Long Term Tally

[rokid]

Attached are tallies for the periods 2006-2007 and 2005-2007. It's probably premature for 2007. However, I wanted to see how TSPers' longer term results looked.

I only included people with continuous, full year returns for the periods. Therefore, some of your favorites may be missing because they started after the beginning of the calendar year. Finally, the total returns for the period are compound returns.

If you find any mistakes, I'll correct them when I return from the beach. Enjoy!:cheesy:

[GGal]

Finally, I get to be on top!


GA (tee hee)

[jayhawker]

Finally, I get to be on top!


GA (tee hee)

Congrats GA!!!! :)

[budnipper1]

Finally, I get to be on top!


GA (tee hee)

Rats! Due to my youth and inexperience, all I get to do is watch. :eek:

[GGal]

I tell you, a movie is in the works here guys, and I want my share......my part will be played by Reese Witherspoon, a charming blonde Southern gal who unwittingly trades her way to fortune (just like she unwittingly graduated from Harvard Law School in Legally Blonde for those of you who didn't see it).

Who will play you guys?

GA

[weatherweenie]

I tell you, a movie is in the works here guys, and I want my share......my part will be played by Reese Witherspoon, a charming blonde Southern gal who unwittingly trades her way to fortune (just like she unwittingly graduated from Harvard Law School in Legally Blonde for those of you who didn't see it).

Who will play you guys?

GA

I've been told that I resemble Bruce Willis :cool: as my avatar will attest to. :D

[mlk_man]

Wow Tom, you're quick this evening..........

How about this, my girlfriends tell me I resemble John Holmes. I don't mean in the face either................;)

[Rod]

I usually get "Jeff Gordon".:cool:

Judge for yourself:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v370/bic4jesus/limo.jpg

Hey, isn't Jeff also "last"???:p

Just kidd'n Jeff!:D (He's actually in the lead.)

BUT, it was "John Cougar" back in my High School days:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v370/bic4jesus/rodman.jpg

:D

[weatherweenie]

BUT, it was "John Cougar" back in my High School days:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v370/bic4jesus/rodman.jpg

:D

Looks more like a Loverboy cast off. :laugh:

[Rod]

Looks more like a Loverboy cast off. :laugh:

HA!:D

It was taken in 1988... and it was "cool" back then!:laugh:

[GGal]

I believe Colin Ferrell (not sure about that last name) will play you, Rod. Geesh, you must be my OLDEST daughter's age, she graduated in HS in 1989....then my youngest graduated HS in 1999.

Old Lady GA

[Rod]

I believe Colin Ferrell (not sure about that last name) will play you, Rod. Geesh, you must be my OLDEST daughter's age, she graduated in HS in 1989....then my youngest graduated HS in 1999.

Old Lady GA

HA!:D

At first when I read Colin Ferrell I was thinking of Will Ferrell!:cheesy:

[GGal]

http://www.kaputz.com/colin_farrell/pics/thumbs/000005-colin_farrell.jpg

Rod aka colin farrell

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally as of 18 May 2007.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies as of 1 June 2007.

The "buy and hold" Total Global Market portfolio has done well over the last three years. However, it remains to be seen how well it will perform in a bear market followed by a bear to bull market transition. :confused:

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally as of 8 June 2008.

[rokid]

Long Term Tally as of 15 June 2007.

[rokid]

Long Term Tally as of 22 June 2007.

[rokid]

Long Term Tallies as of 29 June 2007.

[rokid]

Long Term Tallies as of 7 July 2007.

[rokid]

The attached chart highlights the results of the various investment approaches taken by TSPers.

[rokid]

Actually, yes. In fact, just buying and holding the I Fund for the last three years was the best approach. However, that may not be the case in the future.

[Spaf]

Does this chart suggest that everyone would have been better off to just buy and hold the I-Fund for the last 2 years? :confused:

IMHO: No! The word "everyone" gives me a little heart-burn.
See how the "L" funds are calculated. As you get closer to retirement you should be taking less risk. If you have done your savings right, your TSP should be a fairly big egg.

The last 2 years were bull markets, what if they were bear markets? Can you protect your TSP account in retirement? What if the middle east war escalated to a bunch of nations?

I think there is a big divide between Friday night predictions and Monday morning quarterbacking.

[Birchtree]

The best approach going forward will be to buy and hold the C fund - IMHO ofcourse. Information and technology companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post annualized earnings expansion of 12% in the quarter. Overseas expansion is one factor behind those gains: 56% of the revenue of tech companies in the S&P 500 comes from outside the U.S., the most overseas exposure of any sector next to energy. I know where I'm sitting. Since March the Nasdaq 100 index is up 15% compared with an 11% gain by the S&P 500.

[rokid]

Long Term Tally as of 13 July 2007.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally as of 20 July 2007.

[rokid]

The 2 year Long Term Tally chart is looking more and more like a normal distribution. Congrats to the leaders.

[rokid]

The Long Term Two and Three Year Tallies as of 27 July 2007.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally for 3 Aug 2007.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally for 10 Aug 2007.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally for 17 Aug 2007.

[rokid]

These will be my last Tallies. I've learned what I set out to learn - buy and hold asset allocation works in both up and down markets.

Although my returns were always only slightly above average, they were never way below average. :cheesy: In addition, over the long term, i.e. three years, my strategy did well (most of the other TSPers stopped posting) - particularly on a risk adjusted basis. However, that's another chart!

I wish you all the best in your investing and in your careers.----Jim

[dell]

Jim: These may be your last tallies, but you intend to hang around and be part of the discussions, right?

Dell

[TiCKed]

These will be my last Tallies. I've learned what I set out to learn - buy and hold asset allocation works in both up and down markets.

Although my returns were always only slightly above average, they were never way below average. :cheesy: In addition, over the long term, i.e. three years, my strategy did well (most of the other TSPers stopped posting) - particularly on a risk adjusted basis. However, that's another chart!

I wish you all the best in your investing and in your careers.----Jim

Guess I haven't said much in this thread....(nothing in fact)....but I enjoyed looking at the "long term" results. Thanks!

Don't know how difficult it would be, but if its possible to do a yearly update...say after the first of every year...it would prove illuminating.

(Of course, it may be too tough to recreate it on a whim....In which case, forget I said anything. :))

[Gilligan]

These will be my last Tallies. ........ I wish you all the best in your investing and in your careers.----Jim
Thank you Jim for your time, I have looked forward to reviewing your Tallies every week.

[CountryBoy]

Thank you Jim for your time, I have looked forward to reviewing your Tallies every week.

I can only echo what Gilligan said. Your tallies were the first thing I looked for on Saturday's, they're going to be missed. Thanks for sharing your time.

CB

[poolman]

Man, When I read this it made me sad. Thanks Rokid for doing the tallies as long as you did. Your "tallies" where what I looked forward to on Saturday mornings also. Now how are we to compare with other member's on how we are doing?

I wish someone else could step up to the plate and continue your fine work. I would if I had time. I work out in the field on inground swimming pools and closing's are going to be coming fast and furious starting in about 2 weeks. August is one of my slowest month's. That is the reason I have been able to be at a computer and be involved so much. I'm going to have to make my moves no later than 7:25 a.m. in the next coming month's. I hate when I cannot be at my computer.

Thanks for everything, Rokid...:)

[nnuut]

Thanks Rokid for your dedication. The Weekly Tally will be strongly missed, such a tool, most times I don't even look at the Weekly Tracker. Thank you much, it's been great.
Norman

[tsptalk]

Thanks for your dedication to the tally. We apprecaite all you have done. Now go enjoy retirement!

Did you wish to pass the torch (your spreadsheets) to someone else so we can continue to post the tallies?

Thanks and good luck!
Tom

[ebbnflow]

These will be my last Tallies. I've learned what I set out to learn - buy and hold asset allocation works in both up and down markets.

Although my returns were always only slightly above average, they were never way below average. :cheesy: In addition, over the long term, i.e. three years, my strategy did well (most of the other TSPers stopped posting) - particularly on a risk adjusted basis. However, that's another chart!

I wish you all the best in your investing and in your careers.----Jim

Rokid (Jim), we looked forward to your tallies every week. Everyone enjoyed seeing how other members improved from week to week. I remembered seeing myself dead last and knew I'd have fun moving up. Can't you at least drop only the long term tally (if it is too much work), but keep the weekly tally! As an added incentive, maybe Tom can even open up a paypal donation for your troubles! :)

Your tally is sure going to be missed. :(

[tsptalk]

Your tally is sure going to be missed. :(
Fear not! Jim was kind enough to pass along his files and EW_ret will be taking over the tally. Hopefully the transition will be smooth with no break in the action.

Thanks Rokid! And thanks EW_ret!

Tom

[nnuut]

EW_ret to the rescue, AGAIN!!! And thanks again EW.:D
Norman

[CountryBoy]

Fear not! Jim was kind enough to pass along his files and EW_ret will be taking over the tally. Hopefully the transition will be smooth with no break in the action.

Thanks Rokid! And thanks EW_ret!

Tom

Thanks EW_ret for picking up the baton from Rokid and running with it. :D

CB

[poolman]

Awesome...:)

Thank you Jim, Tom, and EW_ret for making this wonderful tallie continue on. What a relief to know I have this to look forward to on Saturday's.

I think this was one of the main reason's I joined tsptalk. I wanted an honest to goodness way to track myself and have fun. Teamwork pay's off and we have good players.

Thanks again,

Paul

[rokid]

FYI. Pyriel's da man. Three years of strong performance. :nuts:------Jim

[nnuut]

No Rokid you DA MAN!!:D

[Miss Piggy]

HERE ARE ROKID'S TALLIES!
I was looking for these a couple of days ago. Thank you Rokid. Can I look forward to seeing them again on any regular basis?


FYI. Pyriel's da man. Three years of strong performance. :nuts:------Jim
Attached Files

[rokid]

Miss Piggy,

Sure, I'll start posting them again. ------Jim

[Birchtree]

We must remember that Pyriel is way deep in real estate. Glad it's not me.

[charmed855]

We must remember that Pyriel is way deep in real estate. Glad it's not me.

Birch, when in those three years did you stop being a "multi-fund swing trader?"

[rokid]

Some new Long Term Tallies for you perusal.

Congrats to Griffin. He's now the 2 year leader.

However, Pyriel continues to maintain his 3 year lead. He's probably also doing good in real estate. Doesn't seem fair.:laugh:-----Jim

[Miss Piggy]

Hey Rokid,
We are really going to need your tallies now since we can't move around so much anymore. Are you going to be available? :D
HERE ARE ROKID'S TALLIES!
I was looking for these a couple of days ago. Thank you Rokid. Can I look forward to seeing them again on any regular basis?

[rokid]

Miss Piggy,

Anything for you! :D ----Jim

[Miss Piggy]

Miss Piggy,

Anything for you! :D ----Jim
:laugh:..... ;):cheesy:

[rokid]

The Long Term Tally for 30 Nov 2007. All of this recent market turmoil hasn't had much of an impact in the long term rankings.:cool:

[rokid]

Friends Don’t Let Friends “Buy and Hold”

Experts, including Nobel Prize winners, Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, recommend a passive, diversified asset allocation, for the average investor. Interestingly, TSPTalk is devoted to market timing. I guess like Lake Wobegonians, all TSPTalkers are above average.

But are they? What are TSPTalk market timers getting for all of their IFTs?

A cursory review of returns would suggest that market timing works. Griffin is at 19.58% for the year. Pyriel is at 18.44%. Approximately 45% of TSPTalkers are beating the L2040 Fund. However, on the flip side, 55% of TSPTalker returns are losing to the L2040 Fund. Tom is at -7.4%. In addition, nearly all of the TSPTalkers take positions that are riskier than the L2040.

So what are the facts?

In 2007 the average market timing TSPTalker is under performing the average passive, diversified, “buy and hold” TSPTalker asset allocation (Aslan and Rokid). Through 30 Nov:
TSPTalker market timers: 7.15%
TSPTalker “Buy and holders”: 8.44%
Over the last two years

TSPTalk market timers: 21.9%
TSPTalker “Buy and holders”: 27.03%
In 2007, the L2020, L2030, and L2040 are beating the average market timing TSPTalker.
Over the last two years, the L2020, L2030, and L2040 are beating the average market timing TSPTalker.
The Total Global Market (TGM) allocation, at 10.08% for the year, is killing the average market timing TSPTalker.
Over the last two years, the TGM passive allocation beat 91% of the TSPTalkers. Over the last three years, TGM beat 75% of the TSPTalkers.Although it’s hard to argue against the performance of market timers like Griffin and Pyriel, it’s also clear that the odds of outperforming a well constructed, “buy and hold” portfolio over the long run, for the average TSPTalker, are slim.

In addition, “buy and hold” doesn’t have to worry about the proposed TSP IFT restrictions. :rolleyes:------Jim

[Bullitt]

Rokid,

Good post. I guess we're forced to refer to two years as 'Long Term Investing' so that the buy side analysts can continue to pump new stock recommendations to us daily. The days of the easy money IFT's may be long gone and that's not because of the new two per month restriction. I think a lot of folks out there got caught holding the bag when that vix began to rise in Feb '07.

Stocks for the long run.

[pyriel]

We must remember that Pyriel is way deep in real estate. Glad it's not me.

Hi all! I'm in Kansas right now doing our mobilization training. Somehow I changed the way I transfer funds and lately i've been a buy and holder. I will continue to swing trade but for now and for the next 3 years at least, I truly believe that I fund will outlast c&s funds. Additionally, my deployment doesn't allow me to track TSP funds as i'd like it to be so for me the safest bet is to put everything in the i fund for now. Also, Guam time zone requires me to wake up at 2 am in the morning to watch tha last minute trend and since im a sleepy head, i had to change my trading strategy.

My real estate is booming (Sorry to dissapoint you Birch;-)) All my properties were bought at a very low price and appreciation have skyrocket. A good example is my 8 unit apartment that i bought for 160k in 2003 is now pegged for 520k. With billions of dollars on its way to Guam (good for at least 5 years) due to Marines being kicked out of Okinawa, RE here will continue to boom. I am looking at selling most of my properties within that timeframe and then wait for the bust that will soon follow.

I just want to note that I totally agree with Rokid's assessment. I, too, have been looking at the tally and looking at other peoples return and trade practices and i'm not seeing a really big difference between buy/hold and swing trade. However, I also think that the difference we are seeing between the two is because of people getting on board and trying out swing trading. I'm sure that you all can see that I barely made 7% in 2005 and I attribute this due to learning experience for being so new.

Hope you guys are doing well and lets continue to help each other out. No use being on top if you are alone and there is no one to talk to;-). BTW as I always say, pls don't follow me coz I really don't know what i'm doing.

Pyriel

[nnuut]

Pyriel, nice to hear from you. Good news with your real estate investments, gonna be a rich man!!! Best of luck.
Norman:D

[ayla]

I just want to note that I totally agree with Rokid's assessment. I, too, have been looking at the tally and looking at other peoples return and trade practices and i'm not seeing a really big difference between buy/hold and swing trade. However, I also think that the difference we are seeing between the two is because of people getting on board and trying out swing trading. I'm sure that you all can see that I barely made 7% in 2005 and I attribute this due to learning experience for being so new.
Pyriel

Yes, I believe that is an excellent point. Newbies invariably don't do well (though there are exceptions of course). I wish we could have a report on the number of people in the tracker and the length of time since they first became members vs their returns. That is the whole point of our doing our own trading, we get a chance to learn how (and some of us may take longer than others before we develop a viable good strategy or throw in the towel and follow someone with a good track record). What is wrong with that? Seems like the old (stubborn) American pioneer/can-do spirit to me.

My signature says it all.

[rokid]

Ayla,

FYI.

Old Timers (2 full years of posting) - average 7.54% for 2007

New Timers (1 full year of posting) - average 6.97% for 2007

Old "buy and holders" - average 8.44% for 2007

In addition, consider "survivor bias". Most TSPTalkers who are under performing, lose interest and stop posting. On the other hand, those who are doing well, continue to post. ;)-----Jim

[tspgo_com]

Thank you much for the Long Term Comparison reports and for the analysis of the data. Great job!

[ayla]

Ayla,

In addition, consider "survivor bias". Most TSPTalkers who are under performing, lose interest and stop posting. On the other hand, those who are doing well, continue to post. ;)-----Jim

Thanks for the stats. I don't agree totally about those who stop posting. In some (or many) cases, I'm sure you are correct but I think on the opposite end, for those who are doing well and who really believe they have their strategy worked out well and don't have a strong desire for the social network aspect of tsptalk, I believe they also lose interest (and may not want to share their moves, LOL).

I'm hoping I will be in this latter category if my latest strategy works out as well as the back testing indicates. I will probably request then that I no longer be tracked. Of course if TSP starts limiting IFT's, then that also will be a reason for me to no longer be tracked since I will move my dollars to a private broker.

[rokid]

Ayla,

I actually hope you are right. Some have stopped posting and gone on to creating their own advisory services. However, others have left when they were at the bottom of the tally.

Good luck with your strategy.-----Jim

[ayla]

Ayla,

I actually hope you are right. Some have stopped posting and gone on to creating their own advisory services. However, others have left when they were at the bottom of the tally.

Good luck with your strategy.-----Jim

Another point is that there are many many more lurkers to this site than there are registered members and to reduce it more, there are many more registered members than those who are participating in the tracker.

My point is that those who have read THE MILLIONAIRE NEXT DOOR know that most millionaires don’t drive status cars.

The same goes for here, I think. Those who are really the most successful (for the most part though of course there are exceptions) are not flaunting it by having their moves tracked and obtaining the top of the list rank.

(Not to diminish Griffin who I think is great but who participates mostly, I think because he gets more satisfaction from teaching than from winning, though I'm sure he isn't turning away his successful returns anytime soon, LOL)

And another point, IMO, people participate here primarily for the social network benefits (of course I'm talking here about their participation after they become more educated about FV's and "cross trades" , cut offs for IFT transfers and what indicators are helpful, etc, basic newbie stuff but still necessary to learn for many of us who have had no idea).

So using the tracker results to extrapolate about all TSP members (most of whom are not interested in participating here, mainly because they are too busy, LOL) is not logical.

[Miss Piggy]

I’ve been a lurker.
I’ve been a participant.
I’ve been a lemming.
I’ve been a gambler.
I’ve been a learner (tried).
I’ve been a winner and a loser – mostly loser.
This year I’m praying for strength to Buy & Hold – my New Year’s Resolution.
Any prayers appreciated. :D

[rokid]

So using the tracker results to extrapolate about all TSP members (most of whom are not interested in participating here, mainly because they are too busy, LOL) is not logical.

I'm just comparing the results of the people who are being tracked. I am not extrapolating the results to TSP members as a whole.

However, the tracked, TSPTalk market timers as a whole are under performing the two passive investors in the 2007 Tally. They are also under performing most of the L Funds. This also appears to be true over the 2-3 year tally. It also appears that newbie vs. seasoned timer doesn't make that much difference.

This result is in line with the vast majority of academic research results. Academic research shows that it is very hard to consistently beat the market over a reasonably long period. Buffet has done it. Peter Lynch has done it. David Swenson has done it. Interestingly, all of them recommend that the average investor establish a diversified, passive asset allocation that is in line with their risk tolerance and then leave it alone except to periodically rebalance, i.e. "buy and hold".

However, since most studies show "buy and hold" triumphs "after costs", I was interested to see whether or not "costless" market timing, i.e. IFTs are free, would prove superior to buy and hold. Although I'd be the first to admit that the Tally is not a valid study, it does suggest that the approach recommended by the vast majority of finance academics and many of the most successful professional investors on the planet has merit. At this point, for me, the burden of proof is on the market timers. Are they good or are they just having a string of good (or bad) luck? Investors like Griffin and Pyriel may just be very good. However, you can't follow them if they stop posting.

In the past I've graphed the Tally returns. For most of 2007 the returns have followed a normal, i.e. random, distribution. In other words, approximately half of the returns are greater than average and half are less than average and the mean and the median are equal.

Finally, unlike Birch, I have not knowingly ridden a passive allocation from the top to the bottom and back again without bailing (I rode it, I just was comatose:laugh:). Therefore, I'm gathering evidence that the "buy and hold" approach is best for me so that I don't panic at just the wrong time and sell low and buy high.

[ayla]

Apologies, rokid. Didn't mean to put you on the defensive. But reason I'm being persistent in not letting this drop is because I have no doubt that the TSP board is reading whatever they can here that might support their positions and your position is probably pretty much in line with theirs.

And yes, I have heard much the same about the "buy and hold" philosophy and I still have not decided never to consider this but I must say (and not necessarily to you but to anybody), these opinions by the "experts" shouldn't force rules on those of us who want to try another path especially if we are willing to pay our way. Buffet had to learn from somewhere. And yes, luck has a lot to do with it and what if I want to hope I might have the same luck that Buffet probably did at some point?

I think there is a better way to solve this problem about the board wanting to limit IFT's (again) by moving forward rather than backward. Let's hope they or some other group that can influence them are smart enough to find it without going backward.

My biggest issue is that with the proposed new limits, this will definitely restrict the numbers of members who might otherwise actually try to understand more about how the stock market works. This is what gripes me the most. Please don't implement rules that hinder or discourage people from learning and making mistakes while they are doing it. I believe the white collar corruption we have seen on the increase recently is because of apathy by the share-holders (largely though not totally of course). I believe the new proposed plan by the TSP board to limit IFTs will perpetuate more apathy, something we DON'T need.

One could say you can learn without risking your real dollars. But as we all know, when there is no REAL incentive to improve (such as your own dollars), it doesn't happen as effectively. I remember the corrections last year and this year since I've been dabbling with my returns. I remember many of the political events which led up to them. I wouldn't have any memory of these if I was a "buy and holder" and my interest in understanding the political ramifications of the decrease in the value of the dollar is quite high, something that would never have happened if I were "buy and holder". I even know the date of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Not too shabby for someone who didn't have a clue less than two years ago.

Still a long way to go but I want to do it "my way", something I thought was usually still allowed for the most part in this country as long as I don't hurt anyone else or cause anyone else additional costs.

[nnuut]

I'm with you Ayla! I do it MY WAY! 2736

[rokid]

And yes, I have heard much the same about the "buy and hold" philosophy and I still have not decided never to consider this but I must say (and not necessarily to you but to anybody), these opinions by the "experts" shouldn't force rules on those of us who want to try another path especially if we are willing to pay our way. Buffet had to learn from somewhere. And yes, luck has a lot to do with it and what if I want to hope I might have the same luck that Buffet probably did at some point?

No apology required. We haven't had a spirited "buy and hold" vs. timing debate on TSPTalk for a while.

My problem, and I assume the problem of many new investors, was to decide how to invest in the face of competing claims. Basically, for me, it comes down to accepting what the market offers. "Experts" claim that over time that approach will achieve the best results.

On the other hand, timers are not willing to accept what the market offers. They want to do better. Undoubtedly, some do better. However, have they done better because of skill or luck? Alternately, some do worse than the market, i.e. lack of skill or bad luck?

Since I don't have 30 years to figure this out, I decided to believe the experts and gladly accept what the market offers. I don't need more and I don't want to lose considerable amount of money I have (at least for me) pursuing a high risk strategy - my wife would kill me! Plus, I'm lazy! :D

Re: the IFT question. I doubt the TSP board can show a cost impact of IFTs at this point. I recollect that they claimed that the nightly rebalancing of the L Funds didn't have a cost impact because they could just move the fund allocations around in the giant TSP pot without actually buying or selling securities. CPU cycles aren't expensive.

However, if market timing does catch on in a big way, it seems likely that it would generate costs. I think the TSP Board is engaged in a preemptive strike. :cool:

[ayla]

However, if market timing does catch on in a big way, it seems likely that it would generate costs. I think the TSP Board is engaged in a preemptive strike. :cool:

Totally agree. I've learned that I'm not that special. If I really want to do something or try something, there are usually lots of others who want the same thing. I predict there will be a huge herd of others who want to be able to trade more frequently and I believe they will have a much louder voice than ours right now. So either now or sometime later. I'm hoping now. Seems like changing back and forth and back and forth has a lot of overhead. Why not just put in a system that will fulfill future requirements now? (It's called having "vision" I believe.)

And as Tom suggests, if they set up a trading fee (that is reasonable), they will have years ahead to collect from all those who will also want to trade frequently. (Hoping they make note that trading fees are going down "on the outside" so no reason to charge $500 per trade., IMO)

I would suggest $500 per year for unlimited trading privileges which would cause newbies to be pretty serious if they wanted the privileges. Also, they wouldn't be trading frequently as new hires, probably. And also, a yearly "frequent traders club fee" might be easier to implement software wise rather than per individual transaction.

Seems like they could use the existing "front end" i.e. unlimited trading that would allow login ids that belonged to those who have paid their yearly fee and another front end for those who haven't that would use the system of limited trades they want to implement in March.

So very little new over what they have proposed except for validation of the ids for those who have paid annual fee. The "backend" could be the same as it is now. Don't see why it would have to change. Guess they probably don't need another software engineer, though.

Crossing my fingers...

[wv-girl]

"Guess they probably don't need another software engineer, though." Disagree Ayla, I think that is EXACTLY what they need, cause their 'cost estimates' of $500 per person is totally off the scale. That was just an intimitation factor, if you ask me.

[Show-me]

Now remember Ms. Ray singled out the 323 participants that are trading $250,000 or more in one trade. Point: $500 may not cover their daily trades for a year.

[Ed]

No apology required. We haven't had a spirited "buy and hold" vs. timing debate on TSPTalk for a while.

My problem, and I assume the problem of many new investors, was to decide how to invest in the face of competing claims. Basically, for me, it comes down to accepting what the market offers. "Experts" claim that over time that approach will achieve the best results.

On the other hand, timers are not willing to accept what the market offers. They want to do better. Undoubtedly, some do better. However, have they done better because of skill or luck? Alternately, some do worse than the market, i.e. lack of skill or bad luck?

Since I don't have 30 years to figure this out, I decided to believe the experts and gladly accept what the market offers. I don't need more and I don't want to lose considerable amount of money I have (at least for me) pursuing a high risk strategy - my wife would kill me! Plus, I'm lazy! :D

Re: the IFT question. I doubt the TSP board can show a cost impact of IFTs at this point. I recollect that they claimed that the nightly rebalancing of the L Funds didn't have a cost impact because they could just move the fund allocations around in the giant TSP pot without actually buying or selling securities. CPU cycles aren't expensive.

However, if market timing does catch on in a big way, it seems likely that it would generate costs. I think the TSP Board is engaged in a preemptive strike. :cool:
Here is my view for whatever it's worth of "buy and hold" versus "market timing" which has, frankly, changed over the years of investing.

It reminds me of the "buy term and investment the difference" debate which revolutionized the industry some years ago or the "passive versus active" investment approach using index funds, namely our own TSP funds.

In my earlier years and probably rightly so, I was very aggressive with my investments. When TSP was first introduced with index funds I felt it handicapped my investment style. As time went on, I would be hard pressed not/not to have index funds make up a large core of my investment holdings. And, as I get older I'm leaning to more of a KISS and auto pilot approach since I'm losing my passion, or hobby, of accumulating wealth

Which strategy is better? As one investment guru puts it: "forecasting has two approaches---lucky and wrong." And, believe me I've had my share of being on the wrong side.

I believe it boils down to this if you believe in the Divine. All that we have are gifts from God and as good stewards we should make good with his gifts. So, if God gives you the wisdom to use one investment approach over another and allows you to benefit, thank Him and do good with you money (that part is your personal choice).

Thank you for allowing me to share my thoughts.

Regards,

Ed (non-practicing CFP and after reading all the articles on TSP Inter Fund Restrictions probably in the top 100 of all TSP account holders in terms of balance---not that this means anything. All this means is that I maximized TSP contributions (employer and employee) and accepted a lot of market risk with TSP asset mixes over the years.)

[rokid]

The Long-term Tallies for 14 Dec 2007.

[rokid]

Question:

Based on my data, the most successful TSP Talk investment approach has been single fund swing trade, i.e. 100% between fixed income (G&F) and equities (C,S, & I), with an average return of 9.34% YTD. The second best approach has been multi-fund diversified, i.e. passive asset allocation among multiple funds, with a 6.62% return YTD. However, most people being tracked are multi-fund swing trade, i.e. switching between multi-fund positions, with a 5.39% YTD return.

In addition, intuitively, single fund swing trade would seem to be easier to manage than the multi-fund swing trade. Therefore, why do 88% of the TSPTalkers practice the approach that seems, on average, to offer the worst results.:confused:

[rokid]

Griffin crushed the competition in the 2 year long-term tally leader. Show-me rallied at the end of the year to re-take the 3 year leader position. Congratulations. -----Jim

[Show-me]

Rokid,

Thank you for a nice visual. Congrats to all!!!

[Pill]

Yes, thank you Rokid!

Those L funds sure don't look that bad.

Funny how some many bad mouth them.

[Rod]

Question:

Therefore, why do 88% of the TSPTalkers practice the approach that seems, on average, to offer the worst results.:confused:

I believe it's because they feel they are being diversified.

BTW, I belong to the 12% who single fund swing trade most of the time.

I have been thinking of a different approach this year, and that is... you guessed it... to diversify more!

[Rod]

Griffin crushed the competition in the 2 year long-term tally leader. Show-me rallied at the end of the year to re-take the 3 year leader position. Congratulations. -----Jim

Looking at the 2 year, it seems just a couple folks (Spaf, Gritz) have shown consistency within their returns. Some of the rest of us have some rather wide swings. So, it's still anyone's game!:laugh:

Good job fellas!

[Show-me]

I am learning diversification is defiantly the name of the game. You can not pick the top or the bottom and you can not pick the single fund that will perform the best for the new year.

How about that F Fund?

[Rod]

I am learning diversification is defiantly the name of the game. You can not pick the top or the bottom and you can not pick the single fund that will perform the best for the new year.

How about that F Fund?

I came this close to going 80 (G) 20 (F) to start of the new year...:o

[rokid]

The final Long-Term Tallies for 2007. Griffin rules in the two year tally. Show-me is tops in the three year tally.

"We're not worthy". ;-) -----Jim

[rokid]

The first long-term tallies of the new year. Show-me is "the man". He is number one since 2005. However, Pyriel is a close second. Those two are amazing.

If I were a trader, I know who I'd be following. On second thought.....:D-----Jim

[rokid]

Long-term Tallies for 18 Jan 2008.----Jim

[Miss Piggy]

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj217/mptsp/smileys/congrats/utheman.gif again, Jim.

[rokid]

Miss Piggy,

You're more than welcome!-----Jim

[Weather_n_Leather]

Question:

Based on my data, the most successful TSP Talk investment approach has been single fund swing trade, i.e. 100% between fixed income (G&F) and equities (C,S, & I), with an average return of 9.34% YTD. The second best approach has been multi-fund diversified, i.e. passive asset allocation among multiple funds, with a 6.62% return YTD. However, most people being tracked are multi-fund swing trade, i.e. switching between multi-fund positions, with a 5.39% YTD return.



What exactly do the following terms mean?

single fund swing trade

multi-fund diversified

multi-fund swing trade

I would like to know which category fit in. :confused:

[rokid]

Single Fund Swing Trade - Frequent IFTing between one fund at a time. For example, between the G Fund and the I Fund or between the F Fund and the C Fund. This is the classic market timing approach. It is practiced by relatively few TSPTalkers. However, it resulted in the highest average return in 2007.

Examples: IFT1: 100% G; IFT2: 100% I; IFT3: 100% C.

Multi-fund Diversified - Passive asset allocation. Use of multiple funds. Periodic re-balancing. This is the approach recommended by the TSP board and many financial experts. It's also the L Fund approach. With the departure of Aslan, I believe that I am the only TSPTalk Multi-fund Diversified practitioner.

Example: 20% G, 20% F, 20% C, 10% S, and 30% I.

Multi-fund Swing Trade - IFTing between multiple funds with a single IFT. For example, going from 50% G/50% F to 33% C, 33% S, 33% I. This is the approach utilized by the largest number of TSPTalkers attempting to time the market. It was also the least productive approach, in terms of average return, in 2007.

Examples: IFT1: 100% G; IFT2: 50% C, 50% I; IFT3: 25% C, 25% S, 50% I; IFT4: 50% G, 50% F

[Weather_n_Leather]

Rokid,

Thank you for the information.

I guess you would say that I use the Multi-fund Swing Trade approach. But I am not entirely sure. I am currently:

G 65%
F 10%
C 5%
S 5%
I 15%

I occasionally make changes to these percentages. But they are more like tweaks than wholesale changes.

I am not trying to time the market...just make changes to reflect current and future expectations.

Once again, thanks! :)

[rokid]

Weather n Leather,

Based on your description, I'd categorize you as a Multi-fund Diversified investor. Welcome to the board and good luck with your investing.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long-term Tallies for 18 Jan 2008. Read'um and weep! :laugh:----Jim

[rokid]

The attached shows simulated L Fund returns since 1988. Since the L Funds didn't exist until recently, I took their original allocations and ran them through my back tester. Note, I didn't re-balance daily and I didn't adjust the allocations quarterly. Therefore, the returns are just an approximation.

However, I do think it is interesting that there is an obvious correlation between risk and return. During this time period, 1988-2007, higher risk (check the $93K 2002 C Fund loss!) yielded higher returns. That may or may not happen in future time periods. Currently, we're enjoying the other side of risk. :cool:-----Jim

[rokid]

Attached is my long-term portfolio back tester. In addition to supporting the input of various portfolio allocations, it provides estimated 2007 portfolio values for all of the TSP Funds, the Total Global Market, and Rokid's portfolio.

Incidentally, the I Fund really sucked in the 1990s. :cheesy:-------Jim

[rokid]

The Long-term Tallies for 18 Jan 2008. ----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 8 Feb 2008. ----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 15 Feb 2008. ----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 22 Feb 2008. ----Jim

[rokid]

Correction: I missed the fact that Futurestrader, Russell, and Spaf stopped posting to the autotracker.:embarrest:-----Jim

[tom1tom1]

Attached is my long-term portfolio back tester. In addition to supporting the input of various portfolio allocations, it provides estimated 2007 portfolio values for all of the TSP Funds, the Total Global Market, and Rokid's portfolio.

Incidentally, the I Fund really sucked in the 1990s. :cheesy:-------Jim

I-fund wasn't around in the 1990"s

[rokid]

Yes, but the MS EAFE index was. The I Fund tracks the MS EAFE. ;)-----Jim

[rokid]

More Long Term Tallies.-----Jim

[rokid]

I updated the 2 Year Comparison to include Poolman.------Jim

[Boxholder]

Rokid, a question and probably a dumb one at that. What is the Sharpe Ratio?

[rokid]

Boxholder,

Certainly not a dumb question!

The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of reward to risk. Basically, how much reward do you get for unit of risk? The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better. In addition, if two portfolios achieve the same return, e.g. 15%, the portfolio with the higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio

[Boxholder]

Boxholder,

Certainly not a dumb question!

The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of reward to risk. Basically, how much reward do you get for unit of risk? The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better. In addition, if two portfolios achieve the same return, e.g. 15%, the portfolio with the higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio
So, in effect, a portfolio that was in only the G fund the whole year would have a Sharpe Ratio of 100? Is that correct?

[rokid]

Since 1988, I've calculated the G Fund Sharpe Ratio as 1.59 using 4% as the risk free rate. In other words, you got a 1.59% excess return over the risk free rate for each additional unit of risk.

In comparison, the following are the Sharpe ratios for the other TSP funds:

F Fund .73
C Fund .51
S Fund .50
I Fund .43

What this tells me is that your first unit of risk should go to the G Fund, followed, by the F Fund and so on. Of course, allocation-wise, the G Fund starts to drop out of your portfolio as your need for return increases.

The I fund was hurt by its large Japan holdings in the 1980s. You would expect the I Fund to track closer to the U.S. market in the future.

The comparison chart's Sharpe Ratio is a little misleading because the 2008 return used in the calculation is, of course, only a partial year's return. However, I want to see how its value converges to the true value as the year progresses.

On the other hand, maybe I should limit the Sharpe Ratio calculations to whole years because the current values, as displayed, are misleading.:rolleyes:----Jim

[Boxholder]

Thanks, Jim, for your answers. I did a little studying and understand it now. I had never really understood risk/reward until now. After checking the risk/reward in my personal stocks I realize I have some very good ones and 1 or 2 not so good, but happy that I now understand what I am looking at. Thanks again.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 7 Mar 2008.-----Jim

[EW_ret]

Rokid,

FYI the RevShark's return for YTD 2008 was in error due to unknown problem with the Automated Tracker. Tom has corrected it. It should be +1.33% YTD for 2008, as of 3-07-2008. This would raise the two-year return, but his ranking would remain at 17th. The Weekly Tally has corrected returns for RevShark, Trader_Fred, and 20%_Each.

[rokid]

All,

Attached is the corrected Two Year Tally. The corrections moved Trader-Fred up two positions. The Two Year Tally positions of RevShark and 20%_Each did not change.------Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 14 Mar 2008.------Jim

[rokid]

The Long-term Tallies for 21 March 2008.

Sorry, I just realized I posted these to the wrong thread.:embarrest:------Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 28 March 2008.------Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 4 April 2008.------Jim

[Miss Piggy]

Jim, my genius long term analyst,
Could you take a listen to this very short audio clip and comment on the conclusion this guy reaches; is this possibly true? :nuts: TIA
http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/playerFull.asp?media=0&band=0&remPref=1&guid=%7B616D38CC-8BA1-4EB0-80A5-2B772A0C0907%7D&siteid=nbk

[rokid]

Miss Piggy,

Mark Hulbert is a highly respected analyst. If he assumes the market is the S&P 500, i.e. C Fund, then he's correct. If you broaden the market to include the total stock market (C, S, and I Funds), then he's not correct.

By my calculations 1999-2007:

100% G Fund - 4.99% annualized
100% F Fund - 5.64% annualized
100% C Fund - 3.34% annualized
100% S Fund - 6.87% annualized
100% I Fund - 6.67% annualized
Typical 60/40 portfolio (40% F, 25% C, 5% S, and 30% I) - 6.00% annualized

The above, once again, shows the value of diversifying across multiple asset classes. In addition, assuming inflation averaged 3.5%, neither the savings account or 100% C Fund made any money.

For the 1988-2007 period:

100% G Fund - 6.31% annualized
100% F Fund - 7.21% annualized
100% C Fund - 11.64% annualized
100% S Fund - 11.59% annualized
100% I Fund - 7.09% annualized
the 60/40 portfolio above - 8.98% annualized

If the G Fund represents an optimistic savings account rate, all of the stock funds and the diversified portfolio beat it. I guess 1988-2007 represents Jeremy Siegel's 20 years.:toung:-----Jim

[Miss Piggy]

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj217/mptsp/smileys/congrats/hifive.gif Does this guy (rokid) know his stuff or not! http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj217/mptsp/smileys/happy/thnkx.gif

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 11 April 2008.---Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 18 April 2008.----Jim

[rokid]

I was wondering if there was any relationship between the number of IFTs and the resulting percent return.

Consequently, I did a scatter chart of TSPers' (no funds or services) returns YTD. In addition, I did a regression analysis of the same data.

The result? There is no relationship between IFTs and percentage returns. However, above the average number of IFTs line (8.7) there is a larger spread between the lowest and highest returns. Therefore, intuitively, it appears that increased IFT activity may be riskier. On the other hand, as activity increases towards the maximum (45), the lo/hi spread decreases.

Incidentally, I did a similar analysis of TSPer IFTs/returns several years ago and achieved the same results.

The chart, the analysis, and the data are attached.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 25 April 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 2 May 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 9 May 2008.

Note that Pyriel is back on the Autotracker. He's one of our top investors over the last 3.5 years.

2007-2008; number 10
2006-2008; number 3
2005-2008; number 3

-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 16 May 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

The attached reflects the correction made to Foghorn's Autotracker return. The correction did not impact the ranking. However, it did push Foghorn's 2007-2008 return over the 20% mark. Congrats Foghorn!-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 23 May 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 30 May 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 20 Jun 2008.

Sorry for the posting lapse. I was on TDY, got sick, and then lightning fried our DSL.:laugh:

Wow, the Safetyguy is now in the top five in every chart! Talk about consistency. Congratulations.----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 27 June 2008.

Safetyguy has the best two year return at 14.27%.

Griffin has the best three year return at 30.23%.

Show-me has the best four year return at 45.15%.

However, Pyriel has the best three year and four year risk adjusted returns as measured by the Sharpe Ratio.

Congratulations to all!-----Jim

[rokid]

TSPers are not the only investors having a tough time in this market. Check out the 6 and 12 month returns of these experts!:nuts:----Jim

http://seekingalpha.com/article/83121-guru-returns-show-just-how-tough-the-going-has-been-lately

[JTH]

Thanks Rokid, that makes me feel a little bit better... :D

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 3 July 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 11 Jul 2008.------Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 18 July 2008.------Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 25 July 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

A special edition of the Long Term tallies from Ocracoke Island, NC. The market doesn't seem so bad when you're on a deck, looking out at the ocean, and drinking a rum and coke. :laugh:----Jim

[ATCJeff]

A special edition of the Long Term tallies from Ocracoke Island, NC. The market doesn't seem so bad when you're on a deck, looking out at the ocean, and drinking a rum and coke. :laugh:----Jim

That's not very nice at all! I'm jealous.:D

[rokid]

That's not very nice at all! I'm jealous.:D

Good!

We've starting going to Ocracoke every year on our anniversary. This year was our 30th.

These are pictures from last year. However, the view was still the same this year. :laugh:-----Jim

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29367882@N02/2744689239/

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 8 Aug 2008. Boxholder and RichC10 have been delisted. Therefore, they no longer appear on the Long Term Tally. :(-----Jim

[Miss Piggy]

Good!

We've starting going to Ocracoke every year on our anniversary. This year was our 30th.

These are pictures from last year. However, the view was still the same this year. :laugh:-----Jim

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29367882@N02/2744689239/
Nice pics Jim but I was hoping to catch a glimpse of one of my favorite financial gurus - I didn't see you there.

[luv2read]

Lovely, just lovely! Thanks for sharing, Jim!:)

[rokid]

Nice pics Jim but I was hoping to catch a glimpse of one of my favorite financial gurus - I didn't see you there.

I didn't want to undermine my guru status with my true identity. However, Miss Piggy, just for you. :)----Jim

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29367882@N02/2744689239/

[Miss Piggy]

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj217/mptsp/smileys/lol/200504.gifGood one Jim! Thanks for the good laugh.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 15 Aug 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

Many newbies ask whether they should put all of their money in the L2040 or do something else. Frequently they are advised to put their money in the L2040 and to watch and learn from the traders. Once they're expert and confident enough, they can "manage", i.e. actively trade their accounts.

However, the attached shows that the L2040 has generally out performed the average TSPTalk trader over the last two, three, and four year periods.

Therefore, as the TSP Board advocates, the L2040 is a very viable long term strategy for aggressively managing a TSP retirement account.

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 22 Aug 2008. Copter Doc, Knot Guilty, and Thunder5 have been delisted.

Note that over the last three years, the I Fund return has barely beat (less than 1%) the F Fund return. Of course, over the last four years, the I Fund has been superior by a comfortable margin.------Jim

[rokid]

TSPGo_com noticed Ebb-TSP's 2008 return was incorrect on the two year tally. The attached shows the correct value which sends Ebb_TSP from 4th to 15th. -----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 29 Aug 2008.-----Jim

[rokid]

The Long Term Tallies for 5 Sep 2008.-----Jim

[ATCJeff]

What happen to Rokid ? I miss his long term tallies!

[tsptalk]

What happen to Rokid ? I miss his long term tallies!
I ran some cleanup scripts the other day and I am wondering if it did some damage to his posts. I'll email Rokid and see what's up.

[Mike]

Therefore, as the TSP Board advocates, the L2040 is a very viable long term strategy for aggressively managing a TSP retirement account.
This is precisely why I parked my money in there as soon as the fund transfer caps were put in place.

Crimony I haven't posted here in a long time. :toung:

[Show-me]

This is precisely why I parked my money in there as soon as the fund transfer caps were put in place.

Crimony I haven't posted here in a long time. :toung:

Holy crap, he lives!!! I heard you were being held captive by a herd of scantly clad beautiful women. I've been trying to raise money for your ransom and got $3 so far.:nuts::laugh:

Nice seeing one of the old crew!

[tsptalk]

Originally Posted by rokid http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=176086#post176086)

Many newbies ask whether they should put all of their money in the L2040 or do something else...

....However, the attached shows that the L2040 has generally out performed the average TSPTalk trader over the last two, three, and four year periods.

Therefore, as the TSP Board advocates, the L2040 is a very viable long term strategy for aggressively managing a TSP retirement account.

This is precisely why I parked my money in there as soon as the fund transfer caps were put in place.

Hi Mike! Long time....

Unfortunately, the L2040 had not had the pleasure of being around during a bear market so it's no wonder the 2, 3, and 4 years returns look good. This year it is getting pounded for the first time and most TSP Talkers have sat on the sidelines, so the comparisons are going to change. And the longer this bear market continues, the more the TSP Talkers will take advantage of their flexibility, and the L2040 will not.

Meet us in The Lounge forum to catch us up on what's going on with you!

[peterson82]

As a person new to having funds, I will keep it in L2040. I know what you mean by flexibility with this bear market, but I would certainly pull something if I tried it!

[Mike]

Holy crap, he lives!!! I heard you were being held captive by a herd of scantly clad beautiful women. I've been trying to raise money for your ransom and got $3 so far.:nuts::laugh:
I'd gladly give up my freedom to be in such a predicament. :laugh:
Nice seeing one of the old crew!
Thanks. :p

Tom - will do.

And the 2040 - or any target date fund far in the future will get killed in any bear market. That's the nature of the beast when you're aggressive. At any rate, the most important thing is contributing a lot over a long period. What will be interesting to see is how the comparisons look when you include the last bull + this bear + the next bull. That'll put all the pieces together as far as timing long term bottoms and tops. The rallies and declines have been awfully steep of late.

[tsptalk]

I know what you mean by flexibility with this bear market, but I would certainly pull something if I tried it!
LOL - :laugh:

[ATCJeff]

Tom where's Rokid?

[tsptalk]

Still no word. Are you ready to step in?

[ATCJeff]

Still no word. Are you ready to step in?

I'm ready and willing to serve, SIR!:D

[Miss Piggy]

Tom where's Rokid?
It seems like we lost rokid. That’s such a shame. He provided insightful statistics that benefited all of us thru much hard work.

We can only hope he’ll show up again sometime in the future.
http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj217/mptsp/smileys/sad/SAD1_S12.gif

[ATCJeff]

It seems like we lost rokid. That’s such a shame. He provided insightful statistics that benefited all of us thru much hard work. We can only hope he’ll show up again sometime in the future.http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj217/mptsp/smileys/sad/SAD1_S12.gif



I agree. Hope everything is ok with Rokid. In the meantime, I told Tom I would fill in/takeover for Rokid and keep the longterm tally.

[Miss Piggy]

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj217/mptsp/smileys/happy/cool.gif ATCJeff!