Tally for June 06 [Archive]

mlk_man

06-11-2006, 05:45 AM

I'm sending my moves to FundSurfer for his monthly and longer-term tallies. I like the idea of having a third party verify results. I also approached www.timertrac.com (http://www.timertrac.com) about this, but they weren't willing to track TSP returns/services.

I can send my returns periodically to Rokid if he wants to include them in his YTD and "since Jan 31" numbers.

ST

I don't believe it's right for you to have a pay site and continue to have your return posted here. Perhaps we should change this site to SystemTraderTalk.com?

Griffin is/was beating you, maybe he should start a site? I think you've used this site for you own advantage long enough. There's no I in team. Maybe it's time you just go.

JMHO,

M_M

SystemTrader

06-11-2006, 06:30 AM

That's interesting...

In the rest of the trading/investing world people beg for transparency. They want nothing more than to see a trading system, pay site or self-proclaimed guru allow a third party to verify their results. That's the whole raison d'etre for sites like www.timertrac.com and www.collective2.com.

Unfortunately, nothing like that exists for TSP pay sites. If there were, I'd sign up immediately. Since there isn't, I'm willing to be tracked here without ever publicly posting my URL or giving details about my site.

Last I checked, you don't make the calls here, but if Tom decides to take your advice, I'll comply. I've always followed the rules of this site.

Peace,
ST

I don't believe it's right for you to have a pay site and continue to have your return posted here. Perhaps we should change this site to SystemTraderTalk.com?

Griffin is/was beating you, maybe he should start a site? I think you've used this site for you own advantage long enough. There's no I in team. Maybe it's time you just go.

JMHO,

M_M

grandma

06-11-2006, 07:13 AM

I don't believe it's right for you to have a pay site and continue to have your return posted here.
M_M

...isn't ST saying he will be posting so that his returns can be monitored? I can understand the verification tracking, but wouldn't posting those moves be like Rev Shark having a pay newsletter but posting moves for the general public?
If ST is going to do `moves under the table' to Tom to be included in the tracking process, then maybe this would be a source of income for Tom & the site??? People buying into his newsletter would be like the TSPers who buy into Rev Shark's or any other sites: it doesn't detract from TSPTalk as loing as they don't announce that; also who cares whether someone is making moves based on Rev Shark's advice or not, or
with ST?? :) I just want all of us to have incoming funds Everyday, Whichever way - !!!

rokid

06-11-2006, 01:20 PM

Question, Rokid. What does the red highlight mean in the YTD column in the PDF's? :confused:
It's just an indicator that the YTD return doesn't cover the entire year. Originally, I was only producing the Tally Ranking for people who started at the beginning of Jan. However, I received a number of requests from people who wanted to be included even though they had started at some later point in Jan. Therefore, I've highlighted those partial YTD returns in red.

For example, according to the Tracker, you started being tracked on 9 Jan. Therefore, I've highlighted your YTD return in red. Let me know if that is incorrect.

Fivetears

06-11-2006, 05:57 PM

You have it exactly correct, Rokid. Thanks :) It's just an indicator that the YTD return doesn't cover the entire year. Originally, I was only producing the Tally Ranking for people who started at the beginning of Jan. However, I received a number of requests from people who wanted to be included even though they had started at some later point in Jan. Therefore, I've highlighted those partial YTD returns in red.

For example, according to the Tracker, you started being tracked on 9 Jan. Therefore, I've highlighted your YTD return in red. Let me know if that is incorrect.

Dave M

06-12-2006, 01:26 AM

Here's a thought. We could set up an account that represents the average of all TSP investors, with allocations to each fund in proportion to the percentage of the system total each holds. Are these figures available at TSP.gov?

The value would be, we could then see how we did as a group. Knowing the total dollar-amount invested in the program, we could say, "Federal employees made (lost) $XX in the last six months." Or whatever.

Dave

Dave M

06-12-2006, 10:49 PM

Here are the figures as of Dec 31 2005, 39G 6F 40C 8S 7I.

http://www.tsp.gov/cgi-bin/byteserver.cgi/forms/financial-stmt.pdf

Dave

Edit -- That gives a weighted return of 1.87% on the 160 billion $$ total invested, so far this year.

mlk_man

06-13-2006, 07:16 PM

sugarandspice

06-13-2006, 08:12 PM

Least anyone forget, here is the tally from the end of last Dec. Would you trust your money with someone that didn't even rank in the top 10 among investors on an amatuer investment website?

Five months does not make someone Warren Buffet.

All I got to say on the matter.

2005 Top Performers:

Dakota +14.01%
Show-me +13.43%
mlk_man +11.57%
Rolo +11.28%
Neirbod +10.16%
Pyriel +7.89%
Skip +7.69%
Systemtrade +7.62%* looks like he did to me *
Rod +7.56%
DrD +6.95%
TSPgo +6.22%
Mike +5.21%
Safetyguy +3.94%

* Other members may have had returns high enough to be on this list but did not qualify for one reason or other. To qualify, make sure you get your transfers documented here before the deadlines and if you are idle for several weeks, you may want to pop into your account so the Tallyman knows you are still with us.

Thanks and good luck!

What gives?

FundSurfer

06-13-2006, 08:25 PM

Additionally, many people on that list started after Jan. 3 and thus were given an N/A for the whole year. The reason for that was the huge correction that occured the first couple days of January that year. If you were in the market then, you started out in the hole quickly. Someone who started in middle of January would have missed that date.

Mlk_man, who you talking about? Techy? He didn't start till December sometime. Thus he wasn't on the chart at all.

The_Technician

06-13-2006, 09:09 PM

Seems there is gonna be some major adjustments over the last month on the funds......I is down almost 16%, S almost 13%, C almost 8% ......DANG....think about seeing that on the TSG.GOV site!!!! When is the last time yer seen that!!!!

Think 2000 is here all over again.....????

ayla

06-13-2006, 09:45 PM

I don't believe it's right for you to have a pay site and continue to have your return posted here. Perhaps we should change this site to SystemTraderTalk.com?

Griffin is/was beating you, maybe he should start a site? I think you've used this site for you own advantage long enough. There's no I in team. Maybe it's time you just go.

JMHO,

M_M

Thought I would add my "two cents" though I haven't been asked. I don't see the problem with System Trader posting here. How is he using this to his "own advantage" any more than the rest of us use TSPTalk to our advantage? Guess there is something I'm missing here.

I have had some advantage in watching SystemTrader's moves. I suspect others have too.

The main thing is that if he has a commecial operation somewhere else, he should refrain from spamming here. A link in his signature to his own site would be okay but I would hope that we wouldn't get any salesmanship type stuff coming from his posts. I haven't noticed any. Maybe I missed them.

FYI - I've seen other DIY forums that allow businesses to post and find their contributions extremely helpful. They DO have rules that require the businesses to refrain from "salesmanship" to any overt degree. We all get enough of that in our junk mail.

sugarandspice

06-13-2006, 10:00 PM

Only one person it seems has a problem. What the root of the problem is.....well we can all have difeering opinions. And there hasn't been any spam.

Dave M

06-13-2006, 10:08 PM

Ayla, did you notice you exactly match the average YTD return of all investors in the TSP? D

JAC

06-14-2006, 12:23 AM

I like the idea of both RevShark's and Systemtrader's returns being tracked here. It's the place to come to see who does the best, short, medium, and long-term.
Aren't RevShark and Systemtrader more likely to have problems with us rather than the other way round? Subscribers to this board are existing or potential clients. If their clients post their moves here, then the tally will show two groups of people trading identically through time with results identical to the two pros. That undercuts their business. I'm a bit surprised either TSPtalk or they don't explicitly ask such people not to trade publically.
Jonathan

ayla

06-14-2006, 12:37 AM

Ayla, did you notice you exactly match the average YTD return of all investors in the TSP? D

No I didn't notice, Dave. Thanks SO much for pointing it out to me. I'm trying to not think about my recent losses. Being "average" somehow doesn't thrill me that much, HA, HA. (But guess it could always be worse.)

mlk_man

06-14-2006, 12:54 AM

What gives?

I didn't think someone with two personalities would figure it out, but that's a pretty small demographic on this site anymore. If you look, a lot of people didn't post all year so they weren't included on the YTD total. I'd go by their 6-month total if that's the case. ST's 6-month to YTD return wasn't much different anyway, so just take the 6-moth return for everyone.

Does that "give" or do you need more time? :p

mlk_man

06-14-2006, 01:06 AM

Oh boy, okay here's to ya SystemTrader. You done good. You got these folks believing.. Nice job. :blink:

Oh heck, I forgot I said "that's all I have to say on the matter".

I wonder if Rolo is charging now on that other site...............LOL

JAC

06-14-2006, 01:24 AM

What's your point? That people who do worse than you shouldn't offer their advice for sale? If the pros are no better than average, tracking proves your point. Not tracking doesn't.

mlk_man

06-14-2006, 01:49 AM

You're being here less than a month explains my point. No worries, like I told ST, I'm for hire if he wants me to track him. Of couse he had to ask Fundsurfer to do it after that.

I'll just post in my account and when I send the weekly tracker from here on. Got other things to take of anywho.

Good luck and happy returns! :D

JAC

06-14-2006, 02:07 AM

Agreed, I'm as green as they come, both about the politics of this site and its subject. Both are interesting.

FundSurfer

06-14-2006, 03:45 AM

I've several times thought about signing up for several different sites TSP advice in order to track how they actually do. The problem with doing that is the money it takes to subscribe to all those sites. We've had several discussions about tsp advice sites before and how they are misleading with showing how well their system has done in backtesting. I think it would be a great service to have a rating. I'd be willing to track any and every tsp advice site just to have a third party who has verified what they have done. My problem with the pay sites has always been that you have no idea if you are really getting what you pay for. I personally don't care where you graduated or what fund you may have managed in the past, I care about track record. I sure as heck don't care to read about how well any system has done back testing.

Systemtrader showed up a couple months after I started doing the tracker and back then announced that he planned to eventually start his own site and asked me way back then if I'd be willing to track his moves once he no longer posted here. I said yes then thinking that he'd find out how hard it actually was and his plan to start his own site would fade. I just went back and checked and he leads everyone in percentage gained since he started posting by over a percent. Part of that is his move to G in May which has pushed him past Dakota and Show-me but that's where he is at.

I'm not a systemtrader apologist but I have to admit he has gained a certain amount of respect from me for doing as well as he has done. I'm also interested in seeing if he can keep it going. If anyone wants to start there own site, I say more power to them. If they can get people to pay for their advice, great for them.

As to competition with TSPTALK, that's Tom's call. Systemtrader is competition with RevShark but there is always going to be competition. There are 80+ others who post their moves for free that are also being tracked that to a certain extent are competition. I notice that you have paid for RevShark's advice despite being able to see the daily moves of a bunch of other people many of whom for the moment are ahead of Rev. That isn't a put down of the Rev, I think he'll do fine long run, but it does point out a fact about how people decide to subscribe to a service and it isn't all about a Tally.

tsptalk

06-14-2006, 04:13 AM

It is something ST and I have discussed via PM and I have given it some thought but have not come to a decision yet. He has been more than gracious handling the situation and because of that his is one of only a few TSP competitors sites that I have not blocked from advertising on my Google ads - which will likely brings in some revenue for me.

If I didn't have the Rev's newsletter it would be a no brainer, but this is in direct competition with that service. One thing I do take into consideration is that I spend about $3000 a month to advertise TSP Talk in the search engines. (so it wouldn't hurt my feelings if you visit an advertiser if an ad interests you.) This site has one of the highest concentration of TSP participants on the web. It is a gold mine for TSP services looking to advertise. Giving it away free wouldn't be very smart. The traffic here warrants charging over $500 month for someone to put a banner ad on the home page (about $240 for the message board). I'd like to come up with a good compromise because ST is a good guy and we both want to benefit somehow. That's where we stand.

I'm don't quite understand why mlk_man is so concerned, but I sure appreciate how loyal he has been to this site over the years.

Tom

JAC

06-14-2006, 06:03 AM

Yep. As mlk-man points out, I am a newbie, looking to learn. Ever grateful that people here are willing to share what they know and answer stupid questions. And to the folks, such as yourself, apparently, and mlk_man, who do the grunt work.

Whether RevShark or ST do well or poorly isn't the issue. It just isn't cricket to blab their moves, even if they suck. There's a lot more to running an internet business than blurbs on a message board.

TSPTalk'ers (or ST or RS) haven't publically traded TSP funds long enough (2004, max?) to evaluate. Who's leading the pack YTD or FY2005 is interesting, but at the timescale of federal careers and TSP participation, it's peanuts.

RevShark, on the other hand, is demonstrably the real deal, tho perhaps others merely posting here have equally distinguished, long-term records. Learn from those who do.

As far as business models go, I think the conflict is more apparent than real. TSPTalk is a newspaper, a one-stop TSP shop. Dick, and Harry believe in their product and want to sell advice. Tracking their results along with everyone else's in the town square is both advertising and validation. If RevShark has an exclusive w TSPTalk, presumably that factors into the RevShark newsletter price, but in the long run that exclusivity undermines TSPTalk' credibility.

sugarandspice

06-14-2006, 05:53 PM

The system.

People gain credibility when they say they have something that works, they use it, and it produces results.

Talk is cheap. Walking the walk is conviction.

nnuut

06-14-2006, 08:59 PM

I have no system and don't pretend to. Others say they do and don't have any idea how to come up with a system, but are always referring to their "signals" or "system indicators" or something? HA! that’s a good one!:cheesy:

tsptalk

06-14-2006, 10:29 PM

If their clients post their moves here, then the tally will show two groups of people trading identically through time with results identical to the two pros. That undercuts their business. I'm a bit surprised either TSPtalk or they don't explicitly ask such people not to trade publically.

Exactly. We do ask the TSP Timing Newsletter subscribers to not participate in the Tally if they are just following along with the service.

The point of the tally is for members to make transfers and explain why they are doing what they are doing so in the end we are helping others. And that is what TSP Talk is all about. Some people aren't interested in taking the time to learn and depend on the services to do the work for them - which is fine. But they should not want to take credit for it on the tally.

In the end RevShark pays me good money to present, process, and promote the newsletter. If SystemTrader wanted to do the same it would make it a more fair playing field. But as I mentioned, ST was gracious enough to realize he could be taking away business from RevShark. And that's where we stand now. I'd love to work something out. Please PM me if you have any ideas.

Thanks,
Tom

sugarandspice

06-15-2006, 03:21 PM

Others say they do and don't have any idea how to come up with a system, but are always referring to their "signals" or "system indicators" or something? HA! that’s a good one!:cheesy:

If your "system" works why not use it instead of chasing various funds trying to make up losses. You wouldn't have losses if your "system" was any good.

No system here and I didn't back test anything for three years and I didn't get 20% per year every year I backtested even in the bear years and I didn't...blah....blah....blah.

FundSurfer

06-15-2006, 03:48 PM

If your "system" works why not use it instead of chasing various funds trying to make up losses. You wouldn't have losses if your "system" was any good.

No "system" is perfect and any "system" will have losses. I prefer to use a "system" because it helps me limit my emotions. It is actually when I let my emotions make my decisions that I make wrong moves. I would think that someone with so many emotions could really appreciate that....:cheesy:

Is there such a thing as a schizophrenetic system? I'm sure S&S would be tops. BTW, S&S, congrats on the good moves.

sugarandspice

06-15-2006, 03:57 PM

The only time I can make financial decisions is when I am emotionless! And to get to that state requires heavy doses of medication to reach the state just before catatonia. Just before slipping in I can make decisions. Once there I am useless for hours. Then there is a window when I am coming out of it that I can make decisions before "they" come back. Looks like I bailed a little early but I like to keep gains more than I like to "ride it out." Just gettin lucky.

sugarandspice

06-15-2006, 03:59 PM

Sugar,

"Just gettin lucky"........ Another thing that never happened to you in your youth.......or ever for that matter.

nnuut

06-15-2006, 06:34 PM

If your "system" works why not use it instead of chasing various funds trying to make up losses. You wouldn't have losses if your "system" was any good.

No system here and I didn't back test anything for three years and I didn't get 20% per year every year I backtested even in the bear years and I didn't...blah....blah....blah.

System, what system, Losses what losses we don't have no stinkin' losses senior.:D Or senioritas?;)

Griffin

06-15-2006, 06:42 PM

Sugar,

"Just gettin lucky"........ Another thing that never happened to you in your youth.......or ever for that matter.

Save it for the first ever annual TSP Talk Convention

I got 10 shares of F that aren't doing me any good for the brave sole willing to go there. 20 if you get it on tape :D

tsptalk

06-17-2006, 05:33 AM

Trackers -

RevShark 2/1 - 6/16 = +3.28%

mlk_man

06-17-2006, 01:11 PM

Trackers -

RevShark 2/1 - 6/16 = +3.28%

Tom, I have 3.35%?

tsptalk

06-17-2006, 04:16 PM

When do you have his last allocation being effective? Since he just missed the deadline on Thursday, I have it effective this Monday. Maybe that is the difference. I'll PM you my sheet.

rokid

06-19-2006, 12:35 AM

Tally Rankings for the week ending 16 June. Note, I've included Tom's long term allocation. It has returned 2.83% YTD.

Fundsurfer is the leader of the pack with a 10.99% return YTD. Congratulations, Fundsurfer!:nuts:

sugarandspice

06-19-2006, 05:01 PM

To whom it may concern,

The charts seem to say that a certain participant to remain unnamed is near the top of the list for % return. Given the posts by said person it would seem to dissuade any future membership. I can only suggest that perhaps this persons accounts and any other posts she has made be temporarily deleted/ locked/unviewable until the charts can adjust themselves to put her in the proper ranking. The lucky streak will end and when it does then you can reinstate her. I feel this is best for the site. Don't hesistate to take action and any protests from her should be ignored. I want to the site grow and with her near the top it can't be good.

tsptalk

06-19-2006, 06:55 PM

I understand Sugar and I'll take it into consideration. Have you consulted with Spice on this?

sugarandspice

06-19-2006, 07:08 PM

It was her idea. I can't seem to get a handle on her like she has on me.

rokid

06-28-2006, 09:24 AM

Fundsurfer is still leading the pack with a 10.66% YTD return. Faustus is second with a 9.67% YTD return. Congratulations to all of you gravity defying TSPers! :nuts:

rokid

07-02-2006, 11:23 PM

Attached is the final tally for June. Fundsurfer, Wheels, and Sugarandspice have the top YTD returns. Interestingly, 13 TSPers dropped off of the Tracker this month. Tough market!:cheesy:

mlk_man

07-03-2006, 01:57 AM

I could of sworn Fundsurfer was doing the monthly tally's? Hmmmmm

As you say, interesting...........

Mike

07-03-2006, 10:05 AM

Interestingly, 13 TSPers dropped off of the Tracker this month. Tough market!:cheesy:
Quasi-rant coming... :D
It might be the market, or it might be that they think they can do better without having to post every move. That's the conclusion I reached quite awhile ago when I asked to be removed from it. Maybe it's just dumb luck / fate, but my returns did improve considerably after I stopped posting what I was doing (and no, this has nothing to do with manipulating the numbers - I have all the IFT's if anyone's really interested in knowing my return right now). :p

I just want to make money. As for the monthly/weekly/yearly competition... meh. If retiring a few years earlier than anticipated means sacrificing online bragging rights for an occasional good month/year, I'll gladly make that trade.

And mlk_man, stop emailing me that damn tracker! :p

rokid

07-03-2006, 12:32 PM

Attached is the Feb 1 through June 30th 2006 comparison between RevShark and our own TSPers. Although the Rev continues to do well, our chief TSPer, Tom, has pulled ahead of him by .27%. Go Tom!:cheesy:

FundSurfer

07-03-2006, 12:53 PM

I'm taking advantage of the July 4th Holiday. I'm headed to the beach today and am out of town. I probably will not be able to post the complete Tally till later in the week.

mlk_man

07-03-2006, 01:54 PM

And mlk_man, stop emailing me that damn tracker! :p

Oh, I thought you just wanted off the tracker not the e-mail list. Soooo sorry. Now e-mail me so I know what your damn e-mail address is!!!! :p

Just kidding, I remember yours......................;)

mlk_man

07-03-2006, 01:55 PM

I'm taking advantage of the July 4th Holiday. I'm headed to the beach today and am out of town. I probably will not be able to post the complete Tally till later in the week.

Priorities son!!!!!!!!!!!! :cheesy:

ayla

07-03-2006, 03:19 PM

rokid - do you think you might include the Wizard of Oz on your list? Looks like he didn't join until March but his returns are 16.59% since then so looks like he could be one of those that are included but marked in red? (maybe next time, I'm not asking you to do this one over)

Wheels

07-03-2006, 04:22 PM

It might be the market, or it might be that they think they can do better without having to post every move.

I don't get the connection. How have your moves changed as a result of not having to spend that one extra minute to post them here.

My guess is that your improved returns are merely a coincidence. They could just as easily have gotten worse.

That being said, improved returns are improved returns. Congratulations.

Dave
<><

tsptalk

07-03-2006, 05:07 PM

It might be the market, or it might be that they think they can do better without having to post every move.

Whatever it takes to make the big bucks. As long as you are using the spreadsheet and are honest with yourself, as I am sure you are.

For the newer folks - We started these "Member Account" threads because it seemed like every new poster came by and said something along the lines of, "I'm up 25% this year!", and the S&P may have been up like 6% at the time. We would all be happy here if we had something like a 7% to 10% return and this new person was all of a sudden giving advice with nothing to back up his claim.

I don't recall who suggested it, it may or may not have been me, but we needed a way to get these people to "put up, or shut up". And that's how it started.

Interesting to note, the folks at the top of the current Tally are either quietly doing well, and are very modest about their strong returns. So next time an obnoxious braggard stops by, ask them to put up, or shut up. :D

Tom

tsptalk

07-03-2006, 05:25 PM

I don't get the connection. How have your moves changed as a result of not having to spend that one extra minute to post them here.

In my case I would also like to use the postings as an excuse. It's probably unfounded but if I don't make a decision by about 11:15 ET, I'm probably not going to make a transfer on any given day.

I may see a need for a change and while I'm preparing the email alerts, posting my move to the message board, updating and uploading the blog (http://www.tsptalk.com/blog) (new this year) I'm still trying to decide exactly what allocation to move to. Then I have to make the transfer to both my account and my wife's. Later I go in and change the returns and allocation spreadsheets and upload them to the website.

You'll never see an interfund transfer post from me in the message board at 11:55. I have never made a transfer in my account if I did not do all of that first. Only once did I send everything out but forgot to make my interfund transfer on tsp.gov. :)

Those who have been with me for the two and half years we've been around may have notice a drop off in my performance the last year or so. It might be coincidence but I have added so much to my plate that it may be hurting me.

So I'd say it has been a slight disadvantage and why I have actually become less active. Not that there is anything wrong with being less active. Maybe I need to hire an intern or staff like RevShark does, so I can concentrate on the trading, which is what I really like to do. I wish. :)

rokid

07-03-2006, 05:26 PM

Ayla,

Done. See attached. I've included all of the tracked accounts. The accounts started after 31 Jan 2006 are in a separate section.

mlk_man

07-03-2006, 05:28 PM

You'll also notice that some of the big talkers don't post their moves anymore either................:blink:

tsptalk

07-03-2006, 05:30 PM

You'll also notice that some of the big talkers don't post their moves anymore either................:blink:
Bingo! That was one of my points in the last paragraph here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=49044&postcount=56. We [almost] think alike.

mlk_man

07-03-2006, 05:33 PM

We think alike.

Retract that statement now!!!!!!! :p

BTW, I'll be for hire in 1.5 years. Maybe sooner.............:D

tsptalk

07-03-2006, 05:41 PM

Start working on your resume. :)

By the way, I like today's quote from Martin Luther King Jr (hmmm, MLK?... any connection? Just noticed that.)

sugarandspice

07-03-2006, 05:55 PM

Interesting to note, the folks at the top of the current Tally are either quietly doing well, and are very modest about their strong returns. So next time an obnoxious braggard stops by, ask them to put up, or shut up. :D

Tom

Dont forget about the mental instability that allows a certain someone to be able to stumble and freefall past major drops and somehow still come out fairly well. I know the hammer will fall on her and when it does we will all see what is inside.

tsptalk

07-03-2006, 06:07 PM

I said they were modest, not necessarily stable. :)

mlk_man

07-03-2006, 06:34 PM

Start working on your resume. :)

By the way, I like today's quote from Martin Luther King Jr (hmmm, MLK?... any connection? Just noticed that.)

I'm his .............wait, better not say that. Someone might try to sue me or something..........:blink:

TiCKed

07-03-2006, 08:48 PM

Ok....Quick question: Do the trackers use the same spreadsheet or methodology as the free spreadsheet available on this site?

Reason I ask is that I'm continually getting a slightly higher return for myself than what is posted for me. (Thru June, my YTD tally is 5.19% vs. the "official" 5.11%).

I just re-checked all of my posted moves, and rechecked all daily prices at the TSP site, and can't find any mistakes at my end.

Not a big deal since I'll never contend for top return....But I'm just wondering.

rokid

07-03-2006, 09:14 PM

I use MM's tracker. Attached is your sheet.---Rokid

ayla

07-03-2006, 10:48 PM

rokid - Thanks for adding the Wizard of Oz and being so prompt.

TiCKed

07-03-2006, 11:27 PM

I use MM's tracker. Attached is your sheet.---Rokid

Thanks!

Took me a little while, but I found the problem. The share prices for 17 February are wrong!

(Not that I enjoy finding you in error....Just that I spent so much time trying to find MY error, that I thought I was nuts. :))

No big deal...again, I don't expect to scare the top performers anytime soon. :o

Added: Not to be a pest, but 31 May also contains an error.

mlk_man

07-04-2006, 02:37 AM

Ticked, you are right about Feb 17th. YOurs appears to be the only like that. May 31st is okay though. It's just not rounded to 2 decimal places.

YOur current return as of the end of June now says 5.16%.

Mike

07-04-2006, 04:22 AM

I don't get the connection. How have your moves changed as a result of not having to spend that one extra minute to post them here.
Peer pressure. By going up against the others, I felt compelled to do things I otherwise would not do with my account in order to try to gain a competitive edge. I also made more moves than I make now.

My guess is that your improved returns are merely a coincidence. They could just as easily have gotten worse.
That's certainly a possibility, but these are the last trades I have made - you can judge for yourself - after being 100 G during the correction (I only made one limited move into the market during a short-term move up in the market back in early May I think - otherwise I was all G), I then did the following:
40 C / 25 S / 15 I - 6/13/06 ($13.53 / $16.37 / $18.27)
Added 10 C and 10 I - fully invested now - 6/14/06 ($13.40 / - / $17.73)
40 G / 20 C / 20 S / 20 I - 7/3/06 ($11.43 / $14.03 / $17.34 / $19.48)

If I was still posting the account here, I don't know if I have it in me to pull the trigger on the 13th and 14th last month. I also don't know if I have it in me to pull some out today.

Tom - you also have a point - and I think that may have something to do with karma (if you believe in that sort of thing). Speak softly and carry a big stick (or profit in this case). My calculations are probably slightly different than yours since I don't use the tracker - my account to contribution ratio is still low enough that contributions matter a great deal (a whopping 2%+ is added to my account each pay period :nuts: ). For that reason, I continue to use the standard formula that has final account value minus half of amount contributed divided by initial account value plus half of amount contributed for each given period. FWIW, that formula gives me a 1st Q return of 2.756%, so no number inflation going on here. :)

Wheels

07-04-2006, 07:07 PM

Peer pressure. By going up against the others, I felt compelled to do things I otherwise would not do with my account in order to try to gain a competitive edge.

I guess I can see that. I do keep an eye on the "competition". Particularly Fundsurfer, that scoundrel.
But in the end, my decisions boil down to A. making money and B. preserving money. I'd like to think my moves would be the same whether I was posting them or not.

Now if I was in a situation where a lot of people were blindly replicating my moves (a' la Tom), then that might effect my trigger finger as it has his.

Dave
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mlk_man

07-05-2006, 02:57 PM

Just wanted to let everyone know that as of the end of June, we have 13 of 85 people being tracked beating every fund since the time they first started. Some have been doing it longer than others. That's 15.29% which includes RevShark.

Nice job!!

FundSurfer

07-07-2006, 06:05 PM

June Last Qtr Last 6 mon Last 12 mon YTD
G-fund 0.44% 1.32% 2.40% 4.67% 2.40%
F-fund 0.19% -0.09% -0.65% -0.72% -0.65%
C-fund 0.07% -1.45% 2.72% 8.49% 2.72%
S-fund 0.47% -3.55% 6.01% 14.16% 6.01%
I-fund 0.00% 0.97% 10.17% 24.33% 10.17%
20% Each 0.23% -0.56% 4.13% 10.18% 4.13%

Top 10 Year to Date June Last Qtr Last 6 mon Last 12 mon YTD
Fundsurfer 4.33% 5.36% 12.87% #N/A 12.87%
Wheels 4.01% 4.90% 12.40% #N/A 12.40%
Faustus 2.43% 7.40% 9.42% 15.48% 9.42%
Pogo 0.10% 0.87% 8.31% #N/A 8.31%
Dave M 0.84% 2.60% 8.02% 12.84% 8.02%
soldat 0.00% 2.49% 7.85% #N/A 7.85%
nightlite 0.16% 0.79% 7.20% #N/A 7.20%
Namor 0.00% -1.41% 7.17% 7.14% 7.17%
Nnuut 0.48% 4.15% 6.77% 9.81% 6.77%
Safetyguy 0.44% 2.15% 6.75% 9.75% 6.75%

Top 10 Last 12 months June Last Qtr Last 6 mon Last 12 mon YTD
Show-me 1.29% 0.22% 5.96% 19.15% 5.96%
Beavis 1.52% -0.09% 6.33% 18.09% 6.33%
Dakota 0.23% -2.25% 4.44% 16.02% 4.44%
Neirbod 0.19% -1.92% 3.61% 15.89% 3.61%
Faustus 2.43% 7.40% 9.42% 15.48% 9.42%
Dave M 0.84% 2.60% 8.02% 12.84% 8.02%
mlk_man -1.21% -4.65% 0.54% 11.68% 0.54%
Tekno -0.05% 0.03% 5.58% 11.55% 5.58%
Rokid 0.25% -1.28% 4.61% 11.39% 4.61%
Pyriel 0.00% -2.51% 1.69% 10.26% 1.69%

Top 10 Last 3 months June Last Qtr Last 6 mon Last 12 mon YTD
Wizard of Oz 8.53% 14.44% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Pointman72 4.90% 9.62% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Faustus 2.43% 7.40% 9.42% 15.48% 9.42%
sugarandspice 2.51% 6.24% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Fundsurfer 4.33% 5.36% 12.87% #N/A 12.87%
RevShark 0.85% 5.49% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Wheels 4.01% 4.90% 12.40% #N/A 12.40%
Nnuut 0.48% 4.15% 6.77% 9.81% 6.77%
Aggie76 2.18% 2.61% 6.38% 8.69% 6.38%
Dave M 0.84% 2.60% 8.02% 12.84% 8.02%

Top 10 for June June Last Qtr Last 6 mon Last 12 mon YTD
Wizard of Oz 8.53% 14.44% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Ocean 5.58% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Pointman72 4.90% 9.62% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Fundsurfer 4.33% 5.36% 12.87% #N/A 12.87%
Wheels 4.01% 4.90% 12.40% #N/A 12.40%
Sonny 3.05% 1.86% 1.78% #N/A 1.78%
TSP_Elvis 2.68% 2.35% 6.74% #N/A 6.74%
sugarandspice 2.51% 6.24% #N/A #N/A #N/A
Faustus 2.43% 7.40% 9.42% 15.48% 9.42%
Aggie76 2.18% 2.61% 6.38% 8.69% 6.38%

Sorry for the delay, but the sun and surf were too good to pass up.

See attached file for full listing. Remember that the difference between this listing and the one published by Rokid is that this Tally has had the effects of compounding removed so that we are comparing apples to apples. Otherwise someone who has been posting since January would have a compounding advantage in the monthly numbers (typically a few tenths of a percent). This does add up over the course of the year.

Also, in order to have a number for the month, you have to have been posting prior to the begining of the month.

No "Last 6 Mon" since it is same as YTD (Year to Date).

Congrats to "Wizard of Oz" who had an outstanding month of June with 8.53%.

Also congrats to Tsptalk with a 5.73% return for June.

[Milk_man I found an error on my sheet that reduced my YTD :( . I'll e-mail you the current sheet I have.]