S-Fund: A TA Short Term Outlook

[tspgo_com]

It seems as if it is running out of steam.

http://www.tspgo.com/images/sfund050614talk.gif

[Birchtree]

tspgo-com,

Thanks for the graph - I thought the S fund would probably hit the wall later rather than sooner. I think the energy holdings which are broad will continue to provide support to the index into spring 2006. The C fund I think will slowly take over the outperformance duties and lead up for the next couple of years providing we are in a long cycle - keeping my money on the C fund.

[Dave M]

The S-fund is overtaking the I-fund. Barely 25 basis points now separate the two.

Dave

[Dave M]

S-fund should go up about 15 points today, while I-fund will be neutral or negative. That means S will have overtaken the I by a point or two.

Dave

[EW_ret]

Date

S Fund

I Fund


Jul 05, 2005

15.30

15.20
The S Fund did overtake the I Fund on a Net Asset Value basis today.

[tspgo_com]

Do you see what I see ....?

http://www.tspgo.com/images/cfund050726talk.gif

We are approaching an area of great concern. If the S&P and the C-Fund do not break out of this Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST) big trouble lies ahead. There are about 20-30 more points to the up side, then down the drain it goes. If the S&P goes down it will take everything down with it. Including the C, S, and I. If you are not following the 5-5-10 Rule, I would say it is time to play it safe and run for cover. August is not known for being a great month for stocks.

Happy trading,

TSPGO!

[The_Technician]

Hmmm....moving out of the S today and into the I would probably be a good play...wish I had seen it two days ago....could be if one did such a thing that a quick 5% could have been realized....

:dude:

[vectorman]

The Technician wrote: Hmmm....moving out of the S today and into the I would probably be a good play...wish I had seen it two days ago....could be if one did such a thing that a quick 5% could have been realized....

:dude:

Hey Tech, can you explain a little more why moving out of S is a good idea. Is it because of the recent good gains in S that it might rest, while the I fund will now get the bounce?


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=95899W10&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=efa &ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2& state=8&sid=999166&style=320&time=6&freq=1&nosetti ngs=1&rand=9694&mocktick=1

[The_Technician]

Yea....S took a jump but I expect it will make a drop for a day or two.....I'm expecting I to jump next for a couple ofl days possibly....then depending on the market whether S will jump again....

I'mlooking at some newer data manipulations and recent trends of what might happen.....the best thing is we're in a up mode for the market but I can't say for how long...given the overall disposition....I'd say it won't last long....but who knows right.....

Nothing like having a hair trigger....

:^

[The_Technician]

The market winds have changed right in front of us over the last month....oil has been given the market a reprieve.....after considering all I know of control system theory, I should have guessed it....they (those who are pulling the world economic strings) are going to play this thing full tilt.....with a good economy and returns on commodities, interest rates, and earnings throttling along at a fair rate.....that would be a balanced output for such a system....;)

This bodes well for the market environment for many money making opportunities....if you can pick out the right time to get in and out....:^

I'm gonna love this....:):):)

:dude:

[tspgo_com]

The S-Fund seems to be completing a "Cup and Handle" formation. Wait for the handle to be formed. ( the retracing). Get back in when the subsequent breakout takes place. Keep in mind the possibility that the pattern will fail, and breakout in a downtrend. A premature entry might be a call for disaster.
file:///C:/Program%20Files/WPK/websites/tspgoframes/images/sfund051114talk.gif

[The_Technician]

Aftergetting raw Whilshire 4500 datathe other day I believe we should have a positive day today......maybe we can get to 536 and above here....

I'm kinda thinking that we could go on to the 570's range if everything pans out on the market for the next several months....

Please keep the oil guys in the closet.....they sure know how to wreck the economy for everybody else....

Take my speculations as just that.....speculations....its just I haven't been tracking the Whilshire before and until some practical stability has been obtained, predictions can go weird......

:^

[mlk_man]

Should of told me this yesterday morning................:P

[The_Technician]

Well MM, I didn't get settled into the Whilshire 4500 data until yesterday.....I finished the analysis and made some educated guesses.....

I really like that F fund right now also.....I probably will be trading in and out of the S and F fund for a while.....

At the moment, I'm not listing my trades until I get some background on my progress....then when it looks promising, I'll start listing my trades again.....needless to say I haven't liked my performance of late...I've just been off enough to make me rethink some things .....I have learned that I didn't have enough data to make good decisions.....sometimes you never can make it perfect....

I'll say this much.....its looking good so far.....I like what I changed and its promising......

"There is the only the search, no answers..."

:dude:

[The_Technician]

The Technician wrote: Aftergetting raw Whilshire 4500 datathe other day I believe we should have a positive day today......maybe we can get to 536 and above here....

I'm kinda thinking that we could go on to the 570's range if everything pans out on the market for the next several months....

Please keep the oil guys in the closet.....they sure know how to wreck the economy for everybody else....

Take my speculations as just that.....speculations....its just I haven't been tracking the Whilshire before and until some practical stability has been obtained, predictions can go weird......

:^

535+!!!! :shock::shock:Dang MM...close enough I say!!!

Must be something in those analysis calculations of mine!!!!

By the way, how does Mid to late Jan sound......at 570's???

Wonder if we will get there....oil has to stay in the closet....

:dude:

[The_Technician]

If you have read my recent posts, I mentioned that the S fund looks to be topped out for a momentary reset....today's action really affirms the topped out scenario, whether or not we get the momentary reset is another scenario...still believing that we're going to the 570's in Jan......

Lets see if we get a market rest till next Monday.....speculation that the market will take a rest due to the holiday weekahead and that it jumped great gains here lately....

At least alot ofmy newer data says it should....but who really knows before the fact....

:^

[The_Technician]

The other day I mentioned we may get a correction in the S of up to 8 percent I believe.....After looking at this mornings data I still speculate that the prediction is still possible.....the markets look low this mornings opening and could just start this downdraft.....;)

Its been good the last couple of weeks.....:^.....remember, I'm experimenting with some new analysis and take my outlook with a grain of salt....

Currently I'm looking for an entry point into the F fund until I get back to the S.......

:dude:

[The_Technician]

it does look like the correction of the S fund that I mentioned last week is in effect...:shock:........I would be looking for a possible 10% correction before its all over for the next week....then consider the fund for a trade.....its outperforming the C fund at the moment and I expect it to do so for the near future...;)

F Fund is kicking the G fund around a bit....I would like to get into it but I have been waiting for an entry point.....one that may never come....:?

:^The Technician

[The_Technician]

After further review I firmly believe that the bottom line (it changing daily) that the Wilshire could reach in the next several days is in the low 530's.....if it reaches this point I would think that the correction would be over....and it could be time to reinvest....:^

:dude: The Technician

[FUTURESTRADER]

alllrighty..place your bets...S fund finish higher or lower tomorrow...my bet 60% chance it closes higher..therefore 60S 40G before deadline..not for tracking:^

[The_Technician]

I've been looking at that and I believe we're on the way up from here....market really turned head quickly and I believe we are racing for a peak by first week of Jan at this point.....that brings up next year and what should we expect....

Keep those oil guys gooed up!

:^

[Soldat]

I concur, except that we will peak before Jan 1.

[The_Technician]

Geesssss, :' I just discovered one of my calculations given the percentage gain of the funds on the daily basis was incorrect.....it only mattered on the percentages of gains and losses....but still....man this :@. Boy I get a thumbs down on this one....:Uand maybe a dunce hat too :dah:.

All the level predictions on the indexs were not affected ....

So much for new software development .....I'm just beta testing away.....:h

At least the directional/date predictions were not affected.....:i

I'll just keep my mouth shut some until things work out a bit more.....
:dude:

[The_Technician]

Looks we should just take a one or two day hiatus here and then move on from here....We're probably two to threeweeks away from something happening to end all this...

Looking forward to more gains for the time being...

:dude:

[robo]

Technician wrote:

Looks we should just take a one or two day hiatus here and then move on from here

I agree with your outlook.... Closed out some long positions Friday.... I'm not willing to short the market here, but we could head to the low 1250's.....If 1245 fails the bulls will have trouble with new highs, but still doable.... I have been selling into all rallies above 1260.... 1280's will be tough until after the 15th.... Closed out most long postions until the market decides....

Lots of computer software signaled sell today.... We could easily see 2 more days of sideway and down action..... Maybe a rally by the end of the week...

Comments from a Tech Sunday:

I'm confident that we'll close the year pretty well, which suggests to me that we need a pullback of some sort first. Since options expiration is coming, the best time to look for a pullback will be this week, which will allow the options guys to get positioned for the following week. This scenario would also probably complete an a-b-c correction on the S&P. I guess is that it will happen pretty quickly, too. My call is going to be for a flattish start to the week and then a decline into Wednesday and then a sharp reversal. My opinion will change, however, if I don't see pessimism rise quickly on any decline. I'll probably look to buy any pullback, especially if it comes early in the week. Remember, it's still likely that we'll see significant strength before this trend is over.

[The_Technician]

I sort of expected the correction yesterday....but I didn't put a lot of value into it seeing the upward pressure on the market is extreme at the moment...(meaning they are squeezing every drop of juice out of this fruit they can) I figured we would get it but it wouldn't last more than a day or two......I believe Soldat mentioned it last week, so I'm not the only one who saw it coming.....

also

I completed an Elliotwave breakdown on the Wilshire and S&P data for Dec.....it looks like we could experience two possible highs on or about the 14th of Dec or on the 4th of Jan.....I'm looking for anything above 565 on the Wilshire and 1270-1285 on the S&P 500....if those levels are reached I expect a sudden pullback....I haven't processed data on how much of a pull back.....but I can say this if you haven't already figured this out...looks like we could be at an end of the run.....meaning a correction is possible.....seeing how things are going economically, anything could happen....if we continue to get good trends in enabling the economic engine to run then we could run but if we get anything other then expect a correction.....

I'm expecting a sell off in 2006 just for tax purposes.....

:dude:

[FUTURESTRADER]

is wilshire 4500 going to hold triple support of 544???

[The_Technician]

I don't think so and I believe by end of next week we should see a break

:dude: