View Full Version : Mike's Account Talk
Here's a little starter materialregarding my situation and my corresponding approach to the market:
I'm 26 years old and will have reached my 2 year mark in federal service this December. My "horizon" is about 40 years, so I tend to be more aggressive than most - I'll probably be close to fully invested in stocks even when the market deals with extended bouts of weakness / sideways action (like it did this summer). As such I will take my share of losses - but I won't miss any rallies, either. :)
I pretty much ignore seasonality charts. I prefer to pay attention to interest rates and the overall state of the economy.
Everyone is welcome to laugh at me as I ride the rollercoaster market. :^
For the curious-minded, here are my rates of return for the past four quarters (the only four I have been investing) using Pete's formula posted elsewhere:
2003 Q 3: 1.29% (all G - took months to get my PIN#)
2003 Q 4: 9.69% (got my PIN# in November and dove in)
2003 overall return: 16.04%
2004 Q 1: 2.54%
2004 Q 2: 1.65%
2004 Q 3: I haven't looked at my numbers for this closely yet, but it's looking flat - somewhere between -0.4% / +0.4%.
tsptalk
10-05-2004, 03:26 AM
Good luck Mike! For the sake of this forum, pleaseuse your returns beginning today. Like some others have done, you can start with a ficticious balancelike $10,000 or $100,000 for simplicity sake. It might help us follow your progess.
Thanks for participating!
Tom
I just posted the "quarterlies" to demonstrate my limited track record. :P
But yes, feel free to track me with fictitious $10k (it's not that far from the truth!) split 4-0-32-32-32. :D
Small gains today - looks like there was some profit-taking on the early upward action.
TheProphet
10-05-2004, 03:34 PM
Mike,
I was 26 once... also... I learn the market take and give... that when I paid more deeper attention and now I consider everything as possible... TRENT, CYCLES, SEASONALITIES, RANDOM NEWS... of course cycles and news includes the 11economics indicators more significants... etc...etc... I am feel very comfortable with my strategy... of course everyone has His/Her own that taylor to Him/Herself...
Wish you the best... Good Luck on Your investments...
Leon
Thanks, Leon. I might be the youngest investor on here. Maybe Tom should poll the online audience here and find out where we fall on age, etc. :D
Now that I *finally* have gotten home and have time to type this, here is why I lightened my load in the I fund:
I spotted a news article early this morning that mentioned rather uninspiring news on the European economy. So, to borrow on Tom's little spiel on the market conditions today, I "sold on the news". I'll use my strengthened holdings in the G fund to look for another buying opportunity - most likely after the inevitable pullback takes place.
tsptalk
10-09-2004, 04:42 AM
Mike wrote: So, to borrow on Tom's little spiel on the market conditions today, I "sold on the news".
lol. :D The key to that saying is to buy the rumor of good news, then sell when the good news come out. And sell the rumor of bad news and buy when the bad news comes out. That's because the market is smarter than us and has usually moved before the news comes out. Maybe not in your European market situation, but in general.
So if you hear a rumor thatcompany ABC is going to have a good earnings report, buy. But as soon as the good report comes out, sell!
I feel like I've been buying the bad news all year. :P
Here is some interesting data (or perhaps not so much)for everyone's consumption:
2004 highs: C $12.15 (3-5-04), S $13.51 (4-5-04), I $13.79 (10-8-04; prev high $13.70 on 4-12-04)... so the I-fund has made a new high (take that, bear market people :P)! C-fund came within $0.03 of its yearly high on the 6th (oh so close!). S-fund came within $0.20 of its high.
2004 lows: C $11.25 (8-12-04), S $11.87 (8-12-04), I $12.39 (5-17-04). For those that care, the I was still $0.41 above its low for the year when C and S hit theirs.
Current prices: C $11.91 - $0.66 above the bottom, $0.24 from the top;S $13.03 - $1.16 from bottom, $0.48 from the top; I $13.79 - at the top, $1.40 from bottom :shock:.
By the numbers, I fund is bullish while C and S are bearish - however, if seasonality means anything this year, C and S could both break through to new highs for the year after posting yearly lows just two months ago. Of course, people want to know which funds will do the best for the remainder of the year, and as far as that goes, I think C and S will outperform I (the dollar is incredibly weak and is bound to gain strength at some point). And just in case they don't, I'll continue holdingsome I fund shares. :P
Ha, how things change... I'm not holding anything in the I-fund at this time - waiting for the next buying opportunity. After moving that chunk of money to G, nothing much happened to the I fund price (except for yesterday's gain). C and S have both dropped back a bit - about $0.20 lower than my last post here. I view this is a nice time to buy - but I'm still hedging with a split between C and S.
I won't seriously consider buying back into the I-fund until I see at least a modest retreat off the high.
After a painful two weeks on the sideline in G, I'm back into the market. I will likely ride this move into January... 20 C 50 S 30 I... heh.
Hopefully I'll finish the year with a 10% gain or more. If I do that annually, I might need an accountant to keep track of the $$$. :D
Shares were bought at the following prices (for ease of tracking heh):
20% C at $12.44
50% S at $13.82
30% I at $14.63
vectorman
11-23-2004, 04:42 AM
Mike have you always had that much patience to waitout the market? Does that come from years of experience? In a Bull market, how were you able tostay the course and wait that long? I'm always learning, and would appreciate your comment. Thanks
tsptalk
11-23-2004, 04:59 AM
I'll jump in here if you don't mind Mike...
Patience is a great quality in an investor and trader. I have found that you can make good gains or protect from biglosses if you correct a wrong decison quickly. Of course you have to recognize the mistake which isn't easy. If you don't act quickly then you need to wait it out as Mike did, because the market will eventuallycome back.The market rarely goes strainght up, or straight down.
In Mike's case, and I've been there many times, he could have jumped in earlier and made some money before pulling out. But since he didn't catch muchof the move up since Veteran's Day, he did a great job in waiting for that inevitablepullback, rather than chasing.
:^
vectorman
11-23-2004, 05:33 AM
Thanks Tom , this is such a great site.Always trying to learn.;)
I have only been in thrift since June of last year (just under 2 yrs experience as a federal employee), so I don't owe this to any sort of investing experience, really. I've just paid much closer attention to the markets this year as well as economic news and so forth. I saw my error on the 2nd pretty quickly, but was worrying about the pullback hitting right after I went in - had I gone in within that first week. So, I just waited... and waited... and waited. Last Friday, I just said the heck with it and went in all the way - and when I came home from work and saw all the red - and down big - I knew I had done the right thing. So it was partly luck, partly patience. :^
Today's move is 75 G, 25 I (meaning I'm selling the 20% C, 50% S, and 1/6 of the I-fund amount).
Originally, I was going to go 100 G, but I decided with the dollar continuing to perform poorly, I wanted to maintain most of my I-fund position. Looking to the future though, I believe that the S fund will outperform the I fund, which is why I didn't do something like move 50% into I (proof is in the pudding: most of my gains on my latest move came from the S fund).
C fund continues to lag behind the other two. It looks like we'll need another rate hike or two before that one starts to lead the S again.
Whatever happens, I can't be disappointed with this last move... it *finally* gave me a piece of this latest bull market. Those two weeks on the sidelines were very difficult! :^
Moving to 75 S, 25 I today (I remains the same).
Moving to 25 G / 50 S / 25 I... want something set aside just in case there is a pullback.
Posted: Tue Dec 7th, 2004 11:34 am
Effective at the end of today:
25 G
50 S
25 I
Change of heart there youngin'?.............:P
Yeah, I got a bad feeling after hearing the productivity numbers... unfortunately, that bad feeling hit 24 hours late. :shock:
I'm not locking in anymore losses and will simply ride out whatever else happens... though with the I-fund dropping a couple days in a row, I might take advantage and move something more in there.
15 G
50 S
35 I
Effective at the end of today... I've been waiting for the I-fund to drop back a bit so I could buy more of it. Today looks like a good day to do that, with the dollar gaining some strength and the foreign markets dropping a bit.
At the end of today, I'll be 15 C, 50 S, 35 I.
As much as I hate the C fund, it *will* start outperforming the S at some point - it always happens as an economic expansion matures. Whether or not it will happen this month, I don't know. So, this is a hedge play... plus with the market dropping, it's a buy-in opportunity (though I really hate myself for not bailing on Monday to buy in now - *sigh*).
Effective at the end of today:
20 C
50 S
30 I
I'm moving 5% I into the C fund (this is purely a profit-taking move)... knowing that the euro is up big against the dollar (1% at last check :shock:). Our own market has turned slightly red, so perhaps I can catch the C fund on a reversal day and get a lower buy-in point. That's the thinking, anyway.
The I fund could push above $15 today based on current EAFE and currency movement. Terrible day to buy into the I but a nice day to sell some.
vectorman
12-15-2004, 10:30 PM
Mike I don't think it's thatterrible of a day for those who may buy in to the I fund, at least for the short term. After going through it correction we can now more clearly see which way the market wants to go.Look at this chart, using the one month time frame, to see more clearly. Look how high theEFA went on Dec. 6.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA
The money is there, so if the conditions continue to be positive, we should see a new high for the I fund. I saw where one person thought the I fund was getting to high. But that is all relative. As longasinvestors are willing to buy and invest hoping to get some return, then price is really not the issue. Just look at google,people are still willing to buy in!
It certainly has room to move up, there's no question about that. However, I'd always rather buy into something on a down day rather than a big up day. This is the second double-digit gain in the I fund this week. :shock:
vectorman
12-16-2004, 05:32 AM
Sure it's great to buy low , then sell high. But you and I both know that with the system we have to work with through TSP, things sometimes don't happenperfectly. I had noticed where some members had diversified and were planning on putting somein the I fund. I was just just trying to make them feel better, especially if they had just read your comment about a terrible day to buy into the I fund. I was just pointing out that I believe it may go a little higher. The potential is definitely present.It's over $15.00 a share now. Are you selling all, or will you hang in there a little longer. Ifthe answer is hang in there a little longer, then you must also believe the I fund will go higher.;)
Effective at the end of today:
15G
20C
50S
15I
Check out the article I posted in the "More on the I fund" thread. It points out some very interesting information that I think anyone currently holding shares in the I fund ought to read. The gist of it is each time there's a flood of cash going into the overseas markets (as there is now), those markets tend to drop ~4+% in the following 3 months. That's not good.
So, with that said, I'm reducing my exposure to the I fund. The fact that it went over $15 per share again made the decision a lot easier. I'll likely unload my remaining shares in the I fund on the next big up day or shortly thereafter.
Effective at the end of today:
100 G
I'm locking in my profits. I also think the market will pullback some, and I want to take advantage of that if it happens. If not, I'll just merely buy back in next week and ride the market 'til year's end.
Effective today:
40C
60S
C fund went up $0.01 after I sold it, and the S fell $0.07. Hopefully, today will be relatively flat.
The two funds are neck-and-neck this month in gains, so I'm hedging my bets here. I'm going to avoid the I fund 'til it corrects... probably.
Mike wrote: Effective today:
40C
60S
Did you put this order in yesterday for today???
If so, just wondering why you didn't post this yesterday:
Effective tomorrow:
40C
60S
Wedon't want you leaving us in the dust, now!:D
No, it was for the end of today... as usual, a day late and a dollar short on my end.
Mike wrote: No, it was for the end of today... as usual, a day late and a dollar short on my end.
Shame on you!!!:P
:D:^:D
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on... shame on... can't get fooled again. :^
Mike wrote: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on... shame on... can't get fooled again. :^
:D
Happy Christmas, Mike!:^
I'm continuing to hold my 40 C / 60 S allocation. The I fund has once again joined the party with big gains in the past few days. There are now serious rumblings out of Japan regarding an intervention to stop the slide of the Dollar v. the Yen, though.
The S fund continues to look better than the C, but it also shows its trademark volatility at times.
30 C, 40 S, 30 I at the close of today's trading.
Will be pluggin' for you Mikehttp://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_13_10.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_13_9.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_13_11.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_16_1.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
S and C climbed a bit, though not as much as I would've liked, and I fell due to the continuing dollar rally. All in all, not a bad move (yet). :^
pyriel
01-07-2005, 10:45 AM
Mike wrote: S and C climbed a bit, though not as much as I would've liked, and I fell due to the continuing dollar rally. All in all, not a bad move (yet). :^I'm really beginning to think of that I for Monday. Hmmmm...
Well, the jobs report was mixed, which will calm fears of inflation and a more aggressive federal reserve policy - this will hurt the dollar and help the I fund.
US markets are down a bit right now, but they could easily finish up on the day (have been both in positive and negative territory thus far, but not moving much either way).
I am contemplating lightening up some more on the S fund, but I may just sit tight for a day. I'll figure something out in the next hour.
35C, 30S, 35I at COB today.
The dollar went down, then back up. Our stock market went up, then down, then up.
If I make any transfers next week, they will likely be going to G.
Safetyguy
01-07-2005, 06:21 PM
Mike wrote: 35C, 30S, 35I at COB today.
The dollar went down, then back up. Our stock market went up, then down, then up.
If I make any transfers next week, they will likely be going to G.
Free advice (for what it is worth)
You went from 30 C, 40 S, 30 I to 35C, 30S, 35I
This isn't a major shift.You could get hurt if you catch a weird fluctuation day where say the S is down but the C is up, so you end up buying your losses.
Just my opinion...
It's incremental (and I'm not buying back into S). I went from 60S to 40S to 30S. I don't like the long-term prospects of the S fund in a rising interest rate environment. However, I don't want to dump S entirely so soon after it shed so much value. I'm not moving any more out of S until I get a significant up day to bail on it completely.
Mike wrote: However, I don't want to dump S entirely so soon after it shed so much value. I'm not moving any more out of S until I get a significant up day to bail on it completely.
I agree. That's why I kept 40% in (S).
pyriel
01-07-2005, 11:50 PM
Mike wrote: It's incremental (and I'm not buying back into S). I went from 60S to 40S to 30S. I don't like the long-term prospects of the S fund in a rising interest rate environment. However, I don't want to dump S entirely so soon after it shed so much value. I'm not moving any more out of S until I get a significant up day to bail on it completely. One or two up is good enough for me especially if there is a light at the end of the tunnel in I. I hope to be fully in place when I starts to come back. I will most likely will not be moving again for awhile since the outlook for I seems promising.
I don't get it. Why stay in while the market drops? Let me guess, you guys are young and not much to lose?
I don't know about them, but preservation is not my goal with a 40 year horizon. :^
pyriel
01-08-2005, 05:30 AM
Mike wrote: I don't know about them, but preservation is not my goal with a 40 year horizon. :^
I have 23 years before I turn 60 but will retire in 11 years. Real estate is my main effort for retirement. I am currently receiving 3.5K positive income per month which goes into my pocket. I still need 6.5K positive income per month to reach my goal of 10K per month when I retire.I know my goal is achievable since it only took me two years to reachthe 3.5k positive income per monththat I am now receiving and hopfully, for the rest of my life. I'll be receiving 50% of my military paywhen i'm 48. I believe,I have time in my side.
I am currently managing mytwo TSP accounts. Mine and my wife's. My wife's account is much larger than mineand she is 35c 35s 30i.Her's will be long term with reallocation happening only oncein a blue moon. My account is still quite small so I am using this to kind of test the water and learn if my moves are substantiated. AsI said earlier, Iwillnot be moving for awhile and will wait for the I fund to go up. Buyinglow and selling high later is my goal. :P
Actually, I doubt I'll ever fully retire. Once I have a few million sitting there, I'll just draw back to 1/2 time and then draw down the accounts to supplement my work income. :^
I'd be too bored not working at all.
Mike wrote: I pretty much ignore seasonality charts. I prefer to pay attention to interest rates and the overall state of the economy.
Mike,
While the technicals discussed here are excellent, I'd suggest that you also pick up a copy of the Stock Trader's Almanac by Yale Hirsch. I think you might find it enlightening. It might help to give you more of a seasonal perspective.I was shocked to find that simply making one trade per year (e.g. C fund Nov-Apr, G fund May-Oct rather than C fund all year) would have made a huge difference in your overall return.$10,000 invested in 1950 grew to $451,000 by 2002 (52 years) during the Oct to April months. However, that same $10,000invested in 1950 actually declined by $1,625 during the 52 year May to Sept period. Something to consider. :D
Mike wrote: Actually, I doubt I'll ever fully retire. Once I have a few million sitting there, I'll just draw back to 1/2 time and then draw down the accounts to supplement my work income. :^
I'd be too bored not working at all.
Can I keep this quote till you get older? I said the same thing! Now I can't wait to retire. Will never have enough $. Kids always want more. Not bored at all! 180 degree change. Wow! A new prospective! Rgds ;) Spaf
Kids aren't in the cards (need a steady girlfriend first... heh). As long as that's the case, I don't have sponges taking their desired portion of my hard-earned moolah. :^
Save the quote if you like. If I live another 40 years, you can hold it against me then (or have your next of kin hold it against me). :P
Thanks for the tip, Sarah - and I probably should've clarified - I don't pay attention to the day-to-day seasonality (especially after what just happened in the historically good first week of January). However, I did learn on this site a few weeks ago that yes, the semi-annual approach appears to have a big advantage over being in the market the entire time. October-March is best, while the part in between doesn't do so well (this was especially true in 2004). Is that publication available on-line somewhere?
Mike wrote:
Is that publication available on-line somewhere?
www.stocktradersalmanac.com (http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com)
Lots of data, charts, and interesting ideas to work with.... It comes out annually (since its an almanac). I've gotten it for a few years now and find it to be worth the cost...:u
Are you and the almanac a package deal? :D
(Sorry, I just couldn't resist!)
I'll have to take a look at it sometime. :^
30G
30C
20S
20I
End of today...
Banking some of this market recovery as a hedge.
100G at the end of today.
You've really been 100% G thru this rally? Why? All the equities are above their 50 day MAs.
Waiting to see if we will make the higher high or fall short and drop.
Mike wrote: Waiting to see if we will make the higher high or fall short and drop.
Mike....Why didn't you tell Saraho about the TSPTolerance Test?
TSP participants have Toast Retrieving Risk Tolerance.
The test is:
Low risk: Folks wait for toast to pop up even though it's burning.
Moderate risk: Folks go after toast with wooden spoon.
High risk: Goes after toast with a metal butter knife.
For some of us low risk folks, we will try the toaster anutter day.
Rgds :D Spaf
I'm also a little wary after what happened in January. I do not want the rug yanked out from beneath me while I'm 100% invested again. :shock:
Dave M
02-12-2005, 07:35 PM
I'm with you. Mike. So far I have forfeited onlymodest gains by being100G for the last couple weeks. I have discovered during this time I am highly averse to risk! Every time I seea little gain in the S&P, I consider moving in but then that little voice starts whispering...:)
Last year was darn good and right now I am simply protecting those gains. Say, I lived in St Paul for many years; how's it going up there?
Eh, it's going. Definitely not the most fearsome winter I've seen. :P
saraho wrote: You've really been 100% G thru this rally? Why? All the equities are above their 50 day MAs.
What rally?
For the week S&P wasup 3and the NAS was down 10.
How quickly you forget and how quickly you forgot January?
Greenspan is talking on the hill next week...risk/reward.
The Spaf special...smart money buys on good news and sells on the bad, the market has been been buying if the news was NOT that bad. This is the buy on dipmotley cruefrom Feb 2000 that quickly forgot what a down market feels like.
The most important index to the market the NAS is way under its 50DMA.
So goes the NAS it drags the other with it up or down....don't be a clown :shock:. This chart does not look like any shape or form to be a rally...this is the suck ya in on Friday spit ya out on Monday game.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=^IXIC
Dave M wrote: I'm with you. Mike. So far I have forfeited onlymodest gains by being100G for the last couple weeks. I have discovered during this time I am highly averse to risk! Every time I seea little gain in the S&P, I consider moving in but then that little voice starts whispering...:)
Last year was darn good and right now I am simply protecting those gains. Say, I lived in St Paul for many years; how's it going up there?
Dave,
Listen to that little voice it is called common sense...your first reaction is called need and greed...and that never works out. Looking forward to the posts on here when accounts have fallen 20%. Not going to say I told you so...just going to say....Hey you only need to be up 40% to be back to even...40% should only take you about, hmmm.....4.5 years to get back to where you are now....hang in there. That "rally" - that got the week back to EVEN was calling ya huh? Do not get sucked in...not to sure where the reality is....Tekno, Sarah, Spah, etc, etc...the week was flat...you are all screaming bulls after Friday...be freaking careful. THE WEEK WAS FLAT.
:D
Montana
02-13-2005, 04:55 AM
Depends on which funds you are in and which days. One of the funds is always making money or at least breaking even. Play the percentages. :^
Montana wrote: Depends on which funds you are in and which days. One of the funds is always making money or at least breaking even. Play the percentages. :^Oh boy - tell me it is not 2000 again???...this is not a stock market anymore it is a casino...everyone thinks the next pull they will get rich...not this kid...me going short...me going hard....me going deep...Apple watch continues....
Don't hijack my account talk with your bearish sentiment.
-The Management-
:P
Sorry Mike...everyone I talk to is screaming bullish...ya got to make money...it all ways goes up (hmm) the market....when I got to vegas I all ways win...the one that got a away....
Have a great day champ...keep up on the prowel for that internet date!!! I am 5'11, 133 pounds, 36-22-34, 20yr with blonde hair and blue eyes = 5'3" 245 kilos, 36-46-55 - :) with four kids. Montanawe know trees go to theskybut the market has been range bound (get it haha) for over five years now...it is over extended and is going to get choppeddown (get it ha ha)....
Montana
02-13-2005, 05:43 AM
5 years huh? If I listened to you I would have missed out on over 60% return overall in all my investments in 03 and 14% last year. You keep screeming "BEAR" and you're gonna get it right about every 2 1/2 years. Go hide in your cave and watch me count my money. $$$$$$$$$$ (Its a joke, don't get grumpy on me) :D
OK fax man...
average gain in a bull market is 55.7
average bull run last 26 months
Historic fax (sarah) would say we are over extended..that why I made that comment...
I am not bearish because I want to be I am bearish because I need to be...keep thinking trees grow to the sky in big sky (get it ha ha).
Ok got to run...got to pop into a internet date....:D
Pat_1111 wrote: OK fax man...
average gain in a bull market is 55.7
average bull run last 26 months
Historic fax (sarah) would say we are over extended..that why I made that comment...
I am not bearish because I want to be I am bearish because I need to be...keep thinking trees grow to the sky in big sky (get it ha ha).
Ok got to run...got to pop into a internet date....:D
Did you take this nic after a Sat. Night Live character.....................now I get it!
namor
02-13-2005, 04:20 PM
Pat_1111 wrote: this is not a stock market anymore it is a casino...everyone thinks the next pull they will get rich...
If it's a casino then I am in my environment. Except for the slot machine reference. If you want to lose money, play slots. Otherwise, use your resources to gather the informationto play wiggles correctly and you can do well.
Good luck in your investments.
Mike wrote: I'm also a little wary after what happened in January. I do not want the rug yanked out from beneath me while I'm 100% invested again. :shock:
I agree, but with the ability to switch each day, you have some flexibility...
I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction. If I'm forced into making more than one move per week, something is wrong with my approach.
Mike wrote: I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction. If I'm forced into making more than one move per week, something is wrong with my approach.
I agree. And if I could only make 4 switches in a year, I'd probably be in 100% G also. But with all the equities being above their 50 day MAs, and with the ability to switch daily, it sure seems quite conservative to be 100%G in this scenario.
I'm waiting for confirmation one way or the other. I see no real point in putting everything at risk for what could amount to nothing more than a downward trending trading range... or worse yet, a failed attempt at a higher high followed by a steep decline.
I'm much more concerned about downside risk right now than missing out on a small uptick that is short-lived. The market only moved 0.2% (S&P) above where it finished the previous Friday when I sold. As much as some want to be excited about this past week, all things considered, I'd say it looked pretty sideways to me. Maybe we'll break out, maybe we won't - but we are no closer to that high now than we were a week ago.
You ought to backtest your "higher high" scenario and see what it would have gotten you in past years...
Mike wrote: I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction.
Me too.
saraho wrote: Mike wrote: I have seen a strong correlation between the number of moves I make and the return on my account going in the opposite direction. If I'm forced into making more than one move per week, something is wrong with my approach.
I agree. And if I could only make 4 switches in a year, I'd probably be in 100% G also. But with all the equities being above their 50 day MAs, and with the ability to switch daily, it sure seems quite conservative to be 100%G in this scenario.
Reread what Mike said. I think you DISAGREE with what he said.
greg wrote:
Reread what Mike said. I think you DISAGREE with what he said.
*Sigh* Greg,you don't understand.
I agreed with what Mike said. I think the more switches, the less productive they are. I also think that the less switching the better. HOWEVER, the fact that you are allowed to switcheach daygives you certain flexibility that you would nototherwise have. As a result,you would switch atdifferent times.
saraho wrote: You ought to backtest your "higher high" scenario and see what it would have gotten you in past years...
I don't agree with the concept of backtesting. The underlying assumption of doing that is the previous market conditions are being repeated, thus you can say "this approach has a ___% chance of giving me a good return".
I don't see this situation as terribly bullish. Past earnings have been generally strong, but the market looks to the future - and that future will likely feature more modest earnings, rising interest rates, a continuing large trade deficit, a continuing large budget deficit, and perhaps a military conflict with Iran over its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. Oh yeah, oil prices are also high. The only thing going for us right now is steady 3-4% economic growth. Will that and slowing earnings growth be sufficient to overcome the rest? That's the battle being fought in the market right now.
I pulled the trigger today to get back in and hedged 50-50 between C and I. The EAFE was down about 0.5% and the dollar is up a bit, which is likely to create a buying opportunity of sorts in the "up, up, and away" I fund.
My play on the C fund is based on my belief that the jobs report will come in positively tomorrow. The weekly numbers of those filing for unemployment benefits have been coming in quite low over the past month. I think the last one was the lowest we've seen since 2000.
I think a piece of good news from a closely watched jobs report is all it will take to bump us out of this trading range. :^
Mike wrote: I think a piece of good news from a closely watched jobs report is all it will take to bump us out of this trading range. :^
Ditto!
Mike wrote: My play on the C fund is based on my belief that the jobs report will come in positively tomorrow.
Job report is on Friday. Tomorrow is Productivity, Intitial Claims and ISM.
The job report is not a shue in. Lots of M&A = lots of job losses. Just do not know when they will start reflecting in the monthly reports. I believe MCI came out today and said they would cut 3K and Marshall said they would cut 5K. I am not following that to close so do not quote me. I would rather be out of the market on job reports for here until the M&A activity are flushed out.
Just my .02. Do what you think is best. Do not want to get into a bash feast just want to point out things that happened in the past. :D
pyriel
03-03-2005, 01:25 AM
Dr_Dubious wrote: Mike wrote: My play on the C fund is based on my belief that the jobs report will come in positively tomorrow.
Job report is on Friday. Tomorrow is Productivity, Intitial Claims and ISM.
I would rather be out of the market on job reports for here until the M&A activity are flushed out.
Might be a good buying opportunity for Friday then?
Py sorry for posting in your account...sorry again. You hit a cord. Taking 30 minutes to do a 20 second transaction is a little much...especially when the deadline is fast approaching...the Mission Impossible music was in my head at the end :P.
The pattern is Friday rally, first day of week BIG SELL off. So I would recommend if the job report comes in good go 100% I (like I will - LOL) and hope to catch the rally in the international markets then go back to G again for Monday. That trade balance report is going to be a black eye - IMHO.
Look to buy into the trade balance report on the 11 because Expiriration Monday 14th is about the surest thing we are going to get. Of course with this market, 10 minutes from now I may be doing a 180 or 360 or 480.
Once again I am sorry for posting in your account...
pyriel
03-03-2005, 04:52 AM
Dr. D, Don't worry about it:D. Sounds like a good advice which is similar to what I amthinking.Thank you.
Thanks for being open minded. Of course do what you believe is best. The good thing about being in G fund Friday morning is you have some flexibility. The report comes in bad you are hunkered down, if the report is good then you can go to the I fund. However, the market is not reacting to the news. I got screwed on this in Germany this week. The job report came in the worse in their history and the market rallied. So I am kind of :h.
Now the worry we got crude in the futures at 53.75. Not sure when that starts to weigh on the markets. But it can not help. Just hoping it waits for one day. Presently 100% in I.
We will be seeing 64 this winter. Futures contracts??? :D
Tomorrow is my Friday, so :P.
http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm
I'm watching the claims as well as the payroll report.
Happy Hunting. All economic reports are important...that is a sign of a market that is on its heels, topping, hurting, etc.
I would watch crude also. I can not get to my futures board (there must be lots of people watch - nervous too). But the last I was able to get on it was heading to 54.
Well Asian did ok. Going to pack it in to play CAPT Kirk over my shorts. Got 95 locked and loaded into the system.
Have a good day. Happy weekend and all that jazz (horrible movie by the way).
tennisguy
03-03-2005, 09:14 AM
I don't get it? If the job report is good then go to the I fund on Friday. When you mention "good" does that means positive job report?
Currently 50c 50s is this a good place to be before fridays job report.
Thanks
Tennisguy
Some like to go to the I fund the day a good report comes out - because the US market takes off (giving you gains on Friday), then the international markets *tend* to take off the next trading day in response to our own markets.
tennisguy
03-03-2005, 11:43 AM
Thanks for explaining. I will be watching to see what happens
Tennisguy
Big Mac
03-03-2005, 12:13 PM
saraho are you a night shifter too?
What do you think of the F right now?
Sarah no longer posts here.
Mike wrote: I pulled the trigger today to get back in and hedged 50-50 between C and I.
I am rooting for ya!
IBD Fan
03-04-2005, 07:44 AM
Mike wrote: Sarah no longer posts here.
Where is saraho - I miss her.
IBD Fan wrote: Mike wrote: Sarah no longer posts here.
Where is saraho - I miss her.
She never existed. She was one of MT's alter egos...;)
IBD Fan
03-04-2005, 08:57 AM
Just like a married couple??
I'm going with my contrarian thinking and am selling into the strength. Oil prices are dropping a bit thus far today, but remain over $50. Any jitters in that area could trigger a quick sell-off in the markets - which is forcing me to approach this more in an oscillation mode than a "we're going to take off into the stratosphere" bull mode. So, I'm going to bank what *should* be solid gains since I entered earlier this week.
At the end of today, I will be 100 G.
neirbod
03-04-2005, 04:20 PM
Mike wrote: ...At the end of today, I will be 100 G.
I just did the same thing, going from 100 I to 100 G for Monday. I hate to think I may be missing out on part of a rally, but there are just too many uncertainties, and the market is too jittery, for me not to lock in my gains today. That being said, if there is a significant dip on Monday, I'll probably jump right back in.
Any idea why Saraho doesn't post anymore? I always appreciated her insights on the I fund and the dollar.
She wasn't happywith how Tom dealt with the MT issue.
On an unrelated note, it appears the TSP gov site worked fine today. I got my request in very quickly.
namor
03-04-2005, 04:58 PM
MT wasn't the only issue.
She asked a member to stop treating her in a certain way, and nothing was done about it.
I don't blame her a bit for leaving.
Mike wrote:
At the end of today, I will be 100 G.
Great smash and grab. This is all most like a relief rally on the job numbers. However, with the record M&As the future job reports numbers are not looking so bright. The dollar getting crushed/oil still over $53 is also some strong headwinds.
Great move. I hedged a good job report buy selling foreign currencies...that was freaking stupid. But your move was well planned.
namor wrote: MT wasn't the only issue.
She asked a member to stop treating her in a certain way, and nothing was done about it.
I don't blame her a bit for leaving.
I guess that just about makes it an all-male board again.
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/15/15_1_130.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/18/18_2_100v.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/18/18_1_106.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/7/7_15_1.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/14_1_35.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/10/10_17_203.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
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http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/7/7_4_13.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
[/url][url=http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN]http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/15/15_1_54v.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
grandma
03-04-2005, 08:01 PM
W_W: I guess that just about makes it an all-male board again.
Good heavens, W_W!! Let's hope not !! They would be missing a great deal of forced introspection!!! I was hoping Saraho was on sabbatical - I do continue to look to see if you have added anything each day also -
Stay with us/me --grandma
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_1_213.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN) Just the facts ma'm....http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/3/3_2_107.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_9_12.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)I apologize Mike for usingyour Account Talk to f/u on this.
vectorman
03-08-2005, 04:52 PM
What do you think Mike? !10 minutes left, are you going to try another snatch and grab???
With the dollar breaking down already, I'm not likely to make a play on the I fund ahead of the report due out Friday (unlikely to see much of a buying opportunity)... unless we see some sort of major reversal to the upside in the dollar tomorrow.
Depending on what the S&P does today/tomorrow, I may buy in and then promptly sell on Friday when the TSP money flows in. I'll play that one by ear, though. With today being down about as much as yesterday was up, we're falling back toward where we ended on Friday... which could be a sign that we are merely establishing another trading range (albeit at a higher level than before).
S&P is dropping again... with that, I'm sticking to my guns and am going 100C today. TSP money is coming into the market tomorrow, and I suspect a few bargain hunters will start snapping up some shares. If not, I can always bail and cut my losses.
vectorman
03-10-2005, 04:35 PM
Mike wrote: S&P is dropping again... with that, I'm sticking to my guns and am going 100C today. TSP money is coming into the market tomorrow, and I suspect a few bargain hunters will start snapping up some shares. If not, I can always bail and cut my losses.
Hi Mike,do you always go all or nothing? Do you sometimes diversify or hedge alittlein times of uncertainty? Thanks
vectorman
03-11-2005, 04:18 PM
vectorman wrote: Mike wrote: S&P is dropping again... with that, I'm sticking to my guns and am going 100C today. TSP money is coming into the market tomorrow, and I suspect a few bargain hunters will start snapping up some shares. If not, I can always bail and cut my losses.
Hi Mike,do you always go all or nothing? Do you sometimes diversify or hedge alittlein times of uncertainty? ThanksMike , if TSP money is coming in today and theS&P closes down, do you think Monday might be good for the C fund?
I diversify at times, yes. The last move was 50C / 50I ahead of the jobs report.
This time, I was a day ahead... went in the day I saw red and thought the market would be down (but then it moved up a bit late), and yesterday, it just went down on oil and the trade report. Ugh.
We may see a bump monday... don't know, though. A lot is hinging on oil... if it doesn't start pulling back soon, we could be in real trouble. $55 oil does not sit well with the market - I know the reports are saying the trade imbalance is what caused the S&P drop on Friday, but I'm pretty darn sure it was oil's rise above $55 that did it...(though the two are a bit related, since the dollar dropped a bit which in turn helped push oil up).
How's that for a mish-mash of analysis? :P
Big news coming next week... stay tuned. :shock:
Due to a number of factors that I won't bore people with here, I am switching my approach to asset allocation. I will only adjust this according to large-scale events, such as recessions / large scale terrorist attacks / major wars (not to diminish the significance of fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan, mind you - but I'm talking about conflicts that would likely disrupt the global economy, such as one with China over the Taiwan issue).
At any rate, this is the allocation I have settled on, effective COB Friday:
50 C
30 S
20 I
My contributions are set to match this as well.
If you see a new post by me in my account thread, you'll know that I believe something big is happening. Good luck, all.
I just made it in before the cut-off.
I slashed all my equities holdings in half to 25 C / 15 S / 10 I.
My intuition is acting up right now... the Chicago manufacturing data came in much weaker than expected yesterday, triggering a minor sell-off. Today, the ISM data came in below expectations, confirming yesterday's Chicago data - and it's triggering a buying spree. I know that an article on the CNN site is saying that it's due to relief that the Fed will slow rate hikes... but I'm beginning to think the analysis in many of these articles is bogus. :shock:
Mainly, what I'm getting at here is I don't trust irrational investor behavior. Today's big move up could very well be "the herd" that Tom is alluding to. What that means is we are probably going to see a pullback very soon, and a formation of a new trading range. So, I have decided to get defensive. I'm not totally out of the market (and basically can't be due to where my Roth money is :P), though - because we might have a few more days left in the rally. But the economic data is telling me the end of it may come sooner than later.
I still have 25%C / 15% S... I sold my 10% I fund stake today.
I also moved 60% into the F fund. I think the payroll report will come in a bit under expectations, and that could spark a bond market rally.
Indeed, the report came in under expectations - WAY under. :shock:
COB today:
60 F
40 G
I'm not messing around with a pullback looming.
100 G at the end of today.
Maybe I'll be fortunate and the bond market will rally before the day's end - it's basically flat right now.
I'm still expecting a pullback to come shortly.
mlk_man
06-08-2005, 04:52 PM
Hey, get back here with my F!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:P
pyriel
06-08-2005, 05:03 PM
Come on Mike, you said you hate the g fund... What the F?:P
I do hate the G-fund... but with 10 year yields bottoming out, I really don't see how the F fund can do very well going forward (unless the economy just tanks and goes into a recession). It's incredibly difficult to make any money while being defensive.
I'm continuing to wait on the market - the economic data was worsening for awhile but has since reversed somewhat and is more positive now with better manufacturing data. Payroll data comes out Friday, which is of course big. In the meantime, I'm watching to see what happens on the technical side - 1190 support continues to hold, but the C fund was darn near completely flat in June.
You'll note the FOMC said nothing about slowing conditions in the economy like they did in May... perhaps that's foreshadowing a good payroll report. If the S&P continues to bounce around 1190 all week, I may move a limited amount into the market and play the payroll report and "sell the news" Friday.
The terrorist attack has changed things a bit. Looking back at past market performance when under stress from an event such as the one that took place in London, I've noticed that a sell-off has commenced in equities (no big surprise there). A bottom was reached in ~ 5 days. After the 9/11 attacks, the S&P fell over 100 points, but it then recovered within a matter of weeks as it rallied to end the year. Last year, after the bombings in Spain (took place in March), the S&P promptly shed ~4 1/2% in value. This would bring today's S&P down to about 1140, very close to the 2005 low. This happened very quickly, just like it did after 9/11.
Given the fact that bonds tend to move opposite stocks, I'm going to speculate a bit and move 50% into the F fund today to try to catch (what's likely to be) a short-lived rally in the bond market. June's payroll numbers are coming out tomorrow, as well. I don't know how much the market will pay attention to that after the attack on Britain, but another weak jobs report would probably fuel a continued bond rally.
In any case, I think I'll bail out of bonds sometime next week as equities find their support level and bounce off that.
50 G / 50 F effective today... feel free to check out the SPX charts I posted in the "market talk" thread. They show what has happened in the past under similar circumstances.
Looks like cooler heads have prevailed in the US market... which actually gained value yesterday. :shock:
The S&P broke below 1190 support (even though it wound up higher on the day), so that's something to consider going forward. Basically, it widened the trading range. Whether or not the market slides slowly downward over a month or two like last year or plunges and then rallies ala 1994 remains to be seen, though.
Hopefully my F fund play will pan out. G fund is boring me to death. :P
I am now changing strategy a bit and am looking at ~1190 on the S&P as an entry point. I believe we are now seeing a divergence with the 1994 chart - which featured a swift downward movement followed by a prolonged rally. We've had a few pushes to the downside, but the market has reversed itself and moved right back up later on. The S&P fell into the 1180's on the day of the London bombings, but it has recovered nicely and is approaching the year's high again.
With the hurricane and oil prices so high, I don't see how or why it would break out past that high and expect it to hit the resistance in the 1120's and drop back down again. When/if this drop back down happens, I'm hoping the bond market moves up a bit and I recoup that two cent loss and then some.
tsptalk
09-01-2007, 07:14 PM
Happy Birthday Mike, wherever you are! I have a feeling you'll be partying it up pretty good tonight celebrating the big 29.
nnuut
09-01-2007, 08:37 PM
Yeah, Happy Birthday Mike!!! hic!:D
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