Transfer 11/12 for 11/15/04

[tsptalk]

Assuming the S&P 500 doesn't drop below 1163 this morning, I will initiate an interfund transfer before Friday's deadline going 25% G, 75% S fund effective Monday.

My plan to go 50/50 changed as the strength the market is showing is more than even I expected, and you know how bullish I am. I will use a drop below 1163 in the short term as a sign that the pullback has started.

[Dakota]

tsptalk wrote: Assuming the S&P 500 doesn't drop below 1163 this morning, I will initiate an interfund transfer before Friday's deadline going 25% G, 75% S fund effective Monday.

My plan to go 50/50 changed as the strength the market is showing is more than even I expected, and you know how bullish I am. I will use a drop below 1163 in the short term as a sign that the pullback has started.hey, TA is this conservitivly agressive, or agressively conservitive. anyhow when you talk 1163- 1140 on S&P, my hard boiled brain doesn't register> ihope this isn't stupid!!!! where do you find these nimbers

[tsptalk]

Dakota wrote: when you talk 1163- 1140 on S&P, my hard boiled brain doesn't register>
I'm using thosered trendlines of support / resistance areas on the S&P 500 chart in the market comments? www.tsptalk.com/comments.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html)

[vectorman]

Hi Tom, Are you still expecting a possilbe pullback toward the front of next week as you mentioned before?I was thinking about pulling more money in too, but I didn't want to get caught at the upper end of a correction. Do you still think any correction will be short, then off to the races again. Looking back at past charts, during a bull market, its seems the correctios were pretty short. Thanks.:)

[tsptalk]

vectorman wrote: Hi Tom, Are you still expecting a possilbe pullback toward the front of next week as you mentioned before?

Do you still think any correction will be short, then off to the races again.
Yes and yes!

[CheapShot]

Tom do you expect a short pullback and to be fully invested again by midweek.

[puertorico]

So,Tom I thing Im late To jump in -nOw i have to still 100-G:D

[Mike]

Great, a short pull-back - making it even more difficult to time the thing to get back in. :P

Hopefully, it'll last at least 2-3 days, thus giving me a shot at spotting it and reacting to it before the market resumes its march upward. I'll move "all in" (hehe hold'em lingo) on day two of a pullback at the earliest, day three at the latest. I hope it goes back to 1140 so I can make more money. :D

[tsptalk]

CheapShot wrote: Tom do you expect a short pullback and to be fully invested again by midweek.
Sorry, I just saw your email. I usually can't get to the website during the day, except during my lunch hour.

I don't know exactly how long the pullback will be, assuming we get one. I will watch the indicators and the pullback levels and keep you posted in the market comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html).

[Safetyguy]

tsptalk wrote: I don't know exactly how long the pullback will be, assuming we get one. I will watch the indicators and the pullback levels and keep you posted in the market comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html).
I don't think enough people appreciate your insights and comments (as well as the effort to run TSPTALK). Sometimes your commentsare very good (and sometimes they are not), but in every case, they are always interesting.

Keep up the good work!!

[smedlap]

Tom, I'm not moving. I think this market has 5% C fund legs. Even if there is a pullback, I think it limited. I'mstaying 100% S because I think we have another easy 5% gain.But I assess it day by day going by sentiment and market reports, not the wave. They are all good! There is just to much strength and everyone is trying to get in nowsince they stoppedfollowing the election.World situation is also taking a breather and we hpoe that oil continues its decline. What perplexs me is EFA, the I fund tracker. I realize that the dollar has given some leverage but both Germany and Japan GDP are projected toend this yeara whopping embarassing 1%. Another reason why this is a great country. Note at Aarifat's memorial service, everyone was there and theirGDP growth stopped completely! I say further decline in gasoline, reasonable spending this Xmas and IRA/ bonus drops January as driving positive sentiment thru end of Jan. Earlier January 2004 forcast was S&P 1232 and fair value next summer - 1250. We're on the rise. Very much enjoyed your more aggressive message this morning and agree with last poster - your great just for creating this website. Your in the heat of the play now! As to Puertorico- I wrote you in Phoenix, now in New York and I'm moving again. I like your spunk. Follow Tom - don't day trade. Get back in. I also said- don't follow anyone - it's your money and you are solely responsible!Study the market and follow Tom, if you chance!

[smine]

PR: You're usually a risk taker. What's with the 100G? I have done better in the past 10 days then all year!

[tsptalk]

smedlap wrote: Tom, I'm not moving. I think this market has 5% C fund legs. Even if there is a pullback, I think it limited.
That is not a bad way to play it at all. Probably the wisest. I usually don't fair as well when I play games.

[smedlap]

Of course you have. It has been a poor play until this recent run. When you say 100 G, is it $100k or 100% in the G fund? TSP Tom is very careful about advice and following as he should be. I myself am managing 3 accounts and I worry more about the other two more than mine. Here's wahtr I think: the market is going higher and you can get better returns in C, S and strange I then you can from treasuries or the G fund. Ride the positive wave and retreat during declines. I think you are fine until the end of January because of sentiment, account managers trying to recover before year end and investment in IRA and bonuses during January. Selectyour poison - C or S as I have lived in Europe 30 years and know this is the best country, abeit I am intersted in visiting a grand island - Puerto Rico!

[smedlap]

Tom, I'm gone. You're the man I must say.I am humble! My play is my play but you created the site. There are so many following your advice and that pleases me. But they must understand it is their money and they are best to be most informed and singularly responsible.It is always nice to make money.You have created a great website for sharing information. Just remember - you predicted these increases and they have occured! We make our own decisions as to how we play - aggressive, conservative or mixed bag. I say - aggressive or play g fund and don't read! Again, I may completely go G on 1 Feb or earlier depending on how this marketrises. I still don'tundersatnd why I is doing better? Maybe I'm a Nationalist!

Wow, how about them gains...looking good. Tom, funny thing is I changed my interfund position-went to a 70% equity postion ([30%-G], 40%-C, 15%-S, 15%-I) when the indices turned RED. But lo and behold minutes later, indices were green again. I didn't want to buy on the up tick (of course since we are time constriained--close to 12:00), so I had to change back to my original postion--G-50%, S-10%, C-20%, I-20%.

I wanted to take a larger position, but felt I would wait until we get a dip.

But, I am happy for this rally, and hope it continues. Since you have stated you think we will have a pull-back next week...how large? I think Monday may be the day to sweep some of these earning into the G fund, and wait and see if we get the dip, and jump back in.

Although its awfully tough to get out with the way the market is behaving. But I don't want to be one of those who get trapped/sucked in...soooooo will be reading, listening to every bit of info I can this weekend and Monday.



Keep up the great work Tom!

[tsptalk]

Thanks everyone. I have enjoyed this rally and I knew once it came it would be "explosive". Unfortunately we had to wait until August for it to start. About 6 to 10 weeks later than I hoped for so I haven't capitalized as much as I could have so far this year.

The folks who have been with me for a while know how tough it was earlier this year. Remember, I kept calling for 15 to 30%market returns by the year end. So far only the I fund has produced that potential. We will need a big run to meet those numbers.

These types of runs don't come very often so enjoy it while you can, andstay humble. The market can giveth and it can taketh away. That doesn't mean get too conservative now.Just stay focused and flexible.

I don't know if you watch Bloomberg TV, but the last time I looked all the futures's indices were up....hope this stays true throughout the weekend and week. Don't be greedy don't be greedy (must telll my self).

[TheProphet]

I think this rally will last till January 2005
still more to go... I am enjoying it...
:^

[puertorico]

Smine u'll right sometime I'm greedy but this time
I wAs trying to grap the profit AND buy lower.Now
I see everybody in the best run without me:Dit was
my faul not hear when they invited me "Tom" to get IN...:?

Now i have to take the bicycle insted of the bus...:D.

Beautifull call ,enjoy everyone who is in ,ok ... :^

[tsptalk]

retire rich wrote: I don't know if you watch Bloomberg TV, but the last time I looked all the futures's indices were up....hope this stays true throughout the weekend and week. Don't be greedy don't be greedy (must telll my self).
I think the futures close on Friday at 4:00 PM ET. That could just be today's final gains. Was it up big like today's totals?

[TheProphet]

Tom, S&P still going to 1200 Plus... Do ou think it will hit 1300 by the end of January ?

:zz

[tsptalk]

lkatteng wrote: Tom, S&P still going to 1200 Plus... Do ou think it will hit 1300 by the end of January ?

Based on chart theory, a head and shoulders breakout, the "first" target is about 1224. This was actually a reverse head and shoulder which is bullish. After that?? Not sure.

The good news for those who missed the breakout is that H&S breakouts tend to pullback to the breakout point ~ 1144 before resuming.

I wish it were really that easy to call, but I won't hold my breath.

Sorry, I went to bed didn't see your response. But I just checked Bloomberg and the S&P 500 futureis up 9.00 points.



Dow fut is 10.00

Nasdaq is 4.5

[Show-me]

retire rich wrote: Sorry, I went to bed didn't see your response. But I just checked Bloomberg and the S&P 500 futureis up 9.00 points.



Dow fut is 10.00

Nasdaq is 4.5
What does this mean? What are S&P futures? How is this a gauge for the "future" market action?

[tsptalk]

Show-me wrote: What does this mean? What are S&P futures? How is this a gauge for the "future" market action?
In a very basic nutshell, futures are contracts where you "bet" on the direction of the market you hold the future contract on - in this case the S&P 500. I may be confusing them with options but I believe they work in a similar manner. You can buy them or sell them short (bet the market for the item will go down). You can buy contracts on many things like wheat, currencies, pork belliesetc.

A bread company maybuy somecontracts of wheat futures as protection against the price of wheat rising on them.If the price of wheat does go up, it hurts their profits but they would make money on the wheat futures. They cover themselves that way.

Futures trade day and night around the world (I thought they closed Friday evening until Sunday nigh but I could be wrong.) They have a specific target price and an expiration day when the contract must be closed at the market price of the item. So, for example if you had a November 1170 S&P 500 future contract, on the 3rd Friday of November your contract is worth whatever the price of the S&P 500 is over 1170. If it's 1180, your contract is worth $10 per "share". If the S&P 500 is 1160, your contract is worth $0.

When the S&P 500 futures are up or downafter hours, it is a strong indication of the direction the S&P 500 will take once the markets open.

[Show-me]

Excellent! Thanks Tom!

[vectorman]

Tom, what's the best or safest way for those now off the freight train to get back on without hurting there investment to much. Thanks.

[tsptalk]

vectorman wrote: Tom, what's the best or safest way for those now off the freight train to get back on without hurting there investment to much. Thanks.
By off do you mean you are completely out of stocks? In that case I'd say watch how the S&P 500 reacts to those pullback target areas (1163, 1150, 1140). If it can't hold 1163, expect it to go down to 1150 etc. The 1140 area should be some strong support and I would definately get back in at that point..

[Mike]

Based on the continued upward push, we could be waiting awhile.

I was watching some mindless business shows this morning, and the talking heads were commenting on how some stocks are going up in spite of lackluster earnings. This is a stark contrast to the summer when good earnings reports were shrugged off and things continued downward. :shock:

[puertorico]

I'M in,Hope not to late :?:D