Lehman

[Bullitt]

Start playing 'Taps' right now. You are now witnessing a run on Lehman Brothers and there aren't nearly enough lifeboats for everyone.

[Bullitt]

FNM, FRE, WM, LEH, CFC.... Heck, the entire Shadow Banking System. Don't dream, it's over.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZZfuCJ970w

[ATCJeff]

Lehman or Washington Mutual. The Feds will let one of these two companies fail. The question is which one? Could they let both fail?

Glad I'm in the Geee.

[luv2read]

Dont forget about the Big Three Automakers standing in line waiting for their handout...and the airlines will be next. BSC was precedent-setting.

[nnuut]

dont forget about the big three automakers standing in line waiting for their handout...and the airlines will be next. Bsc was precedent-setting.
hhhummp!! Cough cough ==== loans!!:d

[Bullitt]

You're both right. There's not enough government cheese for everyone. The big 3 just kept pumping out those SUV's while Toyota produced the more fuel efficient vehicles.

Which would be worse to let fail, WaMu or LEH? Now that LEH dropped a real estate bomb on us, who knows how much deleveraging they've got on their hands. After the hits BAC took under the CFC deal, and the hits JPM is taking with BSC, buying out LEH and WM would be like buying up land near Chernobyl at this point.

[ATCJeff]

hhhummp!! Cough cough ==== loans!!:d

50 billion just waiting...:(

[Silverbird]

Analysts: I Quit! I Have No Idea What's Happening!
CNBC
Posted By:Bob Pisani (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837548/cid/98208)
Topics:Investment Strategy (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837548/cid/97101) | Stock Market (http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837548/cid/97322)

Analysts, shell-shocked by the events in financials this week, are simply giving up today:

1) Merrill Lynch analyst Guy Moszkowski has changed his rating on Lehman from "neutral" to "no opinion."


2) Morgan Stanley said that while they were maintaining their research coverage on Lehman, they are removing their ratings and price targets "due to heightened market uncertainty."

3) Landeburg Thalman's Dick Bove is suspending his price target and Neutral rating on Washington Mutual "until there is some clarification as to what was in the MOU [Memorandum of Understanding]."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26661632
:confused::worried:

[ATCJeff]

Lehman or Washington Mutual. The Feds will let one of these two companies fail. The question is which one? Could they let both fail?

Glad I'm in the Geee.


Looks like Lehman will be the first. Tomorrow has the potential to be a huge meltdown!

[James48843]

IN a last-chance effort-

Lehman Brothers Investment Bank is up for bids....

On E-Bay....
http://cgi.ebay.com/Lehman-Brothers_W0QQitemZ110289318047QQcmdZViewItem?hash= item110289318047&_trkparms=72%3A1163%7C39%3A1%7C66%3A2%7C65%3A12%7C 240%3A1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14

[tsptalk]

Lehman Bros files for bankruptcy protection!

[clester]

Fed rate cut or some other action today or tomorrow? They've done it in the past.

[James48843]

When you look at Who owns Who, you get the picture of how bad this one is going to get.

So far, we've had Fannie and Freddie go down. Then Lehman Brothers. Now AIG, a major holder of all of those stocks, is now down 65% today.

So who is next? Let's take a look at who is holding a major portion of AIG shares.

Here is a prediction: Watch AXA.

Market cap is showing 60 billion. Widely diversified. that's good.

But it looks like it's lost more than 10% of it's holdings in the last few days.

AXA is only down a bit today, but has been loosing steadily as all the others tumble.

AXA holdings so far in the last three months-- down nearly 7 billion:

AXA Losses By Firm (incomplete list of holdings)

________________Date_shareprice
_______#Shares__6/30/2008__9/12/2008_LOSS/-Profit
AIG__132593871___26.46___12.14__$1,898,744,232.72
FNM__134292348___19.51___0.74___$2,520,667,371.96
LEH__65706019____19.81___3.65___$1,061,809,267.04
FRE__41088126____16.40___0.46___$654,944,728.44
MER__48345162____31.71___17.05__$708,740,074.92
MS___66771586____36.07___37.23__-$77,455,039.76
GS___10168295__ 174.90__154.21__$210,382,023.55

___________________Total_______$6,977,832,658.87

That was as of last friday.

Now we take AIG, from last friday $12.14, to today's price: $5.80

FNH from last friday's 0.75 to today's 0.62

LEH from 3.65 to today's 0.21

FRE from .46 to today's 0.39

MER is the only bright spot- going from $17 to $20 today,

MS from $37.23 to today's $33.76

GS from friday's $154 to today's $142.

Things not looking good for AXA.

Dominos could unwind for companies like AXA, if too many holdings go down.

[tsptalk]

Nice work james

[Frixxxx]

Fed rate cut or some other action today or tomorrow? They've done it in the past.

Maybe they'll pass legislature to "FORCE" banks to loan money....Maybe the BANK OF AMERICA has a few more dollars stashed away to bailout other companies. Hell if they have another 50 billion, they could own Detroit, or at least part of it!:cool:

[Minnow]

What do y'all think? Better than a 50% chance of a rate cut on Wednesday?

http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0WTefg2lM5IeH8AjC.jzbkF/SIG=124n8f55f/EXP=1221584310/**http%3A//lakeweb.com/money/bernanke-helicopter.jpg

[Frixxxx]

What do y'all think? Better than a 50% chance of a rate cut on Wednesday?
He's gonna need a shave and a bigger briefcase!!!!:cool:

[Bullitt]

Bank of America

What the heck are they thinking buying Merrill? Talk about being late to the party, They are supposed to be the smart money! They buy CFC way before the housing bottom and have destroyed shareholders already with that one. Leverage is lost and gone forever on wall street yet BAC smashes shareholders further by buying MER today. Their tier one capital is going to take a major hit and get ready for a huge divy cut. At least the fed backed JPM with the BSC buyout so there was some kind of backstop.

BAC bought Merrill for 30 some bucks at the open when they probably could have bought it for about $3 at today's close! Smart Money?!

[Show-me]

Yea, two big stupid move in the same year. Everyone on the media wailed on them for being too early on CFC and now the same game with MER.

[ATCJeff]

Bank of America

What the heck are they thinking buying Merrill? Talk about being late to the party, They are supposed to be the smart money! They buy CFC way before the housing bottom and have destroyed shareholders already with that one. Leverage is lost and gone forever on wall street yet BAC smashes shareholders further by buying MER today. Their tier one capital is going to take a major hit and get ready for a huge divy cut. At least the fed backed JPM with the BSC buyout so there was some kind of backstop.

BAC bought Merrill for 30 some bucks at the open when they probably could have bought it for about $3 at today's close! Smart Money?!


My guess is BAC saw the writing on the wall and tried to save the financials with the buy. WRONG move! Price/money was not a factor. It was all about the save. Psychological move pure and simple!:nuts:

[James48843]

When you look at Who owns Who, you get the picture of how bad this one is going to get.

So far, we've had Fannie and Freddie go down. Then Lehman Brothers. Now AIG, a major holder of all of those stocks, is now down 65% today.

So who is next? Let's take a look at who is holding a major portion of AIG shares.

Here is a prediction: Watch AXA.

Market cap is showing 60 billion. Widely diversified. that's good.

But it looks like it's lost more than 10% of it's holdings in the last few days.

AXA is only down a bit today, but has been loosing steadily as all the others tumble.

AXA holdings so far in the last three months-- down nearly 7 billion:

AXA Losses By Firm (incomplete list of holdings)

________________Date_shareprice
_______#Shares__6/30/2008__9/12/2008_LOSS/-Profit
AIG__132593871___26.46___12.14__$1,898,744,232.72
FNM__134292348___19.51___0.74___$2,520,667,371.96
LEH__65706019____19.81___3.65___$1,061,809,267.04
FRE__41088126____16.40___0.46___$654,944,728.44
MER__48345162____31.71___17.05__$708,740,074.92
MS___66771586____36.07___37.23__-$77,455,039.76
GS___10168295__ 174.90__154.21__$210,382,023.55

___________________Total_______$6,977,832,658.87

That was as of last friday.

Now we take AIG, from last friday $12.14, to today's price: $5.80

FNH from last friday's 0.75 to today's 0.62

LEH from 3.65 to today's 0.21

FRE from .46 to today's 0.39

MER is the only bright spot- going from $17 to $20 today,

MS from $37.23 to today's $33.76

GS from friday's $154 to today's $142.

Things not looking good for AXA.

Dominos could unwind for companies like AXA, if too many holdings go down.


Guys, I got to thinking about this one on the way home tonight.

IF what we are seeing is in fact an unwinding, then we've only just begun to see some real financial bloodshed.

I mean the kind of financial bloodshed you don't see in your lifetime.

Let's look at the facts for a moment:

Current Administration is lazifare, refuses to regulate home morgtage lending. Does away with the separation of mortgage banks and investment banks. Does away with the uptick rule.

Folks- I'm telling you- the market is poised as it was in....1929.

Bear Stearns has a run, and the fed jumps in to save it. Fannie and Freddie start to unwind, and it's all over. THAT's why Paulson jumped in. But he can't stop it. Because they did away with the uptick rule.

So here goes. Big investment banks, who only began sucking up investment mortage dollars after the current admin let them a couple years ago, are the first to go down.

The books say they have lots of reserves. After all, they are holding stock in Fannie and Freddie. Oh yeh, in Merril Lynch and Bear Stearns too.

But then, one by one, the underlying assets tank. And they no longer have the reserves they thought they did. Pretty soon, they are bordering on not having reguatory reserves enough, as each of their holdings gets hit for more and more loss.

Then boom- a run on the bank, and they are in trouble.

There stock is now headed down. And, because of the removal of the uptick rule, shorts pounce on the opportunity. they see a stock in distress, and pile on the short sales.

Its the dang removal of the short-sale uptick rule. That's what is the cause of this.

As each one falls, the portfolios of all the rest of the investment banks tank. And with them, insurance companies.

One by one they go down. Until there aren't any left standing.

Friends- my friends-- We're about to see what a true fire sale looks like.

I wouldn't be a buyer tomorrow even if the VIX is up to 50-


(Is this what the beginning of a panic looks like? It feels to me a lot different than the crash of 87. I remember that one, and it wasn't like this.)

There, how's that for being optimistic?

:nuts:

[ATCJeff]

You got my vote. I'm lucky, I'm locked out until Oct. 1st. Kinda makes the decision easy.:D

[Birchtree]

I've never seen such a pusilanimous bunch - all mollusks.

[ATCJeff]

I've never seen such a pusilanimous bunch - all mollusks.

Thanks Birch,

Lets see I'm thin shelled, no courage and no resolve.

Oh yea, I'm also not down 19.59% for the year!

Jeff

[Birchtree]

All points well taken.