Safetyguy's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Talk about Safetyguy's Account

[Safetyguy]

As point of background, I am a mid career, mid level, gov worker with a couple of hundredthou in the TSP. The goal is to get things to appreciate to well over a million in the next 15 years. So both growth and capital preservation are my goal.

Here is my "investing logic" --

I use the free analysis tools on Yahoo for each of the funds and try and use objective criteria to make myallocation choices. Assuming I can't be right 100% of the time, I hope to be right more often than I am wrong.

Here is an example of the free Yahoo tool. You can enter the symbol for the TSP surrogate index (i.e. AGG, ^GPSC, EFA) to get the same info for the other funds.

example


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DWCPF&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=p12,r14,f14,m26-12-9,w14&c=


For a three month period, I try to figure out which indicator has the best correlation to the up/down price of the particular index. You can take a look at the same charts and see if you can find the same patterns. (I print them out, take a ruler and mark a line down from the best buy and the best sell dates and see which indicater is "most predictive". )

For instance, right now it looks like the W%R looks like the best fit to each of the TSP funds. The MACD isn't bad either but not as close a correlation. Based on this my interpretation for the upcoming week is as follows:

The EAFE (I Fund surrogate) may be starting an uptrend and hopefully it will start on Monday. If you already have it, hold it and see. I wouldn't buy in until it drops further.

I wouldn't get into the AGG (F Fund surrogate) right now. It seems on a downward trend and will stay there a while.

The S&P 500 (C Fund surrogate) seems like it is on a downward trend. Again a hold recommendation. I have a lot in C right now hoping for the Santa Claus rally. Hopefully emotions and gut feelings won't cost those who are in C.

The DWCPF (S Fund surrogate) looks like it is in an upward trend. If I had money in G, I would be dumping it into S right now.

Currently 51C, 30S, and 19I. Depending on howthings go on Monday before noonEST, I may dump my I and goto something like Tom (70S 30 C). Like everyone else, I'll read Tom's comments because sometimes his gut read on things isn't too far off.

Also, my strategy is also changing. I find it too hard to try and time all these changes on a day to day basis. Everytime I have tried to catch the market, I have failed. The 12 noon ET deadline and being unable to make another change that will be effective until COB the next day is a "day and a half"window of vulnerability if your timingis just a bit off. I think I will look at thingsas more medium and/or long term trends but time will tell.

Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.

I think I will be paying close attention to your comments and allocation changes. You are doing a lot of hard work, and your contributions will be well received. Thanks, and Merry Christmas! <><

[tsptalk]

Safetyguy wrote: Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.
Sounds like a solid, well thought out strategy. I look forward to your input.

Now get working on a secret system, will ya? :D

[Rolo]

Awesome! Being a fan of the more technical, I am staying tuned.

Looking at C like this: (copy and paste link)


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e50,e10,e20,v&a=w14 ,r14,m26-12-9&c


has me keeping my eye on it now. Perhaps using an MA and W%R together may be the ticket to keep from selling too quickly and having to buy back at a higher price yet avoid most of a dip.

[Spaf]

Safetyguy wrote:
Unlike others who have a secret system, I have laid out my strategy in glorious details. These are just my thoughts -- let me know whatyou think and/or any other refinements that should be included.



Yahoo hasgood charts that will give various technical analysis. I am in agreement with you, and have all the TSP funds set up on individual charts. Yahoo seems to be the easiest to set up and use.

There are other free sites with variations there of, i.e:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?SPX

Good luck to you Safetyguy, keep us posted on what you figure out on the technical analysis, andthose indicators, how well they work.


Rgds :) Spaf

[Safetyguy]

Spaf wrote:
There are other free sites with variations there of, i.e:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?SPX




This is an interesting site albeit somewhat more complicated than Yahoo-- I'll play with it a bit and see if anything interesting turns up. Thanks!! :^

[Safetyguy]

Went 45C 45s 10I

Wanted to catch some of those gains in the I fund today.I am still nervous about some of the technical indicators. They are at a point where they can trend up or down. Why gamble in I when things look more solid in C and/or S.

Putting more into S -- we'll see if that is a good move or not.It looks good from a technical standpoint but todays' oscillating prices are of concern. All the talking heads think small caps have run their course and the big run up will be in the S&P. Hopefully they will be right (just for today) and the price of S will be down a bit at the end of the day.

I was going to park some cash in G until tomorrow or Wed (to buy whatever is low tomorrow or Wednesday). Since it now looks like 7 days between penny increases, the penny earned in G didn't come on Friday.Since the G will probably pick up a penny today and why buy the gain!! I'll gamble & stay fully invested in the stock funds.

[Safetyguy]

Never mind -- see previous comment

[Safetyguy]

No change – letting everything ride at 45C 45S 10I.



I did well yesterday moving half of what I had in I plus adding a bit more from C into the S fund– it was fortunate that I was able to sell high and buy low (I usually end up doing the opposite) . The stocks that hit the S fund the hardest seemed to be component makers for the Apple I Pod. I thought I Pods were selling like crazy so who knows. I think it was a blip for the S. The technical analysis still looks good for the next day or so.



Today, I debated taking everything out of “I” but I couldn’t figure out the best place to put it. I also played the opposite extreme – did I want to put more into “I”? While I don’t see it dipping down in price, I don’t see it increasing as dramatically as the C and the S can.

[Safetyguy]

Went 10 G, 45 C, 45 S to be effective COB today.



Dollar seems to be mixed on the currency markets. My concern is bond performance and the value of a buck is probably going up (and costing me if I stayed in I.) Hopefully I will be back up to 15.09 by COB.



Went to G and will buy whatever stock fund dips tomorrow – if not, I’ll just wait until next week.

[Safetyguy]

Safetyguy wrote: Hopefully I will be back up to 15.09 by COB.

Wow -- the I fund at 15.14 did better than my expectation. I now have the 10% that was in I shares parked in G.I will move it into whatever drops the most tomorrow. All the indicators for C, S, and I look good however -- C and S look stronger when looking at the W%R.

I am concerned that the Asian markets are open on Friday and the bond markets are supposed to be open for half of the day. There is a lot of time between noon EST on Thursday and COB on Monday. Does anyone have any thoughts about how to turn this into an advantage?

I also saw in another thread that someone put everything in G todayhoping for a drop on Thursday to move back in. This is a very interesting play. If things areup on Thursday (say 1%), it may be a smart move to go 100% G and wait for the next big down day (which could be coming next week.) I have been burned on this "TSP Day Trading" strategy but will consider such a move in the morning.

[FundSurfer]

Safetyguy, your allocation isn't what I expected based on your name. You are very aggressive. :shock:

Looks like you have put a lot of thought into what you are doing. I look forward to following what you are doing.

"find it too hard to try and time all these changes on a day to day basis"

I agree with you completely. Whenever I've tried to get too cute, I've missed by a day or two and gone backward.

[Rod]

Safetyguy wrote: Went 10 G, 45 C, 45 S to be effective COB today.


Went to G and will buy whatever stock fund dips tomorrow – if not, I’ll just wait until next week.

This was a bit confusing... Where did you go?

[Safetyguy]

Rod wrote: Safetyguy wrote: Went 10 G, 45 C, 45 S to be effective COB today.


Went to G and will buy whatever stock fund dips tomorrow – if not, I’ll just wait until next week.

This was a bit confusing... Where did you go?





Before the noon deadline on 12/22, I moved my 10% that was in I into G. So I start 12/23/04 at 45 C 45 S and 10% G. If I make a move, I will post it AFTER I make it on the TSP site - so there is no confusion.

[smine]

I moved 50% to the I fund yesterday. It looks like the EFA markets are up last time I checked this AM. They also are open Friday whereas the USA is closed. Now I need to decide to take my gains and go to safe G or put 100% in the I fund :shock: I may just take the gamble and do it!!

[Safetyguy]

Just went 10 F 45 C 45 S (12/23/04 before noon EST) for the long weekend.



I went into F because it is down -- a complete gamble on my part. Maybe it will be up a bit on Monday and makea move then and collect a little profit.

I is up because the dollar is going lower. Who knows what will happen in the Asian markets tomorrow and maybe the dollar will be up on Monday. Since safety is managing risk, I will stick with the US markets for now.

For those in I, good luck and I hope it works out for you. I'll probably join you next week.

[smine]

You're probably right. I took my 50% I and reduced it to 25%; put the rest in S. Good luck and happy holidays.:^

[smine]

I reduced my I to 25% and went 75% S. Happy holidays and good luck:^

[Safetyguy]

Just went 30C 50S 20I on 12/27/04 @ 0732 EST (before noon deadline, effectivefor 12/28/04)

Went into the I fund because dollar is down again. TheFTSE 100 is up 0.22% and the Nikkei is about even now. Iwas guessingthat I share price will drop a bittoday because of the tragic earthquake/tsunami but so far the markets haven't reflected this yet.

The rise/fall of the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 4500 still match the W%Rs pretty well and is telling me to stay in both. The correlation isn't so good for the EAFE -- it seems that the slope of the W%R line is what is indicating buys and sells (if you exclude the declining value of the dollar). Right now itlooks like asell-- at least for the short term. SinceI don't have any I, itseems the time to buy a little. The entire increase I see by the end of the year may becausethe dollarmightrise to$1.40 to the euro by year's end. I'll gamble 20% and hope I don't get burned by the chop.

I'll look at how things are shaping up later this morning, so stay tune for any late minute changes.

[Safetyguy]

In Safetyguy Account, you can see that I am 50S and 50I --



Despite my better judgment, I think I was late to the I Fund party -- bought high and may be forced to sell low(er).



Value of the Yen is up but the Euro is down today. Here is where the gamble part comes in. There is a good chance the Bank of Japan will sell yen to get it down to ~101 yen/dollar from its current >104. They did something like this in the last three trading days of 2003, maybe they’ll do something like that again soon.

[coolhand]

I'm with you. I've read the talk about the BoJ possibly doing just that. I know some of us who jumped into the "I" this week (me included :shock:) are nervous about jumping in when we did. It is only an educated guess on my part, but the reason the dollar is where it is has not changed.Speedbumps obviously have to be expected. I'mstaying put for a little while yet (probably 2 - 3 weeks anyway).Just my thoughts. Good Luck!!!:)

[Safetyguy]

coolhand wrote: I'm with you. I've read the talk about the BoJ possibly doing just that. I know some of us who jumped into the "I" this week (me included :shock:) are nervous about jumping in when we did. It is only an educated guess on my part, but the reason the dollar is where it is has not changed.Speedbumps obviously have to be expected. I'mstaying put for a little while yet (probably 2 - 3 weeks anyway).Just my thoughts. Good Luck!!!:)

Well I think the Japanese stock and bond markets are now closed for the year (they have a holiday on 12/31 and 1/3) but it is good to see the Nikkei up a bit tonight.

Japan's currency fell to 141.36 per euro at 12:25 p.m. in Tokyo from 141.29. The yen was also at 103.85 per dollar, up from 103.86 yesterday.

Even though the Japanese markets are closed, this does not preclude the Bank of Japan from making a move. According to Bloomberg, "Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki on Dec. 28 said Japan ``will closely watch the exchange rate'' during the holidays."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html

Coolhand - I wish you didn't the term jumping in your post. I keep thinking of that scene in "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" where they jump off the cliff and yell "Oh sh..!!"

I guess since Paul Newman was Coolhand Luke in an earlier movie, you can be Butch and I'll be Sundance. Now Iwant to know who these guys are and why they are chasing our TSP gains. I guess we jumped off the cliff togetherinto the I fund this week. I'm with you on this-- let's see how it plays out in the next week or two.

[coolhand]

Safetyguy wrote: Now Iwant to know who these guys are and why they are chasing our TSP gains.



From the movie:

Butch: I think we lost 'em. Do you think we lost 'em?
Sundance: No.
Butch: Neither do I. :D



http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex---Dollar-loses-ground-after-weak-Chicago-PMI---UPDATE-1_9837301.html

[Safetyguy]

Currently 50S and 50 I

As I start today, I really don’t know what to do. My technical indicators say it is time to start thinking about getting out of the S fund (and the C fund if I had any money there.) This of course means that sometime in the near future after these two drop, it may be a good time to buy into the C & S funds. I don't know what to say about the I fund. The MSCI EAFE Index looks like a strong place to stay BUT I fund investors have to worry about the value of the US Dollar as well.


As of 7:37 AM, S&P 500 futures are up almost 5.6 points and at 7:17 AM the value of the dollar to the euro is up 0.24% and the dollar to the yen is up 0.14% -- not too good for the I if the trend continues all day. I suspect traders and investors are doing some dollar selling because they think the sawbuck will drop further and/or the Bank of Japan will do something to get the yen/dollar ratio down.


So as the New Trading Year begins, the predictions are that the dollar will continue to drop. If it does there are two places to be – I fund and C fund. Why C fund you ask? If the dollar falls, the Small Caps who tend to be more US companies will be hurting more than the Large Caps who are very global and have hedged their bets with businesses around the world. Also, it has been six years that small caps have outperformed the large caps – incredible but is it reallysustainable for another year???


Over the next week or so, I would like to reduce my S holdings to 30% and move 20-30% into C. The rest will be in I. Timing is everything to ensure the maximum gain here.


I’ll check in before noon and decideabout making a change. If the EAFE Index is down 0.3 % or so and the value of the dollar is up, I might move more $$ into I. If the S&P is down, that is whereI move somemoney. Ifeverything is up, I probably will stay put.

[Safetyguy]

My comments earlier this morning seem somewhat prophetic at noon. Too bad I didn't figure it all outbefore the TSPinterfund transfer deadline of noon last Friday. I guess I missed the signs because I was hoping for a good start to January.

Euro is down significantly in value compared to the dollar and the yen is too (but to a somewhat smaller extent). Who knows how this will play out on the closing price ofI fund shares today???

I have no choice but to ride out my current allocation of 50I and 50 S. I can't think of a move than won't cost me hundreds of dollars. No change for today.

Like Scarlett O'Hara said "Tomorrow is another day". If she were in TSP, she would have said "Tomorrow is another day if I can't get my interfund transfer in by noon Eastern"

[Safetyguy]

Changed to 10C 20S 70I on01/04/05 @11:00 EST (before noon deadline, effective on 01/05/04

My analysis sez things may be bottoming out todaybut I am worried thatthe value of the yen is down but the euro is up.

[Safetyguy]

Staying 10C 20S 70I



Someone tell me why S keeps dropping!!!!

[cowboy]

Im guessing but I think we will hit support soon as C is holding. S may drop another .20 and then go up tomorrow.

[Safetyguy]

Changed to 40C 20S 40I on01/06/05 @11:30 EST (before noon deadline, effective on 01/07/04

Just a reallocation to put more into C. Too much going on with the currency markets and I wanted to reduce my exposure in the I fund. All the TSP funds should be bottoming out and be rising soon (at leastI hope they will).

[Safetyguy]

40 G , 20 C , 40 I @11:20 AM ET on 1/12/05



My level of pain in the S is too high – it has dropped over 5% since beginning of year. Lightening up on C but staying 40% in the I. Good to see Tom made a similar move.

[Safetyguy]

Just to further explain the thought process --

I can't see anything in the technical indicators that say to me that I should stay in S (I looked at W%R, MACD, RSI, ROC, AROON, etc.). In fact, I hate to say it buteverything looks like it is saying get out of the Wilshire 4500 and S fund.

Looking at the same technicals for the C and the I --

They look better than those for the S by a long shot (and the EAFE is looking real good today). I think I may get back in S in a week or so but let's see how it goes first.

OK Tom cancelled his change right before noon and stayed in the market. I chose to goon the defense by moving 40% into G. If I am wrong,I lose some profit. If this was indeed a good move, I preventedsome of the"reverse compounding effect"if small caps drop even more. (Say I lose 10% of total value in my account. From my new 90% position, I have to make at least 11.1% to get back to my original starting positiom. This 11.1% doesnot count the amount to needed to match the positive return if I had left my originalamount in100% G fund while clawing my way back.)

What does everyone think of this rationale? For those who are technical traders, how are you interpreting the indicators?

[Safetyguy]

20G 25C 15S 40I at 11:40 AM ET on 1/18/05



Sticking with my I allocation to see how the dollar exchange thingy pays off. I think 15S is a gamble but should be OK over the next week. I did think about being a contrarian and going a lot into F but my experience in F has always been bad.

[Safetyguy]

Went 35C 30S 35I this AM (2/2/05) at 9:30 AM ET

The indicators that I have been using (W%R, RSI, MACD, Short/Long Term Moving Averages) tell me to get back into stocks. I might get whipsawed a bit because I panicked last week and went 60% into G. I am still hoping for a drop today after the Fed announcement (which is why I didn’t get back in yesterday).

I still can’t figure out why Namor and SystemTrader went 100% F today. I just don’t see anything that points to the F fund going up. Usually the W%R is a good indicator of what is happening in F – but it is showing a down trend right now. I hope you guys do well. It is good to see my buddy Coolhand get back to being a Bull – even though he is still hedging with 35% in G.

[SystemTrader]

Safetyguy wrote: I still can’t figure out why Namor and SystemTrader went 100% F today. I just don’t see anything that points to the F fund going up. Usually the W%R is a good indicator of what is happening in F – but it is showing a down trend right now. I hope you guys do well.


I'mstill in stocks today (including some funds in the S&P 500 in oneaccount). But I'll be out by COB.

As for why I'm going F, well, I guess my system looks at the world a little differently than most people/indicators. ;) It will be interesting. We'll see what happens!

John

SystemTrader wrote:


I'mstill in stocks today (including some funds in the S&P 500 in oneaccount). But I'll be out by COB.

As for why I'm going F, well, I guess my system looks at the world a little differently than most people/indicators. ;) It will be interesting. We'll see what happens!

John


S&P? You have no allocation in the C? We back stepping? You guys crack me up.........

[Safetyguy]

100G @11:50 EST on 2/25/05



I fund indicators look strong (for now) but I don't want to gamble. Could be a “dead cat bounce” in C and S right now and I hope it holds until the end of the day.

[coolhand]

Safetyguy wrote: 100G @11:50 EST on 2/25/05



I fund indicators look strong (for now) but I don't want to gamble. Could be a “dead cat bounce” in C and S right now and I hope it holds until the end of the day.
Great minds think alike. :DNice to hear from you again.

"C" and "S" seem to be holding their own right now and are moving rapidly upward (.72% and .67% respectivelyas I write this). The "I" is up .72% too. Nice time to sell in my opinion. :^

Let's hope it holds, but I think it will.

[Safetyguy]

coolhand wrote: Great minds think alike. :DNice to hear from you again.

"C" and "S" seem to be holding their own right now and are moving rapidly upward (.72% and .67% respectivelyas I write this). The "I" is up .72% too. Nice time to sell in my opinion. :^

Let's hope it holds, but I think it will.

:^ Well Coolhand, it looks like we succeeded in banking some moolah. I'm getting close to making up for my January losses -- how about you?

I'm not sure ifwe were at the top of the price curve but I think it was a pretty close call. Seriously --look at thepattern in the W%R and RSI, we could be near the peak or the beginning of a prolonged upward trend.I'm looking for a dropin the next two to four days which might be a good time to get back in.If it doesn't drop, I'll put my tail between my legs and buy back in at higher prices (if I see an upward trend)

I alsoam pondering the best wayto play the C fund in March given the pending S&P 500 free-float adjustment. There will be some volatility here but maybe the market has already compensated for it.

[tsptalk]

Anyone smartenough, or brave enough to jump into stocks last Tuesday or Wednesday got what they deserve. A nice gain!

Well done!

[coolhand]

Safetyguy wrote:
:^ Well Coolhand, it looks like we succeeded in banking some moolah. I'm getting close to making up for my January losses -- how about you?

I'm not sure ifwe were at the top of the price curve but I think it was a pretty close call. Seriously --look at thepattern in the W%R and RSI, we could be near the peak or the beginning of a prolonged upward trend.I'm looking for a dropin the next two to four days which might be a good time to get back in.If it doesn't drop, I'll put my tail between my legs and buy back in at higher prices (if I see an upward trend)

I alsoam pondering the best wayto play the C fund in March given the pending S&P 500 free-float adjustment. There will be some volatility here but maybe the market has already compensated for it.

I have a little ways to go to get back to even, but yesterday certainly helped by being half in the "I" fund.

While I watch charts, I mostly listen to more experienced chart readers including those on other boards. What I am seeing is many savvy chart readers being dumbfounded by how the market is reacting to any given news, be they bears or bulls or something in between (not always, but enough to make me realize I have to be on my toes). The market is very sensitive to information right now and chart reading (IMHO) needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Of course I can say the same thing for the fundamental side of the house too.

Bottom line is to be wary in this market (which you are). There are still very real pitfalls in the global economy, driven in large measure by our dubious domestic monetary policy and they are not going to disappear anytime soon. It is my belief that nervousness prevails, but that is not stopping traders from trying to make money. We saw what happened earlier this week when the South Korean Central Bank made comments about diversifying away from the dollar; a good drop in the market. :sWhat if China or Japan said that? They hold a lot more US treasuries.

Until global imbalances begin to shift to a more even keel the market is going to be very sensitive. It's a gamblers market right now and the stakes are getting higher.

My thoughts going forward are that we are closer to a top than the bottom. Just like you I expect a drop sometime next week. I will be happy to simply play thedipsright now. Even then I'll be hedging.

[Safetyguy]

coolhand wrote: My thoughts going forward are that we are closer to a top than the bottom. Just like you I expect a drop sometime next week. I will be happy to simply play thedipsright now. Even then I'll be hedging.

I guess we need to figure out how far things will drop. With my luck, the market will probably will shoot up like a rocket on Monday. If this does happen, at least I can take some comfort that I am not losing any money.

If there is a 2% to 3% drop in the next few days I may get back in all the way. If it is this 0.5% to 1% -- up & down stuff we have seen lately, I may just ride it out in G until there is a more definitive upwardtrend.

I tried playing the dips last year -- it is very tough to time it right and you could get caught in the whipsaw.Coolhand,remember sometimes the best TSP move is NO MOVE AT ALL.

What baffles me is whypeople are going into the F fund ?I wish them luck.

[coolhand]

Safetyguy wrote: I guess we need to figure out how far things will drop. With my luck, the market will probably will shoot up like a rocket on Monday. If this does happen, at least I can take some comfort that I am not losing any money.

If there is a 2% to 3% drop in the next few days I may get back in all the way. If it is this 0.5% to 1% -- up & down stuff we have seen lately, I may just ride it out in G until there is a more definitive upwardtrend.

I tried playing the dips last year -- it is very tough to time it right and you could get caught in the whipsaw.Coolhand,remember sometimes the best TSP move is NO MOVE AT ALL.

What baffles me is whypeople are going into the F fund ?I wish them luck.

Don't know where the bottom is in the near term. Or the top for that matter. I'm not playing these small moves up and down either. Could be a break higher this week though.GDP was a good read last week. Not to hot and not too cold. But I'll be darned if I'm going to get too optimistic. We need to see where this market wants to go and this week will probably give us a good indication.

Currently 8:15EST the dollar is down against the major currencies. Japan and Austrailia are rallying. Looks like the "I" fund may do well tomorrow, but it's way too early to tell. FOREX moves can turn quickly.

The "F" fund?It has a lot more potential to move lower than higher. Butit does not move quickly in either direction (unless foreign central banks starting selling dollars or inflation is confirmed as a problem).

If the dollar continues to drop on Monday, watch oil. I bet it moves higher. Be interesting to see how the marketreacts if that scenario plays out.

[Rolo]

coolhand wrote: The "F" fund?It has a lot more potential to move lower than higher. Butit does not move quickly in either direction
Candlestick-wise, AGG looks like it will change direction and move back up; I believe an up day tomorrow would confirm it. I agree: it's not a fast-mover.

If I were to use G, I may try F instead, 50/50 anyway, but, I am happy with C/I atm.

[coolhand]

Rolo wrote: If I were to use G, I may try F instead, 50/50 anyway, but, I am happy with C/I atm.

I'm liking "i"overc/s.The dollar is under pressure again.Plusa lot of money flowed into foreign markets in January. Could be a trend for awhile.

[Safetyguy]

It looks like we picked up a penny in the G today (a very nice and early surprise).

I thought the I fund might hold out today (which it did). All the other stock funds were down as predicted, albeit this half percentage (give or take) stuff again. I think if we get 2% down from Friday's high, I'll get back in.

I'm still don't know the impact of the free float adjustment to the S&P in March (and how the TSP Fund "mismanagers" will deal with it).Thus, I may stay out of the C fund for a while. I tend to shy away from things that I don't fully understand.

At 9:23 PM (2/28/05), it looks like S&P futures are flat as is the Nikkei. The dollar is a slight bit higher vs. the euro and the yen. Oil is up 0.5% right now. We will have to see if anything major develops by morning.

As Scarlett O'Hara said, "Tomorrow is another day!"

[Safetyguy]

Staying 100% G --

I considered following Tom with a token percentage into CBUT I don't think we hit bottom yet. I am still looking for at least 4% off the S&P high (maybe 1176) before I get back in. My thinking is C is better than S right now. Remember the Drops come quicly these days and theRises back to the top takemuch longer-- I rather missa half point of gain than risk losing an extra percent or two if the bottom hasn't been hit yet.

I think I fund is too risky now -- the dollar's downward trend has tostop soon (doesn't it?). Remember if the dollar gets too low, the other central banks (e.g. Bank of Japan) can manipulate some strength back into the dollar. If the dollar rises, the I fund "has to make money the old fashioned way" -- it has to earn it!!!

I was toying with the idea of going into F (see comments in F funds section) this week, but it isn't worth the risk for maybe a 1-2% upside (at most).

[Safetyguy]

My rationale for moving 60% back into stocks --

For the 30% I, Dollar going down in value. More importantly,the W%R and RSI on the chart is starting to rise from the bottom -- if the past holds true, it should continue upward.

For the move into C (30%), I don't think the RSI will go lower and even though it doesn't show well on the Yahoochart, the W%R is starting upward. Also, with the reports on Friday, it could go up.

[Safetyguy]

Here is the chart for the S&P 500 -- you can start to see the trend (if you discount that one bad day this week)

[coolhand]

I was starting to wonder whether or not you were ever going to post again.

Tough market, huh?

[Safetyguy]

coolhand wrote: I was starting to wonder whether or not you were ever going to post again.

Tough market, huh?


It has been a tough market. I thought that when I bought into C S & I in late March and early April, it couldn't go any lower.

Iwent out of C,S, & I on 2/25/05 (same time as you did if I remember correctly) and into G when C=12.94 S=14.59 and I=15.82.

I thought I bought at a low-- C=12.64 and I=15.45 on March 31st & I bought S=14.23 on 4/4/05. Boy, I was getting worried there about whether or not I would ever be able to retire-- how low couldthe market go?

So,the numbers for today are C=12.91, S=14.68, and I=15.19 & if Iforget about my losses in the I-fund, I may have made a bit on this "sideways" market. One good thing about the way I moved in/out of the I fund, I cut my losses compared to if I had stayed put in I fund (i.e., only a26 cent loss as opposed to a63 cent loss)

The I fund has disapppointed many of us. It is baffling to figure out how it works and the way the dollar is going ... Good luck to all in the I fund, the "pot" is too rich for this player!!!

So in summary, I guess you can say I chickened out and went to G for the time being. I may be missing some gains in the next few days but I don't want to risk 1-2% losses right now.

I think that things will go down a few percentage points in the near future andI will buy back into the TSP equity funds then. BUT --let's see howmy wacko theoryworks in reality.

[Safetyguy]

Why did I get out of L2020 today andthen go 50 G and 50 I?

I was starting to get worried about the US markets. I looked at the charts that correspond to F C S I. For C and S -- it looks like a downward trend (if you look at the W%R and the RSI indicators). F is a a bigger mess (even though it looked promising a few days ago). The I looks like it may be on the way up, and the dollar is going down. Until there is a little better continuity bewteen the US and foreign markets, I went 50 I and parked the rest in G.

As for L2020, I did pretty well in the latest downturn (I went in at 13.19 and yesterday it was 13.13, it probably will be backto the 13.02 rangeby COB today). Depending on Microsoft's earnings announcement this PM, it could get ugly in the C and S fund. If things look good tomorrow or in the next few days, I may jump back into L2020 or L2030.

[Safetyguy]

Looking at the RSI and W%R for the C & S funds -- whenever the RSI has been this high over the last year or so, it stayed up there for at least four trading days. I'm thinking of holding my C and S at least through the end of the week. (Try www.stockcharts.com anduse $SPX (http://www.stockcharts.com anduse $SPX) for the C and $EMW for the S and see for yourself)

The indicators for the I fund aren't as positive BUT they are still pretty good (try EFA on stockcharts.com). And the dollar looks like it is on the way down (try $USD), which makes the I fund a good hold. I'll probablystay with my I fund allocation for a while too.

Someone asked me why I'm using 45% L2020 in my allocation mix. I'm using it to dampen the ups/downs a bit (since it is supposed to reallocate to the target allocation mix each night). It is something I'm playing with and I don't know how it will play out.

[Show-me]

Look's like we're watching the same things on the same site. Good luck to you!

[Pill]

Congrats on your returns so far this year!

Keep it up!