288,000 New Jobs

[tsptalk]

288,000 new jobs in April. Estimates were for 175,000. :shock:

Interest rate futures are now betting a 100% chance for rate hike in June. The stock futures market doesn't like this either and we should open to the down side.

Will buyers step in again at the 1107 area again or are we heading to another step down?Weare due for an oversold rally soon but whether that 1107 area holds could tell us if we are likelyto see more downsidein the weeks ahead.

[tsptalk]

The good side is sentiment should really take another hit. Hey, trying to find to find a silver lining here. :P

The market actually didn't open quite as weak as futures indicated. Maybe it was sell the rumor (yesterday), buy the news today.

Now the indices areup. :shock: Looks like this worse case surprise was priced in yesterday.

Since I'm 80% in the G fund , I'm considering a small jump back into equities. I think because of the oversold position, I can make a couple of moves now and may be next week, taking a larger positions in the stocks.

I finally got off the F ship and took a another 10% position in the I fund. Will have 20% at end of day.

[GTO1970]

I just dont understand it!

Investors must be must be using their extra money they would normally beinvesting in the stock market and investing in $2.00 a share for Liquid Gold for the weekend!

GTO

[JerBer]

That's what I'm going to be doing too GTO at the rate things are going this morning!!

JerBer

[smine]

What's the plan?

[puertorico]

288,000 jobs whaooooo ,the market has no feeling,

that's is very good news and nothing happen !

I'M going aboard [G]:shock:REALLY NOT GOOD TIME" ABSOLUTELY"

[smine]

I'm wishing I did that on WED!:(

[puertorico]

lOOK like the market it going to taste march low:shock:

the ball is in the enemys hands !:shock:

-irak:shock:

-fed intersrase:shock:

-march low:shock:

-gas high:shock:

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote: 288,000 jobs whaooooo ,the market has no feeling,

that's is very good news and nothing happen !

I'M going aboard [G]:shock:REALLY NOT GOOD TIME" ABSOLUTELY"

Good news for the economy, butit scares the market because of the inevitable interest rate hike. If we saw only 150,000, the Fed may have waited to raise. Now a June hike is all but a certainty

[GTO1970]

Mr. Greenspan

Please remember its Mother's Day Weekend @}--

"Please" showher you love her and buy her stocks and give her a big Rally this Mother's Day

[tsptalk]

The F fund is getting pounded. :s

[Brak]

Right now the F fund would be at about $9.85 for a 7 cent loss. At this point I'd rather have 100% in F than what I have now (35C/65S).

At this moment the C Fund would be $11.67 for a 6 cent loss.

The S Fund would be $12.59 losing .13

Who knows what the real value of the I Fund will be but it probably goes under $13, the lowest in 6 weeks.

[tsptalk]

This is ugly. I didn't like when the S&P went under 1118 last week and now we've decisively gone under the 1107 area. March lows and the 200 day moving avaerage may be the next targets. I may need to step aside sometime next weekif we get a rally. From the technical standpoint, we have broken down again.

[TGA]

COME ON SMART MONEY !!!! :(

[tsptalk]

:end: Capitulation?!


I hope...

[JerBer]

I can't bear to look guys !!

Tell me when it's safe !!

JerBer :s

[JerBer]

Tom, you wrote it may be time to step aside IF there's a rally next week. If the numbers keep plunging Mon, Tues, Wed you'll ride it to the bottom? I know the fear is if you step aside, you'll miss the upswing, but when is enough, enough?

JerBer

[ChuckBecker]

Hello Folks,

I've been following tsptalk since late March, but this is my first post. So please excuse if I come across a little nervous.

I don't like this market. Someone said it: bad news is bad news and good news is bad news.

I only see current valuations making any sense in an environment of extraordinarily low interest rates. I am a long time believer in the equity markets, I feel very weird being 100% in the G fund, but I'm getting toward the point in my career where I need to take a care.

No doubt there's money to be made in bounces. I just don't think the fundamentals are there to support prices (eg; C fund) much higher, or possibly even at the level, that we're at now. S&P 500 P/E is either 24 or 36, depending on who you ask. That has gotta get down below 20 before there's any sense to this market. Even if you look at PEG, we're still way over 1.0, and there's no great value there.

I'm looking to get back in the equity market, but something's gotta change before I make the jump.

r/Chuck

[tsptalk]

JerBer wrote: Tom, you wrote it may be time to step aside IF there's a rally next week. If the numbers keep plunging Mon, Tues, Wed you'll ride it to the bottom? I know the fear is if you step aside, you'll miss the upswing, but when is enough, enough?

If we get a rally like we had earlier in the week, that is a bounce with no volume behind it, I will use that to raise some cash (G fund). However, if their is a real rebound with volume and follow through I will stay fully in stock funds.

The pain is your friend :P. Use rallies to get out. When you sell "at any cost" a bounce is close behind.

But by all means, if you are not comfortable being invested, step aside. Remember in Thursdays' comments I said, "I admit I am not very uncomfortable with my current allocation."? Maybe I should have listened to myself. :shock:

[tsptalk]

ChuckBecker wrote: Hello Folks,

I've been following tsptalk since late March, but this is my first post. So please excuse if I come across a little nervous.

I don't like this market. Someone said it: bad news is bad news and good news is bad news.

I only see current valuations making any sense in an environment of extraordinarily low interest rates. I am a long time believer in the equity markets, I feel very weird being 100% in the G fund, but I'm getting toward the point in my career where I need to take a care.

No doubt there's money to be made in bounces. I just don't think the fundamentals are there to support prices (eg; C fund) much higher, or possibly even at the level, that we're at now. S&P 500 P/E is either 24 or 36, depending on who you ask. That has gotta get down below 20 before there's any sense to this market. Even if you look at PEG, we're still way over 1.0, and there's no great value there.

I'm looking to get back in the equity market, but something's gotta change before I make the jump.


Hi Chuck -
I just wrote a long reply to your post and it died on me when I tried to spell check it. :@

In a nutshell, I agree from a technical standpoint the market is lookingshaky and that may be enough for me to bail. But from the fundamental side, I believe things look good. First Call'sforward earnings projections for the S&P 500 are about $67. With the S&P near 1100, that gives it a yield ofabout 6% (67/1100). The 10 year treasury note is yielding under 4.8%. In my opinion that makes the S&P undervalued by about 25%.

If you are worried about the market (as I am) get out for technical reasons. Fundamentally I think things are fine. If you are in the G currently (nice move), I'd wait it out and see if we put in a bottom. just my opinion :u

Thanks for joining in!
Tom

[tsptalk]

Amazing. After 4 months of hiding my head in the sand, I pick this week to get aggressive.

Every fund but the G fund is now down for the year. :shock:

[TRAVELER]

WHAT A PAINFUL DAY UGHHHHHH YESTERDAY ON A HUNCH I WENT 100G FOR TODAY AND THANK MY LUCKY STARS BUT HAVE JUMPED BACK IN FOR MONDAY 30C 40S 30 I --IF MONDAY IS LOW I WILL STAY IN STOCKS---- MAYBE A FEW TWEEKS HERE AND THERE---HOPING FOR AN UPSWING NEXT WEEK---WISH EVERYBODY GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY INVESTING!!!!!

[tsptalk]

Nice move TRAVELER (G fund Friday ). :^

[puertorico]

agree, good move traveler ,and my condolence

for everyone who was in the stock, like me.

what a blow ! terrible ugly !

look like is true to sell by may to oct. and

buy by nov to april.

I BAIL myself out for now

I'm gonna sit tight ,wait and see:)

good luck for monday:)

[smine]

Oh woe is us:(. Lost everything made since March. If I can get a rebound will do so and maybe be much more conservative.

[tsptalk]

Don't get me wrong, being in the red as I now am this year kills me, especially since I have been so cautious all year. But to put things in perspective for those of you who have been in stocks funds for the long term, being down 1% in 4+ months this after coming off a plus39% year in 2003 is something I shouldn't complain about.

The hard part is what to do now. :D