Transfer 9/30 for 10/01/04

[tsptalk]

As promised, I am going to move to a 100% stock fund allocation today which will be effective Friday. My new allocation will be 50% S, 50% I fund.

I apologize if I haven't replied to messages the last day or two. I just haven't had time to read the board. HopefullyI will get a chance to catch up soon.

Thanks,
Tom

[Spaf]

Hey Tom!

YTD the S & I funds are close. However MTD, WTD the S is out performing the I fund. Why go 50-50?

[Cinderella]

Spaf wrote:
Hey Tom!

YTD the S & I funds are close.Â* However MTD, WTD the S is out performing the I fund.Â* Why go 50-50?


You might read Tom's Market Comments on 9/29/04. He mentions the G-7 meeting and how the I fund could be effected.

[puertorico]

I'mthingking about it...;)

I may put something in stock ...:^

Give me a motive to do it ... :DI want to jump to stock :D

The season chart look good to me...:D

[Spaf]

Yeh C

My response was a question of why 50/50 when the indicators favored the S fund? No big disagreement! Ain't got a crystal ball, ??? Just askin!

[tsptalk]

Spaf wrote: YTD the S & I funds are close. However MTD, WTD the S is out performing the I fund. Why go 50-50?

Strickly G7 and being aggressive. I don't look at what funds have done better but rather which I think will do better. I guess I need a better way to do that, or a better way to explain that.

Good luck!
Tom

[TheProphet]

Tom. Spaf, Cowboy, other TSPTalk comunity members...

I also moved into the stock today... My choice was...100% C Fund...

because the 25 years compressed one year chart indique me that the

C Fund perfoms better than the S Fund on the month of October...

more... at my free webpage...

http://www.geocities.com/earn100kplus/TSP.html?1096555577546

I wish I could itmove onMonday 27th of September... but no way I could it know it

then yet...

Leon

[cowboy]

I think the market has hit its highs already for the day. I'm not that excited about this yet. I was hoping for a bounce off the sell off of the F fund yesterday and I thought it went down further than they posted it at. I'm going to stay F and maybe go back to G tomorrow. Good luck to everyone! Monday was a play day and now market may sell off.

[tsptalk]

I really liked Thursday's action (what a shocker). We stayed above Wednesday's lows and made a higher high, closing in the middle. Merck killed the Dow otherwise the market did well as a whole considering. I still see the coil getting ready to spring up. :)

[Spaf]

Tom

I love coils! E-mail me any you have left over!

Merck might have pulled down the DJIA. But supprisingly my (other) mutual funds reported a gain. I didn't have any Merck stock! I guess diversification worked!

I hope you have your "Seasonality Chart" tucked under your pillow tonight!

Rgds. Spaf ;)

[Mike]

I love these up days... so much for the last two days of september being weak trading days. :D

(Based on how July and September turned out, I think I'll start ignoring the historical data on monthly trading). :P

[TheProphet]

Tom,

Any Market Comments Word of Wisdom ?

Please Advise...

Have a Great Weekend,

Leon

[tsptalk]

Sorry Leon. I'm not "allowed" to go to my site during the day. Got in trouble at work. I'm still liking things. The coil is starting to unwind. :^

[tsptalk]

Spaf wrote: Tom

I love coils! E-mail me any you have left over!

Did you get the coil I sent Friday? It was a 1.5% one. ;)

[Dakota]

i went 25g 25c 25s 25i does this mean i'm not aggressive enough. made good money friday

[Dakota]

what is the G7 I'm from sterling oklahoma

[tsptalk]

Dakota wrote: i went 25g 25c 25s 25i does this mean i'm not aggressive enough. made good money friday
Welcome Dakota!

It depends on so many variables. If you are a buy and holder, meaning you will stay in that allocation indefinately, then I would say you are on the moderate side. Any more in G and you'd be getting conservative. Any less you'd be getting aggressive.

I have some suggested allocations at the bottom of www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html) you can use as a guide. You can adjust as needed.

Thanks,
Tom

[tsptalk]

Dakota wrote: what is the G7 I'm from sterling oklahoma
BasicallyG7 is a group represented by seven nations that meet periodically to discuss the global economy and currencies. Unfortunately, that is about the extent of my knowledge on that.

I'm sure someone else out there has better information.

[puertorico]

tsptalk wrote: As promised, I am going to move to a 100% stock fund allocation today which will be effective Friday. My new allocation will be 50% S, 50% I fund.

I apologize if I haven't replied to messages the last day or two. I just haven't had time to read the board. HopefullyI will get a chance to catch up soon.

Thanks,
Tom
"October is a bad month with the biggest fall in history"

but in elecction years has better average...:D

Good call friday,1st, Tom...:^

[smine]

Yes, Tom thanks. I had been trying to get in somwhere; have G25 C25 S25 I25 and did well Friday.

[Dakota]

Thanks, This is getting good. I'm Ok. I just started paying attention lately, after I found this site by accident. I hope I'm learning. Kind of shy, It takes me a good look and a thought, but I have deciced to become a little more aggressive, quicker.

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote: "October is a bad month with the biggest fall in history"

but in elecction years has better average...:D


Actually October isn't too bad historically. It just gets a bad rap because of the two major crashes (1929 and 1987). Take those two years out of the picture and things look even better.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/s&pavgmonthreturn.gif
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com (http://www.sentimentrader.com)

[puertorico]

Nice chart

wAo nov-dec-jan we must be in...:D

tsptalk wrote: puertorico wrote: "October is a bad month with the biggest fall in history"

but in elecction years has better average...:D


Actually October isn't too bad historically. It just gets a bad rap because of the two major crashes (1929 and 1987). Take those two years out of the picture and things look even better.

Keep in mind, Sept. was up close to 4% this year......

[tsptalk]

And July was down. Hmmm. Maybe we should be doing the opposite? :shock:

[Dakota]

cowboy you a sooner, If you don't mind me asking where from?

[TheProphet]

Buy in Halloween sell in April Fool... :^

[TheProphet]

Trend wise speaking there are six good months and six bad months... their begining and ends are adjusted by the MACD indicator... the Stocktraders almanac just trigger the begining of the best six months... they usually go from Halloween to April Fool... they had star as soon as September and ended as late as July... I profit from it... :^

[FundSurfer]

Tom,

Change your S index to ^dwcpf on your link to yahoo on the front page. ^dwcp isn't reporting and ^dwcpf is. Also, TSP uses ^dwcpf anyway....see discussion in S-fund.

[tsptalk]

OK, thanks!

[TheProphet]

Thank you... Good Eagle Eyes... :^

[beaverlaker]

Tom, I'm riding with you.

[tsptalk]

It may be a bumpy ride beaver. Welcome aboard!

mlk_man wrote: tsptalk wrote: puertorico wrote: "October is a bad month with the biggest fall in history"

but in elecction years has better average...:D


Actually October isn't too bad historically. It just gets a bad rap because of the two major crashes (1929 and 1987). Take those two years out of the picture and things look even better.

Keep in mind, Sept. was up close to 4% this year......So what did we call Oct.? A push?

[Mike]

Just about all of my gains this year were made in October. :^

Mike wrote: Just about all of my gains this year were made in October. :^I would of made 4.55% for the month with the new system. Buy and hold for the S was 1.85%. Half the month went up, half went down. Just curious how others did. Pretty good indicator for all of 2004..............

Not sure if you are inquiring only of those who post their accounts but I just broke out even.

Wonder Woman wrote: Not sure if you are inquiring only of those who post their accounts but I just broke out even.
I was inquiring of any or all, I'm atrusting fool........:shock:

Thx W_W,

M_M

[smedlap]

Hi Mike. Just back. 5.51% for November alone so far. My system! I'm happy. Could have done better if I had played the I fund more. Yesterday was my biggest day loss of 3 days as I stupidy did not bring my computer when I left on Saturday. Then again, one has to have fun!You guys are great. I missed you all abeit just a 15 minute withdrawal!

[smine]

Whoever told us told us to go to CNN.com and look at world markets has me doing just that. All the world markets were down arrows yesterday, so I went 30%; today they are all up and a good amount was made. Following my own advise, I stayed big time in S and dumped C for I. Did well; now retreating 70% to G to count my money. Never had this much in TSP!:^

[tsptalk]

smine wrote: Whoever told us told us to go to CNN.com and look at world markets has me doing just that. All the world markets were down arrows yesterday, so I went 30%; today they are all up and a good amount was made. Following my own advise, I stayed big time in S and dumped C for I. Did well; now retreating 70% to G to count my money. Never had this much in TSP!:^
I hate to call it fun, but it is to me also. :) When you can make gains in a month, like smedlap has in November, that some folks who sit in the G fund make in a year, that is fun. But we know the market doesn't always go up and that the G fund plays a role in our strategy when the time is right.

Just remember the market does like to humble us just when we are feeling the most confident. :shock:

[vectorman]

Tom, Will it be mostly green arrows during the bull mkt? How will the G fund play that role you were talking about? This is my first bull market and I don't know how to make full use of it, help! I also left a couple of questions at the new member site, Thanks

[tsptalk]

vectorman wrote: Tom, Will it be mostly green arrows during the bull mkt? How will the G fund play that role you were talking about? This is my first bull market and I don't know how to make full use of it, help! I also left a couple of questions at the new member site, Thanks
During a bull market the trend is up. The market still breathes (goes up and down) but it should be higher down the road. You can have real bad days during bull markets. It's usually not just easy money. Just when things look their worst is when things will get better. And when everything looks peachy and the money is being made easily, the market will pull the rug out from under you.

Getting in and out, or timing the market, is more of a battle against yourself than the market. You sometimes have to fight the obvious urge and go against the majority.

If you made a ton of money and it seems like the market is never going to go down, it probably will. That's when you want to hide in the G fund for a bit. If the market is falling like a rock and you think to yourself,this is nuts, I'm never putting money in stocks again, that is when the market will start turning up.

There's a reason for that which I'll try to get to, along withyour other questions, tomorrow. Time for bed.

[Mike]

I'm waging an epic battle against myself right now - and I'm winning. :P