Asian News [Archive] - Page 4

Ichiro

09-01-2006, 11:46 AM

1sep-dailyfx-$ looking ahead to ism and payrolls

by kathy lien

"Japanese Yen

"According to recent data, the Japanese economy has been getting progressively worse. Overnight, industrial production dropped by 0.9 percent against the market’s forecast for 0.7 percent growth. Housing starts also fell by a much larger 7.5 percent while construction orders dropped by 20 percent. In the context of such large disappointments, it is hardly surprising that small businesses have actually turned pessimistic on the outlook for the Japanese economy. The weaker economic data makes it even more unlikely for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates anytime soon. This means that in order for the Yen to reverse its recent slide, we would need to see either a sharp dollar sell-off or another revaluation announcement from China."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/060831/1157063800054.html?.v=1

Ichiro

09-01-2006, 11:49 AM

1sep-cnnmoney-stock futures up slightly

""Everyone is comfortable with the moderate employment growth being forecast," said John Silvia, chief economist for Wachovia. "But given where the consensus is on jobs, anything weak would suggest the economy is weaker, and investors will be nervous about corporate earnings ahead."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/060901/090106_stockswatch.html?.v=2

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 08:52 PM

2sep-dailyfx-us$ no more hike this year per fed fund futures

" Fed fund futures are pricing in a less than 20 percent chance of another rate hike this year. Nothing in the reports had what it takes to push us out of the 1.2750-1.2925 trading range that we have been trapped in since the beginning of the month. Looking at next week’s calendar, aside from non-manufacturing ISM and the Beige Book report, there is little US data. However the beginning of a new quarter and the return of traders from their summer holidays could still lead to some new positioning that could drive market activity. "

for info:http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar___No_More_1157144223916.html

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:02 PM

2sep-dailyfx-euro stablizes ahead of nfp

by boris shclossberg

"The EUR/USD recovered the 1.2800 figure in steady overnight trade as economic data generally confirmed Mr. Trichet’s view that the 12 member region is in the midst of a sustainable recovery and will likely see further monetary tightening as the year comes to a close. PMI Manufacturing slipped a notch printing at 56.5 against 57 expected as higher oil prices and a higher currency weighed slightly on demand in July. However, the gauge of industrial activity in the Euro-zone remained materially above the 50 boom/bust level indicating that the sector should continue to contribute to overall growth."

for info:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Euro_Stabilizes_Ahead_of_NFP_1157107121160.html

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:07 PM

2sep-recuters-tough ecb talk raises specter of rates over 3 pct.

"Tough talk from the European Central Bank and its upgrade to growth and inflation forecasts have raised the specter that ECB interest rates could peak above 3.5 percent now priced in by financial markets."

for info:

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2006-09-01T153319Z_01_L01637772_RTRUKOC_0_US-ECONOMY-ECB-RATES.xml

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:12 PM

2sep-bloomberg-asian stocks rise this week on us growth.

by micheal tsang

"Asian stocks gained this week after reports indicated the U.S. economy is expanding at a pace that will sustain demand for the region's goods without fueling inflation. Exporters such as Nintendo Co. and Acer Inc. gained."

"It looks like the U.S. is headed for a soft landing, with less need to worry about inflation than we thought,'' said Kim Jun Ki, who manages about $1 billion in equities at Hanwha Investment Trust Management Co. in Seoul."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=as1_bFzygB4w&refer=asia

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:16 PM

2sep-japn stocks retreat on concern economy is cooling

by makiko suzuki

" Concern that recent stock market gains were excessive contributed to today's decline. The Nikkei rose 4.4 percent in August, while the Topix climbed 4 percent, both posting their biggest monthly advances since March."

``Some gains in the past were not supported by fundamental reasons,'' said Hiroshi Chano, who helps oversee $6.7 billion at Yasuda Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``I'm still not sure investors' confidence over the second half is big enough to push shares higher.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=atW6GVlE1Ero&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:22 PM

2sep-bloomberg-$ advances after us employers hadd more jobs in aug

by deborah finestones

"The dollar rose against the euro after a government report showed the U.S. added more jobs than expected last month, bolstering speculation the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again this year."

" International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato told reporters today China needs a currency that reflects the quickest pace of growth in a decade. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson may ask China to increase the yuan's value when he visits this month. A stronger yuan makes exports from Japan, its largest trading partner, more competitive."

"There's talk China may increase the value of the yuan,'' said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. ``This would push the yen higher.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a8nOUQa8vJBk&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:36 PM

2sep-fso-rydex ratio implies prices iwll go higher

by carl swelin

"After the decline that lasted from the beginning of May to mid-June, a second bottom was made in July, from which the current rally emerged. Both the bottoming process and the rally have been rough and tedious, causing a lot of anxiety among market participants, and resulting in strong, persistent bearish sentiment. This is clearly visible on our first chart of Rydex Cash Flow analysis."

for info:http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2006/0901.html

Ichiro

09-02-2006, 09:39 PM

2sep-fsu-the technical palette (for the new investors)

by david petch

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2006/0901.html

Ichiro

09-03-2006, 09:03 PM

3sep-cnnmoney-bond edge higer on weak economic reading'$ falls (this will benefit the F fund)

"the 30-year bond rose 2/32, or $0.63 on a $1,000 note, to yield 4.87 percent, down from 4.88 percent in the previous session. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions."

For info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/060901/090106_bonds.html?.v=3

Ichiro

09-03-2006, 09:09 PM

3sep-reuters-us stoncs may climb after labor day

by vivianne rodrignes

"Now that everybody is coming back, we are going to see the real impact on the stock market of all the data that has been released in the past couple of days," said Alexander Paris, an economist and market analyst for Barrington Research, in Chicago. "Some of the reports showed a drop in consumer confidence, while other indicators came in better than expected. Bottom line is: The Fed has no reason to raise rates in September and that may help stocks."

For info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060903/column_stocks_outlook.html?.v=1

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 12:30 AM

4aug-ci-the yield curve as a predictor of us recessions

by aruturo estrella

for info:http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 08:09 AM

4sep-retuers-yen gains on strong data

by nanomi tajutsu

"The yen has struggled due to soft data on consumer prices and industrial output, which pushed it to a record low against the euro last week, but it got a reprieve on Monday after data showed Japanese firms increased capital spending by 16.6 percent in the April-June quarter compared with a year earlier."

"Another factor supporting the yen was an enormous build-up in short positions in the currency, suggesting that the yen could get a lift if traders decide to unwind positions."

"The dollar has stalled, and today's data was fairly strong, so this could be an opportunity to pull back on the short yen positions that have been piling up," said a trader at a U.S. brokerage in Tokyo."

for info:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060904:MTFH89029_2006-09-04_05-58-00_T355395&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 08:11 AM

4sep-ap-euro rises against $

"The dollar lost ground against the three major currencies on Friday even after the latest snapshot of U.S. employment came in better than expected.
"

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060904/euro_dollar.html?.v=1

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 08:17 AM

4sep-bloomberg-bank of america sees yen rising

by kosuke goto

"The yen may rise starting this month on speculation finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations will reiterate their call for stronger Asian currencies, according to Tomoko Fujii, a strategist at Bank of America N.A."

"``Traders seem not to have fully factored in this month's key event risks for the dollar-yen,'' said Fujii at Bank of America in Tokyo. ``The issue of global imbalances, featured by China's trade surplus and the U.S. current-account deficit, will certainly appear on the agendas of the G-7.''

"The yen may rise to 112 against the dollar by year-end, Bank of America forecasts, a level not breached since June 5. Japan's currency gained to 116.43 per dollar as of 7:45 a.m. in London, the biggest advance in five weeks, from 117.09 on Sept. 1 in New York."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aSGKIvPLIUxs&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-04-2006, 08:21 AM

4spe-bloomberg-uuan rises

by chirsitna soon

" Traders have increased bets, based on prevailing government policy, on how much the yuan will climb in the next three months, according to forwards contracts. They imply the yuan would strengthen to 7.8818 in December, if freely traded, from a Sept. 1 three-month rate of 7.8945."

for info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aGGFS3l.KU.E&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-06-2006, 10:40 AM

6sep-bloomberg-uen climb as fukui may signal rate increase

by kabir chibber

``Overseas funds are buying the yen,'' said Satoshi Tate, a senior vice president of the foreign-exchange division in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest lender by assets. ``There's speculation the BOJ Governor may not be so dovish'' after the meeting ends on Sept. 8."

``The Japanese economy remains firm, exemplified by strong capital spending,'' said Yuji Kameoka, a senior economist and currency analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research, a unit of Daiwa Securities Group Inc., Japan's second-largest brokerage. ``I still expect the bank to raise rates as early as November.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=home&sid=aBguuvgy0RlM

Ichiro

09-07-2006, 11:09 AM

7sep-retuers-yen, on g7 agenda, jumps vs $

by sujata rao

"Thomas Mirow told reporters in Berlin the "yen had clearly weakened against the euro and the dollar" -- an issue that would be discussed at the mid-September meeting in Singapore.

Analysts said the comments reflected euro zone governments' unease about the euro's strength against the Japanese currency."

for info:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060907:MTFH73157_ 2006-09-07_10-23-23_L07863683&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage3

Ichiro

09-07-2006, 11:12 AM

7sep-reuters-nikkei posts biggest pct fall in month'

by risa maeda

"Tatsuo Nishimura, portfolio manager at Meiji Dresdner Asset Management, said the Tokyo market has been ripe for a correction given that it hit a three-month closing high earlier this week.

"A market correction looks reasonable as the recent run-up has had little fresh fundamental news behind it," he said."

for info:http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060907:MTFH70751_2006-09-07_08-29-32_T124003&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 11:06 AM

8aug-reuters-us stock future rise as oil falls

"U.S. stock futures gained on Friday as oil slipped to a new five-month low and investors looked to end the week on a high after equities suffered in the previous two days on uncertainty over U.S. interest rate policy.

There is little on the earnings or economic calendars but Federal Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto is due to speak on inflation and monetary policy at 1400 GMT."

for info:http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-09-08T103035Z_01_L08625849_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-US-EUROPE.XML

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 11:10 AM

8aug-reuters-yen edges off

by sujata rao

"The yen hovered below a one-month peak against the euro on Friday after Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui said he did not expect the yen to be at the centre of talks at the upcoming Group of Seven meeting.

Fukui also said the BOJ would raise rates gradually which, analysts said, would keep the yen at a disadvantage in terms of interest rate differentials with the U.S. and euro area. "

for info:http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2006-09-08T110632Z_01_L0879510_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-4.XML

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 11:13 AM

8aug-cnnmoney-stock set for a higher open

"U.S. stocks were poised to rebound a little at Friday's open, as investors who have worried this week about interest rates prepare to get back into the market.

At 6:10 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher."

for info:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/08/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 11:22 AM

8aug-ap-bank of japan leaves rates unchanged.

"The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged Friday amid speculation about when the nation's central bank will next tighten credit as the economy recovers.

Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui provided few clues, merely saying that recent data showing weak inflation didn't change the bank's overall view on prices.

"We will adjust interest rate levels slowly," while keeping a close eye on economic and price moves ahead, Fukui told reporters at the end of the bank board's two-day meeting."

For info:http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060908/japan_central_bank.html?.v=10

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 11:28 AM

8aug-bloomberg-japan's consuimer prices to keep rising

by lily nomomiya

"Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said consumer prices will keep rising, reinforcing speculation that the central bank will increase interest rates before the end of the year."

``Prices are basically on a positive trend,'' Fukui told reporters in Tokyo today. Last month's revision to the way consumer prices are measured ``won't prompt us to change our basic stance.''

" The yen may strengthen to 115 per dollar next week, according to Mizuho's Fukui, who isn't related to the governor. The yen traded at 116.45 against the dollar at 11:09 a.m. in London, from 116.43 in late New York yesterday and 117.09 a week ago."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=avxq9iHepW1M&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 11:30 AM

8aug-euopean stocks rise in first time in 4 dyas

by adria cimino

"European stocks advanced for the first time in four days on speculation earnings and economic growth will increase even as interest rates move higher."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a9qE.Ux6SE1E&refer=europe

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 08:48 PM

9sep-dailyfx-japanese yen ready to take off

by jamie saettele

"117.05 needs to hold as resistance in order for the bearish scenario to play out. Bollinger bands on the daily are tight and favor a breakout; a move lower could be violent. The 10 day SMA is turning (negative slope), which favors the downside. Prices below the 9/5 low at 115.55 strengthen the above idea. "

for info:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/Dollar_Nears_End_of_Rally_1157713917826.html

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 08:56 PM

8aug-bloomberg-china will be proactive on yuan

by gemma dalye

"China, under pressure to let the yuan strengthen, will be ``more proactive and progressive'' in letting the market set the currency's value, Finance Minister Jin Renqing said."

" ``We could actually see a faster appreciation of the yuan over the next few months'' as China seeks to slow the economy, said Hans Goetti, managing director in Singapore at Citigroup Private Bank, which oversees about $1.5 billion in Asia. ``At the end of the day, China will decide, based on their domestic agenda, how fast they will move.''

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aMJlPRl0niCk&refer=asia

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 09:01 PM

8aug-japan's stocks rises as lending climbs, rates remain unchaged

by makiko suzuki

"Japanese stocks gained after bank lending climbed for a seventh straight month and the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged to bolster growth in the economy. "

"`Given the condition of the Japanese economy, the Nikkei appears cheap around 16,000,'' said Yoshihiro Ito, who helps oversee $689 million in assets at Okasan Capital Management Co. in Tokyo. ``Companies are expected to raise their profit forecasts next quarter and the BOJ decision not to increase rates is another factor aiding the market.''

"Japanese bank lending rose for a seventh month in August as companies sought cash to fund increases in capital spending. Loans climbed 1.9 percent in August from the same month a year earlier, a Bank of Japan report in Tokyo today showed."

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aisXxmGtdRbc&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-08-2006, 09:15 PM

9sep-fsu-a cautionary housing tale from japan (very interesting!!!-- house prices dropped by 50% in Japan several years ago-it is a long article but worth reading if you are interested in undertanding how a typical japanese person thinks when the housing price was dropping..)

by michael nystrom

for info:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0909.html

Ichiro

09-10-2006, 10:32 AM

10sep-bloomberg-yen posts biggest weekly advance

by min zeng

"European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet urged developing Asian nations such as China to allow their currencies to gain gradually, the Boersen-Zeitung reported yesterday, citing a guest column to appear in today's edition.

``Asian countries such as China and Japan will be pushed to allow their currencies to strengthen,'' said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington. "

for info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJgh6lmCIpAI&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-10-2006, 10:37 AM

10sep-opec concerned about oil price drop

by jim efstathion

"`If you have a recession, the price of oil will tank,'' Schenker said in Vienna. ``Right now we're pricing in a 30 percent chance of a recession next year. If there's a 30 percent chance of a recession, there's a 30 percent chance of sub-$40 oil.''

For info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adyRy6LDFOK0&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

09-12-2006, 12:45 PM

12sep-ap-trade deficit hits $68B

by martin crutsinger

"The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the July deficit jumped 5 percent from the June imbalance. Analysts had expected the deficit to worsen slightly, but the overall imbalance was worse than expected and surpassed the old monthly record of $66.6 billion set last October."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060912/economy.html?.v=2

Ichiro

09-12-2006, 12:48 PM

12sep-reuters-$ edges donw after record us trade gap

"The dollar slipped and then recovered on Tuesday after the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in July, as dealers shrugged off the data and focused on paring large bets against the greenback."

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060912:MTFH63739_2006-09-12_12-42-58_NYH000255&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-12-2006, 01:00 PM

12sep-bbc news-china trade surplus at new high

"The price of the yuan appreciation so far has been just too moderate and the trade surplus is related to structural problems," said Xiao Minjie, an economist with Daiwa Institute of Research.

"The US is likely to step up its pressure on China to let the yuan rise," he added.

The yuan has risen by less than 2% since being revalued in July 2005 after being tied to the dollar.

China's currency and its trade surplus are expected to be key issues at this week's World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meeting, in Singapore, which will focus on global imbalances in the world economy. "

for info:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5334076.stm

Ichiro

09-13-2006, 12:37 PM

13sep-bloomberg-yen rebounds

by ron harui

"The yen rebounded from a five-month low against the dollar after Bank of Japan board member Atsushi Mizuno said ``fine adjustments'' will continue to be made to interest rates.

Japan's currency snapped a three-day losing streak as Mizuno's comments in an interview published today fueled speculation the BOJ may lift rates a second time by December. Signs of slower growth and lower-than-forecast inflation spurred the yen to its biggest monthly drop this year in August.

``In light of what Mizuno said, the market may have to look at the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year,'' said Daragh Maher, a senior currency strategist at Calyon, the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA, in London. ``It's clearly a yen-positive signal.''

Maher expects the yen to advance to 112 versus the dollar this year."

for info:"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=ajZaY18aK9Gc&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-14-2006, 12:20 PM

14sep-reuters-euros firm....

by veronica brown

"The euro firmed against the dollar and yen on Thursday, but stayed in narrow ranges ahead of this weekend's G7 meeting and U.S. retail data later in the day that could yield further clues on the interest rate outlook.

Speculation has rippled through the market on the likelihood, or not, of the low yielding yen becoming a focal point at the gathering after a German finance ministry official said last week that its recent weakness would be discussed, spurring a rally in the Japanese currency.

"We have had a lot of comments about the G7, about China, about whether they will discuss the yen... If anything, the big unknown is how much criticism Japan will get, how much talk there will be about the yen," said Niels Christensen, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale in Paris."

for info:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20060914:MTFH41816_2006-09-14_11-46-07_L14175789&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

09-14-2006, 12:43 PM

14sep-ap-retial sales slow in august

by martin crutsinger

"The Commerce Department reported that the nation's retailers saw a tiny 0.2 percent increase last month following a much bigger 1.4 percent rise in July. It was the weakest performance since sales had actually fallen by 0.5 percent in June."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060914/economy.html?.v=2

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 06:53 AM

17sep-bloomberg-china pressued by g-7 to make currency more flexible

by rob delaney\

"China is set to come under renewed pressure today from the Group of Seven industrial nations to make its exchange rate more flexible as a way of easing international trade imbalances.

``We need to see more flexibility in the Asian currencies,'' Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in an interview yesterday as he prepared for talks in Singapore with his G-7 counterparts and central bankers.

How far to push China, which has become the world's fourth- largest economy, will be a key topic at today's G-7 meeting. An April decision by the group to step up its three-year campaign by calling for the yuan to appreciate sent the dollar tumbling."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aW5fATtId4Xg&refer=asia

`

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 07:02 AM

16sep-singapore reuters-imf sees strong asia growth

"Asia's economic output is likely to remain strong this year and in 2007, but monetary and fiscal policy will prove challenging during this period, the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday.

In a detailed report on Asia's economic outlook released ahead of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, the IMF projected a slight slowdown in export growth -- in a region where exports are the equivalent of between 40 and 200 percent of GDP -- but it said capital flows into Asia would remain robust. "

for info:

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gvv.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 07:08 AM

16sep-signaproe reuters-europe concerned about yen depreciation--g7 source
"
Europe is concerned about the recent depreciation of the Japanese yen and hopes that Japan will take at least verbal action to halt the trend, a G7 source told Reuters on Saturday.

"The yen has depreciated a lot and in the G7 statement there will be a reference to the strengthening Japanese economy which should be seen as a signal that the currency should appreciate," the source said. "

for info:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gvy.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 07:48 AM

16sep-singapore reuters-imf says supports gradual rise in japan interest rate

"Given the risk of slipping back into deflation and notwithstanding the fact that growth was quite strong ... the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates very gradually and continue to lag behind the curve," Dan Citrin, a senior adviser in the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, told a news conference in Singapore. "

for inof:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gwg.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 09:25 AM

16sep-singapore reuters-china comes under g7 fire for holding down yuan

by garvin jones

China came under pressure on Saturday to let its currency rise faster to ease imbalances in trade and capital flows that pose one of the biggest risks to global growth.

Finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the Group of Seven rich nations were set to repeat a call for Beijing, blamed by critics for holding the yuan down to boost its exports, to take the currency off the leash.

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"The communique singles out China just like in April," a G7 source told Reuters.

When they last met in Washington on April 21, the G7 said: "Greater exchange rate flexibility is desirable in emerging economies with large current account surpluses, especially China, for necessary adjustments to occur."

"for ifno:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43gxs.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 12:57 PM

17sep-reuters singapore-economic imbalances shared repsonsiblity-paulson

by glenn somerville

"U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Saturday that major industrial countries and key emerging economies like China share a responsibility to bring global economic imbalances under control.

Specifically, Europe and Japan need to undertake reforms that will boost their growth, said Paulson, who was attending his first G7 session as U.S. Treasury chief.

China is pivotal because, without a sharp rise in the yuan, its Asian neighbors will be reluctant to let their own currencies appreciate for fear of losing competitiveness."

for info:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43h0l.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 01:09 PM

16sep-yahoo singaore-g7 tells china unleash yuan

by yoko nishkawa

"The Group of Seven rich nations urged China on Saturday to let its currency rise faster to help ease perilous imbalances in trade and backed a rise in the yen to reflect Japan's strengthening economic recovery.

"Greater exchange rate flexibility is desirable in emerging economies with large current account surpluses, especially China, for necessary adjustments to occur," the G7 said.

"We noted that the exit from the zero interest rate policy and that its recovery is now broadly based -- we agree that the yen will reflect these developments," Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, told reporters.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck used similar language, suggesting a coordinated message: "The (Japanese) exchange rate should reflect these two developments."

Europe is wary of the yen's softness for fear that the euro will have to bear more of the burden of global currency adjustment. But Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, too, chimed in by saying the yen should mirror Japan's fundamentals.

China is pivotal because, without a sharp rise in the yuan, its Asian neighbors will be reluctant to let their own currencies appreciate for fear of losing competitiveness."

f"We noted that the exit from the zero interest rate policy and that its recovery is now broadly based -- we agree that the yen will reflect these developments," Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, told reporters.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck used similar language, suggesting a coordinated message: "The (Japanese) exchange rate should reflect these two developments."

Europe is wary of the yen's softness for fear that the euro will have to bear more of the burden of global currency adjustment. But Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, too, chimed in by saying the yen should mirror Japan's fundamentals.

for info:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060916/3/43h0c.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 08:28 PM

17sep-bloomberg-tanigaki says yen's drop vis euro has been rough (the yen will rally on Monday)

by lily ninomiya

"``The recent decline of the yen against the euro has been a little rough,'' Tanigaki told reporters after finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations met in Singapore today.

The yen reached a record low of 150.73 versus the euro on Aug. 31 and has dropped 6 percent this year, sparking criticism from European governments concerned it will sap their economic expansion by reducing the competitiveness of their exports.

The minister's comment will boost the yen, Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s London-based chief economist, predicted. ``Tanigaki is recognizing there is an issue about the yen,'' said O'Neill. ``The yen will rally on Monday.'' The yen wasn't mentioned in the G-7 joint statement.

Japan's recovery from deflation and the end of its zero interest rate policy ``must be reflected in the exchange rate,'' German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said today. Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said the ``large pickup is something that is very important, and the yen will naturally reflect this development.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aYIiJ4h0T9J0&refer=japan

I

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 08:48 PM

17sep-nikkei net-Japanese financial markets will be closed on Monday, Sep 18, a national holiday.

Pilgrim

09-16-2006, 10:03 PM

What does it mean if for the I fund if the Yen is traded on Monday and rallies strong against the dollar, but the Japanese stock markets are closed?

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 11:27 PM

Folks,

even if the japan market is closed on monday, the yen is still traded in the other international market such as in usa and europe. It will be quite interesting how much the yen and euros will appreciate against the dollar early next week. However, it will not appreciate much compared to the last g7 meeting earlier this year... I invested in the stock market for the past two decades and a half but I have never seen a roller coaster market like this year.

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 11:33 PM

17sep-fsu-market overbought but sentiment still favor bulls

by carl swelin

"The S&P 500 Index is approaching new 52-week highs, but there is short-term overhead resistance immediately ahead, and our primary medium-term indicators are becoming modestly overbought. Does this spell trouble for the bulls? Probably not. Overbought conditions are not necessarily a problem in a bull market, and there are still way too many bears for an important top."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2006/0915.html

Ichiro

09-16-2006, 11:36 PM

17sep-fsu-the chinese paradigm

by thomas au

Once again, President Bush’s Administration has been leaning hard on China to re-value its undervalued currency, the yuan. The Chinese nod politely and make some modest adjustments, but basically, the exchange rate between these two currencies will stay put for as long as Chinese, not American, monetary authorities can maintain it.

Raising the Yuan Would Make China’s the World’s Second Largest Economy

It would make sense to allow the yuan to rise to give a truer picture of China’s economy. Even I was surprised to read the other day that China’s GDP using purchasing power parity (rather than foreign exchange because the yuan is way undervalued), is about $9 trillion, versus $12 trillion for the U.S., and just over $2 trillion usin"g the official exchange rates."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/au/2006/0915.html

Ichiro

09-17-2006, 07:52 AM

17sep-yahoo singaproe-japn gets off lightly at g7 talk

"Japan got off lightly at a weekend meeting here of Group of Seven finance chiefs, where European ministers had hoped for a strong statement evoking the dangers of a weakening Japanese yen.

In the event, a final communique from the session Saturday, drafted by Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, made no mention of recent movements in the yen.

"Clearly, neither Japan nor the United States shares the European concern about the yen, which is continuing to depreciate," commented Antoine Brunet, an economist with the bank HSBC.

He said Japan "intends to take advantage of the still under-valued yen to build up the volume of its external surplus and protect its recovery."

The United States, he continued, is again anxious about inflation, with newly appointed Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson preferring "strong dollar rhetoric" to head off a weakening in the dollar and an increase in inflationary pressures."

for info: http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060917/1/43h8t.html

Ichiro

09-17-2006, 12:02 PM

17sep-yahoo singapore-yen set for volatile surge on post-7 jawboning

"Currency markets are bracing for the Japanese yen to push higher on Monday, as an apparently co-ordinated euro zone/Japanese effort to talk up the beleaguered currency at the G7 meeting is seen bearing fruit.

"I think you'll see a short-term, knee-jerk sell off in euro/yen on Monday when trading resumes, given the co-ordinated jawboning by Japanese and euro area finance ministers," RBC Capital Markets global head of foreign exchange strategy Monica Fan said.

"What you do notice is a conspicuous absence of euro/yen bearish comments from other G7 finance ministers ... The odds of this jawboning turning into FX intervention are negligible," she added.

Markets had been jittery going into the weekend meeting of powerful nations in Singapore after speculation on whether yen weakness -- which has seen it hit record lows against the euro -- would be discussed.

"Expect some degree of volatility in euro/yen, pretty much to the downside -- Tanigaki acknowledged the recent weakness of the yen, saying that recent moves had been 'rough', so we would expect quite a sharp move in euro/yen lower from Monday," Standard Charted head of FX strategy Callum Henderson said from Singapore.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note on the G7 gathering that remarks on the yen could mark the beginning of a turning point for the currency, which has lost more than 6 percent against the euro so far this year.

"The Japanese MOF (ministry of finance) may now be forced to shift lower its dollar/yen ranges from the current 105-125," Goldman Sachs said, adding: "The G7 outcome probably also means that MOF officials will have to drop the old mantra that a 'weakening Yen reflects Japan's fundamentals'."

for info:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060917/3/43hbk.html

Ichiro

09-19-2006, 07:37 PM

20sep-ap-stocks off after coup occur in thailand

by ellen simon

"Stocks dropped suddenly Tuesday after Thailand's military launched a coup against the country's prime minister.

Traders watching Thailand closely are certain to remember how trouble in the kingdom had worldwide implications in the past: The Asia currency crisis that erupted in 1997 began with the devaluation of the Thai baht, then snowballed into a currency crisis in emerging markets around the world.

The baht fell sharply Tuesday, as did Brazil's real, which also tumbled in the '97 crisis."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060919/wall_street.html?.v=25

Ichiro

09-19-2006, 07:54 PM

20sep-bangkokpost-coup d-etat in thaliand

"The army commander Gen Sonthi Boonyarataglin staged a coup d'etat Tuesday evening (Thailand time) and ousted the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

A so-called "Democratic Reform Council" declared itself in control and declared martial law nationwide. Terse announcements said it included the commanders of all three armed forces and the police. It said the coup was necessary to correct "unprecedented division in the country."

The Council said there seemed to be widespread corruption, and independent agenies were subverted by politicians, apparently a reference to the Thaksin government. "The national government through the current administration has caused conflicts and undermined the harmony of the people as never before in history."

Public acceptance remained unknown. The coup occurred late Tuesday night, when Bangkok was under a major rainstorm, and few people were seen on the streets. "

for info:

http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/19Sep2006_news005.php

Ichiro

09-21-2006, 07:44 PM

22sep-bloomberg-$ drops on philly report (very good info!!!)

by ming zeng

"The dollar fell the most since July versus the euro and yen after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank this month.

``It is consistent with soft economic growth in the U.S.,'' said Matthew Kassel, director of proprietary trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``When the Fed is done raising interest rates, the dollar will be sold off dramatically.''

The dollar weakened to $1.2787 per euro at 3 p.m. in New York from $1.2686 late yesterday, for its biggest loss since July 26. The U.S. currency fell to 116.35 yen from 117.46 yesterday, the largest decline since July 28.

Interest-rate futures show traders have erased expectations for another Fed increase and are starting to bet on a rate cut by year-end.

```The Fed is definitely done hiking rates,'' said Alan Kabbani, a senior currency trader at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``People are going to adjust their expectation as the U.S. economy continues to slow down. The dollar bullishness is over.''

Kabbani predicted the dollar will fall to $1.3450 per euro and 108.50 yen by the end of this year.

The U.S. currency has lost 6.8 percent against the euro and 0.7 percent versus the yen this year on speculation central banks in Europe and Japan will outpace the Fed in raising borrowing costs. The U.S. central bank paused last month after raising rates at 17 straight meetings since June 2004.

The yen also advanced on speculation China will allow faster gains in the yuan as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who favors a more flexible Chinese currency, meets China's Finance Minister Jin Renqing today in Beijing.

Asian currencies also rose on signs a coup this week in Thailand won't prompt investors to sell assets in the region. Army chief Sondhi Boonyarataklin took power without bloodshed and pledged to hold elections in October 2007.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=agL78k4SgNL0&refer=japan

Ichiro

09-22-2006, 12:37 PM

22sep-bloomberg-yuan makes biggest weekly adv

by jake lee

"China's yuan made its biggest weekly gain since a dollar peg ended last year as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his visit to Beijing had achieved a consensus on currency-market changes.

The yuan climbed to the highest since July, 2005, as Paulson said there were ``few differences on the principles'' of economic policies required, with timing being one. China has limited yuan gains to 2.4 percent since the peg, causing Democrat Senator Charles Schumer and Republican Lindsey Graham to propose tariffs on China's goods to reduce their nation's record trade deficit.

``The yuan will continue to gradually strengthen,'' said Joseph Kraft, head of the interest-rate products and foreign exchange division at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``Paulson has tried to promote an implementation of a more flexible currency policy that won't provide any shock to the economic system.''

``China is still the target of the U.S. and the pressure on them to allow more yuan gains is here to stay,'' said Carlos Cheung, chief currency dealer at Bank of East Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``With a much stronger economy, China can allow more strength without hurting it too much.''

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=akqoDfyD0IkE&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-22-2006, 12:43 PM

22sep-bloomberg-euro gains

by ron harui

"The euro rose against the dollar after traders said it breached a key historical price pattern that triggered automatic orders to buy the currency.

Europe's currency extended gains after climbing above its 100-day moving average of $1.2740 yesterday, according to Ian Gunner, a currency strategist at Mellon Financial Corp. in London. The euro is up 8.2 percent this year on speculation the European Central Bank will outpace the Federal Reserve in lifting borrowing costs.

``We'll see the euro go higher as upward momentum is building,'' said Adam Cole, a senior currency strategist in London at RBC Capital Markets. ``$1.30 is well within the bounds of possibility as a high for the remainder of the year.''

The dollar is poised for its biggest weekly loss in three months on speculation the Fed is done lifting borrowing costs. The U.S. currency slid the most since July yesterday after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank in September.

Rate Cut?

Interest-rate futures show traders are pricing in a 12 percent chance the Fed will cut its target for the overnight lending rate between banks by December, reversing 9 percent odds on an increase on Sept. 20.

``Expectations of a Fed rate rise are rapidly withering away, buffeted by weak U.S. economic data,'' said Satoru Ogasawara, an economist and currency analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo. ``I expect the already dollar-bearish sentiment to prevail.''

An end to the Fed's rate cycle may diminish the yield premium of dollar-denominated assets.

``The euro looks strong on expectations of the widening gap in interest rates between Europe and other regions, such as Japan,'' said Jun Kitazawa, head of foreign exchange in Tokyo at BBH Investment Services Inc., a unit of Brown Brothers Harriman. ``I expect the ECB to raise rates twice more this year.''

======VIP ===VIP========
The yen may gain as the yuan headed for the biggest weekly gain since a dollar peg ended last year as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said his visit to Beijing had achieved a consensus on currency-market changes.
========VIP========VIP=========

The yuan climbed to the highest since July, 2005, as Paulson said there were ``few differences on the principles'' of economic policies required, with timing being one. China has limited yuan gains to 2.4 percent since the peg, causing U.S. legislators to propose tariffs on China's goods to reduce their nation's record trade deficit."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=atqWBFRod6gY&refer=currency

Ichiro

09-22-2006, 12:52 PM

22sep-bloomberg-currecny strategist:lehman says buy yen before economic summit

by min zeng

"Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. advised investors to add to wagers on yen gains before economic reports next week that may fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will lift interest rates again this year.

Statistics next week will probably show increases in industrial production and consumer prices, according to Bloomberg News surveys. Bank of Japan policy makers kept the key interbank overnight loan rate at 0.25 percent this month, after raising it in July for the first time in almost six years.

==========vip========
The BOJ will boost its benchmark another 0.25 percentage point this year and then to 1.5 percent by the end of 2007, according to Lehman. The yen will rise to 110 per dollar this year and to 95 per dollar 12 months later, the report said.

==========vip========
Japanese industrial production probably rose 1.9 percent last month after a 0.9 percent drop in July, according to a Bloomberg survey. The government releases the data on Sept. 29 in Tokyo. A separate government report that day will likely show national consumer prices climbed 0.9 percent in August from a year earlier, three times the July gain, a Bloomberg survey showed.

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Sept. 17 that Japan's economy had ``finally recovered'' and growth will persist.

Lehman also increased its bets on a decline in the dollar as reports pointed to a slowdown in the economy and as the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 5.25 percent this month.

``The dollar looks a little vulnerable,'' McCormick said in the report.

The dollar yesterday fell the most since July versus the euro and yen after a report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia area unexpectedly shrank this month."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aAugq_4lyd3M&refer=currency

Oldcoin

10-02-2006, 04:01 AM

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's business confidence unexpectedly rose to a two-year high in September, increasing prospects that the central bank will raise interest rates by the end of the fiscal year in March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agNzBHEbpNLU&refer=home

Gilligan

10-06-2006, 02:51 AM

By Chen Shiyin and Makiko Suzuki

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell from a four-week high on concern recent gains were excessive. Canon Inc. and Li & Fung Ltd. led declines after climbing to records yesterday.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent to 130.10 as of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEtLakK3V2AU&refer=home

Gilligan

10-11-2006, 01:15 AM

Quake raises fears of 2nd N. Korea test
TOKYO - A strong earthquake shook northern Japan on Wednesday and the Japanese government said it had detected tremors, leading it to suspect North Korea had conducted a second nuclear test. However, Kyodo News quoted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as saying he had no information to confirm a second North Korea test had taken place.
http://news.yahoo.com/fc/World/North_Korea

Oldcoin

10-16-2006, 01:53 PM

Asian Stocks Climb to Six-Week High, Led by Sony on U.S. Demand
By Stuart Kelly

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose to a six-week high, led by exporters such as Sony Corp. and LG.Philips LCD Co. after U.S. consumer confidence and spending reports eased concern demand is cooling in the region's biggest export market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aG1v70L.CMTE&refer=asia

weatherweenie

10-16-2006, 06:23 PM

WASHINGTON - Air samples gathered last week contain radioactive materials that confirm that North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosion, National Intelligence Director John Negroponte's office said Monday.

In a short statement posted on its Web site, Negroponte's office also confirmed that the size of the explosion was less than 1 kiloton, a comparatively small nuclear detonation. Each kiloton is equal to the force produced by 1,000 tons of TNT.

Gilligan

10-17-2006, 11:12 AM

North Korea May Test Another Bomb, South Korea Says (Update7)

By Meeyoung Song

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea is aware of indications North Korea may be preparing to conduct a second nuclear explosion, after a report said U.S. satellites picked up activity at the site of the country's first test last week.
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCKgBNfs0sY4&refer=home

Gilligan

10-17-2006, 11:16 AM

NKorea: Sanctions are declaration of war By JAE-SOON CHANG, Associated Press Writer

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea on Tuesday blasted U.N. sanctions aimed at punishing the country for its nuclear test, saying the measures amount to a declaration of war and that the nation wouldn't cave in to such pressure now that it's a nuclear weapons power.
The North broke two days of silence about the U.N. resolution adopted after its Oct. 9 nuclear test, issuing a Foreign Ministry statement on its official Korean Central News Agency.

"The resolution cannot be construed otherwise than a declaration of a war" against the North, also known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061017/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear

Show-me

10-17-2006, 11:34 AM

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/moab.htm

airlift

10-17-2006, 11:45 AM

Yesterday The USD reached an intraday high of 87.20 (.05 basis points higher than the 200 day moving average of 87.15); and then retreated to close at 86.98. Since the markets don't move in a straight line, and now we have additional problems with NK, which could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency in times of international turmoil and uncertainty. This is something to consider as we watch the I fund to determine a good entry point.

airlift

10-17-2006, 11:51 AM

I am looking for a better entry point to return to the I fund, but am considering going 100% G fund for a few days, even if I miss out on some upside. Currently, I am 30G, 70S, but preservation of capital is important in an overbought market. Moreover, October is a tricky month. Don't follow my fears, just take them into account! -- --Yesterday The USD reached an intraday high of 87.20 (.05 basis points higher than the 200 day moving average of 87.15); and then retreated to close at 86.98. Since the markets don't move in a straight line, and now we have additional problems with NK, which could strengthen the USD as a safe-haven currency in times of international turmoil and uncertainty. This is something to consider as we watch the I fund to determine a good entry point.

airlift

10-17-2006, 12:34 PM

Core PPI .6%, instead of the expected .2%. What do you think?

Ichiro

10-29-2006, 10:38 AM

29oct-fsu-fibonacci and other cycles converging in nov 06. We may see the end of the summer/autumn rally shortly after the election.

"We are going to examine some cycle work that suggests a trend turn is possible, maybe even likely, in November.

On January 14th, 2000, we saw the previous all-time nominal top in the Dow Industrials at 11,749.97, the Fibonacci 21st week from August 25th, 1999. The next major top occurred on April 12th, 2000, at 11,423.90, one week before a Fibonacci 34 weeks from August 25th, 1999. The next major top occurred on September 6th, 2000, one week before a Fibonacci 55 weeks from August 25th, 1999, at 11,401.19. Then, the next major top in the Dow Industrials occurred on May 11th, 2001 at 11,350.05, one week after a Fibonacci 89 weeks from August 25th, 1999. Then, the next major top occurred on May 17th, 2002, at 10,353.43, one week before a Fibonacci 144 weeks from August 25th, 1999. Then, the next major top occurred on February 19th, 2004 at 10,753.63, a precise Fibonacci 233 weeks from August 25th, 1999’s top. Next up is November 17th, 2006 +/- one week, a Fibonacci 377 weeks from August 25th, 1999, three weeks from now. This suggests we might see an end to the summer/autumn rally shortly after the election."

for info:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/1028.html

Ichiro

10-29-2006, 10:54 AM

28oct-bloomberg-japan's core consumer price gains slow

by mayumi otsuma

"Japan's consumer price gains unexpectedly slowed, prompting speculation the central bank will refrain from raising interest rates until next year.

``The BOJ is taking a forward-looking view,'' said Richard Jerram, chief Japan economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. It is saying ```we are worried that the growth will lead to some sort of inflation and imbalances in the future and therefore we are going to keep pumping rates higher.'''

Wages to Rise

The central bank will next meet to decide rates on Oct. 31, the same day it releases a semi-annual outlook on the economy and inflation. All but one of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the bank to keep rates on hold at the meeting."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJjPsZqgRizQ&refer=japan

`

Ichiro

11-23-2006, 09:25 AM

23nov-daily fx-How does the US dollar perform over the month of December?

byAntonio Sousa

"As many technical analysis traders will attest, patterns have and do form in the financial markets. The definition of Seasonality is that patterns occur predictably at given times of the year. Therefore it should come as no surprise then that there is also an interesting pattern in the US dollar’s behavior in the month of December.

US Dollar – Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

Since 2002, the U.S. dollar has depreciated against the Japanese yen during the month of December but over the past 20 years, the U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese Yen 9 out of 26 times, which indicates a very low seasonality factor. On average, the Japanese yen gained 3.41 percent during the positive months and lost 2.04 percent during the negative months."

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/061122/1164235705336.html?.v=1

Ichiro

11-23-2006, 09:28 AM

23nov-daily fx-Carry Trade Liquidation Hits the US DollarWednesday November 22, 3:59 pm ET

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

"US Dollar – Traders banked their four day rolls at the close of business yesterday and began a massive liquidation out of carry trades that sent the US dollar sliding to its lowest level against the Euro in 14 months. Just as everyone has settled into the notion that it would be a quiet trading week, volatility spiked and currencies began to move. Given that many US and Japanese traders have left early for the holidays, which is quite common this time of the year, the lack of significant liquidity is sure to have played a major role in today’s exaggerated price action. The dollar’s biggest drop was against the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen, both of which are very popular carry trades. Looking ahead, we want to warn that the combination of a depreciating dollar and a bleaker US economic outlook could resurrect talk of reserve diversification by central banks. This was the same case in 2004 when talk of reserve diversification was at its peak as the Euro surged from 1.22 to 1.3660 in a matter of 3.5 months. With the market so dollar bearish, any talk of reserve diversification could take the EUR/USD above 1.30. According to an interesting price study that we published as a special report today on DailyFX.com, over the past 20 years, the US dollar depreciated against the Euro 15 out of those 20 years during the month of December. The seasonality is even more apparent if we zoom into the past 12 years, where there were only two instances that the US dollar managed to rally in the last month of year. Meanwhile only minor economic data was released today. Weekly mortgage applications dropped last week by 3.7 percent, erasing most of the prior week’s gains. Jobless claims ticked higher, bringing the 4 week average to 317k, which signals that payrolls could be a bit softer in November. The final University of Michigan consumer confidence index was also revised down from 92.3 to 92.1 as consumers were slightly less optimistic about the current economy.

Japanese Yen – Carry trade liquidation was the main driver of today’s rally in the Japanese Yen. No meaningful economic data was released last night and the market completely shrugged off the Japanese Cabinet’s first downgrade of their economic assessment since December 2004. The government is worried about consumer spending which has long been one of Japan’s major economic problems. The prior weakness in the Yen should help to keep demand domestic while also boosting the export sector. We still believe that Japan is on the road to recovery and expect incoming economic data to reflect that. Japanese markets are closed tonight for the country’s Labor Thanksgiving Day."

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/061122/1164232768669.html?.v=1

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 08:19 AM

24nov-retuers-Euro shoots above $1.30 to 19-mth high, dlr tumbles

By Natsuko Waki

"The euro shot above $1.30 on Friday for the first time since April last year, extending sharp gains made this week after upbeat German data reinforced expectations the European Central Bank would raise interest rates into next year. The move higher was exacerbated by thin trading conditions, which helped trigger stop-loss buy orders above the psychological $1.30 level. The dollar tumbled across the board, hitting its lowest level against sterling in almost two years.
The dollar was down 0.3 percent at 115.91 yen <JPY=>, after a broad unwinding of carry trades pushed it lower against the low-yielding Japanese currency to 2-1/2 month low. "

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20061124:MTFH30484_2006-11-24_09-11-45_L24456333&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 08:22 AM

24nov-reuters--Nikkei falls as yen hits exporters, banks drop

By Aya Takada

"The Nikkei average closed 1.13 percent lower on Friday after hitting its lowest intraday level in two months, as shares of exporters such as Kyocera Corp. (6971.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) slid on concerns a higher yen would crimp earnings from abroad, and as banks and insurers fell after earnings reports.

Tsutomu Yamada, market analyst at kabu.com Securities, said corporate Japan's insistence on keeping full-year forecasts at conservative levels was partially responsible for the recent slide in Japanese stock prices.

"I think full-year profit forecasts are too conservative, and that has kind of misled investors in places," Yamada said. "

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061124:MTFH29581_ 2006-11-24_08-23-38_T41494&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage3

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 08:24 AM

24nov-reuters-GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar sinks, hitting stocks, boosting bonds

"The dollar plunged against major currencies on Friday, dragging down European stocks as the euro soared and boosting demand for short-tern European bonds.

The euro broke through a psychological barrier of $1.30 <EUR=> and was almost 1 percent higher against the U.S. currency on the day on rising European interest rate expectations."

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20061124:MTFH30415_2006-11-24_09-08-49_L24903116&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

11-24-2006, 09:01 AM

24nov-Bloomberg-Japanese Stocks Decline After Government Cuts View of Economy

By Makiko Suzuki

"Japanese stocks fell, led by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., after the government cut its evaluation of the economy for the first time in almost two years.

``The macro view of Japan is weak, creating bearish sentiment in the market,'' said Fumihiro Nakajima, who oversees about $1 billion at Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. in Tokyo. ``An expensive yen is always negative for exporters.''

``The economy is recovering, despite some weakness in consumption,'' the Cabinet Office said in its report for November. ``Private consumption is almost flat,'' it added, cutting the assessment for the first time since December 2004.

``There's worries in Japan about global and domestic consumption; that's the major negative in investors' minds,'' said Jon Easton, who manages about $200 million in Japanese equities at EN Asset Management in Tokyo.

Stronger Yen

The lender's profit declined because of ``booking of bond losses and slower growth of market-related transaction,'' Hironari Nozaki, a Tokyo-based bank analyst at Nikko Citigroup Ltd., wrote in a Japanese-language note dated Nov. 22.

The yen strengthened to as high as 116.04 against the dollar yesterday as rising U.S. jobless claims and a drop in consumer confidence in the world's largest economy suggested the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

The level was the highest since Sept. 7 on an intra-day basis. The yen recently traded at 116.35.

A stronger Japanese currency means the nation's exporters get less for their dollar-denominated sales while their products become less competitive."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aqUo4c_5mNGs&refer=japan

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 09:27 PM

25Dec-fsu-----USD-07 a final year?

by christopher laird

"This article is going to discuss the growing world discontent with the USD. Previously, although the US fiscal and trade deficits were in danger territory, the US trade partners were willing to continue to accumulate USD foreign reserves as they sold masses of everything under the Sun to the US.

They benefited from massive economic growth, and let the USD hot money circulate in their economies as washed hot money (hot money comes in as USD and then is changed into local currency or lent out in local currency – this causes lending and asset bubbles locally, creating a seeming endless prosperity bubble until that comes to the inevitable end and they have massive inflation or asset bubble collapses). Ultimately this hot money issue will decide the USD fate anyway, but there are sinister looking issues, particularly with China, that may cause a USD crisis in 07."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/1220.html

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 09:29 PM

25dec-fsu- boj is the key

by cpt hook

"With both Bernanke and Paulson heading to China soon, one should definitely not be surprised if the dollar ($) bounces higher in coming days considering they will want to make it appear the world likes a close relationship with the States. And let’s face it, we are talking about the China connection here, the one with America that keeps the global debt bubble afloat, which in turn feeds all the assets bubbles, making it the cornerstone of the ‘globalization model’ bankers around the world envision as our destiny. It’s the ‘new world order’ you see, seamless in terms of freely flowing capital and resources independent of both geographical and political constraints. Of course when oil goes to $150 per barrel at some point in the future, and politics brings geography back into a former light, this view of the world will be well tested, and likely fail with fiat currency regimes within process. But this is a discussion for another day.

Today we will focus on the $, because as Cliff Droke points out in his latest, it might bounce soon considering sentiment is pervasively bearish now. And although I cannot agree with Cliff on the $’s fortunes past the observation sentiment might be a bit too bearish right now for a continued slide, what you will be happy to know is it does not matter what it does moving forward in relation to influencing gold pricing. No, in fact it’s not the $’s movements that has a tight and direct correlation with the gold price, but Japanese equities believe it or not. And in spite of what some will have you believe, Japanese equities are depend on pressure the global economy’s pipe remaining strong, where when we circle back around to the primary point made in our opening remarks, in terms of fiat currency pricing, gold needs to see the US and China getting along trade wise, which will allow asset bubbles to continue growing within the current global trade model. "

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2006/1219.html

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 09:32 PM

25dec-fus--- the euro-yen corssfire

by jim willie

"The real currency story in recent months is the euro-yen cross, and not so much the euro-dollar headline breakout. In Japanese yen terms, the euro is on a tear. Aiding the euro is significant Asian diversification away from the USDollar by their central banks. The Arabs also are diversifying, as much into the pound sterling as the euro. They are experiencing massive anxiety attacks as Iraq disintegrates. Hence, on a combined basis a giant long-term euro breakout has been in progress, having begun in early summer. This euro uptrend has actually lasted 18 months, and began at the key date of July 2005. That date has been cited numerous times in the Hat Trick Letter, when King Abdullah took the Saudi throne, and when the Chinese announced a major shift in the yuan currency program to permit its rise. Both events shook the financial world."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2006/1219.html

Ichiro

12-24-2006, 09:40 PM

25dec-bloomberg---asian stocks rise

by ian sayson

"Asian stocks rose for a sixth week, the longest winning stretch in almost a year. Toyota Motor Corp. led gains as the yen fell to its lowest against the dollar in a month, raising the value of overseas sales.

Thailand's SET Index tumbled 7.6 percent, its biggest weekly slide since September 2001, after the country's central bank imposed controls on investments from abroad. "
for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=andnLlSliHLE&refer=asia

Bullishreturn

12-25-2006, 07:05 PM

China up big on Christmas day. Up over 3%.

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 07:37 PM

2Jan-bloomberg-China to Maintain `Stable Currency Policy' Next Year (Update1)

By Wing-Gar Cheng and Ying Lou

"China's central bank, under pressure from the U.S. and other Group of Seven nations to make the yuan more flexible, will in 2007 pursue a ``stable currency policy'' to promote economic growth.

The People's Bank of China ``will continue to strengthen and adjust financial control mechanisms, execute a stable currency policy, improve foreign exchange management and push for financial reforms and innovation,'' Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said today. ``We want to contribute to ensure stable and accelerated economic development.''

For info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agqlWH1lCM8U&refer=home

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 07:40 PM

2jan-bloomberg--Asian Stocks Rise for Seventh Week; Toyota, BHP Billiton Gain

By Darren Boey

"Asian stocks rose this week, rounding out a fourth consecutive year of gains. BHP Billiton and Toyota Motor Corp. advanced after better-than-expected U.S. home sales and consumer confidence reports.

``People are pretty optimistic right now, with the U.S. housing market doing better than we'd thought,'' said Choi Chang Hoon, who manages about $500 million at Woori Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. in Seoul. ``Exporters may see their earnings improve.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index this week rose 1.2 percent to 140.53. It was its seventh straight weekly advance, the longest winning streak in a year. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.7 percent. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aNnOGWE3HD5I&refer=asia

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 07:42 PM

2jan-Central Bank Dollar Reserves Edge Higher; Euros Slip (Update4)

By Matthew Benjamin and Simon Kennedy

"Central banks' holdings of dollars edged up in the third quarter even as the U.S. currency completes its fourth decline in five years against the euro.

Dollars accounted for 65.6 percent of reserves, up from 65.3 percent in the prior thee months, the International Monetary Fund said today in Washington. Euros slipped to 25.2 percent from 25.5 percent. Total reserves increased.

Central banks bought more dollars despite a slowing U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's decision to halt a two-year run of interest-rate increases. Tighter monetary policy from the European Central Bank failed to raise the proportion of reserves held in the 12-nation currency. Dollar holdings are still down from 66.3 percent a year earlier and 72.6 percent in June 2001. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aACx1IPzfvQ0&refer=currency

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 07:44 PM

2jan-bloomberg-S. Korean Exports Rise 13.8% to $29.2 Bln in December (Update1)

By Kevin Cho and Seyoon Kim

"South Korea's exports rose in December as companies sold more goods including cars, chips and other goods.

Exports increased 13.8 percent to $29.2 billion from a year earlier after rising 18.7 percent in November, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said in Gwacheon, South Korea today. That compares with the median forecast of a 15.2 percent gain in a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists."

for info: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601013&sid=aPCqVbVT4wwE&refer=emergingmarkets

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 07:46 PM

2jan-bloombergWhy 2007 Is a Make-or-Break Year for China, Asia: William Pesek

By William Pesek

"Of all the questions facing Asia in 2007, none looms larger than what to expect from China.

The last 12 months proved more than ever how much Asia is relying on its second-biggest economy. Japan may be back and the U.S. economy is by far the world's largest, yet China's 10 percent growth is increasingly underpinning Asia's hopes.

China isn't likely to slide into crisis in 2007, though the number of issues that may come to a head is daunting. On the one hand, China needs to create millions of jobs to spread the benefits of rapid growth. On the other, it must slow things down to avoid overheating -- something it didn't do in 2006."

for info: -http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=agrKSFDgCHDo&refer=columnist_pesek

Ichiro

01-01-2007, 07:49 PM

2jan-bloomberg--Asia Must Pass Buffett's `Naked Swimmer' Test

By Andy Mukherjee

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- "Approaching the 10th anniversary of the Asian financial crisis, we must brace for a round of self- congratulatory backslapping.

In the months ahead, expect policy makers in the region to wax eloquent about how much more resilient their economies and capital markets have become since those dark days of 1997.

Is Asia really less vulnerable now? We won't know the answer to that question until the money that's betting on Asia's strength has undergone Warren Buffett's ``naked swimmer'' test.

The outward signs do support an optimistic appraisal.

The $1.6 trillion buildup in foreign-exchange reserves in Asia, excluding Japan, in the past decade makes the fortress appear better protected against speculators than in the past.

Yet, it's reasonable to ask if reserve acquisition beyond a point is good use of local taxpayers' money, and whether it can ever be a substitute for prudent economic policies, a strong banking system and the rule of law. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a6LS6yIE1mMM&refer=columnist_mukherjee

Oldcoin

01-01-2007, 09:35 PM

Inchiro, good to have you back. Haven’t seen you post for a while, hope all is well.

Show-me

01-01-2007, 10:15 PM

Ditto!

Inchiro, good to have you back. Haven’t seen you post for a while, hope all is well.

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:34 AM

Well, I got a 25% appreciation in my TSP, ETFs and my mutual funds in 2006. I think with the third year of the presidental cycle, I should do even better in 2007.

Ichiro

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:37 AM

3jan-reuters-GLOBAL MARKETS-HK stocks hit record high, Aussie dollar rules

By Kim Coghill

SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Stocks in Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore hit record highs on Wednesday as investors bet there was room to build on last year's rally while the Australian dollar extended gains as dealers bought high-yielding currencies.

Gold and oil were little changed but activity was subdued with many traders still away on holiday or awaiting minutes due later on Wednesday of the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting for potential clues on the outlook for interest rates and the dollar.

Markets were also waiting for the Institute for Supply Management's latest reading on U.S. manufacturing, due to be released later in the day, to help determine market direction.

Britain's FTSE 100 index .FTSE was seen opening down 2 to 14 points after gaining 1.45 percent on Tuesday.

"Look at the liquidity in the market," said Dale Tsang, managing director, securities trading division, Polaris Capital (Asia) Limited in Hong Kong.

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070103:MTFH38655_2007-01-03_06-57-31_SP51793&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:39 AM

3jan-reuters-European stocks -- Factors to watch on Jan 3

LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - "European shares are seen opening mixed on Wednesday, with investors awaiting key manufacturing data from across the Atlantic as the euro holds firm.

U.S. markets were shut on Tuesday to mourn former president Gerald Ford and Japanese markets were shut on Wednesday as part of the New Year holiday, meaning that there are few other cues available from other regions. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index, delayed from Tuesday, is the main economic data due, while investors are also keeping an eye on minutes from the Federal Reserve's last monetary policy meeting due for release later in the day."

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070103:MTFH38594_2007-01-03_06-52-38_L02933375&type=comktNews&rpc=44

The data will give indications about how the U.S. economy is doing and how hawkish monetary policy is likely to be.

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:41 AM

3jan-ap-Dollar Falls Against Major Currencies

By J.W. Elphinstone, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- "The dollar fell against other major currencies Tuesday during thin holiday trading and ahead of key economic reports this week.

The euro bought $1.3276 in afternoon New York trading, up from $1.3163 late Friday in New York. Exchanges were closed on Monday due to the New Year's Day holiday.

The European currency is now used by 13 countries after Slovenia adopted the euro on Monday.

The British pound also rose to $1.9729, up from $1.9613 on Friday. The dollar weakened against the Japanese currency, slipping to 118.85 yen from 118.90 yen on Friday.

"The real money players globally have not come back from the holidays yet. We'll start to see some real flows tomorrow, Thursday and Friday," said Michael Woolfolk, a senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York. "We're dollar negative today, but I don't think that's any leading indicator for the rest of the week.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070102/dollar.html?.v=7

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:45 AM

3jan- Daily FX-US Dollar Sells Off on First Trading Day of 2007

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist s

US Dollar

"2007 has started with a bang even though the US equity markets were closed for the National Mourning Day. After at least a week of compressed volatility, we have finally seen a breakout in the currency market as the US dollar came under severe selling pressure. Traders are telling the market that they do not want to be long dollars ahead of the busy data week. There was originally a lot of important data due for release today, but that is now pushed out to Wednesday. Tomorrow we are expecting not only the manufacturing ISM survey, but also one of the “leading indicators” for December payrolls, which is the ADP Employment index. ISM and payrolls are this shortened trading week’s most important economic releases. The ADP report is projected to forecast a smaller payroll gain in December than in November. The size of the surprise, if any could set the tone for trading until we see the actual payrolls report on Friday. We would need to see very strong payroll growth to reverse the hold that dollar bears have on the market right now. "

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070102/1167773729925.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:49 AM

3jan-bloomberg-Asian Stocks Fall From Record; Thai Shares Drop After Bombings

By Chen Shiyin and Chua Kong Ho

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "Asian stocks fell, led by Thai shares after deadly bomb attacks added to investor concerns following a military coup and the imposition of currency controls. Thai Airways International Pcl and Bangkok Bank Pcl slumped.

``The latest bombings in Thailand have created even more uncertainty,'' said Teng Ngiek Lian, chief executive officer at Target Asset Management in Singapore, which manages $1.6 billion. ``Tourism-related stocks will be the worst-hit. Banks and consumer stocks will be affected as well.''

South Korea's Kospi index declined after the government predicted that exports, the mainstay of the economy, will cool. Samsung Electronics Co. and Korea Electric Power Corp. fell following analyst downgrades. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. led Australian shares lower after a cyclone disrupted output. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aCQsyot6dHa4&refer=asia

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:52 AM

3jan-Yen May Rise on Rates, Say Banks Who Anticipated Drop (Update4)

By Agnes Lovasz and Ye Xie

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- "Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., Barclays Plc and Investors Bank & Trust Co., among the handful of firms that correctly predicted last year's drop in the yen, say the currency will rebound as Japanese interest rates rise.

The yen may jump 8 percent to 109 against the dollar in 2007, the most in three years, and climb for the first time since 1999 versus the euro, according to the median of forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of 40 analysts.

Economists estimate the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at least twice by the end of March, after central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui told business leaders in a Christmas Day address that increasing wages may stoke inflation. Most strategists predicted a rally in the yen last year only to see hedge funds and Japanese investors spurn the currency for higher-yielding markets.

``We're looking for appreciation,'' said Osamu Takashima, chief analyst for global-market sales and trading at Tokyo-based Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the nation's biggest bank. He raised his year-end forecast to 110 to the dollar from 112 last month because ``Japan is in a tightening cycle.''

The yen rose to 118.82 per dollar at 4 p.m. in New York from 119.04 late yesterday. It fell 0.2 percent last week to 119.07 against the U.S. currency and lost 0.7 percent versus the euro after Fukui also said on Dec. 25 that consumer spending is ``somewhat weak.''

Rate Increases

``Our view is the yen will be at 110 by the end of the year,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``We see four interest-rate hikes this year.'' "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a3z5RR8AddBA&refer=japan

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 06:55 AM

3jan-fsu-THE ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN IN BONDS WARNS OF A RECESSION IN 2007
by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

"We believe the risks for Bondholders leans toward a rise in prices, and substantially declining long-term interest rates. This is frightening, as it means we are about to enter another recession, one that could be deeper than we have seen in a long time. Why do we see this as an increasing risk? Primarily what has changed is the development of a Symmetrical or hybrid Ascending Bullish triangle from 2002, shown below. Triangles are usually wave fours, so that means we have a wave five up coming after this pattern completes. Whether this pattern is a Symmetrical Triangle or is an Ascending Triangle, both are Bullish for prices. In the case of a Symmetrical, the trend leading into the triangle is the trend that will continue after it completes — in this case up. In the case of Ascending, they are almost always Bullish."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/1230.html

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 11:51 AM

3jan-ap- AP-Stock Futures Rise Sharply

Stock Futures Rise Sharply on 1st Trading Day of 2007; Dow Futures Are Up 68

LONDON (AP) -- "U.S. stock futures rose sharply to start the new year on Wednesday, as investors viewed strong sales data from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. over the weekend as a sign that the holiday shopping season was better than expected and also looked at a downturn in crude oil futures.

In a heavy day for economic data, monthly auto sales and a key manufacturing gauge are due to be released, as are minutes from the last Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting.

S&P 500 futures rose 7.7 points at 1,436.10 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 14.5 points at 1,789.50. Dow industrial futures rose 68 points."

For info:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/wall_street.html?.v=4

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:04 PM

4jan-ap- AP
Dollar Up Against Euro on ISM Strength

Dollar Up Against Euro After Positive U.S. Manufacturing Report

BERLIN (AP) -- "The dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday after a report detected unexpected strength in the U.S. manufacturing industry.

In afternoon trading in Europe, the continent's 13-nation currency bought $1.3188, down from $1.3276 in New York trading late Tuesday.

ADVERTISEMENT
The British pound dropped sharply, trading at $1.9528, down from $1.9729. The dollar also gained to 119.44 yen from 118.85 yen late Tuesday.

The dollar gained after a survey found that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in December, reversing the previous month's contraction.

The Institute for Supply Management's December index came in at 51.4, compared with a consensus forecast of 50.0 and November's 49.5. A reading above 50 signal expansion, while one below indicates a contraction."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/dollar.html?.v=4

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:07 PM

4jan-bloomberg-U.S. Stocks Drop After Fed Minutes; Energy Shares Slide on Oil

By Michael Patterson

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) --" U.S. stocks reversed course and dropped on their first day of trading this year as a tumble in oil prices sent energy shares lower, while comments from the Federal Reserve dimmed the prospects for an interest-rate cut.

Exxon Mobil Corp. led the decline as crude oil had its biggest plunge in 20 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index erased its gain following the release of the minutes of the Fed's Dec. 12 meeting, at which policy makers concluded the risk that inflation would fail to slow was ``the predominant concern.''

``That language of inflation being the primary concern effectively threw cold water on any imminent rate cuts,'' said Jack Ablin, who helps manage $50 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``That's certainly unwelcome news for stocks.''

The S&P 500 slipped 6.56, or 0.5 percent, to 1411.74 as of 2:50 p.m. in New York. The benchmark earlier climbed as much as 0.8 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 15.25, or 0.6 percent, to 2400.04. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aggiuNUrIl3A&refer=home

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:30 PM

4jan-bloomberg-Oil Falls the Most Since April 2005 as Mild Weather Cuts Demand

By Mark Shenk

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "Crude oil in New York plunged the most in 20 months as mild U.S. weather curbed heating demand and traders speculated that fuel supplies increased.

Home-heating demand in the Northeast, the region responsible for 80 percent of U.S. heating-oil use, will be 43 percent below normal through Jan. 10, said forecaster Weather Derivatives. U.S. fuel stockpiles probably rose last week, according to the median of responses in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices are heading for the biggest one-day decline since April 27, 2005.

``The entire focus is on the weather,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. ``It looks like it will be at least mid-January before we get any hint of real cold weather in the Northeast.''

Crude oil for February delivery fell $2.80, or 4.6 percent, to $58.25 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $58.12, the lowest since Nov. 20. Oil is down 7.8 percent from a year ago. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQmSRD3VgcdA&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

01-03-2007, 07:33 PM

4jan-bloomberg-Pound Has Biggest Daily Drop Since 2005: World's Biggest Mover

By Gavin Finch

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- "The U.K. pound fell against the dollar, the biggest fluctuation of any currency today, on speculation an earlier rally to the strongest in almost a month already reflected prospects for another interest-rate increase.

The currency had its biggest daily drop versus the dollar in almost 14 months after a report yesterday showed manufacturing growth weakened in December to the slowest pace in nine months. Traders last month cut bets the pound will gain, after it reached a 14-year high against the U.S. currency, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

``Sterling looks very fully valued, and that in the extreme,'' given the interest-rate outlook, said Jeremy Stretch, senior currency strategist at Rabobank Groep in London.

The pound fell against all 16 of the most actively traded currencies, trading at $1.9495 at 4:30 p.m. in London after earlier touching $1.9490, from $1.9737 yesterday. Against the euro, the pound was at 67.54 pence from 67.25 pence."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aQt.iT7rcpGA&refer=uk

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 02:48 AM

6jan-Japan, U.S. warn N. Korea on nuke tests

By HANS GREIMEL, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 59 minutes ago

TOKYO - ""Japanese and U.S. officials warned Friday of tougher measures against
North Korea if the isolated communist nation conducts a second nuclear test.

Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice said that a second nuclear test "no doubt would deepen its isolation."

Rice and
South Korea's foreign minister, Song Min-Soon, agreed at a news conference in Washington that their governments want negotiations on North Korea's nuclear program resumed.

"If North Korea is prepared to return in a more constructive spirit" the talks could be reopened fairly soon, Rice said. But she added, "We know of no substantive response from the North Koreans."

The remarks came amid U.S. media reports that Pyongyang has appeared to have readied for another nuclear test and that the preparation steps were similar to those taken before its first nuclear detonation on Oct. 9. But Japanese and South Korean officials have not reported any signs that the North was preparing for another test.""

for info:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070106/ap_on_re_as/japan_nkorea

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 02:51 AM

5jan-reuters-Emerging debt-Prices fall on interest rate woes
Fri Jan 5, 2007 5:13pm ET

By Walter Brandimarte

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) -"" Emerging sovereign bonds gave back part of their recent rally on Friday after a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report led investors to reduce their expectations of interest cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

A continued fall in commodities prices also weighed on Latin American markets despite a 1-percent recovery in crude prices, after losses of 9 percent during the previous two sessions.

Emerging debt returns fell 0.42 percent on average, erasing all of their gains year-to-date, according to the benchmark JP Morgan's EMBI+ index <11EMJ>. Bonds gained about 10 percent in 2006. ""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070105:MTFH49975_2007-01-05_22-13-19_N05155738&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 02:54 AM

5jan-daily fx-- Daily FX
Dollar Surprise As NFPs Shirk Detractors
Friday January 5, 2:52 pm ET
By John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com

""The long awaited US payrolls number offered the surprise that volatility traders were expecting. However, as the monthly figures continue to stabilize around 100,000 new hires a month, the question arises whether such a tepid indicator will still draw the crowds should similar prints be in the cards for the future.

Price action following today’s employment numbers was tame relative to what has been seen in the past. Against the euro, the dollar pushed 80 points ahead, before quietly settling just above 1.2980 support. Seeming to fall back into its congestive behavior, the USDJPY initial move totaled 55 points and lost upward momentum around 119. Unsurprisingly, the GBPUSD produced the biggest move for the day in a 95-point initial drop to trade around 1.93. Finally, USDCHF cleared 1.23 with its 70-point advance though 1.24 proved to be insurmountable with Friday’s thinning liquidity.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070105/1168030363416.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 02:59 AM

6jan-FOREX-Jobs data help extend dollar rally to third day
Fri Jan 5, 2007 4:18pm ET145

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - ""The dollar gained for a third day on Friday after a surprising report on U.S. jobs growth in December led investors to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rates cut in the next six months.

The euro plunged to a six-week low against the dollar after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy generated 167,000 new jobs in December, well above market expectations for a rise of 100,000. For more, see

"For the time being, with this reasonable number that you have, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut is off the table," said John McCarthy, vice president of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York. "That's lending a bit of support to the dollar."

Several analysts said they are not expecting the Fed to cut interest rates from the present level of 5.25 percent any time soon, especially since the data also showed the largest rise in average hourly earnings in eight months.

Robust job growth, coupled with upward pressure on hourly wages, will likely keep the Fed concerned enough about inflation to leave its key interest rate on hold for at least several months to come, analysts said.""

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070105:MTFH49109_2007-01-05_21-18-01_N05429826&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 01:14 PM

7jan-fsu- THE WORLD AT A GLANCE-Global Economic Growth to Continue in 2007
by Monty Guild
Guild Investment Management, Inc.
January 4, 2007

""World economic growth for last year is a portent of growth for 2007.

In our opinion, world economic growth rates in 2007 will be much like 2006. The U.S. and Canada grew a little slower, and Europe a little faster, China and India grew very fast. China grew over 10% in 2006, and four countries total; China, India, Argentina and Venezuela grew at over 8%. Never have we seen economies of large countries grow like that.

If a country’s economy is growing at 8%, the better companies in that country can grow their earnings at a much faster 20 to 30% rate.

I look for more of the same in 2007. In addition, Eastern Europe may surprise many, as they start to grow faster than many had thought possible.

ON THE WHOLE, DECENT AND RESPECTABLE GROWTH WORLDWIDE IN 2007

For 2007, our estimates for real GDP (gross domestic product after removing inflation) for each country/region are as follows:
Europe
United Kingdom 2.5%
Scandinavia 3.5%
Switzerland 2.7%
E.U. Countries 2.4%
Asia
Japan 1.7%
China 10.0%
India 8.0%
Other Asia 6.6%
North and South America
Latin America 4.0%
United States 2.2%
Canada 2.4%

WHAT DO THESE GROWTH RATES MEAN?

Basically, we are looking for ok economic growth for the world, and much better than ok growth for China, India, Eastern Europe much of Asia. The growth in Western Europe and North America should also be ok.

The strategy should be to wait for corrections, and buy when others are pessimistic. The media will continue to beat the drum that the U.S. economy and market are doing stunningly well. This is true in the short run, however for the last few years this is not true. The reality is that the S&P 500 has gone nowhere for six and 1/2 years, the Dow Jones Index is up only a few percent over the same amount of time, and the NASDAQ Composite is still down 40% from its highs in early 2000.

The last few months have been good, and the last 3 years acceptable, but the beating that the market took from 2000 to 2002 is still affecting many U.S. stocks.

Foreign markets have significantly outperformed the U.S. since 2000, and in our opinion will continue to for the next few years. With foreign markets, there will, be plenty of volatility, and we plan to buy on the dips.

The U.S. market should be ok, but not great. The market and economy may weaken and bottom in the middle part of the year, and be followed by a modest recovery. Also, housing will probably recover in the later part of 2007.""

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/guild/2007/0104.html

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 01:17 PM

7jan-fsu-EURO KEY TO US$ DECLINE
by Jim Willie CB
January 5, 2007

""The USDollar decline remains in progress, the one which began when the United States citizenry and its Wall Street aristocrats observed the great eating orgy known as Thanksgiving. Nothing can stop a holiday where Americans make eating the order of the day. All else sits still, even markets. The USDollar began its breakdown then, and it continues. The past week only served to provide a correction to the breakout. Technicians call it a revisit to the point of breakout. Some offer that it is akin to a man emerging from a bathroom window. He sticks his head out first, then pulls back in. Next is emergence of the entire upper torso to be followed by the entire body afterwards. In this setting, the euro head moved back inside the bathroom. Next is the continuation of the foreign currency uptrend, with more uplegs, led by the euro and sterling. The yen is the wild card.

A starkly plain fact of economic life is that a USDollar correction contradicts all claims of a USEconomic recovery. Instead, it screams “RECESSION” and confirms the inverted Treasury Yield Curve. The slump in the energy and copper market also testifies to the recession underway. Don’t look to the Banking Stock Index BKX for guidance, since those guys are way too competent to miss speculative opportunities to make big money. The spread trades (to profit off yield differentials) and the carry trades (to do the same within different currencys) offer the big banks plenty of opportunity to pick low fruit for profit. They are most likely tipped off by Goldman Suchs after they have their positions in place, with an “all clear” on absent risk. The magnets for investment in the last twelve months have been outside the United States all year long, another signal of USDollar unattractiveness.

FIRST STAGE OF USDOLLAR BREAKDOWN

Much talk has floated like verbal vomit about the benefit to US exporters from a lower USDollar. If so, then the net benefit to the USEconomy would show up in a remedied trade gap. This is mere material suitable for promotional literature at Wall Street firms, surely not fit in our world. One needs a manufacturing base to pull off that stunt. Not happening. We still import much more than export, as any recovery is founded upon imported goods purchased in both retail consumption and foreign made equipment. Import growth has superceded export growth since 2003. Also, multi-national firms will enjoy favorable currency translation of operations, but that encourages more jobs shipped overseas. To be sure, Caterpillar and Boeing will benefit from currency translation. Talk of benefits is pure political pablum and Wall Street deceptive spin. Any market correction to the obscenity whereby the United States demands 80% of world capital will NOT come with any benefits, only pain, crisis, financial loss, and disruption. Probably war too.

When the buck broke down in thin holiday trading during the week of Thanksgiving, the real story was with the major international currencies. The euro, swissy, aussie, and sterling all jumped markedly, enough to grab headline news. The USDollar breakdown, plunge, steep decline, severe adjustment shook the global financial world and captured its attention in loud manner. The intractable imbalances are not resolvable, and will present a clear & present danger for years to come. What happened in late November was the first of a great many earthquakes in a long sequence whose trade and debt imbalances serve as tectonic plate gaps rubbed raw by destructive foreign policy discourse amidst power games. The earthquake event six weeks ago made all the more urgent the economic summit meeting in China. The summit might buy more time, but will not in any way fix anything. The main outcome will be for more Wall Street profiteering. More IPO’s are in the pipeline, ensuring heavy profit for Chinese leaders on the inside track, and for Wall Street firms who are also on the inside track. The line between government and big private firms has been blurred, if not eradicated, all in the Mussolini tradition without a peep objection by the clueless public."

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2007/0105.html

airlift

01-06-2007, 05:55 PM

pyriel

01-06-2007, 08:14 PM

I respect Ichiro's freedom of expression. However, I can see a lot of hostility and anger towards the United States and towards Wall Street. This hostility I do not share. Nevertheless, the contents of his post refer to matters beyond my area of expertise. Moreover, I am not an economist or a stockbroker. I don't know if he is on the right track or not regarding the U.S. economy. Perhaps the economy is going through transition pains associated with globalization and/or free trade. I defer to others more knowlegeable than I, in financial matters. Good luck!

I have to admit that my way of thinking is congruent with Ichiro's posts. All of my recent readings seems to be pointing that way. We can also assess that by how international has been beating the US stock funds within the last few years. I'm not saying that this trend will be forever but for my short term range like 3-5 years, i'm betting on international outgrowing our US stock funds.
P

dell

01-06-2007, 08:44 PM

I respect Ichiro's freedom of expression. However, I can see a lot of hostility and anger towards the United States and towards Wall Street. This hostility I do not share. Nevertheless, the contents of his post refer to matters beyond my area of expertise. Moreover, I am not an economist or a stockbroker. I don't know if he is on the right track or not regarding the U.S. economy. Perhaps the economy is going through transition pains associated with globalization and/or free trade. I defer to others more knowlegeable than I, in financial matters. Good luck!

Where do you see anger towards the U.S.? What in the world are you looking at? He is one of the most valuable posters on this board and has been for a long time. He does the research most of us do not have time to do and posts the articles he finds for us to use or ignor as we sit fit.

Please direct me to the post in which this hostility is displayed against the U.S. Clearly I have missed it and I would like to read it so I can come to my own conclusion.

Thanks - Dell

350zCommTech

01-06-2007, 09:41 PM

I respect Ichiro's freedom of expression. However, I can see a lot of hostility and anger towards the United States and towards Wall Street. This hostility I do not share. Nevertheless, the contents of his post refer to matters beyond my area of expertise. Moreover, I am not an economist or a stockbroker. I don't know if he is on the right track or not regarding the U.S. economy. Perhaps the economy is going through transition pains associated with globalization and/or free trade. I defer to others more knowlegeable than I, in financial matters. Good luck!

Those are not his opinions. Like Birch, he's just doing a copy/paste of the articles, hence the links below them. These articles provide insights to the OSMs and their currencies' direction.

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 09:41 PM

Thanks, sponsor and pyriel for your input!

To keep everything simple, let me say this---As you all probably know, most US and foreign companies are moving into other countries especially the emerging growth countries to increased their net profit. That is why many foreign companies are setting up their manufacturing plants in both China and India because of the potential for big profit. Why? They are slowly moving from a third world country to a mightly economic power. And as you all probably know everything is based on supply and demand (I mean microeconomics). Evenually, most middle class people in China and India will be driving a car due to their increased economic wealth....and guess which companies will benefit from all this.. GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW, etc. Why do I know this---I not only search the net to find info but also I travel to some of these emerging countries (China, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Mayalsia) every year. I saw a big change in their life style and the economics growth which made me change my investment plan to emphasis more in the international funds. The bottonline for me is that it is a no brainer that the stock prices of the companies in the international funds will increase substantially in the next three or four years. I know for a fact that nothing goes up forever based on my 25 stock investment experience but I will take a portion of the profit while it last..

Now, i do have substantial investments in US stocks also. I have a stock that I had invested for the past 25 years. Which company is that-- the duck... I mean AFLAC. It is not doing too well these days but my initial investment is already up 125X. Besides, when I retire from Dod FED, my dividends from aFLAC will be more than my FED monthly retirement pay. I also have investments in Johnson and Johnson, Clorox, Wrilgley gum, etc. I have gained lots of knowledge from joining the local chapter of the Better Investing club and also by reading books on Mr. Warren Buffett.

Pyriel, you are making a very smart move as far as your real estate investment in Guam. It is like the old Hawaii when a house in Hawaii cost only $35K in 1970 and now the market is $650K and up. It is basically supply and demand (again, microecomics). The land is limited but the demand is increasing because of the increase in the troops (air force and army). Very smart move...

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 10:38 PM

6jan-bloomberg-European Bonds Post Weekly Fall on Signs Growth Is Accelerating

By Anchalee Worrachate

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- ""European bonds declined for a fifth consecutive week after reports showed confidence in the euro region economy stayed close to a six-year high in December and unemployment fell to a record low.

Debt has slid, pushing two-year yields to the highest since July 2002, on signs German growth is quickening. An index of optimism among executives and consumers in the region fell to 110.1 from 110.3 in November, the European Commission said yesterday. Debt was also hurt after a report showed the U.S. economy added more jobs last month than economists forecast.

``The euro zone bond market probably has more downside to come,'' said John Maskell, head of European rates fund management at Barclays Global Investors in London said. ``We've got very good data during Christmas and we've got relentless rhetoric from the ECB that suggested rates are headed higher.''

The yield on the two-year note rose 2 basis points to 3.91 percent at 4:40 p.m. yesterday in London. The price of the 3.75 percent bond due December 2008 fell 0.07 or 70 euro cents per 1,000 euro ($1,309) face amount, to 99.70. The 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 3.98 percent. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7pyNnBM48wc&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 10:40 PM

6jan-bloombeg-China Raises Bank Reserve Requirement to Cool Lending (Update3)

By Nipa Piboontanasawat

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) --"" China told banks to set aside more money as reserves for the fourth time in seven months to prevent a rebound in lending and investment in the world's fastest- growing major economy.

Banks must put aside 9.5 percent of deposits starting on Jan. 15, up from 9 percent, the Beijing-based People's Bank of China said today on its Web site.

China, which raised interest rates twice last year to reach 6.12 percent, wants to prevent cash generated by a record trade surplus from being channeled through bank lending into investments. The U.S. and Europe have accused China of keeping its currency undervalued to make its exports cheaper and have threatened sanctions.

``This is not the end,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. ``We expect investment growth to rebound and the central bank will continue efforts to tighten liquidity.'' He expects the central bank to raise interest rates in the middle of this year. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aGh_QKaQdKI8&refer=economy

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 10:42 PM

7jan-bloomberg-European Retail Growth Slows in December, PMI Shows (Update3)

By Dara Doyle

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) --"" European retail sales grew in December at the slowest pace in nine months, a sign that economic expansion is easing, the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed.

An index of retail sales in the euro economy fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.1 from 53.7 in November, a survey of more than 1,000 retail executives compiled for Bloomberg LP by NTC Economics Ltd. showed today. A level above 50 indicates growth.

The retail index is the third survey this week suggesting economic expansion is ebbing from the fastest pace in six years. The services and manufacturing industries unexpectedly lost momentum last month. The slowdown indicates the highest interest rates in five years restrained Christmas shopping as Germany raised sales taxes on Jan. 1.

``Consumers will be more cautious, especially in the first half of the year,'' said Sebastian Wanke, an economist at Deka Bank in Frankfurt. ``German spending in particular may be weaker, and the economy overall won't be as strong in 2007 as last year.'' ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aROg7Hpm7dvM&refer=economy

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 10:47 PM

7jan-bloomberg--Something Has Got to Give on Japanese Economy: William Pesek (I think that Japan's economy is slowing adn that PM Abe is in big trouble)

By William Pesek

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) --"" A look at Japan-related headlines doesn't inspire confidence in the economy as 2007 gets under way.

Some predict the Tokyo Stock Price Index will climb to the highest level since the bubble economy ended in 1989. Other headlines wonder why consumers aren't spending more. Elsewhere, one reads of how bond traders are bracing for a Bank of Japan interest-rate increase, even though there's no inflation.

Something has got to give. Either Japan's longest expansion since World War II will gain momentum, boosting corporate profits and wages, or it will shift into a lower gear, disappointing investors once again.

My money is on the latter risk, and, if I'm right, the policy priorities of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be largely to blame.

It may not have occurred to many outside Tokyo yet, but Abe is in trouble. His approval ratings plunged last month as two members of his government resigned in separate scandals. His bigger failing is the lack of a clear and convincing strategy for Asia's biggest economy.

Speaking at a New Year's press conference yesterday, Abe did lay out his big initiative for the year: legislation to revise Japan's pacifist constitution for the first time since its adoption 60 years ago. Abe's other big push is to tweak the education system to make youngsters more patriotic.

That's all fine, yet Abe seems distracted from the vital issue of bringing Japan's recovery to the next level. For example, he talks about trimming a public debt that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development puts at 170 percent of gross domestic product, yet he doesn't say how he will offset that fiscal tightening.""

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=acYVqTKZG9e4

Ichiro

01-06-2007, 10:50 PM

7jan-bloomberg--Surprise, Surprise! China Economy May Accelerate: William Pesek (China may be growing in excess of the offical growth rate)

By William Pesek

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- ""The biggest economic surprise of 2006 -- a Chinese economy that refused to slow -- will probably repeat itself this year.

As predictions go, more of the same is never exciting. Yet in 2007, the odds favor China accelerating rather than trying to cool down the world's fastest-growing major economy.

``The slowdown steps are likely largely over,'' says Donald Straszheim, chairman of Newport Beach, California-based Roth Capital Partners. The consensus view -- that China will slow, partly a result of policy steps taken to date, further tightening to come and a slower U.S. economy -- is wrong, he says.

On the one hand, officials in Beijing realize things aren't overheating as expected. On the other, they may fear a slowdown would do more harm than good. Straszheim thinks Chinese growth will accelerate to 11 percent this year from 10 percent in 2006.

Two important caveats are worth mentioning here. First, China may be growing far in excess of official numbers anyway. Suspicions come from the fact China's 31 provinces often report higher growth rates than the national one. Also, many China-based executives suspect official figures are off the mark. """

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aXO3ftOe_qFQ&refer=columnist_pesek

airlift

01-06-2007, 11:15 PM

Now I understand. Thank you.

Those are not his opinions. Like Birch, he's just doing a copy/paste of the articles, hence the links below them. These articles provide insights to the OSMs and their currencies' direction.

Ichiro

01-07-2007, 09:09 AM

7jan-Investment Outlook-Bill Gross | January 2007 (from the bond guru)
The 5% Solution

""Is the Fed impotent now – a 110-pound weakling getting sand kicked in its face by the global financial community as it creates massive liquidity? Or to put it more politely, can Bernanke continue to control the U.S. economy and inflation – or is he, like everyone else, at the mercy of the recycling of Asian and BRIC reserves, the reinvestment of petro-dollars, and the hardnosed capitalistic proclivities of hedge funds and investment banks? It’s not an outrageous question you know, and its answer may help guide asset managers in their quest for profits in 2007 and beyond. Even the Fed itself has admitted that it sometimes resembles Nicole Richie as opposed to Arnold Schwarzenegger these days. After all it was Ben Bernanke who coined the phrase “global savings glut” and used it to explain why intermediate and long-term yields in the U.S. (and by implication worldwide) were as much as 1% lower than they should be. Still, while a case can be made that much of the U.S. and other global yield curves have been almost permanently reshaped by yield insensitive recycling of U.S. balance of payment deficits, it seems to me that the Fed actually has a stronger hand to play in 2007 than it has for several years now and that determining where the future Fed Funds rate should be is a key for bond and stock market performance in the months and quarters ahead. With Asian central banks more concerned about currency levels than reinvestment returns, petrodollar recipients more worried about parking their burgeoning wealth in perceived safe haven bond markets than debating whether the U.S. 10-year belongs at 4.7% or 5.7%, and multinational corporations still leery of deploying their huge cash reserves in capital spending alternatives, the one and perhaps only major player that is particularly price sensitive is the Fed. If 5¼% is the right rate for a goldilocks economy then there it will stay. If it generates accelerating inflation then it’ll go up; if accelerating unemployment then it’ll go down. And because the Fed is the most price-sensitive participant in the credit markets they, not private market players, will guide other yields upward or downward much like the North Star has guided mariners for centuries. Where, then, will Fed Funds be at the end of 2007?""

for info:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+Janaury+2007.htm

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 04:37 AM

13jan-daily fx-- Daily FX-US Dollar (USD) Becomes Exhausted Despite Strong Retail Sales
Friday January 12, 3:52 pm ET
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

• US Dollar (USD) Becomes Exhausted Despite Strong Retail Sales
• British Pound (GBP) Looks Ahead to Strong Inflation Data Next Week
• Japanese Yen (JPY) Faces 50-50 Chance of Interest Rate Hike

""US Dollar- US retail sales were very strong in the month of December, but after a week of solid gains it seems that there just weren’t enough buyers out there to take the currency even higher. Across the board, it appears that the dollar’s rally has become exhaustive as the EUR/USD hits a critical support level while USD/JPY reaches resistance. This morning's retail sales report should have convinced any remaining dollar bulls sitting on the sidelines to join the party. Consumer spending was stronger across the board with both headline retail sales rising 0.9 percent and ex autos rising by 1.0 percent. Recent data indicates that many economy watchers have underestimated the strength of the US economy. Last week’s jump in non-farm payrolls and this week’s improvement in the trade balance along with the rise in retail sales will be enough to cause widespread revisions to fourth quarter GDP forecasts. It will also keep the Federal Reserve on hold for the foreseeable future. They have no reason to shift gears and the market expects the same as future contracts continue to price in a less than 50 percent chance of a rate hike in the first half of the year. In addition to the rise in retail sales, import prices also jumped 1.1 percent due to the beginning of the month increase in crude prices. Inflation is on the Fed’s radar and this number only confirms the recent hawkishness by Fed officials. Next week, inflation will continue to be a primary theme in the markets with producer and consumer prices due for release. The Treasury will also be releasing their report on net foreign purchases of US securities. Given the improvement in the trade deficit, foreign inflows should have no problem covering the same month’s trade related outflows. Volatility should continue in the currency market, but with the US closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. day, that vitality may not come until Wednesday when PPI is due for release.""

For inof:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070112/1168638808494.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 04:40 AM

13jan-dialy fx-- Daily FX-Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar Reach Parity - But What About the Yen

By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

""In a true sign of economic irony, Hong Kong merchants who used to raise their noses at yuan bearing tourists from the mainland are now eagerly accepting the Chinese currency at their establishments while their counterparts in Shanghai are now far less happy to accept Hong Kong dollars in return. What has prompted such a turnabout of action?

For the first time in a 13 years, the Chinese yuan exchange rate has exceeded the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. China's central bank set the yuan's mid-point against the US dollar on Thursday at 7.7977, pushing the unit above 7.8, the level at which Hong Kong has pegged its currency to the US dollar for the first time since 1994. The news may have some interesting ramifications for Hong Kong and China, but it also carries some major implications for the Japanese yen.

Less Hong Kong More China?

If nothing else, the surge in the Chinese yuan symbolizes the country’s stature as the new economic power in the world. China’s stock market has risen to exceed $1 Trillion in capitalization making it the third largest equity market in Asia behind Japan and Hong Kong. In fact, Chinese equity market growth has been so strong that authorities have temporarily clamped down on issuance of any new mutual funds for fear of triggering a stock market bubble. The near term effects of a strong yuan may cause some problems for Hong Kong which has long enjoyed the cheap imports from the mainland and has served as the primary gateway between China and the rest of the world. With the ascension of the yuan, Hong Kong’s role as the financial intermediary for China may begin to diminish as capital flows directly to the mainland.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070112/1168630109448.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 04:43 AM

13jan-reuters--BOJ likely to raise interest rates next week-media

""The Bank of Japan will likely raise the key overnight call rate to 0.5 percent from the current 0.25 percent at its next policy board meeting on Jan. 17-18, Japanese newspapers reported on Saturday.

The Asahi newspaper said the central bank is heading towards lifting rates as the majority of its nine-member board seems to have judged that economic conditions are good enough for a rate hike.

A similar report by the Mainichi newspaper also said board members are increasingly convinced that personal consumption remains on a rising trend after government data showed late last month that the pace of declines in household spending slowed for the second months in a row in November.

The Yomiuri newspaper also reported the central bank would likely raise rates next week, saying central bankers are now in full-fledged negotiations for a policy shift.

Speculation has been growing the BOJ would move next week, although some traders think the BOJ could wait for a while longer given recent sluggishness in consumption and tame growth in prices.""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070113:MTFH13097_2007-01-13_01-54-14_T277231&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 04:46 AM

13jan-retuers--GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks rise, bonds fall after robust retail sales

"" U.S. stocks rose for a third day on Friday, driving the Dow to another record high and ending the week up as energy shares rebounded with oil prices and data showing surprisingly robust December retail sales underscored optimism about economic growth.

U.S. retail sales grew in December at the fastest pace since July. Sales excluding autos, considered a more reliable gauge of consumer spending, jumped 1.0 percent, above a median forecast of a 0.5 percent gain and the sharpest climb since January of last year. For details see [ID:nN12465502]

That pushed down U.S. Treasury prices, lifting yields to their highest levels since late October, after the data supported the view the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates soon.

The sales data added to recent evidence that U.S. economic growth may not have slowed in recent months as much as many investors had estimated, which has left the central bank with little impetus to cut rates to stimulate the economy.

"The whole market is re-estimating when the Fed may ease. It may be on hold for quite awhile," said Jim Cusser, portfolio manager at Waddell & Reed Investment Management in Overland Park, Kansas.""

for info:

U.S. stocks rose for a third day on Friday, driving the Dow to another record high and ending the week up as energy shares rebounded with oil prices and data showing surprisingly robust December retail sales underscored optimism about economic growth.

U.S. retail sales grew in December at the fastest pace since July. Sales excluding autos, considered a more reliable gauge of consumer spending, jumped 1.0 percent, above a median forecast of a 0.5 percent gain and the sharpest climb since January of last year. For details see [ID:nN12465502]

That pushed down U.S. Treasury prices, lifting yields to their highest levels since late October, after the data supported the view the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates soon.
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The sales data added to recent evidence that U.S. economic growth may not have slowed in recent months as much as many investors had estimated, which has left the central bank with little impetus to cut rates to stimulate the economy.

"The whole market is re-estimating when the Fed may ease. It may be on hold for quite awhile," said Jim Cusser, portfolio manager at Waddell & Reed Investment Management in Overland Park, Kansas.

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 08:10 AM

13jan-bloomberg-European Stocks Rise for 3rd Week; Aegon, Deutsche Boerse Gain

By Adria Cimino

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- ""European stocks this week capped the longest winning streak since October after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled he's in no hurry to raise interest rates and investors speculated takeovers will rise.

Trichet's comments ``put off an interest rate increase and this is very good,'' said Vafa Ahmadi, a fund manager at CPR Asset Management in Paris, which oversees $26 billion in assets. ``Merger-and-acquisition activity will continue. If companies consider share prices affordable, there's no reason for us to think the opposite.''

Credit Agricole SA and Aegon NV paced gains by banks and insurers, among the most sensitive to changes in rates. Deutsche Boerse AG led exchanges higher on expectations the industry will benefit from takeovers. Altadis SA rose to a record amid speculation Imperial Tobacco Group Plc may bid for the cigarette maker.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 1.7 percent this week, climbing to a six-year high. The index advanced for a third week. The Stoxx 50 rose 1.3 percent, and the Euro Stoxx 50, a gauge for the 13 nations using the euro, climbed 1.1 percent.

Air France-KLM Group and Ciba Specialty Chemicals AG led airlines and chemical makers higher as oil prices fell to a 19- month low. Energy companies were the worst-performing stocks.

National benchmarks rose in all 18 western European markets except Austria and Ireland. Germany's DAX gained 1.7 percent, France's CAC 40 added 1.8 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE increased 0.3 percent.

Rates on Hold

Credit Agricole, France's second-biggest bank by assets, climbed 3.9 percent. Aegon, the second-largest Dutch insurer, advanced 7.7 percent.

Trichet, at a press conference in Frankfurt on Jan. 11, noted that he was not using the words ``strong vigilance'' to describe the bank's current monitoring of prices development. He has used the phrase in the past to signal that a rate increase is imminent.

Policy makers kept the benchmark rate on hold at 3.5 percent on Jan. 11. The Bank of England the same day unexpectedly raised its key rate by a quarter point to 5.25 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve's target rate currently stands at 5.25 percent. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayEfUc4ezUOQ&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 08:11 AM

13jan-bloomberg--apan's Hokkaido Rocked by 8.2 Quake; Tsunami Warning Canceled

By Hiroshi Suzuki and Steven Bodzin

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- ""About three hours after a magnitude 8.2 earthquake struck off Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, the U.S. Joint Tsunami Warning Center canceled a warning for much of the Pacific Ocean, including coastal areas of Russia, Japan and Hawaii.

A tsunami warning issued by Japan's Meteorological Agency was still in effect for the eastern coast of Hokkaido. A wave about 20 centimeters high (8 inches) was observed at Nemuro at 4:33 p.m. local time, the agency said. Some local governments of cities in eastern of Hokkaido, including Nemuro and Kushiro, had issued evacuation recommendations, Japan's NHK TV reported.

A tsunami, or wave generated by an underwater earthquake or volcanic eruption, can travel hundreds of miles an hour. A warning means there is an imminent threat of a tsunami from an undersea quake or that a tsunami is under way.

The magnitude 8.2 quake was centered 1,060 miles (1,705 km) northeast of Tokyo and 310 miles south-southwest of Severo- Kuril'sk in Russia's Kuril Islands, at a depth of 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) at about 1:23 p.m. Japan time, the U.S. Geological Survey said. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7N1Ol5r7d34&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 08:13 AM

13jan-bloomberg--Bird Flu Kills 2 Indonesians, Raises Resurgence Fear (Update1)

By Aloysius Unditu and Jason Gale

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) --"" Bird flu killed two Indonesian women as health officials prepare for a seasonal resurgence in poultry outbreaks similar to last year, when the virus spread to more than 30 countries in the first quarter.

A 22-year-old from a western part of Java island died early today, two days after she was admitted to Jakarta's Persahabatan hospital, said Joko Suyono, an official at the Health Ministry's avian flu emergency center. She was positive for the H5N1 strain of the virus, the World Health Organization said. A 26-year-old from South Jakarta died late yesterday, Suyono said.

The cases bring to at least four the number of infections recorded in the Southeast Asian nation this year after a hiatus of almost two months. Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Nigeria have confirmed or reported suspected poultry outbreaks the past month, while China and Egypt found new human cases, providing more chances for H5N1 to mutate into a pandemic form. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHtbzznfBReY&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 08:15 AM

13jan-Asian Stocks Have Biggest Weekly Drop in Four Months; SET Gains

By Ian C. Sayson

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- ""Asian stocks had their biggest weekly drop in four months. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., PetroChina Co. and Singapore Petroleum Co. led declines by energy companies after oil tumbled to a 19-month low.

``The weakness in crude prices is negative for the oil and gas sector,'' said Steven Lim, who helps manage $300 million at Daiwa SB Investments in Singapore. ``We could see further consolidation this month as fund managers adjust their holdings.''

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. and Malaysian Airline System Bhd. jumped on speculation lower fuel costs will boost earnings. Sony Corp. surged after the world's biggest maker of video-game consoles said it met its PlayStation 3 shipment target in the U.S. last year.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index fell 0.7 percent to 138.70 this week, its biggest loss since the five days to Sept. 15. Crude oil dropped 5.9 percent this week to $52.99, the lowest since May 2005.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.2 percent. Fast Retailing Co. plunged after Asia's largest clothing retailer cut earnings estimates, prompting UBS AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to recommend investors sell the stock."

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=asIJdpIAgEA4&refer=asia

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 08:18 AM

13jan-bloomberg--What Thailand's Woes Say About Asia's Outlook: William Pesek

By William Pesek

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- ""The leaders of many of the world's fastest-growing economies are gathered on the Philippine island of Cebu this week to consider Asia's future.

Issues up for discussion at the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, include the outlook for growth, integrating the region's economies, terrorism, geopolitical risks, the pros and cons of globalization and imbalances imperiling global stability.

Weighty stuff, indeed. And yet, I'm blowing off Asean this year. Hundreds of journalists attend the gabfest with the best of intensions. Aside from a few nice meals in interesting locales, we tend to have little to show for our time. Ambiguously worded communiques and hollow promises rarely make for good copy.

Instead, I decided to come to Thailand, a place dealing with many of the problems Southeast Asian leaders should be stepping up efforts to fix -- and aren't.

Let's start with terrorism. New Year's Eve bomb blasts in Bangkok that killed three people and injured 42 pierced the veneer of safety and stability that investors came to enjoy from the Asia-Pacific region's ninth-biggest economy. As this nation of 64 million people buzzes about who was behind the attacks, investors are wondering who is in charge.

The bombings followed a Sept. 19 coup that removed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power. The military junta that replaced him has bungled its handling of the economy to comic proportions, reminding investors that even the most-favored emerging markets can be unpredictable places.

Risks Abound

First, Thailand's military leaders unveiled plans to create a ``self-sufficiency economy,'' without explaining what that is. That was followed by a flip-flop on capital controls aimed at taming currency speculation, an episode that spooked markets. This week brought even more confusion about government efforts to restrict foreign investment. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aYh1nlX_jB.8

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 09:01 AM

13jan-fsu-- WHEN, WHY AND HOW STOCKS WILL FALL
by Thomas P. Au, CFA
Author & Market Analyst
January 12, 2007

""I read with interest the recent debate between Doug Kass and Michael Comeau on the street.com. As a bear second only to Doug, I see the potential for a major drop in stock prices. But I’d agree with Michael that “sounding ‘last call’ now seems premature,” mainly because of timing issues. My best guess it that a combination of the U.S. presidential election cycle and the Chinese preparations for the 2008 Olympics will keep the wolf at bay for one more year. These and other positive drivers listed in the next paragraph won’t carry as much force next year, so I’ll have to revisit the bear case then. My views could best be summed up by saying, “stocks will soon fall, but not this year.”

Things are still good for now, but it’s also hard not to see the handwriting on the wall. Earnings growth still appears to be strong, but it figures to weaken during the course of 2007. The Fed is probably done tightening, although other central banks may have just begun. The U.S. housing market appears to have stabilized for now, but the ARM resets are beginning in large numbers this year. A number of elections took place relatively peacefully in Latin America and elsewhere in the developing world last year, even in Venezuela, although the winners of some of them are now starting to rattle the cages.

There are two mean reversion arguments regarding valuations; that U.S. stocks are fairly valued today, relative to trend or as Comeau put it, “stocks today are not terribly overvalued,” and that stocks are well above trend. These arguments are equally valid—depending on which time frame you use. The first applies in comparison to the past ten years or so. The second, and “Kassian” argument applies over a whole “long cycle” of 30-plus years, consisting of a depressed decade between 1975-1984, a middling decade from 1985-1994, and an exuberant decade of 1995-the present. What has happened in past bear markets is that there is a catalyst that yanks stock prices out of their ten (plus) year trend, and toward (and even below) their 30-year trend line.

When I published my year-end piece saying that the bulls were “on serve” because markets almost always go up the year before a Presidential election, Doug then emailed me “Et tu, Brute,” thus accusing me of deserting him. Fair enough, but he hadn’t been making the argument that would have kept me in his camp in 2007. His call for lumpy, mediocre growth,” 1970s style (which I endorse), is a bearish argument, but one that doesn’t cut it in a pre-Presidential election year; 1967, 1971, 1975, and 1979, the analogous years of the last secular bear market, were all up. The real bear argument is that 2007 will shortly become the modern 1931. If that’s the case, the market will go down this year, pre-election year or not. ""

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/au/2007/0112b.html

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 03:09 PM

14jan-ap-- AP-Asian Leaders Create Free Trade Zone

By Eric Talmadge, Associated Press Writer
Southeast Asian Leaders Agree to Turn Their Region Into a Free-Trade Zone by 2015

CEBU, Philippines (AP) -- ""Southeast Asian leaders agreed at their annual summit Saturday to create a tighter political bloc, turn their region into a free-trade zone by 2015 and fight harder against terrorism and poverty.

In a major break with its consensus-based past, the 10-country body has agreed to discuss a plan that would form a more cohesive organization able to sanction or even expel members that do not follow its rules.

The leaders also signed a counterterrorism pact legally binding their countries to share information and training aimed at stemming terror and cross-border crime.

The host of the summit, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, stressed the need to bolster free trade within ASEAN, which includes the Philippines, Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Myanmar, Brunei and Indonesia.

"ASEAN is committed to expanding its trade forum to become the largest in the world," she said in opening the meeting, held under heavy security following three deadly explosions in the southern Philippines days before.

The leaders want to establish the free trade zone by 2015, five years earlier than previously proposed. It will be adopted in two stages, with the six richer nations -- including wealthy Singapore and oil-rich Brunei -- starting the integration in 2010 and the others following later.

China, Japan and South Korea, who will be participating in an expanded summit Sunday involving ASEAN's six "dialogue partners," hope to join the Southeast Asian grouping's economic circle. The other dialogue partners are Australia, New Zealand and India.

"Up until now, we have never had a charter," said former Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas, a member of the group that drafted the recommendations. "We will see how the implementation will go."""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070113/asean_summit.html?.v=2

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 03:11 PM

14jan-ap-- AP--China Foreign Currency Reserves Pass $1T

China Foreign Currency Reserves Passed $1 Trillion in November, Central Bank Researchers Say

BEIJING (AP) -- ""China's foreign currency reserves, already the world's largest, passed US$1 trillion at the end of November, two central bank researchers said in a paper released Saturday.

China's reserves have skyrocketed as the bank drains money from the economy by issuing bonds in an effort to contain inflationary pressures amid a flood of export revenues. The growth has prompted debate in China over how the country should use the mountain of money.

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Reserves reached $1.039 trillion at the end of November, researchers Jiao Jinpu and Liu Xiangyun said in a paper released at a conference in Beijing, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Outside experts had estimated earlier that China's reserves passed the $1 trillion mark in November. Since then, the reserves are believed to have risen to at least $1.1 trillion.

The central bank officially announces the size of its reserves only four times a year, and said in its last quarterly report they had risen to $987.9 billion by the end of September.

That mountain of money is equal to about 40 percent of China's annual economic output and accounts for half of all Asian reserves. Japan has the world's second-biggest foreign reserves, which stood at $875 billion at the end of December.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070113/china_foreign_reserves.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-13-2007, 03:18 PM

14jan-daily fx-- Japanese Yen Freefall

Thursday January 11, 6:43 am ET

By Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com

• Euro Finds Little Relief
• Japanese Yen Loses 120
• British Pound Holding Trendline Support
• Swiss Franc Blows By 61.8%
• Canadian Dollar Ranging
• Australian Dollar False Break
• New Zealand Dollar Constructive

""USDJPY – The USDJPY has broken above the neckline from the 13 month inverse head and shoulders pattern. The door is now open for an assault on the 125.00 figure and ultimately a measured objective at 128.67 – which is where the advance from 108.96 would equal the advance from 101.67 to 121.38. Daily RSI is in overbought so managing risk is key here for longs. On the other hand, RSI just entering extreme territory could mark the beginning of a much stronger move. Support is former resistance at 119.67. ""

for info:
http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070111/1168519415174.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-14-2007, 08:59 AM

14jan-bloomberg--Global Markets Face `Severe Correction,' Faber Says (Update4)

By Ian C. Sayson and Pimm Fox

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- ""Marc Faber, who predicted the U.S. stock market crash in 1987, said global assets are poised for a ``severe correction'' and it's time to sell.

``In the next few months, we could get a severe correction in all asset markets,'' Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York. ``In a selling panic you should buy, but in the buying mania that we have now the wisest course of action is to liquidate.''

Faber, founder and managing director of Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd., advised investors to buy gold in 2001, which has since more than doubled. His company manages about $300 million in assets.

The bullish outlook of traders in everything from bonds, equities and commodities to real estate and art suggests valuations are peaking, Faber said. Last year, the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index of developed stock markets jumped 18 percent, while a survey of Wall Street's biggest bond- trading firms predicted U.S. Treasuries will post the best gains in five years during 2007.

``I am not a great buyer of assets now,'' Faber said. ``We may be in a situation where consumer-price inflation comes back and will have a negative impact on the valuation of assets.''

Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, does have some favorites. Singapore and Vietnam are his top picks in Asia because stocks in Singapore aren't ``terribly expensive compared with interest rates'' in the city-state, while Vietnam's equities have ``incredible potential in the long run.''

Vietnam, Singapore

Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Stock Index more than doubled last year and was Asia's best-performing benchmark. Singapore's Straits Times Index climbed 27 percent, beating a 15 percent increase in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index.

So far in 2007, Vietnam's index has surged 10 percent, again leading gains in the region, and Singapore's is up 0.6 percent. The MSCI has dropped 1 percent.

Faber recommends investors steer clear of shares in the world's biggest developing economies after the emerging markets in 2006 outperformed their developed counterparts for a fifth straight year.

``Emerging markets could get kicked in the next three months so I'd be careful of buying Russian shares,'' Faber said. ``I'd also be careful of buying China and India shares now.''

Russia's dollar-denominated RTS Index surged 75 percent last year, while the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies, jumped 94 percent. India's Sensex Index, which more than quadrupled in the past five years, is valued at 25 times estimated earnings.

Thailand, Japan

On a more positive note, Japanese stocks may prove good bets this year, Faber said. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 6.9 percent in 2006 and the broader Topix index added 1.9 percent, the smallest gains among benchmarks for the world's 10 biggest markets. "

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afYGFBA.L8PQ&refer=home

Ichiro

01-14-2007, 08:05 PM

15jan-bloomberg--Emerging Stock Markets Face the $1 Trillion Curse: David Wilson

By David Wilson

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- ""Will $1 trillion become a curse for the four-year rally in emerging-market stocks, as it was for the Internet bubble of the 1990s?

The question arises because the value of China's stock market exceeded this threshold yesterday and Russia's did so last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Before then, no emerging market had ever been so large.

Cisco Systems Inc., the world's largest maker of computer- networking equipment, looked like it might become the first $1 trillion company by market value in February 2000. At least it did to Paul Weinstein, then an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, who wrote about the possibility.

Within two months, Cisco's shares reached their peak and the bubble started to burst. The stock plunged 90 percent from its all-time high and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 78 percent from its record by October 2002.

Emerging markets have surged almost as much as the Nasdaq did in its heyday. Morgan Stanley Capital International's Emerging Markets Index rose 312 percent in the last four years -- eight percentage points less than the U.S. index's 1995-1999 rally.

Chinese and Russian stocks are largely responsible for the gains. Eight of the 40 most heavily weighted companies in MSCI's index are based in China. The total is the largest among the 25 countries represented. Russia has four, including OAO Gazprom, whose 4.5 percent weight is the highest among its 851 members.

Local Similarities

The parallels between the two countries go further.

Both have energy producers among the 10 most-valuable companies worldwide. Gazprom, the world's biggest natural-gas provider, is fifth. PetroChina Co. is ninth, higher than every other oil company except Exxon Mobil Corp., No. 1 overall.

Both had initial public offerings last year that were among the 10 largest ever. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. raised $22 billion, a record. Bank of China Ltd. made an $11.2 billion IPO. Russia's OAO Rosneft had a $10.6 billion sale. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_wilson&sid=aVacwHI2pvAQ

Ichiro

01-14-2007, 08:08 PM

15jan-ap-- AP--Yuan's Rise Squeezes Chinese Exporters

By Joe Mcdonald, AP Business Writer.

China's Exporters Suffering As Currency Rise Squeezes Revenues

BEIJING (AP) --"" Dependent on exports to the United States, the Hebei Lihua Hat Co. saw its profits wiped out as China's currency rose steadily against the dollar over the past year.

Hebei Lihua, which sold 90 percent of its 4 million hats to overseas markets last year, fought back by pushing its 1,800 workers to cut waste and find cheaper raw materials. It tried to boost revenues by introducing a new waterproof hat.

Yet even those efforts might be inadequate, said Wang Zhenhao, the business manager for Hebei Lihua, located in Baoding, a city southwest of Beijing.

"If the appreciation continues, we will probably lose money," Wang said.

Chinese companies that supply U.S. retailers with billions of dollars worth of toys, furniture and other goods every year face a painful squeeze as the yuan rises, setting off a race to cut costs or find new products that Americans will pay more for.

Beijing has let the yuan creep up by 6 percent against the dollar since July 2005, easing currency controls as part of long-term efforts to defuse strains caused by a multibillion-dollar influx of export revenues and investment. The yuan most recently was trading at about 7.81 to the dollar.

Washington is pressing Beijing to let the yuan, also known as the renminbi, or people's money, rise faster. It says the yuan is undervalued, giving Chinese exporters an unfair price advantage and widening the U.S. trade deficit with China.

The United States says its trade gap with China for the first 11 months of 2006 reached an all-time high of $213.5 billion, surpassing the full-year record of $202 billion set the previous year.""

info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070114/china_dollar_blues.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-14-2007, 08:18 PM

15jan-yahoo singapore--ASEAN's dream of economic union far from reality

""Southeast Asian nations have pledged to create one of the world's largest free-trade blocs by 2015, but for a region that runs from super-rich Brunei to impoverished Myanmar, analysts wonder how realistic that goal is.

At their annual summit Saturday, leaders of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) affirmed their strong commitment to accelerate the establishment of a free-trade zone by 2015.

The move would liberalise the movement of goods, services, investment and capital across a region of almost 570 million people, around one-tenth of the world's population.

"ASEAN is committed to expanding its trade area to create one of the world's greatest trading blocs by 2015," Philippine President Gloria Arroyo proclaimed when she opened the summit.

But the grouping's members range from the modern, advanced island state of Singapore with a per capita GDP of some 28,600 dollars to poor communist Laos, where per capita GDP is around 2,000 dollars.

Singapore's elder statesman and one of ASEAN's founders, Lee Kuan Yew, said in an interview last year: "To have one currency, a borderless community, I don't see that, not yet."

Michael Clancy, an economist and CEO of the Philippine Business Leaders Forum, said ASEAN was moving very slowly towards economic integration.

"It has adopted the European model but unlike Europe, it does not see the same urgency at the rising economic might of China and globalisation.

"ASEAN may boast a market of more than 550 million people but it is a market fragmented with huge disparities between member states," he told AFP.

China currently dwarfs ASEAN in terms of attracting foreign direct investment -- 60 billion dollars in 2005 compared to 30 billion for ASEAN, of which more than 60 percent went to Singapore.

Southeast Asia also has much work to do on harmonising regulations."

for info:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/070114/1/45yg4.html

Ichiro

01-14-2007, 08:22 PM

15jan-retuers--Japan govt should ask for BOJ rate hike delay -LDP

TOKYO, Jan 14 (Reuters) -"" If the Bank of Japan proposes a vote on whether to raise interest rates at its policy meeting this week, the government should call for a postponement of the vote, a senior ruling party lawmaker was quoted as saying on Sunday.

The comment by Hidenao Nakagawa, secretary general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, was the clearest opposition yet by senior Japanese policymakers to a possible BOJ rate hike.

Speculation is growing that the central bank could raise the overnight call rate to 0.5 percent from the current 0.25 percent as early as its two-day policy board meeting ending on Thursday.

"The government has the obligation to request a postponement of the vote," Nakagawa was quoted by the Kyodo news agency as saying in a speech in Aichi prefecture in central Japan.

Representatives from the Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet Office cannot vote on monetary policy decisions by the independent central bank, but they can voice opinions and have the right to request postponements of votes at policy meetings.

Nakagawa suggested that the BOJ law, which governs the BOJ and gives the central bank independence, may need to be revised if the BOJ were to turn down any government request for postponing a vote and decides to raise rates, Kyodo said.

"If (the BOJ) cannot share the view of the economy and policy goals with the government, that would be a serious flaw of the current legal system," Nakagawa said.""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070114:MTFH28955_2007-01-14_12-45-40_T282239&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-14-2007, 08:25 PM

16jan-yahoo singapore-German economy on a roll as reforms pay off

""Germany, once derided as the "sick man of Europe", has suddenly bounced back with its economy booming and budget overspending slashed after long and painful economic reforms.

Only a few years ago, Germany, with the eurozone's biggest economy, also had the lowest growth and one of the highest deficits.

But data published at the end of last week showed that Germany's economic fortunes improved dramatically last year when growth hit a six-year high point and the public deficit was hacked back by a third.

Growth of German gross domestic product (GDP) nearly tripled to 2.5 percent in 2006, from 0.9 percent in 2005, the federal statistics office Destatis calculated in preliminary figures on Thursday.

It was the third-biggest increase in annual GDP since re-unification in 1990.

And finance minister Peer Steinbrueck proclaimed on Friday that the country's public deficit -- which has exceeded EU limits every year since 2002 -- had been cut by more than a third, and now measured only 1.9 percent of GDP, down from 3.2 percent in 2005.

Analysts said that Germany was reaping the rewards of some very tough economic reforms, initiated by the previous Social Democrat-led government under Gerhard Schroeder and carried on by the current left-right coalition administration under Angela Merkel.

"After a wrenching five-year adjustment crisis, Germany is reaping the rewards of its strenuous efforts," diagnosed Bank of America economist Holger Schmieding.

"Pronounced wage restraint, some structural reforms, as well as cuts in taxes and government expenditure have led Germany to become a better place to invest in again," he said.

The upturn, traditionally driven by exports, had broadened and was now being powered by a pick-up in domestic demand on the back of booming investment and recovering private consumption.

Inroads were finally being made into the German jobless queues, with unemployment falling to 10.8 percent in 2006 from 11.7 percent in 2005. And the German trade surplus hit a record high in November, putting Germany in line to become the world's champion exporter for the fourth year in a row.

Temporary factors, such as the World Cup soccer championships, had distorted the country's economic performance to the upside in 2006.

And the rise in value-added or sales tax (VAT) from 16 percent to 19 percent from January 1 would put the brakes on some of the momentum in 2007, said the DIW economic think tank in Berlin on Friday.

But "there is no sign of an end to the current upturn," DIW insisted.""

for info:

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/070114/1/45yga.html

Ichiro

01-15-2007, 01:44 AM

15jan-ap- AP-Japan Stocks Higher; Dollar Down Vs. Yen

Japanese Stocks Higher; Dollar Falls Against Yen

TOKYO (AP) -- ""Japanese stocks rose Monday morning, led by gains in airline and financial issues. The dollar was lower against the yen.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index added 154.85 points, or 0.91 percent, to 17,211.86 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange at the end of morning session Monday.

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The Nikkei maintained its momentum from Friday -- when it rose 1.30 percent to finish trading at 17,057.01 points -- on the back of a strong performance by U.S. markets at the end of last week.

On Wall Street Friday, the Dow Jones industrials marked their 24th record close since the start of October as investors embraced robust U.S. economic data and shrugged off several profit warnings. The Dow rose 41.10, or 0.33 percent, to 12,556.08.

Airline and financial stocks were among the early gainers Monday in Tokyo. Japan Airlines rose 4.7 percent to 246 yen (US$2.04) on reports it will secure new funding for restructuring efforts. Nikko Cordial added 3.4 percent to 1,310 yen (US$10.89) following reports Canadian investment firm Mackenzie Financial takes a 5.74 percent stake in the company.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070114/japan_markets.html?.v=2

Ichiro

01-15-2007, 01:47 AM

15jan-reuters-UPDATE 2-Japan Nov machinery orders top forecast, BOJ eyed

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO, Jan 15 (Reuters) - ""Machinery orders at Japanese firms rose more than expected in November from October, painting a positive picture of capital spending and reinforcing some market expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise rates this week.

Analysts said the data is unlikely to affect monetary policy directly as the BOJ is focused more on whether personal consumption and prices will pick up from their recent softness.

But the strong reading pushed up the yen and sent Japanese government bond futures lower as market players took it as another factor paving the way for a possible interest rate rise this week.

Core private-sector machinery orders, regarded as a leading indicator of corporate capital spending, rose 3.8 percent in November from October, for the second straight month of increase, data showed on Monday.

That beat economists' consensus forecast for a rise of 3.4 percent, underscoring the view that robust capital spending will underpin the economy even as personal consumption remains slack.

"The headline figure is stronger than market forecasts and is favourable for the BOJ to raise interest rates" this week, said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070115:MTFH37255_2007-01-15_02-41-23_T32379&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-15-2007, 01:51 AM

15jan-retuers--FOREX-Yen edges up as BOJ rate move seen more likely (note: If BOJ does not increase the interest rate, the chances are high that the Yen will depreciate to 122 yen to the USdollar).

TOKYO, Jan 15 (Reuters) - ""The yen edged up from a 13-month low against the dollar on Monday after data showed Japanese machinery orders beat forecasts, possibly paving the way for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week.

Core machinery orders rose 3.8 percent in November from a month earlier, above market expectations for a 3.4 percent gain and showing that steady capital spending is underpinning economic growth.

Investors believe the BOJ is leaning towards raising overnight rates to 0.5 percent, which would be the highest since 1995, despite opposition from senior government officials who have warned the central bank to be cautious on policy.

Ministers worry that raising rates too quickly could undermine the economy's recovery from a decade of stagnation.

One senior ruling party official, Hidenao Nakagawa, said over the weekend that the government should consider asking the BOJ to postpone any proposed vote to raise rates at a two-day policy meeting that ends on Thursday, Kyodo news agency reported.

But even a rate rise would not erode the huge yield advantage of other major currencies, and the BOJ is seen taking a while longer before another round of monetary tightening.

"Even if the BOJ hikes, it won't be a strong catalyst for yen strength," said Masafumi Yamamoto, a currency strategist at Nikko Citigroup in Tokyo.

"The decision will be very interesting: whether the BOJ hikes or not, whether the decision is unanimous or not, and whether the government asks for a postponement. The risks to the yen will be to the downside," Yamamoto said. ""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070115:MTFH36296_2007-01-15_00-57-28_T290534&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

01-15-2007, 07:14 AM

15jan-bloomberg-Japan's Topix Index Climbs to 8-Month High on U.S. Retail Sales

By Patrick Rial and Makiko Suzuki

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- ""Japanese stocks advanced, with the Topix index climbing to the highest in eight months, after U.S. retail sales had their biggest increase in five months and domestic machinery orders rose more than analysts estimated.

Honda Motor Co. paced gains by exporters on expectations sales will rise. Banks such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. led gains by lenders as speculation increased the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing costs this week. Higher interest rates allow lenders to charge more for their loans.

``U.S. consumption is solid overall as seen in the retail sales figure and that means exporter shares will also perform well,'' said Junichi Misawa, who oversees $655 million in funds at STB Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The gain in bank stocks shows market sentiment is leaning toward a rate increase this week.''

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 152.91 or 0.9 percent, to 17,209.92 in Tokyo and the broader Topix index climbed 19.31, or 1.2 percent, to 1704.58, the highest since May 11. Gauges tracking exporters and lenders accounted for almost half of the Topix's gain.

Honda, Japan's third-largest carmaker, jumped 80 yen, or 1.7 percent, to 4,690. Sony Corp., maker of the PlayStation 3 video-game console, surged 140 yen, or 2.5 percent, to 5,700. Nissan Motor Co., Japan's No. 2 automaker, rose 20 yen, or 1.4 percent, to 1,461. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aU4vuODYhWV4&refer=japan

Ichiro

01-15-2007, 07:15 AM

15jan-bloomberg--Yen Rises as Machinery Orders Raise Odds of BOJ Rate Increase

By Kosuke Goto and Stanley White

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- ""The yen gained for a second day against the dollar after a report showed accelerating growth in machinery orders, boosting the Bank of Japan's case for raising interest rates.

Investors see a 76 percent chance the BOJ will increase borrowing costs this week, up from 66 percent on Jan. 12, according to Credit Suisse Group calculations. Rising rates may encourage Japanese investors to keep money at home and will make raising funds in yen to buy higher-yielding assets more expensive.

``Traders took a good look at the machinery orders data and are buying yen,'' said Osao Iizuka, head of foreign-exchange trading at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. ``The numbers support speculation the BOJ will raise rates this week.''

The yen climbed to 120.25 per dollar at 8 a.m. in London compared with 120.32 late in New York on Jan. 12, when it reached 120.74, the weakest since December 2005. Japan's currency was also at 155.68 per euro compared with 155.50 on Jan. 12. The yen may rise to 120 per dollar today, Iizuka said.

Non-government machinery orders, excluding shipping and utilities, climbed 3.8 percent from October, the first back-to- back gains since 2005, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 3.5 percent increase.

Thirty-one of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict policy makers will raise the key overnight lending rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.50 percent on Jan. 18. Credit Suisse calculates the chances of an increase based on trading in contracts for the exchange of interest payments. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aBDp4R..1zK0&refer=japan

Ichiro

01-15-2007, 07:17 AM

15jan-bloomberg--European Stocks May Gain as Oil Rebounds; BP, Shell Might Rise

By Sarah Thompson

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- ""European stocks may climb, led by BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, after oil advanced for a second day in New York.

Smiths Group Plc, the U.K. builder of refueling equipment for Boeing Co. planes, is expected to rise after General Electric Co. agreed to buy its aerospace unit for $4.8 billion. EMI Group Plc might gain on takeover speculation.

Futures on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, a benchmark for the 13 countries using the euro, added 24 to 4219.00 at 7:41 a.m. in London. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index is seen rising 9 to 6248, according to CMC Markets.

European stocks climbed to a six-year high last week on speculation shares in the region are still cheap relative to the outlook for economic and earnings growth. U.S. markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

There are expectations ``the U.S. economy will now see a very moderate slowdown in growth,'' which is helping markets, said Claire Collingwood, a trader at CMC Markets in London.

BP, Europe's second-largest oil company, and Shell, the region's largest, may rise. Algeria's oil minister said OPEC members are in ``consultations'' on a recent drop in prices, raising speculation that the group may bring forward output cuts. ""

For info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aSudbgVXV7DA&refer=europe

Ichiro

01-18-2007, 07:45 AM

18jan-bloomberg--BOJ Keeps Rate Unchanged on Consumer Spending Concern (Update9)

By Mayumi Otsuma

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- ""The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent, averting a clash with government officials who say household spending and inflation are too weak to withstand higher borrowing costs.

The decision was split six-to-three, the bank said today in Tokyo, prompting traders to bet on a February increase. Board members were divided over the outlook for consumer spending, Governor Toshihiko Fukui said.

Government calls for restraint this week spurred speculation the bank would wait for the release of fourth-quarter data next month to gauge the strength of consumer prices and spending. Fukui plans to raise rates, the lowest among major economies, to head off a repeat of the 1980s investment bubble that triggered a decade of stagnation.

``The impression that they caved to political pressure is unavoidable,'' said Noriko Hama, professor of economics at Doshisha Business School in Kyoto. ``It's not a bad decision, given the statistics, but it certainly does not look good for the BOJ.''

Investors increased bets the bank will raise rates in February to a 69 percent chance, up from 42 percent before the decision, according to Credit Suisse Group. Credit Suisse calculates the chances of a quarter-point rate increase based on trading in contracts for the exchange of interest payments.

``Three board members voted against the decision, leaving the possibility that more members may vote for a rate increase next month,'' said Maki Shimizu, an interest-rate strategist in Tokyo at UBS Securities Japan Ltd. The previous six decisions to keep rates on hold were unanimous.

Consumer Spending

The yen fell to 121.28 per dollar from 120.67 late in New York yesterday. It earlier touched a 13-month low of 121.33. Tadahiko Nashimoto, director of foreign exchange at Barclays Plc in Tokyo, said the yen may weaken to 125 this month.

The yield on five-year notes climbed 2.5 basis points 1.235 percent at 4:40 p.m. in Tokyo.

Fukui said the bank didn't notify the government of its decision in advance. The policy board's analysis was entirely based on economic and price data, he said.

``Developments in Japan's economy have so far deviated slightly downward from the outlook'' made in October, the central bank said earlier today. The economy and prices are still expected to ``develop broadly in line'' with expectations. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a7tZdHy1mEIs&refer=asia

Ichiro

01-18-2007, 07:46 AM

18jan-bloomberg--sian Stocks Climb to Two-Week High; Takeda, Woodside Advance

By Stuart Kelly

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- ""Asian stocks rose to a two-week high. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. led gains among Japanese drugmakers after two companies said they are in merger talks, boosting speculation there will be further industry takeovers.

``Pharmaceuticals is a very, very profitable business, so they have a lot of cash to use for things like buyouts,'' said Masaki Iso, who oversees $7.3 billion at Yasuda Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The M&A trend is now expanding into industries such as pharmaceuticals. The drug market is not expanding, so it's a good candidate.''

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia's second-biggest oil producer, and PetroChina Co., China's largest oil company, rose after crude oil prices rebounded from a 19-month low. Samsung Electronics Co., the world's No. 2 chipmaker, fell after Apple Inc.'s profit forecast trailed expectations, raising concern sales to its customer could decline.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 140.58 as of 4:30 p.m. in Tokyo, set for the highest close since Jan. 4. Measures of health-care and energy stocks rose 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent respectively, the biggest gains among the benchmark's 10 industry groups. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aHdT6lgKefZc&refer=asia

Ichiro

01-18-2007, 07:48 AM

18jan-bloomberg--European Stocks Advance, Led by BP, Shell After Oil Rebounds

By Sarah Thompson

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) --""European stocks advanced, pushed higher by BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, after crude oil rose for a second day in New York.

Assurances Generales de France Allianz SE climbed after Allianz SE, Europe's biggest insurer, offered to buy the rest of the company for about 10 billion euros ($13 billion). Alstom SA gained after sales rose on demand for railcars from Asia.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index climbed 0.4 percent to 373.31 at 8:12 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 50 and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro, added 0.5 percent.

U.S. stocks dropped yesterday on concern technology companies will report earnings below analysts' estimates and following government inflation reports that may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates.

Reports today from the U.S. on consumer prices and new housing may provide investors with more signals about inflation in Europe's biggest trading partner.

``Oil stocks will get another boost,'' from rising energy prices, said Andrew French, an equity salesman at E*Trade Securities Ltd. in London. ``Consumer price data which will give us a clearer picture on the inflationary environment.''

BP, Europe's second-largest oil company, added 0.7 percent to 540 pence while Shell, the region's largest, advanced 0.8 percent to 1729 pence. ""

for info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aZBRkm2JEJI4&refer=europe

Ichiro

01-18-2007, 01:14 PM

18jan-bloomberg--Dollar Approaches 4-Year High Against Yen; Consumer Prices Jump

By Min Zeng and Ye Xie

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- ""The dollar approached a four-year high against the yen and gained versus the euro after government reports showed U.S. consumer prices in December increased more than forecast, and housing starts rose.

The bulk of the dollar's rally came earlier today after the Bank of Japan held its benchmark rate at 0.25 percent. Traders boosted the dollar further as the U.S. statistics bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25 percent this quarter.

``The Fed is still justified to remain concerned on inflation,'' said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets Inc., a unit of Canada's biggest bank by assets. ``The dollar is getting support here.''

The dollar climbed to 121.52 yen at 8:59 a.m. in New York from 120.67 yen late yesterday, and reached 121.60 yen, the highest since March 21, 2003. The dollar advanced to $1.2917 per euro from $1.2938 yesterday.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in December after being unchanged in November, the Labor Department said today. That compared with the median forecast of 0.4 percent increase in a Bloomberg survey.

Builders broke ground on new homes at an annual rate of 1.642 million last month, up 4.5 percent from November's pace, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits jumped 5.5 percent, the most in four years.

Zero Chance

Interest-rate futures show traders saw zero chance the Fed will cut its target overnight lending rate between banks in March, down from a 100 percent likelihood seen last month. Policy makers next meet to set rates on Jan. 31.

Fed Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said the central bank may still need to take action should inflation fail to keep slowing. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8K_MMUyVxtc&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

01-18-2007, 01:16 PM

18jan-bloomberg-U.S. Consumer Prices Rose 0.5%; Core Rate Rose 0.2% (Update2)

By Joe Richter

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) --"" U.S. consumer prices accelerated in December for the first time in four months, suggesting the easing of inflationary pressures that the Federal Reserve is counting on will be slow.

The consumer price index increased 0.5 percent last month, the most since April and reflecting higher costs for gasoline and natural gas, after no change in November, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer inflation rose 0.2 percent, following no change a month earlier.

The figures come on the heels of slower economic growth in the last half of 2006 that will allow Federal Reserve policy makers the luxury of holding interest rates steady this quarter, economists said. San Francisco Fed Bank President Janet Yellen said yesterday that rates may be high enough to slow inflation.

``For now, core inflation is tame enough for the Fed to be able to sit back and wait and see what happens,'' said Jim O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said the central bank's Open Market Committee may still need to take action should inflation fail to keep slowing.

``It is difficult to know where the inflation trend will settle out,'' Pianalto said at a speech in Dayton, Ohio today. ``There is still a risk that the underlying inflation trend will not continue to improve, in which case, the FOMC will need to respond with the appropriate policy actions.'' ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=annyP4wvUtmQ&refer=us

Ichiro

01-18-2007, 07:07 PM

19jan-ap- AP-Bernanke Warns Budget Could Hurt Economy

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Bernanke Warns Strain From Retiring Baby Boomers Could 'Seriously Weaken' Economy

WASHINGTON (AP) --"" Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Congress Thursday that the economy could be gravely hurt if Social Security and Medicare aren't revamped and urged lawmakers to tackle the nation's thorny fiscal issues sooner rather than later.

"If early and meaningful action is not taken, the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened," Bernanke told the Senate Budget Committee.

It marked the Fed chief's most forceful warning to date on the potential problems facing the United States with the looming retirement of 78 million baby boomers, the oldest of whom will start retiring next year.

This huge wave of retirees will hit the U.S. budget as well as the economy, he said.

"The longer we wait, the more severe, the more draconian, the more difficult the objectives are going to be. I think the right time to start was about 10 years ago," he told lawmakers when questioned about the urgency of the situation.

Absent policy changes by Congress and the White House, rising budget deficits are likely in the years ahead to increase the amount of federal debt outstanding to unprecedented levels, Bernanke said.

That could propel interest rates for consumers and businesses upward, which would be a worrisome development, he said.

"Thus a vicious cycle may develop in which large deficits lead to rapid growth in debt and interest payments, which in turn adds to subsequent deficits," he said. Ultimately, a big expansion of the nation's debt "would spark a fiscal crisis, which could be addressed only by very sharp spending cuts or tax increases or both," Bernanke warned.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070118/bernanke.html?.v=17

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:07 PM

20jam-bloomberg--China's Stocks Rise, Led by Automakers: World's Biggest Mover

By Zhang Shidong and Yidi Zhao

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) --"" China's stocks rose to a record, completing the biggest weekly jump in eight months. Shanghai Automotive Co. led gains by automakers on speculation lower gasoline prices will encourage more people to purchase cars.

``The demand for automobiles has been very strong since November,'' said Lu Yizhen, who oversees about $640 million at Citic-Prudential Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``The lower oil price will further strengthen sales of cars in China.''

China Merchants Bank Co. rallied after the lender, the country's most profitable, estimated 2006 earnings surged more than 50 percent as it took market share from the four biggest state-owned banks. China Vanke Co. led a rebound among property stocks after the government said changes to its land tax collection policy won't boost developers' tax bills.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks yuan- denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, climbed 79, or 3.4 percent, to close at 2396.09, the largest increase among markets included in global benchmarks. This week's 10.2 percent gain is the biggest weekly advance since the period ended May 12.

Shanghai Automotive, Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. and FAW Car Co. all surged by the exchanges' 10 percent daily limit. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=ad9HgCz_Qa5M&refer=china

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:08 PM

20jan-bloomberg--U.K. December Retail Sales Rise the Most in 18 Months (Update6)

By Jennifer Ryan

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) --"" U.K. retail sales rose the most in 18 months in December as faster economic growth spurred shoppers to increase spending on laptops and on gifts over the Internet during the Christmas period.

Sales climbed 1.1 percent from November, the most since June 2005, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted an increase of 0.6 percent, according to the median forecast of 34 respondents to a Bloomberg News survey. On the year, sales rose 3.7 percent.

Evidence that growth in consumer spending survived two interest-rate increases last year, exceeding both the U.S. and Europe, may spur the Bank of England to raise borrowing costs again after a third move on Jan. 11. Inflation reached 3 percent in December, the highest in almost 10 years and a percentage point above the central bank's target.

``Consumer spending is still strong and this reinforces the possibility of another rate hike as soon as February,'' said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB Group Plc in London.

Policy makers Andrew Sentance and Timothy Besley said this week concern about rising prices supported a surprise quarter- point increase in the benchmark interest rate Jan. 11 to 5.25 percent. The central bank forecast in November inflation would spike at the turn of the year and start declining from the second quarter as the effect of higher energy costs in 2006 wears off.

Rate Bets

Futures trading suggests investors expect one more rate increase this quarter. The implied rate on the March futures contract was unchanged at 5.77 percent as of 12:08 a.m. today in London. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ahQaELn9TiGA&refer=europe

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:10 PM

20jan-bloomberg--BOJ Keeps Carry Trade Alive and Well -- for Now: William Pesek

By William Pesek

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) --"" There has been another delay in the great yen rally that investors have been waiting for, and Bank of Japan policies are to blame.

By leaving its benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent yesterday, the BOJ appeased politicians arguing the economy is too fragile to withstand higher borrowing costs. It also mollified investors who have borrowed cheaply in yen and parked those funds in higher-yielding assets overseas.

The upshot is that the BOJ may have provoked a new wave of so-called yen-carry trades that will add to distortions in the Japanese economy, as well as the global one.

In a recent report to clients, analysts at Bridgewater Associates Inc., a money-management firm in Westport, Connecticut, said they were ``getting queasy about the amount of money that's going into carry trades, driving down spreads and making these positions more risky.''

What worries observers is that declining market volatility and increased liquidity are encouraging investors to take on more leverage. ``Low yields and credit spreads have also created much lower expected returns and much higher price risk, further increasing the markets' riskiness,'' Bridgewater argued.

One wonders whether the BOJ's decision to leave interest rates alone will compound the risk by keeping the yen low.

``The BOJ's easy monetary policy will increase the volatility of the currency and, accordingly, the economy through the yen-carry trade,'' says Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan Securities Japan Co. ``This is deja-vu from the late 1980s. The carry trade is creating a currency bubble this time.''

A New Bubble?

It has been a while since the word ``bubble'' has been used to describe Japan, and respected economists such as Kanno don't utter it flippantly. While it's rarely thought of in the context of BOJ rate decisions, the yen-carry trade is a growing risk to policy makers' control over the world's No. 2 economy.

Debates about the carry trade tend to focus on overseas markets. In recent years, yen borrowings have made their way into Shanghai and Mumbai real estate, Google Inc. shares, Zambian treasury bills, the Thai baht, bars of gold, you name it. If the yen suddenly shot higher and investors unwound their carry trades, the world economy would feel the pain.

Yen-carry trades have paid off handsomely for many investors. Borrowing for next to nothing in yen and parking the funds in, say, 10-year U.S. Treasuries can provide a twofold payoff through a yield difference of 3 percentage points or more and through the dollar's rise versus the yen. The latter dynamic boosts profits by the time they are converted back to yen.

Risks Abound

The trade can also go wrong -- very wrong. In late 1998, for example, Russia's debt default accelerated the implosion of Long- Term Capital Management LP and caused a panic in markets. Investors scaling back their positions drove the yen up 20 percent in less than two months.

While a replay might seem unlikely, a plunge in the dollar, major terrorist attacks or a bird-flu pandemic are but a few of the events that could blow up the yen-carry trade. And this time, the amount of yen-related leverage could be much greater than in 1998. There also are many more hedge funds now; some no doubt are highly leveraged and vulnerable to a yen rally.

It's all hard to quantify. If officials at the International Monetary Fund, U.S. Federal Reserve or Bank for International Settlements have a handle on the magnitude of the carry trade, they're not saying much. JPMorgan estimates the size to be about 40 trillion yen ($331 billion), which is bigger than Austria's economy. The trade may be much larger than that, and far more powerful when you factor in leveraging. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=a4bOM8CWhADc

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:12 PM

20jan-bloomberg--Fewer Yuan in Wallets Is China's Next Headache: Andy Mukherjee

By Andy Mukherjee

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) --"" China's households are stashing fewer yuan under their pillows. And they aren't carrying as many of them in their wallets as they did in the 1990s.

According to a study by World Bank researchers in Beijing, the ratio of currency in circulation to bank deposits has halved over the past decade.

China's reserve money -- currency held by the public and funds kept by banks at the central bank -- mostly grew between 8 percent and 9 percent last year, monthly data show.

Expansion in M2, a broad measure of money supply that also includes all bank deposits, was about twice as fast as reserve- money growth.

What's going on?

In the language of economists, the money multiplier, which, crudely put, is M2 divided by reserve money, is rising.

It's now more than 5, compared with less than 4 at the start of the decade.

This happens when people prefer money in the bank to cash in hand, or when banks start keeping a lower share of depositors' money as reserves with the central bank.

Both these factors may be at work in today's China. ""

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a_zNCkPaHPQg&refer=columnist_mukherjee

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:15 PM

20jan-dialy fx-- US Dollar Fails to Rally Despite Stronger CPI and Housing Data
Thursday January 18, 4:12 pm ET
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

• US Dollar Fails to Rally Despite Stronger CPI and Housing Data
• Canadian Dollar Rebounds as Strong Inflows Offsets Drop in Oil Prices

""Japanese Yen – The Bank of Japan delivered by a big surprise last night by keeping interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent. Although the futures market was pricing in a 30 percent chance of a rate hike yesterday, the day prior, it was pricing in an 80 percent chance. For the first time since the last interest rate hike in July, the decision was not unanimous. Six out of the nine members voted for unchanged rates while 3 voted for a rate hike. Concerns about economic growth seem to be weighing on the central bank despite the potentially stimulative impact of a weak Yen. According to their monthly report, the “developments in the Japanese economy have deviated slightly downward” from their October report which can be backed up by the recent deterioration in economic data. Last night, leading indicators dropped from 20 percent to 18.2 percent while the tertiary activity index came out weaker than expected. The latest decision by the central bank keeps carry trades in play, but at the same time, it also pushes the market’s expectations for a rate hike out to February. Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in a 70 percent chance of a February hike. Whether or not the central bank delivers that will depend on how economic data fares over the next month. If the data does not reflect improvements in the economy, the central bank may have to delay a rate hike once again.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070118/1169158403445.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:18 PM

20jan-aily FX-Pound Sells Off as Retail Not Enough

By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

""After a tumultuous day yesterday following the BoJ decision to keep rates on hold, the currency market spend most of the night marking time as traders digested the news flow and prices consolidated in tight ranges. Many analysts have criticized the BoJ for caving in to political pressure, but the fact of the matter is that Japanese fundamentals provided little support for further tightening at this times as the Japanese consumer clearly went into a funk at the end of Q3. Furthermore, as many commentators have pointed out Japan’s financing costs of its federal debt – the largest in the industrialized world – now account for more than 25% of all tax revenues and that fact may have weighed on the banks decision to hold off on tightening until monetary officials were certain that Japanese economy could absorb the shock. With the rate news now behind us the pair is likely to range trade between 120-122 level until Japanese economic data provides a clearer picture on whether the bank will finally act in February or will be forced to hold off for yet another month. With the rest of the G-3 block still showing a tightening bias the yen has clearly become the weakest link in the chain and the unit’s movements going forward are likely to be inextricably tied to the performance of the Japanese consumer.

Meanwhile pound sold off as strong UK retail sales data was not enough to overcome a wave of profit taking. After rallying for 6 out of the last 7 days, cable ran in to a slew of offers at the 1.9770 level despite the fact that Retail Sales handily beat estimates printing at 1.1% versus 0.5%. However, the price correction in cable may well be short lived as UK data continues to impress and points to further rate hikes from the BoE going forward. The only danger to the pound bullish scenario would come from a marked slowdown in UK’s housing market. Next week brings the housing data from the Rightmove survey and traders will pay careful attention to this news given the surprising slip in RICS readings this week.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070119/1169207969988.html?.v=1

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:20 PM

20jan- MarketWatch-Dollar little changed after U.S. consumer sentiment data

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --""The dollar traded little changed against other major currencies Friday, climbing to session highs after a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment improved to a three-year high.

The consumer sentiment index rose to 98.0 in January from 91.7 in December, according to research at the University of Michigan released on Friday. The increase was well above the consensus forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch who had expected sentiment to rise to 92.0. The current conditions index rose to 112.5 in January, the highest since July 2005, while the expectations index rose to 88.7, the highest since December 2004.

"The much stronger than expected" sentiment data "matched the rumored number exactly," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital. "Lower oil prices, milder weather, strong labor market all point to a positive US consumer mindset, but it does not feel sufficient to jar the market out of the ranges we have established this week.""

fro info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm/070119/83afce0ccd4945c3ae7ebff4f1520b96.html?.v=4

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:30 PM

20jan- AP-Japan Shares Retreat From 9-Month Highs

Japanese Shares Retreat From 9-Month Highs; Oil, Banks, Tech Stocks Drop

TOKYO (AP) -- ""Japanese stocks fell Friday as investors took a breather after the market hit a nine-month high the previous day. Bank, oil and electronics stocks declined.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index slipped 60.49 points, or 0.35 percent, to 17,310.44 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Banks fell as investors readjusted expectations on loan spreads after the Bank of Japan kept rates steady overnight.

Sentiment was weighed down by weakness on Wall Street overnight and an unimpressive forecast from Apple Inc. that muted investors' enthusiasm for technology stocks.

Now that the central bank's January policy meeting is over, however, expectations are growing that the Nikkei will start adding gains toward the technically important 2006 high of 17,563 points, traders said.

"The market may hit a new high by February before the mood turns cautious before the BOJ's next policy board meeting" from Feb. 20, said Ichiyoshi Investment Management general manager Mitsushige Akino.""

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070119/japan_markets.html?.v=3

Ichiro

01-19-2007, 05:35 PM

20jan-fs-LIQUIDITY AND THE GLOBAL
BULL MARKET OF 2007
by Clif Droke
January 3, 2007

""It may not be apparent yet, but the story of the next six months will be the improvement in monetary liquidity and the subsequent bull market in stocks that accompanies it.

The previous two years were notable for the decline in monetary liquidity as shown in the Federal Reserve money supply statistics. It almost seemed that the Fed wanted to bring the economy to the very brink of recession before priming the credit pump once again at the last possible minute. The Fed very nearly succeeded in bringing about a recession but thankfully this threat has now been averted. Listening to some mainstream economists and financial analysts talk, one gets the impression that the threat of a further economic slowdown is still a very real one. But such is not the case, a point we’ll try to make in this commentary. Indeed, monetary liquidity hasn’t looked this good in years.

Everyone knows that in the real estate business it’s all about “location, location, location.” One of the first lessons a trader or investor must learn is that when it comes to the financial markets, it’s all about “liquidity, liquidity, liquidity.” When liquidity expands it sooner or later translates into rising stock prices and a strong economy; when it contracts it eventually forces stock prices lower and, if the contraction continues long enough, it brings down the economy. The correlation between percentage changes in monetary liquidity and stock prices is so well documented it’s amazing there are even today detractors of this truism.
""
Not only is domestic liquidity on the rise, but global liquidity is still at record levels and looking for somewhere to go. The two most likely candidates (in fact, the only major candidates) for this excess money are the U.S. stock market and the major global equities markets. Both have been obvious beneficiaries of the gradual re-emergence of the stock investor and both should continue to experience its positive effects further into 2007.

The increase in the M2 and MZM money supply measures continues to be the big story that hardly anyone is talking about entering 2007. It’s one reason why growth stocks should make a comeback this year and why already growth stock mutual funds and ETFs have made quite a turnaround in the past few months. Speaking of growth stocks, the Russell 1000 Growth Index (RLG) closed Friday at a 5-year high of 568.25 and is picking up some upside momentum which is favorable for the interim outlook (see chart below).

Not only is money supply increasing but so is credit. An article in a recent edition of the Financial Times made mention of the surge in collateralized debt that is expected to prolong the “easy credit” boom. According to FT, the issuance of securities linked to debt portfolio debt “swelled dramatically” in 2006 and according to credit analysts is a trend that is expected to continue in 2007. FT noted that estimates of activity in this sector suggest that more than $2,500 billion of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) were issued last year, more than six times higher than in 2004. FT noted that “The explosion of CDO issuance is fuelling demand for debt products, helping keep the cost of borrowing in markets relatively low.”

This low cost of borrowing and surge in credit will serve to extend the bull market in stocks in 2007. We’re already seeing an early taste of a more generous securities lending stance on the part of the Federal Reserve as recent securities lending actions have shown. There was a very substantial increase in securities lending between Dec. 28 and Jan. 3 that paved the way for the recent rally in the NASDAQ, the financial, the healthcare, and growth stock sectors we’ve seen thus far in early 2007.""

for info:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0116.html

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:47 AM

2feb-FOREX-Dollar holds ground ahead of payrolls data, G7 eyed

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - ""The dollar steadied against major currencies on Friday, with investors reticent to take positions ahead of key U.S. data, while markets were alert for commentary on yen weakness ahead of next week's Group of Seven meeting.

January's U.S. non-farm payrolls report, due at 1330 GMT, will be scanned by investors for evidence to reinforce a solid growth outlook and the Federal Reserve's steady stance on interest rates.

Economists expect the data to show 149,000 jobs added in January after a rise of 167,000 the previous month.

But analysts will also look closely at University of Michigan sentiment data, following Thursday figures showing an unexpected slide in U.S. manufacturing activity last month.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index hit its lowest level since April 2003. The non-manufacturing ISM is due on Monday.""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070202:MTFH75947_2007-02-02_09-08-10_L02841211&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:49 AM

2-feb-FTSE up in global rally, bid talk lifts Sainsbury
Fri Feb 2, 2007 3:55am ET140

By Rebekah Curtis

LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - ""Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE index pushed higher on Friday, with Sainsbury (SBRY.L: Quote, Profile , Research) soaring on bid talk and the market as a whole gaining after global stocks took heart from strong company results and optimism over the U.S. interest rate outlook.

Shares in Sainsbury leapt as much as 7 percent and hit a seven-year high as traders cited media reports of private equity interest in the UK supermarket.

Private equity firm CVC has recently been working on plans to take Britain's third-largest grocer private, The Times newspaper reported on Friday. Tracking Sainsbury's lead, Morrison (MRW.L: Quote, Profile , Research) added 2.4 percent.

By 0845 GMT the FTSE 100 was 12.2 points or 0.2 percent higher at 6,294.4, having ended up 1.3 percent in the previous session, with none of the index's stocks closing in negative territory.""

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070202:MTFH75671_2007-02-02_08-55-47_L02836808&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:50 AM

2 feb- AP
Japanese Stocks Climb; Dollar Up vs. Yen
Friday February 2, 2:08 am ET
Japanese Stocks Climb on Optimism About U.S. Growth; Dollar Higher Against Yen

TOKYO (AP) -- Japanese stocks ended higher Friday on optimism about U.S. growth. The dollar rose against the yen.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index climbed 27.61 points, or 0.16 percent, to wrap up the week at 17,547.11 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei gave up some of the morning gains in the afternoon due to profit taking.

The broader Topix index, which includes all shares on the exchange's first section, was up 3.82 points, or 0.22 percent, at 1742.40.

Japanese stocks are getting a lift from surging shares on Wall Street, where the market rose for a third-straight session overnight. On Thursday, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.78 percent to its highest close since April 7, 2006.

Renewed confidence that the U.S. economy remains solid and that inflation is in check bolstered optimism among investors in Japan, which relies on healthy U.S. growth to fuel the country's export-driven economy.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070202/japan_markets.html?.v=2

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:53 AM

2feb-Asian Stocks Rise to Nine-Month High on U.S. Spending, Earnings

By Chen Shiyin

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks advanced to the highest in nine months as U.S. consumer spending climbed. Sony Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. led gains by exporters.

``The U.S. economy is like Rasputin; you can try to poison him, stab him, and still he lives,'' said Elan Cohen, a Singapore-based fund manager with JPMorgan Private Bank, which has $350 billion in assets. ``The strength of the U.S. consumer is really driving the economy and that's spurring growth in the rest of the world.''

Lenovo Group Ltd. and Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. rose after reporting an increase in profits. China's stocks had their worst weekly plunge in five years on concern new offerings will divert funds from existing shares. China Vanke Co. declined.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added 0.4 percent to 142.84 at 6:30 p.m. in Tokyo, the highest since May 9. For the week, the regional gauge added 1.5 percent, its third consecutive advance.

South Korea's Kospi index jumped 2.2 percent. Kookmin Bank, the nation's largest lender, led gains after Korea Exchange Bank said it will pay its first dividend in 10 years.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.2 percent to 17,547.11. Indexes advanced elsewhere in the region, with those in Australia, India and Singapore climbing to all-time highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to its fifth record this year after the Commerce Department said U.S. consumer spending gained 0.7 percent in December, the most in five months. Personal spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The U.S. is Asia's biggest export market.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aNvkty8sRAYQ&refer=asia

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:54 AM

2feb-China's Stocks Fall, Capping Biggest Weekly Drop in Five Years

By Zhang Shidong

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks fell, rounding off the Shanghai Composite Index's biggest weekly drop in five years.

Lawmaker Cheng Siwei and Haitong Securities Co., China's fourth largest brokerage by assets, in the last two days said the market is overvalued, and share sales by companies including Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. and Industrial Bank Co. are fanning concern that investor demand will dry up. China Vanke Co. and China Minsheng Banking Corp. led the decline.

``Share sales are making investors even more jittery, adding to fears that the market is too high,'' said Zhang Shuntai, who oversees the equivalent of $127 million at Zhonghai Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``Undoubtedly, a correction is now in full swing.''

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks yuan- denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, dropped 97.17, or 4.1 percent, to close at 2298.00. The measure plunged 8.6 percent this week, the biggest slide since it was introduced in April 2005. The Shanghai Composite's 7.3 percent weekly drop was the largest since January 2002.

China Vanke, the nation's biggest property developer, fell 1.23 yuan, or 7.9 percent, to 14.42 today. China Minsheng, the first privately controlled bank, dropped 0.78 yuan, or 6.4 percent, to 11.51.

Citic Securities Co., the biggest publicly traded brokerage, lost 2.61 yuan, or 7.3 percent, to 33.16. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's No. 1 steelmaker, declined 0.61 yuan, or 6.5 percent, to 8.81.

fro info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aeC6zLI5lsd0&refer=asia

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:56 AM

2feb-Why Abe Won't Be Japan's Answer to Ronald Reagan: William Pesek

By William Pesek

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Shinzo Abe seems to be channeling the spirit of Ronald Reagan. Japan's prime minister is championing Reagan-like policies such as restoring national pride and deregulating a rigid economy.

Given Abe's focus in his first four months, it's not surprising that pundits are buzzing about ``Morning in Japan.'' It's a not-so-subtle reference to the U.S. president's 1984 re- election campaign. Reagan ran on a platform of the U.S. being ``prouder, stronger, better'' after his first four years.

Many credit Reagan, who died in 2004, with restoring U.S. power and prosperity after a period of economic hardship and national soul-searching. It's not unlike what many of Japan's 127 million people have entrusted Abe to do.

They are likely to be disappointed.

Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, unleashed a bit of Reaganomics on Asia's biggest economy in his five years in power. He worked to push through spending cuts, tax reductions for the wealthy, privatization and deregulation. Koizumi had to move gingerly, given Japan's preference for consensus over conflict. Yet his direction was clear enough.

The idea always was for Koizumi's successor to build on his achievements, no matter how incomplete. Abe's charge was to bring Japan's recovery to the next level, encouraging companies and households to spend more and making an over-regulated economy more efficient.

Abe is also focused on ``building a beautiful country,'' something that seems quite Reaganesque. It's not about planting trees or cleaning up the streets -- it's about boosting national pride, instilling patriotism in youngsters and, ultimately, creating a bigger global role for the nation.

for info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aDaC_FYt6HGM&refer=columnist_pesek

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 12:42 PM

2feb-anuary U.S. Payrolls Rise 111,000; Jobless Rate Rises to 4.6%

By Joe Richter

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. added a smaller- than-forecast 111,000 workers to payrolls in January and the unemployment rate rose, evidence of an economy growing at the moderate pace predicted by the Federal Reserve.

The gain in employment followed a 206,000 rise in December that was larger than previously estimated, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 4.6 percent, the first increase in three months.

Modest job gains suggest wage gains won't accelerate, lessening the risk that inflation will flare. The Fed this week kept interest rates unchanged and said that, while inflation was ``likely to moderate,'' risks remained. The report may soothe some central bankers who had voiced concern a too-tight labor market had the potential to boost wages and prices.

``Businesses aren't in a bunker mentality, but there appears to be some tempering of expectation on growth,'' Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, said before the report. ``The Fed is on track to get the kind of moderation in the labor market that's necessary to prevent inflation pressures from intensifying.''

Economists projected payrolls would rise by 150,000 following a previously reported 167,000 December increase, according to the median estimate of 82 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from increases of 20,000 to 225,000. November and December payrolls were revised up by a combined 81,000.

Economists also projected a 4.5 percent unemployment rate.

Wage Gains Moderate

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayK3KowLVux8&refer=home

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 12:44 PM

2feb-U.S. Treasuries Rise as Economy Adds Fewer Jobs Than Forecast

By Daniel Kruger

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries rose after a government report showed the economy created fewer jobs last month than economists forecast.

U.S. employers added 111,000 workers in January, after a revised 206,000 increase in December, the Labor Department said. The median forecast of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an increase of 150,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent.

``The market's going to rally,'' said Kris Kowal, who helps manage $5.6 billion in fixed-income assets at DuPont Capital Management Corp. in Wilmington, Delaware, before the report. ``Maybe the economy's not that strong.''

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 2 basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 4.82 percent at 8:31 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 5/8 percent security due November 2016 rose 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 1/2.

The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in a year last quarter as declining energy costs helped power consumer spending and contain inflation. Gross domestic product increased at an annual pace of 3.5 percent, the Commerce Department said in Washington on Jan. 31.

A lower-than-expected payrolls number ``would definitely be bullish,'' said Jason Stipanov, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Morgan Stanley, before the report. Yet it may take two or three more months of slowing job growth ``before eases are a reasonable possibility,'' he said, referring to the likelihood the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs this year.

A private labor survey released Jan. 31 showed companies in the U.S. added 152,000 jobs in January, after a drop of 40,000 in December, the first decline since April 2003, according to an ADP Employer Services report that was based on data from 307,000 businesses.

Traders and investors had expected U.S. employers added 182,800 nonfarm workers in January, according to an auction of economic derivatives by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange tied to U.S. nonfarm payrolls. The CME released the auction figures on its Web site.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJRZqOWZz3qI&refer=home

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 12:47 PM

2feb-Bond Market Rediscovers Reasons to Be Concerned: Mark Gilbert

By Mark Gilbert

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- After rising in tandem for much of 2006, bonds and equities are starting to diverge, to the detriment of some sections of the fixed-income markets in the first month of the year. It might not last.

In January, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of U.S. stocks eked out a 1.4 percent gain, while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index climbed 2 percent. Fixed-income returns, meantime, are a sea of red, with U.K. bonds maturing in more than a year losing 1.5 percent. Euro-area debt has fallen 0.4 percent and the U.S. futures contract on long-dated bonds more than a point.

The bond market is rediscovering reasons to be concerned. U.S. consumers haven't taken fright at the parlous state of the housing market and fled screaming from the shopping malls. The Federal Reserve isn't about to start cutting interest rates. So far, the inverted yield curve, with two-year note yields higher than 10-year levels, doesn't seem to be a harbinger of recession.

The U.S. economy grew at a not-so-shabby annual pace of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, according to figures this week, faster than the 3 percent anticipated by economists and up from the third quarter's 2 percent pace.

``The battle between bonds and equities to decide which asset class better reflects the U.S. growth outlook appears to be swinging decisively toward equities,'' Tim Drayson, an economist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London, said in a note this week.

The Fed sweetened its assessment of the economy at this week's policy meeting, describing ``somewhat firmer economic growth.'' That was a change from ``economic growth has slowed over the course of the year'' outlined in December. It certainly doesn't sound like a central bank about to ratify economists' expectations for a bond-bolstering rate cut.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=aMyiYHGEvrFA

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:41 PM

3feb- AP
Dollar Rises Against Major Currencies
Friday February 2, 4:15 pm ET
Dollar Rises Against Major Currencies Following U.S. Employment Report

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar rose against other major currencies Friday as the markets focused on upward revisions to past jobs gains in a mostly disappointing employment report.

The euro bought $1.2967 in afternoon New York trading, down from $1.3021 in New York late Thursday. The British pound also slipped to $1.9673 from $1.9677.

AThe dollar strengthened against the Japanese currency, rising to 121.07 Japanese yen from 120.66 yen late Thursday.

The Labor Department reported Friday that unemployment in January rose to 4.6 percent and job growth was unexpectedly subdued -- fitting with expectations that growth in the economy will moderate this year.

The tally of new jobs added last month, 111,000, fell short of economists' expectations for a gain of around 150,000 positions. They also had forecast that the jobless rate would hold steady at its December level of 4.5 percent.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070202/dollar.html?.v=2

Ichiro

02-02-2007, 08:43 PM

3feb-Dow retreats from record-Tech stocks gain but blue chips struggle; oil, earnings and employment report also factor.

By Jessica Dickler and Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com staff writers
February 2 2007: 4:10 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were mixed Friday, as the Dow Jones Industrial average struggled a day after ending at an all-time high and the Nasdaq composite edged higher.

The Dow (down 21.55 to 12,652.13, Charts) lost 0.2 percent, one day after closing at a record high. The broader S&P 500 (up 2.65 to 1,448.59, Charts) index added nearly 0.2 percent after ending the previous session at the highest point since September 2000.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite (up 6.96 to 2,475.34, Charts) gained 0.3 percent.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ended higher for the week.
Jobs gain misses target, but ...

Stocks rallied Thursday on a mix of lower oil prices and some relief about the economic outlook.

The sense of relief was mostly reinforced by Friday's economic news, including a stronger-than-forecast reading on December factory orders and by the January jobs report.

But fluctuating energy prices and a selloff in commodity stocks such as silver and gold kept stocks in mixed territory. Additionally, investors showed a little caution after lifting the Dow to a record the day before.

for info:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/02/markets/markets_0405/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

Ichiro

02-03-2007, 09:31 PM

4feb-Yen Gains Versus Dollar; Japan's Currency Called Undervalued

By Bo Nielsen and Ye Xie

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rebounded from a four-year low versus the dollar this week as European officials said Japan's currency is undervalued.

The currency had its first weekly gain versus the dollar in about a month as U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he was watching the yen ``very carefully.'' Investors bought yen before next week's Group of Seven meeting on speculation members would discuss the currency's recent decline. The Japanese currency has weakened 1.7 percent against the dollar this year.

``Investors pared back their extreme short yen positions ahead of the G-7 meeting,'' said Brian Garvey, senior currency strategist with State Street Global Markets in Boston, one of the world's largest custodians of investor assets with $10.7 trillion. The yen also ``gained partly because foreign investors started buying Japanese equities fairly aggressively.''

The yen strengthened to 121.13 per dollar yesterday from 121.54 on Jan. 26, and 157.01 per euro from 156.99. The dollar traded at $1.2961 per euro from $1.2916. The Japanese currency gained 0.3 percent this week against the dollar.

The Brazilian real this week was the best performing major currency tracked by Bloomberg, gaining 1.6 percent versus the U.S. dollar. New Zealand's dollar was the worst performer, declining 2.2 percent.

The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.7 percent this week to 17,547.11.

Officials from France and Germany this week said the yen's value doesn't reflect economic fundamentals, suggesting they'll seek a stronger currency at the Feb. 9-10 meeting of the G-7.

European Central Bank board member Christian Noyer said the yen's value doesn't reflect the strength of the Japanese economy, the Nikkei newspaper reported.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awCjnCxQbRms&refer=home

Ichiro

02-03-2007, 09:32 PM

5feb-U.S. Stocks Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since August; Boeing Rises

By Michael Patterson

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks posted their biggest weekly advance since August, as optimism that consumer spending will drive economic and profit growth without fueling inflation sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a six-year high.

Earnings from Boeing Co. that exceeded analysts' estimates helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average cap its longest monthly winning streak since 1995 and post its fifth record of 2007. Energy shares led the S&P 500's rally as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Valero Energy Corp.'s profit topped expectations and oil prices climbed to the highest this year.

The Federal Reserve on Jan. 31 left interest rates unchanged and said the economy is picking up while the pace of price increases has slowed. Government reports that showed consumer spending propelled economic growth last quarter while inflation gauges rose at a slower pace confirmed the predictions of policy makers including Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

``The economy is indeed on a nice expansionary path that's non-inflationary. It's perfect from the Fed's point of view,'' said John Kattar, who helps oversee $1.8 billion as chief investment officer at Eastern Investment Advisors in Boston. ``It's good news for stocks.''

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.8 percent to 1448.39, the highest since September 2000. The rise was the largest since a 2.8 percent climb in the period ended Aug. 18.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8.F0rBgQ7pc&refer=home

Ichiro

02-03-2007, 09:33 PM

5feb-U.S. Brings a WTO Case Against China Over Subsidies (Update3)

By William Roberts and Richard Miller

Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lodged the largest trade complaint against China yet at the World Trade Organization alleging that the Asian nation unfairly subsidizes its steel, wood products, information technology and other industries.

``China uses its basic tax laws and other tools to encourage exports and to discriminate against imports of a variety of American manufactured goods,'' U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab said in describing the complaint today in Washington. China's industrial subsidies are prohibited by its 2001 agreement to join the WTO, she said.

Today's action is the first step in what may be a lengthy process to determine whether China's subsidies violate WTO rules. First, the two countries must try to negotiate a solution. If those talks fail, the U.S. may ask the Geneva-based WTO to arbitrate. If the WTO ruled for the U.S., China would have to remove the subsidies or face U.S. penalties on its exports. If China wins, it could keep the subsidies.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=absj27NreMEA&refer=china

Ichiro

02-03-2007, 09:35 PM

5feb-Tata, Buying Corus, Will Prove Detractors Wrong: Andy Mukherjee

By Andy Mukherjee

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The most dramatic change in Indian business in the past decade has been the surge in ambition.

Take Ratan Tata, the Mumbai-based tycoon who this week won the race to buy Britain's Corus Group Plc, beating his Brazilian rival Benjamin Steinbruch in a closely contested auction.

At 6.2 billion pounds ($12 billion), Tata Steel Ltd.'s offer may be a pygmy by U.S. standards of deal-making.

It is, however, the largest ever attempted by an Indian company and, when completed, may just make the league table of Top 30 all-cash transactions globally.

Ratan Tata calls it ``a moment of great fulfillment.'' Shareholders in his company don't quite see it that way.

Several analysts are suggesting that Tata has gone overboard in trying to best Steinbruch's Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, or CSN. Tata Steel raised its offer to 608 pence a share, from 455 pence initially. CSN bid 603 pence.

The leveraged deal, they say, may have put the 100-year-old Indian company's finances at risk. Tata Steel shares fell almost 11 percent in Mumbai yesterday.

For Ratan Tata, who came to the helm of the salt-to-software conglomerate in 1991, this won't be the first time the markets thought he was being reckless.

In fact, the tolerance level for what investors considered imprudent corporate adventurism used to be much lower.

On Jan. 15, 1998, Tata had unveiled to a crowd in New Delhi the first example of a small car put together by the truck-making division of his group.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aizj91AZyrkI&refer=columnist_mukherjee

Ichiro

02-03-2007, 09:38 PM

4feb-- Daily FX
US Dollar - Non-Farm Payrolls Drives the EUR/USD Back into Its Trading Range
Friday February 2, 4:32 pm ET
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

• US Dollar - Non-Farm Payrolls Drives the EUR/USD Back into Its Trading Range
• Euro Retreats on Speculation that Next ECB Rate Hike Will be Their Last
• British Pound Continues to Rally on Good Data

US Dollar - Over the past year, the US non-farm payrolls report has become incredibly difficult to trade. Large revisions are made frequently which is reducing the accuracy and reliability of each individual report. This is exactly what happened this morning when traders first took the US dollar lower on the disappointing headline release but quickly erased those losses when they saw the massive revisions for the prior months. More specifically even though payrolls increased by only 111k in December compared to the market’s 150k forecast, the number of additional jobs added back to the November and December payrolls totaled 81k, washing out the 39k shortfall. The massive revision was for the year ending in March 2006 where we actually saw payrolls increase by 754k, the largest revision on record. The report was not dollar bearish but at the same time it was not completely dollar bullish. Despite the overall health of the labor market, the increase in the unemployment rate and the tepid 0.2 percent rise in wage growth is another reason why the Federal Reserve has chosen to hold back any interest rate hikes. We need to see at least 2 more months of solid data before the Federal Reserve will actually consider tightening monetary policy. The NFP report has driven the EUR/USD right back into its month long 1.2865 to 1.3065 trading range. In the week ahead, the economic calendar is very light which could keep the currency pair range bound. The only notable release is service sector ISM on Monday. Traders should keep an eye on oil prices which have risen back to $59 a barrel. With little data on tap, the impact of higher oil prices could become a major talking point in the markets once again. The G7 meeting the following weekend will also receive center focus.

Japanese Yen - The price activity of the Japanese Yen continues to be very mixed as the market speculates on the potential outcome of next weekend’s G7 meeting. After US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s comments yesterday, the US appeared unconcerned about the recent weakness in the Japanese Yen. However today they officially filed an unfair trade case against Beijing to the World Trade Organization. The US is claiming that China’s subsidies are illegal and they have put a big dent into the sale of US products in China. This is a big step away from the buddy versus bully approach that Paulson had advocated and signals that the US remains a protectionist. It will be interesting to see if there are any retaliatory measures by China before the G7. If there is, the US may be tempted to back the Eurozone in calling for more normalization in the currency policies in the entire region. There is little data on the Japanese economic calendar next week which will keep the G7 meeting the center focus.

for inof:http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070202/1170455533990.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-03-2007, 09:40 PM

4feb- Daily FX
FX Correlations (January): How Do Currencies Move In Relation To Each Other?
Thursday February 1, 2:17 pm ET
By John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com

In order to be an effective trader, it is important to understand how different currency pairs move in relation to each other. There are a few reasons why this is significant, but most importantly, it allows traders to understand their exposure. That is, having a portfolio that consists of the EURUSD and USDCHF is different than having a portfolio comprised of EURUSD and AUDUSD. As indicated in the tables below, over the past month, the EURUSD has had a strong negative correlation (-0.88) with the USDCHF and a relatively strong positive correlation with AUDUSD (+0.75). Therefore having a long EURUSD and long USDCHF exposure would generally lead to negated or nearly zero profit or loss because when the EURUSD rallies, USDCHF will sell off the majority of the time. Of course, these two currencies may have different pip values and the correlation is not perfect, so the P/L may not be exactly zero. On the other hand, holding long EURUSD and long AUDUSD exposures would be similar to nearly doubling up in one of the pairs since the correlation is so strong. Furthermore, we can tell from our tables that correlations shift with time. For example, the EURUSD has held a modest negative correlation to the USDJPY (-0.62) over the past year. However, for the past month alone, the relationship almost completely dissolves (-0.04). Shifts such as these can be partially explained by changes in the severity of monetary policy or changes in unique domestic conditions. Overall, having this knowledge will allow traders to effectively diversify and manage their portfolios.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070201/1170361104638.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-05-2007, 12:44 PM

5feb-London explosion keeps pressure on European shares

By Ana Nicolaci da Costa

LONDON, Feb 5 (Reuters) - European shares extended losses on Monday after a letter bomb explosion in London hurt a market which had already come off last week's six-month highs in early trade as the earnings flood narrowed to a trickle.

The pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> neared intra-day lows after police said a letter bomb exploded at a London office, hurting one employee.

By 1130 GMT, the index was 0.1 percent lower at 1,536.1 points after falling to near an intra-day low of 1,534.35 after reports of the explosion.

Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE lost 13 points on the explosion news but regained some ground to trade 4.4 points or 0.1 percent lower at 6,306.5. Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> was down 0.2 percent while France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> was steady on the day.

Stocks came under pressure in early trade but had steadied before the explosion as talks of takeover bids and strong euro zone manufacturing data underpinned sentiment.

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070205:MTFH33213_2007-02-05_12-19-05_L05558151&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-05-2007, 07:29 PM

6feb-U.S. Economy: Expansion in Service Industries Accelerates

By Courtney Schlisserman

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Growth at U.S. service industries accelerated more than forecast last month, the latest sign the American economy is rebounding from last year's slowdown.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which includes construction companies, financial services firms and retailers, rose to 59.0, the highest since May, from 56.7 in December. Service industries make up almost 90 percent of gross domestic product.

The figures suggest consumers are still adding to growth after more than offseting a slump in factories and housing at the end of 2006. Inventories dwindled along with costs such as energy and transportation, the ISM survey showed.

``The report highlights the dichotomy we've been seeing for quite a while, where the industrial sector continues to go through a correction while the rest of the economy, excluding housing, is doing okay,'' said Haseeb Ahmed, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``We don't need to worry about the spillover from housing and manufacturing.''

In Europe, growth in service industries also picked up. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's services index climbed to 57.9 in January, from 57.2 in December. A reading above 50 in both surveys indicates expansion.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aT7WR9.p9TxE&refer=economy

Ichiro

02-05-2007, 07:32 PM

6feb-Cheap Hires Are Only Half Battle at Accenture: Andy Mukherjee

By Andy Mukherjee

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Accenture Ltd. is going Indian.

The Hamilton, Bermuda-based consulting firm last week said it would supplement the 27,000 workers it already has in India by hiring an additional 8,000 people there by Aug. 31.

India will soon be Accenture's biggest employee base worldwide, overtaking the U.S.

The motivation behind the move is quite plain to see.

Even after several years of 15 percent pay increases, an experienced software developer in Bangalore costs about $13,000 a year, compared with $78,000 in Atlanta, according to the PayScale.com Web site.

The economics is compelling, and not just for Accenture.

International Business Machines Corp. has announced plans to triple Indian investments to $6 billion by 2009.

Hiring people cheaply is going to be only half the battle.

India's homegrown software-services companies, which have benefited the most from arbitraging on the wage differential, won't give in to their deeper-pocketed rivals, such as Accenture and IBM, without a fight.

Indian companies have a pricing constraint because they don't have the consulting expertise of big-bulge firms. Nevertheless, they have controls that allow for a very profitable use of their human resources.

What makes Indian software-services companies a hit with shareholders is that they are run with efficiency.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_mukherjee&sid=aHYrtAkYtx6c

Ichiro

02-05-2007, 07:34 PM

6feb-Yen Gains Most in a Month Versus Euro Before the G-7 Meeting

By Bo Nielsen and Ye Xie

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The yen gained versus the dollar and increased the most against the euro in a month on speculation European policy makers will say Japan's currency is too weak.

The yen climbed against the 16 most-active currencies after officials in Europe said the Group of Seven nations would debate the issue this week. Japan's Vice Finance Minister Hideto Fujii, the ministry's top bureaucrat, said the G-7 will discuss currency markets as usual. Futures trading data released on Feb. 2 showed investors held record bets the Japanese currency would fall.

``The yen has momentum coming into the G-7 meeting after all the talk about it being undervalued,'' said Mike Moran, senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. ``Looking at the net shorts, you've got to wonder how long this can remain without some kind of a correction.''

The Japanese currency gained to 120.29 against the dollar at 1:28 p.m. in New York, from 121.13 on Feb. 2. The yen rose to 155.54 per euro, from 157.01. Against the euro, the U.S. currency traded at $1.2929, from $1.2961.

The yen increased 0.9 percent versus the European currency, the biggest gain since a 1 percent increase on Jan. 5. The Japanese currency gained to as much as 155.48 versus the euro, the highest since 155.09 on Jan. 15. The euro touched an all-time high versus the yen of 158.62 on Jan. 24.

One-Week Volatility

Volatility on one-week yen options traded as high as 8.925 percent before retreating to 8.5 percent, the highest in more than a week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Data released Feb. 2 by the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed traders on Jan. 30 had a record 173,005 positions that profit from a weaker yen.

foro info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a_MakChxcHQI&refer=currency

Ichiro

02-06-2007, 10:49 AM

6Feb- LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The Morgan Stanley index of world stock markets <.MSCIWD> hit a record of 376.05 points on Tuesday, as European shares advanced to new six-year highs after strong gains in Asia.

The index has gained around 2.2 percent so far this year after a 19-percent increase in 2006.

for ifno:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070206:MTFH61329_2007-02-06_11-39-22_L06782866&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-06-2007, 10:50 AM

6feb- AP
Most Asian Markets Rise
Tuesday February 6, 6:11 am ET
Most Asian Markets Rise As Hong Kong and Tokyo Gain; Chinese Shares Rebound

HONG KONG (AP) -- Most Asian markets rose Tuesday, as shares in Japan and Hong Kong gained and as Chinese stocks rebounded from a five-day losing streak.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index climbed 62.06 points, or 0.36 percent, to close at 17,406.86 points. Investors bought up shares of autos and tech companies after the index lost 1.15 percent Monday.

Investment trusts bought up high dividend-paying power companies like Tokyo Electric Power Co., which surged 4.9 percent to 4,470 yen (US$37.03) and Kansai Electric Power Co., up 7.5 percent to 3,850 yen (US$31.89).

Toyota Motor Corp. shares gained 1.8 percent to 7,960 yen (US$65.94) ahead of its earnings report for the October-December quarter. After the market closed Tuesday Toyota said its quarterly net profit rose 7.3 percent on strong sales in North American and Europe.

In Hong Kong, shares rose as the Shanghai stock market rebounded from five straight days of losses, easing worries about a contagion effect from an equity slump in the mainland.

The blue chip Hang Seng Index jumped 199.58 points, or 1 percent, to 20,655.20.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070206/asian_markets.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-06-2007, 07:57 PM

7feb- AP-Dow, Nasdaq Up in Late Afternoon Trading
Tuesday February 6, 3:39 pm ET

By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Dow, Nasdaq Advance in Late Afternoon Trading As Investors Remain Wary About Technology Stocks

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street traded sideways Thursday as investors were unfazed by speeches from central bankers, yet remained wary about technology stocks after a profit warning from chip maker National Semiconductor Corp.

Major indexes edged higher after extending Monday's losses throughout most of the session. Investors have been reluctant to buy into the market without some kind of catalyst that might indicate where the economy or corporate earnings are heading.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech did not address interest rates, which central bankers left unchanged last week. With his speech out of the way, and corporate earnings season winding down, investors were still seeking a direction for the market.

That could come after the closing bell when networker Cisco Systems Inc., considered a bellwether for technology stocks, report quarterly earnings. Technology stocks stumbled through most of the day after National Semi warned sales will fall steeper than expected.

"I get the sense investors are waiting to see what the market is going to do next, and aren't entirely convinced that a slight pullback is going to manifest itself," said Mike Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. "There really wasn't any expectation that something would come from Bernanke. But the fact its over leaves investors looking around for what's next."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070206/wall_street.html?.v=35

Ichiro

02-07-2007, 09:41 AM

7feb-European shares lifted by Peugeot, Billiton
Wed Feb 7, 2007 4:42am ET145

By Ulf Laessing

FRANKFURT, Feb 7 (Reuters) - European shares rose slightly in early trade on Wednesday, extending Tuesday's gains, lifted by French car maker Peugeot (PEUP.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) and mining giant BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile , Research).

Among major movers, PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUP.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) rose 2.8 percent after posting a smaller decline in its 2006 consolidated operating margin than analysts had forecast.

Also on the upside, shares in BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile , Research), the world's biggest miner, rose 4.5 percent after setting an extra $10 billion in share buybacks.

By 0929 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of leading European shares was up 0.1 percent at 1,545.12 after closing 0.3 percent up at 1,543.08 points on Tuesday.

Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE was up 0.3 percent, while France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> was up 0.2 percent and Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> up 0.3 percent.

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070207:MTFH90506_2007-02-07_09-42-12_L07693882&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-07-2007, 09:44 AM

7feb-P
Dollar Rises Against Yen in Asia
Wednesday February 7, 5:05 am ET
Dollar Rises Against Yen in Asia on View G7 Won't Issue Warning Over Weak Yen

TOKYO (AP) -- The dollar rose against the yen in Asia Wednesday on mounting speculation that Group of Seven finance chiefs will not issue a strong warning on the weakness of the yen when they meet later this week.

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The dollar was trading at 120.24 yen at 2:50 p.m. Wednesday, up from 120.08 yen late Tuesday in New York. The euro rose to $1.2986 from $1.2978.

Japan and Asian players bought the dollar in the wake of remarks by U.S. and Japanese currency authorites that the yen will not be a major topic of discussion at the G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Germany on Feb. 9-10, Tokyo traders said.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070207/dollar.html?.v=2

Ichiro

02-07-2007, 09:45 AM

7feb- AP
Chinese Stocks Rise 2.4 Percent
Wednesday February 7, 5:13 am ET
Chinese Stocks Rise on Renewed Buying by Institutional Investors; Yuan Hits Fresh High

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- Chinese stocks rose Wednesday on renewed buying of banks and other index heavyweights by institutional investors. The yuan rose to a new high against the U.S. dollar.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.5 percent to 2,716.18. The gain follows a 2.4 percent surge on Tuesday which snapped a five-day decline. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.9 percent to 666.96.

Selling pressure on securities funds eased after Tuesday's rebound, prompting some funds to hunt bargains and potential profit-makers, analysts said.

For individual companies, investors are watching for 2006 financial results, due by late April, for trading cues, said Zhu Haibin, an analyst at Everbright Securities.

China Petroleum & Chemical, Asia's largest refiner by capacity, advanced 1.9 percent to 8.75 yuan after losing 19 percent over the previous five sessions.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070207/china_markets.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-07-2007, 08:00 PM

8feb- AP
Stocks Narrowly Mixed As Oil Falls
Wednesday February 7, 3:36 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks Narrowly Mixed After Cisco Forecast, Oil Decline

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks turned mixed Wednesday after falling oil prices hurt energy stocks and overshadowed a stronger-than-expected productivity reading. A Federal Reserve official's comments on interest rates also soured the market's early mood.

A robust sales forecast from Cisco Systems Inc. gave a boost to technology stocks, however. The Labor Department's productivity figures were stronger than expected for the fourth quarter, but failed offset concerns about falling oil prices.

"Crude hasn't been able to get above $60 for three days so the energy names are weak," said Neil Massa, equity trader at John Hancock Funds. He suggested some investors are simply taking profits.

In late afternoon trading, the Dow fell 25.16, or 0.20 percent, to 12,641.15. Earlier in the session the Dow moved past 12,700 for the first time, trading as high as 12,700.28. The previous trading record of 12,683.93 was set Friday.

Broader stock indicators were mixed. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.34, or 0.02 percent, to 1,447.66, and the tech-focused Nasdaq composite index, responding to Cisco's news, rose 12.62, or 0.51 percent, to 2,484.11.

Bonds rose following the economic data, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.74 percent from 4.77 percent late Tuesday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

for info:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070207/wall_street.html?.v=40

Ichiro

02-07-2007, 08:02 PM

8feb- Daily FX
Dollar Relegated To Congestion Despite Productivity Boost
Wednesday February 7, 2:28 pm ET
By John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com

Fundamentals hit a modest mid-week peak in the New York session Wednesday; but the combined efforts of policy official’s comments and a jump in worker productivity could not fuel volatility in the underlying greenback.

Despite the lack of action in the dollar, EURUSD managed a 50 point rally to 1.3025 from Asian session lows with the help of German data. The USDCHF was also able to swing 50 points, but the move was trimmed by a range that has formed above 1.2380 support. Arguably the most tangible congestion came on behalf of the British pound which has stalled 20 points below resistance flagged at 1.9750. Finally, the battle between the prominence of the carry and possibility of official intervention has allowed the USDJPY to rebound 85 points from key support around 120.

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While action in the currency market was rather dry, position traders had another volley of data to consider in their dollar valuations. The Labor Department reported productivity among US workers rose 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter, following a revised 0.1 percent contraction. At the same time, the labor cost index slowed from a 3.2 percent pace of expansion to 1.7 percent. Together, these numbers confirms the Fed’s neutrality and suggest wages will be less of a threat to overall inflation that original suspected. However, looking at the data from different angles challenges such a conclusion. A particular look at the wages sub-gauge reports a significant 4.8 percent jump, spurred by a jobless rate near a five-year low and the initial exit of Baby Boomers from the work force. Also, the annual numbers are fully contradicting their quarterly equivalents. Through 2006, productivity slowed from 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent growth, the fourth consecutive deceleration. Conversely, labor costs surged 3.2 percent through the same period, the biggest pick up since 2000. When Alan Greenspan was Chairman of the Fed Reserve, he took the firm stance that inflation would be tamed by a boost in productivity. Without this natural domestication in price growth, the Fed may have to step in should round of quarterly data reveal the persistence in the unwanted conditions.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070207/1170880131032.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-07-2007, 08:04 PM

8feb- Daily FX
Euro Rises as Carry Back in Play
Wednesday February 7, 5:57 am ET
By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

• AUD RBA keeps rates on hold
• GBP IP contracts for 2nd time in 3 months
• EUR German IP sharply lower but prior revised upward
• USD Productivity on docket

With US and Japanese officials downplaying the possibility of any substantive discussion of yen weakness at the upcoming G-7 meeting, traders returned to the carry trade steadily buying EURJPY from the start of the Asia session which in turn drove EURUSD to hit the 1.3000 level in early European trade.

The euro also received a bit of a boost from reports that ECB officials were not happy with the MNI story last week that they will halt rate hikes after a 25bp bump in March. The EZ central bankers want the flexibility to hike further should growth risks move to the upside. Furthermore, as all monetary officials they would like to retain some element of surprise in order to exert power over the markets. The MNI story, if true, would have essentially relegated them to “lame duck” status as it would have taken monetary policy out of the equation for the currency market for the rest of the year. Therefore, tomorrow’s ECB press conference could be particularly interesting as President Trichet may decide to assume ultra hawkish posture in order to reassert authority over the market.

On the economic front, the news was not supportive to either euro or the pound as both German and UK Industrial Production reports missed their mark. In UK IP recorded a reading of -0.1% vs. 0.2% expected with large declines in oil and gas production and a 3.7% drop in quarrying and mining. The news could negatively impact Q4 UK GDP, however with oil 18% higher since the time of the IP report, the numbers next month could well bounce back. The currency market shrugged off the data, with the pound recovering all of its post release losses by the New York open.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070207/1170849476133.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-09-2007, 01:52 AM

9feb-GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks dip, currencies unmoved after BOE, ECB
Thu Feb 8, 2007 8:13am ET18
Company Market News

(Updates after BOE, ECB decisions, adds U.S. outlook)

By Lincoln Feast

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Equities and emerging market assets dipped from near record highs on Thursday but risk appetite remained buoyant after euro zone and British central banks held interest rates steady.

U.S. stock futures were pointing to a flat to weaker start on Wall Street, while base metals were weak as institutional investors reduced their holdings.

The euro and sterling were little moved after both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept benchmark borrowing rates unchanged at 3.50 percent and 5.25 percent, respectively.

The yen fell ahead of the G7 meeting which starts on Friday in Essen, Germany, on doubts that finance chiefs will present a united front on the weakness of the Japanese currency, hovering near what the Bank of Japan says are two-decade lows.

The weak yen and low borrowing costs in Japan have been used to finance investments across financial markets and some investors have expressed fears of a sudden unwinding of that so-called carry trade.

foro info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070208:MTFH29829_2007-02-08_13-13-14_L08294394&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-09-2007, 06:58 AM

9feb- AP
Machinery Orders Boost Japanese Stocks
Thursday February 8, 10:13 pm ET
Japanese Stocks Edged Higher Friday Morning on an Upbeat Forecast for Machinery Orders

TOKYO (AP) -- Japanese stocks edged higher Friday morning on an upbeat forecast for machinery orders that offset worse-than-expected data for December. The dollar was higher against the yen.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 106.10 points, or 0.61 percent, to 17,398.58 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by the end of morning session Friday. The index inched up 0.16 point -- a negligible percentage change -- to finish Thursday at 17,292.48.

Japanese core machinery orders fell 0.7 percent in December from the previous month, the government said Friday -- worse than the 0.2 percent drop economists had forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

However, the October-December figure showed a solid rise on-quarter of 2 percent, and the government forecast 2.2 percent growth over the January-March period, cheering market sentiment.

Financial and commodity issues led the gains in early Tokyo trade. Traders also bought shipping issues after they'd fallen the day before.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070208/japan_markets.html?.v=7

Ichiro

02-09-2007, 06:59 AM

9feb- Reuters-Euro climbs as markets price in ECB March rate hike
Thursday February 8, 4:38 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro advanced against most currencies on Thursday after investors interpreted remarks from the head of the European Central Bank as signaling a rise in benchmark interest rates in March.

But the dollar did strengthen against the yen ahead of a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven wealthiest nations, after earlier speculation that the yen's weakness might be a focus of the meeting had fueled a mild rally in the Japanese currency.

The focus of the day's trading was the euro after the ECB left rates unchanged at 3.5 percent as expected, but ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet repeated the phrase "strong vigilance" to describe how the bank will monitor euro zone inflation.

"Strong vigilance remains of the essence so as to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize," ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told a news conference.

The ECB has used the word "vigilance" in its statements every month before the six rate increases delivered since December 2005. Asked if the markets should understand the phrase to mean a rate rise in March, Trichet said: "It speaks for itself."

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070208/markets_forex.html?.v=2

Ichiro

02-09-2007, 07:01 AM

9feeb- AP-G-7 Finance Ministers to Meet in Germany
Thursday February 8, 2:16 pm ET
By Matt Moore, AP Business Writer
G-7 Finance Ministers to Focus on Hedge Funds, Currency Issues, Energy, Education at Meeting

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Finance ministers and central bankers from the world's seven richest nations are set to focus on hedge funds, foreign exchange issues, energy and education as they gather this weekend.

While initial talk ahead of the meeting has focused on European concerns that the yen, a driver of economic growth in Asia, has been weakening, a wider examination of foreign exchange rates and their effect on economies will likely result.

"The issue is a central element in G-7 talks," German Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Mirow said this week at a briefing on the two-day summit which starts Friday in the west German city of Essen.

The euro has hit new highs against the Japanese currency, to reach 158 yen. Japan's interest rates are at 0.25 percent, while rates in the euro-zone and Britain have steadily been raised.

The yen's weakness against the euro has caused some concern among EU finance ministers because it makes Japanese goods less expensive than those made by companies in the EU.

Mirow wouldn't confirm if the yen would be the dominant issue of the meeting, saying all currencies remained an issue and that "the yen is also an important currency, among others."

Japan's Vice Finance Minister Hideto Fujii said Thursday that he expected the finance and central banks chiefs from the Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States to discuss overall macroeconomic, financial, monetary and currency conditions, but not to zero in on the yen.

info:http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070208/germany_g_7.html?.v=3

Ichiro

02-09-2007, 05:59 PM

10feb- AP-Stocks Fall in Early Afternoon Trading-Friday February 9, 1:37 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Dow, Nasdaq Slide in Early Afternoon Trading As Investors Absorb Spike in Oil Prices

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street extended its decline Thursday as investors glumly absorbed a spike in oil prices and comments from two Federal Reserve officials that unexpected economic growth could prompt an interest rate hike.

Stocks had spent most of the session in positive territory after Thursday's pullback made for fertile ground for bargain hunters. The markets also were boosted by analyst upgrades of the automobile sector, which sent Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. higher.

However, investors began to sell after St. Louis Fed President William Poole and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher both warned rates will go higher if inflation doesn't ebb. Wall Street has been looking for any clues about how central bankers are viewing the economy, and which way it might lead on interest rates this year.

Investors also digested a handful of e-rnings reports and watched the movements of crude oil, which crossed $60 per barrel for the first time since early January. Crude prices flirted with that psychological barrier for three straight days this week only to retreat.

"The market has been trading without a lot of economic information to this point but generally oil prices are providing somewhat of a headwind," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist with the investment strategies group at Bank of America.

In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 18.19, or 0.14 percent, at 12,619.44 after also pulling back on Thursday amid concerns about the housing market.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070209/wall_street.html?.v=37

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 09:47 AM

10-feb- AP-G-7 Meeting Focusing on Currency, Energy
Saturday February 10, 4:16 am ET
By Matt Moore, AP Business Writer
G-7 Communique to Say Euro Zone Contributing More to Global Growth; Talks With China Begin

ESSEN, Germany (AP) -- The finance ministers and central bankers of the world's seven wealthiest countries met with their counterparts from the world's fastest growing economies on Saturday as clues about the group's planned communique became more apparent.

French Finance Minister Thierry Breton said late Friday that the G-7 communique would likely feature a paragraph on foreign exchange issues, but would not single out one currency.

Breton said the G-7 would acknowledge the bigger role that the 13-country euro zone has played in driving world growth.

"We will all say that the euro zone contributes more to world growth than previously," Breton said, adding that the outlook for the global economy was positive.

Euro Group President Jean-Claude Juncker echoed those remarks on Saturday, telling reporters the euro-zone economy has been growing at a robust pace.

The prime minister of Luxembourg, Juncker leads the informal group of finance ministers from the 13 countries that share the euro.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070210/germany_g_7.html?.v=3

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 09:50 AM

10feb-Essen G7 communique similar to Singapore - source
Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:31am ET26

ESSEN, Germany, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The yen is not set to be cited explicitly in a communique to be issued from a meeting of G7 industrialised nations on Saturday, a G7 source said.

The source, speaking a few hours before the communique was due to be officially released, said the wording that financial markets are waiting for on exchange rates was expected to be similar to that used by the G7 in September in Singapore.

"The wording on exchange rates in the final communique will be similar to that used in Singapore," the G7 source told Reuters.

info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070210:MTFH81794_2007-02-10_10-31-12_L10569968&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 09:53 AM

10feb-WRAPUP 1-IMF and Germany upbeat on world economy in 2007
Fri Feb 9, 2007 6:11pm ET28

ESSEN, Germany, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Germany and the International Monetary Fund sounded an upbeat note on world economic growth on Friday, noting strength in Europe and Asia and a moderate slowing in the United States.

IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato, speaking to Reuters in Brussels, said the world economy was on course to grow by about 5 percent this year against 5.1 percent estimated for 2006.

"This means that the recovery is on track," he said during a pit-stop on his way to a meeting in Essen of the G7 group of rich industrial nations, currently chaired by Germany.

Rato said he expected continued strong growth in Europe and Asia and only a slight slowdown in the world's biggest economy, the United States. Last year the IMF forecast 2007 world growth could slow to 4.9 percent or less.

for info:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070209:MTFH77271_2007-02-09_23-11-00_L09733891&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 09:54 AM

10feb- Reuters-Yen seen dodging G7 rebuke as talks enter last day
Saturday February 10, 3:57 am ET
By Hideyuki Sano

ESSEN, Germany (Reuters) - Japan's Finance Minister Koji Omi said on Saturday a slide in the value of the yen would not be singled out for criticism by the Group of Seven club of wealthy economic powers.

"I don't think the yen will be specifically mentioned in the statement," Omi told reporters as he headed to the opening sessions of the second day of talks among G7 finance ministers in the German industrial city of Essen.

The yen's decline has been in sharp focus in the run-up to the meetings that kicked off on Friday, with euro zone nations particularly worried that their exports will be hit hardest by the currency's fall to record lows versus the euro.

The Japanese currency is a key talking point at the meetings along with hedge fund regulation and expanding the group to include China and other emerging markets.

Omi's comments echoed those of his French counterpart Thierry Breton, who told a news conference late on Friday: "We never name a specific currency. Don't expect a specific paragraph on a specific currency."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has given criticism of the yen short shrift, commenting that Japan's currency traded freely in the financial markets, unlike the Chinese yuan, which he wanted to see rising faster.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070210/g7.html?.v=2

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 09:56 AM

9feb- Daily FX-US Dollar - Hawkish Comments By Poole Keeps Dollar Supported
Friday February 9, 4:23 pm ET
By Richard Lee, Currency Analyst strategist@dailyfx.com

• US Dollar – Hawkish Comments By Poole Keeps Dollar Supported

US Dollar
Today was a perfect day to continue the dollar strength that had been seen over the past couple of sessions. Ahead of the looming G7 meeting this weekend, traders continued to bid the greenback higher against the majors whether on book squaring or profit taking. Sparking momentum in the morning were strongly hawkish comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole. Speaking to the AAIM Management Association today, Fed bank president Poole noted that inflationary pressures were expected to reside below the 2 percent comfort target instituted by the Federal Reserve. However, he quickly added that should pressures rise above and remain uncomfortably high, there would be no question to hiking rates further in curbing inflation that would be “unacceptable”. The words spoke loudly to market traders looking for further reasoning n bidding the dollar higher before the New York close. The comments rang even louder considering the dearth of US economic data that was present on the day and will likely play into Bernanke’s testimony to Congress next week. Incidentally, more Federal Reserve news contributed to market action later in the afternoon as press releases began to mount on the March 30th resignation of Governor Susan Bies. The longest tenured board member on the Federal Reserve, Susan Bies was noted as the central bank’s leading regulatory figure, backing recently hawkish decisions of the Fed. Now, her departure leaves two vacancies on the board and a world of possibilities as the current administration must find replacements in the near term. For hawks, this may deal a blow as she will not be attending the March meeting.

Japanese Yen
Finally the weekend has arrived and it seems that the markets are betting on the likelihood of a pass on any heated mentions of the Japanese yen. After a week long schedule of comments from central bankers and policy makers around the world, it seems that the market remains attentive of the meeting. However, the anxiety that we saw in the beginning of the week seems to have turned into sheer skepticism that any real changes will be enforced by the finance ministers in Essen. Comments by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson voiced today summarized the overall sentiment. Although trading near a trade weighted 20-year low, Paulson stated that “the yen is market determined” and is widely lower on the condition of the teetering economy. Nonetheless, the policy maker is expected to make heavy considerations by European officials this weekend in pressureing Japanese officials to counter the recent yen depreciation.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/070209/1171059853869.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 10:00 AM

10feb-Steinbrueck and Breton Ease Stance on the Yen at G-7 (Update2)

By Simon Kennedy and Mark Deen

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers tempered their criticism of the yen's decline as officials from the Group of Seven met in Essen, Germany.

Germany's Peer Steinbrueck said the weaker yen hasn't hurt European exports and Thierry Breton of France said the Japanese currency wouldn't be cited as a problem when the G-7 ministers and central bankers release a statement after their talks today.

The European ministers had pushed the yen onto the G-7 meeting's agenda, saying its slide to a record low against the euro last month was at odds with the strength of Japan's economy and threatening their exports. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi, by contrast, suggested they weren't concerned.

``It looks like the Europeans saw the writing on the wall and sensed there was no way Paulson was going to attack a free- floating currency,'' said Derek Halpenny, a currency strategist in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

The yen depreciated 5.3 percent against the dollar and 6.9 percent versus the euro in the past six months. It closed at 121.73 per dollar and 158.32 versus the euro in New York yesterday.

Falling Yen

Asked by reporters in Essen whether the falling yen had hampered German exports, Steinbrueck said yesterday: ``No, I don't think so; we had a very, very advantageous trade balance during all the past years,'' adding that that was also the case for other European countries.

Breton said yesterday the ``sensitivity'' of exchange-rate issues means the G-7 won't ``cite on individual currency'' in its statement, which is scheduled for release around 2:30 p.m. in Essen. Earlier today, Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, one of the representatives of the 13-nation euro region, said he is not disappointed about the yen's likely absence from the communique.

Paulson reiterated his lack of concern with the slide in the Japanese currency, noting that its value is being set by markets and is in line with the performance of Japan's economy. ``It trades in a marketplace based on economic fundamentals,'' he said.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGR.NaV0FVUU&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 10:02 AM

10feb-Asian Currencies: Korea's Won Has Second Weekly Gain on Funds

By Yumi Teso and Jake Lee

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won strengthened for a second week on speculation global investors will increase demand for the nation's shares.

The won this week advanced to a one-month high as stock exchange data showed investors based outside of South Korea had a fourth straight week of net equity purchases. That demand helped the benchmark Kospi index yesterday reach the highest since Jan. 3.

``There's still investor favor toward Asia and that includes South Korea, giving the currency a boost,'' said Katie Dean, a senior Asian economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. ``We can see more funds going in and more currency gains.''

The won gained 0.3 percent this week to 934.60 against the dollar, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.

Global investors purchased $186.5 million more shares than they sold this week, according to stock exchange data. The Kospi index added 1 percent this week, a third weekly gain.

Taiwan's dollar had a weekly decline on speculation domestic investors are sending money abroad to receive higher yields.

Taiwan Outflows

Taiwan's benchmark rate at 2.75 percent is the lowest among Asian countries except Japan, and is about half the U.S. Federal Reserve's 5.25 percent. Inflation on the island held below 1 percent for the seventh month in January, boosting speculation the central bank will refrain from rate increases.

``Taiwan's interest rate is low among Asian countries and like other low interest rate countries, Taiwan has also seen money going out for overseas higher-yielding assets, putting downward pressure on the local currency,'' said Hideki Hayashi, a foreign-exchange strategist in Tokyo at Shinko Securities Co. ``The trend is for the Taiwan dollar to weaken.''

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aVGHYyr_gIfA&refer=asia

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 10:04 AM

10feb-Asian Shares Rise to Record This Week as Profits Beat Estimates

By Ian C. Sayson

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed for the fourth week, with a regional benchmark rising to a record, as companies including Toyota Motor Corp. and Esprit Holdings Ltd. reported earnings that beat analysts' estimates.

``Earnings have turned out solid overall and there's still room for further increases for this year,'' said Hideo Arimura, who helps look after $16 billion at Dai-Ichi Kangyo Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

NTT DoCoMo Inc. climbed to its highest since May 2004 after Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. raised its stock rating to ``buy'' from ``neutral,'' citing stable earnings and possible higher dividend payments. PetroChina Co. and BHP Billiton led energy stocks higher after crude-oil prices traded above $60 a barrel for first time in five weeks.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added 0.5 percent this week to a record 143.42, after rising 2.9 percent in the previous three weeks. Indexes of phone and energy stocks had the biggest jumps this week, while a measure of technology stocks was the only group to decline.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.2 percent for the week, snapping three weeks of gains, while the broader Topix Index climbed for the fourth week.

China's Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index posted the region's steepest advance following reports the securities regulator lifted a ban on new fund sales. The Jakarta Composite Index was the biggest decliner due to concern flooding in the nation's capital may fuel inflation and hurt earnings.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=a0_K5jHQU7hk&refer=china

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 10:06 AM

10feb-U.S. Hurts Asia With Addiction to Dollar Status: William Pesek

By William Pesek

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The financial-blog community is abuzz over a recent Financial Times item urging Japan to reduce its vast currency reserves.

The risk that Asian nations might direct central banks to reduce dollar reserves has tantalized markets in recent years. Mass dollar-selling would drive up U.S. interest rates and Asian currencies, testing a global economy riddled with imbalances.

While such questions have hovered over markets for years, the FT editorial on Feb. 7 hit a nerve with investors. The reason: It would indeed make sense for Japan to act now to reduce its foreign-exchange reserves.

In the 15 months through March 2004, Japan spent the equivalent of Indonesia's gross domestic product to keep the yen from rising against the dollar. The effort has much to do with why the Bank of Japan has $875 billion of currency reserves and why the weak yen is unnerving Europeans.

``Those reserves,'' the FT argued, ``are dead money that the BOJ could better employ elsewhere: other central banks, like that of China, would love such an opportunity. But most of all, selling down reserves would demonstrate to the world that Japan's currency interventions work both ways, and that it is interested in the stability of the yen rather than in keeping it permanently undervalued.''

So, is the BOJ about to shock markets? ``Interesting idea,'' Brad Setser, director of research at Roubini Global Economics LLC in New York, wrote in his blog. ``Not going to happen, though.''

Dollars and Oil

One reason is that Japan doesn't want to see the yen strengthen. Japanese companies are turning in record profits, thanks to a soft currency. Another explanation is worth exploring: that the U.S. is addicted to the dollar's reserve- currency status as much as developing economies are on petrodollars.

The reference here is to the so-called paradox of plenty. From Nigeria to Indonesia to the Middle East, history is awash with examples of inhabitants of resource-rich nations not prospering from underground treasures such as oil, gold or diamonds. As politicians and cronies get wealthy, there's often no incentive to create other industries to employ the masses.

One wonders if the dollar's linchpin role in global trade is breeding similar complacency in Washington.

By buying so many U.S. Treasuries, Asian central banks make it possible for the U.S. to finance massive current-account and budget deficits without devaluing the dollar and raising interest rates. That, in turn, allows the Bush administration to maintain its tax cuts even as it finances wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and who knows where after that. Iran? North Korea?

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aYZHFIjhF5uw

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 10:09 AM

10feb-Paulson Can Give Me a Pay Raise and Save World: William Pesek

By William Pesek

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Those of us paid in Japan's chronically weak currency should rest easy: Henry Paulson is on the case.

The U.S. Treasury secretary on Jan. 31 said he's watching the value of the yen ``very, very carefully.'' Well, that's a huge load off my mind, especially as Paulson heads to Essen, Germany, for a Feb. 9-10 meeting of the Group of Seven ministers.

There, perhaps, Paulson's counterparts from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. and even Japan will look very, very carefully over his shoulder as he watches the yen sit there -- weakly -- on his broker screen.

Watch is probably all they will do. For one thing, the G-7's power isn't what it used to be. Without the inclusion of China, India and other developing powers, the world's industrialized elite has little influence over global trends these days. Markets are far more unruly and unpredictable than they were a decade ago, when the G-7 could still have its way with investors.

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a8OlM6NcCA0Q&refer=columnist_pesek

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 10:13 AM

10feb-Biofuels Will Make China, India More Thirsty: Andy Mukherjee (water, water, water....Can we live without water??)

By Andy Mukherjee

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- If water were a globally traded commodity, with unmet demand in China and India reflected in its price, the world might shed its newfound craze for biofuels.

It is bad enough that some of us need ethanol distilled in Scotland to lubricate our evenings.

Growing corn to make ethanol to run sport-utility vehicles is downright silly; nowhere more so than in China and India.

As many as 400 Chinese cities are facing water shortages; farmers in the most-populous nation are forgoing millions of tons of grain production every year. Per-capita availability of water is expected to shrink to alarming levels by 2030.

How serious is the shortage?

``The only thing that worries me about the China story is the water problem,'' commodities investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. in New York and a fan of China, said this week at a press conference in Melbourne.

``If China cannot solve the water problem, that could be the end of the story,'' said Rogers, who co-founded Quantum Fund with George Soros and then went biking around the world.

Amid this water scarcity, China has gone on to become the world's third-largest bio-ethanol producer after Brazil and the U.S., pouring thousands of gallons of water to grow a ton of corn, and then using more water to turn the corn into ethanol.

What a colossal waste.

As recently as December, the Chinese government came up with controls on corn-to-ethanol projects so as not to lose more precious water to producing fuel at the expense of food.

Misusing Water

The tradeoff between water and biofuels may also be crucial for India. One-sixth of India's food output is being supported by pumping groundwater, which is depleting rapidly.

In the state of Tamil Nadu, more than a third of aquifers are ``overexploited,'' meaning the rate at which water is being extracted is more than the pace of recharge.

According to the World Bank's estimates, by 2050 demand for water in India will exceed all available supplies.

India passed a law in May last year requiring gasoline to be mixed with 5 percent ethanol. The saving grace, from the point of view of water conservation, is that India doesn't yet allow sugarcane juice to be converted directly into ethanol. The fuel can only be produced from molasses, as a byproduct of sugar.

``The downside of growing food for fuel is water,'' Fred Pearce, an environmentalist and the author of the 2006 book ``When the Rivers Run Dry,'' said at a sugar-industry conference in Geneva in October.

info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aFruG4mf4HAI&refer=columnist_mukherjee

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 12:43 PM

9feb-Bernanke Correct to Target Inflation

by Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D.

osted on Thursday, February 1, 2007, 3:00AM

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will go before Congress next week to testify and respond to lawmakers’ questions on the state of monetary policy. Since his appointment early last year, Bernanke has gone through two such appearances and has passed both with flying colors. But this year promises to be different. Barney Frank, the new Democratic Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has indicated that he intends to challenge Bernanke’s goal of elevating “price stability” to the forefront of the central bank’s priorities, claiming that the Fed Chairman is effectively demoting the mandated goal of “full employment.”

But this is not the case. Bernanke is doing the right thing by highlighting the importance of inflation targeting. If Barney Frank really wants to keep the economy healthy and the jobless rate low, there are good reasons why he must back away from this confrontation.

The Mandated Goals of the Fed

The current Congressional mandate to the Federal Reserve goes back nearly three decades. In response to soaring inflation of the 1970s, the U.S. Congress passed the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act in 1978, which required the Fed to pursue policies that promote “full employment, low long-term interest rates, and reasonable price stability.” Since low long-term interest rates would not be possible without low inflation, this Act was interpreted as requiring the Fed to pursue the dual mandate of full employment and low inflation.

Because of a growing body of theoretical and empirical studies, economists concluded that monetary stimulus can influence employment only temporarily, but has a far more permanent impact on inflation. Targeting a high level of employment may instead bring about a higher and accelerating rate of inflation.

Inflationary Expectations

The works of Nobel Laureates Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps showed that inflation, once started, soon generates “inflationary expectations.” These expectations accelerate the inflationary process. This is because inflationary expectations become incorporated into the price setting behavior of firms, labor and rental contracts, and interest rates. Inflationary expectations can also depress the dollar on the international markets, raising the cost of all imported goods, including oil.

Once inflationary expectations take root, inflation becomes far more difficult to eradicate. To do so, the central bank must raise interest rates sharply, as they did in the early 1980s, which in turn precipitated a recession. The end result is an unemployment rate higher than it would have been if inflation were stamped out early.

for info:

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/futureinvest/23457

Ichiro

02-10-2007, 09:21 PM

10feb-P
G-7 Presses China on Yuan Flexibility
Saturday February 10, 4:14 pm ET
By Matt Moore, AP Business Writer
G-7 Recommends Foreign Currency Fluctuations, Vigilance on Hedge Funds

ESSEN, Germany (AP) -- China came under renewed pressure Saturday from the Group of Seven to make its yuan more flexible, while Japan emerged from the meeting without a public scolding, despite criticism beforehand that its weakened yen was hurting other economies.

The finance ministers and central bankers from the world's wealthiest nations also called for more vigilance on the rising power of hedge funds, but favored a conciliatory approach toward the industry. They also said major developed economies were showing solid growth, and that added that energy efficiency and diversification -- particularly renewable forms -- remained a priority.

China's tight control of its currency and huge trade surpluses have raised concerns in the West. The G-7 lauded China's commitment to "rebalance growth," but called on the country to let the yuan have greater flexibility in responding to market movements.

"Over the last two days, we discussed ways to keep the global economy growing in a balanced way, including stimulating domestic demand in Japan and Europe and pressing for greater exchange-rate flexibility in China," U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said.

When the G-7 formed, comprising Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States, China was an insular, closed communist state. In the three decades since, China's growth has exploded as it embraces elements of capitalism.

China has amassed more than $1 trillion in foreign currency reserves as it buys dollars to control the value of the yuan -- a practice G-7 finance ministers have criticized in the past.

Ahead of the meeting, Japan had faced complaints from the euro zone that its weakening yen was giving the country an unfair competitive edge, making Japanese goods cheaper than those in the EU.

But Japan was left out the G-7's declaration on foreign currency issues, while China was mentioned by name.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070210/germany_g_7.html?.v=11

Ichiro

02-11-2007, 01:50 AM

11feb-G-7 Urges Markets to Note Japan `On Track,' Omits Yen (Update2)

By Simon Kennedy and Rainer Buergin

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations urged investors to recognize that Japan's economic recovery is ``on track,'' stopping short of labelling the yen's decline as a threat to global growth.

At a meeting in Essen, Germany, the officials bridged a divide between Europeans who want the yen to strengthen, and the U.S. and Japanese who say investors should be free to set currency values without government interference.

With the yen trading near the record low reached against the euro last month, European officials signaled they'll keep sounding the alarm to speculators that the currency is out of kilter with Japan's expansion.

``It's a compromise,'' said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London and a former economist at the Bank of England. ``There are different interests at work.''

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the G-7 wanted to warn financial markets against making ``one-way bets,'' a reference to so-called carry trades, in which investors take advantage of Japan's low interest rates to borrow in yen and purchase higher-yielding assets in other markets.

Low Japanese Rates

Such trades have helped weaken the yen, given the Bank of Japan's benchmark rate of 0.25 percent lags behind the U.S. Federal Reserve's 5.25 percent and the ECB's 3.5 percent. Barclays estimates carry trades are at their most extreme since 1998, when Russia's economic crisis prompted traders to unwind their bets so rapidly that the yen soared 20 percent. Hedge-fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed in the market turmoil.

These trades are ``not appropriate'' in current circumstances, Trichet told reporters in Essen.

In a review of the world economy, the G-7 said its performance remains ``favorable'' with U.S. growth becoming more sustainable, the European economy experiencing an ``increasingly broad-based upswing'' and Japan's recovery expected to continue.

``We are confident that the implications of these developments will be recognized by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessments of risks,'' the statement said.

Further Yen Decline?

info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=al29wy72djiw&refer=home

Ichiro

02-11-2007, 01:51 AM

11feb-Yen May Fall; G-7 Stops Short of Saying Weak Currency Is Threat

By Aaron Pan and Min Zeng

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may decline after the Group of Seven industrial nations stopped short of saying that the currency's weakness is a threat to the global economy.

The Japanese currency is trading near a record low against the euro and the weakest in four years versus the dollar as the Bank of Japan holds interest rates at 0.25 percent, the least among major economies. At a meeting in Essen, Germany, G-7 officials sought to reconcile Europeans who want the yen to strengthen with the U.S. and Japan, which say the market should set exchange rates.

``They came up with a compromise,'' said Alex Patelis, head of currency strategy in London at Merrill Lynch & Co. ``They didn't mention the yen but did warn that the market shouldn't make one-way bets. That won't go very far with the market.''

The yen fell to 121.71 per dollar on Feb. 9 in New York, from 121.13 on Feb. 2. Japan's currency declined to 158.31 per euro from 157.01. The dollar traded at $1.3008 per euro from $1.2961. The Japanese currency lost 0.5 percent last week against the dollar as the yen declined versus 15 of 16 most- traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the G-7, in a communiqué released at the close of their meeting on Feb. 10, urged investors to recognize that Japan's economic recovery is ``on track.'' The statement didn't refer to weakness in the yen.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters after the meeting that the G-7 still wanted to warn against making ``one-way bets'' in the foreign-exchange market.

info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az01lzwdfIbc&refer=home

Ichiro

02-11-2007, 01:53 AM

11feb-G-7 Stresses `Need to Be Vigilant' Over Hedge Funds (Update3)

By Rainer Buergin and Kevin Carmichael

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven leading industrial countries narrowed differences over risks posed by hedge funds, agreeing on further consultations that may affect the lightly regulated pools of capital.

The ministers, led by Peer Steinbrueck, the host of a G-7 meeting in the western German city of Essen, agreed that the assessment of potential risks from hedge-fund operations has become ``more complex and challenging.''

``Given the strong growth of the hedge-fund industry and the instruments they trade, we need to be vigilant,'' the ministers and central bank governors said in their communique. ``We therefore agreed to further pursue the issue.''

German Finance Minister Steinbrueck put hedge funds on the G-7 agenda on concern the expansion of the $1.4 trillion industry threatens to roil global financial markets and disrupt growth. Scaling back earlier calls for tougher oversight, he won the support of his U.S. counterpart Henry Paulson, who has said the funds ``deserve to be scrutinized.''

``We're seeing a maturation in the way governments are viewing hedge-fund risk,'' said New York-based Roger Ehrenberg, former head of DB Advisers LLC, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank AG that managed hedge funds.

``Hedge-fund managers recognize that they've one a poor job at public relations,'' Ehrenberg also said. ``They recognize that they have to cooperate given the size to which the industry has grown.''

info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a.e0r4iHWPNk&refer=us

Ichiro

02-11-2007, 11:00 AM

11feb-Yen May Fall; G-7 Stops Short of Saying Weak Currency Is Threat

By Aaron Pan and Min Zeng

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may decline after the Group of Seven industrial nations stopped short of saying that the currency's weakness is a threat to the global economy.

The Japanese currency is trading near a record low against the euro and the weakest in four years versus the dollar as the Bank of Japan holds interest rates at 0.25 percent, the least among major economies. At a meeting in Essen, Germany, G-7 officials sought to reconcile Europeans who want the yen to strengthen with the U.S. and Japan, which say the market should set exchange rates.

``They came up with a compromise,'' said Alex Patelis, head of currency strategy in London at Merrill Lynch & Co. ``They didn't mention the yen but did warn that the market shouldn't make one-way bets. That won't go very far with the market.''

The yen fell to 121.71 per dollar on Feb. 9 in New York, from 121.13 on Feb. 2. Japan's currency declined to 158.31 per euro from 157.01. The dollar traded at $1.3008 per euro from $1.2961. The Japanese currency lost 0.5 percent last week against the dollar as the yen declined versus 15 of 16 most- traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the G-7, in a communiqué released at the close of their meeting on Feb. 10, urged investors to recognize that Japan's economic recovery is ``on track.'' The statement didn't refer to weakness in the yen.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters after the meeting that the G-7 still wanted to warn against making ``one-way bets'' in the foreign-exchange market.

The yen is the world's worst performing currency in the past month as investors borrow cheaply in Japan and exchange the funds to buy higher-yielding assets abroad, known as the carry trade.

European Concern

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az01lzwdfIbc&refer=home

Ichiro

02-11-2007, 11:02 AM

11feb-G-7 Urges Markets to Note Japan `On Track,' Omits Yen (Update2)

By Simon Kennedy and Rainer Buergin

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations urged investors to recognize that Japan's economic recovery is ``on track,'' stopping short of labelling the yen's decline as a threat to global growth.

At a meeting in Essen, Germany, the officials bridged a divide between Europeans who want the yen to strengthen, and the U.S. and Japanese who say investors should be free to set currency values without government interference.

With the yen trading near the record low reached against the euro last month, European officials signaled they'll keep sounding the alarm to speculators that the currency is out of kilter with Japan's expansion.

``It's a compromise,'' said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London and a former economist at the Bank of England. ``There are different interests at work.''

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the G-7 wanted to warn financial markets against making ``one-way bets,'' a reference to so-called carry trades, in which investors take advantage of Japan's low interest rates to borrow in yen and purchase higher-yielding assets in other markets.

Low Japanese Rates

Such trades have helped weaken the yen, given the Bank of Japan's benchmark rate of 0.25 percent lags behind the U.S. Federal Reserve's 5.25 percent and the ECB's 3.5 percent. Barclays estimates carry trades are at their most extreme since 1998, when Russia's economic crisis prompted traders to unwind their bets so rapidly that the yen soared 20 percent. Hedge-fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed in the market turmoil.

These trades are ``not appropriate'' in current circumstances, Trichet told reporters in Essen.

In a review of the world economy, the G-7 said its performance remains ``favorable'' with U.S. growth becoming more sustainable, the European economy experiencing an ``increasingly broad-based upswing'' and Japan's recovery expected to continue.

``We are confident that the implications of these developments will be recognized by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessments of risks,'' the statement said.

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=al29wy72djiw&refer=home

Ichiro

02-11-2007, 11:06 AM

11feb-IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE IN CHINA
by Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
February 9, 2007

Recently voiced concerns from the Chinese government that their surging domestic stock market was crossing into bubble territory helped to set off last week’s sharp decline, including a single day plunge of 6.5% (the equivalent of more than 800 points on the Dow Jones.) While a bubble may indeed be forming in Chinese stocks, my guess is that there is room for a lot more air before it finally pops.

In fact, the recent warnings in China are reminiscent of Alan Greenspan’s infamous “irrational exuberance” speech in December of 1996. As history has shown, the Chairman was correct (perhaps for the only time in his tenure), but Greenspan failed to comprehend just how much irrationality the markets would bear before they finally gave in. In fact, after nearly four more years of unprecedented market exuberance, Greenspan himself took the “new era” bait hook, line and sinker. Surprisingly, he became one of the market’s greatest cheerleaders. My guess is that before a similar peak is reached in China, officials there will be snared on the same line.

Just as the bubble in U.S. stocks resulted from the inflationary monetary policies of the Fed, the bubble in Chinese shares is being created by the inflationary policies of the Bank of China. However, as Chinese authorities are creating yuan mainly to buy U.S. dollars, the Fed is in effect the driving force behind this bubble as well. As we export our inflation to Asia, the Chinese stock market bubble may be one of the few things in Asia that was actually “Made in the U.S.A.”

One major difference between the rise in the Chinese market in 2007 and the U.S. in 1997 is that much of the rise in China is actually justified by the fundamentals. Unlike the U.S., not all of the liquidity is the result of inflation. Much of it comes from the savings of millions of under-consuming Chinese workers, whose combined sacrifice has enabled business to finance capital investment that has led to enhanced productivity, greater earnings, and higher share prices. Liquidity produced by savings is genuine and the fact that it fuels legitimate investment is one of its primary benefits.

info:http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2007/0209.html

Ichiro

02-12-2007, 12:14 PM

12feb-G-7 Officials Urge Investors to Avoid `One-Way' Bets (Update1)

By Simon Kennedy and John Fraher

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven nations urged investors to recognize Japan's economic recovery may be stronger than they think, warning against making ``one-way bets'' against the yen.

The trades are ``not appropriate,'' European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Feb. 10 after a G-7 meeting in Essen, Germany. ``We want the market to be aware of the risk in one-way bets, in particular on the foreign-exchange markets.''

Japan's currency has slumped to a record low against the euro, raising concern among Europeans their exports would become less competitive. The G-7 said in its concluding statement that Japan's economy will extend its longest expansion since World War II and it was confident this ``will be incorporated'' by investors.

The G-7 still refused to specifically identify the currency as a problem in its statement and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson declined to join Europeans in stating that the yen's slide was out of kilter with Japan's expansion. He reiterated after the meeting that the yen is being freely set by the market.

That means investors may test policy makers' resolve to back their rhetoric with higher Japanese interest rates or yen purchases, analysts said.

`Suitably Vague'

``The statement implies that something is coming if the yen keeps falling, but it is suitably vague,'' said Jim O'Neill, chief economist in London at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ``This isn't enough yet for markets to start buying the yen.''

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aD_Q3Wpfu.s0&refer=home

Ichiro

02-12-2007, 12:16 PM

12feb-European Stocks Drop, Led by Lafarge, Hanson on Rate Concerns

By Sarah Thompson

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks dropped as concern that borrowing costs will rise in the U.S. pushed construction shares down from a record and a slide in oil prices sent energy companies lower.

Lafarge SA, the world's biggest cement maker, and U.K. building materials company Hanson Plc had the steepest losses in at least two weeks on concern higher U.S. interest rates will cut sales in their largest overseas market. Total SA fell after oil slipped from a six-week high.

``There is generally poor sentiment in markets,'' said Kevin Lyne-Smith, an investment consultant at Julius Baer Holding AG's private banking division in Switzerland, which manages the equivalent of $100 billion. ``U.S. interest rates don't look like declining in the near-term.''

All but two of the Stoxx 600's industry groups dropped, paring the benchmark's 3.6 percent advance this year. Stocks have risen to a six-year high in 2007 on speculation earnings growth and takeovers will accelerate.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 0.4 percent to 378.84 as of 12:53 p.m. in London. The Stoxx 50 dropped 0.3 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro, lost 0.6 percent.

Earnings growth for companies in the Stoxx 600 will likely slow to 8.9 percent in 2007, according to estimates compiled by FactSet Research Systems Inc. in London. That compares with a forecast of 14 percent last year.

STMicroelectronics NV, Europe's largest chipmaker, led technology shares lower after Micron Technology Inc. of the U.S. said a collapse in the price of its chips had created a ``horrible situation'' for the company.

for info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akaSDk5Xn8ZU&refer=home

Ichiro

02-12-2007, 12:19 PM

12feb-U.S. Stock-Index Futures Are Little Changed; Caterpillar Rises

By Sarah Jones

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures were little changed before a retail sales report and testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that may give clues on the outlook for economic growth and interest rates.

Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest maker of earth moving equipment, climbed in Europe. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's biggest retailer, declined.

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest oil company, fell as crude oil prices retreated. Novelis Inc. jumped after Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest aluminum producer, agreed to buy the Atlanta-based company.

``Growth has been stronger than what people have been expecting so the markets will be waiting and watching for data to come through,'' said Alison Sinclair, a fund manager at Glasgow- based Resolution Asset Management, which oversees the equivalent of about $71 billion of assets. ``Everyone wants to hear what Bernanke will say.''

Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index expiring in March decreased 1.40 to 1441.50 at 11:24 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 9 to 12,605. Nasdaq-100 Index futures decreased 1.75 to 1790.75.

U.S. stocks dropped last week, led by banks after Fed Bank of St. Louis President William Poole noted defaults in loans to risky borrowers and signaled interest rates may rise. Homebuilders fell for five straight days.

Retail Sales

Investors are looking to a Feb. 14 Commerce Department report on January retail sales, which will probably show an increase of 0.3 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The gain is less than the 0.9 percent jump in December, partly a reflection of lower fuel prices that limited service station receipts.

info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aF_LxWYlcBS8&refer=stocks

Ichiro

02-14-2007, 12:13 PM

14feb-Asian Stocks Advance to Record on North Korea Nuclear Agreement

By Darren Boey

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose to a record after North Korea agreed to end its nuclear-weapons program in exchange for aid. Samsung Electronics Co., the world's largest chipmaker, had its biggest advance in almost two weeks.

``The agreement relieves some of the uneasiness about the political situation,'' said Michiya Tomita, who oversees about $264 million for Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

BHP Billiton and Nippon Mining Holdings Inc. led gains by commodity shares as prices of copper and oil rallied. Sony Corp. jumped after Credit Suisse Group raised its rating on Japan's consumer electronics industry.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.9 percent to 144.57 at 7 p.m. in Tokyo, an all-time high. Nine of the measure's 10 industry groups gained. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.7 percent to 17,752.64, while South Korea's Kospi index rose 1.3 percent.

China's stocks climbed to a record. Citic Securities Co. advanced as a government report showing slowing inflation damped speculation the central bank will increase interest rates.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd. led gains in Singapore after the government increased its economic growth forecast. Markets around the region rose, except India, Pakistan and New Zealand.

Samsung, the most valuable company on the Kospi index, climbed 0.9 percent to 567,000 won. That was its biggest advance since Feb. 2. Kookmin Bank, South Korea's largest lender, rose 1.9 percent to 84,900 won.

North Korea agreed late yesterday with South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor within 60 days in exchange for energy aid. Implementation of the agreement would begin a month from now, said Christopher Hill, chief negotiator for the U.S.

info:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=af8jVjrNbLCQ&refer=asia

Ichiro

02-14-2007, 12:14 PM

14feb-Snow Says China Needs to Open Markets to Create Jobs (Update3)

By Bei Hu and Catherine Yang

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Cerberus Capital Management LP Chairman and former U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said China needs to open the country's market for overseas investors to create the 25 million new jobs a year the nation needs.

New York-based Cerberus is opening a Hong Kong office to expand into China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, Snow said. Capital and expertise from overseas investors could improve the efficiency of the nation's companies and boost jobs, a key focus of the leadership in Beijing, Snow said.

``When you need to create 25 million new jobs every year, you have a heavy undertaking,'' he said in an interview in Hong Kong today. ``As treasury secretary, you wake up every morning thinking about jobs.''

Cerberus and rivals such as Blackstone Group LP are bulking up in China, even after the nation last year tightened rules on buyouts. Blackstone, seeking its first buyout in the country, last month hired former Hong Kong Financial Secretary Antony Leung to lead its foray into the nation.

``The best opportunities are obviously in places where you have sustainable growth, like China, like India,'' Snow said. ``But private equity will also go to places where it's welcomed. It will go to places where the rules are clear, and the laws are enforced, where there's a good judicial system, where there's a process for arbitrating disputes and so on.''

info:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aUhW.D_2YG.g&refer=asia

Ichiro

02-14-2007, 12:15 PM

14feb-Euro Gains After Liebscher Says ECB Is Worried About Inflation

By Agnes Lovasz and Stanley White

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose to the highest in almost six weeks against the dollar after European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said rate setters are concerned inflation will accelerate.

The currency rose the most in three weeks versus the dollar yesterday after an economic report showed growth in the 13-nation euro region accelerated in 2006 to the fastest in six years. Faster growth is bolstering odds that the central bank will add to six rate increases since December 2005. Liebscher told the Austrian daily Kurier that inflation is showing ``upside risks.''

``The risk is actually greater that the euro strengthens,'' said London-based Adam Myers, currency strategist at UBS AG, the world's second-largest foreign exchange dealer. ``We're forecasting 75 basis points in tightening this year. The risk is perhaps we get more.''

The euro rose to $1.3085 at 7:46 a.m. in New York from $1.3039 late yesterday. It touched $1.31 earlier. Against the yen, it climbed to 158.57 from 157.98, close to a record-high 158.99 reached on Feb. 12.

Losses in the dollar may be limited before a speech today by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that may signal the central bank has no plan to lower interest rates.

The U.S. currency may also draw support from a government report that will probably show retail sales rose for a third straight month in January, as Americans redeemed holiday gift cards and took advantage of lower fuel prices.

Sales increased 0.3 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey, after a 0.9 percent jump in December, which was fueled by holiday-season purchases.

ifo:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aRxTEjQoLXzc&refer=currency

Ichiro

02-14-2007, 12:17 PM

14feb-Carry Trades to Unwind as U.S. Slows, Dresdner Says (Update3)

By Stanley White

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will rise to a 12-year high and the Swiss franc will climb to a record by year-end as a slowdown in the U.S. economy prompts investors to unwind carry trades, Dresdner Kleinwort said.

Relatively low interest rates in Japan and Switzerland encouraged investors to borrow the currencies to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets, known as carry trades. An index measuring investors' appetite for riskier markets tends to rise when the U.S. economy grows and falls when it slows, according to historical data from Dresdner Kleinwort.

``There's a big probability of carry trades unwinding and I'm not talking solely about the yen,'' Markus Krygier, London- based head of fixed-income and foreign-exchange strategy, told clients last week in Tokyo. ``A slowdown in U.S. growth will cause an increase in risk aversion. These trades will diminish over the course of this year.''

Against the dollar, the yen traded at 121.29 at 6 a.m. in London from 121.16 late yesterday in New York, and fell to a four-year low last month. The Swiss franc was little changed at 1.2473, down from an almost three-month low of 1.2572 in January.

Japan's currency will strengthen to 100 per dollar and the Swiss franc to 1.08 by year-end, according to Dresdner Kleinwort.

The Bank of Japan's benchmark rate is 0.25 percent, the lowest in the industrialized world. The Swiss National Bank's rate is 2 percent, below the Federal Reserve's 5.25 percent and the European Central Bank's 3.50 percent.

ifo:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aSdVSKC57qTk&refer=currency

Ichiro

02-14-2007, 12:19 PM

14feb-Treasuries Rise First Time in Four Days Before Bernanke Comment

By Anchalee Worrachate and Kevin Lim

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose for the first time in four days before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's testimony to Congress, in which he may say the economy is expanding at a moderate pace and inflation concerns remain.

The Fed chairman will present the central bank's forecast for economic growth, employment and inflation to the Senate Banking Committee today and the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow. Ten-year bonds dropped for the past three days on speculation Bernanke will douse expectations for an interest-rate cut any time soon.

``I suspect Bernanke is going to continue to sound caution on inflation, even though price pressures have cooled as risks are still there,'' said Douglas Roberts, director of investment in Edinburgh at Standard Life Investments. ``The Fed may be on hold for a while, although I still believe they will be able to cut interest rates later in the year.''

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 1 basis point to 4.80 percent at 7:54 a.m. in New York, according to New York- based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 5/8 percent security due February 2017 rose 3/32 or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount to 98 20/32. Yields move inversely to prices.

Fed regional bank presidents William Poole, Sandra Pianalto and Richard Fisher last week said rising prices of goods and services are a concern and mentioned the possibility of an increase in borrowing costs.

Mortgage applications in the U.S. rebounded last week, as refinancing rose to the highest level in a month, an industry report showed today.

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a583IFwFBADc&refer=bond

Ichiro

02-14-2007, 02:14 PM

15feb- AP-Fed Chairman Optimistic About Economy
Wednesday February 14, 10:12 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed Chairman Remains Optimistic About Economy

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Wednesday that the economy should grow modestly this year despite lingering pain from a housing slump and he stuck to the Fed's forecast that inflation will continue to ebb.

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Still, Bernanke wasn't prepared to declare victory and close the door on the possibility of further interest rate increases. Even with recent improvements in "core" or underlying inflation, the situation remains "somewhat elevated," he said. Core inflation excludes the more volatile categories of energy and food.

Bernanke, delivering the Fed's first economic report for 2007 to Capitol Hill, offered a mostly upbeat assessment of the economy's outlook. Besides improvements on the inflation front, the Fed chief also cited some signs of stabilization in the ailing housing market.

"Overall, the U.S. economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace this year and next, with growth strengthening somewhat as the drag from housing diminishes," the Fed chief said in prepared remarks to the Senate Banking Committee.

Currently, interest rates are at a level that is "likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing of core inflation," he added.

Ichiro

02-14-2007, 02:16 PM

15feb- AP-Stocks Rise on Fed Chief Testimony
Wednesday February 14, 10:14 am ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks Advance After Fed's Bernanke's Says Economy Growing, Inflation Will Ebb

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a Senate panel on Wednesday the economy should grow modestly this year despite a drag from the housing slowdown and that he expects inflation will continue to ease.

Also Wednesday, the Commerce Department said retail sales were essentially flat in January amid slumping automobile sales; it was the weakest showing in three months and below what Wall Street had forecast.

Coca-Cola Co. turned in a lower profit and DaimlerChrysler AG pleased investors by saying about 13,000 Chrysler workers would lose their jobs under a plan to restore the U.S. operations' profitability by next year.

The flurry of news follows a day in which stocks showed a sharp climb -- the Dow Jones industrial average gained 102 points -- after news that two companies were vying for aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. helped drive a notion that Wall Street would see an uptick in acquisition activity.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070214/wall_street.html?.v=7

Ichiro

02-15-2007, 01:50 AM

15feb-Japan's Economy Grows 4.8%, Fastest in Almost 3 Years (Update4)

By Lily Nonomiya

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in almost three years as consumer spending rebounded and business investment jumped. The yen rose on speculation the central bank may raise interest rates.

Gross domestic product in the world's second-largest economy expanded at an annual 4.8 percent pace in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today, exceeding the 3.8 percent median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Third-quarter growth was revised to 0.3 percent from 0.8 percent.

The chance the central bank will raise rates next week rose to 54 percent, from 40 percent late yesterday, according to calculations by Credit Suisse Group based on interest-payment trading. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui cited weak consumer spending and slow inflation as reasons his policy board kept borrowing costs at 0.25 percent at its last two meetings.

``The report increases the possibility the central bank will raise rates,'' said Satoshi Kon, who helps manage the equivalent of $19 billion in Tokyo at Pension Fund Association. ``Consumption was stronger than many of us anticipated.''

The yen rose to 119.88 against the dollar as of 11:10 a.m. in Tokyo from 120.72 before the report was published. Yields on the benchmark 10-year bond rose 1 basis points to 1.735 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.5 percent as shares of Takashimaya Co., the nation's largest department store, jumped as much as 8.8 percent.

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYb1F4Eep4fY&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

02-15-2007, 01:52 AM

15feb-Yen Rises to One-Month High as Growth Boosts Case for Rate Rise

By Ron Harui and Stanley White

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose beyond 120 against the dollar for the first time in a month after a government report showed faster-than-expected economic growth, bolstering the Bank of Japan's case for an interest-rate increase next week.

The currency gained the most since Feb. 5 versus the euro as gross domestic product grew at a 4.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. The yen surged against the New Zealand and Australian dollars on speculation investors are reversing carry trades, where they borrow in Japan to buy higher-yielding assets.

``GDP data were better than expected, raising expectations of a rate hike and prompting yen-buying,'' said Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist at Bank of America N.A. in Tokyo. ``The Bank of Japan will raise rates on Feb. 21.''

The yen advanced to 119.96 against the dollar as of 10:57 a.m. in Tokyo, after reaching 119.82, the strongest since Jan. 11, from 120.79 late in New York yesterday. It also climbed to 157.62 per euro from 158.60. It may rise to 115 per dollar by year-end, Fujii said.

The currency may extend gains should it break 119.75, a key technical level, said Jan Lambregts, head of research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong. A breach of the 50-day moving average may prompt a rally to 118 in coming days, he said. Traders use moving averages to identify levels of support, where they expect buying, or resistance, where they expect selling.

``The economy is robust, including consumer spending,'' said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange at UBS AG in Tokyo. ``Data point to a rate hike next week.'' The yen may rise to 119.00 against the dollar and 156.10 per euro today, he said.

BOJ Meeting

Options volatility on the yen against the dollar rose to a seven-month high as traders stepped up purchases of yen calls, which grant the right to buy Japan's currency.

Implied volatility on one-week options on the yen versus the dollar rose to 9.9 percent today from 8.5 percent in New York yesterday. Higher volatility may discourage carry trades, where investors borrow yen to buy higher-yielding currencies, as it implies greater exchange-rate fluctuation risk.

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awaYQDNeA6mI&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

02-15-2007, 01:53 AM

15feb-Asian Stocks Climb to Record on Japan's GDP, Bernanke Comments

By Stuart Kelly

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed to a record after Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in three years and the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman damped concern interest rates will rise in the region's biggest export market.

Japan's Seven & I Holdings Co., the world's largest retailer by outlets, had its biggest jump in one year, while Samsung Electronics Co., South Korea's biggest exporter, advanced the most in four weeks.

``Most of the surprise in the GDP figure was the very strong private consumption,'' said Yuuki Sakurai, who helps manage about $48 billion in assets at Tokyo-based Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co. ``We'd had a very volatile market and that was because of the fear of inflation in the U.S.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added 0.9 percent to 146.04 as of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo, an all- time high. Nine of the measure's 10 industry groups rallied. Stock markets advanced around the region.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent to 17,844.97. Gross domestic product expanded at an annual 4.8 percent pace in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said before the market opened. That was the fastest pace since March 2004.

Benchmarks in Australia and climbed to all-time highs. Markets in Taiwan were closed for a holiday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7 percent to a record yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said inflation may be slowing. Interest-rate futures showed traders see a 20 percent chance the Fed will cut borrowing costs by August, up from 7 percent yesterday.

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJYUR8h8qrN0&refer=worldwide

Ichiro

02-15-2007, 01:55 AM

15feb-Yen Volatility Rises on Quickening Japanese Growth (Update1)

By Liz Capo McCormick

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Volatility on options on the yen against the dollar rose the most in three weeks as a report showed Japan's economy accelerated last quarter.

Traders stepped up purchases of yen calls, which are options granting the right to buy a currency, amid speculation economic growth will make a Bank of Japan interest-rate increase more likely next week. Higher rates may lure investors to yen assets.

A stronger economy ``will firm up confidence for the Bank of Japan and lead to a rate hike next week or by next month,'' said Tom Levinson, a foreign-exchange strategist in London at ING Bank, the largest Dutch financial-services company.

Implied volatility on one-week options on the yen versus the dollar rose to 8.4 percent in New York yesterday, from 6.9 percent on Feb. 13, and approached a six-month high of 10.06 percent set Feb. 6. It was the biggest jump in volatility since Jan. 25.

The yen rose for a third day against the dollar, trading at 120.27 as of 9:30 a.m. in Tokyo, from 120.79 late in New York.

info:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a9K2HjBfxI3M&refer=currency

Ichiro

02-23-2007, 11:53 PM

23feb-Matthews International Capital Management---The Return of the Japanese Investor

David Ishibashi, Portfolio Manager
Taizo Ishida, Portfolio Manager
Matthews International Capital Management, LLC

Since the end of the great asset bubble of the late 1980s, the Japanese investor, has, at first glance, been conspicuously absent from the investment world. For the better part of a generation, the common view of the average Mr. or Mrs. Watanabe was that they just squirreled everything away, either in the kimono drawer or in the local bank, yielding 0.1% per year. Upon closer inspection, reality is different from appearance. The surface may look calm, but underneath, the currents are shifting; the Japanese household asset mix is dramatically changing and is much different from perception.

With the dawn of the 1990s, the average Japanese suffered a rude awakening. He was no longer rich. In the next ten years, he saw his home fall up to 70% from its highs, and equities were down 80% from 1989. From 1990 up until 2003, the best place for your money, the smartest place for your money and the safest place for your money was the bank, and better yet the Japanese Postal Savings Plan. Rates on passbook accounts fell to as low as 0.1%, and you were happy to take it. Risk was to be avoided.

With the advent of Japan’s financial system reform known as the "Big Bang" in 1998, financial institutions were deregulated and there was a small revolution in the financial products offered to the investing public. Gradually, new products offered an alternative to the savings account. And just as gradually, there was a shift from asset allocation to risk allocation. The hunt for return, after more than a decade, was on. Beginning in 2003-2004, investors looked for higher yields. They found it primarily in foreign sovereign funds, yielding as much as 12%. The funds invested in government bond funds of high-yielding countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Iceland. The funds also had the added attractiveness of paying dividends monthly, which was ideal for individuals seeking immediate return. About two years ago, money began to flow into Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (JREITS). Initially, cap rates (the return from rents generated over the cost of purchase) were as high as 6%. But real estate began to rise as demand for office space outstripped the creation of new buildings. Often new buildings were pre-leased to near 100% occupancy before ground was even broken, or the building itself was sold upon completion to a JREIT, bringing the most modern and profitable buildings in Japan into the public domain. Last year, new funds began to flow into emerging market equities, primarily into China and India funds. As Japan began to emerge from a recession, the increased commerce between the Asian continent and Japan attracted investors. China and India funds began to be actively marketed and actively bought. Japanese investors were beginning to come out of their cocoons, putting their money to work.

In 2006, Japanese investors bought a record ¥12.8 trillion (approximately $108 billion) worth of stock investment trust funds, pushing their total balances at year-end to ¥55.65 trillion, a 30% increase from the year before. That is still only 3.7% of the total financial assets held by all Japanese, but still an encouraging sign of a paradigm shift from "savings to investment". ¥5 trillion flowed out of savings accounts last year, as banks proactively encouraged their customers to invest in other investment vehicles. Unlike traditional brokerage houses that have relied on door-to-door sales tactics, people generally trust banks and listen to soft-spoken female bank clerks. The strategy is working, as banks now account for more than 50% of sales in total stock investment trust funds, up from 10% just five years ago. In addition, postal savings banks started offering the same type of service in October 2005 and grew assets quickly to ¥360 billion at the end of September 2006. They have a goal of ¥4.9 trillion by March 2009 as they introduce more products and distribute funds through more network branch offices. The postal savings banks began selling funds at only 575 branch offices. They are scheduled to sell at about 1,000 more branches in 2007 - still a small fraction of the 20,000 nationwide. On top of this, call centers have been set up in January and internet service will start in May. Given deposits of ¥200 trillion in postal savings, the estimate could easily go higher.

Ichiro

02-25-2007, 08:29 AM

25feb-FOREX-Dollar falls vs yen and euro ahead of weekend
Fri Feb 23, 2007 4:23pm ET19

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened against the euro and yen on Friday, with German economic data boosting the case for higher European interest rates and investors cutting bets on further weakness in the Japanese currency.

The German Ifo business sentiment survey for February showed a larger decline than expected but did little to alter the outlook for euro zone interest rates to rise in March. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is expected to hold rates stable for some time.

"Euro zone (economic) fundamentals look better than U.S. fundamentals right now," said Meg Browne, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

At 4 p.m. (2100 GMT), the dollar was down 0.4 percent at 121.02 yen <JPY=>, snapping the pair's first five-day advance since April.

"The speculative community is reducing its short yen positions against various currencies," Browne said. Short positions are bets against a currency.

Despite Friday's gains in the yen, this week the Japanese currency dropped about 1.4 percent against the dollar. And versus the euro, the yen rounded up its worst weekly decline since September 2005.

for info:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070223:MTFH11731_2007-02-23_21-22-59_N23459950&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Ichiro

02-25-2007, 08:31 AM

25feb- AP
Dollar Down Against Major Currencies
Friday February 23, 6:29 pm ET
Dollar Down Against Other Major Currencies After Iran Jitters

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell against the other major currencies Friday after news of Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment shook up investors.

The euro bought $1.3162 in afternoon New York trading, up from $1.3126 late Thursday.

The dollar fell against the yen, dropping to 121.04 yen from 121.55 yen. The Japanese currency dipped Thursday even after the Bank of Japan, encouraged by signs of robust economic growth, raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.5 percent on Wednesday.

Investors were rattled after a U.N. official said Iran did not agree to Security Council demands to suspend its nuclear ambitions. Also weighing on the dollar was a U.S. government report that showed a larger-than-expected drop in gasoline and heating oil inventories, boosting crude prices above $60 a barrel.

Though blamed on worries about Iran, the weakening dollar was driven more by investors looking to sell the U.S. currency going into the weekend, said David Solin, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Conn.

for info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070223/dollar.html?.v=1

Ichiro

02-25-2007, 08:34 AM

25feb- Daily FX
US Dollar Faces Many Risks in the Week Ahead
Friday February 23, 4:26 pm ET
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

• US Dollar Faces Many Risks in the Week Ahead
• Yen Pairs Hit By Profit Taking, But Be Careful of More Liquidation
• Australian Dollar Extends Rally as Gold Eyes $700

US Dollar
Throughout the past week, the value of the US dollar was determined almost exclusively by foreign developments. The dollar skyrocketed against the Japanese Yen on carry trade demand and slipped against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars on rising commodity prices. Against the Euro and British pound, the currency remained virtually unchanged. Even though there was barely any US economic data on the calendar, there was plenty of news that could affect the future direction of the US dollar, the most concrete of which is the potential rise in inflation. Consumer price growth was stronger than expected in the month of January which created a wave of concerns about inflationary pressures. The corresponding rise in oil prices exacerbated that concern as it was the most tangible driver of higher prices in months to come. The potential risk of a major blowup in sub-prime mortgages also sent investors fleeing into safer assets while Iran’s defiance of UN demands raised concerns for geopolitical risks. The pressure on the US dollar could continue to grow as we head into the busy data week. We are expecting durable goods, consumer confidence, existing and new home sales, preliminary fourth quarter GDP, Chicago PMI, personal income and manufacturing sector ISM. Aside from Chicago PMI and ISM, the market is not expecting dollar friendly data, especially at the beginning of the week. A drop in aircraft orders should weigh on durable goods orders while softer inventory data and downward revisions to non-residential and business investment could lead to a significant downward revision in GDP. This supports the technical outlook for the majors, which has turned dollar bearish on the last trading day of the week.

Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen was this past week’s biggest market mover and we expect the currency to continue to be a dominant focus in the week ahead. Traders are getting tired of selling the Yen, especially after the Corporate Service Price index jumped to a 9 year high in the month of January. If US data begins to turn sour, today’s liquidation of short yen trades could exacerbate. Central Bank President Fukui has indicated that interest rates will remain low for sometime and we believe him, but any evidence of stronger inflation or consumer spending will still boost rate expectations. We will get “answers” hopefully next week with the release of retail sales, CPI, unemployment, industrial production and manufacturing PMI. 2007 could be the breakout year for the Yen, to read more about this see our Special Report.

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Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD)