Transfer 11/26 for 11/29/04

[tsptalk]

I'm making an interfund transfer this morning going to 25% G, 75% I fund effective Monday.

I sent out two emails this morning. The first was a mistake as I transposed the numbers. The correct allocation is25% G, 75% I fund.

Thanks,
Tom

Hey Tom, hope you had a good holiday. Question, why the loadup the I fund--other then the obvious dollar saga. I am currently 35% I, and have been toying with the idea of loading more in ther I fund.

[puertorico]

Tom do you have december seAson historical ?

I wonder when gonna reflec in the market today
and weekend bargains in store ?.

"Everybody is out in the street doing bargain"...:D

[smedlap]

Plausibly the dollar is going to continue to drop against European and asian currencies, china and other countries are thinking about letting their currency float vice a peg against the dollar and US near term market consolidation with follow onbump up. S Fund is doing just fine against the I, maybe just slightly behind. I am 100% I and have been for some time.

[puertorico]

I'm 100% I fund too becouse the dollar vs euro,I think gonna
stay put unstil dec.3rd...:D

[smedlap]

You should be counting your money Puertorico. Good that you follow the advice of Tom and watch the board so closely. I personally think you are Ok thru mid to late January with an upward trend in C, better S and an even better I. Oil remains too high and when it starts to drop, a positive market tail wind. There may be some opportunities (bumps) in which to improve one's portfolio over the next 30 days and Tom will send up a signal. I study his calls, and make my recommendations. He's a good caller. Market does get hard to play but not right now. Good luck as this has been one fine month so far!

[puertorico]

I just visiting share prices historical tsp.gov
from nov.28 to dec.3rd last year was up :D.
and December look good ,watch out after dec.
3rd and inthe third week them look good. to me.

Thank smedlap for u comment about $$$$$$...:D

[puertorico]

Date




I Fund

Dec 31, 2003




12.90

Dec 30, 2003




12.82

Dec 29, 2003




12.70

Dec 26, 2003




12.63

Dec 24, 2003




12.61

Dec 23, 2003




12.56

Dec 22, 2003




12.51

Dec 19, 2003




12.46

Dec 18, 2003




12.42

Dec 17, 2003




12.35

Dec 16, 2003




12.34

Dec 15, 2003




12.41

Dec 12, 2003




12.30

Dec 11, 2003




12.18

Dec 10, 2003




12.17

Dec 09, 2003




12.28

Dec 08, 2003




12.23

Dec 05, 2003




12.26

Dec 04, 2003




12.27

Dec 03, 2003




12.29

Dec 02, 2003




12.23

Dec 01, 2003




12.15

Nov 28, 2003




11.

[smedlap]

Well Puertorico, think we played this day very well with a .8% gain in I Fund, and think we are best positioned for Monday's market. Expect 3-4% C fund gain by 31 Dec at best w/ S&P at near 1225. But I think the ride will be I and S funds. Will look for Tom's alerts to bumps. Nice weekend, I'm out of here!

[smine]

But it's 14.70 now. Wonder how that computes?!

[puertorico]

My instint tell me that I-FUND will be high which the dollar down
even in a down day for the market,but international pay some profit.

S-FUNDin hishigher from 13.99 to his higher 14.11

I-FUND his higher was 14.74 now 14.70 rightHERE has more room than S.



DOLLAR VS EURO
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=schart&cb=18203958&symbol=FX^EURUS&perio d=1&frequency=0&w=190&h=152&f=135443&ls=11

RED = DOLLAR
BLUE = EURO

HIGH EURO = INTERNATIONAL GAIN "I-FUND" :^GOOD LUCK

[puertorico]

i WAS thinking in get out for Monday but
this season historical is good and people
buying like crazy,dont let me grab the profit "that I supposed to do"

PLus dollar downdont let me to get out from I-fund...:D

[tsptalk]

retire rich wrote: why the loadup the I fund--other then the obvious dollar saga.
I'm tired of fighting the falling dollar. :)

[smedlap]

Market closed at 13:00 today as a short trading day. At1300 time posting, EFA was at 81%, but with closing adjustments - ended up at 58%. C and S funds adjusted down also. Feels good. Agree with Tom, dollar fight is too hard. Dollar is expected to drop to 1.4 to the Euro, maybe higher by 31 Dec and the yen likewise. The Q. is when will it hurt so much that governments step in to buy dollars. Nice weekend, as we have"all" alreadydeclared ourMonday TSP positions!

[Mike]

I'm glad I'm not buying in at this current I fund price. :shock:

$14.85... yikes. We'll have our first $15 per share stock fund very soon... wow.

FWIW, the S fund outperformed the I fund this week, even though the foreign markets were open all five days. Everything I've read to this point shows the Euro shooting past $1.35 to perhaps as high as $1.40 before falling back (either due to natural market correction or else due to governments intervening, since European exports are in serious danger of being priced completely out of the market withthis horrible dollar).

I made nice gains this week, so I'm very happy about it. :)

[smine]

Agreed that buying 75% I at 14.85 seemed pricy. Did it anyhow so fingers crossed:shock:

[tsptalk]

Actually the S fund is beating the I fund for the entire month of November, so far. But I may not have gone 75% I fund if I knew it would be up over 1% today. It looked like the Asian and European markets were down this morning. I thought I was being savvy but my timing may not be great here.

I think there could be some profit taking across the board so it was getting something into the G fund that was my main concern. We'll see how it plays out.

I'd love to see a quick two day pullback early next week and and then have the early December seasonality strength kick in. Wishful thinking.

PR - here is the December chart...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_december.gif
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com (http://www.sentimentrader.com)

[Timer]

$14.85... yikes. We'll have our first $15 per share stock fund very soon... wow.
Remember when the I fund was less than $15? When was that? Late 2004?
Everything is relative :D

[tsptalk]

Think this year's 15% gain in the I fund is high? Take a look at the numbers in the 80's for the international indices. Mind boggling.

The EAFE index (I fund) back in the mid 1980's:

1983 +23.69%
1984 + 7.41%
1985 +56.14%
1986 +69.46%
1987 +24.64%
1988 +28.26%

[Mike]

69% :shock::shock::shock:

If my thrift gained that much in a year, I think I'd soil myself. :D

I'm not going to add or subtract anything from the I-fund between now and the end of the year - I want to take full advantage of the end of the year strength - without exposing myself to high-priced buy-ins.

At the first opportunity, I will be moving that 75% in G back into S... C just isn't worth the trouble anymore (until interest rates go up some more at least).

[puertorico]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smedlap Wrote....You should be counting your money Puertorico:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wao from 14.70 to 14.75:DI can no wait unstil tomorrow to count
money "100% I-fund.But now a little scare :shock:Monday do not take back:?

Maybe Itakehalf out of the table Monday becouse historical season look
to good TO move all to G .:shock:I'm greedy again:?.

Maybe 30-g 30-c 30-s 10-I EFFECTIVE Tuesday.

[Is the law to grap the profit].

Tom Thank for the Chart look good to Me.Tom I like those number too
1985 +56.14%
1986 +69.46%. :D.

[Show-me]

tsptalk wrote: I think there could be some profit taking across the board so it was getting something into the G fund that was my main concern. We'll see how it plays out.

I'd love to see a quick two day pullback early next week and and then have the early December seasonality strength kick in. Wishful thinking. :!I'm hope'n your right again.:!

[Timer]

tsptalk wrote: Think this year's 15% gain in the I fund is high? Take a look at the numbers in the 80's for the international indices. Mind boggling.
Tom, was the dollar falling during this I fund golden age? Can you imagine?

[tsptalk]

Timer wrote: Tom, was the dollar falling during this I fund golden age? Can you imagine?
Like a rock during those 50 and 60% years. It actually went up in 83 and 84.

For the record, I don't expect this now. We are likely to stay within the 80-100 "normal" range. We are close to the bottom so I doubt we'll see those 1980's returns. My 75% I fund allocation is temporary...

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/dollar20.png
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com (http://www.decisionpoint.com)

[smedlap]

Tom, many excellent posts here but you're driving the boat. I need to argue about December's play. Brings out the best plan from many contributers. I liked your chart. Once again value and an excellent opportunity for argument to bring the best out of all of us which translates into revenue! What is your perspective on the historical S&P decline during primarily the second week of December? I agree that we will enjoy a similar rise following as that which is reflected inyour chart. Plausibly a 3 to 4% gain with the S&P at around 1225 for the year. It's the value to me of the dip or consolidation during that second week? I noted that the FOMC has traditionally met during CY01- Dec 11, CY02: Dec 10, CY03 - Dec 9 and for CY04 - a belated Dec 14. The dip or consolidation appears to have a relationship.Are the big players using this as an opportunity to churn the market for their gain? I think so.Furthermore, the I fund didn't much blink and in fact following 2 days trading was up + 30 on Nov 10, 04. I'm thinking about staying IFund. Contrarian views please!!! Again thanks Tom. Before, we could not ask these questions, challenge or develop an informed strategy!

[crondanet5]

why did you not elect 100% I Fund?

[tsptalk]

smedlap wrote: I need to argue about December's play. Brings out the best plan from many contributers. I liked your chart. Once again value and an excellent opportunity for argument to bring the best out of all of us which translates into revenue! What is your perspective on the historical S&P decline during primarily the second week of December?
smedlap -
When historical or seasonality data is on your side or going against you, it should be treated as breeze in your face or at your back. In other words if the trend is currently up but seasonality is weak, expect a bit more of astruggle. Not much, but it is certainly present.

When we are in an uptrend and seasonailty is at your back, it gives us that much more confidence in the trend.

In early July the seasonality data could not have been better. The market however wanted to stay stuck in its consolidation and unfortunately in early July it was at the top of the trading range. I ended up losing somewhere near 9% in July:shock:. It has really hurt my return thisyear.

So, my thinking is that we are in an uptrend but we are alsodue for a pullback. If the market can stay up through the first week ofDecember, I would suspect the pullback could start during the second week. There has been a lot of money made over the last several weeks and investors will scramble to protect it. That said, we are in a strong bull market so I won't go below 50% stocks because I'd be fighting the trend.

I hope that helps.
Tom

[tsptalk]

crondanet5 wrote: why did you not elect 100% I Fund?
The reason for that interfund transfer was not to get into the I fund, but to get 25% of my money out of stocks for a couple of days.

I went 25% G because I half suspect the market will digest some of those holiday gains. I used the I fund in case the dollar decides to keep falling which would keep the I fund from falling too much if international indices fall. That could certainly backfire.

Read those market comments daily!:D

Last week I said, "I am weighing the possibility for a transfer either on Friday (for Monday) or on Monday (for Tuesday) to lighten up on stocks."

Tom

[smedlap]

Your comments always help and are warmly accepted. I see 3 big events next week which are Tuesday GDP, Wednesday Mfg ISM, and Friday - Employment. All 3 should report most favorable. But 2 weeks later - FOMC with a true rate hike. I agree that there will be a pullback and then a bounce. It's just as hard to make money as to nlosing it. I had many bad summer months also. I feel much better now with recent gains.

Thanks for your lead!

[Rod]

Hey Tom, aren't you glad you accidentally went 75% I???;)

I thought you wererather too bullishat first. But hey, it looks like you will be enjoying some handsome gains today.

Good for you, and for those who followed!:D

God Bless:^

[smedlap]

Rod, you must be one early bird to be posting at 4:21. I had to look twice at the international markets and the US pre-market numbers. Seems like the start of a great day. Agree, glad I'm 100% in stocks.

[Rod]

smedlap wrote: Rod, you must be one early bird to be posting at 4:21. I had to look twice at the international markets and the US pre-market numbers. Seems like the start of a great day. Agree, glad I'm 100% in stocks.
Early bird gets the worm right???;)

Well... not exactly in my case.:D

Will give it a go tomorrow, though.:^

[Mike]

All of the foreign markets are up somewhere in the 0.5 - 1.4% range.

I still think we get a better bang for our buck in the S fund, and that's where my next major move will go (although I am going to leave 1/4 in I to cover my butt with the weak dollar).