F Fund for December 2008

[McDuck]

Today, the F-fund went up 5 cents or 0.41%.

While, TLT was up 3.83% and AGG was up 1.42%.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/misc/progress.gif

[McDuck]

During November 08, the F-fund went up 3.30% and AGG went up 3.45%.

[350zCommTech]

Today, the F-fund went up 5 cents or 0.41%.

While, TLT was up 3.83% and AGG was up 1.42%.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/misc/progress.gif

F funders got screwed. IT should have been up 13 cents today.

[McDuck]

Today, the F-fund went up 0.26%.

[McDuck]

Month-to-Date 09-DEC-08

G-fund +0.07%
F-fund +1.35%
C-fund -0.80%
S-fund -1.39%
I-fund +0.24%

[McDuck]

F-fund up 0.23% today.

Fund % Chg mon -
G Fund +0.09%
F Fund +1.78%
C Fund -2.45%
S Fund -3.94%
I Fund +2.47%

[JTH]

We are getting on the high end of the trading range, perhaps we can break past 12.3691 into uncharted territory?

[jon]

100 F, but about to go 50F, 50G at these levels.
Any opinions?

[JTH]

100 F, but about to go 50F, 50G at these levels.
Any opinions?

Your guess is as good as anyone else's. Since the F-Fund is at a YTD high of 12.3755 it's hard for me to imagine it going much higher. I've made some decent money from the F-Fund and transfered those gains back to the G-Fund.

There's certianly nothing wrong with taking some gains off the table, best of luck to you ;)

[jon]

Thanks JTH. I'll probably go 100 g Wed. Congrats on making some in F.

Considering deflation prospects, I'm thinking about going back into a small position of silver coins. We don't have any forums discussing precious metals, do we?

[JTH]

We don't have any forums discussing precious metals, do we?

Good luck with that, physical silver is getting hard to aquire at reasonable prices because everyone is hording and hedging already. Have you seen the prices on EBAY? :(

[jon]

Humm...so the silver flight is gone, well, then I need to figure out how to roll tsp into roth and not pay taxes??

[XL-entLady]

Interesting to watch what happened to bonds after stocks closed so strongly today. :worried: "Beginning of the end" for the F Fund run?

Lady

[JTH]

Interesting to watch what happened to bonds after stocks closed so strongly today. :worried: "Beginning of the end" for the F Fund run?

Lady

I thought that would happen Monday. At 12.5226 this things defying all logic. This should serve as a scary sign for stocks, but hey what do I know?

This market is crazy... :confused:

[McDuck]

Interesting to watch what happened to bonds after stocks closed so strongly today. :worried: "Beginning of the end" for the F Fund run?

Lady

I'm not doubting you. But why do you say this?

These are the F-fund return for the following years:
2007 7.1%
2002 10.3%
2000 11.7%
1998 8.7%
1997 9.60
1995 18.31
1993 9.52
1991 15.75
1989 13.89

[XL-entLady]

Interesting to watch what happened to bonds after stocks closed so strongly today. :worried: "Beginning of the end" for the F Fund run?

Lady

I'm not doubting you. But why do you say this?

These are the F-fund return for the following years:
2007 7.1%
2002 10.3%
2000 11.7%
1998 8.7%
1997 9.60
I just noticed that bonds looked like they were tanking right at COB today after being up strongly all day, that's all. But F Fund gained another eight cents today apparently. :confused:

I keep thinking that stocks and bonds can't both run strong so one group or the other has got to go down one of these days. I've got one foot out the door. (Or I would have, except that it will take 12 hours to process my request after I make it. So to be more accurate, I am meandering to the door, which is down the corridor and take a left, then down the fire escape. :rolleyes: :laugh:)

Lady

[JTH]

It would appear the F-Fund is going to outperform all other funds this year.

The last time this happened, it happened for 3 years in a row.

From 2000-2002 the combined returns were.

G-Fund 16.81%
F-Fund 30.55%
C-Fund -43.13%
S-Fund -42.95%
I-Fund -52.09%

I wonder if any of you think this trend will happen again? It might serve as a good investment strategy for those who don't wish to move their funds around, constantly chasing their tail.

[XL-entLady]

It would appear the F-Fund is going to outperform all other funds this year.

The last time this happened, it happened for 3 years in a row.

...
I wonder if any of you think this trend will happen again? It might serve as a good investment strategy for those who don't wish to move their funds around, constantly chasing their tail.
Ira's last midday video said that bonds are still a good bet. I'm about 10% F Fund now and would be more if I wasn't locked out until January. It looks good for present. However, I would not be comfortable with shoving all my TSP account in F and walking away for months at a time, if that's what you're asking. I'm not sure that would be a responsible thing to do with ANY fund in this environment.

But you can put a dollar with that opinion and still not have enough for Starbucks. :laugh:

Lady

[JTH]

It looks good for present. However, I would not be comfortable with shoving all my TSP account in F and walking away for months at a time, if that's what you're asking.

I agree with you completely. As for myself, I may try to follow the F-Fund's dips and peaks next year. Of course this was somewhat easier to do up until this month's breakout. Right now the recent historical data is charting new territory, so it would be harder for me to find entry and exit points. :suspicious:

Edit to add: I really need to get smarter on following Bonds and tracking their correlation to the F-Fund.

[McDuck]

I wonder if any of you think this trend will happen again? It might serve as a good investment strategy for those who don't wish to move their funds around, constantly chasing their tail.

I don't understand the bond fund that the F-fund is tied to.

I would think (dangerous) that it could not repeat the 2000-2002 period. Because value is inverse to the bonds interest rate. In 2000-2002 bond rates had plenty of space to come down. Now they don't have that much room to go down.

But the bonds that F-fund are tied to may be still high. I think the F-fund is still good as long as it goes up.

I would like to hear other people thoughts.

[budnipper1]

It would appear the F-Fund is going to outperform all other funds this year.
The last time this happened, it happened for 3 years in a row.
From 2000-2002 the combined returns were.

G-Fund 16.81%
F-Fund 30.55%
C-Fund -43.13%
S-Fund -42.95%
I-Fund -52.09%

I wonder if any of you think this trend will happen again? It might serve as a good investment strategy for those who don't wish to move their funds around, constantly chasing their tail.
First, don't think that I am questioning your figures. It looks like your math is correct. I just don't believe that a logical conclusion can be found by your observations. Of course, during the same 3-yr time period the performance of the 3 stock funds was the worst in the past 10 years. The old concept that history usually repeats itself probably will not apply to random trends in the markets. If it did, we'd all be richer. What I can conclude from the average returns shown on this 10-year chart is that I would gladly go back to 1998, if I could, and stay 100% invested in the F-fund, to date. Showing a negative return in only one year, considering compounding and those 3 bad years of losses in the stock funds, the F fund ruled with minimum risk. Wish I had a time machine.:)

5262

[JTH]

I'm surprised there hasn't been any talk about the F-Fund lately?

The F-Fund share price has gone down the last three trading days, while AGG's share price has gone up the last three days. :suspicious:

[McDuck]

The F-Fund share price has gone down the last three trading days

Yes, but for a total of 2.5 cents.

[Skip]

I'm surprised there hasn't been any talk about the F-Fund lately?

The F-Fund share price has gone down the last three trading days, while AGG's share price has gone up the last three days. :suspicious:

I was noticing that also... how was the agg going up and the fund price down...
Whats up ?
12/15 f = 12.37 agg = 100.73
12/23 f = 12.54 agg = 103.53
12/24 f = 12.54 agg = 104.02
That should be a 3% plus gain"check math"

I just checked the f fund price on tsp and found out its tracking the TLT
thats the Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
Have they switched the tracking on us ? Just as agg is ralling ?
the tlt on 11-19 was at 99.30
12/24 it closed at 120.90 thats a super gain, but in my opion its ready for a drop...
Looking into this more...
Skip

[McDuck]

Today, the F-fund went up 2.2 cents (0.15%).
This is back to where it was on Dec 18th.

--------------------------------------------------------
This a graph of TLT and AGG for the last 5 business day (since the close of the 18th).

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a242/elvis256/TSP_Daily_Charts/081226F.gif

[McDuck]

Edit to add: I really need to get smarter on following Bonds and tracking their correlation to the F-Fund.

Yeah, I don't understand where they get the F-fund share price.

[McDuck]

I was noticing that also... how was the agg going up and the fund price down...
Whats up ?
12/15 f = 12.37 agg = 100.73
12/23 f = 12.54 agg = 103.53
12/24 f = 12.54 agg = 104.02
That should be a 3% plus gain"check math"

I just checked the f fund price on tsp and found out its tracking the TLT
thats the Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
Have they switched the tracking on us ? Just as agg is ralling ?
the tlt on 11-19 was at 99.30
12/24 it closed at 120.90 thats a super gain, but in my opion its ready for a drop...
Looking into this more...
Skip

Skip, Let us know if you find out something.

[nnuut]

TLT down, AGG up!:D Or visa versa!:cool: Sometimes?

[McDuck]

This is info about the F-fund from tsp.gov

Key Features


The F Fund offers the opportunity to earn rates of return that exceed those of money market funds over the long term (particularly during periods of declining interest rates), with relatively low risk.
The objective of the F Fund is to match the performance of the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) Index, a broad index representing the U.S. bond market.
The risk of nonpayment of interest or principal (credit risk) is relatively low because the fund includes only investment-grade securities and is broadly diversified. However, the F Fund has market risk (the risk thatthe value of the underlying securities will decline) and prepayment risk(the risk that the security will be repaid before it matures).
Earnings consist of interest income on the securities and gains (or losses) in the value of securities.

F Fund Facts

By law, the F Fund must be invested in fixed-income securities. The federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board has chosen to invest the F Fund in an index fund that tracks the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) Index, a broadly diversified index of the U.S. bond market.

The LBA Index consists of high quality fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year. The index is comprised of Treasury and Agency bonds, asset-backed securities, and corporate and non-corporate bonds. On December 31,2007, the LBA Index included 9,133 notes and bonds. The average LBA Index current yield was 5.33%, which means that, on an annual basis, interest income equalled approximately 5.33% of the return of the LBA Index. The average duration (a measure of interest rate risk) of the LBA Index was 4.5 years, which means that a 1% increase (decrease) in interest rates could be expected to result in a 4.5% decrease (increase) in the price of a security. New issues are added continuously to the LBA Index, and older issues drop out as they move to within one year of maturity.

Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund — The F Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund. Because the LBA Index contains such a large number of securities, it is not feasible for the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund to invest in each security in the index :confused:. Instead, Barclays selects a large representative sample of the various types of mortgage-backed, U.S. Government, corporate, and foreign government securities included in the overall index. Within each sector, Barclays selects securities that, as a whole, are designed to match important index characteristics such as duration, yield, and credit rating. The performance of the U.S. Debt Index Fund is evaluated on the basis of how closely its returns match those of the LBA Index.

:confused: The F Fund invests in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund by purchasing shares of the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund “E,” which, in turn, holds shares of the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Master Fund. As of December 31, 2007, F Fund holdings constituted $12.3 billion of the U.S. Debt Index Master Fund, which itself held $28.2 billion in securities. :confused:

[McDuck]

The F-fund went up 2.1 cents today; that's 0.17%.

-------------------------------------------------------

AGG vs TLT today :confused::suspicious::notrust:
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a242/elvis256/TSP_Daily_Charts/z-1.png

[McDuck]

I wonder what the F-fund will pay today :confused:

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a242/elvis256/TSP_Daily_Charts/081230_f.png

[Gumby]

I wonder what the F-fund will pay today :confused:

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a242/elvis256/TSP_Daily_Charts/081230_f.png

The TSPlookup says about 0.0128

[McDuck]

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a242/elvis256/TSP_Daily_Charts/081230_f.png

Gumby, Thanks for the info. TSPLookup that is the excel file that get's its input data off the web automatically, right?

F-fund was up 2.33 cents or 0.1850% today.

[McDuck]

F-fund share price today: $ 12.5807. Down 3.500 cents :(

Almost back down to where it was on DEC 18th.

I think maybe the F-fund has petered out.

[Skip]

I just would like to know which fund they are going to use !!! It seems like they pick and choose which one to their advanage .......
The tlt was down 12/31 2.09% the agg was up a little.. .07
yet we show a loss in the fund of .28 % ?
We need to get a answer from TSP on this... I think we are getting screwed...
Also just a thought... When we all put our TSP transfers in at 12:00 Who get to see those orders ?
They could trade the market knowing that at 3:30 or so our orders will start being filled..
I know I would like to know... Lets say 100 , 200 or so of tsptalk traders were going to go 100% xyz fund today at close.. 25 million order or more...That's enough to move the market a little I would think... Might be we were messing up the big traders plans to scap at the close, and that's the real reason our trades are limited now...
Just mho
Skip

[McDuck]

I just would like to know which fund they are going to use !!! It seems like they pick and choose which one to their advanage .......
The tlt was down 12/31 2.09% the agg was up a little.. .07
yet we show a loss in the fund of .28 % ?
We need to get a answer from TSP on this... I think we are getting screwed...
Also just a thought... When we all put our TSP transfers in at 12:00 Who get to see those orders ?
They could trade the market knowing that at 3:30 or so our orders will start being filled..
I know I would like to know... Lets say 100 , 200 or so of tsptalk traders were going to go 100% xyz fund today at close.. 25 million order or more...That's enough to move the market a little I would think... Might be we were messing up the big traders plans to scap at the close, and that's the real reason our trades are limited now...
Just mho
Skip

I agree with you Skip.

That is why I created this thread - to see if the F-fund made sense during the month that I planned to be in it. It hardly seemed to have any rhyme or reason.

[TerpTrader]

Good luck with that, physical silver is getting hard to aquire at reasonable prices because everyone is hording and hedging already. Have you seen the prices on EBAY? :(

The absolute best prices I've seen for pure silver bullion rounds and bars are at www.nwtmintbullion.com .

Shipping is also FREE for purchases of 50 oz. or more, I believe.

I've bought a bunch there, though their shipping is very delayed, so if buying, be PATIENT. :suspicious:

[Skip]

Ok lets see what the f fund is doing today...
tlt is down 2.58%
agg is up 1.59%
BIG DIFFERENCE
If we have a dispute lets all call tsp...
Skip

[justbizness45]

:confused: The F Fund invests in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund by purchasing shares of the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund “E,” which, in turn, holds shares of the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Master Fund. As of December 31, 2007, F Fund holdings constituted $12.3 billion of the U.S. Debt Index Master Fund, which itself held $28.2 billion in securities. :confused:

OK, now I have some F Fund alarm bells going off. This is the breakdown on Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund

http://www6.ingretirementplans.com/custom/540.pdf

The Fund is NOT FDIC insured, is NOT an obligation or deposit of, or guaranteed by Barclays Global Investors or its affiliates, and involves investment risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in this trust is neither insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. While the trust's investment objective includes the preservation of capital, it is possible to lose money by investing in the trust.

The Fund will not use defensive strategies, such as temporarily moving assets to cash or purchasing other
financial instruments, to protect against potential market declines. Instead, the Fund will remain fully invested in debt securities.

Asset Allocation
Treasury 22.4
Agencies 9.3
Finance 8.6
Industrial 9.3
Utility 2.0
Non-US Corp 3.6
Taxable Muni 0.2
ABS 0.8
Mortgages 38.8
CMBS 5.0

I wonder how long they can hold those mortgage securities before accepting the loss?