Asian News [Archive] - Page 4

Ichiro

09-01-2006, 12:46 PM

1sep-dailyfx-$ looking ahead to ism and payrolls

by kathy lien

"Japanese Yen

"According to recent data, the Japanese economy has been getting progressively worse. Overnight, industrial production dropped by 0.9 percent against the market’s forecast for 0.7 percent growth. Housing starts also fell by a much larger 7.5 percent while construction orders dropped by 20 percent. In the context of such large disappointments, it is hardly surprising that small businesses have actually turned pessimistic on the outlook for the Japanese economy. The weaker economic data makes it even more unlikely for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates anytime soon. This means that in order for the Yen to reverse its recent slide, we would need to see either a sharp dollar sell-off or another revaluation announcement from China."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/060831/1157063800054.html?.v=1

Ichiro

09-01-2006, 12:49 PM

1sep-cnnmoney-stock futures up slightly

""Everyone is comfortable with the moderate employment growth being forecast," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. "But given where the consensus is on jobs, anything weak would suggest the economy is weaker, and investors will be nervous about corporate earnings ahead."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/060901/090106_stockswatch.html?.v=2

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:52 PM

2sep-dailyfx-us$ no more hike this year per fed fund futures

" Fed fund futures are pricing in a less than 20 percent chance of another rate hike this year. Nothing in the reports had what it takes to push us out of the 1.2750-1.2925 trading range that we have been trapped in since the beginning of the month. Looking at next week’s calendar, aside from non-manufacturing ISM and the Beige Book report, there is little US data. However the beginning of a new quarter and the return of traders from their summer holidays could still lead to some new positioning that could drive market activity. "

for info:http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar___No_More_1157144223916.html

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 10:02 PM

2sep-dailyfx-euro stablizes ahead of nfp

by boris shclossberg

"The EUR/USD recovered the 1.2800 figure in steady overnight trade as economic data generally confirmed Mr. Trichet’s view that the 12 member region is in the midst of a sustainable recovery and will likely see further monetary tightening as the year comes to a close. PMI Manufacturing slipped a notch printing at 56.5 against 57 expected as higher oil prices and a higher currency weighed slightly on demand in July. However, the gauge of industrial activity in the Euro-zone remained materially above the 50 boom/bust level indicating that the sector should continue to contribute to overall growth."

for info:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Euro_Stabilizes_Ahead_of_NFP_1157107121160.html

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 10:07 PM

2sep-recuters-tough ecb talk raises specter of rates over 3 pct.

"Tough talk from the European Central Bank and its upgrade to growth and inflation forecasts have raised the specter that ECB interest rates could peak above 3.5 percent now priced in by financial markets."

for info:

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-09-01T153319Z_01_L01637772_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-ECB-RATES.xml

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 10:12 PM

2sep-bloomberg-asian stocks rise this week on us growth.

by micheal tsang

"Asian stocks gained this week after reports indicated the U.S. economy is expanding at a pace that will sustain demand for the region's goods without fueling inflation. Exporters such as Nintendo Co. and Acer Inc. gained."

"It looks like the U.S. is headed for a soft landing, with less need to worry about inflation than we thought,'' said Kim Jun Ki, who manages about $1 billion in equities at Hanwha Investment Trust Management Co. in Seoul."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=as1_bFzygB4w&refer=asia

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 10:16 PM

2sep-japn stocks retreat on concern economy is cooling

by makiko suzuki

" Concern that recent stock market gains were excessive contributed to today's decline. The Nikkei rose 4.4 percent in August, while the Topix climbed 4 percent, both posting their biggest monthly advances since March."

``Some gains in the past were not supported by fundamental reasons,'' said Hiroshi Chano, who helps oversee $6.7 billion at Yasuda Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``I'm still not sure investors' confidence over the second half is big enough to push shares higher.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=atW6GVlE1Ero&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 10:22 PM

2sep-bloomberg-$ advances after us employers hadd more jobs in aug

by deborah finestones

"The dollar rose against the euro after a government report showed the U.S. added more jobs than expected last month, bolstering speculation the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again this year."

" International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato told reporters today China needs a currency that reflects the quickest pace of growth in a decade. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may ask China to increase the yuan's value when he visits this month. A stronger yuan makes exports from Japan, its largest trading partner, more competitive."

"There's talk China may increase the value of the yuan,'' said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. ``This would push the yen higher.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a8nOUQa8vJBk&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 10:36 PM

2sep-fso-rydex ratio implies prices iwll go higher

by carl swelin

"After the decline that lasted from the beginning of May to mid-June, a second bottom was made in July, from which the current rally emerged. Both the bottoming process and the rally have been rough and tedious, causing a lot of anxiety among market participants, and resulting in strong, persistent bearish sentiment. This is clearly visible on our first chart of Rydex Cash Flow analysis."

for info:http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2006/0901.html

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 10:39 PM

2sep-fsu-the technical palette (for the new investors)

by david petch

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2006/0901.html

Ichiro

09-03-2006, 10:03 PM

3sep-cnnmoney-bond edge higer on weak economic reading'$ falls (this will benefit the F fund)

"the 30-year bond rose 2/32, or $0.63 on a $1,000 note, to yield 4.87 percent, down from 4.88 percent in the previous session. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions."

For info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/060901/090106_bonds.html?.v=3

Ichiro

09-03-2006, 10:09 PM

3sep-reuters-us stoncs may climb after labor day

by vivianne rodrignes

"Now that everybody is coming back, we are going to see the real impact on the stock market of all the data that has been released in the past couple of days," said Alexander Paris, an economist and market analyst for Barrington Research, in Chicago. "Some of the reports showed a drop in consumer confidence, while other indicators came in better than expected. Bottom line is: The Fed has no reason to raise rates in September and that may help stocks."

For info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060903/column_stocks_outlook.html?.v=1

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 01:30 AM

4aug-ci-the yield curve as a predictor of us recessions

by aruturo estrella

for info:http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 09:09 AM

4sep-retuers-yen gains on strong data

by nanomi tajutsu

"The yen has struggled due to soft data on consumer prices and industrial output, which pushed it to a record low against the euro last week, but it got a reprieve on Monday after data showed Japanese firms increased capital spending by 16.6 percent in the April-June quarter compared with a year earlier."

"Another factor supporting the yen was an enormous build-up in short positions in the currency, suggesting that the yen could get a lift if traders decide to unwind positions."

"The dollar has stalled, and today's data was fairly strong, so this could be an opportunity to pull back on the short yen positions that have been piling up," said a trader at a U.S. brokerage in Tokyo."

for info:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060904:MTFH89029_2006-09-04_05-58-00_T355395&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 09:11 AM

4sep-ap-euro rises against $

"The dollar lost ground against the three major currencies on Friday even after the latest snapshot of U.S. employment came in better than expected.
"

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060904/euro_dollar.html?.v=1

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 09:17 AM

4sep-bloomberg-bank of america sees yen rising

by kosuke goto

"The yen may rise starting this month on speculation finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations will reiterate their call for stronger Asian currencies, according to Tomoko Fujii, a strategist at Bank of America N.A."

"``Traders seem not to have fully factored in this month's key event risks for the dollar-yen,'' said Fujii at Bank of America in Tokyo. ``The issue of global imbalances, featured by China's trade surplus and the U.S. current-account deficit, will certainly appear on the agendas of the G-7.''

"The yen may rise to 112 against the dollar by year-end, Bank of America forecasts, a level not breached since June 5. Japan's currency gained to 116.43 per dollar as of 7:45 a.m. in London, the biggest advance in five weeks, from 117.09 on Sept. 1 in New York."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aSGKIvPLIUxs&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 09:21 AM

4spe-bloomberg-uuan rises

by chirsitna soon

" Traders have increased bets, based on prevailing government policy, on how much the yuan will climb in the next three months, according to forwards contracts. They imply the yuan would strengthen to 7.8818 in December, if freely traded, from a Sept. 1 three-month rate of 7.8945."

for info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aGGFS3l.KU.E&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-06-2006, 11:40 AM

6sep-bloomberg-uen climb as fukui may signal rate increase

by kabir chibber

``Overseas funds are buying the yen,'' said Satoshi Tate, a senior vice president of the foreign-exchange division in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest lender by assets. ``There's speculation the BOJ Governor may not be so dovish'' after the meeting ends on Sept. 8."

``The Japanese economy remains firm, exemplified by strong capital spending,'' said Yuji Kameoka, a senior economist and currency analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research, a unit of Daiwa Securities Group Inc., Japan's second-largest brokerage. ``I still expect the bank to raise rates as early as November.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=home&sid=aBguuvgy0RlM

Ichiro

09-07-2006, 12:09 PM

7sep-retuers-yen, on g7 agenda, jumps vs $

by sujata rao

"Thomas Mirow told reporters in Berlin the "yen had clearly weakened against the euro and the dollar" -- an issue that would be discussed at the mid-September meeting in Singapore.

Analysts said the comments reflected euro zone governments' unease about the euro's strength against the Japanese currency."

for info:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060907:MTFH73157_ 2006-09-07_10-23-23_L07863683&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage3

Ichiro

09-07-2006, 12:12 PM

7sep-reuters-nikkei posts biggest pct fall in month'

by risa maeda

"Tatsuo Nishimura, portfolio manager at Meiji Dresdner Asset Management, said the Tokyo market has been ripe for a correction given that it hit a three-month closing high earlier this week.

"A market correction looks reasonable as the recent run-up has had little fresh fundamental news behind it," he said."

for info:http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060907:MTFH70751_2006-09-07_08-29-32_T124003&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 12:06 PM

8aug-reuters-us stock future rise as oil falls

"U.S. stock futures gained on Friday as oil slipped to a new five-month low and investors looked to end the week on a high after equities suffered in the previous two days on uncertainty over U.S. interest rate policy.

There is little on the earnings or economic calendars but Federal Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto is due to speak on inflation and monetary policy at 1400 GMT."

for info:http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-09-08T103035Z_01_L08625849_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-US-EUROPE.XML

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 12:10 PM

8aug-reuters-yen edges off

by sujata rao

"The yen hovered below a one-month peak against the euro on Friday after Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui said he did not expect the yen to be at the centre of talks at the upcoming Group of Seven meeting.

Fukui also said the BOJ would raise rates gradually which, analysts said, would keep the yen at a disadvantage in terms of interest rate differentials with the U.S. and euro area. "

for info:http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-09-08T110632Z_01_L0879510_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-4.XML

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 12:13 PM

8aug-cnnmoney-stock set for a higher open

"U.S. stocks were poised to rebound a little at Friday's open, as investors who have worried this week about interest rates prepare to get back into the market.

At 6:10 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher."

for info:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 12:22 PM

8aug-ap-bank of japan leaves rates unchanged.

"The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged Friday amid speculation about when the nation's central bank will next tighten credit as the economy recovers.

Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui provided few clues, merely saying that recent data showing weak inflation didn't change the bank's overall view on prices.

"We will adjust interest rate levels slowly," while keeping a close eye on economic and price moves ahead, Fukui told reporters at the end of the bank board's two-day meeting."

For info:http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060908/japan_central_bank.html?.v=10

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 12:28 PM

8aug-bloomberg-japan's consuimer prices to keep rising

by lily nomomiya

"Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said consumer prices will keep rising, reinforcing speculation that the central bank will increase interest rates before the end of the year."

``Prices are basically on a positive trend,'' Fukui told reporters in Tokyo today. Last month's revision to the way consumer prices are measured ``won't prompt us to change our basic stance.''

" The yen may strengthen to 115 per dollar next week, according to Mizuho's Fukui, who isn't related to the governor. The yen traded at 116.45 against the dollar at 11:09 a.m. in London, from 116.43 in late New York yesterday and 117.09 a week ago."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=avxq9iHepW1M&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 12:30 PM

8aug-euopean stocks rise in first time in 4 dyas

by adria cimino

"European stocks advanced for the first time in four days on speculation earnings and economic growth will increase even as interest rates move higher."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a9qE.Ux6SE1E&refer=europe

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 09:48 PM

9sep-dailyfx-japanese yen ready to take off

by jamie saettele

"117.05 needs to hold as resistance in order for the bearish scenario to play out. Bollinger bands on the daily are tight and favor a breakout; a move lower could be violent. The 10 day SMA is turning (negative slope), which favors the downside. Prices below the 9/5 low at 115.55 strengthen the above idea. "

for info:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/Dollar_Nears_End_of_Rally_1157713917826.html

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 09:56 PM

8aug-bloomberg-china will be proactive on yuan

by gemma dalye

"China, under pressure to let the yuan strengthen, will be ``more proactive and progressive'' in letting the market set the currency's value, Finance Minister Jin Renqing said."

" ``We could actually see a faster appreciation of the yuan over the next few months'' as China seeks to slow the economy, said Hans Goetti, managing director in Singapore at Citigroup Private Bank, which oversees about $1.5 billion in Asia. ``At the end of the day, China will decide, based on their domestic agenda, how fast they will move.''

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aMJlPRl0niCk&refer=asia

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 10:01 PM

8aug-japan's stocks rises as lending climbs, rates remain unchaged

by makiko suzuki

"Japanese stocks gained after bank lending climbed for a seventh straight month and the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged to bolster growth in the economy. "

"`Given the condition of the Japanese economy, the Nikkei appears cheap around 16,000,'' said Yoshihiro Ito, who helps oversee $689 million in assets at Okasan Capital Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Companies are expected to raise their profit forecasts next quarter and the BOJ decision not to increase rates is another factor aiding the market.''

"Japanese bank lending rose for a seventh month in August as companies sought cash to fund increases in capital spending. Loans climbed 1.9 percent in August from the same month a year earlier, a Bank of Japan report in Tokyo today showed."

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aisXxmGtdRbc&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 10:15 PM

9sep-fsu-a cautionary housing tale from japan (very interesting!!!-- house prices dropped by 50% in Japan several years ago-it is a long article but worth reading if you are interested in undertanding how a typical japanese person thinks when the housing price was dropping..)

by michael nystrom

for info:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0909.html

Ichiro

09-10-2006, 11:32 AM

10sep-bloomberg-yen posts biggest weekly advance

by min zeng

"European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet urged developing Asian nations such as China to allow their currencies to gain gradually, the Boersen-Zeitung reported yesterday, citing a guest column to appear in today's edition.

``Asian countries such as China and Japan will be pushed to allow their currencies to strengthen,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington. "

for info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJgh6lmCIpAI&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-10-2006, 11:37 AM

10sep-opec concerned about oil price drop

by jim efstathion

"`If you have a recession, the price of oil will tank,'' Schenker said in Vienna. ``Right now we're pricing in a 30 percent chance of a recession next year. If there's a 30 percent chance of a recession, there's a 30 percent chance of sub-$40 oil.''

For info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adyRy6LDFOK0&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

09-12-2006, 01:45 PM

12sep-ap-trade deficit hits $68B

by martin crutsinger

"The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the July deficit jumped 5 percent from the June imbalance. Analysts had expected the deficit to worsen slightly, but the overall imbalance was worse than expected and surpassed the old monthly record of $66.6 billion set last October."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060912/economy.html?.v=2

Ichiro

09-12-2006, 01:48 PM

12sep-reuters-$ edges donw after record us trade gap

"The dollar slipped and then recovered on Tuesday after the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in July, as dealers shrugged off the data and focused on paring large bets against the greenback."

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060912:MTFH63739_2006-09-12_12-42-58_NYH000255&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-12-2006, 02:00 PM

12sep-bbc news-china trade surplus at new high

"The price of the yuan appreciation so far has been just too moderate and the trade surplus is related to structural problems," said Xiao Minjie, an economist with Daiwa Institute of Research.

"The US is likely to step up its pressure on China to let the yuan rise," he added.

The yuan has risen by less than 2% since being revalued in July 2005 after being tied to the dollar.

China's currency and its trade surplus are expected to be key issues at this week's World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meeting, in Singapore, which will focus on global imbalances in the world economy. "

for info:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5334076.stm

Ichiro

09-13-2006, 01:37 PM

13sep-bloomberg-yen rebounds

by ron harui

"The yen rebounded from a five-month low against the dollar after Bank of Japan board member Atsushi Mizuno said ``fine adjustments'' will continue to be made to interest rates.

Japan's currency snapped a three-day losing streak as Mizuno's comments in an interview published today fueled speculation the BOJ may lift rates a second time by December. Signs of slower growth and lower-than-forecast inflation spurred the yen to its biggest monthly drop this year in August.

``In light of what Mizuno said, the market may have to look at the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year,'' said Daragh Maher, a senior currency strategist at Calyon, the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA, in London. ``It's clearly a yen-positive signal.''

Maher expects the yen to advance to 112 versus the dollar this year."

for info:"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ajZaY18aK9Gc&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-14-2006, 01:20 PM

14sep-reuters-euros firm....

by veronica brown

"The euro firmed against the dollar and yen on Thursday, but stayed in narrow ranges ahead of this weekend's G7 meeting and U.S. retail data later in the day that could yield further clues on the interest rate outlook.

Speculation has rippled through the market on the likelihood, or not, of the low yielding yen becoming a focal point at the gathering after a German finance ministry official said last week that its recent weakness would be discussed, spurring a rally in the Japanese currency.

"We have had a lot of comments about the G7, about China, about whether they will discuss the yen... If anything, the big unknown is how much criticism Japan will get, how much talk there will be about the yen," said Niels Christensen, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale in Paris."

for info:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060914:MTFH41816_2006-09-14_11-46-07_L14175789&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-14-2006, 01:43 PM

14sep-ap-retial sales slow in august

by martin crutsinger

"The Commerce Department reported that the nation's retailers saw a tiny 0.2 percent increase last month following a much bigger 1.4 percent rise in July. It was the weakest performance since sales had actually fallen by 0.5 percent in June."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060914/economy.html?.v=2

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 07:53 AM

17sep-bloomberg-china pressued by g-7 to make currency more flexible

by rob delaney\

"China is set to come under renewed pressure today from the Group of Seven industrial nations to make its exchange rate more flexible as a way of easing international trade imbalances.

``We need to see more flexibility in the Asian currencies,'' Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in an interview yesterday as he prepared for talks in Singapore with his G-7 counterparts and central bankers.

How far to push China, which has become the world's fourth- largest economy, will be a key topic at today's G-7 meeting. An April decision by the group to step up its three-year campaign by calling for the yuan to appreciate sent the dollar tumbling."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aW5fATtId4Xg&refer=asia

`

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 08:02 AM

16sep-singapore reuters-imf sees strong asia growth

"Asia's economic output is likely to remain strong this year and in 2007, but monetary and fiscal policy will prove challenging during this period, the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday.

In a detailed report on Asia's economic outlook released ahead of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, the IMF projected a slight slowdown in export growth -- in a region where exports are the equivalent of between 40 and 200 percent of GDP -- but it said capital flows into Asia would remain robust. "

for info:

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gvv.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 08:08 AM

16sep-signaproe reuters-europe concerned about yen depreciation--g7 source
"
Europe is concerned about the recent depreciation of the Japanese yen and hopes that Japan will take at least verbal action to halt the trend, a G7 source told Reuters on Saturday.

"The yen has depreciated a lot and in the G7 statement there will be a reference to the strengthening Japanese economy which should be seen as a signal that the currency should appreciate," the source said. "

for info:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gvy.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 08:48 AM

16sep-singapore reuters-imf says supports gradual rise in japan interest rate

"Given the risk of slipping back into deflation and notwithstanding the fact that growth was quite strong ... the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates very gradually and continue to lag behind the curve," Dan Citrin, a senior adviser in the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, told a news conference in Singapore. "

for inof:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gwg.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 10:25 AM

16sep-singapore reuters-china comes under g7 fire for holding down yuan

by garvin jones

China came under pressure on Saturday to let its currency rise faster to ease imbalances in trade and capital flows that pose one of the biggest risks to global growth.

Finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the Group of Seven rich nations were set to repeat a call for Beijing, blamed by critics for holding the yuan down to boost its exports, to take the currency off the leash.

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"The communique singles out China just like in April," a G7 source told Reuters.

When they last met in Washington on April 21, the G7 said: "Greater exchange rate flexibility is desirable in emerging economies with large current account surpluses, especially China, for necessary adjustments to occur."

"for ifno:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gxs.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 01:57 PM

17sep-reuters singapore-economic imbalances shared repsonsiblity-paulson

by glenn somerville

"U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Saturday that major industrial countries and key emerging economies like China share a responsibility to bring global economic imbalances under control.

Specifically, Europe and Japan need to undertake reforms that will boost their growth, said Paulson, who was attending his first G7 session as U.S. Treasury chief.

China is pivotal because, without a sharp rise in the yuan, its Asian neighbors will be reluctant to let their own currencies appreciate for fear of losing competitiveness."

for info:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43h0l.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 02:09 PM

16sep-yahoo singaore-g7 tells china unleash yuan

by yoko nishkawa

"The Group of Seven rich nations urged China on Saturday to let its currency rise faster to help ease perilous imbalances in trade and backed a rise in the yen to reflect Japan's strengthening economic recovery.

"Greater exchange rate flexibility is desirable in emerging economies with large current account surpluses, especially China, for necessary adjustments to occur," the G7 said.

"We noted that the exit from the zero interest rate policy and that its recovery is now broadly based -- we agree that the yen will reflect these developments," Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, told reporters.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck used similar language, suggesting a coordinated message: "The (Japanese) exchange rate should reflect these two developments."

Europe is wary of the yen's softness for fear that the euro will have to bear more of the burden of global currency adjustment. But Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, too, chimed in by saying the yen should mirror Japan's fundamentals.

China is pivotal because, without a sharp rise in the yuan, its Asian neighbors will be reluctant to let their own currencies appreciate for fear of losing competitiveness."

f"We noted that the exit from the zero interest rate policy and that its recovery is now broadly based -- we agree that the yen will reflect these developments," Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, told reporters.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck used similar language, suggesting a coordinated message: "The (Japanese) exchange rate should reflect these two developments."

Europe is wary of the yen's softness for fear that the euro will have to bear more of the burden of global currency adjustment. But Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, too, chimed in by saying the yen should mirror Japan's fundamentals.

for info:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43h0c.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 09:28 PM

17sep-bloomberg-tanigaki says yen's drop vis euro has been rough (the yen will rally on Monday)

by lily ninomiya

"``The recent decline of the yen against the euro has been a little rough,'' Tanigaki told reporters after finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations met in Singapore today.

The yen reached a record low of 150.73 versus the euro on Aug. 31 and has dropped 6 percent this year, sparking criticism from European governments concerned it will sap their economic expansion by reducing the competitiveness of their exports.

The minister's comment will boost the yen, Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s London-based chief economist, predicted. ``Tanigaki is recognizing there is an issue about the yen,'' said O'Neill. ``The yen will rally on Monday.'' The yen wasn't mentioned in the G-7 joint statement.

Japan's recovery from deflation and the end of its zero interest rate policy ``must be reflected in the exchange rate,'' German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said today. Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said the ``large pickup is something that is very important, and the yen will naturally reflect this development.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aYIiJ4h0T9J0&refer=japan

I

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 09:48 PM

17sep-nikkei net-Japanese financial markets will be closed on Monday, Sep 18, a national holiday.

Pilgrim

09-16-2006, 11:03 PM

What does it mean if for the I fund if the Yen is traded on Monday and rallies strong against the dollar, but the Japanese stock markets are closed?

Ichiro

09-17-2006, 12:27 AM

Folks,

even if the japan market is closed on monday, the yen is still traded in the other international market such as in usa and europe. It will be quite interesting how much the yen and euros will appreciate against the dollar early next week. However, it will not appreciate much compared to the last g7 meeting earlier this year... I invested in the stock market for the past two decades and a half but I have never seen a roller coaster market like this year.

Ichiro

09-17-2006, 12:33 AM

17sep-fsu-market overbought but sentiment still favor bulls

by carl swelin

"The S&P 500 Index is approaching new 52-week highs, but there is short-term overhead resistance immediately ahead, and our primary medium-term indicators are becoming modestly overbought. Does this spell trouble for the bulls? Probably not. Overbought conditions are not necessarily a problem in a bull market, and there are still way too many bears for an important top."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2006/0915.html

Ichiro

09-17-2006, 12:36 AM

17sep-fsu-the chinese paradigm

by thomas au

Once again, President Bush’s Administration has been leaning hard on China to re-value its undervalued currency, the yuan. The Chinese nod politely and make some modest adjustments, but basically, the exchange rate between these two currencies will stay put for as long as Chinese, not American, monetary authorities can maintain it.

Raising the Yuan Would Make China’s the World’s Second Largest Economy

It would make sense to allow the yuan to rise to give a truer picture of China’s economy. Even I was surprised to read the other day that China’s GDP using purchasing power parity (rather than foreign exchange because the yuan is way undervalued), is about $9 trillion, versus $12 trillion for the U.S., and just over $2 trillion usin"g the official exchange rates."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/au/2006/0915.html

Ichiro

09-17-2006, 08:52 AM

17sep-yahoo singaproe-japn gets off lightly at g7 talk

"Japan got off lightly at a weekend meeting here of Group of Seven finance chiefs, where European ministers had hoped for a strong statement evoking the dangers of a weakening Japanese yen.

In the event, a final communique from the session Saturday, drafted by Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, made no mention of recent movements in the yen.

"Clearly, neither Japan nor the United States shares the European concern about the yen, which is continuing to depreciate," commented Antoine Brunet, an economist with the bank HSBC.

He said Japan "intends to take advantage of the still under-valued yen to build up the volume of its external surplus and protect its recovery."

The United States, he continued, is again anxious about inflation, with newly appointed Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson preferring "strong dollar rhetoric" to head off a weakening in the dollar and an increase in inflationary pressures."

for info: http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060917/1/43h8t.html

Ichiro

09-17-2006, 01:02 PM

17sep-yahoo singapore-yen set for volatile surge on post-7 jawboning

"Currency markets are bracing for the Japanese yen to push higher on Monday, as an apparently co-ordinated euro zone/Japanese effort to talk up the beleaguered currency at the G7 meeting is seen bearing fruit.

"I think you'll see a short-term, knee-jerk sell off in euro/yen on Monday when trading resumes, given the co-ordinated jawboning by Japanese and euro area finance ministers," RBC Capital Markets global head of foreign exchange strategy Monica Fan said.

"What you do notice is a conspicuous absence of euro/yen bearish comments from other G7 finance ministers ... The odds of this jawboning turning into FX intervention are negligible," she added.

Markets had been jittery going into the weekend meeting of powerful nations in Singapore after speculation on whether yen weakness -- which has seen it hit record lows against the euro -- would be discussed.

"Expect some degree of volatility in euro/yen, pretty much to the downside -- Tanigaki acknowledged the recent weakness of the yen, saying that recent moves had been 'rough', so we would expect quite a sharp move in euro/yen lower from Monday," Standard Charted head of FX strategy Callum Henderson said from Singapore.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note on the G7 gathering that remarks on the yen could mark the beginning of a turning point for the currency, which has lost more than 6 percent against the euro so far this year.

"The Japanese MOF (ministry of finance) may now be forced to shift lower its dollar/yen ranges from the current 105-125," Goldman Sachs said, adding: "The G7 outcome probably also means that MOF officials will have to drop the old mantra that a 'weakening Yen reflects Japan's fundamentals'."

for info:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060917/3/43hbk.html

Ichiro

09-19-2006, 08:37 PM

20sep-ap-stocks off after coup occur in thailand

by ellen simon

"Stocks dropped suddenly Tuesday after Thailand's military launched a coup against the country's prime minister.

Traders watching Thailand closely are certain to remember how trouble in the kingdom had worldwide implications in the past: The Asia currency crisis that erupted in 1997 began with the devaluation of the Thai baht, then snowballed into a currency crisis in emerging markets around the world.

The baht fell sharply Tuesday, as did Brazil's real, which also tumbled in the '97 crisis."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060919/wall_street.html?.v=25

Ichiro

09-19-2006, 08:54 PM

20sep-bangkokpost-coup d-etat in thaliand

"The army commander Gen Sonthi Boonyarataglin staged a coup d'etat Tuesday evening (Thailand time) and ousted the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

A so-called "Democratic Reform Council" declared itself in control and declared martial law nationwide. Terse announcements said it included the commanders of all three armed forces and the police. It said the coup was necessary to correct "unprecedented division in the country."

The Council said there seemed to be widespread corruption, and independent agenies were subverted by politicians, apparently a reference to the Thaksin government. "The national government through the current administration has caused conflicts and undermined the harmony of the people as never before in history."

Public acceptance remained unknown. The coup occurred late Tuesday night, when Bangkok was under a major rainstorm, and few people were seen on the streets. "

for info:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/19Sep2006_news005.php

Ichiro

09-21-2006, 08:44 PM

22sep-bloomberg-$ drops on philly report (very good info!!!)

by ming zeng

"The dollar fell the most since July versus the euro and yen after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank this month.

``It is consistent with soft economic growth in the U.S.,'' said Matthew Kassel, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``When the Fed is done raising interest rates, the dollar will be sold off dramatically.''

The dollar weakened to $1.2787 per euro at 3 p.m. in New York from $1.2686 late yesterday, for its biggest loss since July 26. The U.S. currency fell to 116.35 yen from 117.46 yesterday, the largest decline since July 28.

Interest-rate futures show traders have erased expectations for another Fed increase and are starting to bet on a rate cut by year-end.

```The Fed is definitely done hiking rates,'' said Alan Kabbani, a senior currency trader at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``People are going to adjust their expectation as the U.S. economy continues to slow down. The dollar bullishness is over.''

Kabbani predicted the dollar will fall to $1.3450 per euro and 108.50 yen by the end of this year.

The U.S. currency has lost 6.8 percent against the euro and 0.7 percent versus the yen this year on speculation central banks in Europe and Japan will outpace the Fed in raising borrowing costs. The U.S. central bank paused last month after raising rates at 17 straight meetings since June 2004.

The yen also advanced on speculation China will allow faster gains in the yuan as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who favors a more flexible Chinese currency, meets China's Finance Minister Jin Renqing today in Beijing.

Asian currencies also rose on signs a coup this week in Thailand won't prompt investors to sell assets in the region. Army chief Sondhi Boonyarataklin took power without bloodshed and pledged to hold elections in October 2007.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=agL78k4SgNL0&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-22-2006, 01:37 PM

22sep-bloomberg-yuan makes biggest weekly adv

by jake lee

"China's yuan made its biggest weekly gain since a dollar peg ended last year as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his visit to Beijing had achieved a consensus on currency-market changes.

The yuan climbed to the highest since July, 2005, as Paulson said there were ``few differences on the principles'' of economic policies required, with timing being one. China has limited yuan gains to 2.4 percent since the peg, causing Democrat Senator Charles Schumer and Republican Lindsey Graham to propose tariffs on China's goods to reduce their nation's record trade deficit.

``The yuan will continue to gradually strengthen,'' said Joseph Kraft, head of the interest-rate products and foreign exchange division at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``Paulson has tried to promote an implementation of a more flexible currency policy that won't provide any shock to the economic system.''

``China is still the target of the U.S. and the pressure on them to allow more yuan gains is here to stay,'' said Carlos Cheung, chief currency dealer at Bank of East Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``With a much stronger economy, China can allow more strength without hurting it too much.''

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=akqoDfyD0IkE&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-22-2006, 01:43 PM

22sep-bloomberg-euro gains

by ron harui

"The euro rose against the dollar after traders said it breached a key historical price pattern that triggered automatic orders to buy the currency.

Europe's currency extended gains after climbing above its 100-day moving average of $1.2740 yesterday, according to Ian Gunner, a currency strategist at Mellon Financial Corp. in London. The euro is up 8.2 percent this year on speculation the European Central Bank will outpace the Federal Reserve in lifting borrowing costs.

``We'll see the euro go higher as upward momentum is building,'' said Adam Cole, a senior currency strategist in London at RBC Capital Markets. ``$1.30 is well within the bounds of possibility as a high for the remainder of the year.''

The dollar is poised for its biggest weekly loss in three months on speculation the Fed is done lifting borrowing costs. The U.S. currency slid the most since July yesterday after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank in September.

Rate Cut?

Interest-rate futures show traders are pricing in a 12 percent chance the Fed will cut its target for the overnight lending rate between banks by December, reversing 9 percent odds on an increase on Sept. 20.

``Expectations of a Fed rate rise are rapidly withering away, buffeted by weak U.S. economic data,'' said Satoru Ogasawara, an economist and currency analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo. ``I expect the already dollar-bearish sentiment to prevail.''

An end to the Fed's rate cycle may diminish the yield premium of dollar-denominated assets.

``The euro looks strong on expectations of the widening gap in interest rates between Europe and other regions, such as Japan,'' said Jun Kitazawa, head of foreign exchange in Tokyo at BBH Investment Services Inc., a unit of Brown Brothers Harriman. ``I expect the ECB to raise rates twice more this year.''

======VIP ===VIP========
The yen may gain as the yuan headed for the biggest weekly gain since a dollar peg ended last year as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his visit to Beijing had achieved a consensus on currency-market changes.
========VIP========VIP=========

The yuan climbed to the highest since July, 2005, as Paulson said there were ``few differences on the principles'' of economic policies required, with timing being one. China has limited yuan gains to 2.4 percent since the peg, causing U.S. legislators to propose tariffs on China's goods to reduce their nation's record trade deficit."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=atqWBFRod6gY&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-22-2006, 01:52 PM

22sep-bloomberg-currecny strategist:lehman says buy yen before economic summit

by min zeng

"Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. advised investors to add to wagers on yen gains before economic reports next week that may fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will lift interest rates again this year.

Statistics next week will probably show increases in industrial production and consumer prices, according to Bloomberg News surveys. Bank of Japan policy makers kept the key interbank overnight loan rate at 0.25 percent this month, after raising it in July for the first time in almost six years.

==========vip========
The BOJ will boost its benchmark another 0.25 percentage point this year and then to 1.5 percent by the end of 2007, according to Lehman. The yen will rise to 110 per dollar this year and to 95 per dollar 12 months later, the report said.

==========vip========
Japanese industrial production probably rose 1.9 percent last month after a 0.9 percent drop in July, according to a Bloomberg survey. The government releases the data on Sept. 29 in Tokyo. A separate government report that day will likely show national consumer prices climbed 0.9 percent in August from a year earlier, three times the July gain, a Bloomberg survey showed.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Sept. 17 that Japan's economy had ``finally recovered'' and growth will persist.

Lehman also increased its bets on a decline in the dollar as reports pointed to a slowdown in the economy and as the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 5.25 percent this month.

``The dollar looks a little vulnerable,'' McCormick said in the report.

The dollar yesterday fell the most since July versus the euro and yen after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank this month."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aAugq_4lyd3M&refer=currency

Oldcoin

10-02-2006, 05:01 AM

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's business confidence unexpectedly rose to a two-year high in September, increasing prospects that the central bank will raise interest rates by the end of the fiscal year in March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agNzBHEbpNLU&refer=home

Gilligan

10-06-2006, 03:51 AM

By Chen Shiyin and Makiko Suzuki

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell from a four-week high on concern recent gains were excessive. Canon Inc. and Li & Fung Ltd. led declines after climbing to records yesterday.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent to 130.10 as of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEtLakK3V2AU&refer=home

Gilligan

10-11-2006, 02:15 AM

Quake raises fears of 2nd N. Korea test
TOKYO - A strong earthquake shook northern Japan on Wednesday and the Japanese government said it had detected tremors, leading it to suspect North Korea had conducted a second nuclear test. However, Kyodo News quoted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as saying he had no information to confirm a second North Korea test had taken place.
http://news.yahoo.com/fc/World/North_Korea

Oldcoin

10-16-2006, 02:53 PM

Asian Stocks Climb to Six-Week High, Led by Sony on U.S. Demand
By Stuart Kelly

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose to a six-week high, led by exporters such as Sony Corp. and LG.Philips LCD Co. after U.S. consumer confidence and spending reports eased concern demand is cooling in the region's biggest export market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aG1v70L.CMTE&refer=asia

weatherweenie

10-16-2006, 07:23 PM

WASHINGTON - Air samples gathered last week contain radioactive materials that confirm that North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosion, National Intelligence Director John Negroponte's office said Monday.

In a short statement posted on its Web site, Negroponte's office also confirmed that the size of the explosion was less than 1 kiloton, a comparatively small nuclear detonation. Each kiloton is equal to the force produced by 1,000 tons of TNT.

Gilligan

10-17-2006, 12:12 PM

North Korea May Test Another Bomb, South Korea Says (Update7)

By Meeyoung Song

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea is aware of indications North Korea may be preparing to conduct a second nuclear explosion, after a report said U.S. satellites picked up activity at the site of the country's first test last week.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCKgBNfs0sY4&refer=home

Gilligan

10-17-2006, 12:16 PM

NKorea: Sanctions are declaration of war By JAE-SOON CHANG, Associated Press Writer

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea on Tuesday blasted U.N. sanctions aimed at punishing the country for its nuclear test, saying the measures amount to a declaration of war and that the nation wouldn't cave in to such pressure now that it's a nuclear weapons power.
The North broke two days of silence about the U.N. resolution adopted after its Oct. 9 nuclear test, issuing a Foreign Ministry statement on its official Korean Central News Agency.

"The resolution cannot be construed otherwise than a declaration of a war" against the North, also known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061017/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear

Show-me

10-17-2006, 12:34 PM

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/moab.htm

airlift

10-17-2006, 12:45 PM

Yesterday The USD reached an intraday high of 87.20 (.05 basis points higher than the 200 day moving average of 87.15); and then retreated to close at 86.98. Since the markets don't move in a straight line, and now we have additional problems with NK, which could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency in times of international turmoil and uncertainty. This is something to consider as we watch the I fund to determine a good entry point.

airlift

10-17-2006, 12:51 PM

I am looking for a better entry point to return to the I fund, but am considering going 100% G fund for a few days, even if I miss out on some upside. Currently, I am 30G, 70S, but preservation of capital is important in an overbought market. Moreover, October is a tricky month. Don't follow my fears, just take them into account! -- --Yesterday The USD reached an intraday high of 87.20 (.05 basis points higher than the 200 day moving average of 87.15); and then retreated to close at 86.98. Since the markets don't move in a straight line, and now we have additional problems with NK, which could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency in times of international turmoil and uncertainty. This is something to consider as we watch the I fund to determine a good entry point.

airlift

10-17-2006, 01:34 PM

Core PPI .6%, instead of the expected .2%. What do you think?

Ichiro

10-29-2006, 11:38 AM

29oct-fsu-fibonacci and other cycles converging in nov 06. We may see the end of the summer/autumn rally shortly after the election.

"We are going to examine some cycle work that suggests a trend turn is possible, maybe even likely, in November.

On January 14th, 2000, we saw the previous all-time nominal top in the Dow Industrials at 11,749.97, the Fibonacci 21st week from August 25th, 1999. The next major top occurred on April 12th, 2000, at 11,423.90, one week before a Fibonacci 34 weeks from August 25th, 1999. The next major top occurred on September 6th, 2000, one week before a Fibonacci 55 weeks from August 25th, 1999, at 11,401.19. Then, the next major top in the Dow Industrials occurred on May 11th, 2001 at 11,350.05, one week after a Fibonacci 89 weeks from August 25th, 1999. Then, the next major top occurred on May 17th, 2002, at 10,353.43, one week before a Fibonacci 144 weeks from August 25th, 1999. Then, the next major top occurred on February 19th, 2004 at 10,753.63, a precise Fibonacci 233 weeks from August 25th, 1999’s top. Next up is November 17th, 2006 +/- one week, a Fibonacci 377 weeks from August 25th, 1999, three weeks from now. This suggests we might see an end to the summer/autumn rally shortly after the election."

for info:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/1028.html

Ichiro

10-29-2006, 11:54 AM

28oct-bloomberg-japan's core consumer price gains slow

by mayumi otsuma

"Japan's consumer price gains unexpectedly slowed, prompting speculation the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates until next year.

``The BOJ is taking a forward-looking view,'' said Richard Jerram, chief Japan economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. It is saying ```we are worried that the growth will lead to some sort of inflation and imbalances in the future and therefore we are going to keep pumping rates higher.'''

Wages to Rise

The central bank will next meet to decide rates on Oct. 31, the same day it releases a semi-annual outlook on the economy and inflation. All but one of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the bank to keep rates on hold at the meeting."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJjPsZqgRizQ&refer=japan

`

Ichiro

11-23-2006, 10:25 AM

23nov-daily fx-How does the US dollar perform over the month of December?

byAntonio Sousa

"As many technical analysis traders will attest, patterns have and do form in the financial markets. The definition of Seasonality is that patterns occur predictably at given times of the year. Therefore it should come as no surprise then that there is also an interesting pattern in the US dollar’s behavior in the month of December.

US Dollar – Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

Since 2002, the U.S. dollar has depreciated against the Japanese yen during the month of December but over the past 20 years, the U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese Yen 9 out of 26 times, which indicates a very low seasonality factor. On average, the Japanese yen gained 3.41 percent during the positive months and lost 2.04 percent during the negative months."

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/061122/1164235705336.html?.v=1

Ichiro

11-23-2006, 10:28 AM

23nov-daily fx-Carry Trade Liquidation Hits the US DollarWednesday November 22, 3:59 pm ET

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

"US Dollar – Traders banked their four day rolls at the close of business yesterday and began a massive liquidation out of carry trades that sent the US dollar sliding to its lowest level against the Euro in 14 months. Just as everyone has settled into the notion that it would be a quiet trading week, volatility spiked and currencies began to move. Given that many US and Japanese traders have left early for the holidays, which is quite common this time of the year, the lack of significant liquidity is sure to have played a major role in today’s exaggerated price action. The dollar’s biggest drop was against the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen, both of which are very popular carry trades. Looking ahead, we want to warn that the combination of a depreciating dollar and a bleaker US economic outlook could resurrect talk of reserve diversification by central banks. This was the same case in 2004 when talk of reserve diversification was at its peak as the Euro surged from 1.22 to 1.3660 in a matter of 3.5 months. With the market so dollar bearish, any talk of reserve diversification could take the EUR/USD above 1.30. According to an interesting price study that we published as a special report today on DailyFX.com, over the past 20 years, the US dollar depreciated against the Euro 15 out of those 20 years during the month of December. The seasonality is even more apparent if we zoom into the past 12 years, where there were only two instances that the US dollar managed to rally in the last month of year. Meanwhile only minor economic data was released today. Weekly mortgage applications dropped last week by 3.7 percent, erasing most of the prior week’s gains. Jobless claims ticked higher, bringing the 4 week average to 317k, which signals that payrolls could be a bit softer in November. The final University of Michigan consumer confidence index was also revised down from 92.3 to 92.1 as consumers were slightly less optimistic about the current economy.

Japanese Yen – Carry trade liquidation was the main driver of today’s rally in the Japanese Yen. No meaningful economic data was released last night and the market completely shrugged off the Japanese Cabinet’s first downgrade of their economic assessment since December 2004. The government is worried about consumer spending which has long been one of Japan’s major economic problems. The prior weakness in the Yen should help to keep demand domestic while also boosting the export sector. We still believe that Japan is on the road to recovery and expect incoming economic data to reflect that. Japanese markets are closed tonight for the country’s Labor Thanksgiving Day."

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/061122/1164232768669.html?.v=1

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 09:19 AM

24nov-retuers-Euro shoots above $1.30 to 19-mth high, dlr tumbles

By Natsuko Waki

"The euro shot above $1.30 on Friday for the first time since April last year, extending sharp gains made this week after upbeat German data reinforced expectations the European Central Bank would raise interest rates into next year. The move higher was exacerbated by thin trading conditions, which helped trigger stop-loss buy orders above the psychological $1.30 level. The dollar tumbled across the board, hitting its lowest level against sterling in almost two years.
The dollar was down 0.3 percent at 115.91 yen <JPY=>, after a broad unwinding of carry trades pushed it lower against the low-yielding Japanese currency to 2-1/2 month low. "

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20061124:MTFH30484_2006-11-24_09-11-45_L24456333&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 09:22 AM

24nov-reuters--Nikkei falls as yen hits exporters, banks drop

By Aya Takada

"The Nikkei average closed 1.13 percent lower on Friday after hitting its lowest intraday level in two months, as shares of exporters such as Kyocera Corp. (6971.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) slid on concerns a higher yen would crimp earnings from abroad, and as banks and insurers fell after earnings reports.

Tsutomu Yamada, market analyst at kabu.com Securities, said corporate Japan's insistence on keeping full-year forecasts at conservative levels was partially responsible for the recent slide in Japanese stock prices.

"I think full-year profit forecasts are too conservative, and that has kind of misled investors in places," Yamada said. "

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061124:MTFH29581_ 2006-11-24_08-23-38_T41494&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage3

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 09:24 AM

24nov-reuters-GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar sinks, hitting stocks, boosting bonds

"The dollar plunged against major currencies on Friday, dragging down European stocks as the euro soared and boosting demand for short-tern European bonds.

The euro broke through a psychological barrier of $1.30 <EUR=> and was almost 1 percent higher against the U.S. currency on the day on rising European interest rate expectations."

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20061124:MTFH30415_2006-11-24_09-08-49_L24903116&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 10:01 AM

24nov-Bloomberg-Japanese Stocks Decline After Government Cuts View of Economy

By Makiko Suzuki

"Japanese stocks fell, led by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., after the government cut its evaluation of the economy for the first time in almost two years.

``The macro view of Japan is weak, creating bearish sentiment in the market,'' said Fumihiro Nakajima, who oversees about $1 billion at Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. in Tokyo. ``An expensive yen is always negative for exporters.''

``The economy is recovering, despite some weakness in consumption,'' the Cabinet Office said in its report for November. ``Private consumption is almost flat,'' it added, cutting the assessment for the first time since December 2004.

``There's worries in Japan about global and domestic consumption; that's the major negative in investors' minds,'' said Jon Easton, who manages about $200 million in Japanese equities at EN Asset Management in Tokyo.

Stronger Yen

The lender's profit declined because of ``booking of bond losses and slower growth of market-related transaction,'' Hironari Nozaki, a Tokyo-based bank analyst at Nikko Citigroup Ltd., wrote in a Japanese-language note dated Nov. 22.

The yen strengthened to as high as 116.04 against the dollar yesterday as rising U.S. jobless claims and a drop in consumer confidence in the world's largest economy suggested the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

The level was the highest since Sept. 7 on an intra-day basis. The yen recently traded at 116.35.

A stronger Japanese currency means the nation's exporters get less for their dollar-denominated sales while their products become less competitive."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aqUo4c_5mNGs&refer=japan

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 10:27 PM

25Dec-fsu-----USD-07 a final year?

by christopher laird

"This article is going to discuss the growing world discontent with the USD. Previously, although the US fiscal and trade deficits were in danger territory, the US trade partners were willing to continue to accumulate USD foreign reserves as they sold masses of everything under the Sun to the US.

They benefited from massive economic growth, and let the USD hot money circulate in their economies as washed hot money (hot money comes in as USD and then is changed into local currency or lent out in local currency – this causes lending and asset bubbles locally, creating a seeming endless prosperity bubble until that comes to the inevitable end and they have massive inflation or asset bubble collapses). Ultimately this hot money issue will decide the USD fate anyway, but there are sinister looking issues, particularly with China, that may cause a USD crisis in 07."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/1220.html

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 10:29 PM

25dec-fsu- boj is the key

by cpt hook

"With both Bernanke and Paulson heading to China soon, one should definitely not be surprised if the dollar ($) bounces higher in coming days considering they will want to make it appear the world likes a close relationship with the States. And let’s face it, we are talking about the China connection here, the one with America that keeps the global debt bubble afloat, which in turn feeds all the assets bubbles, making it the cornerstone of the ‘globalization model’ bankers around the world envision as our destiny. It’s the ‘new world order’ you see, seamless in terms of freely flowing capital and resources independent of both geographical and political constraints. Of course when oil goes to $150 per barrel at some point in the future, and politics brings geography back into a former light, this view of the world will be well tested, and likely fail with fiat currency regimes within process. But this is a discussion for another day.

Today we will focus on the $, because as Cliff Droke points out in his latest, it might bounce soon considering sentiment is pervasively bearish now. And although I cannot agree with Cliff on the $’s fortunes past the observation sentiment might be a bit too bearish right now for a continued slide, what you will be happy to know is it does not matter what it does moving forward in relation to influencing gold pricing. No, in fact it’s not the $’s movements that has a tight and direct correlation with the gold price, but Japanese equities believe it or not. And in spite of what some will have you believe, Japanese equities are depend on pressure the global economy’s pipe remaining strong, where when we circle back around to the primary point made in our opening remarks, in terms of fiat currency pricing, gold needs to see the US and China getting along trade wise, which will allow asset bubbles to continue growing within the current global trade model. "

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2006/1219.html

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 10:32 PM

25dec-fus--- the euro-yen corssfire

by jim willie

"The real currency story in recent months is the euro-yen cross, and not so much the euro-dollar headline breakout. In Japanese yen terms, the euro is on a tear. Aiding the euro is significant Asian diversification away from the USDollar by their central banks. The Arabs also are diversifying, as much into the pound sterling as the euro. They are experiencing massive anxiety attacks as Iraq disintegrates. Hence, on a combined basis a giant long-term euro breakout has been in progress, having begun in early summer. This euro uptrend has actually lasted 18 months, and began at the key date of July 2005. That date has been cited numerous times in the Hat Trick Letter, when King Abdullah took the Saudi throne, and when the Chinese announced a major shift in the yuan currency program to permit its rise. Both events shook the financial world."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2006/1219.html

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 10:40 PM

25dec-bloomberg---asian stocks rise

by ian sayson

"Asian stocks rose for a sixth week, the longest winning stretch in almost a year. Toyota Motor Corp. led gains as the yen fell to its lowest against the dollar in a month, raising the value of overseas sales.

Thailand's SET Index tumbled 7.6 percent, its biggest weekly slide since September 2001, after the country's central bank imposed controls on investments from abroad. "
for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=andnLlSliHLE&refer=asia

Bullishreturn

12-25-2006, 08:05 PM

China up big on Christmas day. Up over 3%.

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 08:37 PM

2Jan-bloomberg-China to Maintain `Stable Currency Policy' Next Year (Update1)

By Wing-Gar Cheng and Ying Lou

"China's central bank, under pressure from the U.S. and other Group of Seven nations to make the yuan more flexible, will in 2007 pursue a ``stable currency policy'' to promote economic growth.

The People's Bank of China ``will continue to strengthen and adjust financial control mechanisms, execute a stable currency policy, improve foreign exchange management and push for financial reforms and innovation,'' Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said today. ``We want to contribute to ensure stable and accelerated economic development.''

For info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agqlWH1lCM8U&refer=home

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 08:40 PM

2jan-bloomberg--Asian Stocks Rise for Seventh Week; Toyota, BHP Billiton Gain

By Darren Boey

"Asian stocks rose this week, rounding out a fourth consecutive year of gains. BHP Billiton and Toyota Motor Corp. advanced after better-than-expected U.S. home sales and consumer confidence reports.

``People are pretty optimistic right now, with the U.S. housing market doing better than we'd thought,'' said Choi Chang Hoon, who manages about $500 million at Woori Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. in Seoul. ``Exporters may see their earnings improve.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index this week rose 1.2 percent to 140.53. It was its seventh straight weekly advance, the longest winning streak in a year. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.7 percent. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aNnOGWE3HD5I&refer=asia

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 08:42 PM

2jan-Central Bank Dollar Reserves Edge Higher; Euros Slip (Update4)

By Matthew Benjamin and Simon Kennedy

"Central banks' holdings of dollars edged up in the third quarter even as the U.S. currency completes its fourth decline in five years against the euro.

Dollars accounted for 65.6 percent of reserves, up from 65.3 percent in the prior thee months, the International Monetary Fund said today in Washington. Euros slipped to 25.2 percent from 25.5 percent. Total reserves increased.

Central banks bought more dollars despite a slowing U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's decision to halt a two-year run of interest-rate increases. Tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank failed to raise the proportion of reserves held in the 12-nation currency. Dollar holdings are still down from 66.3 percent a year earlier and 72.6 percent in June 2001. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aACx1IPzfvQ0&refer=currency

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 08:44 PM

2jan-bloomberg-S. Korean Exports Rise 13.8% to $29.2 Bln in December (Update1)

By Kevin Cho and Seyoon Kim

"South Korea's exports rose in December as companies sold more goods including cars, chips and other goods.

Exports increased 13.8 percent to $29.2 billion from a year earlier after rising 18.7 percent in November, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said in Gwacheon, South Korea today. That compares with the median forecast of a 15.2 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists."

for info: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601013&sid=aPCqVbVT4wwE&refer=emergingmarkets

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 08:46 PM

2jan-bloombergWhy 2007 Is a Make-or-Break Year for China, Asia: William Pesek

By William Pesek

"Of all the questions facing Asia in 2007, none looms larger than what to expect from China.

The last 12 months proved more than ever how much Asia is relying on its second-biggest economy. Japan may be back and the U.S. economy is by far the world's largest, yet China's 10 percent growth is increasingly underpinning Asia's hopes.

China isn't likely to slide into crisis in 2007, though the number of issues that may come to a head is daunting. On the one hand, China needs to create millions of jobs to spread the benefits of rapid growth. On the other, it must slow things down to avoid overheating -- something it didn't do in 2006."

for info: -http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=agrKSFDgCHDo&refer=columnist_pesek

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 08:49 PM

2jan-bloomberg--Asia Must Pass Buffett's `Naked Swimmer' Test

By Andy Mukherjee

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- "Approaching the 10th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis, we must brace for a round of self- congratulatory backslapping.

In the months ahead, expect policy makers in the region to wax eloquent about how much more resilient their economies and capital markets have become since those dark days of 1997.

Is Asia really less vulnerable now? We won't know the answer to that question until the money that's betting on Asia's strength has undergone Warren Buffett's ``naked swimmer'' test.

The outward signs do support an optimistic appraisal.

The $1.6 trillion buildup in foreign-exchange reserves in Asia, excluding Japan, in the past decade makes the fortress appear better protected against speculators than in the past.

Yet, it's reasonable to ask if reserve acquisition beyond a point is good use of local taxpayers' money, and whether it can ever be a substitute for prudent economic policies, a strong banking system and the rule of law. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a6LS6yIE1mMM&refer=columnist_mukherjee

Oldcoin

01-01-2007, 10:35 PM

Inchiro, good to have you back. Haven’t seen you post for a while, hope all is well.

Show-me

01-01-2007, 11:15 PM

Ditto!

Inchiro, good to have you back. Haven’t seen you post for a while, hope all is well.

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:34 AM

Well, I got a 25% appreciation in my TSP, ETFs and my mutual funds in 2006. I think with the third year of the presidental cycle, I should do even better in 2007.

Ichiro

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:37 AM

3jan-reuters-GLOBAL MARKETS-HK stocks hit record high, Aussie dollar rules

By Kim Coghill

SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Stocks in Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore hit record highs on Wednesday as investors bet there was room to build on last year's rally while the Australian dollar extended gains as dealers bought high-yielding currencies.

Gold and oil were little changed but activity was subdued with many traders still away on holiday or awaiting minutes due later on Wednesday of the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting for potential clues on the outlook for interest rates and the dollar.

Markets were also waiting for the Institute for Supply Management's latest reading on U.S. manufacturing, due to be released later in the day, to help determine market direction.

Britain's FTSE 100 index .FTSE was seen opening down 2 to 14 points after gaining 1.45 percent on Tuesday.

"Look at the liquidity in the market," said Dale Tsang, managing director, securities trading division, Polaris Capital (Asia) Limited in Hong Kong.

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070103:MTFH38655_2007-01-03_06-57-31_SP51793&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:39 AM

3jan-reuters-European stocks -- Factors to watch on Jan 3

LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - "European shares are seen opening mixed on Wednesday, with investors awaiting key manufacturing data from across the Atlantic as the euro holds firm.

U.S. markets were shut on Tuesday to mourn former president Gerald Ford and Japanese markets were shut on Wednesday as part of the New Year holiday, meaning that there are few other cues available from other regions. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index, delayed from Tuesday, is the main economic data due, while investors are also keeping an eye on minutes from the Federal Reserve's last monetary policy meeting due for release later in the day."

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070103:MTFH38594_2007-01-03_06-52-38_L02933375&type=comktNews&rpc=44

The data will give indications about how the U.S. economy is doing and how hawkish monetary policy is likely to be.

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:41 AM

3jan-ap-Dollar Falls Against Major Currencies

By J.W. Elphinstone, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- "The dollar fell against other major currencies Tuesday during thin holiday trading and ahead of key economic reports this week.

The euro bought $1.3276 in afternoon New York trading, up from $1.3163 late Friday in New York. Exchanges were closed on Monday due to the New Year's Day holiday.

The European currency is now used by 13 countries after Slovenia adopted the euro on Monday.

The British pound also rose to $1.9729, up from $1.9613 on Friday. The dollar weakened against the Japanese currency, slipping to 118.85 yen from 118.90 yen on Friday.

"The real money players globally have not come back from the holidays yet. We'll start to see some real flows tomorrow, Thursday and Friday," said Michael Woolfolk, a senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York. "We're dollar negative today, but I don't think that's any leading indicator for the rest of the week.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070102/dollar.html?.v=7

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:45 AM

3jan- Daily FX-US Dollar Sells Off on First Trading Day of 2007

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist s

US Dollar

"2007 has started with a bang even though the US equity markets were closed for the National Mourning Day. After at least a week of compressed volatility, we have finally seen a breakout in the currency market as the US dollar came under severe selling pressure. Traders are telling the market that they do not want to be long dollars ahead of the busy data week. There was originally a lot of important data due for release today, but that is now pushed out to Wednesday. Tomorrow we are expecting not only the manufacturing ISM survey, but also one of the “leading indicators” for December payrolls, which is the ADP Employment index. ISM and payrolls are this shortened trading week’s most important economic releases. The ADP report is projected to forecast a smaller payroll gain in December than in November. The size of the surprise, if any could set the tone for trading until we see the actual payrolls report on Friday. We would need to see very strong payroll growth to reverse the hold that dollar bears have on the market right now. "

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070102/1167773729925.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:49 AM

3jan-bloomberg-Asian Stocks Fall From Record; Thai Shares Drop After Bombings

By Chen Shiyin and Chua Kong Ho

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "Asian stocks fell, led by Thai shares after deadly bomb attacks added to investor concerns following a military coup and the imposition of currency controls. Thai Airways International Pcl and Bangkok Bank Pcl slumped.

``The latest bombings in Thailand have created even more uncertainty,'' said Teng Ngiek Lian, chief executive officer at Target Asset Management in Singapore, which manages $1.6 billion. ``Tourism-related stocks will be the worst-hit. Banks and consumer stocks will be affected as well.''

South Korea's Kospi index declined after the government predicted that exports, the mainstay of the economy, will cool. Samsung Electronics Co. and Korea Electric Power Corp. fell following analyst downgrades. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. led Australian shares lower after a cyclone disrupted output. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aCQsyot6dHa4&refer=asia

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:52 AM

3jan-Yen May Rise on Rates, Say Banks Who Anticipated Drop (Update4)

By Agnes Lovasz and Ye Xie

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- "Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., Barclays Plc and Investors Bank & Trust Co., among the handful of firms that correctly predicted last year's drop in the yen, say the currency will rebound as Japanese interest rates rise.

The yen may jump 8 percent to 109 against the dollar in 2007, the most in three years, and climb for the first time since 1999 versus the euro, according to the median of forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of 40 analysts.

Economists estimate the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at least twice by the end of March, after central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui told business leaders in a Christmas Day address that increasing wages may stoke inflation. Most strategists predicted a rally in the yen last year only to see hedge funds and Japanese investors spurn the currency for higher-yielding markets.

``We're looking for appreciation,'' said Osamu Takashima, chief analyst for global-market sales and trading at Tokyo-based Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the nation's biggest bank. He raised his year-end forecast to 110 to the dollar from 112 last month because ``Japan is in a tightening cycle.''

The yen rose to 118.82 per dollar at 4 p.m. in New York from 119.04 late yesterday. It fell 0.2 percent last week to 119.07 against the U.S. currency and lost 0.7 percent versus the euro after Fukui also said on Dec. 25 that consumer spending is ``somewhat weak.''

Rate Increases

``Our view is the yen will be at 110 by the end of the year,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``We see four interest-rate hikes this year.'' "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a3z5RR8AddBA&refer=japan

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:55 AM

3jan-fsu-THE ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN IN BONDS WARNS OF A RECESSION IN 2007
by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

"We believe the risks for Bondholders leans toward a rise in prices, and substantially declining long-term interest rates. This is frightening, as it means we are about to enter another recession, one that could be deeper than we have seen in a long time. Why do we see this as an increasing risk? Primarily what has changed is the development of a Symmetrical or hybrid Ascending Bullish triangle from 2002, shown below. Triangles are usually wave fours, so that means we have a wave five up coming after this pattern completes. Whether this pattern is a Symmetrical Triangle or is an Ascending Triangle, both are Bullish for prices. In the case of a Symmetrical, the trend leading into the triangle is the trend that will continue after it completes — in this case up. In the case of Ascending, they are almost always Bullish."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/1230.html

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 12:51 PM

3jan-ap- AP-Stock Futures Rise Sharply

Stock Futures Rise Sharply on 1st Trading Day of 2007; Dow Futures Are Up 68

LONDON (AP) -- "U.S. stock futures rose sharply to start the new year on Wednesday, as investors viewed strong sales data from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. over the weekend as a sign that the holiday shopping season was better than expected and also looked at a downturn in crude oil futures.

In a heavy day for economic data, monthly auto sales and a key manufacturing gauge are due to be released, as are minutes from the last Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting.

S&P 500 futures rose 7.7 points at 1,436.10 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 14.5 points at 1,789.50. Dow industrial futures rose 68 points."

For info:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/wall_street.html?.v=4

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 08:04 PM

4jan-ap- AP
Dollar Up Against Euro on ISM Strength

Dollar Up Against Euro After Positive U.S. Manufacturing Report

BERLIN (AP) -- "The dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday after a report detected unexpected strength in the U.S. manufacturing industry.

In afternoon trading in Europe, the continent's 13-nation currency bought $1.3188, down from $1.3276 in New York trading late Tuesday.

ADVERTISEMENT
The British pound dropped sharply, trading at $1.9528, down from $1.9729. The dollar also gained to 119.44 yen from 118.85 yen late Tuesday.

The dollar gained after a survey found that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in December, reversing the previous month's contraction.

The Institute for Supply Management's December index came in at 51.4, compared with a consensus forecast of 50.0 and November's 49.5. A reading above 50 signal expansion, while one below indicates a contraction."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/dollar.html?.v=4

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 08:07 PM

4jan-bloomberg-U.S. Stocks Drop After Fed Minutes; Energy Shares Slide on Oil

By Michael Patterson

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) --" U.S. stocks reversed course and dropped on their first day of trading this year as a tumble in oil prices sent energy shares lower, while comments from the Federal Reserve dimmed the prospects for an interest-rate cut.

Exxon Mobil Corp. led the decline as crude oil had its biggest plunge in 20 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index erased its gain following the release of the minutes of the Fed's Dec. 12 meeting, at which policy makers concluded the risk that inflation would fail to slow was ``the predominant concern.''

``That language of inflation being the primary concern effectively threw cold water on any imminent rate cuts,'' said Jack Ablin, who helps manage $50 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``That's certainly unwelcome news for stocks.''

The S&P 500 slipped 6.56, or 0.5 percent, to 1411.74 as of 2:50 p.m. in New York. The benchmark earlier climbed as much as 0.8 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 15.25, or 0.6 percent, to 2400.04. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aggiuNUrIl3A&refer=home

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 08:30 PM

4jan-bloomberg-Oil Falls the Most Since April 2005 as Mild Weather Cuts Demand

By Mark Shenk

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "Crude oil in New York plunged the most in 20 months as mild U.S. weather curbed heating demand and traders speculated that fuel supplies increased.

Home-heating demand in the Northeast, the region responsible for 80 percent of U.S. heating-oil use, will be 43 percent below normal through Jan. 10, said forecaster Weather Derivatives. U.S. fuel stockpiles probably rose last week, according to the median of responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices are heading for the biggest one-day decline since April 27, 2005.

``The entire focus is on the weather,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. ``It looks like it will be at least mid-January before we get any hint of real cold weather in the Northeast.''

Crude oil for February delivery fell $2.80, or 4.6 percent, to $58.25 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $58.12, the lowest since Nov. 20. Oil is down 7.8 percent from a year ago. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQmSRD3VgcdA&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 08:33 PM

4jan-bloomberg-Pound Has Biggest Daily Drop Since 2005: World's Biggest Mover

By Gavin Finch

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "The U.K. pound fell against the dollar, the biggest fluctuation of any currency today, on speculation an earlier rally to the strongest in almost a month already reflected prospects for another interest-rate increase.

The currency had its biggest daily drop versus the dollar in almost 14 months after a report yesterday showed manufacturing growth weakened in December to the slowest pace in nine months. Traders last month cut bets the pound will gain, after it reached a 14-year high against the U.S. currency, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

``Sterling looks very fully valued, and that in the extreme,'' given the interest-rate outlook, said Jeremy Stretch, senior currency strategist at Rabobank Groep in London.

The pound fell against all 16 of the most actively traded currencies, trading at $1.9495 at 4:30 p.m. in London after earlier touching $1.9490, from $1.9737 yesterday. Against the euro, the pound was at 67.54 pence from 67.25 pence."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aQt.iT7rcpGA&refer=uk

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 03:48 AM

6jan-Japan, U.S. warn N. Korea on nuke tests

By HANS GREIMEL, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 59 minutes ago

TOKYO - ""Japanese and U.S. officials warned Friday of tougher measures against
North Korea if the isolated communist nation conducts a second nuclear test.

Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice said that a second nuclear test "no doubt would deepen its isolation."

Rice and
South Korea's foreign minister, Song Min-Soon, agreed at a news conference in Washington that their governments want negotiations on North Korea's nuclear program resumed.

"If North Korea is prepared to return in a more constructive spirit" the talks could be reopened fairly soon, Rice said. But she added, "We know of no substantive response from the North Koreans."

The remarks came amid U.S. media reports that Pyongyang has appeared to have readied for another nuclear test and that the preparation steps were similar to those taken before its first nuclear detonation on Oct. 9. But Japanese and South Korean officials have not reported any signs that the North was preparing for another test.""

for info:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070106/ap_on_re_as/japan_nkorea

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 03:51 AM

5jan-reuters-Emerging debt-Prices fall on interest rate woes
Fri Jan 5, 2007 5:13pm ET

By Walter Brandimarte

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) -"" Emerging sovereign bonds gave back part of their recent rally on Friday after a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report led investors to reduce their expectations of interest cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

A continued fall in commodities prices also weighed on Latin American markets despite a 1-percent recovery in crude prices, after losses of 9 percent during the previous two sessions.

Emerging debt returns fell 0.42 percent on average, erasing all of their gains year-to-date, according to the benchmark JP Morgan's EMBI+ index <11EMJ>. Bonds gained about 10 percent in 2006. ""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070105:MTFH49975_2007-01-05_22-13-19_N05155738&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 03:54 AM

5jan-daily fx-- Daily FX
Dollar Surprise As NFPs Shirk Detractors
Friday January 5, 2:52 pm ET
By John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com

""The long awaited US payrolls number offered the surprise that volatility traders were expecting. However, as the monthly figures continue to stabilize around 100,000 new hires a month, the question arises whether such a tepid indicator will still draw the crowds should similar prints be in the cards for the future.

Price action following today’s employment numbers was tame relative to what has been seen in the past. Against the euro, the dollar pushed 80 points ahead, before quietly settling just above 1.2980 support. Seeming to fall back into its congestive behavior, the USDJPY initial move totaled 55 points and lost upward momentum around 119. Unsurprisingly, the GBPUSD produced the biggest move for the day in a 95-point initial drop to trade around 1.93. Finally, USDCHF cleared 1.23 with its 70-point advance though 1.24 proved to be insurmountable with Friday’s thinning liquidity.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070105/1168030363416.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 03:59 AM

6jan-FOREX-Jobs data help extend dollar rally to third day
Fri Jan 5, 2007 4:18pm ET145

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - ""The dollar gained for a third day on Friday after a surprising report on U.S. jobs growth in December led investors to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rates cut in the next six months.

The euro plunged to a six-week low against the dollar after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy generated 167,000 new jobs in December, well above market expectations for a rise of 100,000. For more, see

"For the time being, with this reasonable number that you have, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut is off the table," said John McCarthy, vice president of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York. "That's lending a bit of support to the dollar."

Several analysts said they are not expecting the Fed to cut interest rates from the present level of 5.25 percent any time soon, especially since the data also showed the largest rise in average hourly earnings in eight months.

Robust job growth, coupled with upward pressure on hourly wages, will likely keep the Fed concerned enough about inflation to leave its key interest rate on hold for at least several months to come, analysts said.""

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070105:MTFH49109_2007-01-05_21-18-01_N05429826&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 02:14 PM

7jan-fsu- THE WORLD AT A GLANCE-Global Economic Growth to Continue in 2007
by Monty Guild
Guild Investment Management, Inc.
January 4, 2007

""World economic growth for last year is a portent of growth for 2007.

In our opinion, world economic growth rates in 2007 will be much like 2006. The U.S. and Canada grew a little slower, and Europe a little faster, China and India grew very fast. China grew over 10% in 2006, and four countries total; China, India, Argentina and Venezuela grew at over 8%. Never have we seen economies of large countries grow like that.

If a country’s economy is growing at 8%, the better companies in that country can grow their earnings at a much faster 20 to 30% rate.

I look for more of the same in 2007. In addition, Eastern Europe may surprise many, as they start to grow faster than many had thought possible.

ON THE WHOLE, DECENT AND RESPECTABLE GROWTH WORLDWIDE IN 2007

For 2007, our estimates for real GDP (gross domestic product after removing inflation) for each country/region are as follows:
Europe
United Kingdom 2.5%
Scandinavia 3.5%
Switzerland 2.7%
E.U. Countries 2.4%
Asia
Japan 1.7%
China 10.0%
India 8.0%
Other Asia 6.6%
North and South America
Latin America 4.0%
United States 2.2%
Canada 2.4%

WHAT DO THESE GROWTH RATES MEAN?

Basically, we are looking for ok economic growth for the world, and much better than ok growth for China, India, Eastern Europe much of Asia. The growth in Western Europe and North America should also be ok.

The strategy should be to wait for corrections, and buy when others are pessimistic. The media will continue to beat the drum that the U.S. economy and market are doing stunningly well. This is true in the short run, however for the last few years this is not true. The reality is that the S&P 500 has gone nowhere for six and 1/2 years, the Dow Jones Index is up only a few percent over the same amount of time, and the NASDAQ Composite is still down 40% from its highs in early 2000.

The last few months have been good, and the last 3 years acceptable, but the beating that the market took from 2000 to 2002 is still affecting many U.S. stocks.

Foreign markets have significantly outperformed the U.S. since 2000, and in our opinion will continue to for the next few years. With foreign markets, there will, be plenty of volatility, and we plan to buy on the dips.

The U.S. market should be ok, but not great. The market and economy may weaken and bottom in the middle part of the year, and be followed by a modest recovery. Also, housing will probably recover in the later part of 2007.""

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/guild/2007/0104.html

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 02:17 PM

7jan-fsu-EURO KEY TO US$ DECLINE
by Jim Willie CB
January 5, 2007

""The USDollar decline remains in progress, the one which began when the United States citizenry and its Wall Street aristocrats observed the great eating orgy known as Thanksgiving. Nothing can stop a holiday where Americans make eating the order of the day. All else sits still, even markets. The USDollar began its breakdown then, and it continues. The past week only served to provide a correction to the breakout. Technicians call it a revisit to the point of breakout. Some offer that it is akin to a man emerging from a bathroom window. He sticks his head out first, then pulls back in. Next is emergence of the entire upper torso to be followed by the entire body afterwards. In this setting, the euro head moved back inside the bathroom. Next is the continuation of the foreign currency uptrend, with more uplegs, led by the euro and sterling. The yen is the wild card.

A starkly plain fact of economic life is that a USDollar correction contradicts all claims of a USEconomic recovery. Instead, it screams “RECESSION” and confirms the inverted Treasury Yield Curve. The slump in the energy and copper market also testifies to the recession underway. Don’t look to the Banking Stock Index BKX for guidance, since those guys are way too competent to miss speculative opportunities to make big money. The spread trades (to profit off yield differentials) and the carry trades (to do the same within different currencys) offer the big banks plenty of opportunity to pick low fruit for profit. They are most likely tipped off by Goldman Suchs after they have their positions in place, with an “all clear” on absent risk. The magnets for investment in the last twelve months have been outside the United States all year long, another signal of USDollar unattractiveness.

FIRST STAGE OF USDOLLAR BREAKDOWN

Much talk has floated like verbal vomit about the benefit to US exporters from a lower USDollar. If so, then the net benefit to the USEconomy would show up in a remedied trade gap. This is mere material suitable for promotional literature at Wall Street firms, surely not fit in our world. One needs a manufacturing base to pull off that stunt. Not happening. We still import much more than export, as any recovery is founded upon imported goods purchased in both retail consumption and foreign made equipment. Import growth has superceded export growth since 2003. Also, multi-national firms will enjoy favorable currency translation of operations, but that encourages more jobs shipped overseas. To be sure, Caterpillar and Boeing will benefit from currency translation. Talk of benefits is pure political pablum and Wall Street deceptive spin. Any market correction to the obscenity whereby the United States demands 80% of world capital will NOT come with any benefits, only pain, crisis, financial loss, and disruption. Probably war too.

When the buck broke down in thin holiday trading during the week of Thanksgiving, the real story was with the major international currencies. The euro, swissy, aussie, and sterling all jumped markedly, enough to grab headline news. The USDollar breakdown, plunge, steep decline, severe adjustment shook the global financial world and captured its attention in loud manner. The intractable imbalances are not resolvable, and will present a clear & present danger for years to come. What happened in late November was the first of a great many earthquakes in a long sequence whose trade and debt imbalances serve as tectonic plate gaps rubbed raw by destructive foreign policy discourse amidst power games. The earthquake event six weeks ago made all the more urgent the economic summit meeting in China. The summit might buy more time, but will not in any way fix anything. The main outcome will be for more Wall Street profiteering. More IPO’s ar