Tally - December 2005

[FundSurfer]

Dec Nov Oct Qtr 6 mon 2005 Total
Dakota 2.51% 4.01% -1.45% 5.06% 12.07% 14.01%
Show-me 2.65% 1.96% 0.98% 5.68% 13.92% 13.43%
Rolo 4.64% 2.44% -2.90% 4.08% 13.36% 11.28%
Neirbod 3.43% 3.13% -2.07% 4.46% 13.98% 10.16%
Pyriel 0.37% 4.85% -2.30% 2.82% 8.73% 7.89%
Skip 0.26% 4.21% 2.80% 7.40% 7.43% 7.69%
Systemtrade 3.18% 3.46% -2.09% 4.52% 7.66% 7.62%
Rod 1.29% 4.91% 1.09% 7.42% 8.60% 7.56%
DrD 2.55% 1.40% -1.27% 2.66% 8.45% 6.95%
TSPgo 0.87% 2.43% -1.53% 1.74% 5.84% 6.22%
Mike 1.29% 3.76% 0.44% 5.57% 6.38% 5.21%
Safetyguy -0.44% 2.75% -0.37% 1.92% 3.00% 3.94%
Beavis 1.02% 4.19% 0.02% 5.28% 12.26% #N/A
Milkman 4.56% 2.49% 1.85% 9.14% 11.61% #N/A
TennisGuy 0.83% 2.82% 2.39% 6.15% 10.37% #N/A
Cowboy 2.03% 2.72% -0.43% 4.35% 8.37% #N/A
Smine 1.58% 1.78% 0.19% 3.59% 7.79% #N/A
Faustus 0.45% 2.68% 0.66% 3.83% 6.19% #N/A
Tekno 0.29% 1.73% -1.51% 0.48% 6.05% #N/A
Gritz 0.64% 4.13% -2.35% 2.33% 5.90% #N/A
Birchtree 0.07% 3.75% -1.66% 2.11% 5.78% #N/A
Bassplayer 0.22% 0.22% -0.43% 0.01% 4.92% #N/A
Dave 0.88% 2.65% -1.29% 2.21% 4.87% #N/A
Asian 1.99% 3.52% -2.36% 3.09% 4.83% #N/A
Spaf 0.45% 4.42% -0.74% 4.11% 4.13% #N/A
Biggdog 1.42% 3.42% -2.87% 1.87% 4.02% #N/A
Citizen -0.18% 2.28% -1.77% 0.29% 3.88% #N/A
Nnut 2.70% 2.23% -2.03% 2.87% 2.99% #N/A
Aggie76 0.71% 0.88% 0.17% 1.77% 2.33% #N/A
CSI 0.45% 0.36% 0.36% 1.18% 2.29% #N/A
Namor 0.43% 1.43% -2.94% -1.13% -0.10% #N/A
Roman777 -0.18% 0.29% -2.73% -2.62% -0.15% #N/A
Grandma 0.05% 3.05% 2.19% 5.36% #N/A #N/A
ATCJeff 2.59% 2.89% -0.37% 5.16% #N/A #N/A
Jovarn 0.34% 5.02% -0.52% 4.82% #N/A #N/A
GGal 1.36% 3.91% -0.57% 4.72% #N/A #N/A
Phlames 3.17% 3.56% -2.26% 4.43% #N/A #N/A
TSP_Elvis 2.10% 3.58% -2.62% 2.99% #N/A #N/A
Ron 1.20% 2.33% -1.23% 2.27% #N/A #N/A
mfm6376 0.07% 3.75% -1.66% 2.11% #N/A #N/A
OU81200 0.62% 4.35% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
oldschool 1.19% 3.00% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
soldat 5.56% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Master 2.15% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
RDPillow 1.99% 3.16% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

G-fund 0.45% 0.36% 0.36% 1.18% 2.29% 4.49%
F-fund 0.95% 0.38% -0.75% 0.57% -0.09% 2.40%
C-fund 0.07% 3.75% -1.66% 2.11% 5.78% 4.96%
S-fund 0.37% 4.72% -2.33% 2.65% 8.18% 10.45%
I-fund 4.64% 2.44% -2.90% 4.08% 14.82% 13.63%
20% Ea Fund 1.30% 2.33% -1.46% 2.15% 6.16% 7.29%

Note: Compounding is not included in these percentage gains. This is done since everyone did not start on the same date. If you have calculated these numbers yourself, you will get a slightly different answer (usually lessthan a couple hundreths of a percent but can be higher especially toward the end of the year if you started in January.)

You had to have started posting in November to be added to this Tally.

This Tally brought to you courtesy of Milk_man who has compiled these numbers. All I have done is print the result. Thanks Milkman for the service!

If you find an error in your spreadsheet, let milkman or myself know so we can correct the spreadsheet. Milkmane-mails the speadsheet to those who ask. There are a lot of numbers entered and mistakes do happen. Hopefully one day we will get this completely automated, but that hasn't happened yet.

[Mike]

I beat the G and C fund? Wow, I guess I'm not a total idiot after all. :P

Dakota w/ a 14% return... that's very impressive with this year's unusual market action (bad January / good September :shock:).


Edit: Happy New Year! :P

[mlk_man]

Fundsurfer, this tally didn't post as nicely as the others. Any chance of cleaning it up or posting it again?

BTW, Dakota had the highest yearly return(14.01%), I had the highest quarter(9.14%) and soldat had the highest month(5.56%).

My personal belief is that if you are able to beat the 20% in each fund scenerio then you had a great year because this is what I believe the average TSP participate who doesn't manage their account should be doing.

If you were able to beat the G fund then I think it'd be considered an good year. Anything less is not too good.

Of course one's own goal is the ultimate assesser.

Good luck this year,

M_M

[FundSurfer]

The post was good before being imported. I'll have to figure out the best way to post the Tally. The size limitation won't let me post a jpg file with the tally and for some reason this board deletes spaces..

I'm attaching a simple text file.

[mlk_man]

These are the averages for everyone that has been posting at TSPtalk.com:

Yearly average per participant:


8.50%





6-month average per participant:


6.80%





3-month average per participant:


3.40%

[neirbod]

Mlk_Man,

In my personal tracker my 2005 return is around 8.4 %, not as good as what you posted. Can you send me your spreadsheet so I can look for the discrepancy. I hope the error is in my calculation, not yours!

Thanks,

Dave

[mlk_man]

Mlk_Man,

In my personal tracker my 2005 return is around 8.4 %, not as good as what you posted. Can you send me your spreadsheet so I can look for the discrepancy. I hope the error is in my calculation, not yours!

Thanks,

Dave


Dave, the returns we show are actually componded. ie, based on a "real balance" so they will most likely be a little higher than if done otherwise.

I can still send you the tracker but I need some place to send it to.............

[neirbod]

Mlk, Can you PM me with an attachment? If that doesn't work, please email the file to: [Edit]

Thanks!

Dave

Edit by Spaf: [Info recieved, covered ur e-mail from trollers. Mlk can use ur e-mail via a PM!] ;)

[mlk_man]

Just sent you the tracker. Looking through quickly, I found a mistake from early Sept. This was before my time. :p

I'll go through it right quick.

[mlk_man]

Mlk_Man,

In my personal tracker my 2005 return is around 8.4 %, not as good as what you posted. Can you send me your spreadsheet so I can look for the discrepancy. I hope the error is in my calculation, not yours!

Thanks,

Dave

Looks like it was your Sept. 2nd transfer. The tracker had it on Sept. 9th instead. Now have you at 8.91% for last year.

[FundSurfer]

I actually took out compounding effect to put all numbers on equal footing month to month. That way someone who starts in November will have monthly totals comparable to someone who has started in January and had an incredible year.

Milk_man if you do any changes e-mail me the updated sheet. I'll be preparing a new sheet for 2006 this week. I'll hold over monthly totals so the rolling quarter and 6 month numbers will still be given. We need the space for another year, especially for our more active traders.

[neirbod]

Looks like it was your Sept. 2nd transfer. The tracker had it on Sept. 9th instead. Now have you at 8.91% for last year.

Ok, that is close to what I have. Too bad, I liked your initial tally better!

[cowboy]

Tracker only shows 6 months of return what about 9 months for quarterly return results.

[mlk_man]

The "tracker" shows returns for each IFT throughout the year. The "tally" shows monthly, quarterly, 6-monthly(?), and yearly results. All depends on when one started.

[cowboy]

So it is missing the 9 month total correct? Actually what you should show is First 1/4, 2nd 1/4, 3rd qtr, then 4th 1/4. So everyone can tell how they have done wether they were in the full year or not. So it is not so confusing. By doing so for example my track would most likely show a higher return then what you have as you are only showing my return for the last 6 months and is missing Jan -June. Even though I was tracked all year except the first week or so. This would give a running total to years end. So my track would show; N/A first 1/4 then show 2-4 to give my final 9 month total and tracked yearly total. It doesn't matter when you started tracking. It is how everyone is progressing is it not? It gives everyone a chance to compare to the leaders or follow those that are doing well. I realize this thing is getting very large and hard to handle. The tracker lost a lot of hard work in the way currently presented and to me is useless to those that are trying to view it. The only use the tracker has is so that members can determine whom to possibly follow at a given time. It seems the tracker tracked my account all year then threw out the first half of the year. Sorry to rain on the tally's parade for the year. As I know some have worked hard on this project. By doing so next quarter would give me a full years total for my account and possibly others to compare to a full year of other members. Hope this doesn't confuse everyone. This then puts everyone on the same playing field even if they didn't start tracking until July as they would have a full year this coming July. Just my .02 cents on the tracker. I am just trying to improve the tracker. So as more members you track the more yearly totals you will generate quarterly. Except you wont call it yearly it will be just be 4th quarter.

[pyriel]

Cowboy,
The trackers don't track posters the way you think. Track sheets always start off at the beginning of the year. What you are proposing is keeping last year's data and migrating them to the new year's track sheet just so posters could show quarterly returns year round. That was never the intent when the track sheet was created. It was supposed to show yearly return since the posters inception of posting their moves. The quarterly or six month breakdown that trackers provide is a caveat to the multiple load of work that they have to do. Many people are receiving the track sheet on a weekly basis which the trackers (it happens to fall under MM's lap at this time) are religiously updating. People can view all of posters moves since they started to be tracked. Your perception that the tracker will just continue to keep tracking through the new year is unfounded. To do this will bring the track sheet to be so big that it will be hard to be sent out and/or received by those follow people's moves.
On the other hand, I would like to applaud MM's and Fundsurfer's work in keeping up with the tally sheet. It is so much easier to be on the sideline and bring out the negativity of their hard work. I also don't feel that they lost a lot of hard work by not reporting poster's other quarterly returns since those who really wants to see it have already PM MM their email address. Just my two cents.
Pyriel

[cowboy]

Cowboy,
The trackers don't track posters the way you think. Track sheets always start off at the beginning of the year. What you are proposing is keeping last year's data and migrating them to the new year's track sheet just so posters could show quarterly returns year round. That was never the intent when the track sheet was created. It was supposed to show yearly return since the posters inception of posting their moves. The quarterly or six month breakdown that trackers provide is a caveat to the multiple load of work that they have to do. Many people are receiving the track sheet on a weekly basis which the trackers (it happens to fall under MM's lap at this time) are religiously updating. People can view all of posters moves since they started to be tracked. Your perception that the tracker will just continue to keep tracking through the new year is unfounded. To do this will bring the track sheet to be so big that it will be hard to be sent out and/or received by those follow people's moves.
On the other hand, I would like to applaud MM's and Fundsurfer's work in keeping up with the tally sheet. It is so much easier to be on the sideline and bring out the negativity of their hard work. I also don't feel that they lost a lot of hard work by not reporting poster's other quarterly returns since those who really wants to see it have already PM MM their email address. Just my two cents.
Pyriel

I see you are implying that the tracker can't be used in this way! I quess my thought was that even though it only tracks a year. It wouldn't matter what the date of start up is and you could clear out a quarter and start inputing new. Too bad it won't work that way! I realize the tracker takes a lot of time. This is basically why it will become short lived. I am disappointed in how the year end tally is shown on the web site though. What a mess! Have fun tracking the most aggressive mover on the board in 2006! You track and I will try to make cash!!

[Wheels]

Have fun tracking the most aggressive mover on the board in 2006!

Milk is the tracker AND probably the most aggressive mover so no problem there.

Milk, I for one appreciate the tracker. I know it's a lot of work. I think the best feature is that it keeps people from making unstubstantiated and outrageous claims.

Dave
<><

[cowboy]

Milk is the tracker AND probably the most aggressive mover so no problem there.

Milk, I for one appreciate the tracker. I know it's a lot of work. I think the best feature is that it keeps people from making unstubstantiated and outrageous claims.

Dave
<><

Oh!! Darn here I thought I was !! Damn I got beat again! Hey, but can he make cash!! LOL!!

[mlk_man]

Whoa, no way was I gonna read all that.........

Let me reiterate, the "tracker" tracks each IFT posted by someone all year. The "tally" posts a summation of what one has done month to month for the last 3 months. It also states what one has made for the last quarter(this is a 3 month total), 6-month period, and YTD (year to date). Since you started posting mid-Jan, your first quarter wouldn't show up until April.

Cowboy, you're moves have been tracked since Jan 13th of last year. I assume you don't get the tracker through e-mail or just have never bothered to look at it. I know what you did and what you didn't. If you go into the "members allocation" thread and look back, you'll see each monthly tally. If you would like me to post what your actual return was for the year, the first two weeks are based on what you stated in your account, I will, but I'd rather not.........

Good luck,

M_M

[mlk_man]

. I think the best feature is that it keeps people from making unstubstantiated and outrageous claims.

Dave
<><

A duck by any other name is still a duck.........:D

[mlk_man]

BTW, I'm sure Fundsurfer will varify this, the tally does keep track month to month no matter if it's a new year or not.

You can find each month's tally in the "member allocations" thread.

Going to watch the Longhorns now..........

[TiCKed]

Going to watch the Longhorns now..........

You mean Trojans, don't you?



:D

[FundSurfer]

When I started putting together the Tally last year, I toyed with the idea of posting quarters as Cowboy suggested. I decided against it because the format I ended up with showed more data. If I had used quarters, Cowboy's first quarter of '05 would have been N/A because he missed the first couple weeks. Those weeks were important since there was a lot of significant loss those weeks.

Looking ahead to 2006, I can set up the Tally either way since I have all the monthly totals from 2005 (look in the yellow box to the right of the worksheet on individual people's pages in the tracker spreadsheet) that were available. I am currently setting up the spreadsheet for 2006 and am planning on carrying over the monthly totals for 2005 that are available.

I really can't add more columns to the current tracker. The page is getting too wide and begins to have word wrap (although I haven't figured out how to post stuff in columns cut n pasted out of excel yet).

What would you like to see? 2005 Total, 05 1Qtr, 05 2Qtr, 05 3Qtr, 05 4Qtr, Current Month, Last Month, 3 months ago, Previous 3 months total, Previous 6 months total, Previous 9 months total, Previous 12 month total, or some other combination? I can have 6 columns of numbers. What is best?

How about Current Month, Last Month, & 4 previous quarters? (This one doesn't sow a long term total but viewer could add it up.)

I kind of like previous 12 month total as well but you can't have it all.

Now is the time since I'm setting it up.

[TiCKed]

You mean Trojans, don't you?



:D


Ummmmm.....Never mind. Guess you knew what you meant. :rolleyes:

[Mike]

Six columns... yikes.

My two cents:

'06 return (this would only have two trading days on it thus far :D )
One month return (Dec 5th through today's close)
Three month return (Oct 5th through today's close)
Six month return (July 5th through today's close)
1 year return (Jan 5th, '05 through today's close)
Cumulative return* - either come up with some unified date for everyone or else just put in some data as to when people started being officially tracked and then have this return = their total return since whenever the beginning was for them.

[mlk_man]

I don't think everyone is on the same track here. What would one expect I reckon..............

The tally that Fundsurfer posts does have people's quarterly returns each month on it, does it not?

The weekly tracker that I send out via e-mail, cowboy you are not on this, tracks each person every time they make an IFT. Perhaps if you got the weekly tracker you'd think differently about how inefficiently we run things and could check your IFT's each week and make sure we got it right?

For the record, the tracker has return for all of last year beginning Jan 13th as 11.74%. From what you said your moves were in your account for the first two weeks of Jan, your return for that period was -.55%. Your grand total for 2005 would be 11.19%. Congratulations!

[FundSurfer]

'06 return (this would only have two trading days on it thus far :D )
One month return (Dec 5th through today's close)
Three month return (Oct 5th through today's close)
Six month return (July 5th through today's close)
1 year return (Jan 5th, '05 through today's close)
Cumulative return* - either come up with some unified date for everyone or else just put in some data as to when people started being officially tracked and then have this return = their total return since whenever the beginning was for them.

The Tally will still be posted monthly, so returns would still be on monthly basis. One month return Jan 1 to Jan 31. Can't handle a daily running tally with the spreadsheet.

The cumulative return is a little confusing. I meant using something like the trailing 1 year return (total of last 12 months). Seem like you are asking for something different here. If we made it from when people started, since everyone started at a different time it would be confusing, I think.

[mlk_man]

I think what Mike is saying is to just add one more column to the tally and make it a "cumulative return" column. For most people this would be the same as their "yearly return" column since they started at the beginning of the year. But for the ones who started mid-January their "cumulative return" column would have their return since joining, whereas their "yearly return" column would say #N|A. This would help the people that don't get the weekly tracker to keep up with their returns. And the trackers...........

This right Mike?

[mlk_man]

Fundsurfer, you get my PM?

[cowboy]

The full year import tally was a disappointment. Can we get more conformity next year. For example for those that just want the monthly tally can it be organized by who had the best return for the month then who was next or maybe put the names Alphebetical. Could this be done quarterly and annually or not. Right now we have to look all over to find who had a total yearly return and organize it some how. What do others think about the import Tally? As this gets bigger the worse it is going to get. Look at that tracker and try to figure out who did what. Can you tell how MM did easily can you tell how I did easily. My point is if the tracker has me at 11% over the year can you tell that by looking at the Tally. I am just throwing things out here. If your going to do this lets try to improve it.

[mlk_man]

If you got the tracker you would know all this...............

Also, if you go to fundsurfer's second post in this thread, you can download the attachment and it looks much better.

Haven't heard anyone else complaining. Hmmmmmmm :p

[mlk_man]

You mean Trojans, don't you?



:D

The eyes of Texas are upon you~~~~~~~

Heck of a game! :)

[Mike]

My idea for cumulative return was more of a long-term thing. If this goes on for years and years, it'd be interesting to see how the old stalwarts have done in that timeframe. Mutual funds have 1 yr / 5 yr / 10 yr performance, etc. - I think it'd be cool to see that for us participants. It wouldn't have much utility in the early going though...

I'm just throwing crap out there to see what sticks. :D

[cowboy]

If you got the tracker you would know all this...............

Also, if you go to fundsurfer's second post in this thread, you can download the attachment and it looks much better.

Haven't heard anyone else complaining. Hmmmmmmm :p

Exactly why no one posts to you MM you always think it is negative. Thanks for noting that the Tally was straightened out in Fundsurfers 2nd post! It looks much better and I appreciate everyone's work on the tally. Now I have kissed your ass! Now why don't you help the board and just take that peace of crap of a tally that was on top and delete it and put fundsurfers 2nd post on top that way any new member can view something worth looking at! Be a good moderator now or ill have grandma beat you over the head with a frying pan!! LOL!!

[mlk_man]

Exactly why no one posts to you MM you always think it is negative.

You might wanna look again there sport. Would you like my password so you can check my PM's also?

You're just being a pain and can't help it. I understand completely........:D

Okay, back to work tracking all those busy little bees................

[cowboy]

LOL!!!! You got me MM!! I figure if I kept you occupied on the board you will miss the dip in the I fund for a move!! I figured if you have the almighty power to delete posts that first post on this thread would be very good use of your power. See ya in the funnies!

[mlk_man]

Can't please everyone. Some know how to "read between the lines", if you know what I mean. :cool:

[smine]

I want some of those stars, MM!

[cowboy]

Can't please everyone. Some know how to "read between the lines", if you know what I mean. :cool:
No!!! I cant read between the lines cause all you did is make one line!! That is not fair MM, your cheating. I am about ready to bet the farm that this rally is going to continue. What u think MM? If this thing holds through Monday I am thinking maybe on spreading a little butter if you know what I mean. I skimmed the cream now it is back to churning are ya following MM! You can't get milk without milking the cows right MM! Of course there is always a few flys in the milk but those city slickers never see that anyway!! LOL!!!

[mlk_man]

No!!! I cant read between the lines cause all you did is make one line!! That is not fair MM, your cheating. I am about ready to bet the farm that this rally is going to continue. What u think MM? If this thing holds through Monday I am thinking maybe on spreading a little butter if you know what I mean. I skimmed the cream now it is back to churning are ya following MM! You can't get milk without milking the cows right MM! Of course there is always a few flys in the milk but those city slickers never see that anyway!! LOL!!!

We call those flies "extra protein" back home............:eek:

If tomorrow is up, I'll most likely jump back in on Monday with ya. I may regret not jumping into the I fund today, but gonna stick with my system this year. Besides, couldn't log onto tsp.gov until 12:05 pm anyway. What's up with that?

[mlk_man]

I want some of those stars, MM!

What stars? :confused:

[mlk_man]

If anyone is having trouble reading the Dec. tally, here is an attachment with highest returns for different periods pointed out.

[$onny]

If you save the text file, open it in Excel, use the "space delimiter", everything lines up quite nicely.

Sonny

[mlk_man]

If you save the text file, open it in Excel, use the "space delimiter", everything lines up quite nicely.

Sonny

You are correct sir! :)

[rokid]

The attached compares the 2005 Tally results in terms of return, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio (a measure of risk adjusted return - higher is better). The return statistics were taken from Milkman's Tally tracker.

The burgundy areas indicate performance superior to the average market timer. By any measure, Dakota, Show-me, Rolo, and Neirbod took extra risk and it paid off, i.e. high return and high Sharpe Ratio. Others, took on higher risk but didn't get paid, i.e. higher standard deviation and relatively low Sharpe Ratio.

I created the passive Global Equities portfolio to see how a stock only, global capitalization based portfolio would have done in 2005. Actually, fairly well. It would have returned 9.95%. The portfolio is 50% domestic and 50% foreign. Specifically, 39% C Fund, 11% S Fund, and 50% I Fund.