C-fund

[stebbins777]

Many sources have told me that the best way to manage your tsp account if you have 20 or more years of federal service to go is to dump everything in the C fund, 100 % allocation as well as full balance of interfund. And.....to leave it alone no matter what until your last couple of years before retirement. Is this crazy? Help, I don't know where to put my money in the tsp???

[tsptalk]

Welcome stebbins777! I'm surprised this post has been out there for over 2 hours without a response because we all think we know what we're doing when it comes to allocation. This site is almost entirely about that subject so if you hunt around (use the search feature up top) you will find many theories.

The truth is staying invested (in C fund or other stock funds) for the long term may be the best idea for some. Diversifying a little into bonds may ease some pain during down turns. What we do here is try to do better than the market. It is very tough on a day to day or week to week basis but I think recognizing major trends, up or down, and adjusting your account accordingly can give you better results. You won't beat the market (S&P 500) every year, but overall I believe it can be done, mainly by sidestepping long bear market periods.

Again it is difficult and may not be worth your time to try. But the work can be rewarding if you look at your returns 5, 10 or more years from now.

Thanks for joining us!
Tom

[stebbins777]

Thanks tom. I check my balance often and last month it was 27k and change. Last week I checked it and it was 26K and change. Don't like it when that number goes down. Then I checked the rates of return and the c-fund was down a little. Don't like to see those numbers in parenthesis either. But when the S&P is a positive, I win. Your right, It's the long term trend I should follow.

What about interfund transfer, what's your opionin on where our balance should be and how is that balance affected? Easy on the tech-talk.

Thanks again,

Dave

[Birchtree]

stebbins 777- This is only one opinion, but I would like to offer it. I have been in the market as an investor since-would you believe 1973. Seen it all-done most of it.

Unfortunately you really don't, at this point, have enough to make any difference in the trading arena. A lot of work and time necessary to just generate meager gains or none at all. Tom has offered you some good sensible advice. No one likes to loose money, but sometimes it goes with the game.

However you should be able to hold the C fund up through sp500 of at least 1600 on the index. This could possibly take several years. I will tell you why the C fund is prepared to outperform the other funds that are available to you.

Perhaps you have heard of technology mutual funds? At one time period in investing they were all the rage and many fools (forgive the term) fell for the hype before the bubble broke-and many most likely will never return to the markets. Who and what to trust.

[Birchtree]

stebbins 777-part 2. Back in1997 if you had invested in an average technology fund with 10K by the year 2000 you would have made 50K, this sounds good but it was a fool's game. The companies in the nasdaq index had no earnings just lots of press hype. The moral of the story is don't follow the Hurd unless you are attached to the 173 rd Airborn Division. Inside joke.

The technology stocks (nasdaq) started breaking down early in year 2000, this happened several times-corrections-, each time it was regarded as a correction. almost like what is now happening to the C fund-only the circumstances are different. Each time the index or mutual funds corrected the folks continued buying and a recovery ensued. This happened for 3 different times-each time buying came to the rescue. As the sun was now shining on a succesful pattern along comes correction number 4, here come the buyers, only this time the index went into a steep waterfall decline and all the folks were trapped. Money was really lost and heads rolled. That 50K was now worth less than 10K. The index went from a high of 5048 to a low of around 1000 and under in year 2002. In 2003-2004 the index staged a 50% increase back to 200 on the index. This year it is leading to the downside in our current correction. Come back in year 2010.

[Birchtree]

stebbins 777-part 3. Shall I continue on to the sp500-it makes for a heartening story and I promise there is a point to be made. The sp500 acted during this time frame as though it was hardly alive. Just the game for me-I'm a contrarian-and don;t follow the hype. Saved my skinny during those years. And now you have what I think will be a golden opportuniy to invest you money and actually have exceptionally good odds at making some real money.

The 10K invested in the sp500 in 1998 went to 15.5K by the peak in 2000 of 1527.46. Doesn't seem like much but here comes the good part as a long term investor. There was actually minimal pain delivered during that cycle-it was just fine as a strategy to ride it out. If a tsp participant had been buying the C fund during this time period every payday on a dollar cost averaging basis they would be more than prepared for the next big leg upward, which I happen to think is presently on the way. In 2002 the money was back to 10K and the sp500 bottomed slightly under 800. Today it is around 1180. The solid dollar cost averaging investor would have plenty of units now and would be ready to participate and continue to participate over the distance making green all the way. Keep the money coming and you will learn more about risk taking and investing. The sp500 is the place to be

[Birchtree]

stebbins 777-part 4. Almost done. The sp500 has real earnings from well established stocks as well as increasing dividends that continue to grow. The longer the sp500-C fund- takes to reach new highs the better off you are-you have a long time to build your asset base and increase your number of units. A good safe plan would be to allocate all recent funds to C fund and then divide your payroll contributions going forward 75% C fund and 25% I fund. Then sit back and hope the sp500 doesn't go up too fast.

The I fund is another whole new story taking into account the German Xetra DAX and the Japan Nikkei 225 along with the DJ STOXX index of 600 European companies. Don't stress about the American dollar, just accumulate the units. I'm trying to draw out some of the I fund people who are having a hard time seeing the forest because of all the trees-step back some guys. Dennis

[stebbins777]

First, let me apologize for getting back so late to your response. Thanks for the help. I think I will stick with my 100% c-fund allocation and 100% interfund. Because my balance went up about 4k in 2-3 months. How? don't ask me, I don't know how the economy works? That's why I get lots of advice from intelligent investors and then compile the average of it, and go with it. And since I joined the govt., everything has led to the C-fund and leave it there until a couple years until I retire and then lump it in the G. Something like that. Thanks again, Dave

[GALLO1]

stebbins777, I hope you don't mind my tagging on to your thread. But I wanted to ask BT a couple of other (probably dumb) questions about being 100% into the C-fund.

BT, The 4-parts that you posted above seem pretty much straight forward, but I have a few questions running around in my head, so I just have to ask.

-Isn't getting into theS&P in the 1200 range a little on the high side?

-If we're in 100% "C" is there a certain number to pull out or do we ride it all of the way to the very bottom? I assume the number of shares picked up is the reward for riding it down.

-Let's say that the ride to the bottom occurs about 2010-2015, and the plan was to retire 2015-2020, if the bottom has not come back up to where the buy in was, I'm guessing that retirement might need to be postponed to a later date?

I just want to be as ready as possible to ride this bull and to be ready to take the lumps if the high risks clobber me somewhere down the road.

Anyone else that might have some light to shed on the subject please jump in.

Thanks, Stebbins777 and BT,

:DSteve

[GALLO1]

Dave,

I just realized I hadsent a response to your loan question. No big deal. I just feel awkard since I've never participated in any kind of a chat room before, which I think that is what this is. It's been a great source of information from all of the members and even some of the feuding thatoccursadds some humor to the forum.

Steve

[stebbins777]

First of all, when I don't know a whole lot aboutsomething, I ask people who do. So when I joined the tsp in 1999, the advice I got was to start with everything in theC-fund and ignore it untill you retire. As the years went on, I continued to ask people, in fact, I actually took someone's advice and moved my money around a little. But a little bit here and a little bit there does not maximize your return, I don't think. So what did I do, I continued to ask people again, and I received the same response from many diverse people who knew more about the market than me? C-fund and ignore untill you retire. But,,,,,,,who expected 9/11/01????? When the c-fund hit rock bottom? right after 9/11/01, I dumped all into the f-fund for a couple of years untill the C-fund started to come back. Then back in the C-fund. Now, I am at 100% C-fund, allocation and interfund. But I am considering putting a little into the S.

God Bless,

[rokid]

Stebbins777,

If you want to go with an all domestic, passivestockallocation, you might want to consider 79% C Fund and 21% S Fund. That reflects the total domestic stock capitalization, i.e. large caps, mid-caps, and small caps. In addition, historically, small/mid-caps have outperformed large caps.Therefore, over the long term, including the S Fund shouldincrease your returns without increasing your risk.

[Birchtree]

stebbins777,

The objective now should be to ride the bull for as long as you can. Remain cognizant that the good times will eventually end - like in 2000 - 2001-2002. Move the bulk of your funds to shelter and continue with the dollar cost averaging using fate to provide guidance. Buy going down and buy coming back - sounds simple enough but placing the bulk cash is the difficult part. No one knows how long this current move will last - always be on guard. But it may conceivabley last for several years with only minor interruptions. I have my own strategy in place and will start getting out many months and points down the road - one needs an escape hatch.

The bigger question is - are we in the later stages of a cyclical bull move that will end in the fall, or are we at the start of a new secular bull market that will last for years? I'm inclined toward the secular move - but am pretty much alone at this point. I think Teknobucks may be leaning in the secular direction with support from historical TA.

[Birchtree]

Gallo1,

I'll try and answer some of your questions. The sp500 is just now putting in several 4 year highs - these are not new all-time highs. We are at 1229 on the index, the peak was in 2000 at 1527. The small cap R2K is putting in 7 year all-time new highs. The SPX is now regarded as the new value play because it is undervalued and has been the underperformer since who can remember? The $13.22 price is cheap in comparison to the S fund and the I fund. Over the next 6 - 12 months the C fund may very well outperform the others.That's why I've chosen to own it.

If you have a multi-thousands of share position like some of us salty dogs, it is always prudent to eventually seek shelter from any large storms in the future - such as the next recession. Small positions give you flexibility to absorb minor losses and keep on dollar cost averaging. I would ride the bottom all day long with dollar cost averaging - buying on the lows - there is nothing more satisfying than causing one self pain buying at low prices. My current objective will be to lighten my load on a consistent basis if the sp500 comes anywhere close to 1700 on the index. Can you visualize how difficult this process will be - giving up profit on the way up. It does require discipline to sacrifice greed. I hope at some point in your future you get the opportunity to feel the greed factor - greed is good - but only to a certain extent.

If you are so darn unlucky to hit a down patch before you retire- and it can easily happen to anyone - be prepared to not take money out at that time. Use time to your advantage - wait until the upside returns - remember you are in control of your destiny. We will all be looking over our shoulders for the next significant downside. I'm still on the come back trail from my oceanic account which took a 900 point hit. The downsides will come in many forms, some as head fakes, some will blind side you, and frankly some will try to clean you out. Some corrections will be welcome for better pricing- folks are waiting for one now to get in - they may have missed the train and will have to pay up to play. Other downsides will require courage to hold the line and take the pain. TSP gives you the advantage of moving 100% without consequent taxes, if you end up being premature just come back at a later time. Let the fun times begin - this really should be fun even though it's a serious matter.

Dennis

[yakers]

Just my 2 cents worth to the original poster. If you want to just throw your money in the TSP and not look at it I would suggest an L Fund rather than all C. Since you are asking here and have some interest I would suggest you decide what asset alloaction you like and going with that. At your age I might do something like 70% C, 10% S, I & G. You will have less volitility and get some returns from different asset classes. I currently don't like the F fund as I expect it to drop as interest rates go up but I have been saying that for some time now and it has done better than I expected but not good enough for me to love it.
Now I really appreciate the folks trying to day trade the TSP (Two Day Trade?) and beat the market. They are open in their methodology and general lack of significant success. But it is in an interesting experiment.

[stebbins777]

Thanks for the reply, You were close. I actually did 79% C and 21% S and my balance is going up, up, up rather quickly. Someone else made this suggestion and it made good sense. Then I asked around my workplace and a fewothers had the same idea, so it must be worth something. It's working for me. I don't like the L funds, but they are great for someone who's not realy into the TSP and just wants to ignore it. For me, the TSPis my cabin on the lake. God bless.

[FundSurfer]

1112

1113

[fedgolfer]

Can the S&P fill the breakout gap and head to the upper channel line ... ~1.30% more from yesterday's close at $14.71. I think euphoria is still spreading and has enough steam through early October... even to carry a little past any end of qtr window dressing... unless it reaches that today and tomorrow. The shorter term rising wedge was broken giving way to the stronger longer-term pattern. I'm starting to think it will go $14.90'ish in the next week. I tried to attach a chart but it exceeded the capacity.

[The_Technician]

Can the S&P fill the breakout gap and head to the upper channel line ... ~1.30% more from yesterday's close at $14.71. I think euphoria is still spreading and has enough steam through early October... even to carry a little past any end of qtr window dressing... unless it reaches that today and tomorrow. The shorter term rising wedge was broken giving way to the stronger longer-term pattern. I'm starting to think it will go $14.90'ish in the next week. I tried to attach a chart but it exceeded the capacity.

She extended out and I don't believe she will make it....look for today as its final hurrah for a bit....

[FundSurfer]

As requested by robo555 and sponsor...
1120

[James48843]

I feel its running out of steam. Will fall-

If not tomorow, then within a day or two. I think we're at a peak.

Just my humble opinion.

[tsptalk]

With all the hype of new highs, the only fund up today was the C fund by a modest .03. The fact that the S fund fell confirms we are seeing some internal weakness in the market. But there's no telling how long the big cap indices will rally in spite of internal weakness.

[FundSurfer]

I feel its running out of steam. Will fall-

If not tomorow, then within a day or two. I think we're at a peak.

Just my humble opinion.

I agree James. I think the S&P will bring the rest of the market with it. So even though S & I look enticing I'm on the sideline. Tom's right, we could see euphoria for a few more days/even weeks.

[airlift]

Another negative divergence --, in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), down volume was greater than up on Tuesday, which is a sign of distribution near the end of an advance. --

[James48843]

Another negative divergence --, in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), down volume was greater than up on Tuesday, which is a sign of distribution near the end of an advance. --

Thanks for that observation. I hadn't noticed, but you're right on target.

Another indicator- an arrow towards the quiver of pullback.

O.K. Mr. Dow Jones, I'm ready for you to drop like a rock, and give me an opportunity to jump back in. (He says, wringing his hands, wondering if he missed the boat again and is stuck in the mud whilst the rest of things head north....)

I'm patiently waiting here on the sidelines with 85% of my money, just perfectly positions to take advantage when you plunge and give me a new buying opportunity!

[airlift]

Many money managers and traders use Wal-Mart as a benchmark of the consumer and the economy. Today the numbers were negative, and the futures are negative. --


Thanks for that observation. I hadn't noticed, but you're right on target.

Another indicator- an arrow towards the quiver of pullback.

O.K. Mr. Dow Jones, I'm ready for you to drop like a rock, and give me an opportunity to jump back in. (He says, wringing his hands, wondering if he missed the boat again and is stuck in the mud whilst the rest of things head north....)

I'm patiently waiting here on the sidelines with 85% of my money, just perfectly positions to take advantage when you plunge and give me a new buying opportunity!

[fedgolfer]

Another negative divergence --, in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), down volume was greater than up on Tuesday, which is a sign of distribution near the end of an advance. --

Or the sign of institutional investors selling and the Joe 6-packs buying. Which leaves a small portion of me still on the fence... Katie Couric (sp?) led off the news with a story on the Dow... euphoira can still carry this thing a little higher, no?

[Birchtree]

When you all figure it out, let me know. That will probably be the time to get off the ride - I'm staying until the C fund hits $17.00. Time Has Come by the Chambers Brothers.

[SkiUtah]

Birchtree - what is the expected time frame of the C fund $17?

[Birchtree]

Erichschuette,

How should I know, I don't have a clue. If you follow a 4-year cycle pattern it could be sometime in 2008. A $17.00 price is my way of corresponding to the S&P 500 of 1700. Do you know anybody that has a crystal ball for sale?

[airlift]

Good observation. It could well be. However, oil inventories were supposed to drop, and came out with much higher numbers than expected; but very reliable analysts in Bloomber TV indicate that this is sort of like levitation with the aid of rising fumes. I am staying put in F as a safety measure, and perhaps should consider going to G (which is almost cash). Although I have indicated my desire to continue testing a mechanical system I am ready to abandon the idea anytime circumstances convince me that it is wise to do so! If you are a buy-and-holder with a long term horizon, you should not be concerned as much. --



Or the sign of institutional investors selling and the Joe 6-packs buying. Which leaves a small portion of me still on the fence... Katie Couric (sp?) led off the news with a story on the Dow... euphoira can still carry this thing a little higher, no?

[SkiUtah]

Cramer at the thestreet.com has/uses one, he may sell...

[Show-me]

I fund daily (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04976837362)

C fund daily (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21614190850)

C fund weekly (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61024830540)

I post this here because my main fund is the I fund but I use the C fund as my baseline. C fund is looking like it is getting to the top of the channel so I am cautious short term. Still looks phenomenal long term. Check out the daily and weekly C fund charts. See the trend? Weekly bounces of off the 50 dma and daily bounces of off the 200 dma. To me this is a very nice trend to keep playing. Everyone feel free to poke holes in my ideas. I need the help. LOL

To me the I fund has room to grow and play catch up. If the dollar does weaken I need to be careful that it doesn't weaken to fast or US equities decline at the same time. I believe OSM will react badly to a weakening dollar but will panic if the dollar weakens and US equities decline also.

I am really glad to see more of the "lurkers" posting. Get in here and mix it up you guys. Register and join the fun even if it's just to say hello.

Good luck and Friday is the Labor Report.:blink: :D

[Birchtree]

Showme,

You are following the American New Perspective mutual fund which is a combination fund of domestic large-caps and international large-caps. The symbol is ANWPX. It's been working really well to allow someone to hedge their bets and when in sync it's explosive.

[Show-me]

Birch,

You've confused me. Could you elaborate a little bit. The symbols I use are for the S&P and EFA.

Showme,

You are following the American New Perspective mutual fund which is a combination fund of domestic large-caps and international large-caps. The symbol is ANWPX. It's been working really well to allow someone to hedge their bets and when in sync it's explosive.

[Birchtree]

What I meant was this fund combines your investing style - an all in one. Both USA and Europe along with ASIA. It's a sweet deal.

[Show-me]

Loud and clear, thanks!

What I meant was this fund combines your investing style - an all in one. Both USA and Europe along with ASIA. It's a sweet deal.

[Birchtree]

Show-me,

I'm sorry I actually got you confused with the Nnuut. He's the one working both sides of the pond by hedging.

[nnuut]

Doesn't look like the Wallflower is being kind to me today? Maybe I should be in the Snake fund instead. Maybe I should give her a little time? :confused: Sorry Birch!:worried:

[Birchtree]

Nnuut,

It's not even 1015 yet - it's going to be a very long day with alot of cross currents. There is a tremendous amount of short covering going on in the S fund small caps. The hedges may be starting to build their short positions now in large-caps - they never learn.

[Robo5555]

MSNBC interview with some fund managers.....predicted 1500 by the end of the year for the S & P....wow!!!!

[Robo5555]

Yesterday was another good day for the C fund. Outperformed the other funds.

[Birchtree]

The outsized influence of the tech sector in 2000 greatly distorted the capitalization weighted indices. There are 10 sectors in the S&P 500 Index: technology, financials, healthcare, utilities, industrials, energy, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and materials and telecom. If we excluded the tech sector, the S&P 500 would be 16% above its level reached in 2000. Seven of the 10 other sectors (excluding tech, telecom and consumer discretionary) are significantly higher than their 2000 levels. Even within the S&P 500, more than two-thirds of stocks are above the price they reached in 2000, but the big cap tech stocks had so much weight then that their collapse forced the whole index lower now. Will history repeat to some degree? Tech may be the next surprise.

[mayday]

The outsized influence of the tech sector in 2000 greatly distorted the capitalization weighted indices. There are 10 sectors in the S&P 500 Index: technology, financials, healthcare, utilities, industrials, energy, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and materials and telecom. If we excluded the tech sector, the S&P 500 would be 16% above its level reached in 2000. Seven of the 10 other sectors (excluding tech, telecom and consumer discretionary) are significantly higher than their 2000 levels. Even within the S&P 500, more than two-thirds of stocks are above the price they reached in 2000, but the big cap tech stocks had so much weight then that their collapse forced the whole index lower now. Will history repeat to some degree? Tech may be the next surprise.

I was just reading insider trading showing the purchases and sales of insiders at selected companies. There's some BIG selling going on with these CEO's taking profits, and backing out of the market.

[Birchtree]

On CNBC today it was stated that historically the S&P 500 gains 23% in the year after a midterm election. Let's see; 1390 x .23 = 319 which provides a value of 1709. That's my target. Does that mean I have to get out next year or can I revise my target higher. We'll wait and see.

[fedgolfer]

if the cfund closes where it is now it will close on the support line that can be traced all the way back to late July. if the chart pattern holds, today will prove a good buying op. Other days that sit on this support level are 8/14, 9/8, 9/22 and 11/3. If this doesn't hold, lookout below. S fund will also sit at support level... anyone gonna buy?

[ChemEng]

Im holding out on this one. The trend should show which direction its moving shortly though... I agree though, itll either be breakout or breakdown.

[James48843]

On the downside, I'll call this:

Light resistance at 1360

Harder resistance at 1308

Floor underneath at 1270.

All three are possible in the next week.

[fedgolfer]

If C fund closes up ~.50% at approx $15.65 it will be at the very top of the resistance line that extends back to 10/26 and 11/22 (those two dates being perfect times to sell). If the VIX gets close to 10, this short upward wave won't have much more push. Following the trends and charts until they break down... good luck to all, happy holidays!!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart3:symbol=^vix;range=3m;indicator=sma(8 20)+bollinger+psar+wpr(15);charttype=candlestick;c rosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

[Birchtree]

We could easily get a tho over. (throw)

[Propstrike]

A solid break thru 1415 S&P could mean up-up and away.

[Birchtree]

We are currently at 1414.56 and only 12 points away from a new all-time high in the DJIA. That should easily be worth 10 points in the SPX. It's just like walking a howitzer - sometimes big guns do the best. If technology were to start attracting some attention the SPX could be at new all-time highs before June 30 '07. But that's a big if.

[Propstrike]

Hope it happens, tech seems to be warming slightly.

[Birchtree]

Sees a relatively bullish target for the S&P 500 of 1600 for 2007.

http://www.strategasrp.com/pdf/isr061220.pdf

[mailmanusa]

I almost bought some C yesterday. Might do it today. I had 100% C for the first 15 years of my career. Hope yur right about the growth.

[Birchtree]

Mailmanusa,

Admire your courage to divulge that strategy in this environment. The sign on the door says TSPtalk and not TSPtimingtalk. Are you sorry for that strategy or were you rewarded where DCA time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the market?

Dennis - permabull#1

[mailmanusa]

Birch, I need to correct myself and say that my first 10 years was all C. The compound return for that time frame is about 9%. Yes it was rewarding to earn that. I am also having fun trading and am doing very well for the first 6 weeks of tracking anyway. Timewise, my trading record is too short thusfar to compare to a 10 yr spread. I believe that protecting losses is as important as posting gains. The DCA game supports the trading game. With the idea that the market will always go up with time supports traders idea. I think it makes traders less skittish about moving around. I find trading exciting and so far it has been significantly rewarding. I am glad you support DCA.

[Birchtree]

Mutual funds inflow tend to be seasonally strong during the first quarter. To me it's liquidity that will be the main driver of new highs in 2007. The bad boy C fund will finally receive some accolades - just watch. I wish I owned more shares.

[mayday]

The SP500 has been bouncing around in a channel between 1408 and 1425 It closed at 1430.73 breaking through that channel. I'm a little gun shy for the action Tuesday.

[Birchtree]

Back on thread #52 I mentioned that if technology were to start attracting some attention the SPX could be at new all-time highs before June 30, '07. Well, this week it was all Nasdaq. The Composite Index rose 2.8% to 2502.82, while the SPX finished the week up 1.5% at 1430.73. It looks like tech will lead for awhile and pull SPX along with it. Suits me fine.

[Gaetaone]

Bar Chart.Com Charts for the S&P 500 are through the roof. I've been watching them for a few months and have never seem the rating confidence this high. 100% Buy accross the board. That's not saying a bad earnings report, storm or something else can't muck up the works but for now....

http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=$INX

[Fivetears]

... Dennis is very very pleased.

[Gaetaone]

What a differece a few hours makes. Numbers are still very positive for tomorrow but not through the roof. I is looking much better.... 2% week still possible...But I'd settle for anything to the plus side...

C Fund http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=$SPX "Pretty Good"
I Fund http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=EFA "Looks Like $$"
F Fund http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=AGG "OH NOOO"



John

[Fivetears]

After Hours Trading - +.70 points

[mailmanusa]

The C is looking inviting today at 22 cents below a recent high of 15.95. A flat or a down midday might trigger a buy to 100 C for me.

[mayday]

The C is looking inviting today at 22 cents below a recent high of 15.95. A flat or a down midday might trigger a buy to 100 C for me.

You got that right. Looking at the chart. Birch will be happy.

[fedgolfer]

... it would look more enticing if it was at or above its 10 DMA ($15.80) or 20 DMA (15.75), if you trace a trendline from Nov 1st till now hitting the lows, this line will show the ideal buying points dating back to Nov 1st. Closing below that at 15.73 leaves a couple points of major resistance, the charted trendline and the 10 dma. With the econ news on slate, it doesn't look as good a buy as it did on 11/1, 11/27 and 1/5.

[Birchtree]

My last DCA was at $15.84 and if the next one is at or lower will be fine. The prospect of seeing $15.60 is probably remote but if it goes I'll get me a small bite again like on 1/5/07. Once it takes out $16.00 that becomes the floor and any cheaper pricing is wishful thinking. We could be looking at $17.00 within the next two months. I hate that big a move but there is no way to stop it. C fund is destined to be the 2007 outperformer. Don't tell anyone.

[James48843]

C fund looking stronger than "S" in the last couple of sessions, at least it seems to be holding better.

Could this be an indicator that the stretch is maturing?

As the guy standing on the soapbox down the street keeps telling me...

"The end is near.."

[James48843]

that guy has a valid point ...

[Rod]

that guy has a valid point ...

He sure does!:D

I also heard him say...

TSP Sally (S)ells (C)shells b(I) the seashore

:blink:

[James48843]

The support level for the S&P 500 (C) should be at about 1382, plus or minus two points.

If it falls below that level of resistance, the next level of resistance is at 1360, plus or minus two.

If it falls below 1360, our next level of resistance isn't until 1320.

[James48843]

We will blow downward through the 1382 at the open. I bet we pause momentarily at the 1360, and see if that holds. I bet it does, at least once today.

If it blows below that today, then the next stop is 1320. If 1360 holds, then we need another day or two to see if that is just a pause, or if that is going to hold.

See you after the open in the morning.....

[James48843]

That's two shots of resistance in the 1380 range. It did blow buy 1382 and continue down at the open, but now it's poped back up above that 1380, up to 1387.

Let's see if that peters out by noon, and starts the slide down again. My money is on it continuing the downward trend.

Sitting on the sidelines and watching.....

[weatherweenie]

outperforming the S fund significantly today.

[James48843]

Yes, "C" is doing better than "S".

That's showing the flight to quality, as we're about to hit the 1380 for a third time now. If the "S" had also leveled, I'd say we were in for a pause and possible bounce back. But that is not happening, so it's still downward for the trend.

Since the "S" is not holding at all, I see the 1380 falling this afternoon, and lower by the end of the day. How much lower, we'll just have to wait and see.

Maybe 1365 today?

[James48843]

Nope- not 1365 today. 1374 on the close.

But again, it petered out in the last hour of trading, and sunk to a trading day low at the close.

Again- it will drop tomorrow.

Perhaps we'll hit the 1365 rough patch tomorrow. That could signal entry into "phase 2", but I still think we are on track for a 1320 before it turns around for good.

[fabijo]

S&P down 3% this year! I believe it is the lowest of the three.

[Tempest]

"The S&P 500 is now down about 6% from the peak and that is music to my ears. But there is that chance we might finally get that 10% pullback; something we have not seen since early 2003. That would be a nice gift for those of us who have been waiting for that elusive buying opportunity."
-- TSPTalk Commentary for 3/6


Blake: We're adding a little something to this month's sales contest. As you all know, first prize is a Cadillac Eldorado. Anybody want to see second prize? [Holds up prize]
Blake: -Second prize is a set of steak knives. Third prize is you're fired.
-Alec Baldwin Glengarry Glen Ross


Ooooo I want to be on the board so bad. Must resist. Must not touch the light - no- no (puts fingers in both ears ) LALALALALA

[12%ayear]

350z,I jumped into the C. My concern is the Euro. The dollar is oversold with the Yen and Euro. BOE meets this week also. http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070307:MTFH75563_2007-03-07_09-12-36_L07298499&type=comktNews&rpc=44 ...
Investors are also keeping an eye on a two-day Bank of England interest rate-setting meeting, due for a decision at 1200 GMT on Thursday. Consensus forecasts say that the central bank would leave rates unchanged at 5.25 percent.

[350zCommTech]

350z,I jumped into the C. My concern is the Euro. The dollar is oversold with the Yen and Euro. BOE meets this week also. http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070307:MTFH75563_2007-03-07_09-12-36_L07298499&type=comktNews&rpc=44 ...
Investors are also keeping an eye on a two-day Bank of England interest rate-setting meeting, due for a decision at 1200 GMT on Thursday. Consensus forecasts say that the central bank would leave rates unchanged at 5.25 percent.

Yes, I completely agree. The dollar will probably be up tomorrow. I'm also agreeing about the C fund. One of my indicator is giving me a buy signal for the C fund. My problem is that I wanted to see a bigger drop in the C before I jump back in. That might happen in the afternoon though. Our deadline sucks.

[12%ayear]

Yes, I completely agree. The dollar will probably be up tomorrow. I'm also agreeing about the C fund. One of my indicator is giving me a buy signal for the C fund. My problem is that I wanted to see a bigger drop in the C before I jump back in. That might happen in the afternoon though. Our deadline sucks. The DJIA is the only thing holding up the C Fund today. Any sell-off with the DJIA will really enchance the selling pressure on the C. Let's see if it does the opposite of yesterday off that 12:00 buying spree. Notice that 12100 level was right at 12:00 yesterday. http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns.html notice how the C is really lagging behind. There has to be a move . imo

[Birchtree]

Ferdinand has left the pasture gate open - ya'll come on in. We got ample room. The European Central Bank reported that money supply grew at its fastest rate in 17 years in January in countries that use the euro, a trend that could argue for higher rates there.

[Elgallo]

Just buy the laggard.

This is an interesting visual representation of what is going on with the TSP funds. This is a horse race isn't it?

http://www.tspmoney.com/

[12%ayear]

I switch to the C fund today. Have a feeling it will beat the S and the I tomorrow.It is overdue for a pop.

[Show-me]

I switch to the C fund today. Have a feeling it will beat the S and the I tomorrow.It is overdue for a pop.

I hope you are correct! :D

[Aspiration]

Me too! Went 90% C today. :D

[GUCHI]

me too i'm all in !!!!!

[12%ayear]

350z,I jumped into the C. My concern is the Euro. The dollar is oversold with the Yen and Euro. BOE meets this week also. http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com: 20070307:MTFH75563_2007-03-07_09-12-36_L07298499&type=comktNews&rpc=44 ...
Investors are also keeping an eye on a two-day Bank of England interest rate-setting meeting, due for a decision at 1200 GMT on Thursday. Consensus forecasts say that the central bank would leave rates unchanged at 5.25 percent.
sure enough the Yen is falling C looking great pre-market

[350zCommTech]

sure enough the Yen is falling C looking great pre-market

I wish I had followed my buy signal yesterday.:(

[clester]

Do we need a close above 1407 (2-28 close) to indicate a new short term uptrend? It looks like the resistance level to me.

[James48843]

Nope- not 1365 today. 1374 on the close.

But again, it petered out in the last hour of trading, and sunk to a trading day low at the close.

Again- it will drop tomorrow.

Perhaps we'll hit the 1365 rough patch tomorrow. That could signal entry into "phase 2", but I still think we are on track for a 1320 before it turns around for good.

I'm sticking on 1320 for the bottom here.

I blew it and jumped back in yesterday, and got hammered.

I'm stuck riding it out now.

1320 on the way.

[Birchtree]

SPX of 1320 is a -9.5% correction - enough pain to make me happy.

[Remo]

I'm with ya James! Look on the bright side... we sure have a helluva lot of shares just waiting to explode back up when the C finally takes off!

[Birchtree]

Repunsel,

C fund will climb this week - don't despair, drop that hair.

[Wolverine]

Birchtree............You really that positive with the C this week are ya?

[Birchtree]

I've been deep in the C fund since Feb'04, another year will hardly make a difference - just give me them shares. But this heightened volatility does add a flavor that has potential. We are still on a primary Dow Theory buy signal. With the underlying internals strength, the risk is being out not being in, at this point at least.

[tsptalk]

We are still on a primary Dow Theory buy signal. With the underlying internals strength, the risk is being out not being in, at this point at least.
It's interesting that the market tanked as soon as the Dow Theory buy signal was generated - when transports made a new high. Same thing happened after the last buy signal. I realize it is a long-term buy signal but maybe it's a good short-term sell signal as well?

[Birchtree]

You are prescient from your contrary perspective - is now a good time to begin the process of home shopping? The banks soon will have them on sale.

[James48843]

With all the negative energy and comments out there, we may get the rocket ship higher here.

Contrarian......

I'm in.

[Birchtree]

What impresses me is the ineligibility of the subprimer to participate in this market as a positive development. They will remain obsequious to their mortgages for the next 3 years being sudued and locked, this will potentially extend the top of this market. The fewer the better. The bull is stingy.

[sugarandspice]

Isnt this the best week the S&P has had since sometime in 2005?

[ATCJeff]

Isnt this the best week the S&P has had since sometime in 2005?

2003 September I believe.

[Show-me]

The S&P 500 should end the year at about 1550, according to Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. portfolio strategist. She shares her bullish market outlook with CNBC's Mark Haines

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=225050174&play=1

[Birchtree]

That sounds so minimalist - the Birch has a new target of 1750, then I get nervous. Somebody open the door and let'em in.

[James48843]

Birch-

Do you think it's time for a breather yet?

We have to be getting close to a pause here.....

[Birchtree]

We had three days of an internal sideways pause - that's enough for my taste. The bulls may gore the bears something desparate next week - they are short at record numbers. Anything can happen with a Primary 3 up - like parabolic moves at 60 degree angles. Whew, glad I'm in for the duration.

[nnuut]

Queation, are we in wave 3 or wave 5? IYHO:D

[clester]

C fund has been outperforming for a couple of months. How long will it continue? We are now at the bottom of the current channel. Will we bounce back up to the top once again? Seems to me all the bad news is built in and we are climbing the wall of worry.

[Birchtree]

How long will the outperformance continue - that's easy. Three years at a minimum up to seven years as a probability.

[clester]

Looks like the top of the current channel is 1510-1515 range. We need to get through 1500 first.

[clester]

Hope we hold onto 1500.

[clester]

Well, we held onto 1500 and futures are up big this morning. Maybe, today will get more people off the sidelines. Goldielocks is back. Will the C fund continue to outperform or is it time for S and I again??

[ATCJeff]

Well, we held onto 1500 and futures are up big this morning. Maybe, today will get more people off the sidelines. Goldielocks is back. Will the C fund continue to outperform or is it time for S and I again??

Microsoft looking to buy Yahoo again should allow the S fund to outperform the C fund today. I fund should have it's day Monday!

[Birchtree]

Money is now betting that it's time for the weighted SPX to play catch up to the Dow. The bigger picture tells us that all of the bears, even the staunchest of them all, will eventually become bulls and will do so right near or at a top, so this will help denoting levels of trend. We don't want the G funders to get on board - the market will do everything, and I do mean everything, to keep the majority from participating, bull markets do not like company, only at the top. Lilly Paders know how dangerous this rally can be to their bottom line - but fear is rampant. Be right and sit tight.

[clester]

The C fund is close to the top of it current trend channel. I decided to take some profits and wait on it to come down or move sideways for a couple days. I think the old high of 1527 will pull us up like a magnet.

[clester]

Looks like we're not getting any profit taking today. C fund up 4 days in a row. We may be flat until wednesday's fed meeting. I think that would be good , giving us a base and getting us ready for pop on wed.

[clester]

Nice bounce off the 1500 level. Good support there now. I think Griffin is right, next stop 1527.

[clester]

The C fund chart is looking good. If we follow the trend on up, we are ready for another pop up. Maybe up to a new high of 1527.

[clester]

If we hold onto 1500 the trend is intact. So far so good.

[weatherweenie]

If we hold onto 1500 the trend is intact. So far so good.

1496 and change :sick:

[clester]

I hope somebody buys the dip. PPI tomorrow though.

[clester]

C fund held the 20 dma, uptrend still in place. Nice recovery. Will CPI on tuesday have the same effect as PPI?
Getting close to the all time high of 1527 again. Will we make it this week? Will we have profit taking if it does?

[clester]

It looks like the Bank of Japan releases its interest rate decision Thursday. Carry trade and world liquidity is at stake. If they raise rates it will affect USM. An analyst I heard said our markets took a hit last may and in feb for these concerns. Be careful.

[clester]

C fund still outperforming other funds over the last month or so. Will we see 1527 this week?

[clester]

Yeasterday was a little troubling, but we're above the 20 day moving average. C fund continues to outperform S and I in the short term. Look at a 1 month comparison.
1605

[clester]

Looks to me like the S&P has formed a base pattern since about APR 25. Could be gaining strength for the next leg up.
1607

[clester]

Great close on the S&P! Next stop 1527? Still outperforming.

[clester]

Can the S&P break out to a new 6 year high today? I think the chances are good. We only need 1 more point. I wonder if there will be a pull back when we get near 1527.

[clester]

We had a failed break out yesterday. We're still basically in a basing mode. Short term trend is still up. Next top of channel is about 1530.

[Birchtree]

Airborne - all the way to 1750 on the SPX.

[nnuut]

"C" is doing great lately!! You must be paying someone off:confused: :D

[clester]

We had a C fund break out friday. Many say we may have some resistance at 1527, but we have solid support at 1500, also some support at 1515. C-fund still outperforming on a monthly basis. Will we have a pullback this week? Profit taking?

[clester]

C fund getting beat by the S fund today. Is this a new trend? S&P seems a little tentative as it nears the 1527 mark. The all time intaday high is way up at 1552 (?) I think. Tuesdays are a little scary to me (maybe profit taking tomorrow) . What to do for tomorrow? We a little above the middle of the short term channel.

[Birchtree]

If you don't have confidence, please don't play on the rails because the train is coming through.

[qibovin]

Are we going to have to "fill in" that gap opening today with a retest of 1490 in the near future?

[Birchtree]

Gaps usually don't get completely filled during bull markets. Ride the wave up.

[Birchtree]

Companies in the SPX bought back $110 billion of stock in the first quarter. That brought the total over the past four quarters to $442 billion - enough to buy the bottom 100 companies in the S&P 500. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding, lifting earnings per share. Over the last seven years profits advanced more quickly than stock prices and as a result stocks don't look very expensive. And with the advent of private equity on the prowl more companies in the SPX will be taken private. We could see a number over 1700 on the index in 2008. Rock on.

[qibovin]

Bear with me on my first attempt to post an image.

From Chart of the Day http://www.chartoftheday.com/20070629.htm?T

Today's chart illustrates the average monthly gain of both large-caps (S&P 500 - gray bars) and small-caps (Russell 2000 - blue bars). The chart illustrates that stocks (both large-caps & small caps) have had a tendency to struggle at sometime during the summer with small-caps not really beginning a strong rally until November.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20070629.gif

This suggests to me to "lean toward" C over S fund for July and September.

[USNAVYRETIRED]

Very nice chart. I can read this one! GL to all! :nuts:

[tsptalk]

I agree. Thanks for sharing it. I may have to use it myself.

[saturneptune]

I agree. Thanks for sharing it. I may have to use it myself.
Got a big favor to ask. My computer crashed and was able to recover nothing. Does anyone have the graphical link to yahoo that shows the spx with the two moving averages (not sure of the days), i think the lines are blue for the close of spx and red and green for the moving averages. It has been a great tool and I got it from here. Thanks again.

[nnuut]

Try this one SN, I like it!! Need anymore?
Norman:D
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979

[Show-me]

Something like this.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m20,m50&a=m26-12-9,ss&c (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m20,m50&a=m26-12-9,ss&c)=

[saturneptune]

thank you both very much. greatly appreciated.


Mike

[qibovin]

Did you mean to say July and October?
:embarrest:Yes. Good catch, Pal.

[dell]

Any thoughts on where the C will end the day?

Dell

[EW_ret]

16.96 +$0.18, or +1.07%

[dell]

Roger that. Thanks.

Dell

[James48843]

This is about the strongest chart I have seen in ages and ages of investing. (I've been playing in the market for 25 years).

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX

While a couple days ago I was sure we were looking at a top, this foundation indicates to me that we have another good run upward ahead.

I can't believe how much strength there is in this market.

[dell]

This market puzzles (perplexes?) me. I hope there is strenghth left but reality has to set in at some point. I seem to recall the market went into a tailspin once before based upon two words:

Irrational exuberance.

[Birchtree]

James,

Continue to fight this bull all the way up. How can a market make new all time highs, and at the same time, have polls of its participants near or at all time lows. That is actually a very healthy condition to predict the sustainability of this bull market, excuse me I mean raging bull market. Snort. We have a classic buy spike on the SPX breadth MCO and a breadth thrust on top of it, and the SPX breadth MCSUM is making higher highs as well. Wave 3's always break a key technical price structure in its wake.

Dennis - permabull #1

[James48843]

Well, tomorrow the S&P 500 should hit the 1450 level on the way down.

That number- 1450- is very significant, as it runs up against the 200 day moving average.

Either it holds, in which case we're now near the bottom, or it doesn't hold.

If 1450 doesn't hold, the next real solid support on the way down isn't until around the 1380 range. Now THAT could hurt.

Here is the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=1&id=p76520166071

[Birchtree]

Somebody give me a BIG V for the bottom. The Euro ladds are waiting with bated breath to spend their money to buy undervalued assets (stocks) with their overvalued euros. And I don't even want to think about the Chinese.

[Wolverine]

I myself keep looking at that 1380 mark as very possible with all this. This week could tease us with some upside and could be just that.

[nnuut]

I myself keep looking at that 1380 mark as very possible with all this. This week could tease us with some upside and could be just that.
Exactly, I wouldn't trust this Market with my house keys. I really don't think it's over. OK, again I have changed destiny NOW it's through the roof. A small donation would be appreciated.1818

[fabijo]

Market Strength Indicator

I just wanted to comment that Trader Fred's "blue line" market strength indicator did an excellent job in predicting the recent C-Fund decline.

Excellent observation, Paladin. I'll have to take note of it in the future.

[Gritz]

Posted this in my account talk, but thought might get more reader input here, please forgive the double posting:

Question for the statisticians and technical gurus: in looking back three years from today at the $SPX, on a daily chart, each time we crossed the 200 dma, we had to wait for the 20 dma to lower and cross (once I think the first time in 05 we barely touched) the 200 dma before we began our upward movement in the market. Is this a given /natural occurrence due to the drop through the 200 dma? If so it seems we would have several more days of downward movement before we start our climb back up -- just some thoughts, please enlighten me!

[clester]

I think today is very important. Will we break the short term downtrend? 1460 or so is the top of the trend line. The 200 dma is also around this point. Will traders sell todays rally? Most of the time the markets reverse from where they start the day. Will today be one of those? Lots of questions.

[vectorman]

I think today is very important. Will we break the short term downtrend? 1460 or so is the top of the trend line. The 200 dma is also around this point. Will traders sell todays rally? Most of the time the markets reverse from where they start the day. Will today be one of those? Lots of questions.


1961

[vectorman]

A better look at chart above, SP500 2 month with 200ma and resistence line. The horizonal line is taken from the 1459.63 closing price on 2/20/07.

1962

[James48843]

I think we will retest that area around 1410 on thursday. that might be a good place to buy back in.

[Christopher]

Move over some, Birch...the lilly pad was too crowded as it was, and now it's worse with that stinkin' penny showing up a day early. I KNOW, I KNOW, I can hear ya..."be right and sit tight - and don't let those G and F funds bite, bite, bite"... :suspicious:

[Birchtree]

There is plenty of room in the C fund - it's so undervalued and contrarian. But if you look out 12 months from now the SPX could conceivably be 34.56% higher which puts it at 2060. Fabijo was being conservative with a projection of 1800.

[Sonic]

Any one like rockets, we have take off!

[camper65]

Any one like rockets, we have take off!


Thank You Mr. Buffet! (sp)

[James48843]

Ok-

I am looking at the S&P 500 chart, and it is beginning to tell me we are about to reverse direction a little.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX

What I see in this chart:

1. Volume down

2.Narrowing range- tight squeeze tells me a move is about to happen. We MAY get another uptick to 1550 in the next couple days, and if we do, I think that is about it for a while. It is equally possible we've hit the top, and the next move will be down. I've got to be prepared to move out quickly if that happens in the next couple days.

3. CMF is flattening out.

4. On the point and figure chart, we are now at eleven units into the up cycle., and that's about the average time before a reversal. I would think if we get a little more up (12 or 13 units) we will have hit the short term top.

5. Should that happen, then I am looking for and will be ready for a slide back down to the 1490 - 1480 level to set the foundation for the next run. It may not make it back down that far based on the chart- so I may just move off to the sidelines at 1550, and wait until it drops to 1510-to-1520 or so to buy back in.

Anyway, that's how I am thinking tonight.

[James48843]

What a difference a day makes.

Now I am looking at the same chart, a day later, and thinking exactly the opposite. I am thinking a huge upside to 1580 or 1590 is close at hand.

I guess I don't really have a clue.

Buying in more, and hanging on tight. Riding the bucking bronco!

[Birchtree]

IMHO the smart money has been long the last 1500 points. Anyone who bought the summer lows or got on along the way is not going to sell this market until January 2nd. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market - so says Ferdinand.

[James48843]

Again, looking at the "stockcharts.com" S&P 500, I am thikning again we are going back down to between 1490 and 1510 in the next couple days. the 1490 is if times were "normal'. The 1510 number because I think people willo jump back in if it reaches the 1510, and as long as people believe the economy is healthy. Then we'll pop back up fairly quickly.

A real roller coaster for those who are trying to play "capture the ride."

[fedgolfer]

Will the 20 day SMA hold as support for the S&P? To me that's the big question and we won't find an answer till well after the IFT deadline... it's always a little scary buying/holding at the support levels, isn't it?! Charts look ugly though, a lot of similarities between now and the last sell off. But I also remember the big boys showing distribution in Financials, like they are now, only to be snagged up later.... just on a shorter time frame... looks like GS may be going through its handle now, OR its a DCB. Citibank is definitely seeing short interest, which is exactly what the big boys want before they pull the big whamo.

[fedgolfer]

Will the 20 day SMA hold as support for the S&P?

looks like it held the 20 day SMA -- for today. Let's hope the spinning top doji signals a reversal like it did on 9/10 (also on the 20 day SMA).

[James48843]

Looks like we are headed down again.

Will 1500 support level hold?

Another support exists at or about 1490.

[James48843]

OK- the 1500 didn't hold.

But we've bounced once now off the 1490, as expected.

Now we should get another couple points north, and then comes the real test. Will we get a second bounce off the 1490, or will it fall below that?

If it holds, that's a good sign.

If not, then look out below.

[Ed the Fed]

The same holds true for the DW4500. We are still about 8 points above Monday's low so I think the SP500 will be the real test. If it breaks down, then DW4500 will follow. Tough call on whether to be in the market right now. Too much downside IMHO. I am willing to sacrifice a little gain to avoid a huge loss.

[James48843]

"Be patient, therefore, brothers, until the Lord's coming. See how the farmer waits for the precious fruit of the earth, being patient with it until it receives the early and the late rains. You too must be patient." James 5:7

[budnipper1]

"Be patient, therefore, brothers, until the Lord's coming. See how the farmer waits for the precious fruit of the earth, being patient with it until it receives the early and the late rains. You too must be patient." James 5:7
I think all our "prodigal sons" may be headed to the G fund. :D

[$onny]

"Be patient, therefore, brothers, until the Lord's coming. See how the farmer waits for the precious fruit of the earth, being patient with it until it receives the early and the late rains. You too must be patient." James 5:7

James 4:9 (rounded)

Grieve, mourn and wail. Change your laughter to mourning and your joy to gloom.

[Birchtree]

If the C fund does a retest of the August lows it will be at $15.75 - that's an excellent price to accumulate shares. But don't worry it won't go back to that price - unfortunately. The S fund would be at $18.81 and the I fund would be at $22.68 - all golden.

[James48843]

What a roller coaster.

Well, that was about the third time that 1490 level has been tested, and held. And once again, the afternoon low was higher than the morning low, and once again we finish strongly.

That makes me much more comfortable about the future. We've moved down nicely, created a nice bottom, and now I think we'll have a postive future.

[DCguy]

It seems chances of CSI dropping below August level are very slim. I think it's just better to buy and hold till the end of this year.

[Birchtree]

DCguy,

You're my kind of investor - you think ahead. If the financials have found a bottom (they comprise 23% of the S&P 500) the C fund will wake up.

[James48843]

Boy, that C fund just can't decide what it wants to do today, can it?

[James48843]

The charts are telling me that tomorrow will continue up in the S&P500.

target for this wave is 1576 to 1590. If it goes over 1576, look for a tiny one day slide back, then perhaps another push up to 1587-1590, and then the S&P takes a nice retrenchment back about 2%.


Can't see any farther ahead than that, but the next two days should see higher to 1575+.

I'm bullish....(uncommon for a bear.)

[James48843]

Well, lay down to sleep, and get up the next morning to see your thoughts totally blown away, eh?

Futures looking down this morning.

[whitemingo]

Hang tight. 12% made his call.

[TSP06216]

Hope 1490 holds up!:blink:

[James48843]

We end up green for the day.

The good news- the 1490 held again.

I think it's all up from here.

[Bullitt]

Is that a bullish hammer candle I see?

[Birchtree]

It is extremely likely that the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 will drop to 10 or lower some point over the next several years, but this fall in the P/E ratio could be driven more by a rise in earnings than a fall in price. And if you think it is unlikely that the S&P 500's earnings will rise by much over the next several years, consider that the composition of the senior stock index will change. In particular, if commodities are in a secular bull market then 10 years from now oil and other commodity-related stocks - the stocks of companies that are likely to experience very strong earnings growth for many years to come - will probably make up 30% to 40% of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 index. Marathon Oil went into the index already this year.

I'm reminded that in bullish uptrends, price patterns will tend to open lower and gain through out the day.

[vectorman]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=130165&postcount=502

[DCguy]

C's down 2.94%..

[James48843]

1490 broke.

Next pause on the downside- is in the 1460 range- I expect we'll see that in the morning.

And if 1460 doesn't hold, then the next floor below that- well, I don't want to say it, but it looks like the next floor below that is around 1400 or so.

Not a pretty picture for the next couple days.

[charmed855]

1490 broke.

Next pause on the downside- is in the 1460 range- I expect we'll see that in the morning.

And if 1460 doesn't hold, then the next floor below that- well, I don't want to say it, but it looks like the next floor below that is around 1400 or so.

Not a pretty picture for the next couple days.

1430 is another key support level when looking at the weekly and P&F charts.

[James48843]

1451 appears to be the new 1490. It's bounced off 1451 twice now.

And we're getting a little pushback here.

Maybe we'll get luck and close in the green today. If we do, then I think the panic is over.

Got my fingeres crossed for a leveling out here.

[James48843]

Here is the REAL danger:

IF the 1440 line is crossed, we have a fundemental shift in direction, and the four year bull market will traverse into a bear.


If that 1440 mark is crossed- then I have NO IDEA where the bottom will be, and it will be some time before we will know.

[vectorman]

If it holds, should be a good run. If it doesn't, its going to hurt.

2643


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quotes/default.asp?NewSymbols=efa&SubmittedType=ADD&lasturl=%2Fquotes%2Fupdate.asp&fontsize=&LaunchedWindow=FALSE

[James48843]

The P&F chart is now showing a new S&P 500 Price Objective of 1350.

See you down there.

I'm on the sidelines. I HOPE it doesn't make it that far down, but you NEVER KNOW.

[James48843]

It is extremely likely that the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 will drop to 10 or lower some point over the next several years, but this fall in the P/E ratio could be driven more by a rise in earnings than a fall in price. And if you think it is unlikely that the S&P 500's earnings will rise by much over the next several years, consider that the composition of the senior stock index will change.


Birch- what do you estimate the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is today? I can't seem to find it anywhere.

And I know it is nowhere near as low as it was in the early 90's, so I am thinking we'll not go down below 10. I think we're bound to have enough diversity in the market that stockholders today will not let it get below 10.

Thanks in advance for your answer.

[Birchtree]

The S&P 500s overall P/E is 16.4 versus 16.2 a year ago. What's interesting is that financial firms in the S&P 500 index now trade at just 11.6 times the past four quarter's earnings; the price to earnings ratio a year ago was a still low 13.5. Cheap by any measure. I mean banks and brokers have gotten hit so badly by subprime mortgage troubles that billion-dollar write-downs now seem commonplace. If financial firm P/E ratios are down, and the overall P/E is basically unchanged, that means that nonfinancial firm valuations are higher - especially since financial firms contribute an outsize quarter of S&P 500 earnings. Excluding financial firms, the index's price to earnings ratio is 18.2 compared with 17.2 a year ago. It looks like these ratios will be decreasing in the near future.

[James48843]

Yes- these ratios will have to decrease before the market has the confidence to return to an upswing.

If the overall P/E is now 16.4, then I would bet that we will be down around 12 or so before the turnaround really sinks in, maybe 13.

Which would put the S&P on a glide path lower for a while, unless earnings really do kick that much higher. You mention Marathon Oil- it seems the Oil stocks are all saying that despite higher crude prices, they are not reaping bigger profits this time around, and are instead eating a large portion of the uptick right now.

Marathon's P/E is around 9

BP's P/E is: 11.89,

Exxon Mobile P/E is 12.59

Will oil profits zoom as we hit $100 oil, or will all the profit dollars go to the Saudis?

[James48843]

The P&F chart shows the price objective is 1350.

See more details in the P&F Chart School thread.

2685

Note 1- Now on a triple bottom breakdown from November 21st, falling beneath a bearish resistance line.

Note 2- Price objective still showing 1350 to the downside.

[Squiner]

What might the C-fund do tomorrow beacuse of what the Fed decides? I'm thinking of bailing to G today.

[Birchtree]

The C fund will probably be pushing toward its' yearly high price of $17.53. But by all means save yourself.

[Squiner]

The C fund will probably be pushing toward its' yearly high price of $17.53. But by all means save yourself.

Spot on.....

Guess I shoud've followed my gut...and your sarcasm.

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Spot on.....

Guess I shoud've followed my gut...and your sarcasm.


I would advise to always question admonitions from one who proudly extols the virtues of paying $13,000 - 14,000 for the opportunity to acquire $750 worth at a 2.5% lower price. Gotta love that DCA.......

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I think we are entering a critical 2 week period here.

My research says that the 1440 to 1460 area needs to hold for my monthly technicals to hold up for Dec.

This indicator failed in the middle of a 20% decline in Aug of '98 and again in the first of Nov in 2000.
These were the only 2 failings that I've seen.

The six months of volatility is an obvious reflection of uncertainty.
A break to the down side is very possible, but I'm not willing to say that it's the most likely scenario.
It's definitely too close to call going forward.
I'm being very cautious in my positions for a while.

I'll report back if or when it breaks.

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

We are very close to a very bearish cross over here....

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

We are very close to a very bearish cross over here....


We did get the bearish crossover yesterday, but we won't get confirmation till a close at these levels at end of month.

It could be shaping up just like August, where we crossed on the 15th, then put in that big intra-day low below 1380 on the 16th, then rallied out of the bottoms to finish the month bullish w/no bearish EOM indication.

It feels different this time.........

[cpchri1]

Wouldn't the TSP tracker help?

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Who hit the reset button?

C fund is at $15.69..... exactly were it ended 2006.

[Birchtree]

That $15.69 is a great price for the new employee that is just beginning to build a portfolio. For their benefit it would be nice to keep the C fund in the $15 range for the next three years, but we know that will not happen. We could see the $18 range by the end of 2008.

[James48843]

Wow. That was a blowout today, eh?

Next support level downward isn't until 1270-1260 range.

Tomorrow could be bloody again.

The S&P lost 2.91% today. That should work out to .45 cents, making the price $15.05 a share.

The last time it was this low, was October 18, 2006.

[vectorman]

The worse month for the C fund since 1988 was Aug 1998. Second worse was Sept 2002. Look what happened in the months that followed. So far the C fund for Jan 2008 is down -9.12.

1998
Aug....-14.47
Sept...6.33
Oct....8.19
Nov....6.04
Dec....5.76

2002
Sept....-10.87
Oct....8.77
Nov....5.87
Dec...-5.85

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-history.html Look at 'Returns'

http://www.tspmoney.com/tspm_tool.php?toolname=historical_chart_tool

[Show-me]

Those are good odds to me.

[vectorman]

Those are good odds to me.

But if we are going into a recession...2000,2001 & 2002 over all were real bad. :(

[Birchtree]

Stock evaluations are different now - they are solid outside of financials. I remember the 1990s well and the slide down in 2001-2002 into 2003. I also rember the 3,000 point upside into Feb.'04.

[Show-me]

C&P from one of Robo's articles. That would be a -0.825% per day YTD loss. What a way to start the New Year. We did break a record on the First Five Days. Now I wonder if we break a record for the entire month of January.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has now declined 18.2% from its all time highs back in October, and 9.9% of this decline has occurred in 2008, in only 12 trading days.

[James48843]

The worse month for the C fund since 1988 was Aug 1998. Second worse was Sept 2002. Look what happened in the months that followed. So far the C fund for Jan 2008 is down -9.12.

1998
Aug....-14.47
Sept...6.33
Oct....8.19
Nov....6.04
Dec....5.76

2002
Sept....-10.87
Oct....8.77
Nov....5.87
Dec...-5.85

The third biggest fall came in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August. Here is what happened after that:
1990:
June -0.71
July-0.36
August-8.65
September -4.85
October-0.46
November+6.36
December+2.72

So we had a down month of -8.65, followed by a negative -4.85, a negative 0.46, before it turned around.

Unfortunately, we don't have the same kind of data available for the S and I fund equivilant from back then- they didn't exist yet.

So one question to ponder is: If there is a bounce back, where should one be to gain the most? C, S or I?

[James48843]

Is New York stock exchange closed on Monday for Martin Luther King day?

[James48843]

Tomorrow not looking good. S&P Futures now showing down 60 points for tomorrow morning's open.
And, amazingly, that is exactly what the P&F chart has been predicting.
3130

Coincidence? Or fate?

[Rod]

Tomorrow not looking good. S&P Futures now showing down 60 points for tomorrow morning's open.
And, amazingly, that is exactly what the P&F chart has been predicting.
3130

Coincidence? Or fate?

BIG FAT FATE!

[Weather_n_Leather]

Where can I find information on how to read the various charts discussed in the message boards? I have heard about a P&F chart. However, I have no idea how to read it.

[Rod]

Where can I find information on how to read the various charts discussed in the message boards? I have heard about a P&F chart. However, I have no idea how to read it.

Go to Chart School!:)

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

[James48843]

Weather&Leather:

Here is a link to the simplified version of P&F chart school.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=132417#post132417

It's just a start, and it doesn't really cover where we are today, but it's a good learning tool to start with.

[weatherweenie]

+26 cents

[Barnstormer]

So one question to ponder is: If there is a bounce back, where should one be to gain the most? C, S or I?

We all wish we knew that answer! I'm untraditional, and generally go all or nothing. In the past, the I fund offered the biggest bang for the buck. In for 100%, I received untraditional gains ...then weathered untraditional losses before I could bail. Now I'm 100% F and only suffering traditional losses while wishing I had been 100% C! :blink:

Now I have to wait for the reaction to the FED's report tomorrow, before I decide where I want to be. :suspicious:

[Bullitt]

Now I'm 100% F and only suffering traditional losses while wishing I had been 100% C! :blink:

If one were a gambling man, the way he would play the fed meeting tomorrow would be with a 100% S allocation. All indicies have room to go before the prior trend's support acts as potential resistance, but the S has more headroom than C. S could potentially work out to be a +5% trade over the next few days even it hits resistance.

Best case scenario from here would be for the prior 5 year trading range to come back in play. Trendlines got out of control in 2006-2007 when they blew thru resistance of the major channel.

Bulls climbing the wall of worry, what else is new.

[James48843]

So is it time to move back in yet?

[Bullitt]

Depends on what camp you follow. According to Dow Theory, either DJIA or DJTA needs to hold their most recent lows (DJIA=11971, DJTA=4140) and then both need to move above their significant highs. Significant high for the DJTA would be 4997 and the DJIA would be 14164.

IMO it's going to be a while before we see Dow 14164. I think those lows are the more important indicator to watch if you are currently invested or looking to get invested.

Double Bottom? The Dow was only about 2% off it's closing low a few times last week. Techical signals, especially the most watched ones, rarely give an exact retrace.

[DCguy]

s&p's down 2.6% currently... at 2:41 pm. Everybody's out to sell..

[DCguy]

2:30 pm : 96% of the members in the S&P 500 are trading in negative territory. The market continues to tread along its session lows as selling interest remains strong.
Financials (-3.3%), energy (-3.1%), and telecom (-3.2%) are the worst performing sectors.
According to Reuters, the U.S. municipal bond market has weakened as hedge funds liquidate positions.DJ30 -287.54 NASDAQ -52.81 SP500 -32.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2248/628/1.53 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2646/426/932 mln

[DCguy]

down 3%!!

[Corvette]

Anybody jump into the C-fund today besides me?

C-fund is on sale. :cool:

[James48843]

$14.65 is the lowest price for the C fund since September 25, 2006.

And today looks like it will head even lower.

[weatherweenie]

$14.65 is the lowest price for the C fund since September 25, 2006.

And today looks like it will head even lower.

Hopefully 1278 on the sp500 will be close enough to the 1275 level everyone is talking about.

[weatherweenie]

Hopefully 1278 on the sp500 will be close enough to the 1275 level everyone is talking about.

Here we come to check out 1278 again. :(

[weatherweenie]

Here we come to check out 1278 again. :(

And down throught 1275.

Hold me. :worried:

[James48843]

Closes at 1273.

The sad thing is that there really is no reason for it to stop here. The last hour melted like butter. Yes, there was some money flowing in from the sidelines, but nothing that made a bounce back at all. We are only getting some pressure to slow the bloodletting, not any pressure at all to reverse direction.

It continues to look like we are on our way to the P&F chart's price objective of 1230 here.
3499

The 1270 mark equals the January low- and you'll see horizontal equality to that number. But there still is nothing that says we won't float down to 1230 on this particular down leg. I'm not sure it's going to go down that far, but at least for now, there is absolutely NO NEWS that I see in the markets that would prevent that. And we don't have a lot of significant market news scheduled to come out for a few days yet.

We continue with ...

DA BEARS.

[James48843]

I just checked-

Incredibly SMALL volume today.

Which means tomorrow will be sucked downward a lot more.

We're going down.

Big time.

[Here's14U]

Nasdaq Composite has broken it's January low today. Not a good sign. We are going lower, S&P 1230 - 1200 next stop?! Could get a 1 or 2 day bounce but its only an offramp for the pro's. Waiting for the panic to begin. I agree with you James.

[James48843]

And what do you know. All that negativity, and it looks like capitulation is finally here. Looks like a huge up day ahead.

I'm springing in for the swing- fingers crossed.

[DCguy]

now showing 3+% gain in c & s

[Bullitt]

Doesn't look like the ones who are the know entered this week playing the short side, yet the bearishness continues to persist amongst retail investors. www.marketgauge.com (http://www.marketgauge.com)

http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvMGPro/Charts/CSPCSRT.GIF

[James48843]

This was a nice runup. I think we'll get maybe one more day eeeking out a little more, then it's time for the C fund to take a rest. It's been working very hard this week.

[Birchtree]

And if the C fund refuses to rest this week - then what? I believe that a price of $17.54 was the previous peak. We are now only $1.76 away from that all-time high. If a stampede kicks into high gear and all the overhead resistance lines are broken...the potential here is flat out enormous with a return to intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3. You simply have to run the risk of being in to win. We could be looking at a once in a generation bull leg and it would be a derelict shame to miss this one waiting for a pause that may not arrive until very much further up the rope and cost much more to fully participate. The bull does not want the bears to recognize the true trend.

[Birchtree]

The lows of October 2002 and January 2008 represent nothing more than important secondary or cyclical correction bottoms in the great secular bull market. If you don't know why the market is going up simply follow the money and seek the reasons later. This uptrend will soon appear undeniable and then you all better stand back or risk getting run over in the bullish stampede. The biggest up day in history can come at any time. We are still in the beginning stages of an accelerated parabolic move to the upside - look at the angle of ascent of the price pattern. Shorts at all time highs means people are still picking tops.

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

My read on things.......

SPX closed today at 1335. I think we will see a bounce off the weekly 200ma at around 1320, then a flurry up to the 1375 range, then right back down to 1325 in July.

Confirmation will be when the 3ema crosses back above the 8ema on the MONTHLY SPX chart ....... of course the bottom will be long gone by then, but......

This will be the time to get in for those paralyzed with fear and uncertainty...... safety first.

FWIW... I put a 40% toe in the water today as insurance.
Having side stepped much of the carnage since last summer...... I'm in the "out perform" mode.... and not trying to match my ego against the "Great Humiliator".

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

BTW...... only since the The Great Perma-Bull with the sluffing bark uses "oceanic" balances to garner credibility...... I'll add that my TSP total dollar balance is up exacly $130k since last June 30th statement.

[Birchtree]

A $130K gain is marvelous - you should join the automated tracker so the rest of us can see how it's done. By my calculations inorder to make a $130K gain in the G fund you would need 270,833 G fund shares with a gain from July'07 to now of $0.48. Way to go. On the other hand I'm sitting with a loss and a steep one at that.