Feb. 4 losing 44 cents before starting its run up again.Just looking back at the chart for the I fund the last two years, I would think this correction should be pretty close to bottom.The way you calculate trend lines using the SP500, can you do the same using the chart for the I fund? Also, correct me if this is wrong, but it seems if the I fund continues to drop then the C and S will eventually do likewise. Or if the C and S fund continue to make a slow climb then the the I fund will at some point reverse itself and climb with a vengeanceas investors put back money. Much like we saw when the Sp500 was over sold this fall. I know some will say the I fund is international and separate from the S and C funds,but if one looks at the charts for all three, they run a similiar course. Thanks for the help.

[smedlap]

Vectorman, good morning! My assessment alsoagrees with yours, a good study of the facts. Last year the I fund certainly was the best performer during this next 5-week period, and I agree, it will rise at some time to regain lost ground. It's potential from current bottom to parity with the C and S is a great return (play). My opinion is that the European and Asian economies are really hurting right now, the US economy not which may result in a Christmas periodbonus for the C fund. If oil rises in price, and the dollar declines - it is a doubleadvantage to foreign countries, thus the I fund. Thisis predicted tohappen after or during January. Dollar is still projected to go 1.4 to the Euro and 100 or less to 1 to the yen. My timing is when I see I to start to maintain parity at its current bottom (or turn). I'm back in then.

Waiting for Tom's response to your Q.and your counter thoughts. I've gone 100% C COB Monday as I think the US market will pop if the1/4 point rate hike proves true.Market should be slightly down Monday. Watch, it will be up 2% on Monday! Hah!

Just watch the U.S. dollar when it starts to go back down again...get back into I.

When you see the U.S. dollar go up then get out of I.

The trend is your friend and the trend is not to ride the I fund down while the U.S. dollar goes up.

By the way, if you research you will see around FOMC meetings this happens - the dollar gets stronger. So a week or so before the next fomc after this one - get out of the I fund.

But the monday morning quarterback said get out last week.

Morpheus

Smed

My view the wording on the FOMC statement is going to spoke the market.

I tried to help Rod last week - and he still went into I fund for the nice .40 drop but I am the monday morning quarterback here and what I say NEVER NEVER happens according to the nay sayers.

Morpheus

Hey Rod you did not mention that was good advice not to go into the I fund? Maybe I missed it.

smedlap wrote:
Vectorman, good morning! My assessment alsoagrees with yours, a good study of the facts. Last year the I fund certainly was the best performer during this next 5-week period, and I agree, it will rise at some time to regain lost ground. It's potential from current bottom to parity with the C and S is a great return (play). My opinion is that the European and Asian economies are really hurting right now, the US economy not which may result in a Christmas periodbonus for the C fund. If oil rises in price, and the dollar declines - it is a doubleadvantage to foreign countries, thus the I fund. Thisis predicted tohappen after or during January. Dollar is still projected to go 1.4 to the Euro and 100 or less to 1 to the yen. My timing is when I see I to start to maintain parity at its current bottom (or turn). I'm back in then.

Waiting for Tom's response to your Q.and your counter thoughts. I've gone 100% C COB Monday as I think the US market will pop if the1/4 point rate hike proves true.Market should be slightly down Monday. Watch, it will be up 2% on Monday! Hah!

[vectorman]

Thanks for the comment smedlap and MT. Unlike others who put some to most of there assets in the G fund which was a good move especially if they can get back in the market at the right time. I stayed in stocks (C, S &I)since they were still trending up, I'm not very good at timing,and I didn't expect a long correction period. I'm hoping there is alot of money on the sidelines, ie mutaul funds that still need to be put to work. What I did was to pull mostof my investment out of the I fund ( from 40% to 25% before it fell) and place it in the C fundsince it was still at the moving average I use for it. Plus it doesn't fall as quickly as the I or S fund. That put me at 50 C, 25 S and 25 I.Last Thursday I moved to 75 S and stayed 25 I, to take effect for Friday. My point is that even with the big drop in the I fund, I was still able toget backpretty close to striking distance tomy high before the big correction by just using the C fund, then the S fund.I'm just going to keep the 25% in I for now. I don't what to loose what I have in it by getting out and missing the bounce I know will come. Sometimes it works and sometimes not. I wish I went some in G fund, but sometimes I get too comfortable in it and cannot decide at what point to put it back to work without missing out on anything good. My returnwill not be as big as those who can get there money out of the G fund back into stocks, but its all in the timing. I tried that this summer. Sometimes it worked great and others times I lost out on big money opportunities. I would miss a big bounce or not recognize a slow recovery.I've learned alot from Tom and others on this site. The the biggest thing that I've learned is to take control of my TSP, learn what's going on in the world, try to make calculated moves without emotion and try not to panic when things appear to be heading down thecrapper. Let me say again, I'm new at moving my funds, so don't follow me. But since taking control of my TSP, I wish I would have done it years ago instead of lettingchance have control. Good luck all and come on Santa Clause ralley.

Vectorman,

Are you abiological superhero? I got a lab rat that is broke.

Find the nay sayer and do the opposite of them. Just kidding.

If you open your eyes and do some research you can greatly outperform the indexes.

I said they were crap early. Yes they are.

Five year return (last time I looked) of the S fund is 3.08, I fund is (.92) and the C fund is (.80). Not a good investmentyear over year at all unless you use historically and market news research to help boost the return. I would not be very happy to be a hold and hope and average negative one percent for the last five years. Add inflation and you are down four percent year after year. A lot of people count their matching funds in their return performance.

Send me an e-mail if you want and I will add you to my little newsletter that I started last week. Maybe I can give you some ideas.

Last week everyone was so bullish...had to splash some water on this party because when everyone is bullish it is time to rethink the game plan. Wish you would of moved with the five people that moved with me to the G fund on Thursday. But good luck. My lab rat moved into the market on Friday - the maze is in a straight line and he can not figure it out.

Should be an interesting week. Risk/reward.

Morpheus.

[Rod]

MarketTimer wrote: I tried to help Rod last week - and he still went into I fund for the nice .40 drop but I am the monday morning quarterback here and what I say NEVER NEVER happens according to the nay sayers.

Morpheus

Hey Rod you did not mention that was good advice not to go into the I fund? Maybe I missed it.




Well Bill, I simply don't know when to take you seriously.

1. On Dec 3, you said:

Stay in the market until the third week of January. Now is the time to be fully invested.

2. NowBill, you are in G.

I do appreciate your advice. But lately it has beeninconsistent and full of "mixed signals"making itvery difficult to decipher. Therefore, I took that chance then took a hit. Who hasn't taken a hit???

Maybe I will listen more once I see some consistency in your comments.

God Bless:^

[tsptalk]

vectorman wrote: Evening Tom, I see your up late too. I was looking at the chart for the S fund from 9/19/03 to the first week of Dec. and I noticed it had 4 major corrections as it was trending up. Do you recall how you made your allocations during that time? The reason I was asking is because the I fund has had a great run and was due for some major profit taking.Being new to the site, I was wonderinghow some of the members acted during those 4 big corrections the S fund went through last fall to winter. This is only the first major correction for the I fund since it recently made its big push upward and I thought we were looking for a good pull-back.The I fund last fall to winter had a great run and corrected on Jan. 22 to Feb. 4 losing 44 cents before starting its run up again.Just looking back at the chart for the I fund the last two years, I would think this correction should be pretty close to bottom.The way you calculate trend lines using the SP500, can you do the same using the chart for the I fund? Also, correct me if this is wrong, but it seems if the I fund continues to drop then the C and S will eventually do likewise. Or if the C and S fund continue to make a slow climb then the the I fund will at some point reverse itself and climb with a vengeanceas investors put back money. Much like we saw when the Sp500 was over sold this fall. I know some will say the I fund is international and separate from the S and C funds,but if one looks at the charts for all three, they run a similiar course. Thanks for the help.
V-man -
The international markets do tend to mirror the U.S. markets as you mentioned. If the U.S. markets rally through the end of the year, then the EAFE should probably follow. But right now the dollar is calling the shots for the I fund. Some say the dollar will continue lower, others think we are near the bottom. Since I'm not much of an economist, I just look at the charts and thosechartshave me guessing it's closer to a bottom but the day to day wiggles may make calling the I fund tough.

That is why I say with all things being equal, play the the I fund equally. But sincethe dollar is involved, and could be close to a longer term bottom (I don't know about the short term) it may be wise not to go too heavily in that fund, and rely mainly on the C and S when you are in stocks until we see which way the dollar is going to try to go. That's my take.

[smedlap]

Oh, I knew I would find Tom somewhere on the many posts tonight. Ineed a "Tom advice fix" before Monday trading! I have to agree with you Vectorman- excellent logic by you andsage rational by Tom. Strange to see the S&P 500 up 2.7 already. NaturallyI was hoping it would be down to advance myTuesday transitionto the C fund.Vman- you're a player because you are posting logic and you're going to be a lead because you argue your position! Fact is, you held a steady hand that did well and did not lose anything. OK Tom - S&P up 2.7 before the FOMC. Tells me a strong market? What say you now that I am off margaretta! That's the drink, not the girl!

[sonofthunder]

Hey MT Ilike your comments. :^

Q. According to the historical chart for Dec. Our next jump into the C should be around the mid-trading day of this month which will actually be the 16th Thurs. am I correct in this? Also don't you think that the S isa little high and still in need of a decent correction?

Enjoy your comments MT. Put me on your News letter list too ok. Thanks.

email to usicipk-cart@yahoo.com (mailto:usicipk-cart@yahoo.com)

[tsptalk]

smedlap wrote: OK Tom - S&P up 2.7 before the FOMC. Tells me a strong market? What say you now that I am off margaretta!
In about 3 hours I will get my comments ready for Monday. I'll do more research but for now I plan to stay "defensive" (35% G) until COBTuesday. Then I plan to get aggressive again for the end of year stretch.

[Rod]

Should be GREEN day, folks!:^

[vectorman]

BOTTOM BOUNCE???Come on baby climb... http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/European_Stock_Markets/european_stock_markets.html http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20041213&ID= 4141004 http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/foreign.asp

[Rod]

I FUND is UP 1.17%:^

Just a few more hours left to lock that in, and then some!:D

[Rod]

1.27%...............:!

[vectorman]

MarketTimer wrote: Last week everyone was so bullish...had to splash some water on this party because when everyone is bullish it is time to rethink the game plan. Wish you would of moved with the five people that moved with me to the G fund on Thursday. But good luck. My lab rat moved into the market on Friday - the maze is in a straight line and he can not figure it out.

Should be an interesting week. Risk/reward.

Morpheus.



?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????

[Rod]

vectorman wrote: MarketTimer wrote: Last week everyone was so bullish...had to splash some water on this party because when everyone is bullish it is time to rethink the game plan. Wish you would of moved with the five people that moved with me to the G fund on Thursday. But good luck. My lab rat moved into the market on Friday - the maze is in a straight line and he can not figure it out.

Should be an interesting week. Risk/reward.

Morpheus.



?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????

All that I have to say IS: UP 1.51%

I wonder what those 5 people are thinking about right now...

Rod wrote: vectorman wrote: MarketTimer wrote: Last week everyone was so bullish...had to splash some water on this party because when everyone is bullish it is time to rethink the game plan. Wish you would of moved with the five people that moved with me to the G fund on Thursday. But good luck. My lab rat moved into the market on Friday - the maze is in a straight line and he can not figure it out.

Should be an interesting week. Risk/reward.

Morpheus.



?????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????

All that I have to say IS: UP 1.51%

I wonder what those 5 people are thinking about right now...




Probably wondering where they can buy a "lab rat"............:l

[vectorman]

I know exactly what they're thinking. The some thing I was thinking on Nov. 11 & 12. I learned a hard lesson those two days.

[Mike]

I learned the same lesson on November 2nd.

[Rod]

Rod wrote: MarketTimer wrote: I tried to help Rod last week - and he still went into I fund for the nice .40 drop but I am the monday morning quarterback here and what I say NEVER NEVER happens according to the nay sayers.

Morpheus

Hey Rod you did not mention that was good advice not to go into the I fund? Maybe I missed it.




Well Bill, I simply don't know when to take you seriously.

1. On Dec 3, you said:

Stay in the market until the third week of January. Now is the time to be fully invested.

2. NowBill, you are in G.

I do appreciate your advice. But lately it has beeninconsistent and full of "mixed signals"making itvery difficult to decipher. Therefore, I took that chance then took a hit. Who hasn't taken a hit???

Maybe I will listen more once I see some consistency in your comments.

God Bless:^





BUMPED for MT.

[FundSurfer]

Well looks like I screwed up this time. Sold I on Friday...Big mistake. Oh Well, win some lose some.

[Rod]

FundSurfer wrote: Well looks like I screwed up this time. Sold I on Friday...Big mistake. Oh Well, win some lose some.
Hey, at least you're man enough to admit it.:)

Some simply "hide" behind their mistakes, then disguise them on down days.

[coolhand]

FundSurfer wrote: Well looks like I screwed up this time. Sold I on Friday...Big mistake. Oh Well, win some lose some.
It's tough to call sometimes. I got back in today (COB) after being in "G" the last 5 trading days, so I missed this last runmyself.It's looking more and more like we'll get the end of yearrally we've been expecting though. I decided not to play any games at this point. 50/50 CS. I may play the "I" again sometime soon, but for now I'm with Tom as far as staying in the domestic market.

One thing's for sure. There are always more opportunities :^.

Follow the rat, there's usually food at the end.............:P

[Mike]

EAFE went up 1.5%, the I fund went up 1.23%, and the dollar fell against the euro. I expect an I fund readjustment tomorrow.

[Timer]

FundSurfer wrote: Well looks like I screwed up this time. Sold I on Friday...Big mistake. Oh Well, win some lose some.I'm there with you brother. :?

[Spaf]

Timer...I might be missing something.

You sold a poor performer in a bull market after 4-5 days of losses.
We know the I fund has a 2-fold risk.
So!....That was good judgement to me! You didn't want to hold on to more risk! The I fund may be the best as the future may tell, but a bird in the hand is still worth two in the bush!

Rgds :) Spaf

[Rod]

Asian markets are kick'n some major butt this morning!:^

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote: Follow the rat, there's usually food at the end.............:P
Keep in mind- The early bird gets the worm, but the second rat gets the cheese!:dude:

Rod wrote: mlk_man wrote: Follow the rat, there's usually food at the end.............:P
Keep in mind- The early bird gets the worm, but the second rat gets the cheese!:dude:




LOL, guess you're right there!! http://www.techhelpers.net/e4u/animal/tier12.gif

I think I may have come with a way to incorprate the I into my allocations. Only problem is, I need to be able to day trade...........

I believe today will be a nice day for the I, maybe not though...........Still working on it, :P

Good day in Asia but the trend for the dollar is down...want to have some coinage in that pot. Will be interesting how the markets react to the economic conference.

Snow will be pushing for 1T in treasuries to start the social security individual accounts...the U.S. dollar will not like that.

Watch the flatting yield curve my fury little critter friend.

MT

[smedlap]

Hello MT, I'm bact 100% in I fund this AM having left 100% C yesterday. Monday caught me off guard at 100% C fund. I guess the market was ready to run. I was looking for some info to change my trading tomorrow but nothing so I think I will ride I for a while.

I listened to Bloomberg early this AM and the European leaders (98%) expect another1/4 point at the Feb meeting and then maybe rest 2x. They think the US economy will go somewhat soft as the cost of oil starts to impact in the foodchain. They expect it topick up the second half. Tracks the Asian viewpoint also. More to peal on this bananna to get to the ground trading truth. Staying in stocks until the week fefor the Feb FOMC!

[puertorico]

Well I'm 60-S 40-I, today and tomorrow.Just looking
one day big jump of I-Fund to make it new high:shock:it about time:shock:

smedlap u are in deep-water:DThe best of luck ok :^

[puertorico]

Well I'm 60-S 40-I, today and tomorrow.Just looking
one day big jump of I-Fund to make it new high:shock:it about time:shock:

smedlap u are in deep-water:DThe best of luck ok :^

[Paul]

Hey Smedlap, I was thinking of doing that myself but decided on 30% I. I-fund should be good at least through Jan. then I'mdroppingitfor awhile.

Luck

[vectorman]

tsptalk wrote: vectorman wrote: Evening Tom, I see your up late too. I was looking at the chart for the S fund from 9/19/03 to the first week of Dec. and I noticed it had 4 major corrections as it was trending up. Do you recall how you made your allocations during that time? The reason I was asking is because the I fund has had a great run and was due for some major profit taking.Being new to the site, I was wonderinghow some of the members acted during those 4 big corrections the S fund went through last fall to winter. This is only the first major correction for the I fund since it recently made its big push upward and I thought we were looking for a good pull-back.The I fund last fall to winter had a great run and corrected on Jan. 22 to Feb. 4 losing 44 cents before starting its run up again.Just looking back at the chart for the I fund the last two years, I would think this correction should be pretty close to bottom.The way you calculate trend lines using the SP500, can you do the same using the chart for the I fund? Also, correct me if this is wrong, but it seems if the I fund continues to drop then the C and S will eventually do likewise. Or if the C and S fund continue to make a slow climb then the the I fund will at some point reverse itself and climb with a vengeanceas investors put back money. Much like we saw when the Sp500 was over sold this fall. I know some will say the I fund is international and separate from the S and C funds,but if one looks at the charts for all three, they run a similiar course. Thanks for the help.
V-man -
The international markets do tend to mirror the U.S. markets as you mentioned. If the U.S. markets rally through the end of the year, then the EAFE should probably follow. But right now the dollar is calling the shots for the I fund. Some say the dollar will continue lower, others think we are near the bottom. Since I'm not much of an economist, I just look at the charts and thosechartshave me guessing it's closer to a bottom but the day to day wiggles may make calling the I fund tough.

That is why I say with all things being equal, play the the I fund equally. But sincethe dollar is involved, and could be close to a longer term bottom (I don't know about the short term) it may be wise not to go too heavily in that fund, and rely mainly on the C and S when you are in stocks until we see which way the dollar is going to try to go. That's my take.



What do you think Tom, can we did put a little more faith in the I fund? I read how some sound like they're really scared of the I fund. At timesI think the S fund would be more scarey. When the S fund falls it usually takes a bigger hit than the I fund.:?

[tsptalk]

The dollar dropped again today.The I fund just may keep going. I'm not ready to get in it yet though. I'm still nervous about a pullback. But when I'm nervous, the market tends to do well. :)

[vectorman]

Thanks Tom. I appreciateyour response.

[Mike]

I think people in the I fund may find this article interesting... and given the information presented in it, I believe I'll continue lightening my exposure to the I-fund over the next two weeks.

Foreign-stock bubble may burst
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GAIL MARKSJARVIS
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Investors have a knack for trotting off to stocks in foreign lands during the worst of times. This might be one of those times.

Newscasts are filled with doom-and-gloom stories about the falling dollar and hype over the benefits of investing abroad as an easy remedy. So, investors are pouring money into foreign mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

Money flowing into foreign stock funds is at record levels — $64 billion for 2004, according to the Investment Company Institute. The next-closest record was $50 billion in 2000, a period in which the foreign market tumbled 27 percent within 12 months of the hype.

The Leuthold Group of Minneapolis points to 2000 in a recent report because it is not an anomaly. Since 1994, all five periods of massive speculation in foreign stocks have ended up bruising investors — especially those who discovered hot funds after other investors had pocketed outstanding returns for months.

Consequently, after four years of strong foreign-stock performance, Leuthold is telling investors to be cautious at this point in the cycle. This year, foreign markets are up about 13 percent, giving investors almost twice the return of the Standard & Poor's 500, an index of U.S. stocks.

"While we continue to see great investment opportunities for some foreign markets in the longer term, we are concerned that excess speculation is rapidly building with regard to foreign equities," says Leuthold analyst Eric Bjorgen. "Recent momentum is not likely to last."

To highlight the concern, Leuthold used this title for its research: "Offshoring the Next Bubble."

The flows of cash into foreign funds this November tripled from last November and rose almost 50 percent in the last four months to $6.2 billion. Historically, that level of investing has portended disappointment for investors in foreign stocks.

Bjorgen found that the last five peaks in foreign investing occurred when cash flowing into foreign funds surged more than $5 billion during a four-month period.

Since 1994, each time investors poured that much cash into these funds, markets fell during the next three months — averaging a 4.3 percent decline.

The latest speculation has prompted investors to buy foreign market exchange traded funds like never before. So-called ETFs are like index mutual funds that trade like a stock. They bundle many types of stocks and allow investors to buy a diverse package.

The Investment Company Institute has reported that money flowing into foreign exchange traded funds is up 82 percent for the year. Among popular foreign ETFs are iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA), an investment in a broad index of foreign stocks, and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), which invests in developing nations such as Brazil.

Long term, Bjorgen thinks these will be sound investments. But given the speculation, the Leuthold Group is reducing its holdings in emerging markets. The investment manager had 9.3 percent of its portfolio invested in emerging markets, but this month cut back to 8 percent and plans to reduce exposure even more.

Typically, Leuthold holds only 5 percent in emerging markets because of volatility.

As an example, Morgan Stanley Latin American strategist Mario Epelbaum notes in a recent report on maturing emerging markets: "In the last 10 years, neither Mexico nor Brazil has strung together three years of positive performance in a row."

Still, he is not recommending that investors sell Latin American investments: Valuations aren't excessive, Mexico pensions are going to be buying stocks for the first time in January and Brazil continues to participate in a commodity boom.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economist Richard Berner notes: "The pace of overseas economic activity is slowing. The slowing is widespread, as China's production machinery is decelerating, Japan's capital spending cycle paused, and European growth fell by half over the third quarter."

That doesn't mean the economies are near recessions or that investors should deviate from putting a portion of 401(k) money into well-diversified foreign funds.

But speculators trying to catch what they've missed should beware.

"Investors who missed the party in the early years of this decade could opt to wait until these funds correct," says Morningstar analyst William Samuel Rocco.

[smedlap]

Thanks Mike, valued article. While I did well yesterday 100% I. fund my thinking is to follow the earlier recommendation of Tom and your current recommendation. It appears the$ is near it's bottom now and will start next year a long slow recovery. The S fund has been strong and our economy is getting stronger. I thought I had a better short term catch-up play with the I against the S. Both S and C are 1% ahead of the I still from it's pullback andthe I fundhas just gotten back to it's high. Or I may stay put and hope to pick up that 1% advantange if I closes on S.Interesting decisionsin a great stock period! Fingures crossed all keeps going!

[coolhand]

Thanks Mike, this is a good article. Between the collapse of the dollar to historic lows andthe massive amounts ofmoney pouring into foreign investmentsI think we should wary of how much exposure wehave to the "I" fund.

We also need to take into consideration, as the article points out, that China is slowing down its econmomy and thatEuropean and Japaneserates of growth maynot justify a continued run-up in the "I" fund.

Smedlap...what do you think?

[Wheels]

Excellent article. Thank you. I'vehadbetween a third and a half of my TSP account in the I over the last few months. I think the dollar is going to slip a little more so I will stay put for just a little longer, but that article tells me it's time to have an exit strategy in place.

Thanks again

Dave

[Mike]

No problem fellas. I'm sure I'll be bailing within a week. No sense in trying to ride it all the way to the top and bring in the risk of the plunge. May as well lock in already-good profits. :)

[Show-me]

Interesting article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/26/weekinreview/26kapl.html