View Full Version : Short Term Outlook
The Kingdom of TSP
Tea Leaves, Tarot Cards, and Trend Charts
CHARTS
StockChart.com: S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX)
Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/6a2eu
StockChart.com: SmCap 600 iShr (IJR)
Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/bx4uc
StockChart.com: EAFE iShr (EFA)
Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/exho2
MarketWatch.com: Currencies
Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/cp5d2
StockChart.com: Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund iShr (AGG)
Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/b3b7p
CARDS
StockCharts.com: Market Summary
Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/4d9kq
10-31-05. AM 9:30-9:35 S&P opens with gap 1198 to 1203. Breaks out of trading range resistance of 1200. Appears firm. Pro: Awaiting to see if break out holds. Con: beware of bull traps.
Birchtree
11-01-2005, 01:31 AM
Spaf,
I think you are going to stay plenty busy during your first couple of years in the retirement game - we obviously need your helpful service. The ride up on this next bull leg should be glorious but with many bull traps and head fakes - but with plenty of potential to exercise outperformance gains. I certainly enjoy your perspective.
Dennis
The_Technician
11-01-2005, 03:04 PM
I just posted NNuut that I might be getting a slight change of heart for a short period....this Nov is really a dark dark horse...
We're due for a correction , I wonder if we get the .25% interest rate change or will it be .5%!!!:shock:
May be playing around the S fund for a while....good luck with it all....
:^
Charts and Technical Analysis
(Short Term to Long Term)
Reading the Market
The Dow Theory
[Excerpt] The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today's volatile and technology-driven markets, the basic components of Dow theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamilton and articulated by Robert Rhea, the Dow theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also market philosophy. Many of the ideas and comments put forth by Dow and Hamilton became axioms of Wall Street. While there are those who may think that it is different this time, a read through The Dow Theory will attest that the stock market behaves the same today as it did almost 100 years ago.
RE:http://www.stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/dowtheory1.html
Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
PS: In the recent days the attached chart of the S&P 500, illustrates The Dow Theory principles; identifying the primary market movements, bullish or bearish. We have come off accumulation lows and are now approaching a confirmation of a bullish trend in the market.
Short Term
November 3, 2005
The S&P closed out at 1220. This was 10 points under the prior peak of 1230. The 1st stage of a bullish primary movement has been underway. However the 2nd stage of confirmation; passing 1230 awaits
Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
Short Term
November 4, 2005
The S&P closed out at 1220. [Hey, I said that yesterday!]The October jobs report was a disappointment. Buyers had to get some good Pepto to get the bull out of the barn.
We are still 10 points under the prior peak of 1230, and still in the 1st stage of a bullish primary movement.
The daily candlestick for Nov. 4 was a doji dragonfly. A doji occurs when the opening and closing price are the same.The dragonfly is a doji where the opening and closing price occur near the top of the trading range. This is a reversal signal after a down-trend - control has been shifted from sellers back to the buyers.
Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
vectorman
11-05-2005, 02:52 AM
Thanks for the above info spaf.
The_Technician
11-07-2005, 12:49 PM
Can't argue with your plots there Spaf....looks like a break out for a short period that could extend for a bit....
I didn't get that strong downer I was looking for here this past week.....we did get that set at 1168....even thought I get some numbers around 1265 or so, I will be surprised if we break the 1245 level on the S&P....I think the end of year will just be down upon us....
Keep a clear head and a quick finger....:oo there are bears amongst us!!!
:dude:
Short Term
November 09, 2005
We haven't reached 1230 on the S&P, close,but not a firm confirmation of a bullish primary movement. 1220 seems to bea consolidation point.
Is it up:} or down:{ ? :?
The economy is resilient, and we are in a seasonal good period.
The P-SAR is bullish, along with the RSI, MACD and ROC. Thursday the market will have news on imports and trade, otherwise the week is sort of neutral. However terrorist actions are taking a toll.
Oil remains ok, at under $60
I use short term in the reference of two weeks.
In the past two weeks the returns for C, S, And I funds have been positive.
IMHO:
Fundamentals (economy), and indicators are trending bullish, at present.
Thats my 2 cents! Rgds and be careful! :) Spaf
Soldat
11-10-2005, 06:49 AM
I think that thursday will be down and a rally will either come friday and into next week or start the week after. I think you will be surprised to see how far the next rally will take us. Im just looking to buy in low again after selling high. Market has been holding for 5 or 6 days about the same numbers. That scares me, I might not get a chance to buy in low.
The_Technician
11-10-2005, 12:22 PM
Spaf wrote: Short Term
November 09, 2005
We haven't reached 1230 on the S&P, close,but not a firm confirmation of a bullish primary movement. 1220 seems to bea consolidation point.
Spaf, I think the goal would be 1226....we hit it yesterday and I think 1230 is a far reach.....
Looking for a retrenchment starting real soon....like today or tomorrow....
:dude:
Short Term
November 10, 2005
Comments:
The S&P closed out at 1230.96 with an advance of +10.31.
The previous peak of 1228.81 on 9/30/05 was surpassed, confirming the 2nd leg of the primary bull market.
According to The Dow Theory:
When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.
Primary Bull Market - Stage 2 - Big Move
The second stage of a primary bull market is usually the longest, and sees the largest advance in prices. It is a period marked by improving business conditions and increased valuations in stocks. Earnings begin to rise again and confidence starts to mend. This is considered the easiest stage to make money as participation is broad and the trend followers begin to participate.
Will the 2nd stage hold?
The question is easy, the answer is hard! The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary trend will end.
That was a very general answer, why?
Even though the theory is not meant for short-term trading, it can still add value for traders. No matter what your time frame, it always helps to be able to identify the primary trend.
The critical issues:
The market will support the primary bullish movement, provided the fundamentals stay in place. Items that can cripple a movement are business conditions which relate to the 4 Horsemen of rates, inflation, energy and earnings. There are also outside factors that can influence the movement such as terrorism, storms, and etc.
Short Term game plan (IMHO):
For the short term it will pay to be vigilant. The play is to protect gains. Have a exit strategy in place.
Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
FUTURESTRADER
11-11-2005, 07:24 PM
good sign...$dwcp overcoming s$p 500going in to end of day, small caps/naz lead upas well asdown...slow today with no bonds, monday = real take-off?
The Kingdom of TSP
The Dark Cloud
(what goes up has to come down)
While the market is going up, it is time to prepare for the following bearish primary movement, which is sure to come. It may be in weeks, months or years. In 2005 the movement change has been within month(s).
According to The Dow Theory:
The Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Is Distribution.
Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold.
While the market declines, there is little belief that a bear market has started and most forecasters remain bullish. After a moderate decline, there is a reaction rally (secondary move) that retraces a portion of the decline (classic: the period after 09/12/05).
In reviewing the S$P 500 and the last four peaks: June, August, September, and October.
See StockChart.com: S&P500 Large Cap Index ($SPX)
Link ----> http://tinyurl.com/6a2eu
A "dark cloud" or a variation could be identified in each of the four prior peaks, which is a candlestick reversal signal after an uptrend, warning of "rainy days" ahead. The dark cloud was not text book, but it could be identified within 1 to several days when the uptrend hit resistance and prices started to move sideways.
The long white candlestick indicated that buyers were in control, which is bullish.
The long dark candle stick indicates that sellers were in control which is bearish
Noted that sometimes the dark candle formation may be one or two days, but a higher high is not re-established.
There are two other indicators that would coincide with a dark cloud: the MACD trend and the signal on the slow-stochasitics.
Short Term
November 16, 2005
Reuters
UPDATE 2-U.S. stocks pause as Dow tries to pop above 10,700
Wed Nov 16, 2005 06:32 PM ET
Link to Article ----> http://tinyurl.com/7a6u4
Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
Birchtree
11-17-2005, 10:50 AM
Today will be a good day.
The core CPI was up a modest 2.1% over the last 12 months
The bond market believes inflation is contained.
The Nikkei is +241
The DAX is +46
The FTSE is +39
There has been a lack of conviction in this pull back - onward and upoward.
Birchtree wrote: Today will be a good day.
Good call Dennis!
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b296/Spaf/Bullsacheering.gif
Let's hope Grandma keeps her umbrella open against rainy days!
Birchtree
11-18-2005, 05:33 PM
Alright - now that I have courage - I'll go for another up day. GE seems to be the leader for the future and Nikkei is up another +211. I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P closes above the resistance level of 1245. Whew!!
Birchtree
11-19-2005, 09:55 PM
The stock market's gains this past week came as yields on short term and long term Treasury bonds converged - a tren called a flattening of the yield curve that suggests the Fed's campaign to raise short term rates could stall the economy.
An inversion of the yield curve would be s serious occurrence - despite what AG has stated publicly. The Fed has tightened eight times in the past three decades, and the Treasury yield curve has inverted five times. Each time the curve inverted, the economy slipped into a recession a year later. In late trading Friday, the gap between yields on 2 year and 10 year Treasurys stood at about one-tenth of a percentage point, down from about three -tenths in September.
Lead times vary between the inversion of the yield curve and a subsewuent profits recession. The shortest lead time was six months (June 1989) and the longest was 24 months (June 1973) and (December 1978). The average was 14 months. Equally important, S&P 500 earnings growth rates varied from cycle to cycle. The strongest profits growth when the curve inverted was 22% (August 2000) and the weakest was 8% (January 1969). Definitely something to remain apprised of.
The market seems to be advancing too fast without a breather:a correction!
RSI is over 70 indicating overbought conditions.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.htm
Be careful! Rgds :shock: Spaf
Short Term
IMHO
In keeping an eye on the charts, the S&P 500 (C-fund) has made some very fast advances in the last few weeks. And, there has ben no correction in the recent advances. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) for the S&P is over 70, meaning it's overbought.
The advance is at a very steep level. Meaning that when a correction is made (a secondary movement), the primary movement (being bullish) has a higher risk.
In explaination, I've included an attachment of the iShare Brazil fund [EWZ]. The fund has been advancing quite nicely in the bull market. However, in September the fund got off track and became hot with steep advances. The RSI for the fund cruised in the overbought level. In October the fund got so hot a correction had to be made to cool it off. The fund cooled off till late October with it's RSI in mid range. In late October with the sustained bullish primary movement, the Brazil fund returned to it's normal advances.
The steep advance in the Brazil fund created what one could call a bubble. Advances should be moderate with periodic corrections; creating a sustained advance. When the correction hit the Brazil fund in early October it was fast and steep.
I have used a fund outside TSP to illustrate a trend, and also to indicate there are funds outside TSP that are excellent in performance, or an alternate to TSP. The YTD % for [EWZ] was 51.84. Latin America [ILF] was tops at 53.54, both were ETFs. Other ETFs [IVV] S&P500 was 4.98. [IJR] Sm Caps was 8.95, and [EFA] was 9.52.
Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
Quips
11-25-2005, 12:38 PM
For those interested in emerging markets Vanguard has a "diversified" emerging market ETF. Its return over the past year has been unreal, so I believe I will wait before I take that plunge.
Looks like a good day with Asia and Europe up thus far; most of us are expecting some kind of correction soon, yet year to date returns are belowhistorical averages.I look at the price of oil stubbornly stuck at $57-58 a barrel during aso far mildweather season.
I'll continue to hang at 80/20.
From Bloomberg:
Economic Reports
Gains in Treasuries may be tempered by speculation reports next week will show the economy is strengthening.
The Commerce Department on Nov. 29 is likely to say durable goods orders rose in October for the second month in three. The following day it will probably say the economy in the third quarter grew at a faster pace than initially estimated, economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast.
The Labor Department a week from today may say employers added workers to payrolls at the fastest pace in four months, according to the median estimate of economists.
``Conditions in the U.S. are still buoyant,'' said Michael Thomas, an economist and fixed-income strategist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney, a unit of the world's largest interbank broker. ``Ten-year yields at these levels are still expensive.''
The 10-year yield may rise to 4.75 percent at the end of the year, Thomas said.
Citigroup Forecasts
This year, Treasuries are up 1.82 percent, the worst performance since 1999, when they fell 2.38 percent, according to Merrill indexes.
Ten-year Treasury yields will fall to 4.25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 as growth and inflation slow, according to Citigroup Inc. in a report to clients published Nov. 23.
The Fed will raise rates to 4.5 percent in the first quarter, before bringing the figure down to 4.25 percent by year- end, matching the 10-year yield, it said.
``U.S. interest rates likely will peak early in 2006,'' said the report, written by the global markets team headed by chief economist Lewis Alexander in New York. ``A modest deceleration in the economy should curb inflationary pressures.''
Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in October, the smallest increase since June, and producer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs declined 0.3 percent, the most in more than two years, government reports last week showed.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net.
Rodrigo Davies at rdavies13@bloomberg.net
Short Term
November 29, 2005
In the last few days the market (S&P 500) has moved into a secondary movement, a correction.
We have experienced a "evening star" and a "gravestone" in the daily fluctuations!
The top chart was the RSI: above 70 indicating overbought conditions.
RE: http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/candlesticks.htm
Short Term
December 5, 2005
It's kind of easy to see the short term when you have a steady long term pattern.
See attached (weekly) S&P 500 for the past two years.
The overall trend has been up(bullish)and steady according to the 40 day moving average.
In the short term there are monthly cycles of bullish and bearish movements. However, these cycles have established higher highs and higher lowsin the two year span.
The market is currently good for both buy and hold and short term position trading.
The key, as always, is to buy low and sell high!
Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
Short Term
December 12, 2005
Caution we are still in the twilight zone!
The zone pictured via the DOW is 10825 - 10725
Currently the RSI is hot: overbought
The P-Sar is a short
The MACD is also a short along with the 15dMA
We are at a high, not the time to buy!
Position: capital preservation
The_Technician
01-05-2006, 01:38 PM
I had been looking at the CSI funds, If we get a fall...... I'm speculating the I fund index (EAFE) will be around 56, S fund index (Wilshire 4500) -1215, and the C fund (S&P 500) possibly in the mid 530's....:eek:
Of course this is what may happen, whether it does or not remains to be seen....;)
Bogeyman
01-10-2006, 06:17 PM
I have read TSP Talk for some time now. I have my own techinques to track the market but I also consider TSP Talk information.
I would like to insert what I believe is going to happen to the market. The S&P 500 (C Fund) has reached a new level at 1290, DJ Wilshire 4500 (S Fund) will reach its new level at 577.50, and International EFA (I Fund) will reach its new level at 63.75. After a new level is reached, generally a sharp fall in price follows. So I believe stocks may not be the place to be either Thursday or Friday for a few days to a week or so.
Of course as we have all seen, the market plays funny games with us. But you can bet I will be watching the market very close after tomorrow's close.
I tried day trading for a few months and did fairly well. I made money but, because of our limitation on reallocating funds, I could have done better staying with fund trends. I now am a believer on staying with fund trends. Buy into an increasing fund trend and sell on a decreasing fund trend. That of course will result in missing the trends by about a day or two but the pay off is much better.
I also believe that the I Fund is managed from 2 pm one day to 2 pm the next, based on MST time zone. So that has to be figured in on using the I Fund.
I would like to know if anyone agrees with me on the short term future of the market.
Thanks,
Bogeyman
Bogeyman,
I agree with your analysis, it looks like we are getting close to a top before we consolidatate and go higher... But I also don't think we are in for any major pullbacks yet... I still have a buy on small caps from 1-4-06 and I'm waiting for a consolidation on Internationals to go long.
Short on Germany, Long on Hong Kong. I also agree that the market will drift lower into Friday.
I think you should get a better price on the I Fund soon. It has already started some much needed consolidation.
Final thoughts: The BULLS are still in control of this market. And as you pointed out, "Of course as we have all seen, the market plays funny games with us." THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!!! CURRENT TREND IS STILL UP!!!!
Comments from a Very Good TA that also agrees with you. So if it rallies WITHOUT CONSOLIDATING THIS WEEK I guess we are all wrong!!! Written before the Market open on Monday.
Conclusion
The Senticator is Bullish and the survey data support higher prices early in the week. We're also seeing lots of hints of a near-term top looming. We know, however, that the market will typically rally INTO any top from these types of readings. The options data modestly support a pullback but the readings we see allow for more rally. The Rydex Data did show a large Bullish asset shift and so does the message board actual position poll. The technical picture is quite positive and the weekly MACD turned back up implying a couple of weeks, at least, on the upside. Our best guess is that we rally into a short-term top on Wednesday and then pull back to consolidate for the next leg up. Our call is up into a top on Wednesday, then chop lower into Friday.
Friday looked like a panic selling climax and 1260 held. It was a wild Day Friday! Interesting, but In my opinion it's a corrective move of an overbought condition. I have been heavy fixed income, and added shares to my long term portfolio Friday. Could see some more downside, but I think the Market will drift up next week. When the S&P hits 1350, 1260 will look good. In my long term portfolios with Vanguard two moves a year keeps you invested most of the time.
In the short term I think we drift higher by the end of next week!
Birchtree
01-21-2006, 08:52 PM
Robo,
Liquidity is the difference between what could be a "crash" and what is just an emotional reaction.
At the close of trading, the Dow dropped 213.32, or 1.96 percent, to 10,667.39, giving back all of the 325 points it had gained this year. That was the largest one-day decline since April 15, '05 when the index slipped 1.9 percent. It was also the biggest one-day point drop since the Dow lost 307.29 on March 24, 2003. That was the culmination of the triple bottom that started in July'02, it then proceeded to have a 3000 point upmove.
If my facts are correct the DTA has to hold 4/05 low of 3379.78 - currently at 4158.48 and the DJIA has to hold the 4/05 low of 10,012.36 - currently at 10,667.39 to prevent a Dow Theory secondary sell signal from triggering.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, or VIX, which is derived from options on the S&P 500, surged 2.58, or 21.5% to 14.56. Its Nasdaq 100-based counterpart the VXN jumped to a level not seen since last May. Simply put, the rise in volatility measures means that people are getting ready for bigger moves. Let's do it.
Dennis
The_Technician
01-24-2006, 08:22 PM
that the first week or so of Feburary is questionable..:eek: ...I don't want to scare you out of your investments but I have data that indicates that we could get another drop......reasons could be from anything ....don't count out from interest rates increases to geopolitical situations....;)
Birchtree
01-24-2006, 09:45 PM
The Dow Transports placed another new all-time high offering a confirmation of the DJIA when it penetrated 11043. The Dow Utilities are fast approaching their own co nfirmation when they penetrate 437, they showed some spunk on the close today. I'm sure the A/D line is still not diverting, and it's very, very rare that price will top without A/D divergence.
No. this bull would rather take punishment than panic. Put your ear to the rails - can't you hear the hoofs of the Longhorns approaching - it's one big herd. Big move down could not produce follow through - now stand back and wait for the big move up - maybe 300 points or more. The Bears best get off the tracks because the melt-up is coming. Kinda like the MOAB for Iran.
Dennis - permabull #2
The_Technician
01-25-2006, 01:33 PM
that the first week or so of Feburary is questionable..:eek: ...I don't want to scare you out of your investments but I have data that indicates that we could get another drop......reasons could be from anything ....don't count out from interest rates increases to geopolitical situations....;)
Remember I predicted earlier (EOY) that we would get a market rise early in the year and then a correction would be coming our way....I thought that we could get a drop in above comments....
After further research, I firmly believe we will get a market correction after the first of Feburary.......it looks to be that a sudden drop is a smaller possiblity, but a drop could begin for a month or two ....given that during this period we have Spring break and such (oil price rise-could we be going to $100/bbl??), I wouldn't totally count it out.....
Don't forget the dollar value....it seems to me after doing some currency analysis, the dollar value drop could be coming towards an end.....this would be in time for the above dates....
clester
01-25-2006, 03:08 PM
S fund hit a new high
We didn't close at a new high, though. Did we?
More TA's are talking cash and sell signals. This could be a Contrarian Indicator. I did notice some on the board bought the dip Friday. Could be a money maker. I'm just pointing out what the technicals are indicating, and FOR SURE they are not always correct, but should be respected.
If you are a Conservative Investor like myself, take the Sharks advice and let the Trend show us the way and have some patience here. The Trend is your friend, and the Market is always correct.
The Short Term Risk Reward is HIGH. Iran and Nuke's, the Fed and rate Hikes,
OIL OIL OIL. Protests world wide about offensive religious cartoons. Soon these worries will be behind us, but short term stay cautious! Longer Term I'm still Bullish!
Some comments from a TA Friday about Short Term market conditions:
No exceptions ... everyone should be in cash which includes the higher/risk, short term & day traders. Risk levels are now extremely high, and when the EWI (Institutional Early Warning Indicator) goes negative (which could be today or very soon), we could have some sharp down days.
I'll be watching next week to see if the Institutional Investors take profits in some sectors. This could rock the market and Iran is also big next week. In my opinion you should keep some cash on hand for a possible buying op. However, as I mentioned this could be a Contrarian Indicator. Nice article about it at the link below for new members to the board.
Tom's comments on Friday summarized things up nicely about the short term risk reward.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/060203_correction.html
The Correction from the TA's could be the: The Contrarian Principle
http://www.garsworld.com/Contrarians.htm
cdifrances
02-04-2006, 08:15 PM
Oh my. I'm trying to learn, but it seems as if we're trying to predict the weather with a crystal ball as a few of the weather balloons have suffered an untimely demise. Does anyone really know how to allocate their TSP shares?
Is there an expert in the house?
Birchtree
02-04-2006, 10:20 PM
I'm the only one here today apparently - everyone else is doing something productive this weekend. No matter they'll catch up to you.
I'm the first by default - and I'm bullish. That means I live in the investment world of the risk averse - that is most of the time but not all the time. AT the present time I am as high risk as my TSP account will lawfully allow. I enjoy the benefits of dollar cost averaging into the C fund - and so far the roller coaster ride has been rewarding to say the least. I'm also allocated at 100% C fund and holding. If I were new with 20 years to go I'd be 75%C and 25%I for the next 5 years at least. With a good power account it's a different tiger - but one that can be managed to achieve even more success.
Dennis
ps. I'm going to put up(post) information on the DJIA and the S&P500 - a comparison that is mostly historical. May save you some learning time.
[QUOTE=cdifrances]Oh my. Does anyone really know how to allocate their TSP shares?
cdifrances,
In response to your question above. Yes, look at the current allocations at the members allocation section. Many members have different allocations, but they are allocating THEIR TSP SHARES not yours. You must decide how to allocate your money. You can get plenty of opinions and recommendations here to help you make your decision. That was your question. Does anyone really know to allocate THEIR SHARES. The hard part is making money while you are doing it. Birchtree explained WHAT HE WOULD DO if he was new to investing with 20 years to go. WHAT WILL YOU DO?
Read the opinions, look at the recommendations and then you must decide based on your risk level. Some members are Aggresive investors, others are Conservative. The board is about learning how to manage your account.
Some never make moves like Birchtree 100% in the C Fund, others make 2 or 3 moves a week. Which is better? Again, this is based on THEIR level of risk and opinion on Market direction up/down.
If you want the recommended allocation from experts, look at the allocations in the L Funds. Those are basic recommendations from experts on how to allocate your TSP Funds based on your age.
Tom gives a nice example of some basic allocations for a buy and hold investor, but you will also notice he is in the G fund 100%....
We do use indicators to try and figure out market direction, BUT NO ONE KNOWS WHAT MR MARKET IS GOING TO DO!!!!! ONLY OPINIONS BASED ON INDICATORS THAT WE TRY AND USE TO MAKE MORE INFORMED INVESTMENT DECISIONS.
Keep reading Tom's daily comments, the Sharks, and other board members, and you too will also be giving your opinion! The hard part about all of this is making money. The Market will humble you quickly..
That is why there is no experts in the house. We are all learning, but some are just better informed! Now, how will you allocate your TSP Funds? Keep reading and you will become better informed! A good book by John Bogle.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471295434/bobbrinkersrecom/103-9017708-4068627
http://www.tsptalk.com/allocation.html
Dave M
02-05-2006, 02:42 PM
Predicting the weather is my business. Do not confuse the weather with the TSP, heh.
CDI, what I had to do was determine how much risk I was willing to shoulder. My answer was to risk only my earnings, not my "principle." Therefore the fraction of my total account balance represented by my personal contributions is safely tucked away in the G-fund. The rest is distributed among several of the funds in order to take advantage of whichever one happens to be rising. Having settled on an allocation, I rebalance it monthly in order that earnings (and hence risk) will be in the same percentages as my allocations: 35G 20C 20S 25I. In other words, I am managing an investment portfolio and not gambling.
If you are relatively new to the TSP then you are in for many years of enjoyment. Baby it along by contributing the MAX while investing it wisely, and 20 years from now you will be swinging a club as big a BT's, ~$1 million.
Good luck!
Dave
Birchtree
02-05-2006, 03:45 PM
DaveM,
Birchtree is nowhere near $1mil in TSP. If I have a good year I may approach $1/2 mil but I'll need two points on the C fund to get there.
Now I did hit over $1 mil on my outside account - but it only lasted for two days - got to punt that one again. A good year should potentially turn that into $1.5 mil providing I'm in the right sectors and own the right stocks in those sectors. I plan to do a lot of buying and minor selling of profits to increase income levels from dividends.
It seems few folks are bullish these days - just the way the Bull likes it. It could end up being a lonely ride up, but that's life. Hey, at least you got a view.
Wizard
02-05-2006, 04:19 PM
Bullish Advisors 53%
Bearish Advisors 25%
As of Feb 3rd.
:cool:
Birchtree
02-05-2006, 05:55 PM
Wizard,
I think that my TSP participant investors are acting somewhat like an indicator. Sort of a microcosm, may actually not mean anything in the realm of all things considered - but one never knows when a new indicator may signal something important or something to be ignored, relagated to the existing arsenal of factoids. You understand I'm sure. And I was serious when I said your perspective helps protect my back. This is turning out to be a great board - hope the newbies bring even more information and data to the table of the investing participants.
Dennis
The_Technician
02-07-2006, 02:03 PM
Looking to the near future and given we are in one of the weakest months during the year I would expect the following....
S&P is low of its mid term average and expected to continue. Expecting a downward direction until support is found maybe in the range of 1220-1240...;)
Wilshire is high with a downward directional vector...looking for support in the range of 530's...:confused:
EAF is hurting due to the dollar strengthening...I would not expect the dollar to hold over time and the EAF should be looking for some sort of support in the 58-60 range...;)
AGG will hurting with short periods of positive movement. Inflation reports will persist and will continue to affect the AGG for the time being....:eek:
As a reminder, this is a viewpoint independent of whatever Tom or RevSharks has to say so take it for what ever it is worth...
So far the year is going pretty much as I mentioned at the end of 2005. I continue to hold that line......We should hold the above mentioned directions until possibly May, in which time I may change evaluations.....
mlk_man
02-07-2006, 02:16 PM
Going as you predicted? Hmmmmmm, you're losing clout there sir.
M_M
12-31-2005, 01:30 PM
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Well I've been out at the hunting camp...seen some big foot prints....big buck and doe dancing around......my son is going to get him a big rack this year I believe.....
So what did I tell you last week Soldat....it petered out..:^....and next week it should hold at first and then start a selling slide....and slide and slide......and so on.....:U
Under these past several weeks in the market, where we had a good run and then it petered out at EOY, I wouldn't be holding your money in it .......its profit taking time.....and pay the taxes over a year later....:x
I firmly believe the I fund will drop some here with the C and S funds dropping, expecting the dollar to gain some strength for a bit......then I believe the I fund will come back but its a few months off...:i
Careful Davy,......Keep you eyes open :oothere wolves in them thar woods young Crockett!!!;)
:dude:Today...Dancing With Wolves is on post, The Technician is enjoying the holidays, and Carnac didn't get it right (but he did preceive it might happen....a month or so ago)
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The_Technician
02-07-2006, 03:04 PM
Going as you predicted? Hmmmmmm, you're losing clout there sir.
M_M
12-31-2005, 01:30 PM
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Well I've been out at the hunting camp...seen some big foot prints....big buck and doe dancing around......my son is going to get him a big rack this year I believe.....
So what did I tell you last week Soldat....it petered out..:^....and next week it should hold at first and then start a selling slide....and slide and slide......and so on.....:U
Under these past several weeks in the market, where we had a good run and then it petered out at EOY, I wouldn't be holding your money in it .......its profit taking time.....and pay the taxes over a year later....:x
I firmly believe the I fund will drop some here with the C and S funds dropping, expecting the dollar to gain some strength for a bit......then I believe the I fund will come back but its a few months off...:i
Careful Davy,......Keep you eyes open :oothere wolves in them thar woods young Crockett!!!;)
:dude:Today...Dancing With Wolves is on post, The Technician is enjoying the holidays, and Carnac didn't get it right (but he did preceive it might happen....a month or so ago)
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the pop at the start of the seaon was a bit more than expected with the sell off over the near term until support level is achieved...its just struunnnng out a bit.....but basically its holding true to prediction....
I don't think I'm far off......
Wheels
02-07-2006, 09:18 PM
Going as you predicted? Hmmmmmm, you're losing clout there sir.
M_M
You beat me to it mlk. I seem to remember a call for a 10% decline right off the bat. Even with recent weakness, all the stock funds are up.
Dave
<><
The_Technician
02-08-2006, 12:34 PM
You beat me to it mlk. I seem to remember a call for a 10% decline right off the bat. Even with recent weakness, all the stock funds are up.
Dave
<><
Yeap, we didn't get the right off the bat.....but...
We're 3.29% down on the S&P and its counting down day by day....the C fund has retreated all the way back to 1 Dec 05....and expecting the S to follow....I fund will of course be dependent on the value of the dollar over time......of course you may want to think its all going to continue up......huh, that would be interesting....:D
cdifrances
02-12-2006, 01:20 AM
Predicting the weather is my business. Do not confuse the weather with the TSP, heh.
CDI, what I had to do was determine how much risk I was willing to shoulder. My answer was to risk only my earnings, not my "principle." Therefore the fraction of my total account balance represented by my personal contributions is safely tucked away in the G-fund. The rest is distributed among several of the funds in order to take advantage of whichever one happens to be rising. Having settled on an allocation, I rebalance it monthly in order that earnings (and hence risk) will be in the same percentages as my allocations: 35G 20C 20S 25I. In other words, I am managing an investment portfolio and not gambling.
If you are relatively new to the TSP then you are in for many years of enjoyment. Baby it along by contributing the MAX while investing it wisely, and 20 years from now you will be swinging a club as big a BT's, ~$1 million.
Good luck!
Dave
Thanks, Dave. I'll follow your advice. But what's the story on the I Fund which was doing so well and now seems to be taking a big dive? I'm trying to figure out exactly what TSP is tracking in Morgan Stanley. I couldn't find Morgan Stanley Capital International (EAFE) in the Yahoo Finance acronyms. On the other hand, I can't figure out where NasDaq is in the TSP funds. I'm trying to learn so that I can make better decisions. Any help is deeply appreciated. I understand the G Fund. A bit confused about the F Fund which is pretty dismal. The C Fund tracks the S & P. The S Fund tracks the Dow. The rest is still somewhat of a mystery. I know the old saw, "Buy low, Sell high." Not much of a gambler, I'm mostly in the G Fund for now.
Claire :rolleyes:
Birchtree
02-12-2006, 01:40 AM
The influence os U.S. investors on Tokyo's stock market rise has been especially strong. According to Japan's Finance Ministry, foreign investors bought 1.6 trillion yen (more than $13 billion) worth of Japanese shares in November.
They may be buying still.
The Nikkei Stock Average is up more than 50%, showing the sort of surge commonly seen when investors pile into the hot areas at the end of the year. For Japanese professional investors, the fiscal year doesn't end until March 31. True, there is an enthusiasm (some would say mania) for stocks among individual investors in Japan, but the real force behind this month's rally may reside in the U.S. If that is true, when the New Year wipes fund msanagers' slates clean, and the desperation to but isn't there anymore, stocks in Japan and other hot markets could have a bout of selling.
Dennis
The_Technician
02-21-2006, 03:46 PM
we got a bit or a repreive for a short period of time.....there is good reason to believe that the markets are at a peak and should be turning down for a period....in which I believe will be sometime in April....:(
Keep vigilant.....;)
The_Technician
04-26-2006, 05:12 PM
I know we all have been beating down the doors of late to make a few percent....but...I don't think its a good idea to be in any fund other than G at the moment...:sick:
But that my opinion....;)
The_Technician
04-26-2006, 07:45 PM
I believe we should be expecting a 5-10% correction at least and soon ...so don't get caught holding the bag....:worried:
U can say you heard it here first....I think the crystal ball I just bought is a good'un......it has newer features than that old one...someone remind me to thank Gilligan for making it essential to buy a newer model.....;)
CARNAC the MAGNIFICIENT
Pilgrim
04-27-2006, 06:33 PM
Tomorrow morning (Friday) at 8:30, we get the GDP estimate. Consensus is for 4.9%. I suppose the sweet spot is just a little less than that number. Anybody got a feel for how high it could go before the market tanks in response?
Pilgrim
05-22-2006, 02:02 PM
Boom or Bust time coming!!
12:00 AM ET May 21, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With all due respect to a couple of important reports on home sales, the most important U.S. economic number of the coming week is likely to be one most people have never heard of: the core personal-consumption expenditure price index.
All you have to know about that mouthful of words is that this is the inflation number the Federal Reserve respects and fears. Forget the consumer-price index; if the Fed were to target inflation, the core PCE price index would be the target, not the CPI.
The Commerce Department will report on the core PCE price index on Friday morning, as part of its income and spending release. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are forecasting a 0.2% increase in core inflation after a 0.3% gain in March.
Actually, the whole story is worth reading.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B53AF2C79%2D61DB%2D4B81%2D8ADA%2 DAA097C8F9622%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
Pilgrim
05-22-2006, 04:56 PM
When I got up this morning, lotsa commentators were saying "watch 1258 for the S&P". It can always turn around but right now is under 1255. Suppose it closes like this?
I am not a big fan of technical analysis, but that comes mostly from my ignorance. If a major support level fails to hold, what does that really mean for the next few days? Can one really predict further market moves on something like this? One article I read compared technical anaysis to numerology or astrology, with no better long-term track record. Anyone here think that failure to hold support is a major factor in their own investment choices over the next day or so?
davtrader
05-22-2006, 06:56 PM
Can one really predict further market moves on something like this? One article I read compared technical anaysis to numerology or astrology, with no better long-term track record. Anyone here think that failure to hold support is a major factor in their own investment choices over the next day or so?
No one can predict.....
Support and resistance are zones not a concrete number.
All technical analysis methods simply read and try to project future outcomes.
You do not trade the markets...you trade your beliefs about the market.
SPX-My beliefs are we almost have 5(may be intraday low 5/23) waves down and divergence in RSI..almost over.
good luck
Wizard
05-22-2006, 07:00 PM
Weak support at 64 and 63.
Strong support at 60.
It will probably at least retest 63. :D
Pilgrim
05-24-2006, 12:47 PM
Friday looking really risky. Who's gonna play?
By Dr. Irwin Kellner (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=73+114+119+105+110+46+76+46+75+101+10 8+108+110+101+114&y=Dr.+Irwin+Kellner&z=hofstra.edu&guid=%7Bd2978679-112e-4388-9001-e8bab7aee1f8%7D&siteid=mktw), MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:30 AM ET May 23, 2006
"Headline inflation, as measured by the producer and the consumer price indexes, has been more than expected, while the "core," or underlying, rate of inflation has been creeping up as well.
Speaking of which, the markets are holding their breath until the release of the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core PCE index, scheduled to come out this Friday.
Given what's been happening elsewhere, there's a good chance that this measure will inch up above the range that the Fed and its new chairman, Ben Bernanke, are said to be willing to tolerate."
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD2978679%2D112E%2D4388%2D9001%2 DE8BAB7AEE1F8%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
nnuut
05-24-2006, 08:31 PM
I don't think so!!!!!! No No :mad:
Pilgrim
06-21-2006, 03:05 PM
Short bonds, the two year in particular, continue to yield more than any bond that is longer. How long can this go on before:
a) real effects (earnings losses by banks, other financials, etc) begin to weigh market down; or
b) talking heads turn to this, wake everyone up, and perception drags the market down.
Maybe none of the above? In short, how important is this, really??
ebbnflow
07-24-2006, 01:54 AM
Going through choppy waters...
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Another rocky week ahead for stocks
Investors will weigh earnings, fret about geopolitics
By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:50 PM ET Jul 21, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Trading of U.S. stocks is expected to be choppy next week as investors grapple with the next wave of second-quarter earnings, fresh inflation readings and what appears to be an escalation of violence in the Middle East. Read more here (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF4A7DBCB%2D1D37%2D4B75%2DB8D5%2 D830353F2D326%7D&siteid=).
frokker
07-29-2006, 12:10 AM
And that is why I did an IFT this morning! I'll watch from the sidelines starting Monday and see what develops.
nnuut
07-29-2006, 03:01 AM
I've done really done well at at hitting all the bottoms this week. Just do the opposite of what I do, you'll make out!:(
Pilgrim
09-23-2006, 01:30 AM
Some thoughts from:
http://biz.yahoo.com/usnews/060919/060919_19fed.html?.v=1
Ned Davis Research recently studied Fed rate moves going back to 1920 and found that, typically, it has taken only 5 1/2 months between the last in a series of Fed rate hikes to the first in a series of rate cuts.
If August represented the end of the current cycle of Fed rate hikes, this means the central bank could start trimming rates sometime in February.
Dating back to 1971, the S&P 500 has fallen 2.1 percent on average between the last in a series of rate hikes and the first in a series of rate cuts.
Historically, the market takes off rather quickly soon after the Fed starts trimming rates. In fact, since 1954, the S&P 500 has jumped 10 percent on average in the six months after the first in a series of interest-rate cuts.
mayday
09-23-2006, 05:51 AM
Next weeks economic calendar FOCUS Mon.25 1000ET Existing Home Sales Tues.26 1000ET Consumer Confidence also Japan gets new Prime Minister Wed.27 0830ET Durable Goods Orders 1000ET New Home Sales 1030ET Thus.28 GDP 0830ET Fri.29 0830ET Personal Income and Outlays
mayday
09-23-2006, 10:14 AM
I'm not expecting good news on the August Existing Home Sales Report at 1000ET Monday September 25th but I do'nt know how much of an impact that will have on a market due a rebound. It will confirm an existing economic slow-down in the US but the market has its own voice and pulse and could ignore that bit of info. and soar. Mayday
Pilgrim
09-23-2006, 03:24 PM
I'm not expecting good news on the August Existing Home Sales Report at 1000ET Monday September 25th but I do'nt know how much of an impact that will have on a market due a rebound. It will confirm an existing economic slow-down in the US but the market has its own voice and pulse and could ignore that bit of info. and soar. Mayday
It depends on exactly how bad it is. I think the action over the past two days has been the market pricing in exactly this bad news. If it is only a little bad, i.e. comes in just under expectations, the market will shake it off before the day is done. Any better, the market will rally. For stocks to tank, the news will have to be much worse than what has been priced in, a subjective concept - who knows where to draw a line.
mayday
09-24-2006, 01:57 AM
It depends on exactly how bad it is. I think the action over the past two days has been the market pricing in exactly this bad news. If it is only a little bad, i.e. comes in just under expectations, the market will shake it off before the day is done. Any better, the market will rally. For stocks to tank, the news will have to be much worse than what has been priced in, a subjective concept - who knows where to draw a line.
Sell the rumor Buy the news. Mayday
The_Technician
09-24-2006, 02:46 PM
Sell the rumor Buy the news. Mayday
The action on Friday was weak in strength....we will see this week how weak it was.....
Birchtree
09-24-2006, 11:17 PM
Could simply be the dreaded head fake - notice how many participants in our small microcosm are now G funders. That lilly pad is getting crowded.
nnuut
09-25-2006, 01:23 AM
"F" if you please!
mayday
09-25-2006, 04:49 AM
I do'nt see the I fund making too much progress today. The C & S may make some gains if there is not too much reaction over the August Housing Resale Report. Depending on the reaction will determine my play. If the market is climbing I'll jump to I if its falling or stagnant S Mayday
mayday
09-25-2006, 09:40 AM
Consumer confidence report at 1000ET Tuesday the 26th should bring good news with oil being lower gives the masses more money in their pockets. Expect the dow to benefit. Mayday
mayday
09-27-2006, 10:27 AM
Japan and Australia still have room to move up. Japan could go up to 16800.00 Australia to 51.00 FTSE 100 must break thru 6000.00 Dollar needs to decline in order for the I fund to fly high. Mayday
mayday
10-05-2006, 01:13 PM
Looks like the republicans want to stay in office. Low Oil makes the mob happy. Could keep the market pumped until election. Then theres the holidays. Birch I can see where you coming from snort.
mayday
10-07-2006, 05:37 AM
This upswing in the market is based more on lower fuel costs than increased economic activity. With the holidays approaching that will increase economic activity. Stimulating the economy to quickly will raise inflationary pressure and a fear of further rate hikes.
mayday
10-14-2006, 08:26 AM
We are in a strong up-trend. Have you noticed the dow stays in a tight range then takes off and repeats. In the last two weeks we've gone from 11650 to our current 11960.51 Will it continue big question? Friday hinted at resistance but did not signal a fall. It seems like its doing the same thing. Keep a eye on oil as long as its below 60. The dollar has strenghtened, so watch out I.
Show-me
10-14-2006, 01:11 PM
Short term trend is looking excellent. If the I fund manages a good return Monday I will switch to the S fund.
airlift
10-14-2006, 03:34 PM
Show -
With a rising dollar this is a fine move. QUESTION: will you consider changing to S, even if the I fund does not do well on Monday? or are you staying put in I, regardless? -
Short term trend is looking excellent. If the I fund manages a good return Monday I will switch to the S fund.
Birchtree
10-14-2006, 03:53 PM
The weekly NYSE composite AD MCO posted a +54 value last week, its highest level since July 2003. When the weekly AD MCO first traverses +50 after being below for awhile, higher prices typically follow and corrections are muted in the coming weeks. The weekly composite AD line continues posting new highs. Still running in front of the train - got miles to go.
airlift
10-14-2006, 04:03 PM
Birchtree -
This is very good supporting information of trend direction. Thank you. Is last week the first time this occurs in the recent past? Where can we get this information in the future?. Yahoo? -
The weekly NYSE composite AD MCO posted a +54 value last week, its highest level since July 2003. When the weekly AD MCO first traverses +50 after being below for awhile, higher prices typically follow and corrections are muted in the coming weeks. The weekly composite AD line continues posting new highs. Still running in front of the train - got miles to go.
Show-me
10-14-2006, 05:24 PM
Sponsor,
I will stay with equities until I see MACD, Slow STO, and Wm%R turn down........or if the world blows up.:worried: I am see that the dollar index (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p30687192500)is up against the 200 dma. The trend is up on all equities, some are at the top of their channel It is earnings season, so my question is which one is/will perform the best. I will chase that dog when I get back from my day project. See ya.:D
Show -
With a rising dollar this is a fine move. QUESTION: will you consider changing to S, even if the I fund does not do well on Monday? or are you staying put in I, regardless? -
airlift
10-14-2006, 05:34 PM
Good Stuff! -
What worries me is your first premise - if the World blows up. Speaking of exposions, that would be a big one, with no time to buy the lows! lol -
Sponsor,
I will stay with equities until I see MACD, Slow STO, and Wm%R turn down........or if the world blows up.:worried: I am see that the dollar index (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p30687192500)is up against the 200 dma. The trend is up on all equities, some are at the top of their channel It is earnings season, so my question is which one is/will perform the best. I will chase that dog when I get back from my day project. See ya.:D
mayday
11-10-2006, 11:16 AM
Market Movers: Friday Nov 10th 8:30ET Bernanke speaks at conference in Frankfurt. Tues Nov 14th 8:30ET Producer Price Index PPI An early inflation gauge at the producer level. Tues Nov 14th 8:30ET Retail Sales Gives a sense of what people are buying. Thurs. Nov 16th Consumer Price Index CPI An inflation indicator. {The bond market will rally when increases in the CPI are small @ Fall when increases in CPI are large.} Thurs. Nov 16th 9:15ET Industrial Production {Stocks like healthy economic growth Bonds prefer more subdued growth Capital Utilization above 85% can lead to inflation Fed watches it closely.} Fri. Nov. 17th 8:30ET Housing Starts Ripple efect for home furnishings @ appliances.
S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Timing
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis
Last week we wrote:
"...This time the late week selling (of the prior Friday) did set the tone for the following week as the SPX lost ground and has begun what could turn into a Wave 4 correction. It is still to soon to be sure. The stock market has had a good deal of momentum these past weeks so next week could easily just continue to power higher. But corrections are part of every advance and the current decline has the earmarks of one that could last awhile."
http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
Birchtree
11-12-2006, 02:04 AM
That correction will arrive when there is only one man left still standing and waiting patiently. The Dow will be close to 13,000 and everyone will have thrown in the towel to join the bull except that one man that is still patiently waiting - waiting for Godot. Then and only then will the 10% or better be delivered.
mayday
11-27-2006, 09:47 AM
Market mover Tues Durable goods Concensus -5.0% Range -8.8% to 3.0% Orders show how busy factories will be in the months to come. Increased expenditures on investment goods like electric machinery and computers set the stage for greater productivity and reduces the prospects for inflation. Bond market is sensitive to inflation.
mayday
11-28-2006, 06:04 AM
Bernanke speaks tommorrow along with Durable goods Consumer confidence. Wed focus on GDP consensus 1.8% range 1.4% to 1.9% GDP deflator concensus 1.8% range 1.7% to 2.3%
mayday
11-28-2006, 12:13 PM
Greenspan will speak at a lunch today. I think his comments might influence moves today also.
Brett
11-28-2006, 12:15 PM
If the Euro is hot now because of paying higher interest rates, does that not put pressure on the Fed to, if not raise, certainly be hesitant on lowering rates?
mayday
11-28-2006, 12:34 PM
If the Euro is hot now because of paying higher interest rates, does that not put pressure on the Fed to, if not raise, certainly be hesitant on lowering rates?
I'm not the fed. My opinion the fed has made it known that inflation is it's biggest concern. Raising rates would harm an already shaky housing market. Thats not good for stocks. Your talking about large money moving to the Euro for a higher rate could be but I don't think the fed is going to influence intrest rates beacuse of it.
mayday
11-28-2006, 12:47 PM
manipulate instead of influence
Birchtree
11-28-2006, 01:33 PM
The Fed is now expanding the monetary base once again to protect from potential recession. They keep up the talk about fighting inflation - the key is to watch what they do not what they say. The Fed is not market friendly.
mayday
11-28-2006, 01:43 PM
The Fed is now expanding the monetary base once again to protect from potential recession. They keep up the talk about fighting inflation - the key is to watch what they do not what they say. The Fed is not market friendly.
I dont think there is any way to stop the recession from rearing its ugly head.
mayday
11-29-2006, 04:37 PM
Tommorrow Personal Income and Outlays consensus 0.5% range 0.4% to0.8% Consumer Spending consensus 0.1% range -0.4% to 0.5% Jobless claims consensus 315K range 304K to 325K
BeaverState
09-02-2007, 02:42 PM
September is historically the worst month. Of course, that sometimes makes it a great buying opportunity towards the end of the month.
Birchtree
09-02-2007, 07:21 PM
Look for September to be a great month - dues have already been paid.
tspforretirement
10-05-2007, 03:04 AM
Hello,
If this is just based upon opinion, then I'm bullish for the quarter (Oct-Dec 07).
Consumer confidence and savings is a factor, though, since this is the "buying" season.
Then we have the "regret" season next quarter. :)
Bullishreturn
11-09-2007, 05:13 PM
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK:
http://www.mvcbsa.com/images/wt/firehose.gif
We're hosed.
Bullishreturn
11-19-2007, 04:48 PM
Short term outlook - I expect S&P to fall to 1380 range.
As I said back on 11/09- I think we're hosed.
nnuut
11-19-2007, 05:09 PM
Short term outlook - I expect S&P to fall to 1380 range.
As I said back on 11/09- I think we're hosed.
That's about where I have been thinking! Hope not, but~!:eek:
Bullitt
01-19-2008, 05:41 PM
The Baltic Dry Shipping Index is an index that basically measures the world wide economy. In a nut shell, if shippers are busy then the economy is busy. Measuring the strength of the economy going forward is fruitless and therefore, this is just another tool off the belt.
Bad News: Looks like the bubble is correcting
Good News: We're almost back to support
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/baltic-dry-ship.html
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