clester's Account Talk

[clester]

For anyone who cares I made a change to 100% I for Wed. The Euro stocks were up this morning and I'm looking for the delayed reaction from US markets and the weak dollar to lift the I.

Beware. My picks haven't done well lately. Hope my luck changes soon.

[Timer]

Hi Clester, I like I as well. I am 50S and 50I.

Like Tom, I am looking long term in the S fund.

= Timer

[Dakota]

Clester,

wheredo you get the euro stock info, I would like to have that information because I have been just taking a SWAG at it

[ou81200]

Dakota---

Go to CNN.com. On the left side of the screen, click on "Business at cnn money". Then on the left side of the screen, put your pointer on "World biz", but don't click. To the left of that, a blue box will come up. In the box, you will see "World Markets". Click on that. It will show you the Asia, European, and Canadian market in close to real time.



Hop this helps :).

[Dakota]

Thanks ou8 all help is appreciated looked at it. very insteresting

[clester]

I think the rise in the S&P was mainly due to buying of the beaten down insurance stocks. Oil is up today on lower heating oil. GDP tomorow. I think there is more potential for downside than upside. I'm staying I fund for tomorow. I'm thinking if US dives, the effect will be muted a little in Europe and give me some time to adjust. I want to get back into S or C. Maybe after election.

100% I fund for tomorow we'll see. The I fund chart still looks good.



http://www.tspmoney.com/tools/graph.php?i=1&emove=20&datestart=2004-01-01&dateend=2004-10-27&wd=700&ht=300.

[Show-me]

Amen Clester! I fund 100%.:^

[clester]

Today was a breather day. It wasn't down much which is a bullish sign. Tomorow will depend on the GDP report. I doubt there will be any surprises.

The market has momentum on the upside. Tomorow may be a good day if no surprises. I Fund chart still looks the best to me.

Monday maybe down some. A good excuse to take profits with the election on Tuesday. Uncertainty. Will there be a clear winner?, lawsuits lasting for weeks?, Bush?, Kerry?

Tuesday will be quiet I think. Low volume.
Wednesday if all goes well I think we're off to the races. I think there will be challenges so I may wait until Wednesday morning and see how it goes.

So Friday 100% I, Monday 100% G (we're due a penny on the G fund)

Unless, of course I change my mind in the morning

[Dakota]

pretty aggressive, I watch your forum scared to follow I on friday,if I read the foriegn markets right they are all red. what does that meaan?

[clester]

I think the election results will be decisive. I think the market today is telling us that. The Polls are telling us that. Oil is going down. Charts look good. November is going to be good and I'm afraid to miss out. The I fund should give some insulation against a big US drop maybe a chance to get out if it goes bad.

Therefore, 50% G 50% I for Wednesday. probably will go 100% I for Thurs.

[Dakota]

clester wrote: I think the election results will be decisive. I think the market today is telling us that. The Polls are telling us that. Oil is going down. Charts look good. November is going to be good and I'm afraid to miss out. The I fund should give some insulation against a big US drop maybe a chance to get out if it goes bad.

Therefore, 50% G 50% I for Wednesday. probably will go 100% I for Thurs.


Thats what I was wondering will do the same for thursday, unless I decide to withdraw before 11:00 wed.

[clester]

It Looks like Bush has won and the US narkets should react well. I'm not sure on the I fund now. The chart looks good. If US narket do well the I should follow. I think C & I have more pent up energy, so for tomorow I'll go 33 C, 33 S, 34 I.
Unless the election drags on or the markets get scared. If that happens I'll probably go 100% I.;)

[whynot]

I am new to this. I just learned that I can change my allotments daily. What is the best way to get info.

[clester]

Lots of good advice on this site, just use it at your own risk. One site I use is TSPMONEY.com . It has a lot of good info.;)

[tsptalk]

whynot wrote: I am new to this. I just learned that I can change my allotments daily. What is the best way to get info.
Welcome whynot! Reading this message board and the daily market comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html)) is a good start to get a feel for the market. It you want investment advice or learning material, you can check out our recommended reading forum... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum29/ (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum29/)

Thanks for joining us.
Tom

[puertorico]

JUST A COMMENT ABOUT I-FUND

When I-Fund goes way ahead of S-FUND
The dollar is weak ,So the dollar have been weak
and still weak.I dont know for how long .:^



sO , for the next time that START happen AGAIN,
"I-fund ahead or S-fund"
I will jump to I-FUND...BUT fOr now I dont know is it to late to jump in...:?.
maybe is time to jump to S-fund to go faster than I-FUND.

GOOD POINT OR NOT ? :D

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote: I will jump to I-FUND...BUT fOr now I dont know is it to late to jump in...:?.
maybe is time to jump to S-fund to go faster than I-FUND.

GOOD POINT OR NOT ? :D

How long can the dollar fall?:shock: I'd say it's time for theS fund but I've said that for weeks now. The dollarhas to rebound eventually.

[Dakota]

tsptalk wrote: puertorico wrote: I will jump to I-FUND...BUT fOr now I dont know is it to late to jump in...:?.
maybe is time to jump to S-fund to go faster than I-FUND.

GOOD POINT OR NOT ? :D

How long can the dollar fall?:shock: I'd say it's time for theS fund but I've said that for weeks now. The dollarhas to rebound eventually.


It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

[tsptalk]

Dakota wrote: It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

By all means, if you've been in the I fund this whole time, ride it out. I know as soon as I move to the I fund, the S will be the winner. I won't jinx ya by doing that to you;)

[Dakota]

tsptalk wrote: Dakota wrote: It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

By all means, if you've been in the I fund this whole time, ride it out. I know as soon as I move to the I fund, the S will be the winner. I won't jinx ya by doing that to you;)


I bailed out of the I fund before deadline this morning. I feel it will drop like a hot rock 25g 35c 40s

[puertorico]

I will run to G too,looking for the G penny on Monday

I will go to 60-G 20-F 20-S :DVERY VERY CONSERVATIVE:D.

[clester]

I agree that a pull back is coming. I don't think it will drop like a rock though. There is too much momentum right now. Any dips will be a buying opportunity. We will zig zag higher for a while. The dollar will stay low and I fund stocks should continue to outperform. I will stay invested now untill some trends change. C fund is due to catch up.

I'm not going conservative. I'm fully invested. Still 33% C, 33% S and 34% I.

Thats my humble opinion. I've been wrong before.

:^

[Dakota]

Dakota wrote: tsptalk wrote: Dakota wrote: It will but I win;t pull out till I see it happen,then I'll go more on s fund

By all means, if you've been in the I fund this whole time, ride it out. I know as soon as I move to the I fund, the S will be the winner. I won't jinx ya by doing that to you;)


I bailed out of the I fund before deadline this morning. I feel it will drop like a hot rock 25g 35c 40s



clester, after what I saw today I eat my words and if I is still good monday I will reallocate to 33s 33c 34I I like the way you think. I was very surprised when I left at noon, then just now seen todays results Great See ya

[clester]

The I fund was down .08 cents today. On the web site www.msci.com the eafe on the US dollar side shows -.04% (almost flat) Therefore tomorow we should make up that diparity. So I believe the I fund will do better that C or S tomorrow. I hope they are all up.

I'm not surprised about today. Will we be back up tomorow or will Mr Greenspan rule the dsy? I don't know. Thinking about getting out for wednesday or Thurs., just because of interest rate decision.

Opinions?

[smedlap]

clester, I myself left the market today and tomorrow resting in the G fund. I expected a much larger drop today supported by another drop tomorrow for the market to digest a great run - consolidation along a modest pullback. But tomorrow night CISCO reports expected positive earnings after the FMOC meeting. My bet is that Wednesday the market climbs for some time. Today's strength (even though flat) perplexis me. I translate that there is a lot of money on the sidelines getting ready to be played. I'm still looking for the pullback but unwilling to waite longer than Wednesday. I'm moving back in on Wednesday 100% into G with my fingers and legs crossed. I fund - too much foreign intervention discussions right now. Your thoughts.

[Dakota]

clester wrote: The I fund was down .08 cents today. On the web site http://www.msci.com the eafe on the US dollar side shows -.04% (almost flat) Therefore tomorow we should make up that diparity. So I believe the I fund will do better that C or S tomorrow. I hope they are all up.

I'm not surprised about today. Will we be back up tomorow or will Mr Greenspan rule the dsy? I don't know. Thinking about getting out for wednesday or Thurs., just because of interest rate decision.

Opinions?


hey clester where ya been? I'm staying moderately agressive see yas

[Chips]

Hello All, Thought I would throw out my 0.02. Been in this for a few years and just moved from G to 48C, 48S, and 2I. I'm in long and looking aggressively towards the future. Hope to have some fun in the process and learning more about the I, still a little sceptical about it.

[tsptalk]

Welcome Chips!

[clester]

Hey Dakaota,

I'm still here just letting all my money ride right now.. I'm 33% c, 33% s, and 34% I.

I think we will basically go up for awhile. I'll stay fully invested and I won't try any wiggles untill the charts break down. Right now I'm just riding the wave and keeping my fingers crossed. I was lucky enogh to be in last week. WHOOPIE!

[sonofthunder]

I like the I Fund too but 100% is too steep for me right now as I have noticed how high the share prices are getting. I wonder if this is really a helpful indicator though. I don't know if many have noticed but the morningstar rating on the I fund is 4 Stars. Where as on the S Fund the rating in only 2 stars. But many I have read elsewhere agree with you when our dollar is down the I Fund is the one to jump into. I have been trying to find a good place to keep an eye onour dollar and how it might do in the near future. Any ideas?

[tsptalk]

sonofthunder wrote: I have been trying to find a good place to keep an eye onour dollar and how it might do in the near future. Any ideas?
Welcome sonofthunder!

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

I also use decisionpoint.com but that is a pay site.

[sonofthunder]

tanks, :^just learnin to git around this site. need more hrs. in my day. by the by sire where & howmight one pick up an avatar and insert it? am i new at this stuff? yep born yesterday. tanks again.

[tsptalk]

For avatars, go to the top of the page and click on "My Account". Then toward the middle of that page, there is a menu. Click on "Avatar".

[grandma]

:#...speaking of avatars - the hands on my clock are supposed to be spinning - I mean Really Spinning . Did shrinking it to fit cause the loss of animation?? :?

[tsptalk]

I don't think the animated gifs work there. Mine is also supposed to be flailing his arms about, typing.

[EW_ret]

This is your resurrected account talk thread. You must have an "clester's Account Talk" thread when you open an account. Since your talk thread is from 2004 I renamed it and made an entry. Good luck and investing!:)

[clester]

Thanks EW,
I've been around awhile. Just haven't been tracked. Thought I'd throw in my 2 cents.

My timing method is basically playing trend channels. If long term trend (50 day moving average) is up , I'll stay at least 50% in stocks, and move around 50% depending on where we're at in the short tem trend channel. I also like to be in the fund thats performing the best in the short term ( 1 month or so). Therefore, today I'm 50% c and 50% g because we're at the top of the c fund channel (and it has the best short term returns) and the 50 dma is up. Did that make sense?

Hey Vectorman, get your account started too!

[clester]

S fund opened up higher than the C fund again, that make 3 days in a row. Big caps slowing down? I guess it has to do with the 1527 mark, people getting nervous. Can we close above it today?

[clester]

50 dma is still in an uptrend and S fund is performing better the last few days so I moved my 50% C fund amount to S fund. Still 50% G because we're near the top of the channels.

[clester]

Looks like we may have a sell off this afternoon and tomorrow will be a question mark. C fund is less volitile, so I changed my mind to stay 50% C fund.

[clester]

I've been burned by the I fund lately, but its attempting a breakout again. So, I'm going 25% I , 25% G and keeping 50% C. I'm a little concerned about Friday and next tuesday, Seasonality wise.

[clester]

1622


C fund still outperforming on a monthly basis. Looks like the sideways move has put us in the lower half of the channel. If we're down this morning I may add to C fund. I fund is going to bite me again.

[clester]

Going in 100% C. C fund is performing best and we're now at the bottom of the channel and close to 20 DMA. (Buy the dip?????) Will watch for break of 20 DMA to lighten up.

[clester]

Looks like everyone is bailing out today. Whats up? Could be a big sell off this afternoon. Good day to buy IMHO

[clester]

So far holding 1510 level. There is some support from back in early may at this level. If we bounce from here the trend of bouncing off the bottom of the trend line (or 20 DMA) will be intact. if not watch out. IMO we will bounce, if not today then tomorrow. TSPtalkers bailed today though. That worries me a little. All that mone will come out this afternoon and probably push us down.

[SkiUtah]

I'm follow the trends, and posted earlier that there is a potential greenspin trend, he talks negative, the market tanks. Last time it was that 4% drop....I got out for the weekend.

[weatherweenie]

So far holding 1510 level. There is some support from back in early may at this level. If we bounce from here the trend of bouncing off the bottom of the trend line (or 20 DMA) will be intact. if not watch out. IMO we will bounce, if not today then tomorrow. TSPtalkers bailed today though. That worries me a little. All that mone will come out this afternoon and probably push us down.

Down to 1,508.66.

Had 50% in G on Wed., put that 50% in C/I for today. :(
Bailed for Friday.

[clester]

1623

We have held the 20 DMA. Will it hold tomorrow? We're at a critical stage. If we break the trend, who know whats next.

[clester]

Boy, I was surprised this morning when I first looked at the market. I intentionally didn't check anything until this morning. I was expecting another leg down.( My emotions) . Luckily , I followed the trend and bought the down day. I see several TSPtalkers going to I fund today. I had that same idea, but it bitten me lately. Seems like the I has done pretty well over our holiday breaks. Anyone have stats on that?

[clester]

I hope we have a short covering rally this afternoon. Fridays have been good lately I think because shorts get out for the weekend.

[clester]

-fv has gotten me twice lately in the I fund. My timing really sucks. Glad I only had 25% in it. I should have stayed with my game plan and used the best performing fund. (C fund)

1625

[clester]

C fund still holding the 20 dma and is still in an up trend. Also as this chart shows the C fund is still outperforming over the last 2 months. I'm staying in until the trend changes or 20 dma is broken. The pattern of the channel tops and bottoms is also intact.
1637

[clester]

C fund is still performing well and 20 dma is in an uptrend. I like to play the trend channel and as we approach the upper part of the channel take 50% out. We are approaching that point, but I don't think we're quite there. Fridays and Mondays have been good the last few weeks. I'm contemplating taking 50% out today, but technically I should stay all in for awhile. Maybe until Monday.??

[clester]

Getting a little nervous and we're above halfway in the c fund channel. So, I'm taking 50% out to G. 50% G and 50% C

[clester]

1641

It looks like S FUND has taken the lead int the short term (1 Month), but they're all pretty close now. C fund appears to be a little over halfway up the channel. We could go as high as 1560 before a pullback. Although, we have been up for 5 days straight. I will probably increase my exposure on any pullback.

[nnuut]

I see things at the top of their channels. What do you do then?:confused::confused: Invest more? Yes! with insider information, Got any?:worried:

[clester]

I see things at the top of their channels. What do you do then?:confused::confused: Invest more? Yes! with insider information, Got any?:worried:

I appears to me we are in the upper half of the channel, thats why I took 50% out Friday.

[RunningFool]

Best insider advice I have ever gotten: Markets go up, markets go down, Sell when they're high, Buy when they're down. You will ALLWAYS make money. That will be $.50, please.:laugh: I just realized there is no cent symbol on my keyboard. Probably one of those ALT-CTRL,Shift esc key combination thingys.

[RunningFool]

Somewhere in Arkansas, near where one river crosses another river. That's all I'm saying.:D

[clester]

Looks like it's time to buy. 20 dma is about 1520 which has been solid support. 1527 (The old high might also give some support). Time to buy the dip. I'll go back in 100%. I've been eyeing the S fund. It's outperformed the last few days, but I'll stick with C fund for now.

[clester]

I think today fits right in with how the market's been behaving for a while. The only exception being the Feb drop. As I write this we are right at the 20dma and I expect a bounce by this afternoon. If we close below 1520 (the 20dma) I will have to go into defense mode.
1647

[clester]

Correction the 20 day ema is at 1517.

[clester]

We are in oversold area now and I think tomorrow will be an up day. I regret that I went 100% in too early, but thats the way it goes. We are below the 20 day ema which is worrisome. I am considering the S fund for tomorrow, expecting a bounce because we're oversold and looking for some short covering before the weekend.

[clester]

Lots of folk running to G today. Looks like we see further selling this afternoon. I would be surprised if we didn't bounce tomorrow. Could be a dead cat though. Lots of fear in the air around here. Time to buy right?
No matter what if we don't hold the 50 day ema I'll take some out.

[clester]

I know it can't be used for the tracker, but as I made my transaction today, I noticed I was still 50% G. Either I didn't make the transaction or TSP didn't. I don't know, but I won't complain. 100 S for tomorrow

[clester]

Playing the short term channels is out. Long term channel (1 year) is intact, but a long way to the bottom of the channel. 50 Day ema has held so far today on the s&p. I'm expecting a bounce for a few days, but maybe another leg down. Right now I'm thinking I may get out for Tuesday.

[clester]

Still not getting a good feeling about the markets, but fell I should be in for at least one more day. So I moved to C fund (not as volitile)

[clester]

The markets seem ok today, but I've got that uneasy feeling. Maybe its the 10 year note. Still holding the 50 day ema. Tuesdays scare me anyway. Not much news until Wednesday's retail sales. I can't see a good reason to stay 100% in for tomorrow. I'll go 50% G and keep 50% C

[clester]

Nice bounce here at about 12 o'clock. If we continue up today that would mean 2 pretty good days in a row. Maybe, buy the red and sell the green time?

[clester]

I went 50% C and 50% I. Fridays have been good for at least 6 weeks and I bekieve CPI will be inline. The Fair valuation in the I fund (See Griffins comments) and the dollar are reasons for the move. I have been burned the last couple of time I went int the I fund. Hope this time is different. Also US markets up big yesterday and some follow through today is a good sign.

[clester]

Since we've had a good run this week, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back. We're near overbought or already there. All the funds are near their tops and may see some risistance. I like to keep 50% in while while 50 dma is an uptrend, but I'm getting a little nervous here near the top. I fund is still in a range and has been for awhile. Therefore, I'm going 100% G. Since I like to keep 50% in I'll probably pu it back in on any weekness.

[clester]

Very quiet day so far. It seems many TSPers going to G for tomorrow. So, we may get a dip this afternoon. I won't play it. Too risky. Plus Tuesdays scare me. Maybe, I'll dip in a little for Wed if we get that dip.

[clester]

We're still flat to slightly down. Not enough down to entice me in yet. This slow down trend could pick up steam. No good reason to get in except we're above the 20 dma and in an long term up trend. I would like to go in 50%, but seems a little risky. Since I'm out already I stick it out for another day.

[clester]

I got lucky yesterday. Just had a feeling it would sell off. It worked out well as S&P lost over 1%. I went in 50% yesterday and I love Fridays lately. I'll keep doing what works. I'll go in 100% today .nice recovery so far. 50C 50 I

[fedgolfer]

I love Fridays lately.

I think the Dow win streak on fridays is something like 13 or 14.

[clester]

S&P is now getting oversold and at the bottom of the channel. I fund makes me nervous. 100% C

[clester]

I see alot of TSPTalkers buying today. Could be a rally at the close.

[clester]

Selling some GREEN. Maybe buy back by Thursday. Nice bounce off the 50 day EMA. I'm not convinced though. Tuesdays scare me a little, so thats another reason. I think Thur and Fri may be good.

[clester]

Well that didn't go as planned. Back to 100% C for Wed.

[clester]

Seems we're in a sideways channel now and in the upper half of it. Stochastics show that we're overbought. I'm looking for a retracement. I like staying in 50% while we're in an uptrend, but it looks a little risky right now.

[clester]

My strategy is to be in at least 50% while we're in an uptrend. I've violated that and have lost out some. C and S have been up too much it seems and I has broken out of its basing pattern. So, the I seems the best bet for my 50%. As others have said the dollar my hurt me there, but I'll probably ride it for awhile. I hate the I for short term plays. FV has bitten me too many times.

[clester]

Moving to I fund for several reasons. 1)Tame inflation data should help the I fund. 2)Its due to play catch-up. 3) It not as overbought as USM. Looks like a good day to load up. 4) Chart is in great shape.

I'm not sure where FV's will come. I'm not really gung-ho, but odds seem to be in favor of continued climb in the short term.

[clester]

I really want to move a little to the side. But what a great buying opportunity today. Looking for a big week next week. We've rested this week. 100% C

[clester]

Looks like another good buying opportunity today. It the routine holds up we'll bounce tomorrow. Looking at the charts it looks like we'll be at the bottom of the short term channel (1 month). I'm in the I fund and its getting hammered. Should I stay for the bounce in the I tomorrow? or go to the C for the bounce? Lets see how the day unfolds.

[clester]

Looks like the S fund is way oversold today. It should get a bounce soon. Dollar is at resistance level of 80. EU is oversold also, but dollar may bounce also. I think I'll give the S a whirl.

[clester]

Really unsure today. The markets seem to be oversold (per stochastics). Especially the S fund. It has some catching up to do. So, I decided to just let it ride.

[clester]

I have reached my pain threshold. I'll move 50% to G or F. So, for those contrarians out there, you have a buy signal. I look for a short covering bounce at the close. I think they'll want to close position for the week. (I'm hoping here). We come down so far so fast we've got to have a bounce. Where are all the dip buyers? At least today its a modestly quiet day.

[clester]

I can't stay on the sidelines right now, although I afraid (probably good). I'm glad today has been flat so far. hope it stays that way. We are way oversold, especially the I fund. S fund continues to lag and it might bounce a little harder, its drifting further than the C fund( safer). I expect a couple days up and then lower again.

[clester]

I'm expecting a bad reaction, at least initially, to the fed statement. So, I went 50 g 50 i. I may buy back in for Wednesday. We'll see.

[clester]

I'm looking to play the FV thing with the I fund. I plan to be out for Friday. Subject to change. I'm looking for a negative reaction after the fed and then a reversal for tomorrow.

[clester]

Looks like another up day. Good day to take some off the table. The last couple Fridays have been bad. I will probably go 100% G for Friday. The question is will the credit scare be back? UK and EU have interest rate meetings tomorrow also.

[clester]

I don't want to be in for friday. They've been bad lately. We were overbought yesterday, but with this mornings sell off we'll probably come off that. 100% G

[FogSailing]

It will be interesting to see if the sub-prime woes follow the market into tomorrow. The central banks seem to be finally starting to step up...but they may be trying to be surgical...inwhich case...I don't think we're through this yet. It could be that we test the 200dma again before this si all thru..

Good luck in your investing..

FS

[clester]

I'm going to sit today out. If we finish down I may try to play an oversold bounce for Monday. It's too wild out there. No one knows what to expect. I think we're in for a long rough road.

[clester]

Based the the ebbnflow following (everyone selling I fund) I bet the I fund takes a dive tomorrow. I call it the TSP effect. I haven't tracked it yet, but I think there is a correlation. We have a lot of money commulatively.

[clester]

So far my theory of a similar pattern to 1998 is intact. Then the fed cut .25% in sept. and .5% in oct. The market took off after the .5% Bernanke cut .5% first. Look at the chart for 1998 starting in oct compared to sept 2007. I don't like look at those types of comparisons very often, but it fits very well chart-wise and economy-wise. Only time will tell.

[clester]

Well I for one is glad this year is over. It's been my worst year yet vs the S & P. Too many bad decisions and being caught in every big drop. I didn't have as much time this year to spend on research and such, and it shows. It does take time to be able to time the market. I'm hoping for a better year and plan on going back to the basics (the way I used to trade). I think this year will have several big swings sorta like last year. I hope everyone makes a lot of money this year! Good luck.