TALLY April '05

[FundSurfer]

THANKS PYRIEL for the help getting this together. Pyriel has been putting all the moves into a spreadsheet, and I've been doing the monthly totals. I would not have the time to do this tally if it were not for him.

I started keeping track of a few people I know are faithfully posting there moves. I like to see how people are doing. You should not use just this post to judge how people are doing totally befacuse we don't have a long track record yet. As an example, someone could do very wellin October buthave had a very bad July/August.

Apr MarFeb Total 2005 Total
Systemtrader 0.47%-0.01% 2.14% 2.61%1.52%Highest last Quarter
G-fund0.37%0.37%0.37% 1.12%1.49%
F-fund1.35%-0.48%-0.57%0.30%0.87% Highest April
G-man0.37%0.37%1.17%1.92%0.85%
Show-me -1.67%-0.73%4.41%2.01%-1.19%
20% Each-1.23%-1.24% 1.65%-0.82%-2.17%
I-fund-2.27%-2.52% 4.34%-0.44%-2.32%
DrD-0.95%-1.89% 2.97% 0.14% -2.35%
MilkMan -2.62%-0.79% 3.37%-0.05% -2.40%
Safetyguy -2.48% 0.37% 2.64% 0.54% -2.97%
Rolo -2.17%-2.32% 3.67%-0.82% -3.46% 8-ball still playing?
C-fund -1.90%-1.71% 2.06%-1.55% -3.95%
Rod -4.61%-1.07% 3.10%-2.57% -4.78%
Neirbod -2.27%-1.78% 2.53%-1.51% -4.99%
Mike -2.52%-1.37% 1.75%-2.14% -5.13%
coolhand -1.92%-0.27% 1.14%-1.05% -5.30%
TSPTalk -3.44%-0.30% 1.33%-2.41% -5.44%
S-fund -3.72%-1.86% 2.04%-3.54% -6.94%
Pyriel -6.06%-0.94% 3.12%-3.87% -7.15%
Namor -3.14% 2.78%-2.83%-3.19% * Couldn't post partJanuary
TSPgo -2.49%-0.81% 0.26%-3.03% #N/ANeed position on 12/31 in order to calculate yourannual total.
Tekno -2.40% 0.66%1.17%-0.57% #N/A
Citizen-2.91% 0.79% 1.01%-1.11% #N/A
Skip -3.56%0.28% 1.24%-2.03% #N/A
cowboy -1.10%-0.54% 1.33%-0.31% #N/A
gritz -2.43% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Nnuut -3.40%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
TennisGuy -1.88% #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A


I got these numbers using the post from each account talk list (2 exceptions - Milk-man was e-mailing me his moves during a 'vacation' and tspgo has a website where he posts his moves). If you are a regular poster but I missed you it was because I either felt you were not posting regularly, posting moves too late after deadline, thought you had quit or you were not posting in the right place. To make this tally you must have been posting in an account prior to 3/31/05. Looks like we'll have several new members added to the list next month.

Since there are so many people posting, I'm not going to add you up if your post are too confusing or it looks like you missed some post (ie. you refer to a move that you made 3 days ago but did not post in your account). I'll catch you next month when you get it straight.

You'll notice a couple new changes. I added a total for 2005 column, added each of the funds as well as the 20% each fund,and have ranked the participants based on annual total so far. I included the funds in the ranking (would you rather I left them separate?)

Extras:

Spaf: When you going to start an account? You post your moves all but just not in a single account thread.

Rolo, is the magic 8-ball still posting it's moves?

Rajun Cajun and I (fundsurfer) have had trouble getting moves in by the deadline. Our records were not included.

TSPgo, I need your position on 12/31 to do your total for 2005.

If I missed you and you weren't included, PM me and I'll add you to the list or let you know where you confused me. There are so many new faces that it would be easy for someone to fall through the cracks.

[grandma]

Thank you FundSurfer for the Tally!:! And thank you, Pyriel, for the weekly Trackers!!

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/angel14.jpgIt might be helpful to have the Funds listed together at the head of the list.:)

[Spaf]

FundSurfer wrote: Extras:

Spaf: When you going to start an account? You post your moves all but just not in a single account thread.


FundSurfer...I never figured I'd be here that long. Wanted to retire last year, didn't work out. Maybe 2006. Ya see, I shouldn't be messing around with TSP.
Didn't want to mislead anyone. I should be sitting in the G-fund :x:zz. However, it's too much fun :u.

I can put it in a single account thread.

Does Tom need to start it?

COB today I'll be 40G, 50C and 10S

[FundSurfer]

Thank you Spaf. I've meant on several occasions to try and track down all your moves but never have taken the time. If you are that near retirement, I'd bet that you are civil service not FERS and thus your TSP represents a small part of your retirement and thus you are not risking as much money that close to retirement. Based on how well you seem to track the market, I'd bet you are doing fairly well versus the G fund. I like the parabolic indicators like you use. I screw up when I try to anticipate the curve. I've back calculated using the parabolic indicators for C-fund and you do beat the c-fund on a consistant basis.

[Spaf]

FundSurfer wrote: If you are that near retirement, I'd bet that you are civil service not FERS
No! I'm FERS :cool:. I was under civil service when I started. But didn't have enough time in at that point. It was manditory to convert to FERS:@.

The problem with FERS is everyone assumed the market would keep going up back when it started in the 80's. No one educated participants on the in's and out's of the market, especially how to handle bearish conditions :x.

IMHO FERS is dangerous to uninformed participants :':#!

Rgds! ;) Spaf

[tennisguy]

I guess I am an offical member now.(so many people I would like to thank) :^ I have my tally posted now on the members list. To bad it was a RED month -1.88% :( man i need to get better. Well May is another month. I hope we all start seeing green soon.

Tennisguy

[FundSurfer]

Correction: Had a wrong entry for show-me in March. Update #'s

Show-me -1.67% -3.10% 4.41% -0.35% -3.55%

[Shaggy]

Can I ask, when you all do a spread sheet do you round off. After I do an allocation change the %'s begin to change based on the up and down of the market. So instead of 50%-C I end up with 49.96%- C. I just posted, for the first time,my move today COB 3/3/05. If I post on time every change does somebody keep a master spreadsheet to come up with these %'s. I know it's nobodys job but I'm sure they would be more accurate them me. Just curious.

[Mike]

Cruddy performance thus far, but at least I'm beating Tom. :l

[FundSurfer]

Shaggy, the only changes we track are the percent gain/loss not the actual value of the account. Your percentage in each fund changes slightly because your percentages are linked to dollars in your account. As your amount in I-fund, for example, outpaces your performance in C-fund, since you are limited to 100%, the ratio of percentages changes slightly. It is acutally more complicated than that because you can also have deposits into your account which will shift your percentages as well.

The percentage gain we calculate is a gain/loss based upon your fund allocations. If you had x dollars in your account and the monthly gain was 1.5%, then your total account balance should have gone up by 1.5% plus any additional inputs from payroll plus interest on that addition. To track this amount could be done but it doesn't tell you anything more than you could get by checking your account balance.

I use the Tally to see how I'm doing compared to the different funds. The Tally also tells me who amongst our posters is doing a good job managing their money. Those that are doing well, I pay attention to their methods so that I may be able to learn something that will help me do a better job. Some people on this board also track the same trades as some of our posters and thus it is good to see how they are doing.

Bottom line: your TSP account balance will have the right amount in it.

[Shaggy]

OK, I guess I didn't word the question very well. I understood that the balances were right and why the % change, I'm just not sure I am using the spreadsheet right. Can you look at it and advise if it looks right to you. The last entry will not be completed until I know the share prices tomarrow.

I think I attached this right but am not sure.

[pyriel]

FundSurfer wrote: Correction: Had a wrong entry for show-me in March. Update #'s

Show-me -1.67% -3.10% 4.41% -0.35% -3.55%
Fund,

Which line entry is wrong for Show me?

[tspgo_com]

Dear Participant:

Your interfund transfer request has been processed. The details are provided below.

I. Information About Your Request




Name: XXXXXXXXX XXXXX
Social Security Number: ***-**-XXXX
Method of Request: Web

Date of Request: 12/28/2004
Time of Request: 11:54:04 Eastern
Effective Date: 12/28/2004


Investment Percentages You Requested:





G Fund: 65%

F Fund: 5%

C Fund: 15%

S Fund: 15%

I Fund: 0%

[tspgo_com]

Thank you for keeping track of things. What follows is a copy and paste from my last ITF in 2004.(12/28/ 2004). The x's next to name and the last four are mine.

Thanks again.

TSPGO!

=========================================

Dear Participant:

Your interfund transfer request has been processed. The details are provided below.

I. Information About Your Request




Name: xxxxxxxxx xxxxx
Social Security Number: ***-**-xxxx
Method of Request: Web

Date of Request: 12/28/2004
Time of Request: 11:54:04 Eastern
Effective Date: 12/28/2004


Investment Percentages You Requested:





G Fund: 65%

F Fund: 5%

C Fund: 15%

S Fund: 15%

I Fund: 0%

[FundSurfer]

Pyriel, show-me's worksheet shows him going to 100% G in the middle of March (3/18??). He actually went to I fund not G fund. If you can't figure out the date, PM me and I'll look it up. I don't have my spreadsheet with me right now and I'll be away from my computer that has the spreadsheet for the next couple days.

[Rod]

Thanx again!:^

Actually, my YTD total is (-3.61%)

God Bless:cool:

[pyriel]

FundSurfer wrote: Pyriel, show-me's worksheet shows him going to 100% G in the middle of March (3/18??). He actually went to I fund not G fund. If you can't figure out the date, PM me and I'll look it up. I don't have my spreadsheet with me right now and I'll be away from my computer that has the spreadsheet for the next couple days.I redid Showme's tracker starting from 12/31 and I came up with -2.41% balance as of 3 May 05. I missed one day of input. Now, its Rod's turn...

[mlk_man]

Hey guys, I have me being up 12% for the year?

Just kidding!!! :P

[smine]

Yeah, the I fund did that for you!!!:P

[mlk_man]

smine wrote: Yeah, the I fund did that for you!!!:P
Why you little.....I outta............;)

Guess where I'm moving to today dear? :shock:

[Rod]

smine wrote: Yeah, the I fund did that for you!!!:P
Yeah, as for me, it figures that when I get out of (I) because I'm too busy to watch what's going on, it begins to post gains.:P

Oh well... it'll fall more before we see a REAL rally across the markets. Then I'll simply buy in low- wishful thinking...;)

Here's my tracking to help you, Pyriel:

God Bless:^

[pyriel]

Thanks Rod...

Milky,you didn't go 100i yesterday. Must have been bad experience. hehehe

[pyriel]

Rod,

I fixed your tracker... I misread your move on 3/23/05. You did it at night so move didn't really happen til 1/24/05. Thanks for pointing that out...

Pyriel

[Dave M]

I can't find the post where Tom said, "...percent is everything..." referring to the percent gained or lost in our accounts. I wish respectfully to disagree. Is this a contest? No. We're here to help one another achieve our TSP goals. Maximizing returnis one goal, a good one but only one, and one which requires accepting the maximum risk. There are other goals.

In my case, I have a specific dollar-figure I wish to achieve by November 2010, a number I feel will be adequate to my needs. I have maximised my contributions -- $20k this year including the match -- in order to be able to minimizethe risk I must face by exposure tothe market. Multiplying by the number of years remaining, I can calculate the average return I need to get where I want to be. So my goal is not necessarily to do the best I can but to do well enough to stay on the beam. See what I mean? Agree? Disagree?

Dave

[Rod]

pyriel wrote: Rod,

I fixed your tracker... I misread your move on 3/23/05. You did it at night so move didn't really happen til 1/24/05. Thanks for pointing that out...

Pyriel

Thanx! Keep in mind, I do the majority of my moves at night since I work graves.

Well, after today I'm now at -3.09%;) It'll be nice to get back into positive territory again!:P

:D

[pyriel]

Dave M wrote: I can't find the post where Tom said, "...percent is everything..." referring to the percent gained or lost in our accounts. I wish respectfully to disagree. Is this a contest? No. We're here to help one another achieve our TSP goals. Maximizing returnis one goal, a good one but only one, and one which requires accepting the maximum risk. There are other goals.

In my case, I have a specific dollar-figure I wish to achieve by November 2010, a number I feel will be adequate to my needs. I have maximised my contributions -- $20k this year including the match -- in order to be able to minimizethe risk I must face by exposure tothe market. Multiplying by the number of years remaining, I can calculate the average return I need to get where I want to be. So my goal is not necessarily to do the best I can but to do well enough to stay on the beam. See what I mean? Agree? Disagree?

Dave

Dave,

This is not a contest at all. However, posters do have a right to point out our mistakes (Fundsurfer and I) which we do quite often :(. I do provideeveryone's trackers on a weekly basis for those who request for them. The idea is to learn from others and see how they are doing and how are they making their moves. Some of us, especially those who are just starting out, would like to validate their moves from those who have alot of experience. Having to see everyone's trackers in excel helps tremendously. Although, one can read from all the posts, it is quite easier to see where people had been and where they are going. For me, I now know who are the jumpers, the system traders, the long term holders, the retirees, and the newbies. By watching their moves, I can ascertain which way of the herd are going and along with additional reading, come up with a best guesstimate of where I will make my next move. Right now, I am following the jumpers.:^

[pyriel]

Rod wrote:
Thanx! Keep in mind, I do the majority of my moves at night since I work graves.

Well, after today I'm now at -3.09%;) It'll be nice to get back into positive territory again!:P

:D


Rod, Got it... We are in synched again...

[Dave M]

Thanks, P -- I knew it wasn't a contest but I wanted to say so out loud just to remind ourselves. You're quite right, we need to know what worked and what didn't. And we need to follow up. Some things work under some market conditions, others work in other conditions.

If we had enough data we could derive anequation which described the results, and construct a risk-return diagram.Whole families of curveswould exist, predicting final dollar value of the account given a start and end date, starting value and the degree ofrisk to be tolerated. Now that would be doing all federal employees a real service. (Risk could be described probabilistically: "Do this and you have a 20% chance of a 15% gain anda 40% chance of a 5% loss.")

Are there any professionals on the board, familiar with the literature? How does our table compare with expected values given recentknown market numbers?

Dave

[pyriel]

Dave M wrote: If we had enough data we could derive anequation which described the results, and construct a risk-return diagram.Whole families of curveswould exist, predicting final dollar value of the account given a start and end date, starting value and the degree ofrisk to be tolerated. Now that would be doing all federal employees a real service. (Risk could be described probabilistically: "Do this and you have a 20% chance of a 15% gain anda 40% chance of a 5% loss.")
Are there any professionals on the board, familiar with the literature? How does our table compare with expected values given recentknown market numbers?
Ahhh..... Did you just talk to me in English? If you did, how come I can't understand them? Oh I got.. It must be my 2nd grade level brain:?... But to be serious, i think you are onto something here? Anyone wants to take a bat at it?

[mlk_man]

pyriel wrote: Thanks Rod...

Milky,you didn't go 100i yesterday. Must have been bad experience. hehehe
No, but I am today and I see lots of green internationally and the dollar was slightly down. Of course with my luck, the I fund will lose .10 today....................:shock:

[retgi]

That's interesting. I'm pretty new here, been watching and learning as well as making a few moves now and then but not posting them. I'm very undeciseive when it comes to moving my money around. I'm three years from retirement and very hesitant to make too many bold moves. From your recent tally it appears as if one had just stayed in the "G" fund for this period, they would have done as well as the best performer and much better than most.
Pete

[tsptalk]

retgi wrote: From your recent tally it appears as if one had just stayed in the "G" fund for this period, they would have done as well as the best performer and much better than most.
Pete
Welcome Pete!-
You have to look ahead. What did well yesterday, last week, last month or last year is not always best for tomorrow.

Good luck and thanks for joining us!
Tom

[Birchtree]

Retgi,

The markets function in cycles-just like life-some of these cycles are short term and others are intermediate, and still others are longer term. There will always be some asset in a sector that outperforms. The C fund is and has been undervalued and in my humble opinion really has not had its' day in the sun from a longer term perspective. When the sun begins to shine like it has for the last number of trading days it is totally appropriate to put on some sun block and get as much of it as you can. If this cycle is a further continuation of a new bull market that began in 10/02 the good times will out last your retirement date. I plan to continue investing even while in retirement-why not usethe valuable time to ones advantage. Now you have cash, and cash is king, use it to make more-load up.