Retail Sales Outlook

Wish I was in the G fund :(. Oh yeah, I am ;). No recession here...no inflation in the works and all is well.

Put the rosy color glasses on my lab rat.

Morpheus






Retail Sales

The Commerce Department's report tomorrow on retail sales will show a second monthly decline in automobile purchases. Vehicles sold in November at a 16.4 million annual rate, the slowest since June, after October's 17 million pace, industry figures show.

General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, is cutting production in the first quarter by 7.1 percent, while Ford Motor Co. will reduce North American output by 7.7 percent. Vehicle production at General Motors has declined 5.1 percent to 4.68 million vehicles through the first week of December from a year earlier, according to Automotive News, a trade publication. Ford's North American output fell 7.6 percent to 3.28 million.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales are forecast to increase 0.1 percent in November, less than the 0.9 percent rise a month earlier. Receipts at filling stations last month were probably lower, reflecting a drop in gasoline prices. A gallon cost $1.99 at the end of the month, compared with $2.08 at the start, according to figures from the Energy Department.

Clothing sales, which increased 3 percent in October, probably slowed last month, according to economists at Lehman Brothers.

Consumer Prices

Sales at chain stores open at least a year rose 1.7 percent in November from a year earlier, the second-smallest gain in 20 months, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group based in New York. Almost half of 69 chains tracked by the council had declines.

Retailers are responding. J.C. Penney Co. offered discounts of as much as 50 percent on women's dresses a week ago to get shoppers to spend more. Federate Department Stores Inc. and Sears, Roebuck & Co. have also stepped up discounts.

That's keeping a lid on consumer prices. The Labor Department is forecast to report on Dec. 17 a 0.2 percent rise in the consumer price index in November after a 0.6 percent jump. Excluding energy and food, prices probably rose 0.2 percent for a second month.

Forecasts

The U.S. trade deficit widened in October to $53 billion from $51.6 billion a month earlier, a report from the Commerce Department is likely to show. The current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade because it includes investments, probably widened in the third quarter to $171 billion from $166.2 billion.

Housing starts are forecast to decline to 1.98 million at an annual rate in November from 2.027 million a month earlier. Home construction has averaged 1.95 million at an annual rate so far this year.

MarketTimer wrote: Wish I was in the G fund :(. Oh yeah, I am ;). No recession here...no inflation in the works and all is well.

Put the rosy color glasses on my lab rat.

Morpheus






Retail Sales

The Commerce Department's report tomorrow on retail sales will show a second monthly decline in automobile purchases. Vehicles sold in November at a 16.4 million annual rate, the slowest since June, after October's 17 million pace, industry figures show.

General Motors Corp., the world's largest automaker, is cutting production in the first quarter by 7.1 percent, while Ford Motor Co. will reduce North American output by 7.7 percent. Vehicle production at General Motors has declined 5.1 percent to 4.68 million vehicles through the first week of December from a year earlier, according to Automotive News, a trade publication. Ford's North American output fell 7.6 percent to 3.28 million.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales are forecast to increase 0.1 percent in November, less than the 0.9 percent rise a month earlier. Receipts at filling stations last month were probably lower, reflecting a drop in gasoline prices. A gallon cost $1.99 at the end of the month, compared with $2.08 at the start, according to figures from the Energy Department.

Clothing sales, which increased 3 percent in October, probably slowed last month, according to economists at Lehman Brothers.

Consumer Prices

Sales at chain stores open at least a year rose 1.7 percent in November from a year earlier, the second-smallest gain in 20 months, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group based in New York. Almost half of 69 chains tracked by the council had declines.

Retailers are responding. J.C. Penney Co. offered discounts of as much as 50 percent on women's dresses a week ago to get shoppers to spend more. Federate Department Stores Inc. and Sears, Roebuck & Co. have also stepped up discounts.

That's keeping a lid on consumer prices. The Labor Department is forecast to report on Dec. 17 a 0.2 percent rise in the consumer price index in November after a 0.6 percent jump. Excluding energy and food, prices probably rose 0.2 percent for a second month.

Forecasts

The U.S. trade deficit widened in October to $53 billion from $51.6 billion a month earlier, a report from the Commerce Department is likely to show. The current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade because it includes investments, probably widened in the third quarter to $171 billion from $166.2 billion.

Housing starts are forecast to decline to 1.98 million at an annual rate in November from 2.027 million a month earlier. Home construction has averaged 1.95 million at an annual rate so far this year.



Interesting that you never show where you copy your info from, you may want to find another source. ..................

[Rod]

MarketTimer wrote: Wish I was in the G fund :(.
I betcha do!:'

Sorry... couldn't resist.;)

[vectorman]

You can't play unless you keep chips on the table. C,S & I still in an upward long trend, even though I fund had a pull-back.

[Mike]

That pullback darn near hit my first entry point of $14.63. :shock:

I should've smelled a rat when it shot past $15 per share, but as I've stated before, I'm just not that bright and need to learn the hard way. :^

I'm going to make amends for last week's stupid moves that ate away some of my nice gains in the last month... by doing nothing. :D

No problem.

Hey Xmas or Holiday Day or whatever is the PC way to call it now...

.01 increase in retail sales

and .02 increase in business inventorys

11 days prior to Xmas is not a very bullish thing at least to me - I believe that was a reason for people to mark up the market for todays fun.

I went to Walmart at 1pm on Saturday and felt like a VIP...I was all by myself -two weeks prior to Xmas???

I believe Monday was a mark up day and hope people in G fund did not take the carrot and waited for the trade balance report today.

I hope I am wrong...but my instincts are normally pretty good.

:) Have a great day!

Bill



Rod wrote:
MarketTimer wrote: Wish I was in the G fund :(.
I betcha do!:'

Sorry... couldn't resist.;)

[Mike]

You were dead wrong on the retail sales report. You expected a decline (and/or your posted info did,a source for which wasn't included which equals... plagiarism?)and instead they posted gains. More importantly, the previous month's data was revised upward. Instead of admitting that you were totally wrong and accepting responsibility for your negative spin on here, you change the subject and start in on how a Wal-Mart you were allegedly at on Saturday was empty. *roll eyes*

Waste of bandwidth.

[Rod]

MarketTimer wrote: No problem.

Hey Xmas or Holiday Day or whatever is the PC way to call it now...

.01 increase in retail sales

and .02 increase in business inventorys

11 days prior to Xmas is not a very bullish thing at least to me - I believe that was a reason for people to mark up the market for todays fun.

I went to Walmart at 1pm on Saturday and felt like a VIP...I was all by myself -two weeks prior to Xmas???

I believe Monday was a mark up day and hope people in G fund did not take the carrot and waited for the trade balance report today.

I hope I am wrong...but my instincts are normally pretty good.

:) Have a great day!

Bill






You'll catch the gainsanother time, Bill.:^

Mike wrote: You were dead wrong on the retail sales report. You expected a decline (and/or your posted info did,a source for which wasn't included which equals... plagiarism?)and instead they posted gains. More importantly, the previous month's data was revised upward. Instead of admitting that you were totally wrong and accepting responsibility for your negative spin on here, you change the subject and start in on how a Wal-Mart you were allegedly at on Saturday was empty. *roll eyes*

Waste of bandwidth.
:^

MarketTimer wrote:
I went to Walmart at 1pm on Saturday and felt like a VIP...I was all by myself -two weeks prior to Xmas???



Just curious, how many people vacation in Hawaii to shop at Walmart?

And what is a man of your "stature" doing at Walmart anyway? Looking to buy it?

Excuse me gang...we are in the two biggest shoppings months of the year and we are up .01% and business inventories increased .02%??? Beating 0.0% was an interesting (mark up) reaction to me. Hopefully folks did not chase the carrot.

Risk/reward - do you really want to be in stocks in front of the trade balance report?

Good luck today. I will be buying at today's NAVs.

:)

MarketTimer wrote: Excuse me gang...we are in the two biggest shoppings months of the year and we are up .01% and business inventories increased .02%??? Beating 0.0% was an interesting (mark up) reaction to me. Hopefully folks did not chase the carrot.

Risk/reward - do you really want to be in stocks in front of the trade balance report?

Good luck today. I will be buying at today's NAVs.

:)



You say "hopefully folks did not chase the carrot" then you say "I will be buying at today's NAVs"................I don't get you.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/aliens/very_first_smiley.gif

BTW, you didn't kill that lab rat for out thinking you did you? http://www.websmileys.com/sm/animal/tier48.gif

[vectorman]

MarketTimer wrote: Excuse me gang...we are in the two biggest shoppings months of the year and we are up .01% and business inventories increased .02%??? Beating 0.0% was an interesting (mark up) reaction to me. Hopefully folks did not chase the carrot.

Risk/reward - do you really want to be in stocks in front of the trade balance report?

Good luck today. I will be buying at today's NAVs.

:)



Part of the definition of bull market: Rampant speculation dominates the market and price advances are based on hopes and expectations rather than actual results. http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/dow_theory_trends.htm Link courtesy of Spaf.

My Little Fury Suppository,

Today historically the weakest day of December. Risk/reward....you want to get out (say like last Thursday) and get back in on after the NAVs drop.

Lots of hammers today, trade balance, CU, BI and FOMC - the wording on the FOMC meeting can be very harmful.

Big deal is I missed the mark up day yesterday (a flat sales report is not too bullish to me - we came in at .01 and everyone thinks that is great?). The second most important month to retailers came in .01. The target was 0.0!!! Look at the calendar if the sales report is not good now...what is it going to look like moving forward. Hmm...what I am I missing??

We will see at the end of the day where we stand.

Bash me all you want but if the data like the trade report keeps rolling in you could be in for good pain and I will be in for good NAVs.

Hope no one is in the F fund today. Treasury bonds are being given away right now.


Morpheus.

mlk_man wrote:

MarketTimer wrote: Excuse me gang...we are in the two biggest shoppings months of the year and we are up .01% and business inventories increased .02%??? Beating 0.0% was an interesting (mark up) reaction to me. Hopefully folks did not chase the carrot.

Risk/reward - do you really want to be in stocks in front of the trade balance report?

Good luck today. I will be buying at today's NAVs.

:)



You say "hopefully folks did not chase the carrot" then you say "I will be buying at today's NAVs"................I don't get you.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/aliens/very_first_smiley.gif

Yeah, like March 2000? Things bad happy when the investors do not read and take action on the data not the hopes of not missing out on the IRA funding run.

Good luck V-man.



vectorman wrote:
MarketTimer wrote: Excuse me gang...we are in the two biggest shoppings months of the year and we are up .01% and business inventories increased .02%??? Beating 0.0% was an interesting (mark up) reaction to me. Hopefully folks did not chase the carrot.

Risk/reward - do you really want to be in stocks in front of the trade balance report?

Good luck today. I will be buying at today's NAVs.

:)



Part of the definition of bull market: Rampant speculation dominates the market and price advances are based on hopes and expectations rather than actual results. http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/dow_theory_trends.htm Link courtesy of Spaf.

MarketTimer wrote: My Little Fury Suppository,

Today historically the weakest day of December. Risk/reward....you want to get out (say like last Thursday) and get back in on after the NAVs drop.

Lots of hammers today, trade balance, CU, BI and FOMC - the wording on the FOMC meeting can be very harmful.

Big deal is I missed the mark up day yesterday (a flat sales report is not too bullish to me - we came in at .01 and everyone thinks that is great?). The second most important month to retailers came in .01. The target was 0.0!!! Look at the calendar if the sales report is not good now...what is it going to look like moving forward. Hmm...what I am I missing??

We will see at the end of the day where we stand.

Bash me all you want but if the data like the trade report keeps rolling in you could be in for good pain and I will be in for good NAVs.



Morpheus.


Historically yesterday was just as bad as today, soooooooooo? Yes we will see, I bet you retreat to yourhole again...........:^

Kiss my "fury little suppostitory" http://www.websmileys.com/sm/crazy/466.gif

Don't get too excited with that one!!!!!!!!!!!! :P

Yes historically yesterday was a very strong day.

Write this down...the Monday before options expiration are very strong. Friday should be very strong also with options expiration and the QQQQ rebalance...this is why I recommend everyone get in the market today. The I fund will not like the trade balance report tomorrow which is why I advised to wait until tomorrow to fund some in I.

Next year I fund will be the best performing fund.

However the risk reward with the retail sales report could of lead to two down days in a row.

Nice little Icons.

Got any for your rodent species?

Bash all you want but at least I put myself out there and explain what I am doing and why. I am trying to help the board.

:cool:

MarketTimer wrote: Yes historically yesterday was a very strong day.

Write this down...the Monday before options expiration are very strong. Friday should be very strong also with options expiration and the QQQQ rebalance...this is why I recommend everyone get in the market today. The I fund will not like the trade balance report tomorrow which is why I advised to wait until tomorrow to fund some in I.

Next year I fund will be the best performing fund.

However the risk reward with the retail sales report could of lead to two down days in a row.

Nice little Icons.

Got any for your rodent species?

Bash all you want but at least I put myself out there and explain what I am doing and why. I am trying to help the board.

:cool:
Keep helping, I'm sure some could use the reading practice. I'll just keep outperforming you.................:^

MarketTimer wrote: Yes historically yesterday was a very strong day.

Write this down...the Monday before options expiration are very strong. Friday should be very strong also with options expiration and the QQQQ rebalance...this is why I recommend everyone get in the market today. The I fund will not like the trade balance report tomorrow which is why I advised to wait until tomorrow to fund some in I.

Read my lips "you are mentally not right!!!!!!!!!" You say Monday before options expiration are very strong yet you get in today? Are you getting out Thurs. because Fri. is strong? You're conflicted brother............koo, koo, koo, koo...........http://www.websmileys.com/sm/crazy/dude_tweetz.gif

Anyone need a lab rat??

Did not want to be exposed to the retailer report and be exposed to the reports day, especially the FOMC report.

Dr Greenspan was unable to expend his term beyond Jan 06 and this wording will be his first report after that...the trade balance came in hot....he does not like that...we will see at the end of the day. There is I told you so outlook here from the good Doc with the administration to let the dollar fall. Following dollar means the imports coming over will cost more and that will cause inflation. Last time the dollar fall like this was 1987 and the S&P 500 dropped 25% in two days. It took a long time to get back to even after that. Dr Greenspan was the FED Chief then...he does not want to happen againto end his tour because that will be how he is remembered...the guy that let it happen twice on his watch.

Yesterday was a mark up/carrot day. Now the mutual fund people are exposed because
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they are trapped like your relatives...

I explained why I went 100% G last thursday.

I am hoping the sale off is today if it is tomorrow I will still have some in reserve to average down. The hedge fund guys know the cut off is 1200 and you notice the sell offs start around 2pm.

Good luck!:P

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote: Bash all you want but at least I put myself out there and explain what I am doing and why.
We appreciate that.

[grandma]

Excuse me fellows - just what is an NAV ? :% Apparently not a car, right? :h

And where are you getting those emoticoms? I need more than what is Tom is able to provide for us...... :oo I do like the `eyes'tho- I've had a compliment on Them !!! thank you Much !!!

grandma wrote: Excuse me fellows - just what is an NAV ? :% Apparently not a car, right? :h

And where are you getting those emoticoms? I need more than what is Tom is able to provide for us...... :oo I do like the `eyes'tho- I've had a compliment on Them !!! thank you Much !!!


NAV = net asset value

http://www.smileys.ws/

http://www.investionary.com/investment-dictionary.htm

:^

[grandma]

Thank you, mlk_mn!! That Investionary page is somethingelse!!

Net Asset Value makes the comments a bit more readable......!!

As soon as I can figure out the icons, I'll get Really fiesty.... (more threat than promise)

grandma wrote: Thank you, mlk_mn!! That Investionary page is somethingelse!!

Net Asset Value makes the comments a bit more readable......!!

As soon as I can figure out the icons, I'll get Really fiesty.... (more threat than promise)


LOL, you go girl!! http://www.smileys.ws/sm/action/00000039.gif

[Rod]

MarketTimer wrote: Hope no one is in the F fund today. Treasury bonds are being given away right now.



If they were, they gained a penny!:^

That is actually one of my major concerns. Study the effects of an inverted yield curve.

The overnight rate is 2.25 and the 3 month is 2.51, 2 year is 2.9, 3 year 3.5, 10 year 4.12, 30 year 4.76. There will be much pain if the higher yields sell off to move into the shorter maturities. The risk/reward thing...why hold a 30 year at 4.76???? You are taking 30 year risk for a minisule yield gain. If the longer end maturies are not moving up in the face of short term rate hikes that indicates inflation. This happened in 1987...everyone sold off their 10s and 30s and moved to 3 months, 2s and 5s. If the longer term yields do not start moving up that is bearish signal to stocks. A expending economy wants to see the longer term rates move up to pass on inflation via job and wage growth.

Case in put you can buy an I bond right now and get 3.69%!!! What is health is the 30 year is 300-350bases points higher then the overnight rate...that means economic expension moving forward.

Good luck!

Granny,

NAV - no available vet - which is why my lab rat, Suppository, is so screwed up.

:P



grandma wrote:
Excuse me fellows - just what is an NAV ? :% Apparently not a car, right? :h

And where are you getting those emoticoms? I need more than what is Tom is able to provide for us...... :oo I do like the `eyes'tho- I've had a compliment on Them !!! thank you Much !!!

Why don't you just answer the question everyone wants to know.........Do you accept the challenge or not? http://www.websmileys.com/sm/sport/sport29.gif

mlk_man wrote: Why don't you just answer the question everyone wants to know.........Do you accept the challenge or not? http://www.websmileys.com/sm/sport/sport29.gifBak, bak, bak................http://www.websmileys.com/sm/animal/2.gif

[Mike]

He challenged you to a 3 month competition of returns fromthe TSP. Whoever loses can no longer post on this board beyond his account talk page. Based on all the back and forth going on between the two of you, I'd say this is a great way to settle things. It's put up or shut up time. For the sake of the sanity of all of us relatively neutral observers, I hope you PUT UP.

His rules were quite clear as well. You post your moves in your respective account talk pages (as the rest of us have been doing for some time now), OR - if you don't want each otherto copy the other's moves, he suggested thatthe twoof you could send your moves to either FundSurfer or Tom and they could trackthe returns over the period.

Rather than continuing on with the childish name-calling and so forth, I suggest you be a man about this and put your money where your mouth is. Having credibility means subjecting yourself to scrutiny by outside observers. If you want to claim big returns, that's all well and good, but few people will believe any of it unless they can see the moves for themselves and track them.

So, how about it? Are you going to accept his challenge or not?

Well Mike I love you too!

Can not do it. Next week will be travelling to the states then will be on vacation for five weeks to Australia. I will check the market but I do not expect to use my time to come on here.

So I guess I lost and see ya later.

I am sure my lab rat will give great advice.

MT

Tom, just deleting posts does not work. I wouldn't appreciate if you either say something or leave them on here. A lot of people have already seen the crudeness and the one's that just come on, will not understand what's going on.

Thank you

[Rod]

MarketTimer wrote: Well Mike I love you too!

Can not do it. Next week will be travelling to the states then will be on vacation for five weeks to Australia. I will check the market but I do not expect to use my time to come on here.

So I guess I lost and see ya later.

I am sure my lab rat will give great advice.

MT

Well then, it can simply wait until you return. I'm sure Mike will be anxiouslywaiting.;)

[sailor]

I sure appreciate you insights market timer so keep posting if you would. The only thing is that your mind is going so fast its not clear when you are doing what. Could you, please be more exacting when saying what you are going to do and when.

Thanks so much.

[sailor]

I sure appreciate you insights market timer so keep posting if you would. The only thing is that your mind is going so fast its not clear when you are doing what. Could you, please be more exacting when saying what you are going to do and when.

Thanks so much.

[sailor]

mlk_man wrote: Tom, just deleting posts does not work. I wouldn't appreciate if you either say something or leave them on here. A lot of people have already seen the crudeness and the one's that just come on, will not understand what's going on.

Thank you

Mlk_man

I agree this has gotten way more person than is healthy for a friendly exchange of ideas. I am a novice and would apprecaite your comments as well as market timers. Even though the competition is off it would be nice if the mlk_man would post what you are planning to do like Mr. TSP himself. I've heard a lot of critism of market timer but what would be more interesting and useful would be constructive comments on what you are going to do.

We can take it or leave it and you can take credit for your good planning.

How about. You gonna give us beginners a helping hand?

[sailor]

Mlk_man,

Comments have gotten way to personal for a friendly exchange of ideas. I would appreciate both you and market times constructive comments. I've heard a lot of critisism of market timers comments but not much on what you are doing. I'm a newbe so maybe not looking in the right place, but would like to hear your plans from day to day like Mr. TSP himself as to what TSP moves you areplanning to make and when.

We don't need a loser is out compitition to be helpful and interesting do we?

Thanks

[Rod]

sailor wrote: Mlk_man,

Comments have gotten way to personal for a friendly exchange of ideas. I would appreciate both you and market times constructive comments. I've heard a lot of critisism of market timers comments but not much on what you are doing. I'm a newbe so maybe not looking in the right place, but would like to hear your plans from day to day like Mr. TSP himself as to what TSP moves you areplanning to make and when.

We don't need a loser is out compitition to be helpful and interesting do we?

Thanks



mlk_man (Mike)posts his moves on his account thread. Look under "Member Allocations,Transactions and Returns".

God Bless:^

[sailor]

Rod wrote: sailor wrote: Mlk_man,

Comments have gotten way to personal for a friendly exchange of ideas. I would appreciate both you and market times constructive comments. I've heard a lot of critisism of market timers comments but not much on what you are doing. I'm a newbe so maybe not looking in the right place, but would like to hear your plans from day to day like Mr. TSP himself as to what TSP moves you areplanning to make and when.

We don't need a loser is out compitition to be helpful and interesting do we?

Thanks



mlk_man (Mike)posts his moves on his account thread. Look under "Member Allocations,Transactions and Returns".

God Bless:^





Rod,

I don't se a "transactions and Returns" topic under member allocations. Where would I find it?

[Rod]

sailor wrote: Rod,

I don't se a "transactions and Returns" topic under member allocations. Where would I find it?

No no...

Look for "Member Allocations,Transactions and Returns".


Just scroll down the main forum page. You'll see it.

[Rod]

Better yet, click here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/

:^

[WALLST]

I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THIS WEBSITE FOR A LITTLE TIME, BUT SOME PEOPLE NEED TO BUY THE (WSJ), THAT WOULD HELP A TON OF YOU OUT HERE.



OK NOW I THINK THE BULLS WILL LET LOSSE 2005 WE WILL SEE A STRONG GROW IN STOCKS AND SMALL CAPS.UNTILS YOU SEE ALL THE NUMBERS FROM X-MASS DON'T CAST WAY, KEEP THIS IN MIND8 BIL WAS SPENT OK BLACK FRI. OUT OF THAT 4BIL WAS IN CC SALES.

WHERE I SEE THE ISSUE IS IN THE FALLING COST OF THE US DOLLAR,NO ONE CAN TELL WHERE THAT IS GOING AS LONG AS WE HAVE THE WALMART'S OF THE WORLD. THE DOLLAR WILL FALL.

Spammed again!

Read Investor Business Daily. WSJ is jaded.

:P

[lookywhatigot@yahoo.com]

Neither one are any good in my opinion.