SIRI

[Rolo]

mlk_man wrote: Rolo wrote: Here's what I'm talking about. Should I wait or is now "better late than never"?
Today may be your chance Rolo...............
Roger that...the large upper shadow told me that the following day will be lower.

A 75% run-up in 12 days also says a correction is due.

I started thinking that a round base is next (a cup/bowl), butthe January effect has me expecting a large W with the bottom around $4.75, +-$0.25, and the top ~$6. The mini-pullback on 11-18 has me thinking this, seeing that price range as the new support line and $6 as the new resistance line.

So, my plan is to watch for a trading range of $4.50-$5 and buy then. I may contemplate buying double of what I need and short-term trading the excess at $6, let it fall, then buy more shares with the profit.

I thought about doing this last year, I had the prices in mind ($3/$4)and everything and just chickened out. I could have had1/4 more shares for free! Lesson: better to try and fail than to not try at all.

[Rolo]

Wow....not much of a pullback today...I wonder if $6 is going to be the new support line.

[tsptalk]

Rolo -
This "buy - sell - trade" forum is actually supposed to be used as a classified ad type forum. I guess I should pick a better name. :)

I'll move this over to investment portfoios.

[Rolo]

My bad....I didn't RTFM, heh.

No, you cannot have my PT! :D

[S280]

I have also been watching siri. I wished I would have jumped in at about 3$ this last time.

I am like you I think this will come back down and then shoot up.

I have also been looking at idnx (identix).

Steve

[Rolo]

Hey! S280 (where's that from, anyway? A car or a shelterare my guesses.)

Canya start a thread on IDNX? Combine our research.

I will double my position in SIRI, it's just a question of when. I'm keeping an eye out for a pullback. If SIRI doesn't really pull back, I wonder if late January it will pull back below what it is now.

I should probably look for a buy point to double my position in XMSR too, but I am wondering about overvaluation (ya, sounds funny, but don't wanna miss the momentum, but I don't wanna bubble either).

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote: I will double my position in SIRI, it's just a question of when. I'm keeping an eye out for a pullback. If SIRI doesn't really pull back, I wonder if late January it will pull back below what it is now.
SIRI didfill the gap the other day @ 6.00 and that acted as support. I would say that is a great place to put in a stop (just below $6) if you bought more now. (disclosure: I did buy some @ 6.28Friday am).

Friday was an inside day, meaning the high was lower than the prior day's, and the low was higher than the prior day's. That isn't always a great sign when the day prior was a down day. If it stays above 6.50 Monday, I'll stay inand keep a stop near my purchase price. But if it goes below$6, expect more pullback.

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote: But if it goes below$6, expect more pullback.
That it what I was thinking, too, now...that if the bottom falls out of it, its really gonna fall.

oooOOOOOoooooh! I see what you mean about closing the gaps now! I have seen those before...it never clicked.

So you think SIRI will keep most of that 75% run-up?

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote: So you think SIRI will keep most of that 75% run-up?

I don't know anything about the company from a fundamental standpoint so I don't know if this run up is justified. Technically, if it falls below $6, there is another small gap just below $5 :shock::)

[S280]

s280 or S280 ( it was my old call sign and I always liked it better than the one I have now)

As far as research, Identix is a Biometrics firm and from what I understand one of the leaders. I have not invested anything in it yet, just watching and researching.

I have been talking to people who actually understand buisness models (I know nothing, after all I am just a G-man, and a realtivly young one at that) but there has not been a biometric company yet that has had a good working business model after they went public. I think this one or an up and comer CrossMatch Tech.(not publicly traded yet) will be the ones. I also only buy stock in what I know, exmp. Dell, Home Depot, Xm radio, sirius. These are things and places I buy from.

By the way, I am new to all of this. I am reading this board, reading on my own (Bogle, I think is the guys name) and talking to people. I always thought TSP would be plenty to retire on but after talking to some old timers who just went to retirement seminars, all they could say was invest on your own as well.

[tsptalk]

Amazing, another gap up open for SIRI. It is up to 8.70. I was happy with my gain when I sold at 7.16 :shock:. Still have it Rolo?

[zarth]

tsptalk wrote: Amazing, another gap up open for SIRI. It is up to 8.70. I was happy with my gain when I sold at 7.16 :shock:. Still have it Rolo?
Dare I ask (for fear of sounding dumb -- which isn't far from the truth in this subject) What do you guys mean by a "gap"? :%

[tsptalk]

zarth wrote: What do you guys mean by a "gap"?

It's a technical analysis term for when a stock (or anything that trades on a market) opens higher than any point reached the prior day, and it maintains that open area.

For example SIRI's low and highyesterday was 7.65 - 8.13 and today it's lowand high was 8.50 - 9.43. That makes agap from 8.13 to 8.50. These gaps tend to get filled in the days or weeks ahead.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/siri1.gif

If it happens in this case, you may see SIRI come back down to 8.13 at some point in the near future. It closed today at 9.01. It doesn't always happen, but I'd say the large majority of the time.

Hope that makes sense.

[Rod]

Great explanation, Tom!

BTW, for those of you invested in either SIRI or XMSR... who do you go through to buy & sell?

Currently, I am with equiserve.com, but they do not yet offer SIRI. I'd like to buy into both of these.

Also, what is the resistance point for both of these?

Thanx!:^

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote: If it happens in this case, you may see SIRI come back down to 8.13 at some point in the near future. It closed today at 9.01. It doesn't always happen, but I'd say the large majority of the time.

That didn't take long. SIRI is down below $7 at the open this morning. :shock:

[tsptalk]

Rod wrote: BTW, for those of you invested in either SIRI or XMSR... who do you go through to buy & sell?
I use Ameritrade.

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote: Rod wrote: BTW, for those of you invested in either SIRI or XMSR... who do you go through to buy & sell?
I use Ameritrade.
Thanx Tom. What are the pros and cons?

[tsptalk]

Rod wrote: tsptalk wrote: I use Ameritrade.
Thanx Tom. What are the pros and cons?

At 10.99 a trade, they may bea little on the higher end of the discount brokers, but in my experience their service is spectacular.

[lovegardening]

I went through sharebuilder.com

Hope I made the right move. Seems like SIRI is spreading its wings.......my problem is I wont know when to sell.....

[Rod]

lovegardening wrote: I went through sharebuilder.com

Hope I made the right move. Seems like SIRI is spreading its wings.......my problem is I wont know when to sell.....



Thanx fellow Hoosier!

[Rolo]

Sorry guys...been house hunting...

I use Scottrade, $7 market trades, $12 stop/limit trades, excellent customer service. In fact, I need to visit the branch office here to update my info (I moved).

Yes, I still have SIRI and XMSR; they are long-term investments (yes, I know, sacrelige! hehe). They are the "Wow...I wish I invested in when it was $2/share!" stocks.

The ongoing question I have is: [i]When is the best time to add to my position?

I have 100 shares of XMSR and would like 400, timetable undecided. Methinks after the January effect soonest.

Likewise, the January effect should hit SIRI pretty hard and a sell/buyback play would get you more shares. One could have gained 25-33% more shares last January that way.

I have 900 shares of SIRI and want 2000 within six months and before it hits $10/share. I think now is a good time to add some more and the only reason I haven't this week is that I am visiting the interior decorator today and may need cash to put stuff in the house! heh

Think SIRI is forming a flag?

[tsptalk]

Rolo wrote: Think SIRI is forming a flag?

Do you have a stop, or do plan to hold long term? I would be thinking a stop just below the low on Dec 8th's big drop ($6.58) might be good. I don't own it right now. I couldn't believe how much it went up after I sold at 7.16 (went to 9.43). But it's almost back there again.

[Rolo]

I don't do stop loss orders...the dips will trigger it and bounce right back up (shakeout); instead, I do alerts.

SIRI is a long-term hold. I may play with it as far as trading in & out. I did that with XMSR and WBSN and it saved me from a lot of lengthy horizontal periods.

I just increased my SIRI position by 1/3; I bought 300 more shares. I still need to keep some funds available for this house or I would have purchased more (gotta have cool appliances).

[Rolo]

I don't do stop loss orders...the dips will trigger it and bounce right back up (shakeout); instead, I do alerts.

SIRI is a long-term hold. I may play with it as far as trading in & out. I did that with XMSR and WBSN and it saved me from a lot of lengthy horizontal periods.

I just increased my SIRI position by 1/3; I bought 300 more shares at $7.32. I still need to keep some funds available for this house or I would have purchased more (gotta have cool appliances).

[Rolo]

I don't do stop loss orders...the dips will trigger it and bounce right back up (shakeout); instead, I do alerts.

SIRI is a long-term hold. I may play with it as far as trading in & out. I did that with XMSR and WBSN and it saved me from a lot of lengthy horizontal periods.

I just increased my SIRI position by 1/3; I bought 300 more shares at $7.32. I still need to keep some funds available for this house or I would have purchased more (gotta have cool appliances).

Sirius, XM in merger talks?
Newspaper says the satellite radio providers are eyeing antitrust concerns that could block a deal.
January 26, 2005: 7:44 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio are holding
preliminary talks on a possible merger, according to a published report.

The New York Post said the discussions between the two players in the growing satellite radio market are in early stages.

Executives have not yet discussed price, according to the newspaper. But discussions have been held about potential antitrust concerns, the Post reported.

A deal would create a monopoly in the segment. But the newspaper said that XM (Research) and Sirius (Research) are hoping a deal would be allowed if the Federal Communications Commission considers satellite radio as part of the broader industry delivering music and other content through mobile devices, such as cell phones.

Sirius has a market capitalization of $7.9 billion, compared to XM's market cap of $6.9 billion, despite the greater revenue. XM had forecast sales of $80 million last year, according to First Call, compared with an estimated $70 million for Sirius. Sirius is set to report results Wednesday.

Both providers have exclusive content to provide their customers. Sirius made news late last year giving controversial radio host Howard Stern a $500 million contract to move to its service in 2006. The Post reports that Merrill Lynch analyst Laraine Mancini said one of the chief risks of investing in the companies' shares is a potential price war and "irrational bidding" for content.

The newspaper said that a possible merger got a lift from Sirius (Research)' decision to hire former Viacom (Research) President Mel Karmazin as CEO in November.

"Mel is a roll-up guy, a deal guy," said one source close to Karmazin.

The Post said Sirius would not comment on the report and XM did not return a call seeking comment.

[Rod]

I've been tracking both of these stocks since Dec 7 for a possible buy-in opportunity:

Dec 7-

SIRI: $9.01

XMSR: $38.41



Jan 25-

SIRI: $6.21

XMSR: $32.50



If you were to invest in one, which would it be?

What effect would a merger have?

God Bless:^

I wouldn't invest in either right now. Both have pluses and minuses. XMSR is more cheaply valued. SIRI has Mel Karmazin, who is a master builder of companies. IDK the effect a merger would have on each individual company. It woulddepend on the specifics of the deal. (Mel has since denied that a merger is coming) Clearly, if they did merge, there would be significant cost savings.

[Rolo]

Oops...I thought I updated this: I sold all of my shares in SIRI earlier this month. 1) The stock had an orgasmic run-up which, yes, will lead to a refractory period, heh heh; 2) I wanted to wait until TY05 to take my 190% profit; 3) Since brokers hold the stock certificates, I cannot use them to cover my windows, so I have to buy blinds. 4) I didn't know blinds can cost so much. Ten freakin' grand on freakin' blinds. wOw.

Which: SIRI or XMSR? Well, think like a girl and use the above analogy. XMSR may be forming a nice W. Wait for a handle/confirmation to mitigate risk at the expense of a little upswing. I definitely wouldn't buy SIRI right now. I will buy some later at/near next bottom and after my neighbours can't see me.

Tom, you'll be able to pick up SIRI at 4 in the near future. *grin*

Martha, make the beds. Company's comin!

Sirius Stock Shock Over Howard Stern Deal
February 19, 2005

An insider trading probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission has been started to see whether or not someone knew Howard Stern's deal with Sirius Satellite Radio was coming. The New York Post confirmed the probe with frequent Stern guest and New York gossip journalist Chaunce Hayden, who has been served with a subpoena regarding "trading in securities of Sirius Satellite Radio." Hayden is scheduled to appear before the SEC on Wednesday (2/23) to discuss what he heard in Stern's studios at WXRK (K-Rock)/New York in the days prior to the deal being announced.

The Post reports that the SEC wants to "determine if someone who knew the deal was coming started buying up stock in anticipation of shares skyrocketing when the news got out." Last October, Sirius stock jumped almost 40% in the two weeks prior to the Stern-Sirius announcement and another 15% after the deal was made public.

"We have no reason to believe this matter involves Sirius or any actions of its officers, directors or employees, and neither Sirius nor any of its officers, directors or employees have received a subpoena in this matter," a Sirius spokesman told the Post.

When Stern made the announcement, on air reactions by the other members of his proogram, including long time producer Gary Dell'Abate and sidekick Robin Quivers, were of shock and surprise. For his part, in the days after the deal was announced, Stern said many times during his syndicated morning program that he had kept the deal quiet from his co-workers, friends, family and even his girlfriend Beth Ostrosky to avoid any problems with the SEC.

[Rolo]

heh heh true! I need to buy back my position in it...it is still going down from that orgasmic run-up. I'll buy during the cuddle and $4-$4.50 seems about right atm.

[Rod]

For those interested, I've been tracking both SIRI & XMSR ever since Rolo turned me onto them.

Closing price on 7 Dec 04:

SIRI: $9.01 (35% loss- Currently $5.87)

XMSR: $38.41 (15% loss- Currently $32.74)

Please pardon my math if my numbers do not add up.:)

God Bless:^

[Rod]

Furthermore, SIRI has not been higher than $9.01 since 7 Dec 04. In fact, the very next day on 8 Dec it traded at $6.87.

OTOH, XMSRmade itshigh (since 7 Dec)of $40.48 on 21 Dec.

Once again, I have all the numbers since 7 Dec if anyone is interested.

God Bless:^