View Full Version : Rod's Account Talk
I was 100% G. Effective July 23, I will be 100% S. I will stay 100% S until I make up some losses (hopefully),then I will go 30% C 60% S 10% I and see how that goes.
God Bless:^
tsptalk
07-22-2004, 06:54 PM
Hi Rod. Go ahead and create a new topic called just "Rod's Account" and put your transactions and returns there. Then we all can use this "Talk" forumto discuss your strategy and transactions. We do this so we don't clutter up your account and we'll be able to easily go in and see your transfers etc.
Sound good?
Thanks for starting your account. It takes guts to tell the world what you are doing. It can be humbling. I like the fact that you state you are an amateur (which we all are) so others reading can see this account management can be done by anyone.
Tom
tsptalk wrote: I like the fact that you state you are an amateur (which we all are) so others reading can see this account management can be done by anyone.
Yeah, and Frizz B. won't feel hoodwinked, too. :dude: <-- Frizz :D<-- <Grin>
[line]
So, Rod, you are thinking the bargain days are about over then?
I really don't know what to think. Everything has simply been so unpredictable.
But, I do need to make up my losses while hopefully not losing out too much more.
I thought I was all set after Tuesday's gains, then came yesterday.:P
You see, once I make up my losses (hopefully), then I will shift to a long(er) term strategy.
Currently contemplating that strategy to be30%C 60%S 10%I, and let that ride out for a while and see where it takes me.
God Bless:)
GTO1970
07-23-2004, 03:47 AM
Hey Tom,
Just a suggestion, you can Pummel me if you want:(
Maybe you could include a new topic for anyone whowants to particiapate can register the login name, date and fund allocation on the same window maybe like a spread sheet set up that way we can see what the herd is doing and maybe take some pressure off you
Example
DateEffective Login G F C S I
23JUL04 GTO5% 10% 20% 30% 35%
tsptalk
07-23-2004, 04:13 AM
Let me think about that one GTO.
I'd hate to consider us "the herd" since the herd is usaully wrong at market extremes. :) At this point, I don't know where the "uncle" point is to see who is right or wrong. Maybe we'll see if the S&P 500 hits 1000 or 1200 first. At 1000 the bears win, at 1200 the bulls win.
Rod wrote: You see, once I make up my losses (hopefully), then I will shift to a long(er) term strategy.
ehehehe...That sounds much like, "If I get through this, I'll never drink again!"
GTO1970 wrote:
Maybe you could include a new topic for anyone whowants to particiapate can register the login name, date and fund allocation on the same window maybe like a spread sheet set up that way we can see what the herd is doing...
That is an interesting idea...a snapshot of TSPTalkers' accounts.
hmmm....Some PHP code and a SQL table would likely be the easiest way to do that, that way everyone can enter their own stuff. I'll be delving heavily into writing PHP and SQL code soon, so I can tack that onto my list after I gut and replace PTCrew.com.
tsptalk
07-23-2004, 03:23 PM
Rolo wrote: I'll be delving heavily into writing PHP and SQL code soon, so I can tack that onto my list after I gut and replace PTCrew.com.
What are you doing to your PTCrew.com site?
If you figure it out, I may need to hire you. To go along with this site, I have my full time gov't job and get this, my wife and I just opened up an art gallery in that building I bought earlier in the year. I'm spreading myself pretty thin. It may explain my recent market timing inabilities.
:#
Neat, an art gallery! Where? I will have to come by and see it on one of my PT trips.
I hear ya, I am finally just about able to chew all that I have proverbally bitten off!
Two main reasons why PTCrew is getting overhauled: I cannot stand this forum software (like some of my trades, it seemed like a good idea at the time, baha) and the needs of the site outgrew having a forum only. I figured that would happen, but not for about a year; I was nine months off. :D (a good thing)
I thrive on trying new stuff, and building an elaborate site with many bells and whistles is definitely new to my rudimentary webmaster skillz. Particulars here: http://www.ptcrew.com/forums/view_topic.php?id=644&forum_id=20&page=1
My approach is moving from commercial code to OpenSource/GNU. I modded this forum software as much as I can, but open source is much more flexible and mod-able and has the support of an entire community rather than one author. I want to be able to tailor and customise pretty much everything and add just about anything.
Where I am now is learning to write PHP code (modifying is one thing, writing from scratch is another) to convert the current forum's SQL database to the new forum's database format; a simple import/export is inadequate. One learns much more when you have a real objective rather than "exercises" or "labs", much like "necessity is the mother of invention".
Fully customizable themes is a big bonus, too. A preview: http://www.ptcrew.com/v2/
haha, Oh, sorry, Rod, for the threadjack! :) You were saying 30C/60S/10I...
tsptalk
07-23-2004, 04:20 PM
I'd like to talk more about it Rolo. Let's give Rod his forum back and move our discussion here >> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=375&forum_id=13
I think I'm going to try a short term strategy effective Thursday:
40% C 50%S 10%I
In the past, I said that once I made up my losses in the S Fund, I would diversify a bit more. Well, today was a great day. Since I will be 100% F effective tomorrow, that shouldn't hurt me if stocks don't do that great tomorrow.
I will at least come away with today's great gains, and not worry about losing them tomorrow.
God Bless:^
Change of plans:
40%G 60%I effective Thursday. The I is due a gain soon.
God Bless:^
Rod wrote: The I is due a gain soon.
You may want to use the FRO for that. It looks like I may get a little cheaper first.
C is cheap and S is really cheap right now.
Yeah, I'm set to buy 100% S on Friday.
Effective Friday:
Payday allocation: 100%S
Interfund Transfer: 40%C 60%S
Effective Monday, 2 Aug:
30%C 50%S 20%I
tsptalk
07-30-2004, 11:56 PM
You're worse than I am with all these transactions. :)Are you keeping track of your returns?
tsptalk wrote: You're worse than I am with all these transactions. :)Are you keeping track of your returns?
I basically print out my balance each day to see what I gained- keeping it simple.
I HATE math, so I don't get fancy about it with percentages and all.
I just use Quicken to tell me what my IRR (Internal Rate of Return, annualised) is for any given period.
I have to manually update Quicken and the FRO spreadsheet; I do not want to update another thing.
Also, you have to take your contributions into account; you cannot just take the beginning balance and ending balance to calculate your gain/loss.
Rolo wrote: Also, you have to take your contributions into account; you cannot just take the beginning balance and ending balance to calculate your gain/loss.
Of course... I take everything into account.
Rod wrote: Of course... I take everything into account.
Merely subtracting your contributions from the end-of-monthbalance won't compensate, either, the rate will still be inaccurate.
tsptalk
08-01-2004, 03:04 AM
Rolo wrote: Also, you have to take your contributions into account; you cannot just take the beginning balance and ending balance to calculate your gain/loss.
Although I should, I don't do that. Mainly for the sake of simplicity for me and foranyone watching, I treat my account returns as if I never add money. Just like the $100,000 hypothetical balances we use in the members' accounts.
Rolo wrote: Merely subtracting your contributions from the end-of-monthbalance won't compensate, either, the rate will still be inaccurate.
Who said I only do it at the end of the month???
I do it daily.
To reitterate, I merely look at my balance from day to day, tracking it that way.
You must understand Rolo, some of us aren't as technical about it as you are with graphs and all. That's a cool thing, and I'm not knocking it. But,as Tom stated, I like simplicity. ;)
Rod wrote: You must understand Rolo, some of us aren't as technical about it as you are with graphs and all.
Baha! nono...Quicken does all the work for me. Simplicity is right...I hate math, take too long to do it, and do not want to fiddle with spreadsheets unless I absolutely have to. (copy/paste TSP share prices into the FRO is about it)
I input my TSP share values about every other day or so to update my TSP and I click "Update" to automatically update everything else online. I just click on stuff already in Quickenfor all the pretty charts and such.
Rolo wrote: Rod wrote: You must understand Rolo, some of us aren't as technical about it as you are with graphs and all.
Baha! nono...Quicken does all the work for me. Simplicity is right...I hate math, take too long to do it, and do not want to fiddle with spreadsheets unless I absolutely have to. (copy/paste TSP share prices into the FRO is about it)
I input my TSP share values about every other day or so to update my TSP and I click "Update" to automatically update everything else online. I just click on stuff already in Quickenfor all the pretty charts and such.
Well then, you da man!:D
As I stated in another topic:
I refuse to become upset any further over the market. It's only money "on paper", and it's bound to bounce back sooner or later.
So, in the interim, I'm staying the course until I see GREEN.;)
30%C 50%S 20%I
I'll play the "odd man out" and stay invested through next week while the majority of folks seek shelter in G.
;)
Rod wrote:
It's only money "on paper",
Which is fine and dandy until that changes. :(
It's not about the money, though, it is about personal successes and failures.
Anybody stay invested with me this week?
I"m still ya! I'm 100% S right now, but am considering a move to C. I think S was helped last week by being options week. Most analysts are calling for growth stocks to out-perform value stocks for the rest of the year. But what do they know right? ;)
Timer
08-24-2004, 03:12 AM
mlk_man wrote: Most analysts are calling for growth stocks to out-perform value stocks for the rest of the year. But what do they know right? ;)
m_m, so I understand, do value stocks correspond to the S fund and growth funds to the C?
tsptalk
08-24-2004, 03:20 AM
Timer wrote: m_m, so I understand, do value stocks correspond to the S fund and growth funds to the C?
The other way. Growth = S fund
tsptalk wrote: Timer wrote: m_m, so I understand, do value stocks correspond to the S fund and growth funds to the C?
The other way. Growth = S fundHmmmm, now I'm confused!!! I thought it was growth = C fund(large caps) and value = S fund (small caps)? Small caps are cheaper so I thought this is why they were called value stocks? Large caps are more expensive but are more stable and provide growth over a certain period? Please help me out here Tom.......
Actually I may have spoken too soon. Can we even our funds either value or growth funds? They do have both "value" and "growth" large cap funds and "value" and "growth" small funds correct? Please help clarify this if you can.
Regardless, some of the analysts I have been tracking think that the Nasdaq will out perform the other indexes for the rest of the year. So that being the case, would it be better to be in the S fund or the C fund? I realize they track different stocks, but I'm thinking the S would be better now. Though I'm not sure, :*
tsptalk
08-24-2004, 02:12 PM
S is more growth oriented but you are right, both the C and S funds have value and growth stocks in them. In general the Nasdaq 100 strength will help the C fund but the Nasdaq tends to help the smaller caps more. That wasn't so true in 1999-2000 but as I said, in general.
Growth and value are pretty much mutually exclusive.
Small companies (S Fund) have high growth rates and usually sell at a premium (higher P/E ratio) because of it.
Larger companies (C Fund) no longer have high growth rates and therefore do not have the high expectations and coinciding P/E ratios, hence "value".
There is, however, another more accurate usage for "value stock" and that is one that is undervalued, sells for less than it is actually worth. Buffett likes those and so did Lynch. Think of these as the house nobody wants to buy because it is "haunted" and therefore the price is cheap.
Timer
08-31-2004, 02:15 AM
Rod wrote: 100% G effective 31 Aug.
C'mon Rod, you usually stick these things out. It's just a breather, it's going up. (Am I trying to convince myself?)
Still hanging with ya timer..............:#
Timer and Milk,
Good luck. I am with Hot Rod (100% G Fund). This is not Vegas...the risk reward is againstus right now:end:(I feel).
MT
Yesterday's pullback was "expected", I still think we'll be okay. Unless of course the RNC get's blown up or something. But I really don't see that happening. It's been almost 3 years since 9/11. Anything happen? I think New York was a great call. You know the people that live are "looking for anything suspicious". :shock:
Milk,
The rest of the week:
Tuesday morning, the Conference Board, a private research firm, will release its closely watched gauge of consumer confidence for August. Economists expect the index to dip to 103 from 106.1 in July. (bad news)
Also on Tuesday, NAPM-Chicago will release its index of August business activity in the Chicago region. Economists expect the index to fall to 60 from 64.7 in July. (bad news)
Wednesday morning brings the Institute for Supply Management's gauge of national manufacturing activity in August. Economists expect the index to dip to 59.9 from 62 in July. (bad news)
Thursday morning, the Labor Department will report on new jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 28. Claims rose to 343,000 in the week ending Aug. 21. (last thursday was bad because of a bad report) Repeat?
In a separate report, the department will publish its revised estimate of productivity growth in the second quarter. Economists expect productivity grew at a revised 2.8 percent rate, versus an initial reading of 2.9 percent. (bad news)
Friday morning brings the August report on unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect payrolls grew by 150,000 jobs, compared with 32,000 in July. The jobless rate, generated by a separate survey (http://www.bls.gov/cps/ces_cps_trends.pdf), is expected to hold steady at 5.5 percent. (could be very horrible). WIth the unemployment claims raising I see a miss again. Bad thing 150K is the amount of new people coming into the job market - if we can not even make that job growth the economy is not growing but stagnant - in my opionion.
Later Friday morning, the ISM releases its gauge of service-sector activity in August. That index is expected to dip to 62 from 64.8 in July. (more bad news)
The risk reward to me looks negative.
MT
Always the pessimist!! LOL Just kidding, even if we do pullback all week, I don't expect it to be much. We'll get it back and then some next week. Bad news is good news right? :P
Milk,
What are your thoughts on the job report? I feel if we have a bad week then a horrible job report a lot of folks are going to chuck the towel in. Both I hope for the best for you. I just feel there are times to be in the market and times to hunker down and see a positive trend.
MT
I''m not all that worried about jobs reports. From what I remember, most companies beat expectations for the 2Q. That should factor into more jobs later no?
Timer wrote: Rod wrote: 100% G effective 31 Aug.
C'mon Rod, you usually stick these things out. It's just a breather, it's going up. (Am I trying to convince myself?)
I know I do... but my "gut" told me to "hide".
Famous last works Milk.
"I am not worried about the job report."
IMO - this is the make or break for Pres Bush. If we get a horrible report like last month (dow fell 169, NASDAQ 44) that will sway a lot of undecided.
Companies do not make reports. State governments report to the fed gov (BLS) who compiles the report. From what I remember the weekly unemployment reports have been pretty bad the previous three weeks.
News for August 2004:
Nortel reported a couple thousand lay offs.
Disney reported big lay offs.
Bank of America reported big lay offs.
Fleet Bank reported big lay offs
Lycos laid of 20%
Toys R' Us reported lay offs
for the month of August (just a flavor). I did not see many stories of hirings for August. Have you???
I wish you well. Risk reward is not tilted in the right way to me right now.
Good luck!
MT
Hey MT, when do you plan to get invested again?
Rod,
I am thinking about putting my toe into the F fund. Because if we keep getting bad economic data the yield on the 10 year will continue to drop and the NAV will go up. A bad job report will really be a boon to this fund. I want to see what Intel has to say later in the week. I probably am going to regret not taking hoping in now but the lowering of the oil prices should be bad for the F fund.
Capital preservation is the goal at this point.
Take care!
MT
Timer
08-31-2004, 10:11 PM
MarketTimer wrote: I am thinking about putting my toe into the F fund.
MT, I may be off base in my interpretation, but seems like our buds on this site are biased toward stock funds. I've made lots of money in F in dog down markets over the years.
Comments from the gallery?
Thanx guys!:^
Yes, comments please???:dude:
Rod/Timer,
Not to make excuses but I have been sick since last Friday (running a 102fever). When I was going to G Fund 31 Aug (that I stated last week) it was partly based on the S&P 500 fund changes and that index fundHAD to buys stocks 31 Aug to have their holdings in line with the index. I totally spaced it until I saw the stock market take off at 3:45PM, I said ALL CRAP! This effect will happen at the end of next month to for the end of the quarter reports - expect the last 15 minutes to be window dressing buying - that is a good day to be vested in the U.S. stock funds. I had it written now on my note page with two big stars S&P 500 REBALANCE - 31 AUG 04. DARN! I will not make that mistake again...but I just wanted to point it out to you guys that is something to look for if you want to time the market.
I am going to bet against the market and have gone 10% F fund and 10% I fund effective the close today. I should of done this effective yesterday but I have not been thinking straight. I will be in this until at least through the week.I will be in bed trying to recover from this sickness and hopefully have a better pulse on the market.
Have a great week!
MT
MarketTimer wrote: Milk,
What are your thoughts on the job report? I feel if we have a bad week then a horrible job report a lot of folks are going to chuck the towel in. Both I hope for the best for you. I just feel there are times to be in the market and times to hunker down and see a positive trend.
MT
Well apparently it isn't the job report that is bringing down the house today, but something sure is. Intel? Yukos? Hurricane? Little of each? Remember that on average, the week following the RNC is down. Be careful. Be interesting to see what happens when the big investors start investing again. Up? Down? Who knows. I'll be sitting on the sidelines waiting for coach to put me in. As usual! ;)
Still 100% G. Thank GOD, since the TSP office is "down" due to Ivan!
Rod wrote: 100% S effective 20 Oct.
BAD MOVE.
I'm back:
30% C
50% S
20% I
I'm trying out anew system. So, until further notice my transfers shall be as follows:
Monday: 100 G
Tuesday: 100 S
Wednesday: 30 G 50 S 20 I
Thursday: 100 G
Friday: 50 S 50 I
God Bless:^
tsptalk
10-22-2004, 02:02 PM
Interesting Rod. Is this a pattern you've noticed?
Tom
tsptalk wrote: Interesting Rod. Is this a pattern you've noticed?
Tom
It may be. I simply looked at the returns since May for each fund on each day of the week,then averaged which fund made out that day.
I'll stick with it for a couple weeks and see how it does. Then either adjust as needed, or simply scrap it.
puertorico
10-22-2004, 04:59 PM
Those thursdays ultimately use to be bad.
U game plan look good to me,let keep track.
I may jump before nov.1st let watch and see.
If I see a big down day, may jump in...:D
good luck
smine
10-22-2004, 05:39 PM
Rod, I too think you have an interesting idea. However, would you clarify the times? For example, Monday's 100G means you putthe change orderin on Friday or you changed it in time for Tuesday? It does seem to me that we do better on Tuesday, Wednesdays and Thursdays. Like today!
smine wrote: Rod, I too think you have an interesting idea. However, would you clarify the times? For example, Monday's 100G means you putthe change orderin on Friday or you changed it in time for Tuesday? It does seem to me that we do better on Tuesday, Wednesdays and Thursdays. Like today!
It means I will put the change in on Friday to be 100%Gfor Monday... and so forth.
BTW, when I was doing my averaging, Tuesday was a VERY STRONG day overallfor the S Fund.
Sigh... I became so busy today that I forgot to make my Wednesday transfer of:
30 G 50 S 20 I
That means I shall remain 100%S. After today's gains, hopefully it will turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
We shall see.:^
A blessing in disguise it was!:^
Once again, this is just a "system" I am tweaking. I don't use any fancy charts, or fancy math. I simply looked at the gains & losses in each fund since May, then averaged them out. I will continue to use this system the next few weeks and see how it pans outthen tweak it if necessary.
I may deviate through the election, though.;)
Rod-
What are you doing up at 3:40 am? You need to sleep, man!
Joel
jgpalmerdds wrote: Rod-
What are you doing up at 3:40 am? You need to sleep, man!
Joel
I'm 5 hours ahead of EST!:D
Soon to be 4...:dude:
I am quite satisfied I was 100%G for today, Thursday. Although there was little gain, it was still too close to the red for me.
According to my system, Thursdays are usuallydown or have very little gains. I would much rather error on the side of "very little gains" than end upin the red.
God Bless:^
Dakota
10-29-2004, 03:22 AM
Rod wrote: tsptalk wrote: Interesting Rod. Is this a pattern you've noticed?
Tom
It may be. I simply looked at the returns since May for each fund on each day of the week,then averaged which fund made out that day.
I'll stick with it for a couple weeks and see how it does. Then either adjust as needed, or simply scrap it.
rod, i did look at your theory, thats the way i read it to. I also looked at the 5 day charts for few different weeks and it showed the same. may give it a try in a week or two. worth a shot
At least I'll be 100%G Monday for the penny pick-up.:^
I may very well deviate from my system on election day and remain 100%G until further notice due to new threats of terrorism. But I won't be out for too long, depending on how the market reacts post-election.
God Bless :)
Dakota wrote: Rod wrote: tsptalk wrote: Interesting Rod. Is this a pattern you've noticed?
Tom
It may be. I simply looked at the returns since May for each fund on each day of the week,then averaged which fund made out that day.
I'll stick with it for a couple weeks and see how it does. Then either adjust as needed, or simply scrap it.
rod, i did look at your theory, thats the way i read it to. I also looked at the 5 day charts for few different weeks and it showed the same. may give it a try in a week or two. worth a shot
Give it a shot!:^
At least I can be your guinee pig in the meantime.;)
God Bless:dude:
100%G until further notice.
God Bless:^
Rod wrote: 100%G until further notice.
God Bless:^
Quite satisfied so far with this decision.:^
Deviating from system.
100%S effective Thursday- catching the wave of the rally... if it's not too late.
God Bless:^
I'll probably stay 100%S thru Friday, then high-tail it to G for Monday.
100%G effective Monday.
God Bless:^
Perfect timing for the penny pick-up.:cool:
100%S effective Tuesday.
God Bless:^
What fund will you be in on Wednesday when the Fed raises interest rates? I believe I will be100%S. Why? Well, when the Fed raises interest rates, it's a good indicator that the economy is improving.:dah:
Let's look at earnings in the S Fund on the day of the last 3 rate hikes:
Jun 30: earned 10 cents per share
Aug 10: earned earned 20 cents per share
Sep 21: earned 10 cents per share
There was no loss on the news of the rate hike.
Odds are, tomorrow will be a green day for the S Fund.:^
God Bless:)
Tuesdays are generally GREEN, but there are some RED Tuesdays. Overall, the GREEN outweighs the RED on Tuesdays.
So, that is why I am usually 100%S on Tuesdays.
Hopefully today will not be one of those RED days. But, it's gonna get me sooner or later.:s
God Bless :^
Although Nov 11 is historically aGREEN day, we now have the interest rate hike to add into the equation. For that reason, I will be 100%Gthru Mondaybecause the day or 2after an interest rate hike are usually RED days across the board in CSI.
At least, they have been these past 3 hikes. Check out the 2 days after Jun 30, Aug 10, and Sep 21 for yourself:
http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html
God Bless:^
Well, today was not as GREEN as I had hoped for. The Cisco earnings report put a slight damper on the Techs, keeping them weighed down. If it wasn't for that, I would have done a little better. It was the smart thing to do though- being 100%S- on the day of an interest rate hike since historically they are GREEN days across the board. But let this be lesson in that history doesn't always repeat itself. But, I'm still a satisfied customer since I have been on a roll the past week and a half.:)
Shugging it off the small lossand moving on.
Effective Thursday- 100%G thru Monday.
God Bless:^
I was "on the money" afterall! :u
The S Fund ended up with a 6 cent gain while I thought itwas down at market close. I must have had a brainfart. So, ignore my previous post.
History does repeat itself.;) So remember, the next time the Fed raises interest rates- BE 100%S the day of the hike!
God Bless!:^
Well for those of you who stayed invested, it looks like today will be a nice GREEN day afterall. Lower oil prices and the death of Arafat helped to fuel today's rally.
There were a few factors why I was not invested today:
1. The day(s) following a rate hike are historically RED days.
2. Thursdays are normally RED days.
3. And most importantly... since the TSP office was closed, I could not change my allocation for Friday if need be. For that reason, I went to "safe haven" in100%G thru Monday.
Enjoy your gains if you were invested!:dude:
God Bless:^
I hated that I missed out on Thursday's & Friday's gains. But, I explained above why I was out.
Now, I will not be sitting on the side-lines awaiting a "low buy-in", because quite frankly it may not happen for some time.
Therefore, since Nov, Dec, and Jan are the strongest trading months, I will be jumping in on Tuesday @ 100%S, possibly moving more aggressivelyinto the I Fund.
Now is the time to remain aggressive! No look'n back...:cool:
God Bless:^
vectorman
11-14-2004, 02:47 AM
Hi Rod, I put myself on the sidelines for the some reasons you mentioned. After making out on the last three hikes, I fell victim to habit and lock brain.I hate going to school of hard knocks concerning stocks. I guess 50/50 would have been the better choice, who would of thought of so much excitement in two days. I had alot of practice working the bear side. Now I just got to start thinking bull. I've been down before;now I have to work a little harder to keep that positive cash flow coming.Answer me this please- with all that jumping back and fore into the different funds you do. Do you pay attention to the number of shares you have or lose, or do you just look for that positive cash flow at the end of day?Thanks Better luck on Tuesday and beyond....
vectorman wrote: Do you pay attention to the number of shares you have or lose, or do you just look for that positive cash flow at the end of day?Thanks Better luck on Tuesday and beyond....
Yes, I do pay attention to the number of shares I lose. By jumping back in on Tuesday, I may be down about 8 shares... depending on how Monday performs.
God Bless:^
vectorman
11-15-2004, 01:21 AM
Iknow you have missed out on other opportunity gains. How do you deal with the frustration? I couldn't sleep at all friday night. I've only been moving my funds since May. I had to come from behind before, but I been wondering just how close to a correction we may be. We only got out at 1163 sp500, the talking heads are saying look for 1250 sometime next year. I really appreciate your up lifting attitude.I use to be buy and hold,but I thought I try to learn how to follow the trends just for this year. God Bless
vectorman wrote: Iknow you have missed out on other opportunity gains. How do you deal with the frustration? I couldn't sleep at all friday night. I've only been moving my funds since May. I had to come from behind before, but I been wondering just how close to a correction we may be. We only got out at 1163 sp500, the talking heads are saying look for 1250 sometime next year. I really appreciate your up lifting attitude.I use to be buy and hold,but I thought I try to learn how to follow the trends just for this year. God Bless
Yeah, I was a little frustrated at first... to be honest. But then I reminded myself why I was out. I had legitimate reasons to be out. Then I remind myself again that it could have turned the other way. Then I ask myself, would I hadrather been on the uptick, or on the downtick? Then I answer myself- I'd rather not have any gains than to lose them. Then I tell myself- what goes UP must come DOWN. There will be other opportunities.:D
Finally, as a Christian, I must constantly remind myself that the love of money is the root of all sorts of evil.
Therefore, I try not to lose any sleep... it's only money. I won't allow it to control me or my emotions. I control it.;)
God Bless:^
vectorman
11-15-2004, 02:13 PM
Thanks. Hope you see more green through the coming weeks. I noticed you'll be 100% S starting Tuesday. Are you always all or nothing?
vectorman wrote: Thanks. Hope you see more green through the coming weeks. I noticed you'll be 100% S starting Tuesday. Are you always all or nothing?
Thanx! Not always. But Tuesdays are historically GREEN days.
So, I'm normally 100%S.
Looks like the pullback is happening... a little sooner than I had anticipated.
Effective Wednesday:
30%G
50%C
20%I
God Bless:^
Rod,
How is this trend investing system of yours working so far for you? Just curious. It is quite fascinating. Love the Cross, dude!
Joel
jgpalmerdds wrote: Rod,
How is this trend investing system of yours working so far for you? Just curious. It is quite fascinating. Love the Cross, dude!
Joel
The election sort of threw a wrench into it. I'm now working the wrinkles out, while the market tries to level itself out.
Thanx for the comments!:^
Effective Thursday:
30%G
20%C
20%S
30%I
God Bless:^
vectorman
11-17-2004, 11:52 AM
Hi Rod, I see you are finally splitting your shares. Are you done jumping in and out of funds every other day? Do you plan on sitting in some for awhile? It seems that the ones who stay in and follow the trend line are doing better. What do you think? I made some poor choices that I 've had to wrestle through, but I have learned volumes. Now I just have to try and remember it. God Bless
vectorman wrote: Hi Rod, I see you are finally splitting your shares. Are you done jumping in and out of funds every other day? Do you plan on sitting in some for awhile? It seems that the ones who stay in and follow the trend line are doing better. What do you think? I made some poor choices that I 've had to wrestle through, but I have learned volumes. Now I just have to try and remember it. God Bless
Yeah, I may use this split for a little while. Then again I may not. I am normally 100%G for Thursdays, but with how things have been going lately tomorrow may bring in a little green... especially in the I Fund.
God Bless:^
Rod,
I'm with you Bud. I've been a buy/holder for about one month now, with almost 7.5% gains across the board. Nothing magical on my part, I've found throughout the years that Oct-Dec 31st has been a good time to be in equities. October has been up 7 of the last 8 years, even in Bear markets (except for 2001, I believe) Had I taken my own advice and stayed in the whole October, I would be up 12-13% just since Oct 1st. Nothing magical, just getting in and staying in for a while Oct-Dec 31st. Just my thoughts. Lord bless you.
Joel
vectorman
11-18-2004, 03:45 AM
Hi Joel,my names Dan, I live in TN. ,while you're staying in, do you still keep some shares in the G fund or are you all in the C,S/I. Thanks Sorry Rod wrong place
vectorman
11-18-2004, 03:57 AM
Rod, I know you missed last thur and fri. like myself.Did you play in last years bull market. Since we coming in at higer prices, I guess that leaves us a few shares short. How do you pick up extra shares in a bull mkt. What do I have to watch out for, do you know of any pit falls, beside emotional decision making? Hope you have a big blessing this week.
jgpalmerdds wrote: Rod,
I'm with you Bud. I've been a buy/holder for about one month now, with almost 7.5% gains across the board. Nothing magical on my part, I've found throughout the years that Oct-Dec 31st has been a good time to be in equities. October has been up 7 of the last 8 years, even in Bear markets (except for 2001, I believe) Had I taken my own advice and stayed in the whole October, I would be up 12-13% just since Oct 1st. Nothing magical, just getting in and staying in for a while Oct-Dec 31st. Just my thoughts. Lord bless you.
Joel
Yeah... I missed out on most of the election rally but did catch the wave for 1 day of it. Then I became bearish after the interest rate hike and missed that rally too.:?
It's not that I lost a lot of$$$, I simply missed some important gains because of historical trends that did not pan outin my favor orI did not want to buy in high. But then it went even higher. That's when I decided to buy in no matter what because I thought the market would go even higher- and it is. Then the day I bought in- 16 Nov, I had a loss. Go figure!:D
That's when I decided it's best to even out my allocations across the board a bit until the market "levels out". Since I've done that, I've practically made up my losses from the 16th.
16th losses:$58.91
17th gains: $51.12
So, some buy&holding may be a good strategy at this point in time. I'm still trying to decide. We'll se what today brings when I am normally 100%G.
God Bless:^
vectorman wrote: Rod, I know you missed last thur and fri. like myself.Did you play in last years bull market. Since we coming in at higer prices, I guess that leaves us a few shares short. How do you pick up extra shares in a bull mkt. What do I have to watch out for, do you know of any pit falls, beside emotional decision making? Hope you have a big blessing this week.
I'm fairly new at this too- as my disclaimer states. So, I wasn't trading last year.
Those are great questions though, which I'd love to know the answer to also. I won't sit here and pretend that I know the answers, or attempt to give you "good" advice. It would be best that you pose this question to Tom who is a seasoned investor.
God Bless:^
vectorman
11-18-2004, 01:33 PM
Thanks Rod, Tom said after a good night sleep he'll try to answer some of my questions. Stay focused on what really matters ( I had to learn the hard way, but thankfully got taken to the wood shed. and shone by way of the Light my bondage ). God bless
TheProphet
11-18-2004, 05:03 PM
I am 100% S :^
I'm feel'n bullish...;)
Effective Monday:
70 S
30 I
God Bless:^
Well, today was DEAD RED. But let's not become discouraged.
I'm glad I was only 30G 20C 20S 30I.
God Bless:^
At least my 70%S allocation for Monday should set me up nicely to buy in low.:)
Hopefully Monday will see GREEN!:^
VictorPR
11-20-2004, 01:59 PM
Amen..................
As most of you know, I am normally 100%G on Mondays but I decided to get invested since Thanksgiving week is historically a strong week.
I may very well take a hit on Monday because of what transpired Friday, though. But I had already made my transfer for Monday... so I'm stuck. There are a lot of us "stuck" for Monday. But if Monday does go down hill, I plan to remain invested and ride this one out because those Thanskgiving weekgains will eventually arrive.
So, don't become discouraged if Monday is RED!:)
God Bless:^
Dakota
11-23-2004, 08:36 AM
i'm with you 50c50s go greeen
I may very well stick it out the entire week- 70S 30I.
The I Fund shouldperform quite nicely today... making up for yesterday, and then some.
God Bless:^
I've had some nice gains so far with my 70%S 30%I allocation. Of course, I will be remaining with this allocation thru Friday.
I will most probably be 100%G effective Monday...stay tuned.
Happy Thanksgiving & God Bless:^
Looks like the I Fund is going GREEN.
For those of you in the I Fund with me, expect some good gains today.
Isn't it nice to stillbeplaying the marketwhile the US markets are closed?:cool:
It's agood dayto keep a few chips on the table.;)
Happy Thanksgiving & God Bless! :^
Tom is getting me hooked on trends. I went to the TSP site and looked at the CSIshare prices for the last Monday of themonth dating back to June 03.
Here is what I found:
Jun 03: Red Day
July 03: Green Day (Hey, I used to like that band) :dude:
Aug 03: Red Day
Sep 03: Red Day (I Fund)
Oct 03: Green Day
Nov 03: Green Day
Dec 03: Green Day
Jan 04: Red Day (I Fund)
Feb 04: Red Day (S,C Fund)
Mar 04: Green Day
Apr 04: Red Day (S,C Fund)
May 04: Green Day
Jun 04: Red Day (S,C Fund)
Jul 04: Red Day (Tuesday)
Aug 04: Red Day
Sep 04: Red Day
Oct 04: Red Day (S,I Fund)
As you can see, the Red days outweigh the Green. Although last Nov was Green, there has only been 2 Green days across the boardthus so far this year. It's really a tough call to make seeing the data above since not all the stock funds are affected on each Red day. It's just too much of a "mixed bag".
Therefore, effective Monday I will be:
100%G
Stay tuned for my comments on the first Monday of the month.
God Bless:^
Well, I played it safe today...too safe. As of 0700 EST, it looks like the I FUND will have some hefty gains.
Sometimes you are right with the seasonality trends, and sometimes you are wrong.
As for the I Fund, it looks as if I was wrong. We still have to see how the US markets shape up. Seasonally speaking, tomorrow is a REDday. Do I go with it? Or do I go against it? I think I'm going to go against it this time around. We'll just have to see how it pans out. As a reminder, I'm only an amateur trying to feel the market out for myself. So if you follow my moves, they are at your own risk.
Effective Tuesday:
60 S
40 I
God Bless:^
smine writes from another thread,
Rod, will you still stick with your 100S plan for Tuesday?
____________________________________________
As of lately, I haven't been sticking with my entire plan for Monday thru Friday. It was working pretty good up to the election. I nowneed to tweak it a bit, and will probably do so after the New Year.
Seasonally speaking though, tomorrow is a RED day. So, I do not want to expose myself too much losing my nice gains from last week. There may also be more gains in the I Fund for tomorrow. It's really hard to say.
Therefore, I'll be 60S 40I for tomorrow.
God Bless:^
Rod wrote: We still have to see how the US markets shape up.
Looks as if they are shaping :{. If this continues- a verygood move on my part.
But, I still should have stayed invested somein the I FUND.
Lesson learned- Do not completely pull out of the I Fund around this time of year unless you have a REALLY good reason to do so.:'
God Bless:^
Wow... it looks as if the I FUND has taken a drastic change for the worse:{.
It was looking so promising...
Oh well, at least I'm no longer kicking myself in the butt for being out of it!!!:D
I guess I need to cut myself some slack from now and NOT knock my moves early on in the day.;)
God Bless:^
Wow... it looks as if the I FUND has taken a drastic change for the worse:{.
It was looking so promising...
Oh well, at least I'm no longer kicking myself in the butt for being out of it!!!:D
I guess I need to cut myself some slack from now and NOT knock my moves early on in the day.;)
God Bless:^
Timer
11-29-2004, 04:58 PM
Rod wrote: Lesson learned- Do not completely pull out of the I Fund around this time of year unless you have a REALLY good reason to do so.:'
God Bless:^
Rod, I really agree with this statement. In the last 5-6 weeks I've been at least 25% I except once when I jumped out and lost. A pullback has to come but the 'I wheelbarrow' just seems to be full of cash lately.
Timer
11-29-2004, 05:02 PM
Rod wrote: Rod wrote: We still have to see how the US markets shape up.
Looks as if they are shaping :{. If this continues- a verygood move on my part.
But, I still should have stayed invested somein the I FUND.
Lesson learned- Do not completely pull out of the I Fund around this time of year unless you have a REALLY good reason to do so.:'
God Bless:^
Timer wrote: Rod, I really agree with this statement. In the last 5-6 weeks I've been at least 25% I except once when I jumped out and lost. A pullback has to come but the 'I wheelbarrow' just seems to be full of cash lately.
Yes it has been full, especially earlier today.
What happened???
Timer
11-29-2004, 06:09 PM
I don't know what happened there but my second post should be deleted.
Effective Wednesday:
70 S
30 I
God Bless:^
Within the next day or so, I will have my percentage of gains posted for the month of November.
I will simply divide my total gains by my account balance. Let's say my account balance is $100, and I earned $10 in gains.
10/100=.10
That would equate to a 10% gain. This is much simpler than dividing out my gains across each fund. Remember, I'm a simple man.;) Why make it difficult???
God Bless:^
tsptalk
11-30-2004, 01:59 PM
Rod -
I appreciate the effort but that won't be very accurate since you make contributions and your contributions also make and lose money.
Have you gotten to understand thenew spreadsheet? Maybe you guys/gals can just start tracking in January with the newcalculator? That would be fine. I'll try to push for that in January.
Thanks again for your efforts. :^
Tom
tsptalk wrote: Rod -
I appreciate the effort but that won't be very accurate since you make contributions and your contributions also make and lose money.
Have you gotten to understand thenew spreadsheet? Maybe you guys/gals can just start tracking in January with the newcalculator? That would be fine. I'll try to push for that in January.
Thanks again for your efforts. :^
Tom
Understood Tom.:^
Yes, I plan on using the speadsheet. But I probably won't be able to start until Feb since I will be in the middle of moving and on vacation come late December thru January. My activity on here will be very sporadic during that period.
Thanx!
Rod wrote: Seasonally speaking though, tomorrow is a RED day. So, I do not want to expose myself too much losing my nice gains from last week. There may also be more gains in the I Fund for tomorrow. It's really hard to say.
Therefore, I'll be 60S 40I for tomorrow.
God Bless:^
Well, I took my chances but seasonality ruled. A lot of us lost some gains today. But don't fret, we'll get'em back.
God Bless:^
tsptalk
12-01-2004, 01:33 PM
Yes, I plan on using the speadsheet. But I probably won't be able to start until Feb since I will be in the middle of moving and on vacation come late December thru January. My activity on here will be very sporadic during that period.
That's fine. Assuming you keep us posted on your allocation changes, and also assuming that since you are busy you will be relatively inactive with transfers, I can track your returns with the spreadsheet to get it started in January, then you can take it over when you are less busy.
Let me know.
Tom
tsptalk wrote: Yes, I plan on using the speadsheet. But I probably won't be able to start until Feb since I will be in the middle of moving and on vacation come late December thru January. My activity on here will be very sporadic during that period.
That's fine. Assuming you keep us posted on your allocation changes, and also assuming that since you are busy you will be relatively inactive with transfers, I can track your returns with the spreadsheet to get it started in January, then you can take it over when you are less busy.
Let me know.
Tom
Thank you, Tom. Yes, I will keep you posted ofany allocationchanges. I'll maintain a semi-conservative allocation while I'm away because I don't want to miss out on thoseJan gains.;)
I'm already using the worksheet for DEC.:^
It was an excellent day yesterday, Folks!:^
I will continue to ride the wave...:dude:
God Bless:)
Effective Monday:
50 G
25 C
25 I
God Bless:^
Rod wrote: Effective Monday:
50 G
25 C
25 I
God Bless:^
No F? :P
Rod,
Stay in the market until the third week of January. Now is the time to be fully invested.
Have a great day!
Dr Bill
Rod wrote:
Effective Monday:
50 G
25 C
25 I
God Bless:^
mlk_man wrote: Rod wrote: Effective Monday:
50 G
25 C
25 I
God Bless:^
No F? :P
I simply don't mess much with the F. :D
MarketTimer wrote: Rod,
Stay in the market until the third week of January. Now is the time to be fully invested.
Have a great day!
Dr Bill
Thanx Bill, but seasonally speaking the market may bepulling back some the next week or so. I then intend to be fully invested around the 3rd week of Dec until my Wife & I move/vacation the second week of Jan at which time I will go conservative since I won't be able to keep a keen eye on the market.
God Bless:^
Taking a little more off the table in preparation for the forthcoming "choppy" week or so.
Effective Wednesday:
75 G
25 I
God Bless:^
BTW, I just may jump back in for the possible rate hike.;)
Yesterday is a prime example of why I took some off the table a few days ago, then more off the table yesterday.
Seasonality seems to be playing itself out...expect more choppiness.
God Bless:^
I'm riding out the I @ 25% because it should rebound NLT next week. Don't want to sell low now... I may actually buy in depending on how it performs tomorrow.
God Bless:^
The I Fund is going for a 4th RED day in a row. It's about that time for a RISE.
I'm contemplating moving 25% more into I, for a total of 50%.
Standby
NOT TODAY.
Japan down 164 today.
I fund will have a fifth day of losses.
MT
MarketTimer wrote: NOT TODAY.
Japan down 164 today.
I fund will have a fifth day of losses.
MT
Thanx, I'll take that into consideration.
On the other hand the OPEC meeting is tomorrow and the fed is next week with the trade report...AGGGGHHH.
I would love to 100% G fund now.
I believe the hedge funds are going to sell the market today and look to get back in late December.
I hope I am wrong.
Good luck!
Bill
I'm taking the plunge! Effective Friday:
50 G
50 I
God Bless:^
My additional move into (I) may have been a bit premature. I won't let it get to me, though. I'll get it back soon enough. Effective Monday:
30C
20S
50I
God Bless:^
Although I took a hit on Friday in the (I), I was hesitant to sell low hoping I would at least get the majority of those losses back this week. By the looks of the foreign markets this morning, I just may get my wish. If it still looks strong around noon, I may pull back somefrom the (I).
Happy Christmas!:^
Sorry, change of heart. Effective Tuesday:
20 C
30 S
50 I
The reason why I stayed 50 (I) is because I bought in 25% moreon Friday then took Friday's loss. I'd like to try and fully recup those losses, instead of bailing out now.
FYI, the last 4 interest rate hike days have been GREEN. Will tomorrow make it the fifth???
We shall see.
Happy Christmas!:dude:
Vectorman posted:
Correction Rob: the last interest rate hike was nice and green immediately following the next two days after the action, the bull market was really picking up steam. The first three hikes the market fell for a few days starting the day after the action, but soon recovered and then turned green. I know, because I played the market short for the first three hikes and it worked out pretty good. This last time I got burned, if you remember ( I know you gotstuck in the G fund too, during that two day ralley.:X) , I underestimated the strength of the growing bull market. Everyone isexpecting this next rate hike. The only question is what will Greenspan say to put a monkey wrench in the works? Check out the chart for the SP500, the money is there and it really wants to go higher, but keeps falling back. You can really see the potential, look at the one month chart. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500
______________________________________
ME:
Actually V, the S fund picked up some pennieson the day of the last interest rate hike.
I, too, thought it was down at the time... but it gained.
Go back through my account talk and read the comments I made about that day.
God Bless:^
vectorman
12-13-2004, 03:00 PM
Sorry Brother :^ My bad, still learning about the site. I said the day starting the day after each rate increase.
vectorman wrote: Sorry Brother :^ My bad, still learning about the site. I said the day starting the day after each rate increase.
No problem!:) I thought you were correcting me on the "day of" the hike.
God Bless:^
vectorman
12-13-2004, 03:09 PM
Rod wrote: I hated that I missed out on Thursday's & Friday's gains. But, I explained above why I was out.
Now, I will not be sitting on the side-lines awaiting a "low buy-in", because quite frankly it may not happen for some time.
Therefore, since Nov, Dec, and Jan are the strongest trading months, I will be jumping in on Tuesday @ 100%S, possibly moving more aggressivelyinto the I Fund.
Now is the time to remain aggressive! No look'n back...:cool:
God Bless:^
Remember :X, Full steam ahead, no looking back.May God Bless you greatly.
vectorman
12-13-2004, 03:14 PM
Checkout the bounce on the I fund. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA Look at the one month time frame chart.
The I fund has been bullish for quite awhile. The pullback ate up about 1/4 of the gains... on lower volume.
Not bad.
vectorman wrote: Checkout the bounce on the I fund. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA Look at the one month time frame chart.
Looks like the NYC skyline!:^
vectorman wrote: Remember :X, Full steam ahead, no looking back.May God Bless you greatly.
Thanx for that reminder!!!:^
smine
12-13-2004, 03:50 PM
Have kicked myself all weekend for getting out.
smine wrote: Have kicked myself all weekend for getting out.
Yeah, I've had those PLENTY of times! It's just nice to be on this side of it for a change because I know I'll be on the other side plenty more times!!!:shock::D
Rod wrote: My additional move into (I) may have been a bit premature. I won't let it get to me, though. I'll get it back soon enough. Effective Monday:
30C
20S
50I
God Bless:^
Looks like today IS that day I will be recuping those losses, and then some.:^
Hopefully they won't be taken from me AGAIN come tomorrow!:P
Happy Christmas!:)
vectorman
12-13-2004, 05:57 PM
Been there, done that too.;) European markets closed a while ago and the market is still going strong in after hours trading. Hopefully this will carry over to tomorrow and then some.:^
vectorman wrote: Been there, done that too.;) European markets closed a while ago and the market is still going strong in after hours trading. Hopefully this will carry over to tomorrow and then some.:^
That would be nice since I'll still be 50 (I).:)
I'm just trying to figure out how long I want to hold it.
vectorman
12-13-2004, 06:29 PM
Well the money is there for the SP500 has I said before. Look at the chart, noticefor Nov. 3, todays push whats to get back up to that days high. The money is there, but is the will? Use one month time frame to get a good look.Hopefully the S fund will finally break out again. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500
vectorman
12-13-2004, 06:33 PM
Rod wrote: Hey MT, when do you plan to get invested again?
?????????:cool:
vectorman wrote: Rod wrote: Hey MT, when do you plan to get invested again?
?????????:cool:
LOL, rub it in vector.......................:shock:
It's been a GREAT day, recuping my losses from Friday and then some!
Now, excuse me while I goand count my pennies.:!
However, I won't be rollingall of themin case I surrender some tomorrow!:D
God Bless:^
vectorman
12-14-2004, 01:44 AM
Like you Rod, I was just enjoying the blessing of the day. I didn't mean to sound too prideful. I know just how quickly things can change. I was just feeling pretty good that I didn't panic with the drop of the I fund. I stuck with my plan, reviewed the charts andtriedtostay focused.I noticed my thinking about the market is much more steady, than several months ago.This site has been very helpful.:^
I think I may have played a role in Rod deciding to hold his position in the I fund. :D
Buying in is the easy part. Selling is the hard part. I'm sitting on a tiny loss for 10% of my I, and a healthy gain for 25%. I'm rolling the dice right now and hoping the price will shoot back up past the $15 level, perhaps hitting another all-time high. Based on the EAFE chart, there's no reason why that can't happen, especially after that healthy pullback last week.
I'm planning a quasi-exit point around the $15 per share level... meaning I won't dump all of my holdings over there, but I'll probably slash them in half or so - and go down to a 20% I position. Whatever I get out of that move, I'll be looking to push into the C fund, since it is still the cheapest stock fund by far and has lots of upside with a coming interest rate hike.
I'm watching the C and S performance very closely - C beat the S today. If I see that happen a couple more times, I'm going to reallocate and take advantage... I doubt I'll ditch S completely, though... but I will look to lighten it a bit and at least have my non-I allocation evenly split between S and C. If C continues strongly, that may shift to all C.
vectorman wrote: Like you Rod, I was just enjoying the blessing of the day. I didn't mean to sound too prideful. I know just how quickly things can change. I was just feeling pretty good that I didn't panic with the drop of the I fund. I stuck with my plan, reviewed the charts andtriedtostay focused.I noticed my thinking about the market is much more steady, than several months ago.This site has been very helpful.:^
Youhit the nail on the head! I'm with you, Inever intendto sound prideful. I'm just happy I stuck with my guns too.
Thanx to mlk_man andMike who encouraged me to "run" with the (I) since I was already in it, I may enjoy another great day today since the Asian markets are up sharply!:^
We shall see!
God Bless:)
Mike wrote: I think I may have played a role in Rod deciding to hold his position in the I fund. :D
YES! Both you & mlk_man!:^
BTW, I'm thinking of lightening up on the (I) today as well. I had already planned on dropping to 20%. Then I may go:
45C
35S
Happy Christmas!:D
Rod wrote:
Thanx to mlk_man andMike who encouraged me to "run" with the (I) since I was already in it, I may enjoy another great day today since the Asian markets are up sharply!:^
We shall see!
God Bless:)
Your welcome. I'm starting to think I should play it more often. I"m going to see about "incorporating" it into the allocation part of my stystem. We shall see.........
Good luck today,
M_M
Vector
Today!!! 30 C and 50 S will put the other 20 and I tomorrow.
Have you seen my lab rat, Suppository? He has a badly damaged CPU and likes to step in front of trains like; trade balance, IP, CU and FOMC reports.
We can rebuild him but we can not get the crosswired brain fixed.
Have a great day! Yesterdaywas called a Mark Up Day.
Morpheus
vectorman wrote:
Rod wrote: Hey MT, when do you plan to get invested again?
?????????:cool:
MarketTimer wrote: Vector
Today!!! 30 C and 50 S will put the other 20 and I tomorrow.
Have you seen my lab rat, Suppository? He has a badly damaged CPU and likes to step in front of trains like; trade balance, IP, CU and FOMC reports.
We can rebuild him but we can not get the crosswired brain fixed.
Have a great day! Yesterdaywas called a Mark Up Day.
Morpheus
Sorry Rod, I feel the need to respond.
MT, you have been dis-credited. Either give it a break or accept the challenge. Very simple. I think someone may have switched brains between you and the rat.......no wait, I'm not gonna slight the rat like that............http://www.websmileys.com/sm/violent/sterb119.gif
I'm lightening up on (I). Effective Wednesday:
35C
55S
10I
God Bless & Happy Christmas!:^
Dakota
12-14-2004, 03:30 PM
Rod wrote: I'm lightening up on (I). Effective Wednesday:
35C
55S
10I
God Bless & Happy Christmas!:^
good show exactly my thoughts Its just too scary I'm completely out of I sticking to 25c 75s Bless ya Rod,,,,,, CHUCK
By waiting that extra day, you gained another 3 cents per share. :^
Mike wrote: By waiting that extra day, you gained another 3 cents per share. :^
Yeah! It was a good run. Definitely made up for my Friday losses, and then some!:^
It always works out at some point in time.;)
God Bless:dude:
mlk_man wrote: Sorry Rod, I feel the need to respond.
No problem!
Just an update. I'm still holding at:
35C
55S
10I
God Bless & Happy Christmas!:)
For those interested, I would like to share with you the format I use to trackmy allocations / dollar returns along with the performance of theindexes in hopes that it may help some of you with your tracking. It's been great for me. It's given me a bird's eye view of how the indexes have been performing along with my gains/losses for the month of December. I also have a tab for stocks. My Wife & I own WMT (Wal-Mart) & HD (Home Depot) stock. I am currently keeping an eye on the trends of SIRI of XMSR. I may buy into those at some point in time.
You will notice on the left side, the trading days of December. I have highlighted each day according to Tom's seasonality chart.
RED- Bad Day
GREEN- Good Day
Black- Neutral
You will also notice that I just began tracking the Asian markets. I want to see the trends in how they influence the international markets in general. I believe this will help me to better understand the I Fund.
Let me know if you have any questions/comments about the format I use. Once again, it's very simplified. But it works for me, and it may very well work for you too.
BTW, I also manage my Wife's TSP. This worksheet includes both our accounts since our allocations are a mirror reflection of one another.
God Bless & Happy Christmas!:)
Since I'm moving more into the (I), this means everyone else needs to GET OUT!!!:D
Effective Tuesday:
60 S
40 I
God Bless & Happy New Year!:^
Effective Wednesday:
30 S
70 I
God Bless!:^
cajunfla
12-28-2004, 02:09 PM
So you are expecting the I fund to go higher than what it is now? How much higher? What makes you think it will? I am trying to learn what indicators you guys follow.
I had a bunch in the I, then got out. Silly me got back in on a day when it closed higher than when I got out. Dumb move on my part.
cajunfla wrote: So you are expecting the I fund to go higher than what it is now? How much higher? What makes you think it will? I am trying to learn what indicators you guys follow.
I'm no guru, mind you.:D I'm simply watching the dollar. Once it begins to rebound, I'll pull out.
FYI...
I am now in PCS / vacation /new home buying mode. That said, I will not be able to watch the marketsas close as I'd like to over the next month or so. But I will still post my moves when I make them and participate when I have spurts of downtime.
I doplan onswitching to a more "conservative" allocation by 7 Jan- when my Wife & I are due to fly back to the states.
God Bless & Happy New Year!:^
My return for the month of December is:
3.68%
Remember, this is only for the month of December. I will begin my "yearly" returns in 2005.
Here is the worksheet:
God Bless & Happy New Year!:^
FundSurfer
01-02-2005, 02:03 AM
The difference between your calculation for December and my calculation on TALLY for December is the starting date. You started on 11/30, I started on 12/1. I was surprised at the wide difference when I saw your post and thought I had a blow in my calculations. Turns out that 11/30 was a very good day.
Yeah, that was a good day!:^
The first week of Jan should be a good one.
I'm contemplating my allocation for Tuesday.....
It's turning into a rough start for the new year. Hopefully this isn't an indicator of how 2005 will perform.
I don't want to get into the habit of jumping the gun too early and bailduring theselosses. If anything, I may lighten up on (I), and move some into (S) and simply view it as a low "buy in". Buying in low usually isn't on my priority list. But I don't want to completely bail to (G) just yet. We're BOUND to see a rebound. When???
I don't know. But I do know this much, I want to be invested when it does happen.
Still 30(S) and 70(I).
Like I said, I may move some into (S) tomorrow... especially since I begin my PCS/vacation on Saturday.
God Bless:^
The minutes from the last FOMC meeting did it. Apparently, there was a mention of having to accelerate the interest rate hikes to keep inflation in check and strengthen the dollar. This is why both the market *and* the currency acted the way they did.
Economic news is still good - manufacturing numbers were strong as were the sales for the week after Christmas. However, when there's a rumor of bigger interest rate hikes coming down the pike, that's what will dominate.
Hopefully, some investors will recognize the continued strong economic numbers and take advantage of what is now a buying opportunity.
Effective Thursday:
100 S
The dollar is on the rise, so I'm bailing on (I) and buying in low on (S)to catch the rebound!
God Bless:^
Mike wrote: Hopefully, some investors will recognize the continued strong economic numbers and take advantage of what is now a buying opportunity.
That's definitely what I'm doing.
lookywhatigot@yahoo.com
01-05-2005, 12:53 PM
Market is still acting crazy. One minute futures are up, next minute they are down. Good luck.
Watch the 10 year treasury. Do not watch the futures. If you see the 10 year yield continue to jump...then expect 10-20% little down turn to start your New Year off right.
A couple hedge funds have a 500M short on the Spiders right now.
There will be no buying, just selling until the job reports comes out. No one wants to be in front of that train that is a professional trader.
MT
Right now, the (I) may not be the greatest place to be. Here are some prices since 3 Jan. As you can see, the dollar is gaining ground:
Jan 3:
EURO: 1.3553
POUND: 1.919
YEN: 0.009731
Jan 4:
EURO 1.337
POUND: 1.894
YEN: 0.009650
As of now:
EURO: 1.3251
POUND: 1.8840
YEN: 0.009600
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to detect the downward trend. Until I see some upward movement, I'll be steering clear of (I).
God Bless:^
The dollar is rallying on the rumor that the fed will engage in a more aggressive strategy with the interest rates. As long as this happens, the I fund is going to take a serious beating.
Mike wrote: The dollar is rallying on the rumor that the fed will engage in a more aggressive strategy with the interest rates. As long as this happens, the I fund is going to take a serious beating.
Yep,I'm gladI bailed. I'm buying 70% more into (S) @ 14.06.
It hasn't seen levels that low since Nov 23 @ 14.00.
Hopefully this will help to recupsome losses from (I).
God Bless:^
Watch what happens when 110b is requested in the next two weeks for Iraq funding. Gold will shoot up and the U.S. dollar will reverse trend.
Funny the U.S. dollar gets stronger and the U.S. stock market is in thetoilet. If the U.S. stock market start going back up when the U.S. dollar start going down again...I believe that will be a signal that corporations and traders will want the dollar to continue the downward slide.
Just ones lemmings thoughts.
Rod wrote: Effective Thursday:
100 S
The dollar is on the rise, so I'm bailing on (I) and buying in low on (S)to catch the rebound!
God Bless:^
Looks as if this is going to pan out just fine.:cool:
I'm buying I on the rising dollar. :P
I'm almost perfectly hedged now. :shock:
A nice little gain for being 100(S).
Let's hope for a positive jobs report! Even if it's negative, it shouldn't have too much of a impact. But if it comes in at above expectations- LOOK OUT FOR SOME GREEN!!!
God Bless!:^
I'm flying back to the states tomorrow and will be "on the road" through Monday. I could very well make a telephone transfer on Monday for Tuesday, depending on how the market fairs. If I do, I will not be able to post it on here.
Nevertheless, this will be my allocation effective Monday:
30C
40 S
30 I
God Bless:^
I'm back on-line with a new laptop which I purchased today, and settled into a hotel room with my Wife in southern MS. I'm pretty well over my jet-lag. It wasn't just too bad. Now that I'm back on-line, it will be nice to once again hang with y'all and ride out this roller coaster we've been on these past couple of weeks. I'm still:
30C
40S
30I
I may make a change once I have a better grasp on what has been transpiring in the markets.
It's nice to be back in the states!:cool:
God Bless:^
Rod wrote: I'm back on-line with a new laptop which I purchased today.
Hey Rod!
I'm sort of thinking to purchase a laptop. What did you purchase? Tell me about it?
Rgds :? Spaf
I purchased a Compaq PresarioV2000 Model V2140US. I got it at Best Buy for about $1,300.
You can see the V2000 on Compaq's website.
I've been eyeing this particular laptop for a few months now, but wanted to wait until I returned to the states to buy it.
It's very lightweight- 5.2 pounds. (a few ounces more with the battery- 4 to 5 hour life). I'm going wireless now- my hotel has free access.
Overall, it's a really nice and affordable laptop. I've been on it a couple hours now and it's barely warm.
You should be able to see the different specs on Compaq'a site.
grandma
01-13-2005, 06:54 AM
Rod wrote:
It's nice to be back in the states!:cool:
God Bless:^
Welcomb back, Rod - to the Message Board, but more epsecially to the USA terra firma :!
grandma wrote: Rod wrote:
It's nice to be back in the states!:cool:
God Bless:^
Welcomb back, Rod - to the Message Board, but more epsecially to the USA terra firma :!
Thanx Grams!:)
I'm stick'n to my guns. We'll have a bounce soon enough.
God Bless:^
We got our little bounce today, as I suspected we would. The January seasonality data has been OFF THE TABLE big time! So, I'm no longer paying attention to it. I hope you're doing the same.
Hopefully after the holiday weekend we'll get another bounce on Tuesday. Historically speaking, Tuesdays are good for the (S). I sure wish history would start to repeat itself again.
I have a feeling that (I) will do alright on Monday. That's why I'm remaining 30(I). GOTTA still have chips on the table somewhere, even though the US markets will be closed.;)
30C
40S
30I
Enjoy today's gains & God Bless!:^
Hey Tom, you confused me there for a moment... with moving this thread toward the top of the forum!:D
I thought it had disappeared.:shock:
grandma
01-16-2005, 01:38 AM
Rod wrote: I thought it had disappeared.:shock:
me too, but I wasn't going to admit it first ! :oo
It will problalby be easier for new people to find the site, tho, if they don't explore all the forums.
I'm remaining NUMB to the "pain" of the market. That said, I will maintain:
30 C
40 S
30 I
God Bless:^
Look for FEB to rock-n-roll since Jan SUCKED.;)
tsptalk
01-21-2005, 05:08 AM
Rod wrote: Hey Tom, you confused me there for a moment... with moving this thread toward the top of the forum!:D
I thought it had disappeared.:shock:
Just seeing who was paying attention. :)
I'm still in a "holding pattern" guys, trying to recup some of JAN losses. It seems that the (I) Fund may be on the rebound with the dollar being down against the major currencies. But that could very well be short term. I may move a little out of (S) and into (I) for Friday. I will make that decision tomorrow.
30C
40S
30I
God Bless:^
Still hold'n:
30C
40S
30I
God Bless:^
I have finally recupped my Jan losses. I may be moving more into (I) depending on how Monday starts out.
30C
40S
30I
God Bless:^
Rod wrote: Look for FEB to rock-n-roll since Jan SUCKED.;)
I do think we are rock-n-roll'n...:cool: I've already broke even and recupped Jan's losses. It was pretty painful being fully invested, but I most certainly had no intention of selling on those losses. Now that I've gained them back, the sky is the limit! (Staying positive, because I have a feeling that this up coming week is going to be GREEN.) Bear in mind, Iraq will be announcing their election results on Sunday. This could very wellhelp to propel the markets on Monday, setting a positive tone for the week. Then again, we could have some angry insurgents with the outcome. Even if we do, I believe it won't have much of an impact.
We'll just have to see how it goes.
God Bless:^
Finally making an IFT after holding since 10 Jan. Taking advantage of the dollar's weakness, which may very well be short-term.
Effective Tuesday:
30 C
20 S
50 I
God Bless:^
Just so you know, I'm still holding at:
30 C
20 S
50 I
I've been extremely busy with my PCS / House Hunting, so I'll probably be holding this for the short term unless I have a real good reason tobail to (G).
God Bless:^
We may have to run for cover soon, with our "Gas masks" in hand.
You may have already heard- gas prices are poised to rise 20-30 cents a gallon over the next week.
Keep a close eye on those oil prices... because we could quickly lose today's gains.
We justmay need to lock'em & load'em (gains)NLT Monday, folks.
God Bless:^
tsptalk
03-05-2005, 06:07 AM
Nice going Rod. You sure played this better than I did. :^
tsptalk wrote: Nice going Rod. You sure played this better than I did. :^
Thanx Tom. This is my strategy, maintaining some sort of "hold" allocation while the choppiness continues, because we just never know when we will get that relief rally.
At the same time, I just gotta hope that the up days will outnumber the down. That is the chance I am taking by remaining invested.
I haven't sought shelter in (G) since December, and I am now :}2.07% for the year.
But I have this "inkling" that I may need to move there effective Tuesday. I haven't felt that in quite awhile, so I may need to take that seriously. I'll just have to see how Monday shapes up.
God Bless:^
IBD Fan
03-05-2005, 08:00 PM
Rod wrote:
But I have this "inkling" that I may need to move there effective Tuesday. I haven't felt that in quite awhile, so I may need to take that seriously. I'll just have to see how Monday shapes up.
Rod, good job in sticking with the rally. What makes you have the"inkling" - would you care to share?
IBD Fan wrote: Rod, good job in sticking with the rally. What makes you have the"inkling" - would you care to share?
I began tosense it once I heard that gas prices will be rising 20-30 cents a gallon. Where I live,they haverisen around 14 cents a gallon in just 2 days. I foresee that to go even higher this upcoming week. BUT, is that already factored into the market? I don't know.
If I do pull out, I may still leave some in (I).
God Bless:^
IBD Fan
03-07-2005, 07:10 AM
Thanks for providing the insight:cool:. It seems your philosphy and mine are close to each other. Thats why I asked you. If you dont mind I will be tracking your moves and asking as you go along.
God Bless:^
IBD Fan wrote: If you dont mind I will be tracking your moves and asking as you go along.
God Bless:^
I don't mind at all. But keep inmind, I'm an amateur. So, I will not be providing you with technical answers.
I'm still contemplating my move, although crude dropped 58 cents a barrel & techs are rallying.
The dollar gained a bit against the Euro & Pound... but not too much. I'll probably stick with (I) until the dollar gains 3 days in a row OR gains 2 cents within 2 days. From my tracking, that seems to bewhen the downward trend for (I)begins.
For the Euro, on Mar 1, the dollar was trading at 1.3172.
It is now trading at 1.3195, down from yesterday's 1.324. So as you can see, not too much of a difference. To me, that's no cause for alarm. Then again, that's just me. But if it is at 1.29 by tomorrow's close, then I may pull out of (I) OR buyinto the weakness.
This week may not be too bad, since there aren't any major economical reports duethat investors are waiting for. Combine that with oil dropping 58 cents a gallon, I'm not as nervous anymore.
Some interesting data:
2004 closing prices:
C= 12.91 NOW=13.06
S= 14.73 NOW= 14.75
I= 15.48 NOW= 16.02
As you can see, the (S) still has room to grow. Is this where we need to be??? Well, as of this writing, the NAZ is up 26.56. So, today (so far) would have been a great day to be in (S).
Once again, I don't use any fancy, shmancy charts to decide upon my moves. I simply try to track the dollar the best I know how, and combine that with a little bit of "gut feeling" & common cents.;)
Effective Tuesday:
30G
10 C
20S
40I
God Bless:^
Gritz
03-07-2005, 04:28 PM
Rod, thanks for laying out your thoughts :^. When you say you track the dollar, is that for the I fund or all the funds?
IBD Fan
03-07-2005, 04:30 PM
I just bailed out of 100% I to 100% G today before 12 EST. idnt like what I saw witht he Asian market up, Euro mixed but the dollar up and the EAFE up. Thought the I fund tracked the EAFE very closely so am expecting the I fund to be down today if the numbers stay about the same the rest of the day. Interesting that you say the I may not follow the EAFE.
Gritz wrote: Rod, thanks for laying out your thoughts :^. When you say you track the dollar, is that for the I fund or all the funds?
I basically track the opening & closing of theEuro, Pound, and the Yen against the dollaras it pertains to the (I). If I see that the dollar is falling, then I know to get out of (I).
IBD Fan wrote: Thought the I fund tracked the EAFE very closely so am expecting the I fund to be down today if the numbers stay about the same the rest of the day. Interesting that you say the I may not follow the EAFE.
The EAFE does not track the (I) as close as we'd like it to. There are some topics in this forum in which we discuss this very thing.
Search "EAFE" and you might come across some.
God Bless:^
I'm now completely ditching US equities. Effective Friday:
30G
70I
God Bless:^
FYI...
Still holding at:
30 G
70 I
God Bless:^
I've been way-over-my-head too busy this past week (the military is to blame:P)to keep a close eye on the markets, and it is costing me in the (I). I'm nowexperiencing that "trapped" feeling that WE ALL experience sooner or later.
That said, I'm simply going to remain in hopes of recovering some of those losses because Ido not likeselling on losses, no matter how painful it might get.
Hopefully we'll have a rebound soon. If not, I'll then begin to move little by little off the table.
God Bless:^
I'm taking a little off the table in (I), because when I do this it always seems to rebound. Hmmm... go figure.:P We'll see if the "curse" continues so I can use it to my advantage in order to kick-start the (I).:D
Effective Friday:
40 C
60 I
God Bless:^
Effective Monday:
20 G
40 C
40 I
God Bless:^
I can't wait for the markets to open to make a decision because I have an apointment.
Effective Tuesday:
20 G
10F
40 C
20S
10 I
God Bless:^
RIP PJPII
Effective Friday:
10 G
50 C
30 S
10 I
God Bless:^
RIP PJPII
As if it's no surprise, the dollar is down over the euro, pound, and yen. So, I am going to take 10% out of G, C, and S and move it into (I).
Effective Monday:
40 C
20 S
40 I
God Bless:^
Just when we think we couldn't go THAT much lower...:s
Something has to give.
But like ST said in his talkthread, trying to find the bottom in this sort of market climate is like playing with fire.
I feel like I felt back in March when I was invested in (I)- stuck in the muck-n-mire.
I noticed that theeuro, pound, and yen were gaining strength against dollar, so hopefully this will be good for the (I) come Monday. Who knows. No one knows.
Well, to sum up, I'm not going anywhere. Because when I do, the market takes off- even if it's a mini-rally. In the meantime we must keep this in mind- when the market does have a couple good days, we need to take those gains and move to (G) in preparation for another sell-off. The mistake I've made in the past was trying to recup ALL of my previous losses by staying fully invested when the market seems to be on the up-swing. This can be very deceiving. That's why it's best to bank those short-term gains so you do not lose those too and then some when the market eventually takes another hit. Also, dollar cost averaging seems very dangerous so far this year since it's been a losing year.
God Bless:^
Some stats for you toplace under yourbelt:
2004 Closing:
DJIA: 10,783.01
NAZ: 2,175.44
S&P: 1,211.92
15 Apr:
DJIA: 10,087.51
NAZ: 1,908.15
S&P: 1,142.62
You can see how we've deteriorated since the New Year.
God Bless:^
The (I) Fund sure is acting funny... the euro, pound, and yen continue to gain strength, but it sure is not helping the Fund.:P
coolhand
04-18-2005, 11:10 PM
Rod wrote: The (I) Fund sure is acting funny... the euro, pound, and yen continue to gain strength, but it sure is not helping the Fund.:P
I suspectit's factoring in Friday's sell-off, but like so many others on this board I can't be sure. It is a strange fund that never actually stops trading.
coolhand wrote: Rod wrote: The (I) Fund sure is acting funny... the euro, pound, and yen continue to gain strength, but it sure is not helping the Fund.:P
I suspectit's factoring in Friday's sell-off, but like so many others on this board I can't be sure. It is a strange fund that never actually stops trading.
Well, as of nowthe Nikkeiis UP .71% for the 19th.
I sure hope that holds out. I could use the break.
God Bless:^
Hey Smine, you might find this interesting- the last time the euro, pound, and yen had 3 days of consecutive gains against the dollar was the last week of February. We gained .27 per share the next couple of days.
Anyways, today was the 3rd day in consecutive gains.
Will there be a fourth, tommorrow??? ;)
God Bless:^
Looks like we are right on track to make that.27 per share by COB tomorrow including today's gains.:^
Rod wrote: Looks like we are right on track to make that.27 per share by COB tomorrow including today's gains.:^
Looks like we DERAILED!!!
K, I'm through with trying to read the current climate. It's simply too unpredictable... not near as easy as it was last year.
God Bless:^
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