mlk_man's account talk [Archive]

07-16-2004, 03:37 AM

mlk_man wrote: Basically I'm sort of following the 3-moving averages that are explained on http://www.tspmoney.com. But instead of waiting till the fast moving moves below or above the slower moving trends, I have "set" cut-offs of .30 above and .20 below the 30-day average price of each share of whichever fund. I do "tinker" with it a bit and buy-sell according to comments I see or feelings I get. But for the most part, I follow my simple plan.

I'm confused. In your excel spreadsheet, you emphasize the 63 day moving average, with a sell point .30 above that, and the buy point .20 below the 63 day moving average. You went out of your way to figure that out for us as an example. Yet in your quote above, you say that you look at the 30 day avg. as your get in get out point. Which one is more important. Humbly,

Joel

P.S.- I have been pasting in the prices and came up with the 63 day avg's of the stock funds as follows:

C

S

I

11.80

12.82

13.20

And the current share prices at:

11.69

12.75

13.28

Is this what you have? According to your system, we would not be in any of the funds, with the C fund .11 from a buy, the S fund .13 from a buy (both need to go lower by this much) and the I fund is way over the average. Am I on the right track with this? I'm still in the G fund 100%

Thanks for your help.

Joel

07-16-2004, 03:38 AM

Sorry about the graphics, that did not paste exactly how it was showing. I hope you can understand it.

Joel

07-16-2004, 01:08 PM

Yes you are correct, current 63-day moving averages are C - 11.8, S - 12.8, and I - 13.2. That would put"buy" signals at C - 11.6, S - 12.6 and I - 13.0. Current prices are C - 11.6, S - 12.7, and I - 13.2. So we have a "buy" signal for the C fund. I'm am currently 50% C and 50% S because of my own stupidity and bought too soon. I have to learn to just follow my rules and not listen to the stock market voices in my head. You know "buy mike buy", "no mike, don't do it!" Makes me think of "Animal House" :P

If I could post my charts I would, but don't seem to be able to. I'll send them to Tom and perhaps he can do it for me. I hope this is okay Tom. My moving averages shows me that the fast moving averages for the C and S funds are below the intermediate and fast moving averages but seem to leveling out, a very good sign. The I funds fast moving average just dipped below the intermediate average. I would stay away from it for awhile longer.

That's it. Going 100% C today because of my buy signal. Hopefully the S will drop a little more and we'll get a buy signal next week and get back into it at that time. Now if the prices drop further, don't get too concerned because they WILL come back up. They continued to drop in May but I wasn't doing my moving averages at that time so I had no way of knowing if the moving averages where leveling out or not.

100% C. :^ Hope this helps, good luck.

Frizz B.

07-16-2004, 01:43 PM

How true How true, I was listening to the voices saying July would be a good start for the climb of the stocks, where my differential theory said to move to the G fund. But I to believed that it was time for the stocks to start their rise out of this flux we have been in and I am getting killed right now. No one to blame but myself and my differential theory says it is time to get back in the stocks and so I stay, getting hammered. I still believe the stocks will rebound and I will break out even in the long run. But I missed a great opportunity to gain another 4-7% on my yearly total. :dude:

07-16-2004, 01:52 PM

Yepper, have to "kill" the voices! :s

I believe our systems very similiar, just use different termage and values. Relief is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hopefully.........................:oo

tsptalk

07-16-2004, 04:54 PM

mlk_man wrote: If I could post my charts I would, but don't seem to be able to. I'll send them to Tom and perhaps he can do it for me. I hope this is okay Tom.

No problem.

mlk_man's chart... fund_charts.xls (http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/fund_charts.xls)

07-16-2004, 05:00 PM

Sorry all, forgot to label my series. The blue is fast moving-average, the pink is intermediate, and the yellow is slow.

07-16-2004, 05:28 PM

MLK man wrote:

Yes you are correct, current 63-day moving averages are C - 11.8, S - 12.8, and I - 13.2. That would put"buy" signals at C - 11.6, S - 12.6 and I - 13.0. Current prices are C - 11.6, S - 12.7, and I - 13.2. So we have a "buy" signal for the C fund."

I'm not trying to get technical, I'm just trying to understand this. Here goes: I don't understand why there would be a "buy" for the C fund when it is at 12.69 now (not 12.6) and it needs to get down to 12.6 for a buy. Am I wrong to suggest that there is some significance with a stock fund with a small share price having a differance between 12.6 and 12.69 (percentage is actually .7%) Is that significant? Just trying to learn. The S fund is at 12.75, not 12.7 as well. Myabe it works without being that precise. What do you think?

Joel

Mike

07-19-2004, 09:34 AM

Prices as of the end of Friday's trading are: C 11.64, S 12.65, and I 13.39.

07-19-2004, 01:22 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote: I'm not trying to get technical, I'm just trying to understand this. Here goes: I don't understand why there would be a "buy" for the C fund when it is at 12.69 now (not 12.6) and it needs to get down to 12.6 for a buy. Am I wrong to suggest that there is some significance with a stock fund with a small share price having a differance between 12.6 and 12.69 (percentage is actually .7%) Is that significant? Just trying to learn. The S fund is at 12.75, not 12.7 as well. Myabe it works without being that precise. What do you think?

Joel

I only go down one decimal place and not two. Close enough for me and it seems to work best but do your own calculations and do what you think is best. This time it would of been best to wait till it dropped to the actual 12.63 for the C fund, but it doesn't always work that way. You definately don't won't to miss the rally up.

So, that being said, we now have a buy signal for the S fund so I'm going 50% C and 50% S today to take effect tomorrow morning.

Good luck.

tsptalk

07-19-2004, 05:21 PM

mlk_man wrote: So, that being said, we now have a buy signal for the S fund so I'm going 50% C and 50% S today to take effect tomorrow morning.

Two petty comments mlk. On July 15th you wrote:

"I went 50% C and 50% S yesterday on a hunch. DON'T DO THAT! Still a bit early to jump in according to my system, but I did it anyway. I'll just go ahead and stay in since I feel a rebound is soon coming. Hopefully. If not, it'll be back up eventually. My advice is jump in on Friday if stocks are down again today."

And that's the last allocation change I see from you, so what is happening tomorrow (July 20th) that is different?

Also, as a reminder, we have a rule that says we can't say things like"yesterday I went 100% X fund....". If you make a change it has to be statedbefore the deadline on the day you make the allocation change. It sounds petty but itis to prevent people from Monday morning quarterbacking and eliminate anyquestions about when transactions took place.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html)

Thanks!!
Tom

07-19-2004, 07:26 PM

You're right. I thought I was still 100% C fund. Forgot I bought into S fund early untill I went to change my allocation. Mainly just wanted to tell folks we got a buy signal for the S fund now. However, by the looks of the markets, we may challenge the May lows for the year. So prices may fall another 20 cents or so.

Petty? Hmmm, just an honest mistake. Don't shoot me please. :'

tsptalk

07-19-2004, 07:42 PM

Petty on my part.

I do appreciate you guys/gals who post your account info andtransactions. It helps the new folks see the thought process of making an allocation change.That's what this is all about. Helping people understand how they maywant to manage their money (trade / buy and hold etc.)

A couple of members posted their accounts in a buy and hold fashion but I don't hear from them much. I guess that's the beauty of diversifying or a long term approach. They don't have to think about it every day. :)

Tom

07-21-2004, 01:19 PM

Were you in C and S yesterday jgpalmerdds? If you had waited till the C hit 12.63, which is the 63-day moving average, you would of missed the little bounce back in the C fund yesterday. Of course, if you would of been 100% S, it would of been better. :cool:But that's why I only carry it out to one decimal place. I think I may actually start getting in and out when the current price gets to within .05 of the moving average. We'll see,, I have to do some calculations. We all know this not an "exact" science.

I love it when a system works like it should. Hopefully it will be up from here for awhile. :^

Oh, and don't expect the values to be right on all the time either. Most times it will drop a little further when youbuy and go up a little farther when you sell. I just try to minimize the damage and make sure I catch the bigger wave.

Currently up 13.10% with a combination of C, S, and I. Would be up 16.20% if I only used S and I. It's the conservative in me. :P

07-21-2004, 08:51 PM

No, I did not get in. The main reason is that I did not read your post until after 12:00 pm, so I did not get in the same day as you, and I am glad, as the market got killed today (which should be more of a reason for me to get in). I am also trying to see the consistancy of the system (I'm still new). I will run the numbers tonight, which will show a buy. Tell me, do you ever do mid day numbers when you see the market going one direction, let' s say you are close to a buy, and it is heading into the buy range at 11:00 a.m., do you then make a trade effective for the next day? I ask this because sometimes I don't get a look at my computer until after 12:00 noon.

Basically, I'm not in as of right now. If I place the order, it won't be effective until Friday. What do you think?

Also, I understand about not getting in at the bottom or out at the top, no one can consistantly do that. The way to look at it, is lets say go for 2% a month (consistant singles and doubles) and not worry about the home run, then at the end of the year you look back and you are up 24%!! That is what I see in your system and the reason I am so interested. Thanks for your time.

Joel

07-22-2004, 02:15 PM

I'm finally in, starting tomorrow, as I made a change from 100% G to 50% C, 50% S as you did earlier. And yes, those two averages fell .2 below the 63 day moving average finally after yesterday. We will see how this goes. Of course, I'm shorting the market (with margin) in my private IRA money which is quite a contradiction to this, I guess. Take care.

Joel

07-22-2004, 02:48 PM

Good call on waiting till now Joel. :^ The funds may still fall a little further, but it's all okay. Actually, it would be nice for you if they did fall more today.

With my sell at 30 cents above and buy at 20 cents below the moving average, I'm looking for about a 4% gain. Your thought of attempting a 2% gain each month is interesting, but I don't think it would be feesible with the TSP because of our one day delay and you don't know if the markets will go up or down on that one day. Could try with a private broker just make sure your trading enough money to cover expenses.

Let me know if you do. I may try some calculations later to see how it would work. My first impression is probably not, but we'll see.

Good luck to ya,

Mike

Rolo

07-22-2004, 03:20 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote: The way to look at it, is lets say go for 2% a month (consistant singles and doubles) and not worry about the home run, then at the end of the year you look back and you are up 24%!!
hehe, I tried thinking that way with my brokerage account, trying for 5%/month. It doesn't seem to work that way, at least not with my über-volatile holdings and not in this market. In a bull market, it seems to work, I vyed for 20%/month in 2003 and I did achieve that (78% for the year, 30% higher than the highest index).

I still bear the premise in my mind as the closest thing to an anchor to sanity, as it usually forced me to lock-in profits and mitigate losses in order to maintain some semblence of consistency. In fact, I am glad you said that, I needed the reminder.

07-22-2004, 05:12 PM

I just threw the 2% out as an example. Thanks for the info. I'm just trying MLK's formula in it's purest form. Yes, the one day delay is always a problem. That is why that I asked if you ever look at the market in the morning when you are on the border of selling/buying and trade before 12:00 EST? Like today, let's say you are close to a buy signal in the S fund, and you see the S fund at this point down 1.3%, do you make the call before noon to buy so you the end of day price? Just wondering, and thanks for your help.

Joel

P.S.- my timing service is looking real smart right now as a 14% loss (with margin)has turned into a 5% gain or so shorting the market, as long as you stayed in all this time. It is a longer trend timing model

07-22-2004, 07:29 PM

I haven't tried to time the market midday. I just wait till the end of the session. As you can see, the market is coming back up now. You can try if you like and see what happens. It's sometimes nice to stay where you're at for another day because sometimes the market goes up or a little more accordingly. Sometimes not though. :shock:

Starting to look like we might reach the May lows for the year. I was little afraid of that but not a big deal. Hopefully it means the end is near!:^

07-23-2004, 02:18 PM

Hang in there folks, relief is coming. Although we continue to fall, especially the S fund, my system has tried to minimize the losses. If you're following my system, we bought C fund at 11.64 and the S fund 12.63. Current prices are C - 11.59 and S - 12.47. So we have lost a bit more with the S fund but stand to gain back more also.

If you were a buy and hold person, you would currently be watching the S fund fall from $13.22 all the way to $12.47. OUCH!!

Now the bad news. In May the S fund fell all the way to $12.16. :shock:Will this happen again? Don't know. I do know that the S fund fell for 17 straight days in May then sarting coming back. right now we have been falling for 15 days. I'm actually expecting a rebound either today or Monday, probably Monday. I'm only hoping that we don't take a big hit today. Mainly because of my individual stocks not my TSP cause I'm in till we come back up now. You could get out and wait till things come back up, but you stand the chance of missing something big.

Again, if you look back to May, we bought the S fund for $12.78 on May 3rd. We had to wait until June 28th to sell it at $13.07 for a 29 cent gain. So sometimes it takes awhile, but eventually we get a gain out of it.

The I fund is getting close to a "buy" signal, I would look for that early next week and then we'll jump into that also.

Good luck all, have a good weekend .

Mike

Rolo

07-23-2004, 02:54 PM

mlk_man wrote: I'm only hoping that we don't take a big hit today. Mainly because of my individual stocks not my TSP cause I'm in till we come back up now.
hehehe, You're not the only one. Ow...quit it.

What stocks do you hold? I am questioning my buys this week, SUN and GI, but I am hanging in there for right now. Do you use similar MA's to buy/sell stocks as well?

07-23-2004, 03:25 PM

I'm mainly going with small companies because I'm only playing around with $1000 to see how it goes. The companies I like most are the ones trading around their 52-week lows that have company big wigs with stock in the company. You're two choices look like they're trading around the top of their averages. :shock:But I'm probably wrong about my thinking. Just starting out. :P

Currently I have VSL, MTE, AAI, SFP and SONSE.

07-23-2004, 03:58 PM

Mike,

So right now, with 50% S, 50% C, do we take a sixth out of each and allocate a full 33% to I when there is a buy? Leaving it 33% for each of the stock funds? Thanks.

By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!

Joel

07-23-2004, 05:18 PM

Thanks I'll do that. My account is with Scottrade. Not doing to well with my individuals right now. Hopefully it will turn around when the market comes back up. An inverse fund would be nice, do they have monetary restrictions? I mentioned RYVNX, which follow the inverse of the NASDAQ, to Rolo and he informed me you have to invest $50000 minimum. Don't quite have that much yet.:X

Also, I have decided to adjust my "buy" and "sell" signals a little bit. I told you that I typically only carry out my numbers to one decimal place. After looking at past prices and transactions, I believe I will carry the prices to two decimal places and "buy" and "sell" when the stock price is within .05 of my signal.

For example, if my "buy" signal is $12.68, I would "buy" when the price of the fund is within $12.63 - $12.73. (12.68 +- .05) Occasionally the price will not drop exactly to the moving average price. On Feb 04, 2004 the S fund fell to $12.69 and the price of our "buy" signal was $12.68. I was only carrying my prices one decimal place, 12.6, so I bought. But if you were waiting for $12.68, you would missed the boat and not made a 4.16% profit in 5 days! Just a little "tweek".

Good Luck,

Mike

Oh by the way, the fund allocation is just a "personal" choice at the time. Which ever funds are performing the best is what I will get into. Since we can gain more in the S and I, I'll probably go 50 % S and 50% I. But, the S fund has dropped the most so it stands to gain the most back. We'll see.

07-23-2004, 06:03 PM

What are your feelings on Krispy Kreme(KKD) Rolo? I'm thinking they may make a comeback. At least to about $25 a share.

tsptalk

07-23-2004, 06:20 PM

I won't sugar coat it, that stock has some holes in it.

Booo! :u bad joke

07-23-2004, 06:38 PM

LOL :P

fuzzduzz

07-24-2004, 12:28 AM

I like that tom :l

07-26-2004, 01:21 PM

We currently have a "buy" signal for the I fund at $12.96 per share. However, since the S fund is standing at $12.31 which is 37 cents below it's 63 day- moving-average, I'm going to make a move to 100% S fund this morning because it has the most to gain back.

Good luck.

Mike

07-26-2004, 04:02 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote:
By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!

Joel

Thanks for the Profunds info Joel! It's great having a fund that tracks the inverse of the major indices. Should make for bigger profits in my personal Scottrade account. I only which our TSP plan had inverse funds. :(

Mike

Rolo

07-26-2004, 04:23 PM

tsptalk wrote: I won't sugar coat it, that stock has some holes in it.

Booo! :u bad joke

hahaha! That is so cheesy, one cannot help but love it.

KKD's chart looks good over the last week...it had quite the insta-correction a couple of months ago like so many had. I remember that it was quite the rage last year. I'll have to look at the fundamentals to see if it is something I would want to buy for value. If its fundamentals are strong, the beaten-down price may make it an attractive buy. The thing is, many stocks will be like that and we want to pick only the best of them.

07-26-2004, 05:04 PM

KKD is up again today, :^

07-26-2004, 05:12 PM

By the way, the timing service that I am in has us in all these inverse funds (if you choose the most aggressive strategy) If you don't want to be aggressive, you stay on the sidelines. It has been the same since 4/30/04 (short or out, that is) Personally, there has been about a 10% swing that I really did not take advantage of. In other words, in the middle of May, I was down about 11-13%, short with margin. Now, I am up about 4-5%, short with margin. Fortunately, I stayed in the whole time. But I am wondering if there was any way to take advantage of those short spurts either way without driving myself crazy.

How do you feel about a strategy of getting in a fund when it is above it's 10 day average and out (or inverse) when it is below? I back tested this for the first 7 months of the year. I'm talking about personal funds here, where you can make the call at 2:59 pm and get that days price. Backtesting the Russell 2000, long only with this was about 20%, the Nasdaq 100 was about the same. If you got into the inverse it would even be better. I would simplfy it and only choose one, or maybe just two of the indexes to do this. Also, there would be no fees for this as long as I stayed within the Profunds, Rydex, or Potomac groups. It would be a little harder with the TSP stuff since the day lag, and I can't ever seem to look at the price before noon. I think I'm going to try this 10 day strategy, and I have dumped the timing service for now ($29.95/month)

Right now, all TSP stock funds are below the 10 day average, as well as the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S/P 500. That is why I'm shorting the indexes (with Margin, of course) I'm a little nervous about being in C and S right now. Later,

Joel

07-26-2004, 05:18 PM

As far as the minimal dollar amounts per Profund. I know some of them have large $ figures but that is bunk. I have gotten in with a lot less. Sometimes the Scottrade people call me and mention that to me, and most of the time they put it through. The Scottrade people tell me that it is up to the Profunds people at the other end, maybe on their mood for the day. For instance, right now, in my kids college funds, I have about $1500 invested each in the double inverse Russell 2000, double inverse Nasdaq 100, double inverse S/P 500. Check out the minimum invest $ and you will see that they are listed as a lot more. Just ignore the minimums and trade and see what happens. I hope that this helps.

Joel

07-26-2004, 05:31 PM

Didn't realize they had minimum requirements. Hmmmm, guess I'll take your advice and try anyway. Right now, if I had been 100% invested in only the S fund for the year, with my system I'd be up 15%. If I was invested in the 2X ultrafund, it might be 30%! And, if I had gotten into the 2X inverse ultrafund instead of having to go the G fund when I was "out", who knows what it would be up now. Very exciting. Hope they let me trade with my measly monies.

08-03-2004, 02:37 PM

This is written in mlk_man's account forum:

mlk_man wrote:
mlk_man wrote: Moving to 100% S fund this morning.OH well, at least I got the S fund at 12.18 with 50% of my funds. NOw let's get that price back up!!!
http://www.fedsmith.com (http://www.fedsmith.com/) just posted the fund returns for the period Jun 25th, 2004 to Aug 2nd, 2004. C fund is -2.26%, S fund is -4.72%, and I fund is -3.41%. If you had followed my system, your returns would be C fund +0.5%, S fund-0.95%, and I fund +1.16%.

I was able tosalvage my S fund by buying it at 12.18 with half my savings (took it out of C fund), thus bringing my S fund return for the same time frame to +.88%.

So you can still see that my system easily beats buy and hold strategies. Also remember that the S fund has a long way to come back up before I "sell" so I'm expecting even bigger gains when all is said and done. This includes the other two funds because if you had bought them, you'd still be hanging onto them. :^

08-03-2004, 04:42 PM

Really jumpy today.

Timer

08-03-2004, 05:54 PM

mlk_man wrote:
http://www.fedsmith.com (http://www.fedsmith.com/) just posted the fund returns for the period Jun 25th, 2004 to Aug 2nd, 2004. C fund is -2.26%, S fund is -4.72%, and I fund is -3.41%. If you had followed my system, your returns would be C fund +0.5%, S fund-0.95%, and I fund +1.16%.

I was able tosalvage my S fund by buying it at 12.18 with half my savings (took it out of C fund), thus bringing my S fund return for the same time frame to +.88%.

WTG Milk :^

Timer

08-03-2004, 05:59 PM

mlk_man wrote: Really jumpy today.Hey Milk, I'm 35C and 65S. What do you think about the S?

08-03-2004, 06:42 PM

I'm actually thinking of getting out of S for either Friday or Monday. Greenspan meets again Tuesday so probably get another rate hike then which isn't good for the S fund. Probably go either C or I. C most likely. Appears as though S maybe consiladating for a lower average price. We'll see tomorrow.

08-03-2004, 07:04 PM

I'm feeling another day late day rally if there are no terroist attacks again. :%

Timer

08-03-2004, 11:23 PM

mlk_man wrote: I'm actually thinking of getting out of S for either Friday or Monday. Greenspan meets again Tuesday so probably get another rate hike then which isn't good for the S fund. Probably go either C or I. C most likely. Appears as though S maybe consiladating for a lower average price. We'll see tomorrow.
Thanks m_m. I don't have a system like you but I've observed that when S takes off, I follows later. Can you comment on that? Maybe with your system, you don't pay attention to generalities so much.

08-04-2004, 01:29 PM

Timer wrote:
Thanks m_m. I don't have a system like you but I've observed that when S takes off, I follows later. Can you comment on that? Maybe with your system, you don't pay attention to generalities so much.

Actually you are correct, for this year anyway. Not sure about other years. 3 out of 4 times this year that I have gotten "buy" signals for the S fund, the I fund has followed within 5 days. :^

Also noticed that I can't spell anymore. I may be getting investor's brain-hemorrhage! :shock:

08-05-2004, 07:19 PM

mlk_man wrote: jgpalmerdds wrote:
By the way, Profunds Inc. has a lot of leveraged funds that follow averages like the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, S & P 500 and others. You can trade them through Scottrade online and pay NO FEES even if you only hold them for a day. I have been with Scottrade for over 2 years and they are great. Also, if you make a change before 3:00 pm on a day, you get that end of day's price! Consequently, Profunds even has Bear market inverse leveraged funds that trade the same way. So if you go into a long term bear market, you can make money. You could definately use your system, acheive nice returns and lessen your risk. Check out Profunds.com and Scottrade, a great combo!

Joel

Thanks for the Profunds info Joel! It's great having a fund that tracks the inverse of the major indices. Should make for bigger profits in my personal Scottrade account. I only which our TSP plan had inverse funds. :(

Mike

Hey Joel,

I've located a fund that inverses the S&P 500 and you only have to have $2500 to invest in it, $750 for an IRA. Unlike what Profund charges. Just in case Scottrade stops allowing you to invest smaller amounts. :D

08-05-2004, 07:22 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote: As far as the minimal dollar amounts per Profund. I know some of them have large $ figures but that is bunk. I have gotten in with a lot less. Sometimes the Scottrade people call me and mention that to me, and most of the time they put it through. The Scottrade people tell me that it is up to the Profunds people at the other end, maybe on their mood for the day. For instance, right now, in my kids college funds, I have about $1500 invested each in the double inverse Russell 2000, double inverse Nasdaq 100, double inverse S/P 500. Check out the minimum invest $ and you will see that they are listed as a lot more. Just ignore the minimums and trade and see what happens. I hope that this helps.

Joel

Hey Joel,

I've located a fund that inverses the S&P 500 and you only have to have $2500 to invest in it, $750 for an IRA. Unlike what Profund charges. Just in case Scottrade stops allowing you to invest smaller amounts. :DIt is DRCVX.

Good Luck,

M_M

08-06-2004, 03:12 AM

MLK,

I noticed that you indicated about getting out of the S fund early next week. Unless there is a dramatic change in the market going upward, we will take a loss on the "sell", true? Do we just wait this out and wait till it goes .2 above (buy price or 63 day price) I'm not sure. All that I know is I'm getting killed overall since I got in this time. Also, what about new money coming in on payday. Do you apply it to the S fund (if that is what you bought), etc if already invested in those funds? Please respond.

By the way, the 10 day average showed an uptrend, I swithced to "long" and got killed for a 7% loss in 5 days (with margin) I should of listened to the timing service! By the way, I'm some 18% down since Aprilin my Roth IRA, isn't that a great thing! I had good gains in the beginning of the year, started the timing service on a late "buy" (on the waydown) signal, changed to long in the middle of their sell signal and now have changed back. That equals to 18% loss since April! Isn't emotion beautiful. I'm as confused as ever. Dollar Cost Average vs. MLK formula Vs timingtrend service. I'm not sure which way to go?

Joel

08-06-2004, 01:28 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote: MLK,

I noticed that you indicated about getting out of the S fund early next week. Unless there is a dramatic change in the market going upward, we will take a loss on the "sell", true? Do we just wait this out and wait till it goes .2 above (buy price or 63 day price) I'm not sure. All that I know is I'm getting killed overall since I got in this time. Also, what about new money coming in on payday. Do you apply it to the S fund (if that is what you bought), etc if already invested in those funds? Please respond.

By the way, the 10 day average showed an uptrend, I swithced to "long" and got killed for a 7% loss in 5 days (with margin) I should of listened to the timing service! By the way, I'm some 18% down since Aprilin my Roth IRA, isn't that a great thing! I had good gains in the beginning of the year, started the timing service on a late "buy" (on the waydown) signal, changed to long in the middle of their sell signal and now have changed back. That equals to 18% loss since April! Isn't emotion beautiful. I'm as confused as ever. Dollar Cost Average vs. MLK formula Vs timingtrend service. I'm not sure which way to go?

JoelWrote this in another forum on here: Just a reminder, back on April 30th I got a "buy" signal for the S fund so I went 100% S at $12.78 per share. I didn't get a "sell" signal till June 25th. I "sold" my shares then at $13.07 for a 2.27% gain. Almost 2 months of sitting on my a** picking my nose! Sometimes it takes awhile, sometimes it doesn't. In March I bought and sold the S fund in 7 days, for a 4.35% gain!

Just hang tough folks...............:*

Eventually the market will be back up, hang tight. I'm sticking with the S fund till I make some money back, was just my emotions talking earlier. Had to take them in the alley and beat the crap out of em! ;)

I usually wait until 30 cents above the 63-day moving average, but the 63-day moving average for the S is currently $12.68. It was $12.88 before this current slide so I''m going to stay in until my moving-averages chart shows a down trend. Remember, during a prolonged up-trend, just stay in for the ride unless we get some little ups and downs along the way. That's where my "system" works best. I'll let you know when to get out.

As far as new monies coming in, I just keep all mine in the G fund and move it around when I get I "buy" signal. If you know when it is deposited, then I guess you could put it somewhere else depending on if we are going up or down.

What "timing service" are you speaking of? You're not following my system for your IRA?

By the way, since my current "buy" signal for the S, which I bought at $12.63, I'm "only" down -4.1%. That makes my gains for the year still +11% for the S and I still haven't "sold" my current shares yet.Know where buy and holders are at this year for the S? -2.55%!!

Stick with it, it'll be ahhhright...........:^I'm still banking I make "AT LEAST" 20 - 35% this year. :D

Oh and I've figured out that working with the inverse funds in Scottrade, I should be able to make 40 - 80% profits a year, if not more. :shock:

08-06-2004, 01:46 PM

By the way, not to confuse you anymore, but I'm gonna be "tweaking" my system a bit. During a down trending market, when the intermediate and long moving-averages are going down, I'm going to invert my "buy" and "sell" signals. I'll "buy" at 30 cents below the 63-day moving average and "sell" at 20 cents above instead of vice-versa. Only makes sense to me and having back-tested it, could of made a little more money. ;)

Rod

08-06-2004, 01:51 PM

mlk_man wrote: As far as new monies coming in, I just keep all mine in the G fund and move it around when I get I "buy" signal. If you know when it is deposited, then I guess you could put it somewhere else depending on if we are going up or down.

That's what I'm doing wrong. Thanx! I currently have mine in S hoping to "buy low"and have already lost about 60% of my payday contribution.

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

08-07-2004, 02:54 AM

As far as the private IRA money goes, I'm with a timing service, which out in the open, I'm not a loud to say. I've been threatened by them already before because they were "monitoring" this site. I went away with it for a week, using 10 day averages and got in "long" against their signal and lost 8% in 5 days (that would have been an 8% gain if I would of stayed put short. Fortunatly, I got back in short today and enjoyed an 4.8% turnaround, short (on margin). I'm fully invested in Russell 2000 short, on margin, right now. I've taken your advice and will probably be staying away from the S and P 500, sticking with the Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 because they are more volatile, and there is more chance for longs and shorts, and bigger gains. I've got an 18% loss to make up, and then some.

Tell me, how are you going to do your "system" with Scottrade and Profunds? Which funds are you going to invest in? I would test their "minimums" and as long as you have a $1000 or so, I think they will let you in. Later.

08-09-2004, 02:14 PM

I probablly won't start with the Profunds until next year. I have to save up some money to put in my account. I'm taking a real beating now because I'm invested in individual stocks and we all know how the market has been doing. :X

I will probably invest in the ultra small cap fund (UAPIX) when I get a "buy" signal and the inverse ultra small cap fund (UCPIX) when my "sell" signal comes around. :^

08-10-2004, 12:08 AM

That is exactly the approach I'm going to start taking. In fact, right now to simplify, I'm only into the Russell 2000 short. The S and P just doesn't move enough for me to say in it. I would heavily look into your system with the Nasdaq 100 as well, because it has very distinct ups and downs, and the return potential either wayis much greater. So tell me, have you thought about how your system would work with long's and shorts? Would you implement both? It is a lot more confusing when you have a choice of short vs. long as opposed to long vs. cash.

Joel

08-10-2004, 12:58 PM

I'd probably have to pay more attention to the moving averages to tell me when the market is trending up or down. It's trending down now so going short would be best. We'd still the dips or bumps depending on which way the market is going and my system would help to play these. Should be interesting. Good luck!

Anyone know what time Greenspan speaks today? I may make a move to the G or F fund depending on what happens today or tomorrow. I hate to the "hit", but might be better in the long run. I'll make it up later. This has been a strange time and no system is perfect. Sure which we had inverse funds in our TSP!!

Rolo

08-10-2004, 11:22 PM

Joel, mlk, are you long or short in anything right now or as you as reluctant as I? I dumped everything (except my long-term keepers,SIRI & XMSR) so I have cash.

08-11-2004, 01:07 AM

Rolo,

I'm Shorting the Russell 2000, on margin with my private IRA money, and I'm following MLK's formula with my TSP money. I was in the G fund (no short option) until I convinced myself to go with MLK (which I still Have confidence in) It is really weird, but one is short (IRA) and one is long (TSP) When the market goes down, I come out ahead though because I have 8 X more money in my private IRA right now, and I'm shorting it on margin. Like today, I took a 4.5% hit on my IRA account, but the overall short trend is up about 8% since April 30th. It is 3 1/2 months into this trend, and it is really tough to sit there when the market goes up (while being short), but they recommend staying put, which I didn't, and got burned. I went long on my own last week and missed an 8% (on margin) downswing (I lost 8% going long) That is what I am doing, trying to feel out a shorter term system in the TSP while sticking to a longer trend model in the IRA's. I tell you, if we hit a long bear or bull market, watch out with this trend timing. Had I been with them last year, long, I would have returned 100% or so on my money (that is with margin, of course). I also would make a killing in the bear (going short) I hope this helps.

Joel

08-11-2004, 12:59 PM

Rolo,

I'm not currently shorting anything, I'm waiting for my two stocks to come up before I dump them and start playing with the inverse funds. My stocks are currently NT and SWW. I really like SIRI for the next few months with football season coming up and they have the NFL rights. When do you think you would see the stock price go up if they get a large sells spike within the next month? After Q3 earnings report?

Also, even though I''ve "lost" roughly 4.28% since July 19th, but not really since I did buy 50% of my S shares at 12.18 on July 26th, I'm still up about 10% for the year. Which is better than most. I expect to have more of a profit when I finally "sell" my S shares. Need more days like Tues. :^

m_m

08-11-2004, 01:13 PM

Check out the top two headlines for NT though yahoo. :^

Rolo

08-11-2004, 07:15 PM

NT may be promising. Let's see what their earnings report shows Aug 19.

Oneproblem is that there are so many wireless providers that the competition is fierce. Some insider info: Nortel is seriously vying for the military's blessing for Voice-over-Internet Protocol (VoIP), which will eventually replace analog copper lines. (I am one of the guys saying, "Let'sditch this old junk already!") Cisco has a nice system, but they blew it and are retreating. Plus, they are expensive.

At a quick glance, SWW looks promising technically and fundamentally. I'm keeping my eye on both of these.

SIRI shocked me. It actually fell below my cost basis. :( I still hold-and-forget it and XMSR.

08-12-2004, 12:41 PM

Two more for you to keep an eye on that I just bought into for the long term. PNAMF, $1 per share, and PWRM, $2 per share. Both are fairly new companies. PNAMF is a gold mining company and PWRM is a biotech company. PWRM is trying to come up with an early detection diagnostic test for certain cancers and other diseases. Can you imagine if they succeed at this? I might actually go in for a colon cancer test! Take a little blood and presto! :^

08-12-2004, 06:49 PM

There is a God!!!!!!!!!!!! Check out PWRM. It's up 45% today!!! I just bought it yesterday. :shock:

Rod

08-12-2004, 08:42 PM

mlk_man wrote: There is a God!!!!!!!!!!!! Check out PWRM. It's up 45% today!!! I just bought it yesterday. :shock:

Silly rabbit!!!:POF COURSE GOD exists!!!:^

Rolo

08-12-2004, 09:25 PM

mlk_man wrote: There is a God!!!!!!!!!!!! Check out PWRM. It's up 45% today!!! I just bought it yesterday. :shock:
Sell it now!

heh

I said much the same thing about SIRI and "Oh, that's a long term holding" approach has cost me. I fear commitment now.

08-13-2004, 07:12 AM

Rolo wrote:
Sell it now!

heh

I said much the same thing about SIRI and "Oh, that's a long term holding" approach has cost me. I fear commitment now.
Funny, she told me the same thing just this past weekend!:oo

puertorico

08-13-2004, 02:50 PM

Mlk_man

Rod

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

Thanks guys I will be moving today the new money to G too.I was putting

all in C fund but most of the time losing half.Will do it right now...:^

Nice strategy to cut loses and play safeonnew money;)

Rod

08-13-2004, 02:55 PM

puertorico wrote: Mlk_man

Rod

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

Thanks guys I will be moving today the new money to G too.I was putting

all in C fund but most of the time losing half.Will do it right now...:^

Nice strategy to cut loses and play safeonnew money;)

Very good strategy. I don't know why I was blind to it before.:P

08-13-2004, 03:21 PM

Rod wrote: puertorico wrote: Mlk_man

Rod

From now on, I'm allocating my payday contributions to G, then moving in for the kill to "buy low".

:^

Thanks guys I will be moving today the new money to G too.I was putting

all in C fund but most of the time losing half.Will do it right now...:^

Nice strategy to cut loses and play safeonnew money;)

Very good strategy. I don't know why I was blind to it before.:P

Your welcome. That's what we're for, to help each other out. Now if only the market would help a little..............:oo

08-13-2004, 04:43 PM

MLK,

Are we still in C and S, with new money going into G? Fortunately, my "pile" in this account is not very big, so losses are in the hundreds, not thousands.

Joel

08-13-2004, 04:59 PM

I'm 100% S with new money going into G. I hope we get some upward bounce soon so I can get out till after the election. Next week may be good since retailers are about the onlyones reporting. Hopefully they will all have good reports like Walmart and Target. Keep your fingers crossed!! :^

Probably be best to be in C fund right now though........

Rod

08-13-2004, 08:46 PM

100% S? Wow, you are a risk taker.;) Hopefully it will pay off for you.

I'm currently 30%C 50%S 20%I

All new monies going into G.

tsptalk

08-14-2004, 03:02 AM

mlk_man wrote: I'm 100% S with new money going into G.
I'll probably join you oncewe get confirmation of a bottom - either higher low, the follow through day etc.

08-19-2004, 02:52 PM

I'll be keeping an eye on the marketstoday and tomorrowand if they appear to be going up by 11:30am Friday, I think I'll go 100% G for Monday since Tom said the week after options week is typically below average. We've had a nice little run this week so why risk losing it........Maybe we'll gain 2.59% by Friday so I won't lose anything when I cash in. :^

08-19-2004, 02:59 PM

mlk_man wrote: I'm 100% S with new money going into G. I hope we get some upward bounce soon so I can get out till after the election. Next week may be good since retailers are about the onlyones reporting. Hopefully they will all have good reports like Walmart and Target. Keep your fingers crossed!! :^

Probably be best to be in C fund right now though........
Did I actually say it might be best to be in the C now? :x

08-19-2004, 03:17 PM

How come you are not following your system of selling .3 over the 63 day moving average? It sounds to me like you are trying to get out and break even? By the way, I have new money in G, shouldn't we be looking for a "buy" with this at .2 below the 63 day moving average? Just trying to understand.

Joel

08-19-2004, 03:26 PM

Have to be willing to adjust sometimes my man. We are in a downtrending market at this time and I haven't used my "system" for times like this yet. You still have to pay attention to what "other" things are going. Breaking even is not too bad at this poiint, we went farther down than I had expected. Still up 12.46% for the year remember. Not many can say that.Just a termporary thing cause I think we will prosper as weget nearer the Republican convention.As Bush's ratings raise, should begood for the market. :cool:

08-20-2004, 01:24 PM

Well I've decided to stick with my guns and stay 100%S fund. The moving averages chart has hit a critical point. The fast moving average has moved back up to the intermediate moving average. This happened a couple of weeks ago but it was unable to break through and instead began to decline again. Hopefully this time it will bust through and we'll see more gains.

Keep hope alive!!! :D

Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

Rod

08-20-2004, 06:12 PM

mlk_man wrote: Well I've decided to stick with my guns and stay 100%S fund. The moving averages chart has hit a critical point. The fast moving average has moved back up to the intermediate moving average. This happened a couple of weeks ago but it was unable to break through and instead began to decline again. Hopefully this time it will bust through and we'll see more gains.

Keep hope alive!!! :D

Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

:^

Timer

08-21-2004, 05:55 AM

mlk_man wrote: Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

Way to go m_m!:!

When you say 'buy and holders', what distribution of investment are you assuming? 20% in each fund?

Pete1

08-21-2004, 06:00 PM

YTD 100% S fund buy and hold through 8/19 = -1.87%

YTD 100% S fund buy and hold through 8/20 =-.32%

YTD 20% in each fund buy and hold through 8/19 .70%

YTD 20% in each fund buy and hold through 8/20 1.09%

rokid

08-21-2004, 07:23 PM

Wow,3.95% is a pretty big discrepancy! Is it -5.82% or -1.87% this year for S Fund "buy and holders"?

08-21-2004, 10:34 PM

How did you figure -5.82%? Tom's numbers on his "results" page are different for YTD (it is much less of a negative number). Are you assuming that people have been dollar cost averaging each pay period, maybe?

P.S.-Are we putting "new money anywhere, with the rise in the averages?

Joel

08-23-2004, 01:20 PM

I always put all my new money in the G fund to be on the "safe" side and it's easier than having to worry about when it goes in and where I should put it.

Actually Pete1 was more correct than myself on buy and holders. I must of subtracted twice or something. I just go to the TSP home page and use their monthly return section for each fund then I figured out August myself. So, if only invested in S fund, buy and holders are +0.45 for the year. They are down -.40% for Aug. But, if you take the S share price to start the year, $12.48 and subtract the current price, $12.44, it is -.32% for the year like Pete said. Maybe TSP did something different, who knows.

I am presently up 12.65% for the year if only invested in the S fund. Don't feel like figuring the rest of em out. :P

Thanks for clearing that up for us Pete1.

08-23-2004, 01:23 PM

Pete1

08-23-2004, 02:31 PM

No problem. :)

08-23-2004, 08:47 PM

So are we "buying" yet with new money (the amount in the G fund) or are we waiting for another oppurtunity?

Joel

08-24-2004, 04:13 PM

That is actually just a personal call you'll have to make. I usually just leave mine in the G fund till I move my other money back in the G then move everything at once. Usually only in there a couple months at most so I really don't get too concerned about it.

09-01-2004, 01:38 PM

Okay all, "tweaking" my "system" again. ;)Sorry, lol. Not making a move right now, still 100% S, just wanted to explain what I'm gonna do when I do move so it can soak in.

I'm going to add "dollar cost averaging" to the mix. This is sort of what I did last time I had a "buy" signal. On July 16th I got a "buy" signal for the S at $12.65 so I went 50% S effective July 17th. (I was already 100% C at the time). As we know, prices continued to fall. On July 23rd I decided to go 100% S effective July 24th. This means I was able to "buy" S at $12.18 for a "dollar cost average" per share of $12.41. This afforded me the opportunity to make more money.

That being said, I'm actually up for the month instead of being down. ;)I'm still waiting for another "sell" signal. If I was doing 30-day moving averages instead of 60-day, I'd have a "sell" signal now at $12.48. But, my 60-day signal is $12.80 right now so I'm sticking to it. Will probably drop more in the coming days because we are losing those big days in June.

So my system now includes 4 basic strategies:

1) my origanal idea of buying at 20centsunder the 60-day moving average and selling at30 cents over(unless we are in a down-trending market, as we have been, then the concept is inverted. ( I may end up changing this to a % rather than an actual price at some point something like 2.5% instead of 30 cents, and 1.5% instead of 20cents)

2)Follow 5-day(fast), 21-day(intermediate), and 63-day(slow) moving averages. The fast moving average for the S fund was quickly heading back up to the slow average but has now leveled off a bit. Scares me a little bit.

3)"Dollar cost averaging". I explained this earlier and I believe it may afford me the opportunity to make even more money.

4) Average market sentiment. You have to pay attention to things happening around you. Though most of the time I don't listen. :PBut, ifsomeone blew up the RNC, would you stay in the market?

That's it. Just wanted to let whoever follows this know what I'm going to be doing so you can research it if you like.

Currently up 15.03% for the year. :^

09-01-2004, 01:47 PM

Not to be negative. But if something gets blown up I will go 100% C fund.

At tspmoney.com there is a lot of flashing red lights right now. What is your view on the job report?

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Medium Range
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Long Range
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09-01-2004, 01:57 PM

Lot''s of green in the short range. ;)I really don't think too much about it to be honest. I try to keep this as simple as possible and still make money. I may not time it right every day,, but eventuallly I will profit AND keep my sanity. You don't want me to end up like Rolo, I mean ROLO do ya?

Just kidding dude!! :P

09-01-2004, 02:04 PM

Milk,

I am taking the F fund trend and see if I can get some coinage on that for the week.

Was going to go I fund (based on week U.S. econonic data) but that is a day late and a dollar short. Nomar made a great move going 100% I fund based on the weak data. That is investing 101. Bad news in the U.S. weakens the U.S. dollar and the international index rally. But put that in our memory banks and job on that next time.

What is your outlook on Intel guidance , the weekly jobless claims and the August job report? I believe those are the drivers for the market for the rest of the month.

MT

09-01-2004, 02:16 PM

You may want to read this:

Under normal circumstances, Warren Buffett is a man you don't want to trade against. But now may be a rare instance to do so...
As of March, Warren Buffett had $18 billion in foreign currencies. He's worried about the U.S. dollar crashing under the weight of the twin deficits, like everyone else on the planet.
When it comes to buying businesses, my money is with Buffett. But when it comes to trading currencies, his record isn't so great.
In Fortune magazine, he admitted as much: "I started way back in 1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits-and, as you know, we've not only survived but also thrived. So on the trade front, score at least one "wolf" for me. Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again."
When it comes to trading currencies, Dennis Gartman and John Percival are two guys I listen to closely. Between them, they've been writing their investment letters on this topic for over 40 years. This week in The Gartman Letter, Dennis (unintentionally) put Buffett in his place...

WHY "A PROBLEM IS NOT A PROBLEM UNTIL IT IS A PROBLEM"
Says Gartman: "We have watched too many great minds in the field of investment worry about problems that never come to fruition, and in the process have not only wasted valuable "mental" capital, they have lost real in-the-pocket capital, and it is sad. We think it is wise to plan for future events; we think it is unwise to trade in anticipation of them."
Gartman sums it up by saying: "a problem is not a problem until it is a problem."
Buffett buys businesses that are working right now at cheap prices. He doesn't trade in anticipation of the future. But that seems to be what he's doing in the currency markets now.
Again, in the case of buying businesses cheap, I'll take Buffett. But in the case of speculating on currencies, I'll take Gartman, or John Percival...
THE DOLLAR BEAR MARKET IS OVER
The bear market in the dollar is over, John Percival declared in the latest issue of his letter "Currency Bulletin," out today.
Unlike Buffett, Percival is now bullish on the U.S. dollar, expecting it to rise versus the euro, and just about everything else.
Has he lost his mind?
Isn't he aware of our twin deficits... our sky-high budget deficit and trade deficit? And how it has to come home to roost some day, causing the dollar to crash in the process? Isn't he aware that the Buffett is expecting the dollar to fall?
Percival has been writing "Currency Bulletin" since 1982, successfully going against popular opinion time and again. So no, he hasn't lost his mind. He's simply calling it as he sees it. With his track record in currencies, as a general rule you don't want to be trading against this guy.
For the last two years, the dollar has been in a bear market, he explains. "All along, the underlying rationale for this bearishness has appeared to lie in America's current account deficit." Percival, since 1982, has never worried about a deficit in his trading. And he's been a winner.
Simply put (nice that Percival can talk about currencies simply), he says "the U.S. economy is okay for now; if we have a problem with that, we can take our money off the table."
Smart people like Warren Buffett, have worried aloud about a U.S. dollar crash, triggered by massive deficits in the U.S. But most of these smart people are not currency people.
Gartman and Percival are currency guys. And neither of them shares Buffett's view about the dollar now.
There are a lot of smart guys out there, who believe down in their toes that the dollar must crash, and it must happen sooner rather than later.
In this case, I'd rather be with Gartman and Percival. A dollar crash may happen some day. But not today.

09-01-2004, 03:34 PM

Milk,

I canx my transaction and will stay 100% G fund through the week. It looks like the hedge funds have sold bonds are in oil again. At least that is my take on what is going on.

The auto report, Intel and job report to me is not worth the risk reward to hop in the soup right now.

MT

09-02-2004, 04:37 PM

Okay, I've finally reached the point where I'm a little worried about the short term. Moving 100% G fund effective tomorrow morning.

Several reasons, all of which none have anything to do with my actual "system" but it does involve part 4 of my investment strategies, "surrounding circumstances".

Jobs report, impending hurricane, Intel, and three of Yukos's production facilities being frozen. Little too much for me. Hopefully we'll stay up today for a little more profit.

As I stated earlier, if I was using 30-day moving averages instead of 63-day moving averages, I'd have a "sell" signal right now. Guess we'll see if I stay with 63 or move to 30. :^

09-02-2004, 04:55 PM

I think I should of went F. Oh well..............

Timer

09-02-2004, 08:31 PM

mlk_man wrote: As I stated earlier, if I was using 30-day moving averages instead of 63-day moving averages, I'd have a "sell" signal right now. Guess we'll see if I stay with 63 or move to 30. :^

M_M always glad to hear what you have to say. Where do you track 63 day MA's? I look at tspmoney.com daily but they don't have MA's that far out.

Also, I've been meaning to ask this for a while, have you ever laid out your strategy in one statement? If you've done that on this board, I've missed it.

Thx!

Timer

09-02-2004, 08:38 PM

mlk_man wrote: He's worried about the U.S. dollar crashing under the weight of the twin deficits, like everyone else on the planet.
M_M or should I say m_m ;)....

Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

Also, doesn't gold usually get a bounce up when the USD drops? Thinking of buying some Gold :iif Warren is right.... but he's usually not right on trade. What's a mother to do! :(

Timer

09-02-2004, 08:40 PM

Timer wrote: Also, I've been meaning to ask this for a while, have you ever laid out your strategy in one statement? If you've done that on this board, I've missed it.

Thx!

Duh! It's in your 6:38 post. :dah:

tsptalk

09-02-2004, 09:53 PM

Timer wrote: Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex&nopu=xte6CKhUbf9%2Br8NpYcZNVdu28FI fJPuoy6XqHjWyEpqTkxNLCn2V4Q%3D%3D (http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex&nopu=xte6CKhUbf9%2Br8NpYcZNVdu28FI fJPuoy6XqHjWyEpqTkxNLCn2V4Q%3D%3D)

09-03-2004, 01:20 PM

Timer wrote: M_M or should I say m_m ;)....

Where can one see charts on how the USD is doing. Especially against other currencies. Also, if the USD does go down, that augers well for the I fund no?

Also, doesn't gold usually get a bounce up when the USD drops? Thinking of buying some Gold :iif Warren is right.... but he's usually not right on trade. What's a mother to do! :(

Yes you're right about Warren, his track record in currency hasn't always been great. A lot of people have been saying buy gold for some time now. And yes, a drop in the dollar is "usually" good for the I fund, but not always......jpemeralds mentioned that he thought the I fund typically "follows" what the C and S do within a few days, so went back to the first of the year and of the 4 times I've had "buy" signals for the I, 3 of them have followed "buy" signals for the S. Will be interesting to see if the I has a big up day within a few days since the C and S had a big day yesterday..

As far as my 63-day moving average, I just keep track of it myself.

Did you understand my "system". A few different strategies all mixed into one. Seems to be working though. I sold my S shares at the end of yesterday for a 2.42%gain , usually Iget 4-5%, and am now up 16.81% for the year. :!100% G for today. Got out a little early according to my "sell at 20 cents above the 60-moving average in a downtrending market" strategy, but not if I was using 30-day moving averages. I'll see how the next couple of days look and I may switch to 30-day. Still "tweaking" my "system". I just tought of checking 30-day moving averages because of our current volatility and it's too much of a pain to back test it, so we'll see. Volatility is good for my system. :^

Also, some people think the bear market in the dollar is over, be careful. I shy away from the I fund all to gather usually. Although I which I hadn't earlier this year. On May 7th I had a buy signal for the I fund and could of bought it for $12.46 and then got the sell signal on June 7th and could of sold it for $13.46. Could of had an 8% profit in a month!! Grrrrrrr, LOL.

Thanks for the website link Tom, didn't know of that one. :u

Good luck!!

And yes,please call me M_M, born and raised in Texas and you know what they say about Texas....guess I should change mlk_man to Mlk_Man!! Or maybe that's why I don't live there anymore, hmmmm..........:P

09-03-2004, 04:34 PM

Be careful with that F fund!!!!!!!!!! Here's a quote from cnnmoney:

Treasurys tumbled and the dollar rose after August employment data released Friday morning showed job creation just below analysts' forecasts and lower unemployment, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates.

Higher rates pressure bonds because they erode the fixed-value return on Treasurys, while a rate hike would support the dollar by making U.S. equities attractive to overseas investors.

09-03-2004, 04:35 PM

Timer wrote: What's a mother to do! :(
Don't have any myself, but my advice is give them to their father and go on vacation!!:u

09-03-2004, 07:18 PM

Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day. Hit right on. Love that!! I will nowsell at 2.5% above the 30-day moving average and buy at 1.5% below. (+\- .05)

09-04-2004, 06:07 PM

3 day moving average! Wow. That is pretty hands on. I use the 200 day moving average.

We are at a big gain or big loss level here. As you can see it does not hang around the 200 day very long. I am hoping we test the June highs.

Should be a very interesting short week next week. Good luck TSPers.

Good story about the F fund. That baby feel hard for a fund that moves like a rock.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=m200&a=

09-04-2004, 08:58 PM

mlk_man wrote: Looks like I'll be using 3-day moving averages for my signal now instead of 63-day. Hit right on. Love that!! I will nowsell at 2.5% above the 30-day moving average and buy at 1.5% below. (+- .05)Oops, I meant 30-day :^

09-07-2004, 09:06 PM

So I should be selling S and C and into G right now? Is that right, cause I am still in C and S right now?

Joel

09-08-2004, 01:35 PM

Sorry Joel, I was out yesterday. Yes, I am currentlly 100% G fund. If you're still in, I wouldn't sweat it. Probably still go up a bit. I forgot to dollar cost average when I sold this time...................

I'm looking for at least one more big drop in prices before the year's out so I get another good gainer and pass my goal of >20% gains for the year. :^

09-08-2004, 03:13 PM

So, are we going on the 30 day average and not the 63? Then when should I get out according to the "system".

Joel

09-08-2004, 03:20 PM

Joel,

In my opinion taking Milk's advice of buying on the next big down day will be a big mistake. The next big down day I will be bailing.

Anyone else have thoughts on this issue???

I believe there will be a rally this afternoon. Right now everyone is afraid of pulling the trigger in case Mr Greenspan tries to harpoon Bush II like he did Bush I.

Good luck!

09-08-2004, 03:26 PM

HEY MT, you're getting old dude. Yada, yada, yada. Proof is in the pudding! From what I've seen of your comments, you've been hiding in G fund almost all year. Make any money?

09-08-2004, 03:33 PM

Milk,

Did not make much, but on the other hand I did not lose anything. If we could short our TSP funds I would of been up a ton. Going long this market is not wise. Going ahead and buy into the next down day. I said Friday was going to be a bad day starting 27 Augand there would be a RNC rally this week. You went into G fund on a market sell off day (friday) and missed the nice up day yesterday. Who is ahead of who????

I may be yada yada to you but hopefully to others I am coming in loud and clear. Get the heck out of the way on the next big down day and do not buy into it.

Anyone agree with me (anyone on my side here :shock:)??? Hiding out in G fund is not bad when the market is going down...not up.

NEW YORK - Wall Street professionals know to keep their expectations in check in September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. As summertime draws to a close, money managers are getting back to business, cleaning house, and often sending the market[/b] lower in the process.

September has opened strong eight of the last nine years, but it's ended with a knockout punch for stocks for the lastsix years, because institutional traders are making end-of-the-quarter portfolio changes.

MT

09-08-2004, 03:35 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote: So, are we going on the 30 day average and not the 63? Then when should I get out according to the "system".

Joel

Yes Joel, I switched to the 30-day average. It typically has been pretty close to the 63-day average all year since we've sort of been going sideways. But now there is a pretty large disparity. I think it will enable us to move a bit quicker on buy and sell indicators. And have more "buy" opportunites. We'll see. I'm still tracking both.

Currently the 30-day moving average is at $12.32 and the 63-day is $12.59 for the S fund.

As I said earlier, I'm out now, but things may still go up a little bit. And no MT, I don't buy on "down days". I buy when the market drops far enough. Pay attention to fewer "real" things and not as many "fantasy" things. How's the meds going? They helping? :u

09-08-2004, 03:46 PM

mlk_man wrote:
Sorry Joel, I was out yesterday. Yes, I am currentlly 100% G fund. If you're still in, I wouldn't sweat it. Probably still go up a bit. I forgot to dollar cost average when I sold this time...................

I'm looking for at least one more big drop in prices before the year's out so I get another good gainer and pass my goal of >20% gains for the year. :^

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

09-08-2004, 03:46 PM

MarketTimer wrote: Milk,

Did not make much, but on the other hand I did not lose anything. If we could short our TSP funds I would of been up a ton. Going long this market is not wise. Going ahead and buy into the next down day. I said Friday was going to be a bad day starting 27 Augand there would be a RNC rally this week. You went into G fund on a market sell off day (friday) and missed the nice up day yesterday. Who is ahead of who????

I may be yada yada to you but hopefully to others I am coming in loud and clear. Get the heck out of the way on the next big down day and do not buy into it.

Anyone agree with me (anyone on my side here :shock:)??? Hiding out in G fund is not bad when the market is going down...not up.

NEW YORK - Wall Street professionals know to keep their expectations in check in September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. As summertime draws to a close, money managers are getting back to business, cleaning house, and often sending the market[/b] lower in the process.

September has opened strong eight of the last nine years, but it's ended with a knockout punch for stocks for the lastsix years, because institutional traders are making end-of-the-quarter portfolio changes.

MT

Get your head out my brother....I've seen you bash me, Tom, Moe, Larry and Curly over our decisions, but you know what. I happen to like the decisions I've made and have documented them. You seem to keep changing your story. You said the market was gonna drop all week long last week. When it "finallly" does, you say "told ya so".

LOL, are you a meteorologist? It's gonna rain, sometime............

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

BTW, by being in last week, and supposedly you weren't, I gained 1.4% percent.

I'll leave you with one comment then you go on "ignore" cause I think all you do is put fear into people and your not gonna make money by sitting in G all the time. And let me spell this out for ya:

U

P

16.81%

FOR

THE

YEAR!!!!!!!!!!

And not done yet..............

Bye MT, take a vacation..........

09-08-2004, 03:50 PM

09-08-2004, 03:52 PM

Milk,

Last week, S&P 500 rebalance on Tuesday (index funds had to buy stock) and a rumour rally on Thursday of the leaked "gang buster job report" and we caught Osama at 2pm. Oh yeah, Intel moved their earnings guidance from Thursday at 1300 until after the close. Hmmm???

Ignore me if you want. That is your lose. With the calls you make I think your up 16.81% YTDis a dream not a reality. Going to G fund last Friday was a prime example.

MT

P.S. Just let me know when you are going out of G so I can go to G.

09-08-2004, 03:54 PM

mlk_man wrote:

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

GET WITH THE PROGRAM DUDE. i SOLD MY SHARES ON THURSDAY!!!!!!!!!! AT $12.71 PER SHARE. NOT FRIDAY AT $12.65 PER SHARE!!! GOOD GOD MAN IF THIS IS SO BAD, THEN LEAD US DEAR MOSESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

09-08-2004, 03:55 PM

Milk,

Read what you write. I believe that is the problem.

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

That means you switched to G fund on Friday.

09-08-2004, 04:03 PM

[quote]:):):) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff"

09-08-2004, 04:07 PM

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

Great advice selling on the huge down day last Friday and sitting in G fund now. In my opinion you are going to miss a 5-15% rally from now to the end of the month. I am going to sell at the top and get back in "on the one more big drop in prices".

You can get personal if you want in your comments. But in my opinion you are the one that needs to be on meds. Risk/reward. You will be missing the best rally of the year. You should restate your investment plan by saying "I sell into the big drop in prices."

So far since I have been on this board I am two for two. Down day last Friday and a rally this week. I will continue to make great calls to if anyone wants to listen they can make some dough too.

Good luck!

MT

And I think that anyone else who actually takes the time to read your comments knows that you are full of horse hockey. Just my humble opinion...........:^

You seem to tailor your comments and others to meet your own needs. I forgive you though, some people just aren't happy unless they are talking.

BTW, you're saying "rally" now? I thought last week you were very bearish for the remainder of the year?

Hey Tom, can someone "bar" someone else from making comments in their "member allocation talk" forum? LOL Yahoo has an "ignore" button...............

Quotes from MT:

"Hate to be a flip flopper but I am going 100% at the Monday closing price. There is just a cloud starting Tuesday and I want to be in my hole to wait and see if I can peek my head up and start to nibble again. I really want to bank my gains from 13 Aug. With the news the Fed is going to raise rates again no matter what oil or inflation does in September is not factor in yet to the market."

Said this on a Sunday and S fund went up from $12.49 on Monday to $12.71 on Thursday when I went 100% G fund. Does his statement say anything about waiting till Friday to get out? Hmmmmm

Another quote for Tues Aug 31th:

"I feel very good about going 100% G Fund at this point. This feels like the last seven times the market turned up...we went lower."

This sound like a man who is currently "bullish"?

And as far as calling this a rally this week, ummm, haven't we been rallying for about 2-3 weeks now?

09-08-2004, 04:10 PM

MarketTimer wrote: Milk,

Last week, S&P 500 rebalance on Tuesday (index funds had to buy stock) and a rumour rally on Thursday of the leaked "gang buster job report" and we caught Osama at 2pm. Oh yeah, Intel moved their earnings guidance from Thursday at 1300 until after the close. Hmmm???

Ignore me if you want. That is your lose. With the calls you make I think your up 16.81% YTDis a dream not a reality. Going to G fund last Friday was a prime example.

MT

P.S. Just let me know when you are going out of G so I can go to G.

I could of got back in on Tuesday at Friday's prices if I had wanted to. But I'm not a daily timer such as yourself oh great ZEN master!!

09-08-2004, 04:14 PM

Milk,

Heart rate getting pumping??? Hey buddy I do not want to **** you off.

I wish you luck in the G fund.

I am trying to listen to Greenspan and want to pop my eardrums out. I think he is saying good things.

I will not question your methods. Last week was a crazy week. I think I called it X Files stuff.

I hope you have a great week and do not ignore me.

Just be careful getting back in the indexes at this time of the year. It may be an election year but mutual funds want to take losses to offset their gains and get the crappy stocks off their list of holdings. Happens every year.

Good luck!
MT

09-08-2004, 04:14 PM

MarketTimer wrote: Milk,

Read what you write. I believe that is the problem.

I was in S fund all last week until Friday when I was 100% G fund and didn't take the hit others did. But, you say I'm wrong. Okay, hope I'm wrong a whole lot more.

That means you switched to G fund on Friday.

Perhaps you should read others comments. Or better yet, shut up and listennn. This from my account forum. Once again, making comments so suit your own needs. Got a new nic for ya, "flip-flopper"

Kissssss, luv ya man. Now go away...............

Posted: Thu Sep 2nd, 2004 11:23 am

Edit (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/edit_post.php?id=4516)

Quote (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?post_id=4516&quote=1)

Reply (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?topic_id=277)

Going 100% G fund this morning to be effective Friday morning.

09-08-2004, 04:21 PM

MarketTimer wrote: Milk,

Heart rate getting pumping??? Hey buddy I do not want to **** you off.

I wish you luck in the G fund.

I am trying to listen to Greenspan and want to pop my eardrums out. I think he is saying good things.

I will not question your methods. Last week was a crazy week. I think I called it X Files stuff.

I hope you have a great week and do not ignore me.

Just be careful getting back in the indexes at this time of the year. It may be an election year but mutual funds want to take losses to offset their gains and get the crappy stocks off their list of holdings. Happens every year.

Good luck!
MTOnce again, mr. flip-flopper!! So you advising people to jump in or stay out? You keep switching!!!!!!!And no, my heart-rate is not pumping, at least not because of you. I just hate seeing someone like you come in here and try skeer the crap out of people then say" oh I expect a big rally for the rest of the year". Then you say" be careful getting back in" Are you bi-polar? Would make a lot of sense............I''m out, enuff time has been wasted on you. You owe me.................Oh by the way, my returns are documented, yours? Oh that's right, you've been G all year till now because the market looks ripe for a rally......... LOL

09-08-2004, 04:25 PM

I just realized something, hey market_timer, you don't work for tsp.gov do ya?

09-08-2004, 04:35 PM

Thursday and Friday last week I was in the hospital so it was hard to keep you appraised of my outlook, I aplogize. All I know is I said was last Friday was going to be a down day and a RNC bouncerally this week that I am not sure how far will go. I believe there will be a rally this afternoon after Greenspan is finished and then a sell off before the end of this month. I believe we see a 5-15% bounce from the August lows at best.

I believe all I heard was "why be afraid of the job report?", "the job report will not move the market " and that is good for international markets". When I got out on 30 Aug, Intel was scheduled to provide earningsguidanceat 1300 on 2 Sep (not after the market close on 2 Sep). If I would of known that I would of hung around until 1 Sep like I stated prior to my switch based on the news that was public. Last week we caught Osama and we were getting a gang buster job report Friday morning. It is hard to make investment decisions on that kind of data.

Not sure how much I can stick my neck out for ya but there is some real calls above. Not I am up 16.8 YTD and I am up nearly 20% for the year.

My advice is to ride this little rally but be prepared to blast out on short notice.

Good luck!

MT

This is a bullish short term chart now. 30 Aug we could of turned down or turned up. I believe if it was not for the S&P 500 rebalance and rumour rally on Thursday it would of been a tough weak. Risk/reward if you read candlesticks. We have a little rally here. HEY I AM BULLISH FOR A CHANGE.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=3m&q=c&l=on&z=m&a=v&p=s

09-08-2004, 04:44 PM

Ummmm, why ride this "little rally" and not the previous 3 that we have already had this year and that I did "ride"?

You can find my spreadsheet in my account. Thank you very much. And anyone who actually takes the time to listen to what others are saying, knows I"m pretty good at stating my buys and sells.

09-08-2004, 04:46 PM

Milk,

No. I left fed service in 1998. Right now I am actuary for an insurance company but looking for ajob in another area.

I do like the upgrades the tsp.gov have implemented with the new service contract.

Are you AD? You are right to the point kind of person.

MT

mlk_man wrote:
I just realized something, hey market_timer, you don't work for tsp.gov do ya?

09-08-2004, 04:52 PM

This little rally Pres Bush is in front of the polls. He was trailing the other three rallies. Senator Kerry is fading from site and that will move the markets. Changing the div/cap taxes from 15% to 39.6% will lead to another 1987 crash (remember when we could not write off our credit card, car loan interest off our taxes?).

We also are above the 200 DMA that will intice the momentum investors to hop above for the ride. Also the shorts are on the side lines now and may be forced to go long to not take advantage of forward market gains. This rally has a late May 2004 feel to it. We also got a bullish candlestick signal working in our favor.

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^DJI&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=m200&a=

09-08-2004, 04:55 PM

Lots of typos :shock:on my last post. 0600 here and got to get to work or hit massive traffic.

Have a great day all!

MT

09-08-2004, 05:11 PM

Oops, well that didn't post like I wanted..............

Timer

09-08-2004, 09:03 PM

mlk_man wrote:Are you bi-polar?
M_M You say that like it's a bad thing.

You two are too entertaining to miss!

Rod

09-09-2004, 08:27 AM

Hey MM, when do you plan to be invested?

Are you waiting on some lows?

09-09-2004, 12:20 PM

Hey Rod,

I went 50/50 I and S last Friday. I was hoping the Beige Book was going to back up what Mr Greenspan testified about that morning. Who to believe? Greenspan or the report that is promulgated from his office? Mr Greenspan says traction the Beige Book says slippage.

This morning I purchase 10K QQQs, 10K DIAMONDS and 10K SPIDERS EFTS. I believe the situation in Indonesia is a buying opportunity. I still believe we have a little rally prior to the end of the month sell off by mutual funds to clean up their annual reports. By the volumes the big guys have done nothing so far.

Have a great day!

MT

Rod

09-09-2004, 12:33 PM

Thanx MT. I may wait until next week to get invested. Or better yet, wait until Oct 1.

09-09-2004, 12:52 PM

1 Oct will be the day the mutual funds buy back the stocks they dump this month. Happens every year.

Week after triple witching the DOW is down 90% of the time this month, hint, hint!

Have a great day!

MT

09-09-2004, 12:54 PM

Rod wrote: Hey MM, when do you plan to be invested?

Are you waiting on some lows?

Yepper, I'm 100% G right now. Next week may be good to get back in. Once again, I'll post this little tidbit for MT's sake. But don't listen to me, listen to him. He's the man.......... He's made a lot of money since Friday being invested!!!!!!!!! :P

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040825/markets_stocks_conventions_1.html

Note the last statement in the article........W E E K N E S S MT!!! LOL

09-09-2004, 12:56 PM

Timer wrote: mlk_man wrote:Are you bi-polar?
M_M You say that like it's a bad thing.

You two are too entertaining to miss!
Speaking of which, where's Rolo? :D

09-09-2004, 01:01 PM

The week after triple witching is the last week of the month...this is the week that the mutual funds normally clean the dogs out their portfolios.

Milk, good call on going to G last Thursday. I should of went G Fund this Tuesday but got greedy. Oh well, down 3% is a hit but I will not stay in and take a larger hit and wait.

They RNC bounce needs viagria because it has gone limp on us :P. If you look back through history most of the election year up years come two months prior to the election. This may be a sign of a Kerry whitehouse. If that is the case 100% G fund for a long long time.

OK Milk, stop rubbing it in. Blame Tom :^.

MT

09-09-2004, 01:07 PM

MarketTimer wrote:
OK Milk, stop rubbing it in. Blame Tom :^.

MT

That damn Tom.................. :x

What ever happened to the Fro? :dude:

09-09-2004, 01:13 PM

Yeah that darn Tom and his election year stats for the month of September being a good month to be long vice the historical average of this as the worse month of all for the U.S. markets. Darn him!

:D

Timer

09-09-2004, 06:45 PM

mlk_man wrote: Timer wrote: mlk_man wrote:Are you bi-polar?
M_M You say that like it's a bad thing.

You two are too entertaining to miss!
Speaking of which, where's Rolo? :D
I miss Rolo.

Roooooloooooo wheeeere aaaaaare youuuuuu?

09-09-2004, 07:03 PM

Here Rolo, come boy!!!!!!!!!! Got a stock pick for ya fella........... :l

09-09-2004, 07:04 PM

Wow, 323 posts!!! It's all MT's fault......................:shock:

09-10-2004, 12:28 AM

I sold my 50% S fund as of end of today, for a 2.38% gain. I dollar cost averaged some $ at a higher share price, prior to understanding that money goes into the G fund. Thanks MLK. I'm still holding onto my C fund (I'm still 50% C) until it hits .3 (+-.05) above 30 day average, right?

I'll track the averages, just please give me notice for the next "buy". Thanks

Joel

09-10-2004, 12:36 AM

By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

tsptalk

09-10-2004, 05:13 AM

MarketTimer wrote: Yeah that darn Tom and his election year stats for the month of September being a good month to be long vice the historical average of this as the worse month of all for the U.S. markets. Darn him!

:D

OK, I'll bite. I assume that is sarcasm as Sepember is up 1.3% so far.

Darn Tom

09-10-2004, 02:08 PM

jgpalmerdds wrote: By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

Yepper Joel, you're right on. +/- .05. I typically get around a 4% return on each sell, but the market dropped a lot farther than I anticipated this time around. But hey, I'm happy with a 2.24% return in a little over a month's time.

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

Typically, the market moves about 6-7% from it's low to it's high during one of these "dips". I try to get at least 4-5% of that and still avoid a lot of risk. Right now the S fund is up 7.5% from it's low of $11.87. One of the reasons i'm looking for another pull back unless we are indeed entering a bull market finally.

Like I said before, give me 4-5% four or five times a year and I'm happy. Especially in a bear market! My goal is still to average 20% every year. Right on track!

Currently my gains on 5 transactions this year are: 4.27%, 4.16%, 4.35%, 2.27%, and 2.42%. I also had one "loss" of .77% only because I "sold" my 50% C on July 23rd to go 100% S. I think some people overlook this when they change their allocations. You have to take into account that when you switch between funds, you're actually "selling" one fund to "purchase" another. Just thought I'd let everyone know because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible on my return %'s. Not trying to BS anyone. Say what MT? Just kidding...........:P

Your welcome for the help Joel. Let's hope it continues. :^

Yea as I walk through the valley of stocks, I shall fear no market......... :!:!

09-10-2004, 04:29 PM

Just sold rest of C fund effective the end of today. Now 100% G. I'll keep tracking the averages and lets keep the communication up! Thanks

Joel

09-11-2004, 04:06 PM

I have an update. For some reason, the tsp.gov website did not take my first transaction of selling the S fund a few days ago. I was fortunate to benefit from this mistake as the stock price rose higher the next couple of days. I'm now 100% G effective the end of yesterday (I got my confirm e-mail)

My first MLK guided transaction was: S fund +2.94%, C fund +2.76%. This was buying on July 22nd and selling September 10th. Thanks MLK! I noticed the averages are way over the 30 day- avearage. What happens if they continue to go up, up, up. How do we handle this? We certainly don't want to buy "high" and have it drop, but we don't want to miss a 10-20% uptrend either. What is your take on that and what have you done in the past.

By the way, my private IRA money, going short with "you know who", is down 14% (with margin) since April 30th. I have lost over 20% of my principle with them since March, ouch! I don't want to sell for a loss, so right now it is on "paper".

Joel

09-11-2004, 04:39 PM

mlk_man wrote: jgpalmerdds wrote: By the way, the .3 above 30 day average for the C fund is: 11.89 and the fund is at 11.85 right now. Is this what you mean by the within +- .05 range for buying/selling? In other words, should I of sold and not split hairs on the price. Right now, at 11.85, it puts me up 2.24% since the 50% C buy. Thanks

Joel

Yepper Joel, you're right on. +/- .05. I typically get around a 4% return on each sell, but the market dropped a lot farther than I anticipated this time around. But hey, I'm happy with a 2.24% return in a little over a month's time.

I'm currentlly 100% G fund and I suggest the same for everyone else. The market may go up a bit more, but it may drop big time too. If it goes up, either won't go up much before we see a pullback, or it'll continue to uptrend and we can jump back in if that happens. Next week will tell the story. Our fast and intermediate moving averages continue to rise, so we'll see if that continues or not. I've only been keeping moving averages since June 18th, so it's tough to call just yet.

Typically, the market moves about 6-7% from it's low to it's high during one of these "dips". I try to get at least 4-5% of that and still avoid a lot of risk. Right now the S fund is up 7.5% from it's low of $11.87. One of the reasons i'm looking for another pull back unless we are indeed entering a bull market finally.

Like I said before, give me 4-5% four or five times a year and I'm happy. Especially in a bear market! My goal is still to average 20% every year. Right on track!

Currently my gains on 5 transactions this year are: 4.27%, 4.16%, 4.35%, 2.27%, and 2.42%. I also had one "loss" of .77% only because I "sold" my 50% C on July 23rd to go 100% S. I think some people overlook this when they change their allocations. You have to take into account that when you switch between funds, you're actually "selling" one fund to "purchase" another. Just thought I'd let everyone know because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible on my return %'s. Not trying