JOBS REPORT

Is anyone worried about the job report for August that comes out next Friday? I am thinking about bailing out of my small 5% stake in S, C and I Fund on Thursday (2 Sep) and take my meagergain from investing on 13 Aug.

The BLS keeps lowering the numbers...now between 100K and 125K for the month but my concerning is 150K new people come into job pool so we are not even hitting that low goal. If the job report comes in at 32K again we could be in for a big hurting again on 3 Sep. However if the BLS keeps lowering the estimate we will have to hit it sometime.

I read a report from a think tank organization that believes the numbers will come in lower then July based on feeder report from the state governments. That would be very bad.

I guess what I am trying to say, what do you guys think? All I know this is a very hard market...sort of like the mid 70s to the middle of the 80s the DOW bounced around 1000 for 16 years. Now we are stuck on 10,000.

Getting out of the market next Thursday may be the way to go. Remember my title is markettimer and that is what I try to do is to avoid large one day dips, when possible on market noise.

Jobless claims rose for the first time in four weeks.The August job report is setting up for a worse job report then July. That would turn this rally that started last week down. It is possilbe if my prediction becomes true all the gains we have seen will evaporate on 3 Sep.

Please chime in on this, this job report will way on the Fed raising rate and the election.

Good hunting!

MT

P.S. I am shorting the heck out of Krispy Creme before the earnings report comes out! Should make a couple Gs today on that. Boya!

Boya!!!



http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/edit.gif (http://edit.finance.yahoo.com/e5a?.vk=s&.intl=us&.done=http%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yaho o.com%2Fq%3Fs%3DKKD%26d%3Dt)











Pre-Market (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=KKD) (RTM/ECN): 12.65 http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif2.71 (17.64%)[/b]
My short order was in last night. It is to the point how greedy do I want to be and if the other guy put a stop order in to knock me out. If they did not put a stop order in I am bailing at (20%) which is a gain of $2,000 for me.

It is easier to short then go long in this market. If you miss earnings or make earnings your stock ishammered if you are above earnings your stock goes no where. This fells like a bear market to me kids.

Good hunting!

MT

[Rod]

MarketTimer wrote:
The August job report is setting up for a worse job report then July.


I don't doubt you. I may do the same. Do you have any linksdiscussing this?

Hot Rod,

I have been reading newspapers from different states, a taste:

Job growth stunted (http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_3138021,00.html)
Rocky Mountain News,CO- 7 hours ago
... lost 6,200 positions from January to July, compared with ... same period in 2003, according to Silverstein's data. ... With those jobs, employment still would be lower ...





Missouri leads in job loss (http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/9456226.htm)
Kansas City Star (subscription),MO- Aug 21, 2004
... of any state — according to data released Friday ... Overall, payroll employment nationwide stood at nearly 131.3 ... From July 2003 to July 2004, payrolls grew in ...


Also over the weekend there was 3000 jobs offered in LA and over 300K people applied.

Aug. 20, 2004

Union and shipping company officials at the Port of Los Angeles held a lottery Thursday to fill 3,000 longshore jobs. More than 300,000 people applied for the dangerous but lucrative jobs. Results of the lottery will be posted on the Web Friday.

I saw a report on Lou Dobbs that a think tank based on state employment reports are guessing the employment numbers will be lower then the July 2004 report of 32K.

Good hunting!

MT

[tsptalk]

MarketTimer wrote:
Is anyone worried about the job report for August that comes out next Friday?
We have now shrugged off the last bad report. I don't know about getting out. It could be a ho hum. I'll give it more thought.

Tom,

I hate to sound like a broken record but rallies on low volume and down turns on high volume is a bear market. That job report on 3 September could lose the election for Pres Bush. I am also concerned about the yield curves going inverted on us. That happened Jan 00.

Also the trend of lower highs and higher lows is not very bullish either - we keep going down the sloop.

This is a bad trend:

http://chart.yahoo.com/c/6m/_/_dji.gif

[tsptalk]

The test will come after Labor Day when the volume should pick up. If "The Boys", as they are called, come back from vacation and sell, I'll be worried. If we continue up, it will bea green light for the rest of us.

[tsptalk]

More on volume...
I have been saying this rally on low volume is nothing to worry about and that this week, and last, are typically very low volume weeks. I don't think this is an indication of a bear market (as MT suggested) it is just the way August goes.

Today's 72 point drop was on the lowest volume of the year. Does that put us back in the bull market MT? ;)

[nnuut]

Well, I "chickened out" Friday, i'm "G" until I can see GOOD! The only thing I see good is Oil and that is or may change really fast after the Iraq thingy. All we need now is Vodka Oil to go bad again! Do you think the convention will affect the market in the + or- ?:h

[Mike]

I don't think the convention will do much either way to the market. If the market is shrugging off pertinent economic data, why on earth would it pay attention to a bunch of political hot air in New York? :P

By the way, I just read an article stating that consumer spending rose by 0.7% in July, which follows a revised 0.2% decline in June (which was about a half point better than the original number that was released for that month). However, evidence is pointing to this spending being fueled at least in part by lots of borrowing at the currently low rates... which serves a gigantic red flag for the future economic health of this country unless hiring and wages pick up some steam.

Mike,

I agree with your post. I live in HI and there are problems looming on the horizon with regards to the housing bubble. Folks that work with me are getting their home insurance premiums and they have gone up on average 28% from last year. My car insurance has gone up 18% and my car has depreciate (per IRS guidance) by 8%. Properly taxes here have increased 12% and car registration has gone up nearly 32%. The issue is a lot of folks have refinanced their home loans and took cash out and did not lock in the lower rates and instead took out ARMs. Now they have spent the cash, lost money in the market and now are faced with higher daily living expenses they did not plan for. Such as the ones above and gas going from 1.82 per gallon to 2.25 per gallon for the cheap stuff. Now when I get gas I see a lot of folks purchasing $1 gallon of gas and not going to the mall anymore. I went to the mall last weekend and about every third store was having a going out of business sell. There was no lines for starbucks and the food court were empty. The back to schools sells where a joke...I went to Walmart and Costco and had the store to myself. The last time I saw this was the late 1999.

Horde cash and plan for the worse.

Good hunting!

MT

Today's 72 point drop was on the lowest volume of the year. Does that put us back in the bull market MT?

NO! The drop was on great news. Oil prices fell hard and stocks sold off. Consumer spending increased (I believe this was folks buying out stores prior to Charley...my cousin went to the store for water and the place was sold out). Since Charley effected most of the East coast there was a lot of panic bulk buying going on but the number did go up.

I am concerned about the job report and the bad news the rest of the week that I talked about and another post. The fed is going to increase tightening, the car reports this week will be bad, intel will hurt the market, the economy is slowing and corporate earnings will slow and P/Es have not been adjusted for higher oil (from 25 to 40s).

Good luck all!

MT

Mike wrote:
I don't think the convention will do much either way to the market. If the market is shrugging off pertinent economic data, why on earth would it pay attention to a bunch of political hot air in New York? :P

Good call Mike. I wanna be like Mike! Wait a minute, my name is Mike toooooo. Guess I am like Mike because I felt the same way. :^

[Mike]

Interesting news: 144,000 jobs were added in August - slightly below what economists forecast (150,000). The government also revised the payroll figures upward a bit for both June and July.

Could this news combined with the news that the hurricane is weakening help the market today? Stay tuned...

[Cinderella]

Hurricane Frances, expected to hit Millionaire's row within 36 hrs, will pick-up speed and power as it passes over the warm water today. As for the market, I haven't read or heard anything that will make the bull run today. Has anyone?

[Spaf]

OK

No nitpicking,.....lets stand back and take a look at the big picture. [You can even mouse up and take a peak at MTs chart on the market, DJ INDU,, or any current market chart of the S&P variety].

What is it telling us? What are the facts? No emotions, just facts!

What is the market doing?

The market by (this) week seems to trend up, and last week too. Could it go down? sure it could! As of 10:20 CT the market was a little down, as of yesterday it was up, as of the last several days it was up. The moving average for 15 days indicated that the market is up. In the past months the market has cycled up and down. There were times when you could make money, and times for lossing $. The bull market of 2003 changed about the 1Q of 2004. Has it beena 5, month correction or what? Don't know cause I'm not a xpert. Probably, there are a lot of opinions.

The good thing about TSP is the computerized allocation transfer. If the numbers are not in my interest, I can effect a change, one day, two days at the most.

The major precaution, is to stay informed, and take a look at the big picture. Don't get stuck on the small things. I know Intel in not small, but in perspective, I would not want to focus on Intel, if major oil pipelines were ablaze.

Careful, but have a good day!:)

[Rod]

Cinderella wrote:
Hurricane Frances, expected to hit Millionaire's row within 36 hrs, will pick-up speed and power as it passes over the warm water today. As for the market, I haven't read or heard anything that will make the bull run today. Has anyone?
That's correct. "Weakening" doesn't mean it going to make landfall in that state. It could very well regain CAT 4 status or higherbefore it makes landfall. Also keep in mind, just because the winds may have weakened, you still have the rains to deal with even if itwere to regressto a Tropical Storm status.

Locally, Florida can expect up to 20 inches out of Frances. Flooding can be even more destructive than the winds. It's the storm surge that claims the majority of lives.

Also, it is a lot bigger than Charley was, more spread out, so that means more collateral damage. Get out of Florida now...........:end:

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Also, it is a lot bigger than Charley was, more spread out, so that means more collateral damage. Get out of Florida now...........:end:
It's even larger than Andrew was.http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/emoticons/end.gif

[Mike]

I Fund took the biggest hit today (15 cents). F, C, and S all dropped about 5 cents.

Max sustained winds for Frances are down to 105 mph now - so there is very little chance of it regaining category 4 strength. Storm surge won't be nearly as big of a problem as it could have been had the storm retained its 140 mph winds of a couple days ago.

However, it has slowed down - it is only drifting along at 6 mph. That means pretty much the entire state of FL will be dumped on... hopefully an upper level trough will come along in the next day or two and pick this thing up and kick it out.

Mike,

Hurricanes slow down when they hit land. Afterthe Bahammasthe Hurricane will be in deep, warm water again. The slower hurricane speed even withlowers winds will pack a large punch and that is a huge concern. Anyone buy orange futures? $58 to $79 in two weeks. I got in at $59 and am holding tight.

Not to be morid. But my REIT fund has gone from 16.08 to 17.09 since Charley. Like in the movie the 5th Element. Growth happens with destruction. I think he said when he broke the glass...see all these littles things that go to work with destruction.

Good luck to all the Floridians on this board. My prays and blessing are with you.

MT

Spaf,

I appreciate your post. The market rallied on Tuesday on the S&P 500 index rebalancing (forcing index fund managers to purchase stocks). The market rallied on Thursday based on the rumour from someone or somewhere that the job report was going to be gang busters. I would love to know if those two events did not happen where would the market would of finished for the week. I believe Friday is the true picture of what is going on with the economy. 100K new jobs over three months is 150K less then we need to grow this economy. Intel reports of raising inventories while cutting prices is a very bad sign. Layoffs and lower pay raises moving forward.

My short term outlook is the market to have a RNC bounce. I will sell into that bounce. If the big guys come in on Tuesday and start selling I will get out immediately. Let us hope X Pres Clinton has a successful heart surgey. If not that will be a hit to the market. Not to be morbid but you have to look at what will be good and what will be bad.

For those in stocks lets hope for a RNC rally for at least a couple days.

MT

wrote:

OK

No nitpicking,.....lets stand back and take a look at the big picture. [You can even mouse up and take a peak at MTs chart on the market, DJ INDU,, or any current market chart of the S&P variety].

What is it telling us? What are the facts? No emotions, just facts!

What is the market doing?