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View Full Version : Survivor Bias is Killing Me



rokid
07-16-2008, 09:36 PM
How can I get back to having a return better than 50% of the TSPers, if people keep quiting the autotracker? :mad: We've lost 30 so far this year.

This market is a financial confidence course. Do you BELIEVE in your strategy?!! :cool:-----Jim

P.S. Today was good. What do the tea leaves say? Up or down tomorrow?

Show-me
07-16-2008, 09:45 PM
I'm still here. Wait and see for conformation.

Fivetears
07-17-2008, 01:18 AM
http://nzphoto.tripod.com/History/images/snake-oil.jpg
Still here too. Strategy?
How about free advice?
Don't buy one. :rolleyes: :notrust:

Bullitt
07-17-2008, 08:33 AM
I like how you posted this one under 'Long Term Fund Strategies'.

I'm still in the Peloton, eating up the lone breakaways one by one...

rokid
07-17-2008, 11:12 AM
I'm still in the Peloton, eating up the lone breakaways one by one...

Bullit,

This is an interesting time for me. It's my first bear market with a substantial amount of money on the line. So far I feel very confident about my strategy - long term! The market is doing what it's supposed to do 1/3 of the time - go down. The really interesting part will be when it goes back up, tomorrow, next year, or two years from now. Will people who have rushed to the sidelines get back in at the right time?

In addition, I'm glad I don't have to rely solely on my TSP for retirement. With my CSRS and part-time job and haven't even needed to touch my TSP. I feel sorry for young people in the private sector. They'll need to be very smart, long term investors and/or workers.

"Peloton" - I had to look that up. I never took French. Very descriptive.

Short term, I'm fading towards the rear of the Peloton. Must be some nasty financial head winds :laugh:----Jim

Birchtree
07-17-2008, 12:32 PM
I believe in my strategy as a longer term buy and holder - now the fun begins, especially when crude oil breaks below $130 and it's on the way. I appreciate my DCAing concept I've practiced for many, many years as the redeemer of last resort. It will take our younger folks even longer to accumulate shares because the dollars are limited while the fund prices are elevating. All it takes is discipline to be right and sit tight.

rokid
07-17-2008, 01:48 PM
All it takes is discipline to be right and sit tight.

Agreed. However, it takes some big cahonnies to ride this coaster down, screaming, with your hands raised over your head. I've got mini-cahonnies, hence the 25% fixed income allocation. :nuts:

Good luck!----Jim

P.S. How's your daughter doing? Is she back in the world yet?

USGubmintGenEnginer
07-18-2008, 08:57 AM
1. Define what kind of market you are in for your investment options.

2. Work with bullish trending investments where possible. Next range-bound markets, and finally bearish markets but only with great care.

3. Stop trying to be a world-class bottom/top picker. Our freedom to trade minor swings has been taken away, unless they happen to be near the months end/beginning. I find it impossible to believe that those who were placing IFTs multiple times per month (more than 4) were actually doing better with that approach than they could have done taking a swing approach. This bears out in the returns posted here. Having said that, I believe that if someone wants to do that they should have the freedom to do so but pay for the commissions personally.

4. Make sure that what you define as "successful" really is an accurate definition. If you think you have to make 100% ROI every year to be successful, your definition needs revising.

5. Do not fall in the snare of faulting others for your mistakes and/or becoming jealous. These are childish immature and ignorant character flaws. Unfortunately, these vices are promoted & cultivated on some forums.

6. Gauge your performance as compared to a meaningful & reasonable measure. Use either market performance or the C fund performance - take your pick - not some other persons.

7. Educate yourself & know about the investment vehicles and how they relate to the economy. Also learn about how they perform vis-a-vis overbought/oversold in the different market environments. Fully understand that difference & don't fall prey to 'across the board' techniques. Each market environment mandates its own technique for the indicators.

8. Understand the difference between noise and reality. There are many, many liars who post on the internet regarding investments. Never trade by noise - never. Sometimes they will tell the truth, and the next time they will lie. Many post as if they really knew and they don't have a clue. I re-entered on the close 7/3. Okay, the S fund was near its bottom but I missed by more than 50 s&p's on the c fund. Big deal! If we trade higher over the next several weeks my entry will have served me well (as compared to G fund returns over the same period) and I will be satisfied with the investment. Trade by your indicators and expectations. If you are happy with twice G fund performance that is great. If you want to quadruple it, go for it but realize your attention must be more focused. If you desire to beat it by a minimum of 10X, which is my goal, then be aware that you must do homework and refine your entry and exit points based upon accurate indicators.

Lastly, remember that we are blessed by giving - not getting. Giving is sometimes fun and sometimes a real pain. Most people never show any appreciation at all, but to be a giving person you have to keep on giving in spite of what others do or don't do.

Good luck!

USGGE


How can I get back to having a return better than 50% of the TSPers, if people keep quiting the autotracker? :mad: We've lost 30 so far this year.

This market is a financial confidence course. Do you BELIEVE in your strategy?!! :cool:-----Jim

P.S. Today was good. What do the tea leaves say? Up or down tomorrow?