still holding pat???

Looks like the market will contiune to ride the upward trend. Anyone esle still in stocks planning to stay? I'm thinking about moving some off the table (ala Tom). May out out the S fund, and park some funds in the G. Looks like it could be a pretty big bounce today...and probably some profit taking too.

[Rolo]

I just stuck with what I had with an exchange from I to S last month.

I did not monkey with it for fear of doing more damage; I am observing still. I'd rather lose money sitting back with my original long-term plan than lose the same amount of money by toying with it in uncertainty and getting frustrated. I started to do that with stocks and finally decided that I needed a break, and "stepped away from the Scottrader!".

Plus, I am convinced that the Fates conspire against me and the dayafter I move to the G Fund, the war will end, Kerry will fall out of the race, Greenspan will decide to lock rates for certain, and the S & I Funds will jump an unprecedented 6%.

I'm still bullish, and it looks like our Saudi friends are going to help, providing some much needed relief, by pumping up their oil production.

Tom, I'm curious about your thoughts about lighting up on the I fund. I was thinking that the I fund is getting ready for a serious bounce up, due to the dollar trending lower, and the bounce the Intl market is having. I think even if the dollar begins to gain more strenght, it will have to have serveral strong sessions before it counters a strong Intl Mkt.

[Rolo]

Aw, not even a chuckle out of that, rr? hehe

Okay...taking my head out of the sand, finally...(thanks to the lively conversation here)...

Yes, today's comments left me wondering if I should sell off my 34% I or ease out of it this week; the dollar's trend channel is a good observation. I suppose we I-holders should keep an eye on it. It is also our chance to see just how much the dollar's move affects the I Fund. Where can we see the EAFE Index in "native currency"?

My 67% S: hmmm. Are we at or near the trading range's nadir? If so, I'll leave it. If not, perhaps I could ditch it and wait for the price to reverse.

I am putting new contributions into G until I see a confirmed rally.

Sorry about that Rolo, that was pretty funny stuff. I'm going to "believe" and hold on to the I fund--wait until something good happens. Actually when this fund was sinking I wa still buying, I am now above my average unit buy cost...but I will hold on for more potential gains...then I may take a step back and refocus..or not.

[tsptalk]

retire rich wrote:
Tom, I'm curious about your thoughts about lighting up on the I fund. I was thinking that the I fund is getting ready for a serious bounce up, due to the dollar trending lower, and the bounce the Intl market is having. I think even if the dollar begins to gain more strenght, it will have to have serveral strong sessions before it counters a strong Intl Mkt.

Sorry rr, I had a busy morning and this is the first time I've been able to get on.

Why do you think the dollar is trending lower?
What I'm saying is that the EAFE index could very well be strong here and run up, but a rising dollarcould make the I fundfeel like it is trying to run in peanut butter (running but not getting very far), so the C and S funds may perform better. Of course the dollar is notthe main catalyst drivingthe EAFE index, the international markets are, but the dollar may hold it back like I said. Even still it is possible it could outperform our funds, but I think the better play is our market. At least until the dollar gets closer to the top of that trend line.

jmo,
Tom

[oneyoungbuck]

I just went Bear today. Seems the market dropped after the report about the bombing in Baghdad. Do you think the market responds accordingly? I like the I fund as well, although the movement is slight.

[tsptalk]

I hadn't heard about the bombing (it's been a crazy morning for me) butI did hear that the price of oil went up so I figured something happened. The market is very nervous and sensitive now. But I will look to get 100% invested on weakness. WhenI checked before the deadline today, things were up so I didn't make a move.

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:
Of course the dollar is notthe main catalyst drivingthe EAFE index, the international markets are, but the dollar may hold it back like I said.
It looks like a dark cloud over our picnic.

Since the international angle is not the risk-spreader it used to be (the world's markets appear follow ours much of the time), I wonder if shifting all I to S is safer. Suppose both had the same gains (be they positive or negative), the impending rising dollar makes I less attractive, yes?


[line]


On a bullish note, a lot of stronger-company stocks seem to be breaking their downward trendslines over the past few dayswithtoday confirming it. I ditched a couple of my losers and am considering adding to my stronger positions this week. This may be the turning-point! Uh oh...I just jinxed it.

Market-wide still seems to be about even as the slugfest continues.

[tsptalk]

Suppose both had the same gains (be they positive or negative), the impending rising dollar makes I less attractive, yes?
I would say yes. Might as well be heavier in C and S with 10 to 20% in I just in case.

[hunterklr]

Here is a link related to this discussion that I think members will find interesting:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=nwhpf&guid=%7B7A80AD0B% 2DDB95%2D4FE4%2D85E0%2DE0AE49E824B6%7D

If an investor were to act on the warnings in this article, they'd jump out of the I fund.

My 2cents worth,

Ken

[tsptalk]

It sure looks like the dollar wants to trend upward but Warren Buffett has been talking about the dollar continuing to be weak so who am I to argue? Then again, Buffett is working for John Kerry now so I wonder how political that statement was.

[Rolo]

Methinks my 34% I should become C this week to eliminate currency riskand mitigate interest raterisk.

I'll still keep MATFX (Matthews Asian Technology) because it's doing just swell.


tsptalk wrote:
Then again, Buffett is working for John Kerry now so I wonder how political that statement was.

!#%%!>??? WHAT!? Age must be taking his mind.

[oneyoungbuck]

That statement from Buffet was likely political. A week economy helps Kerry.

hunterklr, thanks, good article articulating the situational and inherent risk investing in foreign markets, especially with regard to emerging markets. But notice the concluding statement--if you are along termer, good "bet" to have some some foreign exposure. Oh well, hopfully we get a good bounce today.


Martin Schulz, director of international equity for Armada Funds--Schulz offers his clients this advice: "What we tell them is to stay the course with respect to international investments. We do believe the dollar will continue to weaken long term and international exposure provides a good counterbalance to the domestic sphere."

0.56
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Graphic for Monday.
Why do you think the dollar is trending lower?

Tom, it has just been my observation over several sessionsthat the dollar vs Yen, Euro, and pound has been weak. But I agree with your point. If the dollar gains vs the the other currencies, the Intl Market may not perform as well as our domestic.

[tsptalk]

it has just been my observation over several sessions that the dollar vs Yen, Euro, and pound has been weak. But I agree with your point. If the dollar gains vs the the other currencies, the Intl Market may not perform as well as our domestic.

Oh I see. Yes the dollar has been lower for about a week or so. A down trend, within an up trend, within a down trend . :)

[tsptalk]

Did you notice the I fund was only up .15% when the EAFE index was up over .50%? This is the kind of handicap I was talking about that the I fund faces in the coming days or weeks if the dollar continues its upward intermediate term trend.

[Rolo]

OK, ditched the I...70% S, 30% C now. http://www.tsp.gov/resources/rates-of-returns.gif

I thought about putting some in G, but do we really expect more dips?

[tsptalk]

Actually, the low volume has me concerned. We are getting to be overbought and we haven't made any progress. Could be a bad sign for the short term. Perhaps one morepush down?

This is a short term concern only. If you are looking down the road, any more down movement I believe will be short lived. I'm not sure how deep it might get, but I think we will rebound from it pretty quickly if it happens.

[Rolo]

I cannot find a chart that plots the indexes with volume--what do you use?

[tsptalk]

I use decisionpoint.com but that is a pay site. Try bigcharts.com...

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nyse&sid=0&o_symb=nyse&freq=1& time=6

Makes perfect sense right?!Sundaythe futures market looked to be modestly up for Monday..not. Monday, the futures market for Tueday was modestly down.....of course the market is currently up (hope it stays this way)..makes perfect sense???



I'm just glad I'm making "some" money..even if I don't know whats going on. I was wondering what effect if any the President's speech would have on the market. Too soon to tell or what?

[Rolo]

No [bad] news is good news?

[line]

Wilshire 4500ticker w/volume: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum14/226.html

Itseems to be up 4.5% today. yaay. Gee I hope I got the right ticker, heh.

43%/26% Bullish/Bearish advisors.

[tsptalk]

Looks more like 4.50 points or 1.4%. 4.5% is a little too much to ask ;)

[Rolo]

Thanks fer bursting my bubble!

meanie :(

hahahaha





Change:
http://i.bigcharts.net/images/arrows/arrow_up_sm.gif+8.19
Open:
426.10
High:
434.39
Low:
425.07
Volume:
933,885,368

Percent Change:
+1.92%
Yield:
n/a
P/E Ratio:
n/a
52 Week Range:
330.66 to 462.35





A nice gain...I wonder how much of that 1.92% we'll see.

[Rolo]

I ^ 1.33%, so 70% of it. What did the dollar do?

hehe, those C and S shares I bought today were more pricey.

[tsptalk]

The dollar was way down today. Because of that Iexpected more out of the I fund shares today (greedy, aren't I? :P). But I think the EAFE index itself was up only .33%, so the dollar did play a role (1% actually). Strangely, http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.htmlshows the EAFE down in foreign currency today, and up only .21% in U.S. dollars. Maybe we caught a break.

[Rolo]

Aw nuts...that was the Wilshire 4500 quote I put up there...that's what I get for working on two threads at once!

[line]

That link you posted lays it all out, I like that.

Lucky, yes, we got 1.33% out of it, good deal.