View Full Version : Rolo's Account Talk
Greets.
I am relatively new to investing (one year) and hope I still have some of that beginner's luck.
I think a quote from Mark Twain explainsbeginner's luck, "I never let education get in the way of my learning." Having too much information, we can think ourselves out of a good decision: "Always go with your first impression." I know some of my best stock and fund moves were made on strong, unsubstantiated decisions and some of my worst ones were well informed, thought-out decisions. Perhaps I can offer a fresh perspective.
Being a beginner, I am also ignorant. The Market is a bigworld and I have not been exploring long. I want to continue to pick it apart and master it. To that end, I like animated discussions and sharing of facts and observations.
Prophetic genius or babbling idiot? I do not know, but I do know that I have had my moments at being both. Feel free to let me know when my Idiocy Index is rather high. ;)
See the Rolo's Account (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/273.html) topic for transactions and figures.
I am going to try my hand at technical analysis since I may be onto something with the Japanese candlesticks and trendlines.
Start of this discussion here: Trendlines (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum22/270.html)
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Attached is $SPX as of today. I am not sure what these lines are saying, but it sure looks important.
The rising relative strength leaves me bullish.
The MACD fighting convergence leaves me bullish. The blue line crossing below zero leaves me thinking that this will be a short run-up.
Here is DWCP (S Fund) as of today. A nice Rising Three Methods pattern. Buyers clearly dominated Monday in spite of a nice upswing and an overbought market. Buyers still held against the sellers Tuesday. Buyers threw sellers a bone Wednesday. Buyers kept the dominating sellers in check Thursday, keeping everything withing Monday's (the buyer's) trading range.
I think these past three days was the pullback, a speedbump in a recovering rally in a bull market. I stayed 100% in stocks because I did not want to attempt to time such a short range, in time and in price. I need to master timing the larger swings first, then I may try for the small dips.
My instincts tell me that we are in for a mostly-horizontal-yet-rising-steadily market for a while and this pattern seems to fit the transition to that.
Question from young grasshopper: :dah: <-- (Sensei approximation smiley)
Overbought means we are running out of buyers. Why are we running out of buyers?
If no one is interested in buying because of valuations, thensellers will lower prices, the market will fall. If no one is interested in buying because of supply and demand--as in buyers and sellers are holders and they are both happy where they are--then prices will go up, for there is a lack of supply for those who still wish to buy.
If buyers and sellers alike are holders, then most everyone must be bullish, regardless of what the sentiment index/poll/whatever says. I do not believe in an "undecided". If you are holding, then you are bullish, otherwise you would not be holding. If you are not holding, then you are not bullish and therefore you must be bearish, waiting for a buy point, at which time you will be holding and therefore bullish. Money = mouth, mouth = blaah-blaah-blaah. :cool:
Simplified, can an overbought condition be caused buy one of two things: either lack ofsupply or a lack of demand?
A lack of supplycreatesprice-pressure. Buyers pressure sellers to sell with higher bids. The more steadfast the sellers, the more pressure from buyers is required and up goes the price.
What is required to break resistance? Pressure! I think this may explain why support lines and resistance lines are often the same line.
If I understand this correctly, then this may describe the market's condition today, overcoming resistance with pressure, hence, an overbought condition (in this circumstance) is necessary and desirable.
This is what I have been thinking since last week. I think abstractly, so it is impossible for me to articulate my thoughts at first; I have to take time to figure out how to convert them into language.
So, yes, that was all a question. Am I understanding "market forces" correctly so far?
Here is a R3M pattern from last year. You can see it got ugly for a month afterwards. There are some differences between then and now but I cannot explain them.
$SPX from 2001. I think this represents today pretty closely. I just looked at a three year chart and picked a spot that looked like today; this is where I zoomed in first.
heh, First, the "Wow" in there is at the five consecutive identical days. I would have interpreted that as support for certain. Boy am I glad I wasn't in the market yet then.
On the R3M pattern, blend day 2 and day 3 together and you will have a nearly identical representation of this week. I believe Monday will look like day 6, the second long white day, and Tuesday will have a gap up. I do not expect much after Tuesday, maybe a small sag. At the moment, this chart is pretty much what I have in mind for the nextfew weeks.
I am standing pat at 30C/70S, going on the premise that we are now at the resistance-turned-support line.
I wish I had more C and I will adjust soon.The FROis telling me I should do that for Monday close. Thoughts, Frizz?
Frizz B.
06-11-2004, 11:23 PM
I am really glad I only see #'s, WHEW. I have re-calculated my FRO, I took the highs and lows of the market and threw 2 of the highs and 2 fo the lows, but I used the numbers that were next in line, then divided by the amt. of numbers I used, . The F diff is between 314 and 266, we just hit the 315 and the way my FRO works we should go down some more, and yes I should of used my first reaction and moved to the G fund when I was going to, but I listened to the expert (Rolo never told me he was only doing this for a year, though he was an expert), and the S fund lost 2 pts. Now you owe me 2 dinners. :dude:
As for the S to C differential, high is 125, low is 86, right now we are at 90. Unless the market has changed since last June, the FRO tells me if you were to play the stocks, it would be in the S fund, but I am still playing the G fund for now. I have been doing some #'s for the G to F fund. In my range it is 9.86 to 9.94, small range, so if the F fund gets below 9.87, right now at 9.89, if I am still in the G fund, I will transfer to the F fund until it goes past 9.91. The I fund is way up there again. My FRO tells me 41 to 14. We are at 47, so the I fund is way to high. But again I am in the G, so doesn't matter to me right now.
Well Rolo, now you have my thoughts. Happy Hunting :dude:
Frizz B. wrote: I am really glad I only see #'s, WHEW.
LOL!
Frizz B. wrote: I have re-calculated my FRO, I took the highs and lows of the market and threw 2 of the highs and 2 fo the lows, but I used the numbers that were next in line, then divided by the amt. of numbers I used, . The F diff is between 314 and 266, we just hit the 315 and the way my FRO works we should go down some more
Yes,315 and is now 299. Myrange is currently 285-311. I am counting on it going above 309 one more time.
Frizz B. wrote: and yes I should of used my first reaction and moved to the G fund when I was going to, but I listened to the expert (Rolo never told me he was only doing this for a year, though he was an expert), and the S fund lost 2 pts. Now you owe me 2 dinners. :dude:
hehe, Hey, I just said what I was doing and why.Now I am going to laugh very hard :uif S closes at $13.07(:}1.5%)or more on Monday, then you will owe me dinner. If not, then I suppose I will have these words as a snack. :x
Now I know how the golden calf felt. :dude: As much as I flap my trap on here, I am sure my limited experience is out in the open. :P It is my disclaimer, my "out", my "get out of jail free card"for when I am totally wrong and make a brass ass of myself. :D
Does this mean the honeymoon is over?:? rofl
Frizz B. wrote: As for the S to C differential, high is 125, low is 86, right now we are at 90. Unless the market has changed since last June, the FRO tells me if you were to play the stocks, it would be in the S fund, but I am still playing the G fund for now.
Wouldn't that mean C is the way to go since Sδ is farther from zero-base than Cδ is? (I am thinking for only the next few weeks, not overall, and if you wanted to stay in stocks.)
Frizz B.
06-12-2004, 01:04 AM
No, the lower the number, the more I would play the S fund. Last June, the C, S, and I funds were almost equal, since then the S and the I has taken off from the C. So when the Differential is low, play the S, and if the numbers are high, I might think of the C. The only problem has been, the C fund catches up on the S in a losing market. Until the market changes, where the C fund starts to outgain the S in the upswing, I do not play the C fund. Will do some recalculations to see what has happened to the funds in the last 2 months. Later on this weekend I will get to it.
Soooooo, Frizz, when ya comin' to Florida? heh (I can use that egg-smiley now)
Perhaps I should follow the FRO as originally designed before I rebel against it. :D
I was really looking forward to a long white day today. :(
I will do the shares/account/$100K thing soon. I have to keep up on it, trying to figure out when I made a transfer and at what price is a PITA and I cannot always figure it out if I forget to follow up on one; TSP's lack of record-keeping on their site blows. Quarterly statements? Paper? Snail mail? Whaa? Get with the 21st century people! Haven't you heard? Algore invented this Internet thing! :dude:
Frizz B.
06-14-2004, 05:09 PM
Like Tom says Rolo, my system takes all the thinking away and just follow the numbers. I think you are looking at the numbers and trying to analyze the info that you get from the Stock world. Who knows. The differential is right around 285 now, and probably tommorrow I will be moving back to the Stocks. Are you having trouble figuring out how to change your shares for each fund when you make a trade, with the program that I sent to you. Also, try to send this program to Tom, I have tried and Tom never gets it from me. I think you have to go away from the TSPTALK forum and do it by regular email.
Rolo, I have no plans on Florida, quite a bit away. We will meet when we both retire Millionares from this TSP. This would be a kool thing to do. Have a yearly meeting once we all start to retire and have time on our hands. When we are all millionairs, we can start a standing weekend get away at different locations, each member can have a get together. It would be nice to be able to see each other in person. Just had a thought, we all could meet in Vegas. Even now I could take a weeks vacation and start meeting in Vegas. If no one minds Reno, I go there almost every year, the last weekend in July. In Sparks, Nevada they have a Volleyball tournament, (used to be the National Tourney, but they changed the name). I play men's doubles on Satuday and then Reverse Coed doubles with my wife on Sundays. We have a group between 16 and 30 who go there from the Portland area to play. It would really be kool to stay for a week. We could also rent a condo with 3 to 6 rooms for whoever could make it. It would also be kool to take a weeks vacation on a pleasure boat. There are so many different places to visit in the US. This would give me a good reason to visit them.
So my proposal is: How many TSPTALKERS would like to do a "Same time, different place" weeks vacations get togethers.
Frizz B. wrote: Like Tom says Rolo, my system takes all the thinking away and just follow the numbers. I think you are looking at the numbers and trying to analyze the info that you get from the Stock world. Who knows.
Yes. The damage done to myself seems to be directly proportional to how much thinking I do. :* :D
You hit it, too, I am applying single-fast-growing stock-picking logic to this and that is not appropriate. I just need to STFU and listen for a while. :x:u
Frizz B. wrote:
Are you having trouble figuring out how to change your shares for each fund when you make a trade, with the program that I sent to you. Also, try to send this program to Tom, I have tried and Tom never gets it from me. I think you have to go away from the TSPTALK forum and do it by regular email.
Yes, but I plan to spend more time on figuring it out and setting it up; I needed a break. I hate math, heh. I will hook Tom up.
Frizz B. wrote: Rolo, I have no plans on Florida, quite a bit away. We will meet when we both retire Millionares from this TSP.
Sounds like a plan, on both counts.
Frizz B. wrote: So my proposal is: How many TSPTALKERS would like to do a "Same time, different place" weeks vacations get togethers.
You should start a new topic. I'm game!
tsptalk
06-29-2004, 08:19 PM
Where's Rolo? :%
Frizz B.
06-30-2004, 11:27 AM
I believe Rolo mentioned that he would be on vacation for a week or 2. :dude:
Blaaaaaaahhhhhhhhiiiiiiiii-I'm back....mostly. My mind is still partially in PT land. :D
My last contribution went to the G Fund and I wanted to give it something to do, so I am now 30C/40S/30I. I Fund looked like a good buy point to cease missing out on its gains, people like C less these days so I backed off of C, and small caps do better at the beginning of a rally...assuming we have one soon.
Not a whole lot of reasoning went into my allocation since I do not want to think too much just yet; I just did whatever felt good. Only 17% of my portfolio is TSP, so it only gets 17% of my thinking right now. :dude:
Hey Rolo,
I just started a Scottrade account today. Can you give me the stock funds I can use which mimic the C, S, and I funds? Also,, are that funds that mimic the F and G funds?
Have you heard of RYVNX? It supposedly doubles the inverse of the NASDAQ. So if the NASDAQ crashes, this fund prospers. May be good to get into when the markets drop?
Thanks,
mlk_man
Frizz B. is the guru on TSP-emulating ETFs. You would need to use ETFs since you cannot day-trade actual funds; they take a few days to settle and you will get dinged $17 everytime you sell before holding it 90 days. Also, you cannot short-sell funds.
RYVNX looks like a Rydex fund, which requires a minimum of $25K. A good idea in a declining market, but is this a declining market? Not really...it is a correcting one, staying within a clear trading range, and we have no substantial reason to think it will bust at this time.
Track what Frizz B. is doing, he has the idea with short-selling ETF's. I like the idea, two choices: you either buy on an increase, or short-sell on a decline, and no real reason to sit on cash.
Personally, I am gravitating away from mutual funds since I do better with individual stocks. My IRA's are mutual funds and I am contemplating moving them to Scottrade and buying stocks akin to Warren Buffett's style of investing and only sell when something goes wrong or when I can replace them with something better. (Shya! Right! I'd probably actively trade in my IRA's too!)
You will likely learn more about yourself than you will about money, markets, economics, etc. when playing the market.
- I, about a year ago
I had no idea what I was in for when I said that.
Earlier this week I was diagnosed Bipolar II with Borderline Personality Disorder.
I am just coming out of shock over this.
I had always known that I was "not quite normal", but I had no idea on that one either!
Apparently, stress exacerbates these. I've had a pile of stressors lately, but at the top of the list are my quitting smoking and my playing the market.
Anyway, whatdahell does this have to do with my TSP account? Not a whole lot, really, other than I have been mistakenly saying I was 100% S in recent conversations and that if I sounded like two different people (I get that a lot) then, well, there's the explanation. Also, if I got snarky, it wasn't personal.
When I checked my TSP balance today, I was surprised to see that I had 40% in C. Wow. I don't remember doing that a month ago. I even updated my Rolo's Account topic to reflect the change. Hmm.
So...holding 60S/40C, new $ going to S. I will look at moving averages, revisit the FRO, and follow mlk_man's account to decide if I want to change it.
If stocks drop to new lows, I will bail to an F/G mix.
I am staying away from I until it establishes a trend, but will likely stay away period.
My TSP account, YTD is pretty much even, only :{ 0.0136%
My IRA's are in "safe stuff" now: bonds, junk bonds, REITs, cash.
I withdrew a lot of cash from my Scottrade account for other stuff and only stuck with my long-term SIRI, XMSR, and WBSN.
Going defensive this late in the game was probably not the best choice--I should have done it sooner, or not done it at all--but...heh...I really needed to regain my sanity.
Am I talking to Rolo or ROLO right now? :PI agree with ya about the I fund, little too shaky for me right now.
How do I go about taking money out of my Scottrade account. Came seem to find that info anywhere. Guess I could call em, but I hate phones............
mlk_man wrote:
Am I talking to Rolo or ROLO right now? :P*
That's pretty freakin' funny in light of recent events! :oo
You should have gotten a debit card and a checkbook with your Scottrade account; I have them but have never used them. I did use the ABA/Account# (off of the checkbook) to transfer money online once and it worked.
I use credit cards for all purchases, then use cash to pay them when they are due. For bigger ticket items, I will still use a credit card, then pay it Scottrade, whereupon I will have the grace period to make the funds available.
YTD TSP IRR: -1.53%
One year return: +10.48%
I don't even wanna look at my other stuff.
MarketTimer wrote in the other Rolo account transactions only topic:
Rolo,
* When yields move lower, bonds go up in price and the F fund goes up in value.* When yields move higher, bonds go down in price and the F fund goes down in value.**
* Do you have any concern that yields will start moving up on you?* It is to the point where the yield curve...wha whaaa wa waaa...Charlie Brown....wahwawah waaa
blaaaablablaaaaaaaa-all this thinking and going no-where. Sure, this may be my wonky synapses talking but that is my result so far this year.
Analysis-schmalysis...I see S/C go down and F go up...so where am I gonna put my money? (This is the goal, isn't it?)
heh
It is only for a few days/weeks until C/S launch from their moving averages to cut losses rather than my skin. All of that long term yield curve/bond value/blahblah stuff is irrelevant.
Rational decisions haven't been working so I will try irrational ones. I'm goin' where the action is.
My junk bonds in my IRAs are turning meager profits with little risk. I needed to do the transfer...to...literally...keep my sanity. I cannot cope with instability in my head and in my portfolio at the moment. :D
I remember talking with you about your SAT RAD stocks a few months ago.
I'm glad to hear they are doing well for you!:)
God Bless:^
Timer
11-17-2004, 02:59 AM
Roooooloooooo Wheeeeeereee Aaaaaare Youuuuuuuu?
Hope you're well dude.
Timer wrote:
Roooooloooooo Wheeeeeereee Aaaaaare Youuuuuuuu?
hehehe...was that said like Shaggy from Scooby-Doo?
I am VERY well, thank you! (In fact, I am more well than my portfolio has been...bwaha!)
Finally the Market seems to be turning around...a few months later than I (we?) expected.
Currently, I am contemplating whether small caps will outperform large caps over the next month to a year. Had I been frequenting this board, I would probably know that, hehe.
Would a quick hop from some S to C, effective COB Monday be beneficial?
I've reallocated 2/3 of my g/f's Roth yesterday to international and small cap. The remaining third is still in large cap and am contemplating moving it to natural resources and small cap, but I think I will hold off until the end of this month, based on überTom's market comments.
Our combined portfolios have 40% large caps currently (I was surprised, I didn't think I had that much in large.)
Thoughts?
tsptalk
11-19-2004, 03:03 PM
Hey Rolo! Glad to hearall is well.
The small cap / large cap question might be answered with the January Effect.
http://www.stockhouse.com/commodities/story.asp?storyID=17394 (http://www.stockhouse.com/commodities/story.asp?storyID=17394)
It basically says that small caps consistently beat large caps in January, but I've noticed this has crept into December as I believe people try to get a jump on it before it happens which causes it it to happen sooner.
So you're managing your girlfriend's money now, huh? Must be love. Good for you. :cool:
Tom
tsptalk wrote: ...small caps consistently beat large caps in January, but I've noticed this has crept into Decemberblech...darn quote box...Yes, I noticed that Dec. creep last year.
So you're managing your girlfriend's money now, huh? Must be love. Good for you. :cool:
Yeah, we're serious...it's awesome! She is 'the one'.
I dumped the two lame funds her depression-era thinking financial planner chose and set it 40% international small cap, 30% small cap value, 30% natural resources.
Mine is 38% natural resources, 12% contrarian, 50% RS Partners (35% large, 50% small, 10% international). My SEP is small cap value.
tsptalk
11-27-2004, 03:55 AM
Timer wrote: Rolo wrote: I think SIRI will remain above $4, which makes it marginable.
...makes it marginable? Just wondered what that meant. :dah:
That means the stock is able to me bought on margin, or borrowed money. If you had a margin account with $3000 in it, you can buy $6000 or more worth of stock. Of course you pay interest on that borrowed $3000.
There is a dollar minimum on stocks which can be bought on margin.
Yup!
I love having a margin account...it gives you more options, more investing power. Since you can get yourself into trouble with it, it forces you to be mindful of what you are doing. Ultimately, it is making money off of other people's money.
80S/20C
I fund is losing its luster, puttering out (look at 3/13/39-day moving averages), so I will replace it with some C. (Thanks, Tom, for the market comments that got me privvy to the idea...I like it.)
S still looks good. eeeeEEEEEeeeeEEEeeeeSSSSSSSSSSSS! :) and I increased my %age in it. You really can't beat small-caps.
C looks good, looks a little extended and due for a small pullback and I hope my IFT happens to take place on a dip in C, spurt in I. (One thing I hate is this percentage allocation rather than just buying/selling shares:"Exchange all I for C", for example. Meh...government work! hehe)
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Stocks: I still have SIRI, XMSR, and GOOG.
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I haven't been around here much because I have been shopping for a house. wOw. Much less supply than I thought...however...with much searching I found one that fits the bill VERY nicely (and then some). It will be finished late next month:
Rolo wrote: I haven't been around here much because I have been shopping for a house. wOw. Much less supply than I thought...however...with much searching I found one that fits the bill VERY nicely (and then some). It will be finished late next month:
CONGRATS!:^ I'll be in those shoes next month.
Timer
12-16-2004, 02:03 AM
Rolo wrote: wOw. Much less supply than I thought...
We had more but some hurricanes came through and it all blew away. :oo
Pete1
12-16-2004, 05:44 AM
Hi Rolo - nice new digs - your closer to me now (Oregon).
Pete
Pete1 wrote: your closer to me now (Oregon).
Yeah! So when and whereisthe first TSPCON? heh heh
Two of us are already planning on popping by Tom's art gallery someday...the more the merrier!
Pete1
12-17-2004, 02:53 AM
Tom has an art gallery? :)
tsptalk
12-17-2004, 03:08 AM
Pete1 wrote: Tom has an art gallery? :)
Somewhere in between work, this website, and banning people from the message board, I own an art and antique gallery. :*
I've been upgrading the gallery's website. I'll post it when I get it done.
Pete1
12-18-2004, 05:59 AM
Cool, Tom.
2004...wow...learneda lot...a lot of what NOT to do. ;)
Quicken 2004 returns:
TSP: 12.48%
IRA's: 10.6% (less than index funds!? D'OH!)
Scottrade: -1.52% (possibly bogus since I withdrew $, counts as a loss :?, but I did seem to break about even)
2004 kicked my ass.
I didn't run away crying.
True, I had a mental breakdown, but I did NOT run away or cry. :D
I learned much and will continue to learn and refine my process, to become wise, and to keep turning profits in any climate, and finally, to worry less about setbacks and to have fun and to enjoy personal accomplishments.
True, I beat the C Fund/S&P 500 in 2004, but that is not my standard; I haven't been trading the C Fund. The S Fund's 18% and I Fund's 20% gain are my benchmark. I fell short. Way short. Oops!
I must find a better way. I must take the emotion out of trading and I must be more objective. Yes, objectivity. Systems. Tools measuring probablities.
As I sit here, reading posts from the TSPtalk community and looking at my Best-Charts (http://www.stock-anal.com) plots of ^DWCP, ^SPX, and EFA, trying to decide if I should make an allocation change, I remember, "Ah! I have one! I have a tool that is completely objective! It's been staring at me in the face all this time!"
The Magic 8-Ball. I've mentioned it, but I've never used it. Time to change! Objectivity!
As I have contemplated changing my allocation from 3C/48S/49I to 65I/35S, I ask the 8-ball and it speaks:
Should I increase my I Fund position? Most likely.
Should I buy some G? Try this one later.
Wow! The I Fund will continue its uptrend after a little correction and I should go to G soon for the Market consolidation! How insightful!
One thing I have learned in my ass-kicking is that, most of the time,the more I monkey with things, the more I watered down my returns. Therefore, I am holding off on this for a few days to see what the market does to look for confirmation.
However, Inow have my benchmark: not the S&P 500, but the Magic 8-ball! So, I will be standing pat for now and the Magic 8-ball account will put in an IFT for COB tomorrow: 65I/35S.
mkay...I should prolly make some market comments of some sort rather than just comments. :D
I still like S and will therefore comment on it. Tom likes C, saraho I, nobody likes F.
I've been hoping for a W ever since that three day pummeling...I mean drop. So far, we have it. I am hoping the right side clears the left side, the former high. So far, so good, with a little dramatic pause today and maybe tomorrow.
Some were saying "HAHA! or AAAAHH!" at today's lack of a rally. That's OK, red Mondays aren't a bad thing since they frequently lead to way green Fridays, indicative of a bull market (week closes higher than it opens).
So, my outlook on the S fund is "hold and wait and see" since I am 50% S and will not forfeit my shares unless I have a clear reason to. A clear reason is a confirmed trend reversal and not speculation.
I am also 47% I Fund. Dollar rally. Yuk. "They say" it should end soon. I'm still holding.
The remaining 3% is in C. I figure I would dollar-cost-average into the C Fund and perhaps by the time I have enough in C worth paying attention to, the large-cap/small-cap leading role may switch. I don't think it will be within the next 6-12 months, though. On what do I base that? My ass, really, and that money is still cheapcheapcheap.
recap: if the W breaks down, I'm outta C and S and I may add to I while it is cheap. I have been considering doing that anyway. The Magic 8-Ball said I should.
That new woman must not be "working" out for ya.
huh?
She's great! She just brought me tea, heh. Whatchoo talkin' bout?
cowboy
02-09-2005, 03:19 PM
Thanks Rolo for posting what your thinking! I have been F for the last two days. Why? No reason really, just thought the chart looked okay!
I hear ya...sometimes that's all it takes. AGG (F Fund) looks a lot like the 'Advance]'Advance (http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candles.htm~hotcontent) Block':
http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bearish%20Advance%20Block.htm
It may not be able to break that resistance ~103. Or, it could pop right past it the more people go to bonds from stocks. (but will they?)
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DWCP (S Fund): three days of spinning tops, 494-495 range; the goal is to break 505. Bears and Bulls are stalemated. Who will concede first? Yes, it's anybody's game. Let's just hope that optimism wins.
The question to myself is, "How long will I wait for that 505+?" I need to decide an escape route, sell rules. 473 would definitely kill my optimism. My cost basis is ~460 ($13.58/share) so I would still have a small profit. I might want to go a little higher to 481 as a sell point. Given the two-day latency, I should probably stick with 487 as a "technical breakdown" point.
So, if DWCP falls below 487, I will sell my S Fund holdings. If the following day is higher, I will cancel the order, in case it is just a momentary dip, otherwise, I'll sell and wait for a confirmation (again).
Things are a little different when you actually consider your cost-basis; it is a definite way to lock in profit (even if it is a meager one). It also keeps you acutely aware of what your fund is doing and where you stand. I think I will stick with this and not forget about it in frustration like I did in 2004. Of course, I sorta had other stuff going on, heh.
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EFV (I Fund): Well I see a skewed cup-with-handle. Skewed is OK given currency rates. Sound good? I dunno, I just made it up; is it a valid supposition?
The handle looks good with today being a little up. Like DWCP, we see a narrow trading range. Someone poke a pin in the buck bubble, huh?
Sell rules...hmmmmm. My cost-basis sucks because I tinkered in December when I should have left well enough alone.I think occasionally I trade for the sake of trading and not for any sound reason, that I 'must do something', that, Heaven forbid, I keep the same holdings for six months! So, Ima knock that off, it waters down my gains and puts that Avril Lavigne song in my head: "Why you have to go and make things so complicated...." (that is an awesome CD, BTW, and yes, I do own it :^, in the PT, in the slot next to White Zombie :s).
Anyway cost-basis, sell rules, blah blah, its easier to wait for saraho to tell me what to do, heh. However, since she is not in the I Fund yet (what is she waiting for?buck to top and reverse, I assume). I bought at the top at 160 and EFV is 157 now. "If only I can break even." is not a valid strategy. That is thinking on emotion and we never, ever make decisions based on an emotion, so I am not waiting until EFV hits 160 again. If it drops below its most recent low of 153, I will be worried. That, however, may make for a skewed W, so it may not be a bad thing. 150 works for me.
[line]
SP500 (C Fund): blah. I really cannot figure out why so many people default to this guy. meh, I have always been the dissident, no reason to change now. I only have 3% in this, so I am not picking it apart. It's a mini-S Fund...wanting to have S Fund returns when it grows up. If I sell S, I will sell C. C still seems to have just about as much risk with a lesser return than S.
good grief. here is the 'Advance Block'URL in pastable form:
http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bearish%20Advance%20Block.htm
cowboy
02-09-2005, 05:00 PM
Cool! Now your showing somebody what to lookout for neat! I like your strategy and I bet it works too! I have a similar strategy but fly mainly by the seat of my pants. I hear a lot of people state not to sell at a loss. I have sold at a loss and one thing I have learned there is two ways to make money. Value and the amount of stocks. If your in an uptrend play value, if your in a downtrend get out play G or F or play amount of stocks.My theory is if yourI stock isdownand is holding today, and C & S went down it brings up an opportunity. You can buy that stock and gain share, now when theI fund goes down again tomorrowwhich I think it will and the C&S hold orgo down again but if I goes further, buy it back.
I've found myself changing strategies mid-execution and mixing strategies. THAT doesn't work and makes for "doing a whole lot, but not accomplishing anything". I had a hard time keeping everything straight, but given my mental condition at the time, no wonder. But now, I've had a pretty good mental CTRL-ALT-DEL, heh heh, and having a fresh approach.
One thing that is definitely out is trading mutual funds (to include TSP funds) like stocks. I really watered down my gains in 2003 (I made 75%, but I should have made around 100% and could have made 150%...after all, two of my mutual funds made over 300% that year.)
So right now, I am sticking with "the trend is your friend" and will go with what's trendy, heh. Basically, buy-and-hold (sorta) while avoiding dips.
I am open to trading systems and would like to experiment with that at some point, possibly with ETFs in my brokerage account where you can buy on margin and sell short. I would like to be able to program my computer to do it. If a similar system would work with TSP, then I would apply it there, too. I'm all for automation! I am keeping an eye on SystemTrader to see how he does with his gig.
[line]
I should have mentioned my other holdings...I usually do, but I haven't tinkered with them much. I am holding off on investing new money atm for two reasons: the market is iffy, and I need to furnish and decorate my new house. That is also where the holdings in my brokerage account went: lush, plush carpet and bootiful tile. Not all investments are strictly for retirement, some of mine were for fun stuff.
IRA holdings(most $ to least):
RSPFX
OSMCX
QSCCX
QRACX
PSPFX
SCOVX
RSNRX
RSCOX
QRACX, PSPFX, and RSNRX are natural resources funds. I will exchange those for RSPFX or RSCOX, depending on how the market turns. I intend to add/exchange into international funds and keep domestic stocks as value stocks.
I am definitely open to suggestions, particularly since I haven't been mutual fund shopping yet. Except for Oppenheimer (locked into it until I roll it), all funds are NTF and no-load.
Interesting: http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Doji%20Star.htm
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/small/doji_star.gif
Hopefully DWCP will have a Morning Star Friday: http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Morning%20Doji%20Star.htm
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/small/morning_doji_star.gif
As far as I am concerned, the bulls and bears are still struggling and it is still anybody's game. It doesn't look exactly stupendous for the bulls, though.
Need for a change has been nagging me. I dunno if it is for the sake of change or if the cold, dark regions of my psyche are trying to tell me something. I feel like I should have done this a couple weeks ago, so it's about time I did. Hey, if a notion lingers that long, it must be correct, yes?
I'll admit, F looked tempting, thanks to fellow TSPtalkers showing me that F isn't totally useless and I shan't overlook it. G...nah. I'll go with more of a sure thing: the I Fund. EFV peeked a little above the flat trading range high today and RSI, MACD, and DMI look good. It's at the top of the Bollinger Band, so maybe it'll pull back a bit and I can get more shares by the time my IFT goes through. This two-day lag makes it much more difficult for me for some reason.
C seems to be more resillient, so maybe what they are saying about large-caps moving ahead is happening. The nice thing about my screaming my beliefs is that, if I am wrong, the correction is much more noticable and sticks out, so I should be less likely to repeat the mistake. Pride can be costly (as much as the price of stupidity at times) and I am not interested in purchasing any of it. :)
IFT Feb 10, 10:20 AM MST:
From:
C FUND 3.01%
S FUND 49.70%
I FUND47.29%
To:
C FUND10%
S FUND 20%
I FUND 70%
Which should not take effect until Monday...damned government workers! :D
Oy..mkay...just read Tom's Market Comments...must....keep...up.....on....that.
Changed IFT to:
C FUND20%
S FUND 10%
I FUND 70%
for more C over S.
_____Original Message_____
I have a question concerning your IRA holdings. Do you do IFTs in betweenall of them? How? Do you close out an account and then rollover everything to a new one or do you leave a dollar in that account so that you can rollover back the money if the fund starts going up again.
Roth IRA holdings:
RSPFX
PSPFX
RSNRX
RSCOX
Three of these are of the same family, RS Investments. They have the killer Internet/tech funds. I do exchanges between them, but I found out recently that there is a limit on them and I cannot do any exchanges until June 2005. guh. I can still, however, sell, wait for settlement, and buy another RS fund--basically, a drawn-out exchange. They Must Think We're Idiots.
I really like RSPFX (RS Partners) and glad I held onto some portion of it since it became closed while I had it. I can still add to its position, which I didn't know I could do that with a closed fund.
SEP IRA:
SCOVX
It's too small to hassle splitting between funds. This is the Strong family of funds, Small Cap Value,one of my favourites. I've hidden in their bond fund during a downturn.
The Oppenheimer crap is the g/f's Roth IRA and I'm limited to only Oppenheimer funds. I selected the funds to replace the crap some financial shark chose. It is doing much better, in spite of the huuuuuge hit QRACX (Real Asset) took in December. Only a portion of that can be explained by distributions since my distributions < drop in NAV, which = WTF?
hahahaooly crap that worked out well. EFV has a new high. DWCP and SP500 were expected to have a slight digesting of Friday's gains for sure, but they aren't giving up Friday's gains. 100% equities indeed.
The I Fund has been nagging me and thanks to saraho's pimpin' it, I increased my position in it. Lemme answer a PM (anybody can post in here, BTW, this is what it is for).
_____Original Message_____
I see you moved heavy into the I Fund. Can I pick your brain a bit? Are you there because you feel the USD will decline or the US market will decline or both? How far down do you think? Reason I ask is I am new to watching the currency market and have no experiance in what extremes it can go thru.
Watching currency is new to me too! My main source of buck-watching: saraho. I will add it to my list of tickers that I watch as soon as I figure out how to get BigCharts.com to see it. (anyone? Bueller?)
I think the international markets have a better upside than the US markets, hence the trade. Rather than avoiding risk in the G Fund, I'll do it in the I Fund. In spite of the buck's rally, it is doing well and doing better than domestic markets.
It's like the eye doctor.
Which is better, S or C? Tough one, about the same, C looks like it may be gaining very soon like people say.
Which is better, S/C or I? I for sure.
Which is better, F or G? haha, G certainly, F has too little reward for its risk. Some got bit by the Advance Block pattern...it looked like it was gonna break out, but, nope.
Which is better, I or G? I for sure, appears to have lots of upside potential with mitigated risk inherent to its intrinsic diversity.
G is The Option Of Last Resort, when all else fails, almost like a Doomsday Device, heh. (enter tsptorture's avatar)
The Plan: hold onto I for quite a while, prolly whole year the way ppl are talking. Hold C & S until we hit a new low, then it'll likely be 100% I.
Thank you to all who post information and insight here...my choices are a culmination of everyone's talk blended with my intangible gut feeling.
_____Original Message_____
Now get back to unpacking those boxes!:l
ehehehe...I got my network back together! Yaaay! Now I have an Office (just mine and g/f's computers, nice and neat, you can actually see the furniture)and a Back Office (servers and all techie stuff in the storage room that I just carpeted yesterday)...schweeet. Now I need to fix that share price updater...but...I have still more boxes to get to, but getting there!
cowboy
02-14-2005, 05:59 PM
Glad to here the I fund is working for you Rolo, it has done okay for me too! I noticed the little picture on the side has been shedding skin like a lizard. Your computer got a bug or what? I now see why I got lumped as a bozo! Just kidding I hope I fund keeps going for you.
Whooo-hooOOooo! This is a killer cover of Oasis' Song 2. (or was it Blink 182 who did that?)
I Fund, EFV: We have liftoff! We have cleared the launch pad! A new all-time high at 161, which puts us right back into the trend starting 2004-08-13 and set 2004-09-27. Two more points up may be a pivot point. So....what's my exit strategy? hmmMMMmmm...I dunno, heh. If it sails up to 190 (+20%), I should prolly take the money and run for a while. Other than that, I dunno...ideas anyone?
S Fund, DWCP: lookin' good, but still below its trendline, it has to break 500.I see a1% gain day soon perhaps...would definitely show bullish tendencies short-term.
C Fund, SP500: just a hair behind S Fund's gains...so it really must be catching up. We'll see if I should have stuck with my original IFT of 20S/10C. 1218 would definitly signal "bull run" to me. Hey, check this out:
Rolo wrote: So....what's my exit strategy? hmmMMMmmm...I dunno, heh. Other than that, I dunno...ideas anyone?
Exit strategy: Try a trailing stop. Mine is 1-2% or 20 for the S&P.
Oxygen mask in one hand, parachute in other!
Spaf wrote: Oxygen mask in one hand, parachute in other!
haha I like that! ...goes with your avatar, too.
+20%/-10% is my default for those small-cap stocks O mine, so I should probably pick something smaller, more mutual-fund-like. Those high slopes appear to always correct with horizontal, trading range motion until it gets back onto the same steady course upwards. That is what I was illustrating with the bottom trendline starting with the unleashing of the bulls in March '03. Interesting, huh? (is to me 'cos its new, heh) Methinks its time to break out the geometry. (Stand by, Mike! hehe)
I see what (tekno? ST?) was sayin' about using the $SOX as a leading indicator...it's not Absolut..er absolute and there is a feel to it.
Oh no! I musta jinxed it....SP500 gave up most of its gains and DWCP gave up all of them so far today...the bears are b----slappin' the bulls! Some serious resistance there, ~1208 and 495 respectively.
SP500 looks too much like an Advance Block: http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bearcandles/advance_block.gifIf we were in a long uptrend, I would sell today. Instead, I will wait to see what tomorrow (and the rest of today) brings with my finger on the button. DWCP really could go either way. I may be 100% I by COB tomorrow.
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-15-2005, 08:53 PM
I like your thoughts about the I fund. I have been sitting 50 G and 50 I for a little while waiting for something to happen but ..... ......still waiting so I elected to go 30 G and 70 I earlier today.
Why I went 75I/25C today...
S Fund: Small caps really do seem to be lagging behind larger caps now. Those who were saying it all last year were off on their timing just like I was off by saying it wouldn't be until the end of this year. However, this is called 'speculating', isn't it? Speculations aside, the facts are that the shift is occuring now. Thank you to those who posted those facts. (That index table posted today (http://screen.morningstar.com/index/indexReturnsYtdDesc.html?t1=1108569224)was very handy!)
I figure I'd sell my 10% S at the resistance line. Will it break past it? There are better opportunities and the chart reminds me of that Advance Block too much.
I see I Fund's drop today as a buying opportunity. I exchanged half of my S for a bit more I.
C Fund: Something was nipping at me yesterday and I finally saw what it was this morning: Rising Three Methods/Bullish Mat Hold:
R3M:http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/rising_three_methods.gif Mat Hold: http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/mat_hold.gif
If you combine Feb 7th & 8th (which you can do), you have these patterns which indicate a pause in an uptrend and to look for higher prices. Also note how the shadows have changed from being above the body to being below the body, indicating upward price action. This is why I am not too concerned about today's Harami: http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bearcandles/harami.gif
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-16-2005, 08:46 PM
How are you tracking the I fund?
I see you say EFV
which one
$EFV.EU (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?ipage=qd&Symbol=%24EFV%2EEU)
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(E
$EFV.X (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?ipage=qd&Symbol=%24EFV%2EX)
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(I
$EFV.NV (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?ipage=qd&Symbol=%24EFV%2ENV)
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(N
$EFV.SO (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?ipage=qd&Symbol=%24EFV%2ESO)
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(S
$EFV.TC (http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?ipage=qd&Symbol=%24EFV%2ETC)
iSHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND(T
I have been using EFA do you know which is the most realistic one for us to follow?
cowboy
02-16-2005, 10:31 PM
MMMM? Marco Rolo says S looks bleak and Saraho says Friday not so good looking. Tom's indicators got him on the side lines. Thursday may be the day I make a move! I may just jump into that I fund if it goes down the few more pennies that I think it might go. Will ride S into tomorrow and see if the bronc is blowed out. C is not out of the guestion and F is not either, G is a no play. Greenspin did his show and there was a bomb rumor today andmarket still up some. Rolo has his candles out, and C leadingS does not make any sense to me. That Sthat islagging may make a kick, I hope so.
cowboy wrote: MMMM? Marco Rolo says S looks bleak
Marco RoNO says, eeeeeeeeEEEEESSSSSSSssssssspthththhthtblaaaaahwell itsovernow. heh
cowboy wrote: Tom's indicators got him on the side lines.
...with a black eye from that last whipsaw! :D
cowboy wrote:
I may just jump into that I fund if it goes down the few more pennies that I think it might go.
You may want to even if it goes up.
cowboy wrote: C leadingS does not make any sense to me.
It is a part of the cycle. I remember reading it. I can't remember exactly why but it did make sense. heh.
[line]
D-Dog: I just use [EFV] Ishares Trust Index (INDEX)
I don't really know what the differences are in all the EFV flavours. We should probably look to see which one mimics S more, EFA or EFV. (EFA has the ETF's management fees, I assume, and maybe currency conversion?)
]
cowboy
02-17-2005, 01:58 AM
LOL! I 'll see tomorrow what the markets says. I may go I fund again. I haven't seen C lead anything, but do think it is weakerfund of the three.
Given theright timeframe, you can say that any fund is the strongest or the weakest.;)
cowboy
02-17-2005, 01:58 PM
Very true! Saraho. Are you still spread out in all 4 fundsyou were in before.
cowboy wrote: Very true! Saraho. Are you still spread out in all 4 fundsyou were in before.
Yes. I'm still neutral to slightly positive on the equities at this point so I have 75% spread among them, with 25% G.
By the way, for history buffs, down Januarys followed by up Februarys (if thatshow we end up)tend to leave March as a question mark.
March was one of the worst months last year (-1.7%) but that followed after an up Jan and up Feb. However, Marchis usually an OK month for returns.
Yeah, but the last March in an odd-numbered year was quite killer! :D
cowboy
02-17-2005, 03:50 PM
Looking at the markets I have to agree with Tom that the market has peaked and we will see some draw back in all of the funds. Im thinking the March history is upon us already.
Hey Rolo!
Check it out and see what you think!
RSI (relative strength indicator)
http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_RSI.html
NYSE Bullish Percent Index
Is available at http://stockcharts .com The symbol is $BPNYA
Hey if they work fine. If you got something better, let me know!
http://www.smileys.ws/sm/action/00000057.gif Rgds Spaf
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-17-2005, 04:48 PM
Rolo wrote:
D-Dog: I just use [EFV] Ishares Trust Index (INDEX)
I don't really know what the differences are in all the EFV flavours. We should probably look to see which one mimics S more, EFA or EFV. (EFA has the ETF's management fees, I assume, and maybe currency conversion?)
I have been using EFA and it seems to be the closest match for the I fund. You wrote S but I think that was just a typo. I know you use DWCP for S. I use DWCPF it adjusts for the fees.
AaaaahhhHHH...DWCPF doesn't show on BigCharts, though. Where do you find an explanation of all these flavours of tickers?
Yes, I meant 'I'..oops, heh...musta been lamenting my selling of S. :D
[line]
BPNYA doesn't show up, either...guess I need to find a BigCharts replacement. :( I looked at the RSI and I dunno, like most technical indicators, if you can apply it universally (I need to do some hardcore reading on the topic). The example they gave in the pic, the negative divergence > 70% to show a top, seems like it may be immutable. It's probably a way to guage whether the market is 'running out of steam', ya?
[line]
C Fund: Ain't Skeered! :P heh. Hopefully today's drop is just a one-day breather. Mike, you got those launch keys ready?
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/side_by_side_white_lines.gif
This pattern, Bullish Side-By-Side White Lines (http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Side-by-Side%20White%20Lines.htm),(rightmost bar is yesterday) shows some minor profit-taking and the uptrend should resume. We'll C...nyuk nyuk.
S Fund: meh.
I Fund: wee! Not another black day. Nice. Volume appears weak if EFA is any indication. I do wonder if bailing today would have been a smoove move. We'll see what FrIday holds...
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-17-2005, 08:22 PM
use this for big charts on the S fund
95899W10
Interesting trendlines for AGG (F Fund); this may be a buying opportunity.
(Yes, in case I decide to run to the hills, some F may be in order.)
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-18-2005, 03:42 PM
Rolo wrote: Where do you find an explanation of all these flavours of tickers?
Check this out it may provide some info
Read the fact sheet they have
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showWilshire
vectorman
02-18-2005, 03:53 PM
Rolo where are you getting the chart where youare showing that R3M pattern, What does the long white body represent? Is it a long run during that day, but setting back down near bottom at the end of that day? Thanks
vectorman
02-18-2005, 04:01 PM
Rolo, any idea way the S&P is so flat today?Rolo take a peek at this EFA chart. It seems lookingat the high volume spike at the end of June and the end of Dec, where the dome starts to flatten out, this action might come before a possilbe pull back. Your thoughts.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-18-2005, 04:12 PM
MI oh mIwhI do I shI about the I can it reach a new hI? Im sure it will trI
Rolo are you still 75% I?
vectorman wrote: Rolo where are you getting the chart where youare showing that R3M pattern, What does the long white body represent? Is it a long run during that day, but setting back down near bottom at the end of that day? Thanks
I go to HotCandlestick [link] (http://www.hotcandlestick.com/index.htm?http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candles.htm~hotcontent)for pattern info. For today, you have to use a little imagination, heh, dunno if you can really do that, but it sounds good. I just pictured today being settled at the bottom of yesterday's trading range (wish I said that yesterday...woulda had a 'whooOOOooo' factor goin' on there.)
White day = closes higher than open; long white day = closes a lot higher than open, like S&P did on Jan 18, Feb 4, 11.
I am still 75I/25C. I may be 100I soon.
Stupid link...here, paste this:
http://www.hotcandlestick.com/index.htm?http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candles.htm~hotcontent
vectorman
02-18-2005, 04:51 PM
Thanks Rolo, I really appreciate the info and help. Hey, how are you able to get on the PC so much? Night Job.
I took some vacation time and am supposed to be working on the new house, heh, so I bounce in & out here a lot. The fun will be over Tuesday, though, and will only be on in the evenings. :(
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-18-2005, 05:19 PM
What is up with the houses there $$$$ I just bought a new one in Thornton. That should make a little chunk in about 3-5
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-22-2005, 07:19 PM
Here is another you could use later.
LOL! Awesome comic!
re: S&P500 today. Ow. Quit it.
Monday being down can be a good thing, as long as the week closes higher than last week's close. Also, I am sure the long weekend gave many more time to chicken out.
Rolo wrote:
re: S&P500 today. Ow. Quit it.
chicken out.
Barbecue chicken and:end:
Rgds http://www.smileys.ws/sm/sad/00000017.gif Spaf
TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote: MI oh mIwhI do I shI about the I can it reach a new hI? Im sure it will trI
Rolo are you still 75% I?
ROFL! I just realised that I didn't comment on your comment, DD, I was too busy laughing.
I wish I were 100% I right now...meh. I haven't lost confidence in C Fund;if the S&P drops below 1167 I will, but it can still make a higher low. However, I am looking for a reason/opportunity to move to 100% I.
F Fund: seems like it broke the trend, ja?
Oh, I like to put Buffalo sauce on BBQ wings ...hmmmmmghghghgh...Buuuuuffaloooooh...
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-23-2005, 02:40 PM
Yea, I feel bad for some of the folks that were in the F. We all new it was comming. I have been sitting 70% I for the last 3 weeks and went 100% effective:
Date of Request: 02/22/2005
Time of Request: 11:02:40 Eastern
Effective Date: 02/22/2005
Christmas in FEB.
Allow myself to introduce...... ....myself. BAAAHHHHAAA!!
At the least it could have been a good move as a buying op.
cowboy
02-23-2005, 03:39 PM
Ouch! Quite humbling isnt it? Whats your plan now.
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-23-2005, 04:11 PM
I'm just going to hang in there for a little bit, I think that this is a bounce back on the us dollar. If it starts to dropclose towhat I have earned in the last 3 weeks I will move out.
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-23-2005, 04:22 PM
This may be a buying op for many. look at the seasonality chart. Today is the 16th trading day and it is usually low, but look at the 17th trading day. Hmmm?
http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_february.gif
cowboy
02-23-2005, 05:58 PM
I am thinking you may have a point, but the upside does not look good to me on the chart on the I fund. I think it may slide some more than that mirage of a 20th day may pop on the 19th trading day which would be the 28th. I think S may go up some more tomorrow also but bailed on it. These markets have not moved much since January 1. If I fund does not drop tomorrow than I think S will move up. Lets watch and see.
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-23-2005, 06:44 PM
cowboy I think you have a good idea about this.
The us $ may have a short term rally according to sarah and she has been pretty much right predicting what the dollar will do.
I expected a bounce back but not a short term rally.
With the C and S low, this may be a good op to get in however, I think I will make my IFT after hours so that I can hope for the 17th trading day return on the I Fund.
I will more than likely go 35 30 35 CSI
How about you?
I wonder what rolo is about to do!
cowboy
02-23-2005, 07:20 PM
I am thinking playing I fund 100% if it goes down again tomorrow. Don't know if I would jump into it or not yet as I like to watch the market. If the fast line on the S goes over the slow I might just play the S. I had several chances on the I fund and missed it both times. I am probably missing this one today. The problem with this type of trading once you make a move your at the mercy of the market for 4 hours prior to knowing what you get. I played todays market hoping for that .05% gain. By 3:00 it could be all but gone. I agree there may be a play here, thats the risk we all take.
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-23-2005, 08:34 PM
The Stocks are up, but look at this.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=8&freq=1
TEUFEL HUNDEN
02-23-2005, 09:55 PM
Ok they fixed it. It showed a drop in the S&P to 1113 Must have been O.E. on the chart master.
Still thinking about C & S
cowboy
02-23-2005, 10:29 PM
LOL! Could you imagine this happening. S&P loses 77 points in one minute! Maybe their squirel got loose and ran down some secretary's leg. OhHHHH! Typo!!!
pyriel
02-23-2005, 10:54 PM
TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote: The Stocks are up, but look at this.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx&time=8&freq=1
God, I really suck with charts. Let me guess, Am I looking at the letter "T"?
pyriel wrote: Let me guess, Am I looking at the letter "T"?
LOL!
My plan...hmmm...first...
I am going to smack myself in the forehead and go D'OH! 'cos I considered going 100% I last night and I don't know why I didn't...other than the stupid subconscious notion of "well, if I don't choose, then I can't choose incorrectly" and thereby left well enough alone. That woulda been a saaaweeheheheeeeet trade.
1184 a new support for SPX? We'll see. Decent volume after yesterday's sell-off, so there are buyers. Hmmm...next month...March...maybe there will be a SPRING! in the market, too. heh. hmmmmmMMMmmm.....cheeeeeesy....
The latter half of my plan (after the head-smacking...no, not head-spanking) is to not buy into the I Fund on a bounce tomorrow due to today's drop.
F Fund: a white hammer would be a more bullish pattern. I don't know if you can apply these to bond funds...but I don't see why not. I'd rather acquire more I shares instead.
*Bullish hammer: http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/hammer-dragonfly_doji.gif <-- need white day confirmation.
Whoo-hoOOoo! Three Inside Up for C Fund!
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/three_inside_up.gif
That is a confirmation of the bullish Harami. We could be on our way to a new high...If nothing else, away from a lower low.
Rolo wrote: Whoo-hoOOoo! Three Inside Up for C Fund!
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/three_inside_up.gif
That is a confirmation of the bullish Harami. We could be on our way to a new high...If nothing else, away from a lower low.
Cool. Even if it doesn't confirm, you can always get a job as a Japanese translator. What's a Harami? *LOL* (just teasing)
hahaha...all the Japanese I know I learned from a Styx song!
A Harami is the pattern formed in the first two days; the Three Inside Up is the confirmation of the bullish movement.
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/harami.gif
Psychology...
A long 1st day with high volume in the existing downtrend brings complacency to the bears. The next day trades in a small range within the previous day's real body. Light volume on the 2nd day should give rise to concern by the bears of an impending change of trend. Look for higher prices over the coming days, especially if the next day provides confirmation of a trend change by closing higher.
lsitter
03-03-2005, 01:30 PM
Rolo, have you been playing around with that program I sent you? 4.27% so far this year!
Lou ;)
what program could that be? rolo
Oh crap, Lou, I forgot all about it! heh. I got this school/seminar thing going on for six weeks and barely have time to look at the chart in the evening, totally missing posts here.
It looks like C and I broke out and S is still working on it. Currently 27 C, 73 I.
tsptalk
03-05-2005, 06:20 AM
Rolo wrote: It looks like C and I broke out and S is still working on it. Currently 27 C, 73 I.
Not a bad week, huh? Nice job!
Yeah, but let's see if it holds and for how long. I do make it a point to check the charts daily and to check to see what people are sayin'. I think I am beginning to get a feel, to get the rhythm of the charts. It's not so much the study of markets, economy, etc. as it is of human nature--of how human nature responds to the economy. Markets, etc. may change, but human nature doesn't.
hehe...all week I'd check the intraday charts on my phone (Samsung i600..has Windows Mobile on it) to 'keep in touch'. We can see that line of resistance being met. Since Monday was lower, I was hoping Friday would be higher (sign of a bull) and the only way to accomplish that was to break through the resistance.
Since DWCP has not broken 502 yet, small caps are still in need of catching up. Tom, and those who said large caps will now outperform small caps, were right. (whew! I'm glad I wasn't such a hard head and looked for evidence to prove their opinion!)
The question now is: What would we consider to be the new support line? 1200? 1210?
:}2.33% YTD...I need to look at that spreadsheet!
tsptalk
03-05-2005, 05:36 PM
Rolo wrote: The question now is: What would we consider to be the new support line? 1200? 1210?
Yeah, since the trend is rising 1195 to 1210 depending how quicklyit tests support,but for this breakout to be considered "real", we'd want to see it stay above Friday's breakout level (~ 1217).
Yeah, that sounds good...the body needs to stay above ~1217, otherwise, it's just 'noise' that happened to bump past Dec high. Personally, I won't be concerned if it stays above 1200 next week. I would expect some minor profit-taking in the beginning, but the week needs to close > 1217. If it doesn't, then I may go 100% I.
Hmmm...body towards the bottom of the shadow on SP500. A day or two correction is probably expected. Hopefully, that is not an indication that the tiny run-up is over. Hopefully, it will stay level, showing support and strength. Dropping below 1213 would be bad.
Harami on EFA, cool. Hopefully we will have a Three Inside Up rather than a Three Inside Down. Currency fluctuations may distort the pattern, so account for it.
I'm staying in both...no need to get jitterish on speculation, just go where the evidence leads.
I did a bit of tweaking in the rest of my portfolio that I wish I'd done a month or two ago...falling asleep at the wheel can make us miss gains.
My top six picks:
PSPFX - Global Natural Resources - just added more to my position in it and moved some RSPFX into it.
RSNRX - Global Natural Resources - I added more to this position.
QRACX - hard assets
Van Eck World-Wide Emerging Markets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
Van Eck World-Wide Hard Assets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
UNWPX - Precious Metals
Other funds:
OSMCX - International Small Company Value (I may reduce this position, gotta check redemption fees)
QSCCX - Small Company Value
RSPFX - RS Partners, a long-term keeper
SMTVX - Multi-cap Value (traded SCOVX - Small Cap Value for it)
RSVAX - Formerly known as RSCOX, a value fund
Gartmore Global Utility III (I can't find a ticker)
Montana
03-08-2005, 08:13 PM
Thanks for the symbols and comments Rolo. I'll research them to see if any will fit in my portfolio. Gives me some options to think about.
:*
Just to make everyone welcome, I put my stuff out there to invite commentary too. My two biggest concerns are buying/adding at a top and spotting the next top sector too late (which are almost the same thing and lead to buying high and either selling low or waiting a long time to break even/make a buck).
If anyone has a different approach or even a similar fund that they think is better, by all means share your insight. Perhaps we can all post our holdings in our respective account talk threads and can compare notes. As a collective, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
TSP: 73 I, 27 C still. SP500 had a black day as I expected. Two nice things about it: the black body stayed within the prior two white bodies, effectively making a Harami, and a new support level could be forming at 1211-1215. I think we'll be good if tomorrow's body stays within today's body (assuming it doesn't go higher, that is). I Fund still looks good, steady.
Gritz
03-08-2005, 11:52 PM
Appreciate your input and sharing how you come to your conclusions; especially, for one such as myself who doesn't have the savy or time to provide what you do, kudos :^. Good idea about the collective, wisdom in a multitude of counselors, but isn't this more or less already done by yourself and others? I'm sure I must be missing the point.
Agree about the possible support level for C, but I'll be a tad concerned if we drop below the 1205 mark. As for the I, go baby go (although I expect some retracing soon).
Rolo wrote: Hmmm...body towards the bottom of the shadow on SP500. A day or two correction is probably expected. Hopefully, that is not an indication that the tiny run-up is over. Hopefully, it will stay level, showing support and strength. Dropping below 1213 would be bad.
Harami on EFA, cool. Hopefully we will have a Three Inside Up rather than a Three Inside Down. Currency fluctuations may distort the pattern, so account for it.
I'm staying in both...no need to get jitterish on speculation, just go where the evidence leads.
I did a bit of tweaking in the rest of my portfolio that I wish I'd done a month or two ago...falling asleep at the wheel can make us miss gains.
My top six picks:
PSPFX - Global Natural Resources - just added more to my position in it and moved some RSPFX into it.
RSNRX - Global Natural Resources - I added more to this position.
QRACX - hard assets
Van Eck World-Wide Emerging Markets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
Van Eck World-Wide Hard Assets Fund R (I can't find a ticker)
UNWPX - Precious Metals
Other funds:
OSMCX - International Small Company Value (I may reduce this position, gotta check redemption fees)
QSCCX - Small Company Value
RSPFX - RS Partners, a long-term keeper
SMTVX - Multi-cap Value (traded SCOVX - Small Cap Value for it)
RSVAX - Formerly known as RSCOX, a value fund
Gartmore Global Utility III (I can't find a ticker)
Looking like a TKO to me, good job Rolo. Now give us some OB or PKstocks to take a look at..........I have $500 and to make $10000 so I can take a vacation..............:P
Waiting for the market to turn before I buy individual stocks. Also, I spent all my stock money, so I have to stockpile more again, after my IRAs are fully funded.
I am looking for a buy point to buy back SIRI for long-term holding.
I am waiting for WBSN to top and fall. It did a helluva lot better than I thought it would. medium term
GOOG is still on my watchlist, looks like it could be at the bottom of a cup right now. short term: too high P/E and too volatile for long term
I dunno what news hit (?) XMSR, but it shot up real good. I can't remember, is that a good pennant or a bad one? long term or short term
VLCCF and NAT...are they done or should we look for a buying opportunity? I meant to buy the former for only a weekjust to catch the dividend, but I forgot. :?
hehe, It'd be quicker if you started with $2000 so you could margin. :)
Rolo wrote: VLCCF and NAT...are they done or should we look for a buying opportunity? I meant to buy the former for only a weekjust to catch the dividend, but I forgot. :?
hehe, It'd be quicker if you started with $2000 so you could margin. :)
LOL, I was kidding about the $500...........
I agree with ya on SIRI, just a matter of time before it hits at least $8 again, "pre-stern". I think XM helped by raising their monthly rates. Of course some think "well if they raise rates for no apparent reason, then they must know something". Tough call, maybe Steve has something going on with XM?
SIRI will be up and down till Stern comes on, in my opinion, but it may besooner than most think. FCC just raised the fines remember. I'm actually looking for E channel and SIRI to get together and make a satellite TV/radio unit. Downloadable of course. I hope William Shattner is alive to see it!!! :D I may have spelled his name wrong. Sorry Captain!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyway, check out XSNX. They go commercial in the 2nd quarter and Bush sent a proposal to Congress pushing solar energy. Cheap buy and hold as far as I'm concerned. Perhaps I can put it on my truck windows and save some gas..........
re: today and yesterday's drops: Ow quit it.
Posting my picks musta jinxed them, they had some pretty good blows these two days. Hey! A good buy point, hopefully.
I am hoping today was the nadir and tomorrow picks up, closing the week in an up-trend mode.
HOOOOOOOOOLY CRAP! PSPFX, my 2nd largest holding, shot up 9.96% today! Odd for a mutual fund; I wonder if/when it's gonna deflate...
Is now a good time for precious minerals? My UNWPX dropped a tad (I just bought it) and wondered if I should add more orjust addmore PSPFX. Suggestions?
C Fund/SP500: Doink! A nice bounce off the 50-day and the drop is slowing and showing signs of reversing. Let's hope for same or better tomorrow. A lot of stocks on my watchlist have had great gains with about 60/40 up/down.
I Fund/EFV: Still trading within March 4th's body. Sumpin's gotta give sometime soon! Let's hope the buck collapses below the old lows. Wonder what that'll do for domestic equities? Make'm cheap for foreign investors? Inject new life into our market's rally?
TEUFEL HUNDEN
03-15-2005, 11:01 PM
How are you sitting now? Last I recall you were 75% I and 25% C. Did you IFT today?
Aww ww... (http://www...)PSPFX went right back down 9% :( Easy come, easy go.
I bought some more UNWPX.
Yes, DD, I am still 75/25 I/C. It looks like C may test 1184 support.
Rolo wrote: Yes, DD, I am still 75/25 I/C. It looks like C may test 1184 support.
Declines are rather swift, advances rather small. 1184 should be a support level, should. Would like to see a bullish single bar reversal, somewhere about this time. If so, I might take a different position,however am reluctant to venture outside till the horsemen settle down.
C Fund/SP500: I think we hit support today @ 1172 with this spinning top. The bears and bulls appear to be stalemated and uncertain.
This can actually be a higher low if you look at the past six months. The prior low was 1163. Jan 3, the high was 1217 and a new high set on Mar 7 was 1229. These would all be consistent with very slow growth overall, which is what the pundits are thinking for 2005.
We could be seeing a choppy market with a macroscopic uptrend for the better part of the year. That could be an opportunity to make serious gains or to screw the pooch. Either way, it'll test yer mettle. I'm up to it...to kick myself for doing something or for not doing something? That is the question...
This week will probably be pretty flat with signs of faint life on Thursday. I believe now is the time to buy if you are trying to buy on a dip. We'll see if Monday gaps up or gaps down.
I Fund/EFV: GUH! I really hope we hit support at 159-dot-ought. I am soo tempted to go 100%C (from 75I/25C) right now. I don't have the 'testicular fortitude' to do it though. ;)
Holding, but concerned. I'll get you next time, Gadget, next time.
mlk_man
08-31-2005, 01:05 PM
Well well, it's "Rolo and the Cruisers"!! What's up old boy? Good to see ya. Did Katrina drop you off?
M_M
grandma
08-31-2005, 06:40 PM
:DRolo, it is good to see your smiling face again! And, congratulations for your returns!!
Oy! I'm lost! heh
This is my 2004 babble...which should remain buried long ago...'cos my returns weren't spectacular and they should be hidden, hehe. They weren't CRAPtacular, though, so I am happy.
I put my 2005 babble in the WRONG category...heh...PMing Tom...
Link to it: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1038.html
ehehehe...HEY Milk! Glad to see ya...and that we're not in straight-jackets..bwahaha
Our regularly scheduled programming will return shortly....
My lack o' posting isn't just a lack o' posting...it's a lack o' pretty much everything...I haven't been scrutinising the market in months...just let everything ride and regularly checked for a pulse.
How funny. Last night I decided that I would post tonight, "I think the market will bust out of its 1-week trading range in a heavy move either up or down tomorrow". I was one day off. If I didn't procrastinate, I would have looked really "WhooOOoooOOOoooooo!"
heh
Which reminds me....I never finished my book-for-procrastinators, Eat That Frog! Maybe this winter.... :D
Will Thurs & Fri be mega-up days like today, making three long white sticks and sideliners go "D'oh!"? .. or .. will the week end in a pullback right where we started..?
We'll see. I'm bullish, thinking that breaking the prior high will happen by a few weeks.
I wonder if we'll have a f***** up January Effect this year like we did last year--as in, not only are you not getting your January Effect, but the market's gonna plotz as well! That was not fun..very disappointing.
mlk_man
09-01-2005, 12:42 PM
Rolo Member
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/avatars/79.jpgJoined:
Mon Mar 22nd, 2004Location:Colorado (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_user.php?region=Colorado&country=USA) USA (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_user.php?country=USA)
Posts:1254Posted: Wed Aug 31st, 2005 11:20 pm
Quote (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/reply.php?topic_id=274&post_id=29416&quote=1)
Replyhttp://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1038.html
hehehehe...HEY Milk! Glad to see ya...and that we're not in straight-jackets..bwahaha
Didn't you see my avatar? I'm in a body-suit straight jacket, they determined that I have other "dangerous weapons" besides just my hands. I'm jumping around trying to get out.................:P
M_M
nnuut
09-01-2005, 12:57 PM
Rolo, nice to see ya back. Makin' big money, good. See, you quit posting and I lost my butt. Not nice! :@
Norman
lovegardening
09-01-2005, 01:01 PM
Hey Rolo, glad to see you back again, posting. Missed your expertise on these boards. Where ya been? Now where is Mike....he's been missing too.
lovegardening
09-01-2005, 01:02 PM
Hey Rolo, glad to see you back again, posting. Missed your expertise on these boards. Where ya been? Now where is Mike....he's been missing too. (I read the posts daily, just hardly ever comment, not that educated in finances)
Show-me
09-01-2005, 04:44 PM
Rolo,
Glad to see your alive! They told me you were dead!:l
Show-me wrote: Rolo,
Glad to see your alive! They told me you were dead!:l
I'm not dead yet!
lovegardening wrote: Hey Rolo, glad to see you back again, posting. Missed your expertise on these boards. Where ya been? Now where is Mike....he's been missing too.
expertise? bahahaha...when'd I get that?
Mike's MIA? bummer
Mlk, you have a big head and no neck. neat!
[line]
Nice jump for the I fund these two days, eh? Should I cash out for something else, or let it ride? hmm.. I gotta catch up on the board here. Then, at least, I will have all these facts and opinions to justify my indecision. :D
NghtRn
09-02-2005, 02:47 PM
I just want to thank all of you regular members who post and share your expertise. I have up to now sat by, monitored all of your information and definitely have benifited from it. :^ If it wasn't for tsptalk, I would probably be sitting in G-Fundland forever and my retirement account wouldn't be where it is now. I definitely have more money in it, than what I invested. Thanks! I am wondering, though, right now I am 35% C, 35% S, and 30% I, what I should do for Tuesday. I might play it safe and catch that penny on the G fund? Either way, this is a great place to learn, hopefully make more than loose web site.
mlk_man
09-02-2005, 03:19 PM
NghtRn wrote: I just want to thank all of you regular members who post and share your expertise. I have up to now sat by, monitored all of your information and definitely have benifited from it. :^ If it wasn't for tsptalk, I would probably be sitting in G-Fundland forever and my retirement account wouldn't be where it is now. I definitely have more money in it, than what I invested. Thanks! I am wondering, though, right now I am 35% C, 35% S, and 30% I, what I should do for Tuesday. I might play it safe and catch that penny on the G fund? Either way, this is a great place to learn, hopefully make more than loose web site.
Welcome NghtRn, I take you are a nurse? Is this your license plate logo?
Me personally, I'm going to wait till the last minute to make a decision. If the funds are up a healthy percentage, I'll go to the G fund because we "should" get the penny on Tues. If we are down, I'll probably stick with my 100% S fund.
Last year the week before labor started down on Mon. then went up until Fri., when it lost it a little,and then was up again Tues. Due to the volatility of this time of year and the fact the S fund has been up two straight days, I mainly track the S fund, I'd expect either today or Tues. to be down. Just have to pick which one..........:*If I had to pick one, right now I'd say today would probably be down at fairly flat. Although I'm hoping it's up since I'm in.
Of course trend wise, all moving averages are now up except the 20-day, I track 11 different moving averages. So if one doesn't want to guess what would happen, I'd say just stay in and let the MA's dictate what to do. Of course getting the "sure" penny is quite tempting especially after this lastest run up these past few days. I believe the F fund will fall back a bit at this point.
Does that straighten things out for ya? :h
Sorry for posting in your thread Rolo.
Good luck,
M_M
mlk_man wrote: Sorry for posting in your thread Rolo.
Not at all! This is the babble thread...what it is for...a forum doesn't do much good without babbling.
I, too, am deciding what to do.
[line]
S Fund/DWCP: At the top Bollinger band, but looks like it's gonna pop wide open, but which way will the price action move? The three-day candlestick doesn't look good at all. I think Tues will be a black day, falling to a support level at 525.37 and then turn around. It may hit its 50-day MA first. So no S fund for me right now, but I'm contributing to it and looking for a buy point.
C Fund/SP500: Smack in the middle of the Bollinger bands. The spinning tops (equal upper and lower shadows with a little body) shows total indecision. The bulls & bears are slugging it out in a stalemate. I am holding my 36% C at least. Next week should show who will come out on top. It's just a tad above 50-day, so I am bullish on C.
I Fund/EFA: We broke the prior high! So I take my profit or let it ride? Hmmm. If you eliminate the dollar-drop, we really didn't break the prior high. It's well above 50-day and the trend is slowing. This tells me "pullback soon" and to take my profit OR, it shows strength and that the I Fund is the place to be.I HATE getting whipsawed, so I think I will keep my 63% I.
F Fund/AGG: Yup...falling from its upper Bollinger. I don't like F anyway.
G Fund: Take the Tues penny? Perhaps, but what will it cost me? I don't want to give up a two-cent gain in another fund to get a one-cent gain in the G and THEN have to buy back what I had and not only lose my one-cent, but however many cents higher the C or I gained. Too much risk for too little gain.
So, no IFT for me today. See ya Tues.
nnuut
09-02-2005, 06:04 PM
Klaatu is not alive! :l
ROFL! Maybe we can program Gort to come up with a trading system. It surely beats destroying the planet.
C Fund :}1.29% nice! I think there is a good chance of passing 1240 by Friday (one or two day stagnation, then another jump). This is the reason I kept my C. Chart looks good; I think it has strength.
S Fund :}1.21% almost as nice a C. Same for chart pattern...looks pretty strong. Will the Bollinger bands pop wide open?
I Fund :}0.66% WTF? The Index (EFV) is :}1.13%. Where's the other half?
F Fund (not trackin it really) The chart pattern looks tempting (nice black hammer), the the DMI and MACD and location in the Bollinger bands don't look to well. Not worth the risk...why take so much risk for so little reward?
G Fund = cash Ima start callin' it the GOTCHA! Fund. :D
Okay...still didn't get that other half of those I Fund gains...musta been used to pay the fees to run those L funds. :)
Well, today happened exactly as I expected (okay, 75% allocated to 'expected' and 25% to 'hoped'). Tomorrow, I am thinking more of the same--small body, spinning top or lower shadow only--or a jump up.
A little more pullback would make me more warm and fuzzy. What are my sell rules? err...I need to think about that, but I think I'll need another week on that. "We'll see".
If I were on the sidelines now, I would seriously think about buying in. The only reason not to is if you think the market will be dismal for a long time. MT is the only one I know like that, hehe.
Awesome...I feel more warm and fuzzy.
C Fund 34.81%: Low tomorrow of 1228 (1223 possible but unlikely) and a high of 1243. That would move me from 'warm and fuzzy' to 'Herbal Essence commercial'.
High pressure front on the upper Bollinger Band. Two or sodays of calm, steady weather should let the pressure dissipate.
S Fund 2.41%: Pretty much the same as C. I don't think it will grow quite as quickly as C.
I Fund 62.78%: The currency jumps in the chart make me feel like I have to focus like on those "Magic Eye" posters. More upside price action is called for soon. Growth seems to be slowing.
F Fund: WHYYYY would anyone buy this?
Good morning!
C&S: So far, so good! (...so what! heh) Nothing but upside price action, no lower shadow yet. Will the upward momentum continue today? I hope so.
Something I just saw by looking at DWCP's tiny white body this morning: a wedge. Wedges (candlestick and chips) are usually good, setting the stage for a breakout (and sometimes a breakdown). That big move may not happen until Monday. I do not like that scenario as much as I would like it to happen today. From what I can tell, a week closing higher is indicative of a bullish trend and a week closing lower represents a bearish trend. Is it absolute? No, gravity and G-d are only absolute.
I think we are at a critical point (this week and next week) to where the weeks need to continue to close higher. If the rally does not happen until Monday, then I believe next Friday has a greater chance of closing lower. Yes, it is possible that Monday rallies and Friday will still close higher (that would be great, and the beginning of an awesome run-up). My main point here is not to have an itchy trigger-finger.
I Fund is still lookin' good, albeit quiet.
coolhand
09-09-2005, 11:16 PM
I'm glad youdiscuss candlesticks and such. I've been studying them. I expect to start using those indicatorsto some extent before much longer. That and some other indicators that Spaf uses.
You know anything about ew?
EW? Electronic Warfare? heh
coolhand
09-10-2005, 12:39 AM
lol...close. Elliot wave.
coolhand wrote: lol...close. Elliot wave.
I've seen the term but have no idea what it is. What is it?
[line]
Next week...gonna be exciting in any case.
Rolo wrote: C Fund 34.81%: Low tomorrow of 1228 (1223 possible but unlikely) and a high of 1243. That would move me from 'warm and fuzzy' to 'Herbal Essence commercial'.
Ohhh! Ohhhh! heh. SP500, C Fund: 8-ball says to upside action next week, "Don't hold your breath". Bah! First, I think the upshot will continue and will top the prior high. 2. If not, a perfectly flat base would be nice, and C. a sharp drop ( > 1217 ) will not scare me off on the assumption that a nice bounce to make a 'V' to complete the wedge, then a breakout past the prior high the week after next. A real reversal would surprise me.
Rolo wrote: I Fund 62.78%: ... More upside price action is called for soon. Growth seems to be slowing.
EFV, I Fund: The Magic 8-ball says that it will "Probably not" close higher next week. I disagree. We have a nice W with a handle and a breakout above the prior high. A little more volume would make that picture-perfect (the volume is not lacking, just not orgasmic). I am expecting a continuation and a good pace, not too slow, not a climax.
Rolo wrote: S Fund 2.41%: Pretty much the same as C. I don't think it will grow quite as quickly as C.
S Fund, DWCP: Seems to be slowing...will it beat the prior high? I think so, but it appears that it will not outpace the C Fund. Magic 8 says "It is not clear".
Rolo wrote: F Fund: WHYYYY would anyone buy this?
eheheh...sheesh. It's still not lookin' good and it'll be that way for a while, I think. The 8-ball thinks it isn't crap. I think it's just disagreeing just to disagree.
All TSP funds and XAU (gold & silver index, 25% of my portfolio) are behaving as I expected: Small body within Friday's trading range, little/no shadow, the beginning of a flat base. So far...so good...so what!
I'll go on a lark here and say that a flat base will continue until the 16th, then a breakout on the 19th, a day before the FOMC.
I am a little concerned that my XAU-category funds (QRACX, PSPFX, RSNRX, UNWPX, and Van Eck) are correcting a little more than they should...keeping a close eye on them.
C Fund: Y'know...up until the last hour of today, everything looked sweeeet and I was on a roll.
Yesterday, it was clear that this was the pattern forming: http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/rising_three_methods.gif
And even today....until the end and that fourth day there, rather than a Doji (tiny body with small shadows) turned into a black day down to 1227. I agree with Spaf's posts in that 1227 is "Yellow Alert".
Rising Three Methods (the above pattern) isa good thing...just means bulls are taking a breather.It seems the bulls lost some confidence today. Perhaps they will wait until the 50-day MA for a buy-point?
S Fund looks pretty much the same.
I Fund: Still looks good.
F Fund: May be a short-term profit-maker at least. The candlestickhttp://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/hammer-dragonfly_doji.gif (Hammer) shows that a reversal is likely and that tomorrow will tell. Ideally, a white real body Hammer with a higher open tomorrow could be a bullish signal for the days ahead.
All the wavy, curvy lines look good: price is slightly above 50-day MA, smack in the middle of the tightening Bollinger bands, and MACD is turning around.
Couple the losing confidence with the seemingly rising confidence in bonds and the salivating at the imminent FMOC announcement....holy shitski, I think Ima buy some F!
Current allocation:
C Fund34.88%
S Fund2.41%
I Fund62.71%
IFT allocation:
F Fund 30%
I Fund 70%
New contributions still going to S.
<tap, tap>
Hello?
Is this thing on?
Can anybody hear me?
Does anybody read this frickin' thing?
heh...just wondering if I'm talking to myself here. That's OK, since writing my thoughts helps me to develop a clear strategy...probably becuase more of the brain (the parts that involve typing, reading, articulating, etc.) are comitted to this stock voodoo that we do.
Buyer's remorse. yup. Ima wonderin' if I shoulda left well enough alone. Not totally, but the seed of doubt is there. Is that bad? Depends how it is used, I suppose. Currently, it is keeping my mind open, and that is a good thing.
AGG/F Fund, 30%: I probably should have waited for that confirmation Hammer; instead I got a Spinning Top at a lower price. meh...I got F shares cheaper. I hope the sale ends very soon. :) I'm optimistic that it will not fall below the bottom Bollinger.
EFV/I Fund, 70%: Flat base? That'd be cool. I am wondering if I should have just put 100% into I...I may do that if it breaks 54.
C/S Fund: I will kick myself if it starts the second side of that 'V' I mentioned.
XAU: Holy cow will it ever stop climbing!? My metals funds have kept my down days near zero.
Hello! Hello! http://www.websmileys.com/sm/happy/1286.gif This is Rolo's Account Babble Page! Hello! Hello! <click> [Must not be on!]
Oh! sorry...forgot it was one of those Push-To-Talk thingies...
vectorman
09-21-2005, 12:53 AM
That F fund move doesn't look too bad after the last two days.:^
ehehehe...Due to my uncertainty, I've been sayin' IRL, since I bought the darn thing, "I'm either brilliant, or a bonehead with this F fund move...only time will tell!"
Yesterday (the big up-day) had me visualising one of those chew-toys for dogs.
I'm not out of the woods yet, but I think today did tell a lot. What, exactly, I am not certain, but I'm sure it was a lot. :D
[line]
C Fund: When I checked BigCharts this morning, SP500 was up. I expected it to be down. "Oh..MAAAAAN what was I thinking selling C? How am I gonna buy back with little egg as possible?" I got home, checked, negative .79%...."whoo-hoOOoo!" heh
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bearcandles/small/identical_three_crows.gif http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bearcandles/small/three_black_crows.gif Crows signal more down days
I am expecting two more days like today, not necessarily in a row. I am expecting ~1221 soon and then, I dunno...maybe lower, maybe a turnaround, we'll see how the pattern develops. Unfortunately, we didn't get the breakout I had hoped so the market's in a refractory period for a short while at least...we'll see if Q3 results arouses it again.
F Fund: Yesterdays spinning top looked promising (still does, but todays long lower shadow kinda sucks). I say 'kinda' because the high volume with a small trading range would be mere churning, which is not so good. Since AGG's lower range is so low and the body is so small and toward the top, I think it was a promising day, upward pressure.
http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/hammer-dragonfly_doji.gifHammer, bullish, reversal
We got the bottom Bollinger band like I predicted, and hopefully a bounce upward. I hope tomorrow opens higher.
I Fund: Not much to say...flat base I suppose.
This: http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bearcandles/small/three_outside_down.gif or this: http://hotcandlestick.com/pics/bullcandles/small/three_outside_up.gif Unfortunately, the former looks more likely over the latter. Perhaps more horizontal movement.
S Fund: blech.
I'll look for an opportunity to trade some F for I very soon.
This morning...
C & S Fund: BLAM-O! (ehehe...I love those '50's words) right down the 50-day MA. Now peel the egg off your face and eatchyer crow. hehe...I can't talk...I was holding the bag the last time this happened, "Aw hell...do I sell now or are we too close to the bottom?" I hate trying to figure that out. I usually default to holding since mid-to-long term I am bullish.
F Fund: Whoo-hoo! The bonehead sentiment has dropped! Some white days would be nice. Piercing the 50-day MA would be nicer. I wonder if AGG & SP500 generally cross their 50-days about the same time normally...hrrmmmmMMMmmm....
I Fund: Do I see a flag forming? Three-up? (see above candlestick pattern) I hope so! (Again, more white days would be nice) So far its taunting me...
Show-me
09-21-2005, 04:52 PM
Steady big boy! By the way I really enjoy your analyst of candlesticks. Charts for C and S are not looking good. RSI, Slow STO, CCI, Wm%, and ROC are all heading south. Weaker dollar “should” take some of the sting out of the crappy European markets. Go F fund!
vectorman
09-21-2005, 04:56 PM
Rolo, if the S and C continue down, I look for the I to soon follow. But your long anyway and should finish with a good year.
pyriel
09-22-2005, 11:58 PM
Rolo, you bad boy. Stop posting at people's account. If you don't stop, i'll tell Grandma to have youdrop your drawers so she can spank you... :P
So in how many accounts do I have to post for grandma to call in reinforcements? :D
grandma
09-23-2005, 05:01 AM
Pyriel wrote:Rolo, you bad boy. Stop posting at people's account. If you don't stop, i'll tell Grandma .... :P
Rolo wrote: So in how many accounts do I have to post for grandma to call in reinforcements? :D
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/shucks.gif???? What did I miss here? http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/searchinfo.gifI think I must have gotten swallowed up trying to digest all of Tekno's information today - Anything to take my mind off the I fund today - !!! Unreal - !
ehehehee...blink and you can miss somethin' around here.
C/S Fund: aww...I didn't get my third black day, but I won't rule it out for today or Monday. I'm also not ruling out that the test of the lows isn't over (e.g. things be bullish henceforth). The plan, atm, is to wait for it to break 1245 before getting back in.
F Fund, 30%: Holy crap more churning than a Quaker mamma! Very high volume, zero price movement, bulls/bears deadlocked. Ima little bullish on this one, holding.
I Fund: I don't like that saggy windsock pattern (no, that's not an 'official' name, but it looks just like that, no?). Holding...bullish that it'll move past the flat base.
I doubt I'll make any changes until I see Monday's action, but I'll keep reading over the weekend.
C Fund: Hmm...wonder if today will go back down. No matter...I'll speculate wildly here: I will look for resistance and a reversalat 1227. Hopefully, the down-days will be few, then reverse again, creating a big pennant (look at SP500 on BigCharts, 1-year to see what I mean).
F Fund: Aww...heh. Perhaps the universe is normal now in that when stocks do well, bonds should do poorly, and vice-versa. Still holding.
I Fund: I think the pattern looks good...long flag thing goin' on. I should probably go 100% I...but WHEN? heh.
grandma
09-23-2005, 10:47 PM
Rolo wrote: ehehehee...blink and you can miss somethin' around here.AND in Mlk's Funland wrote:
....Hey mlk...I just looked at your account #3 (but didn't post in it...so put down the cat-o-nine tails, grandma) and I have to ask, mlk, "Whatdahellyoo dooin'?" heh...all over the place and such
.I was too scared to reply in mlk's land !!!
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/cave2.gif
Rolo, I have to ask - whtshel you talkn' bout???
Have I typed myself into a jam... ?????
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/printerormousejam3.jpg
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/smileyslove.gif
grandma wrote: Rolo, I have to ask - whtshel you talkn' bout???
Have I typed myself into a jam... ?????
Pyriel started it! :u
pyriel wrote: Rolo, you bad boy. Stop posting at people's account. If you don't stop, i'll tell Grandma to have youdrop your drawers so she can spank you... :Pheh heh
/me slooowly slinks toward the door...
Guuuuhhhhh...back from a weekend of spankin'. Ever see that PowerPoint slide of Mickey Mouse singing "Monday Sucks!"? Yeah...
C Fund: wOw...more spinning tops than Romper Room! I don't like the pattern. I can't really quantify that, either, other than I think tomorrow and the rest of the week will be down. Am I bearish? no. Am I bullish? hrmm..long term, of course. I am waiting to see. If I had C Fund shares, I wouldn't be quick to sell them...particularly since I regret selling the 36% C that I had....which leads me to:
F Fund: I didn't expect that lower gap...whassup widdat? Did I not say, last week or two, "Why would anybody by this [F Fund]?" Well, I bought it.Being one of the buyers brings me no closer to the answer to that question. I hate to say this, but I wonder how many trades are done simply 'cos "the grass looks greener". I got out of C to mitigate risk. In my self-defeating sense, I bought F assuming the very same risks I avoided in C! WTF? That makes no sense. I will unload it for...
I Fund: Rising dollar a threat? I dunno...in the big picture of the buck's value, where is it now? Is it particularly low? If so, that could be a problem. Is it smack in the middle? If it's near high's then it shouldn't be a problem. In any case, I'm looking for the better point to go 100% I (F :}a little, I :{a little, and C/S look bad).
XAU: The lifeblood of my portfolio. Methinks I need to find a new lifeblood within six months...maybe before January. I missed energy this whole past year and I'm a bit peeved at myself for that and do not want to be clueless when the gold mine collapses.
The pattern isn't as tight as it has been...could be the beginning of some instability. (Instability in the market? NOOOOooooo!)
So our next assignment: upcoming sectors...thoughts, anyone?
Rolo,
Hey, CK out [ILF] and [EWZ]! ;) Spaf
Show-me
09-27-2005, 12:40 PM
Don't forget EWW also.