World Equities markets headed lower - Into G-Fund

[billpritjr]

The SP 500, NASDAQ, Japan Nikkei, and London FTSE are all deteriorating and heading lower, as indicated on their charts.

The US Markets, the SP 500 (C-Fund), and Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund), are beginning what appears to be a new downtrend.

I moved out of C/S and into "safe haven" G-fund. Better scoop up 3% in G rather than take 10, 15, 25% hits in the stock funds.

A 20% loss requires 40% gain to GET EVEN AGAIN. How many years till retirement for you guys? Do you have that much time? Can you wait around for that 40% just to GET EVEN AGAIN?

Hold on, lots of people will say "dollar cost averaging", buy more on the way down, its cheaper. America did that with Enron and Worldcom, didn't they.

Let me ask the real estate investors out there:

You want to invest in a house, with the obvious goal being that the house appreciate in value.

Neighborhood A = Houses falling apart, prices going down, and people moving out.

Neighborhood B = Nice houses, expensive houses, but steady price climb and people moving in.

What neighborhood you going to buy in?

Same thing with stocks.

Don't buy stuff on the way down.

I am into G-fund as of last week

Good Luck

Bill
GS-13

[tsptalk]

You want to invest in a house, with the obvious goal being that the house appreciate in value.
Neighborhood A = Houses falling apart, prices going down, and people moving out.
Neighborhood B = Nice houses, expensive houses, but steady price climb and people moving in.
What neighborhood you going to buy in?
Sometimes a fixer-upper is your best investment :).

Welcome bill! Thanks for joining us.

Tom

[billpritjr]

Hey TOm thanks

just came across the site, I am another market geek, so here I am

take care

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote:

You want to invest in a house, with the obvious goal being that the house appreciate in value.
Neighborhood A = Houses falling apart, prices going down, and people moving out.
Neighborhood B = Nice houses, expensive houses, but steady price climb and people moving in.
What neighborhood you going to buy in?
Sometimes a fixer-upper is your best investment :).

Welcome bill! Thanks for joining us.

Tom

:^

[oneyoungbuck]

I have to agree with Bill at this point. I went 100%G for Monday, enough is enough. Yes the Market will come back but why take the beating that we have been receiving lately. Its not like the Market is going to jump 2% in one day. Its going to come back a little at a time. So, just sit back and wait for a consistent climb.

How long do you wait? On May 17th the S was at 12.16 and 6 days later it was 12.71, a 4.5% increase. And yes, we can and do get 2% increases in a day. May 24th to May 25th was a 1.92% increase.

How about this month? On July 26th we were at 12.18. Five days later on Aug 2nd we were at 12.51. Would you have "jumped" in then? We are sitting at 11.87 now?

Sooner or later, youeither have to take a chance or just wait it out like I'm doing.......

[puertorico]

crude oil - 45.98

ready to hit 46,not helping the market...:?

[oneyoungbuck]

Look, I am no expert but the Market has showed no signs of making a Big move up. Oil prices are killing us and all these big conglomerates are not making money because our economy has stalled. All I am saying is the beating we are taking is not necessary. Maybe you have the funds to take this hit but thats why we have interfund transfers. Sure it is very difficult to Market time but it does not take a rocket scientist to figure this one out.

[Timer]

Greetings all! Once again thanks Tom for this wonderful site, great to commiserate with you all.

I see people tending to make moves toward the G fund in this envirnment for preservation's sake and I understand. Question: wouldn't you rather be in the F fund? As a broad general rule don't bonds trend up in a down stock market?

[billpritjr]

Please see attached chart of SP 500 (which C-fund tracks)

You invest in C when the 50-day line crosses the 200-day, go to G (the safest of the safe, to include bonds) when the 50-day goes back down thru the 200-day

Using the chart:

NOV 2000 - OUT of C, into G, safe
NOV 2000 to JUNE 2003 - drinking margaritas on beach safe in G-fund, everyone else gets creamed
JUNE 2003 - BACK IN C

this is a classic "technical analysis" tool which will keep you "in-line" with the major trend. You will never be exact to the very day of the turn, but if you can get off the train and into safe-haven, then thats good enough.

Remember, 50% loss requires 100% gain to get EVEN

Joe buys ACME stock at $50 a share. He is a buy-and-holder.

He lets it go down to $25 and finally the pain is too much. He sells

50 - 25 = 25, or a 50% reduction.

to get BACK to 50 (starting point), he needs to get 100% gain. $25 a share X 100% = 25. 25+25 = back to 50

Not like some believe, he lost 50% so he needs 50% to get even

He is now at $25. 25 X 50% = 12.50........12.5 + 25 = 37.50 (not the original 50)

into G-fund

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
How long do you wait? On May 17th the S was at 12.16 and 6 days later it was 12.71, a 4.5% increase. And yes, we can and do get 2% increases in a day. May 24th to May 25th was a 1.92% increase.

How about this month? On July 26th we were at 12.18. Five days later on Aug 2nd we were at 12.51. Would you have "jumped" in then? We are sitting at 11.87 now?

Sooner or later, youeither have to take a chance or just wait it out like I'm doing.......



I'm still in there with ya, MM.:^ We'll ride this one out together, and hopefully reap some rewards in the end.

[Timer]

billpritjr wrote:

You invest in C when the 50-day line crosses the 200-day, go to G (the safest of the safe, to include bonds) when the 50-day goes back down thru the 200-day

So you ping back and forth between the C and G, never F,S or I? You never have a time you go to F?

[Rolo]

Welcome, Bill!

I am going to have to agree with Mr. Bill there. Real estate was a good corrolary.

Having learned the hard way (read: had my butt handed to me), I see no point losing 10-20% in order to gain the 2% spurts. I've been watching the ants whilst a herd of elephants stampede towards me.

[Rod]

Sux to be in G about now.

I'm glad I stayed the course.:^

[Rod]

Rod wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
How long do you wait? On May 17th the S was at 12.16 and 6 days later it was 12.71, a 4.5% increase. And yes, we can and do get 2% increases in a day. May 24th to May 25th was a 1.92% increase.

How about this month? On July 26th we were at 12.18. Five days later on Aug 2nd we were at 12.51. Would you have "jumped" in then? We are sitting at 11.87 now?

Sooner or later, youeither have to take a chance or just wait it out like I'm doing.......




I'm still in there with ya, MM.:^ We'll ride this one out together, and hopefully reap some rewards in the end.




We're reaping, Buddy!:^

;)

[Mike]

I've stayed the course 55% C / 45% S since the end of June... it's good to see a rally with some staying power at long last. :)

[AKROCKET]

I did the exact oposite this week. KAAACHING!!!

[AKROCKET]

The exact oposite of billpritjr that is.....

[Rod]

AKROCKET wrote:
The exact oposite of billpritjr that is.....


You just have to be willing to ride out the storms... because the sun is bound to shine sooner or later.

And yes, the storm clouds will gather again... but stay focused on that "pot of gold" at the end of the rainbow!:^

What do you think about next week Rod? Tom said week after options week is typically low. I may abandon ship for a little bit.................

[puertorico]

I'm thinking to get out too and come back wed or thursday nex week.

Becouse of options can put a big day down.

u never know:?if that happen u start behind again...:D

[puertorico]

take out off the table :^

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
What do you think about next week Rod? Tom said week after options week is typically low. I may abandon ship for a little bit.................



Historical chartshaven't been faithful latley, have they?

If anything, oil prices may continue to rise. I'll take my chances, though.

I'm staying put.;)

[billpritjr]

here is a linkfor those who think "hold for the long term" is correct, especially in the post Enron, post WorldCom world we live in

http://www.turtletrader.com/the-big-lie.html

I am NOT advocating any particular method or strategy, however it would do all of us a favor to turn off Motley Fool and change the channel from CNBC

[Pete1]

There is a difference between a truly diversified buy and hold portfolio and following the advice of a stock broker to the point of financial suicide. Loading up on tech stocks and holding through 2000-2002was not buy and hold, it wasgreed and/or ignorance.The 60/40 portfolio that is listed on the returns page is a much better example of a long-term buy and hold portfolio. The retiree mentioned in the article would not have lost even close to that kind of money if he had simply held the simple 60/40 diversified portfolio listed on the returns page through 2000-2002.For god's sakes,he could have simplybought and held Dodge and Cox Balanced fund over those years andposted a positive return.

[rokid]

Welcome back and thank you! Excellent insight as usual. :^

[Pete1]

Rokid, thank you for the kind words :)

[Rolo]

Rod wrote:

You just have to be willing to ride out the storms... because the sun is bound to shine sooner or later.

And yes, the storm clouds will gather again... but stay focused on that "pot of gold" at the end of the rainbow!:^


That's just way too Disney for my taste! :?

I prefer to go where the action is and to leave before it is too late, otherwise you will be stuck, drunk with the ugly chick. :shock:

:dude: <-- Frizz B.
Where's he been anyway?