Transfer 9/20 for 9/21/04

[tsptalk]

I amgoing to lighten up some on my stock allocation making a transfer today, which will be effective Tuesday, 9/21. I will be going to 50% G, 50% C in front of the likely interest rate hike Tuesday afternoon. I expect this to be a short term move. Read today's market comments (http://www.tsptalk.com)for more information.

[tsptalk]

I would have wanted to make this move Friday morning except for 2 things. 1)I couldn't, and 2) My reverse psychology, contrarian personality made me think today would surprise us to the upside since so many expected a pullback. So far that doesn't seem true. We were right to be worried :shock:.

[puertorico]

I'm packing to G too ;)

100-G-effective tuesday 21...:shock:

[americanman]

I am sitting all G for now. Just awhile back I was thinking there may be a runup with the elections coming, but I have changed my course for now and staying put until I see something clear and concise.

[smine]

So if we are already 100% G stay there?

[Cinderella]

tsptalk wrote:
I would have wanted to make this move Friday morning except for 2 things.Â* 1)Â*I couldn't, and 2) My reverse psychology, contrarian personality made me think today would surprise us to the upside since so many expected a pullback.Â* So far that doesn't seem true.Â* We were right to be worried :shock:.Â*

Isn't the market typically weak after Triple Witching? The options on stocks, futures, and index' expired on Friday, Sept. 17. This, in combination with Greenspan talking tomorrow, could create some opportunities to buy.

Tom, sometimes reverse psychology works... I know this market is a tough call.

[tsptalk]

Cinderella wrote: Isn't the market typically weak after Triple Witching? The options on stocks, futures, and index' expired on Friday, Sept. 17. This, in combination with Greenspan talking tomorrow, could create some opportunities to buy.

The week after any options week is weaker than an average week. Not by much, but definately a noticeable negative bias. I would think triple witch (I think I heard it was actually quadruple witching, whatever that fourth contract is) would be even more affected.

I will look to buy back in if I see 1110 on the S&P 500, or maybe as early as Wdnesday morning depending on what Greenie says.

[tsptalk]

smine wrote: So if we are already 100% G stay there?
I would think you will have a better opportunity to buywithin the next week or so. Don't blink though. You might miss it. ;)

[tsptalk]

americanman wrote: I am sitting all G for now. Just awhile back I was thinking there may be a runup with the elections coming, but I have changed my course for now and staying put until I see something clear and concise.
Welcome americanman!

Don't get too worried about a pullback. I'd use it as an opportunity to buy lower, but not too much lower. I think we'll have to be quick.

[TheProphet]

I really want to appreciate everything you done for

the TPS community... I am very impress with your

marketing comments and accuracy in timing the

ticks of the market... you are a true financial expert

person... I am agree with you... I belief it will be a pull

back soon... and then it will be the time to get into...

meanwhile I am sitting 100% on G since September 7th...

when the DOW pick... Again... Thank you very much for

everything you do for all of us... Mamy Blesings...

Leon :^

[tsptalk]

Thanks, and welcome lkatteng!

P.S. I'm not always right :shock::).

[tsptalk]

With less that 2 hours to go before the deadline, I think I may make a move into stocks IF the S&P 500 holds the1110 area. So far today's low (about 1109.50) has bounced off the 50-day moving average. That may not last.

I will try to post it here. My work frowns on me updating the website duringwork hours. I'll try to find a PC elsewhere.

Tom

[puertorico]

Tom ,what about catching a falling knife...:s

Easy out there my friend...;)

tsptalk wrote: With less that 2 hours to go before the deadline, I think I may make a move into stocks IF the S&P 500 holds the1110 area. So far today's low (about 1109.50) has bounced off the 50-day moving average. That may not last.

I will try to post it here. My work frowns on me updating the website duringwork hours. I'll try to find a PC elsewhere.

Tom

In my opinion the C fund is the weakest of the three stock funds right now. But all of them are not worth the risk/reward.

Good luck!

Just follow my lower high/lower low chart. :cool:.

MT

Tom,

It is like you are playing poker and on tilt. I agree S fund is the best fundamentally acting stock fund in the TSP right now but I would not put 100% in there now.

Good luck Buddy! :!

MT

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote: Tom,

It is like you are playing poker and on tilt.
I admit it's a gamble, but I think it's too early to say I'm on tilt.If the market is up sharply Friday, would that make youon tilt? ;)

Plus, I've been doing this too long to go on tilt, in poker or the market. I just make adjustments.

Good luck to you too!

[ou81200]

Tom, I'm new to this board but have been lurking for awhile now. That was a pretty gutsy move today. I'm still 50% G fund, and 50% C fund. I think I will stay there at least one more day, but if the market does turn around tomorrow early in the morning, I'll probably make a move before the noon deadline. GLTY :^.

[tsptalk]

I have to decide if this is a short term, trying to catch a bounce play, or a longer term hold. The end of September is pretty weak historically. October is when to be in. I'll play it by ear. I may sell a nice rally.

[cowboy]

ou81200 wrote: Tom, I'm new to this board but have been lurking for awhile now. That was a pretty gutsy move today. I'm still 50% G fund, and 50% C fund. I think I will stay there at least one more day, but if the market does turn around tomorrow early in the morning, I'll probably make a move before the noon deadline. GLTY :^.
If this market turns around tomorrow early in the morning I'll stay on the side till monday and maybe then I may not get in. This is a down trending market not an up trending market at the moment. It is my theory if you buy on a turn around in a down trend your chances are much slimmer making a penny or two. I'm not saying you can't do it but the probability is much more in the markets favor. You will be in :shock:when the market goes against you the next day or monday.

[tsptalk]

ou81200 wrote: Tom, I'm new to this board but have been lurking for awhile now. That was a pretty gutsy move today. I'm still 50% G fund, and 50% C fund. I think I will stay there at least one more day, but if the market does turn around tomorrow early in the morning, I'll probably make a move before the noon deadline. GLTY :^.
By the way, welcome ou81200! (what's the 00?)

Tom

[ou81200]

I use this alias on a couple of other boards. That way, some others know who I am. This board is quite different than many other financial boards I frequent. And I mean this in a good way:D.

[Cinderella]

tsptalk wrote:
I have to decide if this is a short term, trying to catch a bounce play, or a longer term hold.Â* The end of September is pretty weak historically.Â* October is when to be in.Â* I'll play it by ear.Â* I may sell a nice rally.


I hope you sell a nice rally. The market opened flat, but now there appears to be a bounce. What to do now? Short term or longer term? If the rally holds, I am selling today, but I won't stay out long because I expect October to pick up. Like you, "I don't want to miss the dance".

tsptalk wrote: MarketTimer wrote: Tom,

It is like you are playing poker and on tilt.
I admit it's a gamble, but I think it's too early to say I'm on tilt.If the market is up sharply Friday, would that make youon tilt? ;)

Plus, I've been doing this too long to go on tilt, in poker or the market. I just make adjustments.

Good luck to you too!

Tom,

"However, I do not think anyone wants to be heavy in stocks over the weekend. All ways dangerous to sell on Fridays for this reason."

Things were looking good until 1pm :?. All that TSP moneywent it and got soaked up byothers :s. Looks like no one wants to hold any stocks on Friday due to a "event" that may move the market happens on the weekend.

G fundshould give us .01 on Monday and I am very happy with that right now.

Hope ya had a great weekend!

MT