Transfer 4/28/04 for 4/29/04

[tsptalk]

Like a frightened school girl, I am initiating a transfer this morning, getting out of my 35% S fund position. My new allocation tomorrow will be 60% G, 40% F.

As I have been mentioning, these calm, go nowhere periods tend to precede a major move. Today's weakness and the"Hindenburg Omen" signalis enough for me to go running again.

The theory is that a great deal of uncertainty in the market, characterized by a large number of new highs and new lows at the same time, occurs before major market meltdowns.Make of it what you will.

[Mr. Duke]

Will probably make a move back into the market tonight...Been waiting a couple of weeks....Probably won't take effect until Friday ....Not sure about tomorrow...could be another panic day of sell offs or buying the lower prices...

Then Friday comes....If Thursday is bad maybe folks won't want to be in the market over the weekend...Or maybe after two bad days of sell offs maybe Friday will be a buy day.... coin flip!

pros:

1st days of the month have seemed to be gainers the last couple of months

We have lost enough in C , S, & I to allow room for a 1-2% gain

cons:

Market trends are poor.... S & I have had more down days then up days ...C fund is more positive with 11 up and only 8 down...C (large cap) should do better during rate hikes...Small caps have made a solid run.... maybe 50-50 S & I

[Mr. Duke]

:shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:I'M in 100% I-fund effective Friday:shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:

:shock::shock::shock::shock::shock::shock:

[zarth]

Hey Duke -- No worries -- I'll be riding it out with ya!!:^ I'm a bit more spread out over the funds...but after the beating I've taken recently (especially today),:h figured I'd better just buckle down and hold tight until this one swingsbackthe other way.

[tsptalk]

Be careful out there.

[Frizz B.]

I'm with you Duke, my #'s say it is time to get back to the S fund for me. Will make the change if we are close to even or lower tommorrow morning before the 11 am Central time zone. May go a little lower but the #'s say it will come back with a vengence, I wait it out till I go ahead and then make the move again.

FrizzB.

[Mr. Duke]

I have no access to a computer during the day...So I'm in after hours or before 6 am. Futures are looking down this morning .....Another bad day will hopefully set up a buy for Friday............:^ going for the gusto.....

[CJ]

I think the C and S will drop 1 more percent before rising again.

By compairing these fundpercentages to the steady G fund, Ihave been noticing a down ward trend with C and S (not the I fund), and I see both C& Sat their last low, so I expect 1 more downward percent. The I fund may not go down another percent, but tends to dop some after a bad US market day.

CJ

[Mr. Duke]

CJ you were dead on the money....YeeeHaaaa it is getting pretty sporty out here now....
FrizzB show time tomorrow.............

C fund dropped .93 % today

S fund dropped 1.46% today

I fund dropped .30% today

Hereis the April running tally ....It ain't pretty!


APRIL 2004 F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND

BBF %% 0.69 -1.5 .380.6
MTD% CHANGE -2.73% -0.93% -3.03% -2.16%
MTD$ CHANGE -0.28-0.11 -0.40 -0.29

[Frizz B.]

Yea, hopefully showtime for the S fund. I did move mine to the S fund this morning. Differential was at 298 and by trade time, wow what a drop. Now I will stay in the S until the differential goes back to around 315 and then decide then which fund to roll it to. I am updating my account as I write.

Frizz B.

[tsptalk]

Don't forget, the market loves to humble you when you are feeling the most bullet proof. Feeling a little cocky? Maybeit is time to read market psychology (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum23/150.html)again. ;)

btw, I like the odds of the market going up also. But there is always a chance the sell offcould continue.

[Ecurb]

Tom,

I too moved 100% to S fund effective today. I chart the SPX, I had 1108 as support. It hit 1110 before coming back at close yesterday. Also the Sentiment index you speak of, the short term is 'Excessive Pessimism', and at work one individual was panic ing and was 'getting out before the market tanks!!' So I too agree we must be close.:^

This morning the futures seem to be bouncing, but at an upward direction, at this writing Dow up 10 Nas up 2.5 S&P 1.70.

Ecurb

Love that 'differential theory'

[tsptalk]

We are certainly due for a bounce. The problem is if that support doesn't hold the next stop is 1087. One concern for me is that Greenspan gives us the interest ratesdecision on Tuesday next week and I'm not sure investors want to get too much into the market before he talks.

People who are still stuck in the market may look for rallies as a reprieve to get out.

I may make my move Monday and be in on Tuesday. Maybe a little today. No decision yet. I want to seehow the morning goes.

Tom

[tsptalk]

I just wanted mention this again. I took it from the psychology post...

A couple of things I learned the hard way (and I would bet anyone new to this will have to learn that way) is always be humble. Never brag about gains and don't whine about loses. Once you bring your ego into the mix, you bring yourself another obstacle. Your ego will lose more money for you than any other influence.

[Jack]

Has anybody considered what they will do next week? Will they be in on Tuesday or be in G? I guess if the Fed raises intrest rates the market would go down, but if they stay the same, the market will go up. As a newbie, I am guessing.

Jack

tsptalk wrote:
We are certainly due for a bounce. The problem is if that support doesn't hold the next stop is 1087. One concern for me is that Greenspan gives us the interest rates decision on Tuesday next week and I'm not sure investors want to get too much into the market before he talks.

People who are still stuck in the market may look for rallies as a reprieve to get out.

I may make my move Monday and be in on Tuesday. Maybe a little today. No decision yet. I want to see how the morning goes.

Tom

[tsptalk]

You never can tell Jack. This sell off could be the sell the rumor, buy the news. It will be wild Tuesday but we may be off to the races by late Tuesday, early Wednesday, unless he raises a half point. But I doubt he would do anything to spook the markets any more. Especially in an election year.

[Mr. Duke]

Ouch bad timing for the S (truely not being scarcastic)...This is one bad market for sure.... Feel for ya my friend.. we've all been there...time to ride this puppy out to we can get positive again...:?

[Mr. Duke]

Tom, I love your comments ...absolutely true by the way...about the cocky and feeling bullet proof.... and ego etc... Until investors/traders have taken losses beyond what most people feel are unrealistic achievements at that point emotions no longer becomeplayers. Don't want to simplify what we are all trying to do here, but I look at this as a bit of a challenge/game trying to gain points... And try not to look negatively at what I am saying...I just feel it is like being at at table gambling with you food money...Your decisions will be swayed by fear only and not using all other senses... (That is what you don't want to be doing) I try only to look at percents except when initially getting in or out so I can get an exact determination by calculations of starting and ending funds of what percent was gained/lossed. (Some times you may get in or out of a fund in the middle of the day...It has happened to me. Confidence in decisions should not be confused as cockiness (It is all guess work anyway) ...Additionally I don't consider individuals telling of losses as being whiny...It helps sometimes to get these things off our chest especially when we know we are not alone... Probably also won't come out right...but sometimes tellingof the losses you almost have to be shaking your head and (I want to say laughing inside but that would be overkill) and telling yourself you should have stayed out or done something different...Always second guessing yourself...It is tough for all of us to make that jump/leap of commitment into this mean ass market...

[Frizz B.]

If that cocky was for me, point well taken. I am not trying to be cocky, just pleased, and I do not and I am deffinetly not whining because ofmy loss yesterday. If you are following my differential system, I am quite excited with my move. Yes I lost money on Friday but I am not worried about the market going further down. I traded once when the differential was at 269 and the differential went all the way down to 239, if you worry about this don't use my system. The differential turned around after the low of 239 and went all the way up to 341 before it came back. I hit it at 331. My system is not a day trader, I am hoping to hit the before the market has hit its highs and trade before the market has hits its lows and then wait for the market to turn again. If the #'s change and I can not go above or below the # that I changed at, (exp. my #'s are at low (295 - 300, high 310 to 320), and I hit the high and switch to the G or F and the differential starts staying between 307 and 340, I could not get back to the S. I will take the closest to the 310 change and take my share loss and change my #'s to accomadate the market switch, just as if the market started losing share prices.

FrizzB.

[Mr. Duke]

had to get a cup of coffee....Since its raining here in Florida...I get to bore everyone some more....Now I can really alianate myself.....Case in point about the fear trading I was blabbing about....Now the past market has ripped the knickers off a lot of folks this month....but now after the beating they are leaving the market at the time when the odds (wrong term) metrics/indicators are saying bottom and hopefully reversal... It may only go up for a day followed by another weak of whippings but once again that ishuman nature to sell low and buy high.... Happy to stay in when everything is positive and running when it is dropping...Don'tconfused this with preserving gains.... If I start a month in the negative,,,that money stays for monthsor longer till I can get backeven... If I am up I will try to preserve gains...Told of a article written by an investment firm...Their routine was that once a gain was establish in a stock they wouldset a stop loss at a 25% loss in that case theywould notget bumped in a rocky market, however, if sold they would alwayspocket 75% of their gain...Only works if you start in the green...Blah Blah Blah...

All this trading stuff is exciting Huh!...Hate the weekends no ticker to watch...Blah, Blah Blah....

May god bless everyone's portfolios.....AMEN

[tsptalk]

Mr. Duke wrote:
Confidence in decisions should not be confused as cockiness (It is all guess work anyway) ...Additionally I don't consider individuals telling of losses as being whiny...It helps sometimes to get these things off our chest especially when we know we are not alone...

That "whiny thing" was more in regards to poker. Losing poker players are some of the biggest whiners. :) A quick example, I see good players berate bad players for making a bad play that beat the good player. Rather than just saying "nice hand", they tell the poor guy how terrible he is. The bad player at that point either leaves or tries to start playing better. Neither are good for your poker winnings.

By all means if you have been having a bad run in the market, talk about it here. I loved GTO's poston another thread about how bad he had done the past week or so. He managed to express it with agreat attitude. It's easier to get out of a slumpif you have that attitude.

I'm not ridiculing anyone for being over confident. Just be aware of your own attitude. It has slammed me many times. I've learned to try to be humble. Because if you don't, the market will do it for you. It's just been my experience, particularly with the market and poker as I talked about, but it also works for just about everything in like.

Have you listened to any of the weekend market shows? Boy are these guys negative on the market. I know I should like that, but it's hard to listen to them without getting a little nervous. No over confidence problem here ;)

Tom

[Mr. Duke]

FrizzB, nothing was directed at you, just responding to Tom's comments..

Tom, Not trying to slam you or anyone else...just putting in my two cents worth (no pun intended)...just an opinion.... As I have stated before you have intiated and developedan outstanding web site with andtremendous amount of information sharing...If I have done anything to offend you or anyone else, I apologize.

I will tone it down...just my nature to be aggressive in my decisions

Happy Trading everyone!

[tsptalk]

You're OK Duke. Stimulating a discussion is what this is all about. :^

[puertorico]

if today looking good and tomorrow may not

rise intersrate:D

what it's u opinion or comment for tuesday

May be time to risk:?

[Frizz B.]

No offense taken, I believe in this and I have been trying to get people that I work with to use my differential system. Like most people, they have been skeptical. I have one doctor that uses my system and now he owes me lunch. In the month of April I made him over 400 shares of S Shares. I now have two more providers that are going to use my system. I just tell them when to change and they do. I have a standing offer to the people in my office. If I make them shares in the month, they owe me lunch, if I lose them shares I buy them lunch.

I believe I am a lot like Tom, I like to see others do well and I do believe if they follow my system they have a good chance to do that. Since Jan 15th, I am up a little over 8% for the year.

Thanks Duke for your senserity.
Is the Wilshire 4500 actually down .98. My screen shows all the funds up quite significantly and the S Fund down.

[tsptalk]

Is the Wilshire 4500 actually down .98. My screen shows all the funds up quite significantly and the S Fund down.
No, the quote has not been updated since Friday's close.

[Frizz B.]

Thanks, that is what I thought, had me worried the first couple of times I looked at it and then I realized it did not change.

[Frizz B.]

Looked on the quote board and it is up .73%.

[TRAVELER]

Hello Frizz,

Would like to take a look at your differential system---is it posted somewhere in the message board---sounded interesting to me!!!!!! THANKS KEITH

[Frizz B.]

In Allocations under FrizzB's account talk and FrizzB's Account, any questions please feel free to ask.

[TRAVELER]

TY FRIZZ

[tsptalk]

And as a reminder, please make your comments in the "...Account Talk" topic. We try to keep the actual Account ("Frizz B's Account" in this case) topic free of any other posts but for the account transactions and explanations by the account holder.

Thanks!