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retire rich
06-07-2004, 08:54 AM
If you're not in eqities you might feel pretty bad..don't. My exposure is limted-35%, the rest is lurking in the G. I 'm waiting for some solid direction..may be a few trading days on the "down low" might cause some buying..but right now..have a wait and see approach.

retire rich
06-07-2004, 09:01 AM
Just heard oil prices may drop another $3-4 dollars a barrell. The thought is, if this happens, the equity markets around the World will explode. Who can you trust....jump in now get some of the rally...or play it safe and miss it...wait until the dips happen.



Right now I will hold my position.

Rolo
06-07-2004, 09:11 AM
I forgot I had some contributions left in G (3.7%), so I just put in a transfer to maintain my current 70S/30C. I was tempted to change to 65S/35C, but I think small caps have more to gain at the moment, in spite of the interest rate malaise.

Big Qs for the week: Will $SPX break 1135? Will DWCP break 444? Will the "T Fund" make up formissed S and C Fund gains? (hehehe)

retire rich
06-07-2004, 09:17 AM
Way to play it:)

Rolo
06-07-2004, 09:44 AM
hehe, yeah, I need some excitement in my life. :cool:

Seriously, I think we are on the virge of a confirmation of a rally that sticks.

tsptalk
06-07-2004, 09:54 AM
toby wrote:
Just heard oil prices may drop another $3-4 dollars a barrell. The thought is, if this happens, the equity markets around the World will explode. Who can you trust....jump in now get some of the rally...or play it safe and miss it...wait until the dips happen.

Right now I will hold my position.

Hi toby. Thanks for joining us! I agree that lower oil prices may be the catalyst the market needs to get out of this long consolidation.

But, we are coming up against the overhead resistance on the S&P so I also agree it isn't quite time to jump in with both feet (in the short term). It may be, but we need that confirmation of a solid move through 1135/1150 (as Rolo mentioned).


Will the "T Fund" make up for missed S and C Fund gains? (hehehe)

I took 3rd in a Hold'em tournament Saturday but looks like the S and C would have made more money for me if I was not 40% G. :D

I'm still in wait and see mode here with one hour to go before the deadline.

Tom

COONDOGCEMETARY
06-07-2004, 10:16 AM
TOM. WHAT DO U THINK GREENSPAN SPEACH WILL DO FOR THE MARKETS , TOMORROW

puertorico
06-07-2004, 10:26 AM
I miss the bus today :s:D

tsptalk
06-07-2004, 10:27 AM
hopetohititbig wrote:
TOM. WHAT DO U THINK GREENSPAN SPEACH WILL DO FOR THE MARKETS , TOMORROW
Good question.

"The Fed chairman speaks on the Central Bank Panel at the International Monetary Conference, London, England."

I'm not sure what he plans to talk about. It doesn't sound like anything exciting enough to stir things up too much here. But he is certainly the modern day E.F. Hutton. (Am I dating myself? :)).

smine
06-07-2004, 10:29 AM
Naaaa.....we all know E.F. Hutton! I'm sticking to G34 C33 S33.

COONDOGCEMETARY
06-07-2004, 10:37 AM
IM 90 PERCENT INVESTED , TRYING TO DECIDE

JerBer
06-07-2004, 10:46 AM
The markets are off to a great start this morning/afternoon! Hmmmmm........

should I test the waters a little more? I've got 5 minutes to decide!!

JerBer

oneyoungbuck
06-07-2004, 11:02 AM
All the Differentials are saying SELL! C Fund-100/ I Fund-46/ F Fund is at 306 above the mean (300). Going 25%G and 75%S, still think S Fund will rise.

Rolo
06-07-2004, 11:08 AM
smine wrote:
Naaaa.....we all know E.F. Hutton! I'm sticking to G34 C33 S33.
Wasn't he the victim of an alleged mob hit, missing to this day?





behehehe...I kid, I kid. "...everybody listens."



1133.54 :}

443.07 :}

yaaaay! :^

Frizz B.
06-07-2004, 11:47 AM
The F fund differential in this market should get to be about 320, if the oil does go down, maybe higher than 320. The I differential is just for the S to I funds, if you are in the stocks and not in the G. If the F differential goes above the 320 mark, time to use your gut feeling on how high it will go. Highest has been 341, 331 only one time each, usually in the 320's. I think I will ride it to the end, since I heard about the oil prices, see how high the market goes, and on the first sign of trouble move it to the G fund.

Brak
06-07-2004, 12:33 PM
Looking forward, the exchanges announced they will be closed Friday to honor President Reagan. That was supposed to be the biggest day of the week for reports with the PPI report getting the most attention. Now that the markets are closed, they won't be able to react until the following Monday. From what I've read, the inflation numbers aren't supposed to be good. I realize it's early but does anybody pay attention to this stuff or have any ideas about an allocation move on Thursday?

Brak
06-07-2004, 12:35 PM
Another thought. If the markets are closed will TSP be closed also? Meaning Thursday's transaction will be effective Monday.

retire rich
06-07-2004, 01:02 PM
Friday is a National day of mourning, and hence most government agencies will be closed.

oneyoungbuck
06-07-2004, 02:44 PM
Its almost closing time, can you believe these numbers!! awesome!!

Rolo
06-07-2004, 03:12 PM
$DWCP
+445.92
6.79

$EFV
+141.11

$SPX
-1140.53
18.03

EFA (https://www15.scottsave.com/GWwwRoot/WBOFrameset.asp?WBOFile=Balances.dll&WBOType=Tradi ng&WBOSymbol=EFA)
+142.40
3.00


Whoo hoo!

Wilshire 4500 broke the resistance past 444. Will it break 456? hmmm

S&P500 at 1140, 1150 does not seem that far away.

The good thing is that it looks like it will close at those prices. Unless, of course, I just jinxed it.

Looking at the MACD, I think we are still on the way up.

The I fund should jump as well, making the S-I differential closer to mean.

JerBer
06-07-2004, 04:04 PM
Why do you think the markets went bonkers today? Was it the oil news? Relative calm in the middle east? Getting closer to the transfer of power in Iraq? Or just because people are happy that summer is almost here? Can this good feeling continue on for awhile, possibly through the next couple weeks or longer? Has the market been conforming to the many differential theories recently?Friz? Rolo? PR?

Anyone got that crystal ball yet?

JerBer

Frizz B.
06-07-2004, 06:50 PM
My differential theory says it is time to sell and get back into the G fund. But am I going to. don't think so. When the market went down I jumped back to the S fund to soon, although I still did whatt my system was programmed to do, I could have done a little better if I had rode the wave down a little longer. So our top number so far has been 341, right now at 315, let us hope with all the good news (330-340) is a possibility, if so, I will be looking to get back to safe water in the G Fund and wait for the next market change backwards. Who knows, hopefully I will be able to adjust the numbers againg to higher grounds.

tsptalk
06-07-2004, 06:59 PM
My differential theory says it is time to sell and get back into the G fund. But am I going to. don't think so. When the market went down I jumped back to the S fund to soon, although I still did whatt my system was programmed to do, I could have done a little better if I had rode the wave down a little longer.
Frizz, This was the one problem I originally had with your system and I love what you are doing withthe adjustments you are making. Sometimes rallies keep going up and declines don't stop decliningjust because our indicators say it should.

Maybe this is where you can get away from your all or nothing strategy. When your indicators hit the old differential, for example,but you think the marketis still showing momentum, maybe you can go to a 75% - 25% or, 50% - 50% allocation until the new differential is hit.

Just a thought. Keep up the good work!
Tom

tsptalk
06-07-2004, 07:08 PM
oneyoungbuck wrote:
All the Differentials are saying SELL! C Fund-100/ I Fund-46/ F Fund is at 306 above the mean (300). Going 25%G and 75%S, still think S Fund will rise.
I like the strategy. :^ That's what I'm talking about Frizz. If we get a little profit talking buck's locked in some profits but if we continue to rally he's still quite invested.

Rolo
06-07-2004, 07:10 PM
Why is the market doing what it is doing? I have no idea. It did seem like that it what it is going to do.

The C fund disappointed me today.

FRO attached. Today's red line is at 331. Notice the future trend direction.

I am contemplating Tom's "take a little off the table" suggestion. Given that a transfer request now won't take effect until Wednesday, I think pulling back half may not be a bad idea.

tsptalk
06-07-2004, 08:29 PM
Rolo wrote:
Why is the market doing what it is doing? I have no idea. It did seem like that it what it is going to do.

Just a reminder, the first 5 trading days of June are typically stronger than average (it sure was this year) but the 6th and 7th day are not very strong. I fact they are pretty weak days historically.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/seasonality_june.gif
Courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com (http://www.sentimentrader.com)

Mr. Duke
06-07-2004, 08:47 PM
Pulling out ofmy 50/50 "I" and "S" going 100% G effective Wed a.m.......looking/hoping for another positive day tomorrow and investor profit taking Wed.

Got to love days like this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rolo
06-07-2004, 10:44 PM
Oh, wow, I forgot about that chart.

If the seasonality is true:


Definitely be out by the 11th day (Jun 16).
The 9th day would be better, which would have been this Friday, but will be Jun 14th instead.
Bailing Wednesday close would be least favourable.

tsptalk
06-08-2004, 10:42 AM
Rolo wrote:
Oh, wow, I forgot about that chart.

If the seasonality is true:


Definitely be out by the 11th day (Jun 16).
The 9th day would be better, which would have been this Friday, but will be Jun 14th instead.
Bailing Wednesday close would be least favourable.

These seasonality charts have burned me at times. Even on the worst day, shown by the dotted lines and based what percetage of the time that day is positive,the market was up about 40% of the time. It's not gospel but a semi-useful tool.

I think it best shows how the first and last days of the month are stronger than average. That is true in almost every month. But the 6th and 7th days of June are fairly beyond random and it is most likely based on profit taking from the strong first 5 days.

Rolo
06-08-2004, 10:47 AM
tsptalk wrote:
But the 6th and 7th days of June are fairly beyond random and it is most likely based on profit taking from the strong first 5 days.

I'll go along with that. I don't think a little profit-taking will hurt anyone.

I still cannot find a chart site that has real-time volume for $SPX and $DWCP, bigcharts.com (I like that site) does not have volume for the indexes.

tsptalk
06-08-2004, 11:09 AM
Rolo wrote:
I still cannot find a chart site that has real-time volume for $SPX and $DWCP, bigcharts.com (I like that site) does not have volume for the indexes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/m1?u This tracks basically all you'll need volume-wise. The NYSE and the Nasdaq are the bulk of all stocks traded in U.S.. These are actual Stock Exchanges as opposed to indices. I don't believevolume is tracked for indices like the Wilshire 4500 or Russell 2000 or even the Dow.

Rolo
06-08-2004, 11:19 AM
tsptalk wrote:
I don't believevolume is tracked for indices like the Wilshire 4500 or Russell 2000 or even the Dow.
Ooooooh....that makes sense...nothin' like searching for something that dosn't exist!

The Yahoo charts have the same problem that all the others I found have: information up to yesterday and none of today's. I wanted check today's volume action to see how much profit-taking there was; light volume would make me happier. :)


What does "Money Flow" and "On-Balance Volume" mean? Ihave no problem finding those.

tsptalk
06-08-2004, 11:41 AM
Rolo wrote:
The Yahoo charts have the same problem that all the others I found have: information up to yesterday and none of today's. I wanted check today's volume action to see how much profit-taking there was; light volume would make me happier. :)

This isn't what you are looking for?...

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.N&d=t

finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TV.O&d=t

You'll have to cut and past them.

Rolo
06-08-2004, 12:31 PM
Those are neat! Ya, that is better than what I was looking for. Thanks!

It looks like today will be a little lighter, but not by too much.

finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TV.O&t=5d

http://ichart.yahoo.com/w?s=^TV.O

Rolo
06-08-2004, 03:36 PM
This is a neat chart from http://smartdaytrader.com

http://www.smartdaytrader.com/images/4060704.gif

tsptalk
06-08-2004, 08:29 PM
That breakout is a great sign that the worst is over. I still think we may pull back to that line and test that new support.

WiseOne
06-09-2004, 12:04 AM
:?Tom, how do you think the death of Ronald Reagon will affect the markets? Heard they will be closed Friday...

Rolo
06-09-2004, 07:31 AM
tsptalk wrote:
That breakout is a great sign that the worst is over. I still think we may pull back to that line and test that new support.
I think so, too. I think that line is a bit comforting in that it may be the lowest it will go for a while, assuming that becomes the case.

smine
06-09-2004, 07:41 AM
The markets are closed on Friday.

Rolo
06-09-2004, 08:02 AM
I wonder how Monday will look, given the recent breakout and the long weekend.