macdtrader's account

[macdtrader]

I moved 1% into C Fundeffective tonight since SPXhas 4 Businessweek.com indicators pointing upward today: MACD, momentum, stochastic, and WilderRSI. Three indicators are still pointing downward: CCI, Bollinger Bands, and 30 day exponential moving average. Momemtum is still negativeforDWCP and EFAso thatboth indicieshave 4 negative indicators and 3 positive indicators.

My businessplan isto move 1% intoeach stock fund from G fundif and only ifthe majority of the aforementioned indicators are positive for that fund on any given trading day.

My stop loss exit plan is to sell the entire fund immediately if the share price drops by more than 10% from yesterday's price, e.g., $12.45 - 10% = 12.33.

If anyone has suggestions on improvingmy business plan I appreciate your comments.

[macdtrader]

My apologies. My correct stop loss exit for C Fund should be $12.45 - 10% = $11.21.

[macdtrader]

Addendum to mactrader's Written Business Plan for Low Risk Trading

Iwill be using trailing stop losses, i.e., Iwill move up the stop loss exit points each day when (hopefully) TSPstock fund share prices increase.

I will not lower my stop loss exit point for each individual stock fund whenfund prices decrease.

[macdtrader]

Moving an additional 1% to C Fund effective 4/28/05 fora total of 2% C, 98% G.My C Fund stop loss exit is $11.21.

The onlychange observed withmy businessweek.com indicators is that MACDturned from positive to negative today for EFA.

[macdtrader]

No changesobserved in businessweek.com indicators for DWCP, SPX and EFA tonight. IncreasingC Fund to 3% with97% in G effective 4-29-05. C Fund stop loss exit point moved up tonight to $12.39 - 10% = $11.15.http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/emoticons/cool.gif (javascript:emoticon(':cool:', 'images/emoticons/cool.gif'))

[macdtrader]

change to my written business plan for low risk trading

I found information todayat the website below which changed my thinking about stocks :http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/dec2004/nf2004128_0319_db035.htm

Professor Jim Rogers who founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and whose market predictions have been on the money in the past said "I don't think that2005 and 2006 willbe good" (for stocks). It appears that he is on target again. I am changing to100% G Fund effective 4-30-05. If Isee a clear uptrend with the C, S, and I Funds all rising together for three or more days with 4 or more positive indicators each at businessweek.com, I will begin to invest again in each of those funds.

[macdtrader]

Noted a niceupward pop in the C Fundlast Friday on rising volume. Will watch for a repeat on Monday. Invested 100% in G Fund for now but waiting forsignalsto re-enter C Fund which I read about yesterday in a trading software advertisement. (Also noted Professor Jim Rogers recommended ABB on FoxNews Saturday and therefore assume thathe is notcompletely out of the stock market.)

Assuming thatThomson Financial's data is accurate, Stockcharts.com shows thatthe S&P 500 dropped belowits 50day moving average in mid March (sellingsignal #1, the crossover). Sometime in mid March we reachedthe heaviest sellingvolume since mid December (selling signal #2, the volume spike). The path of least resistance was down (sellingsignal #3,path of least resistance).

Watching forthe S&P 500 to cross above its 50 day moving average (buying signal #1 and #3)witha heavy buying volume spike (buying signal #2).This is probably a very boring and conservative approach foryoungTSP investorsbut I am hopingto preserve my capital,wait forthe fat pitch and stay in the game.

[macdtrader]

Thanks Birchtree. I have considered your comments anddecided tokeep 100%in G fund today waiting for a better market entry signal.

Today I discoveredthat decisionpoint.com said on 4-15-05 ..."new highs for the S&P 600 peaked in December 2004 and they have been contracting ever since...The negative divergence of new highs along with the expansion of new lows is one sign that the bull market may be over."

Best of luck in your trading andto all TSP traders.

[macdtrader]

Moving 15% to C, 15% to S, and 70% to G effective Wednesday, 4 May 05.

I think there is achancethat we may see a furtherrally in this difficult market. I am still in a defensive mode because I have lost big money in TSP Funds before but am trying to look beyond my bias to seeboth sides of the stock market. Will add to my positions if this market continues to rise onstronger volume. It was unusualto see 2 days up in a row forthe S&P 500.Volume was lighter Monday. RSI, MACD, stochastic and momentum indicators are all pointing upwards at businessweek.com. I hope Tom iscorrectin his bullish forecasts.

I believethat the Federal Reserve Bank rate increases are strengthening the US Dollar and hurting the I Fund now. They may alsohurt the C and S Funds in the future.My stoploss exit= 1151on the S&P 500. My S&P 500 target is 1229.11.

Good luck to all TSP investors and traders!

[macdtrader]

Moving to 30% G, 25% C, 25% S, and 20% I effective 5-5-05.

Upward market trend seems to be improving today after the 8thfederal funds rate hike to 3.00% and a4.00% discount rate. The opinion of market experts I have been following seemsmore cautious or bearish than bullish. Progress is being made on capturing terroist leaders.

An interestingobservation I read today is that Japan is urging China to act responsibly in managing its reserves, i.e., don't sell your $900+ billion portfolio of US bonds too quicklyand leaveus with our billions of depeciating US Dollars.The I Fundshould benefit if either nation sells its US Dollar reserves but the F Fundmay suffer.

I noted Tom bought C Fund at 12.73 on 3-17, I at 15.45 on 3-31, and S at 14.26 on 4-5-05.On 4-4-05 the prices were 12.44, 15.16 and 13.80 respectively. Since all threefunds appearto be better values today,I decided to take more risk in light of the improving market trend. I am keeping a smallpositionin G Fund for future trades.

Everyone have fun and make some money!

[macdtrader]

Moving to 37% C, 38% S, and 25% I effective 5-6-05.

I made a typographical erroryesterday. The last share prices I mentioned were on 5-4-05, not 4-4-05. Yesterday's share prices closed at $12.60 C, $14.00 S, and $15.30 I. I was luckyto buybelow the $12.73 C price on 3-17,$14.26 S price on 4-5-05, and the 15.45 I price on 3-31.

All7 indicators at businessweek.com are green and pointing upwards today for SPX, DWCP, and EFA. This is very unusual. I am takinga very risky position effective tomorrow based on the7 bullish indicators. I am also changingmy stop loss exitpoints to$12.60 - 2% = $12.35 C, $14.00 - 2% = $13.72 S, and $15.30 - 2% = $15.00.


Good trading to everyone!

[macdtrader]

Moving back to 100% G Fund effective 10 May 2005. As Tom pointed outin today's commentary, the probability is that the S&P 500 average will decline after the recent jobs report.

Birchtree, I may be wrong again but I like to bet on the side of the highest probability of making my capital grow.The Fedhas not finishedraising interest rates. The C, S and F Funds all seemquite risky now.To be right on I Fund, a tradermust guess the direction of the US Dollar and the EAFE correctly. If anyone hasfound a reliable way to do that, please let all of us know your methodology.

Will keep watching for another opportunity to re-enter these bearmarkets at lower prices. Best wishes to everyoneto reach yourfinancial freedom!

[macdtrader]

Moving to 40% S,40% C and 20% I effective 5-11-05.

That's all right Birchtree. Thanks for the upbeat comments. There is still much pessism amongthe market advisors I have been following. I hope you and Tom are right and we get a newbull market.

As I mentioned yesterday, I was looking to buy the stock funds again at lower prices. It looks like the S&P 500 may close lower today. All 7 of the http://www.businessweek.com indicators are giving green (buy) signals for SPX, DWCP and EFA today.Your guesses are as good as mine how to allocate the funds. The S Fund and C Funds seem to have the most predictable profits.I Fund is some days more profitablebut isvery cantankerousto predict.

Best wishes to all for achievingyour financial freedom!

[macdtrader]

Moving 100% to G Fund effective 5-14-05.

I am truly sorry, but I haveto disagree with Tom. I had hoped for a new bull market but do not see many signs of ithappening. After8 Fed interest rate increases of 0.25%, the liquidity in this economy is shrinkingwhich means less money available for economic activity and corporate expansion.More Fed rate increases are probably coming later this year.

Themarket environmentin 2005 appears more like the bear market of 2000 - 2001 than the bull market of 1994 - 1995. Stock prices appear to be regressing to the mean. I am hoping to preserve my remaining capital and buy stock funds laterat lower prices.

Best wishes to all forpreserving and increasing your TSP balances!

[macdtrader]

Reallocating my accountto 32%C, 45% S, 19% I, 3% F, and 1% G effective 5-20-05.

I was wrong and Tom has beencorrect the first 3 days of this week. The numbers abovereflect the gains in each fund on the first 3 days of this week: C = +$0.34, S = +$0.47, I = +$.20, F = $0.03, and G = $0.01 for a total of $1.05 in gains by the 5 funds. I have been wanting toseethreeconsecutivedays where the stock market averages move upon heavy volume like we saw earlier this week.I hope Tom is correct againand enough cash will move in from outside the marketto move our stock funds higher.

Best wishes to everyone for reaching financial success.

[macdtrader]

Moving to 20% G, 30% F, 15% C, 20% S, and 15% I effective 5-27-05.

In a nutshell, the broad stock market is having difficulty making progress upwards while long term bonds are becoming attractive.

Therate of growthin the MZM money supply has beenfalling since 2002.

Inflation measured by CPI-Waccelerated to a 3.6% annual ratein April 2005 from 3.1% in March and 3.0% in February and January.

The ISM Vendor Indexhas been falling for months but is still above 50 (economic activity is slowing down).

The yield on 13 week T-bills isrising faster than long term bond yieldswhich is flattening the yield curve. The Fed may raise the inter-bank loan rate again.

Commodity prices measured by the CRB indexes arerising but the rate of increase appears to be slowing.

The US Dollar has been falling but the rate of its fall seems to be slowing. The economy is weakening.

Best wishes to all TSP investors for capital preservation and growth.

[macdtrader]

Reallocating to 10% G, 10% F, 50 % S,30% C, and 0% I effective 6-2-05.

It seems that Tom was correct and Iam the dumb money. The S&P 500 and the Wilshire 4500 indicies have moved above their 13 day and 50 day moving averages which is a bullish signal for boththe S and C Funds.The indicators on these indicesare bullish at http://www.businessweek.com. The EAFE is being hampered by the falling Euro which leads to astronger US Dollarin the aftermathof the rejection of the EU constitution by France which is bearish for the I Fund. The S Fund wasour strongest stock fund yesterday and I expect it to continue the leadership.

Yesterday the F Fund had a surprisingly strong$.03 increase and the G Fund a steady $.01 increase. I am keeping some cash there now for the reasons I cited on my last post. Iwill moveadditional cashto the C and S Funds tomorrow if it appears that asummer stock market rally will develop. I am trying to dollar cost average my cash into stocks. I expect to see a summer rally.

[macdtrader]

Reallocating to22% C, 56% S, and 22% I effective 6-17-05based on the fund share priceincreases of.05, .13, and .05respectively on Thursday.

The uptrend isour friend. I cannotpredict how high the prices of the 3 stockfundswill move but am trying to mirror their price action.2005 is ayear which ends in 5 and historically years ending in 5 are up years for the stock market.

Trimtabs.com (http://www.trimtabs.com), which publishesexpensive researchfor institutional investors, states thatcorporations have beennet buyers of their shares in the past 2 weeks. As Trimtabs explains, L1, the trading float ofshares is shrinking and corporate America is a net buyer of stock.As the supply of sharesshrinks, stock prices will rise over the next 2 to 6 weeks due to the lag effect of corporate purchases. Trimtabslatest newsletter states that they are 100% bullish to 200% (leveraged) bullish. Also, they offerthis advice/question: why buy bonds when stocks are yielding almost 4.9% whenthe effect ofstock buy backs by corporations is added to the dividend yield of the S&P 500? Trimtabs offers a free one month trial subscription. I am impressed with the quality of their research and hope other TSPTalk fans will offer their views on Trimtabs'advice.

[macdtrader]

Hi mlk_man,

I just rechecked and www.trimtabs.com (http://www.trimtabs.com)is actually correct. From today's issue:

Bottom Line: massive float shrink + surging inflows in US equities = big summer rally

Also, investors heavily favor small cap stocks.

Best of luck to you and all TSP investors for a big summer rally!

[macdtrader]

Changed to 60%S, 30% C, and 10% I effective 6-22-05.

[macdtrader]

Requested an IFTto 100% G Fund on Friday morning which was effective Friday night. I tried to post this change Friday morning but received an error message about too many conections. (There could be a rally on Monday since I now have 100% in G.)

Congatulations to Tom and all TSP investors who moved out ofC and SFunds before Thursday and Friday'smarket downturn. I plan to follow Tom more closely in the future since he has been more accurate than the other advisors and indicators I follow.Best wishes to Tom and all other TSP investors for successful trading.

[macdtrader]

IFT effective tonight to 30% G, 30% F, 10% C, 20% S, and 10% I. CNBC now showing crude oil -1.14, Dow + 71.89, NASDAQ +17.10.

[macdtrader]

IFT effective tonight: 30% C, 40% S, and 30% I. My best judgementtells methat the major stock market averages want to move higher now. If the market likes what Dr. Alan Greenspan says, the averagescould move higher and Tom's seasonality chart for early July will be in back in vogueduring July 2005. If the market does not like Alan's message,they could decline and I will buy shares more cheaply tonight. If the market does notcare, there will be more of the same trading sideways market. A hint that rate hikes may end soon couldslow down the rising dollar and benefit the I Fund.

Businessweek.com's free chart shows that the S&P 500 is stochastically oversold now. Trimtabs.com still predicts a major rally this year based on the float shrink of common stockshares and coupled with moreinvestment dollars available now. I hope Trimtabs iscorrect.

Best Wishes to All TSP investors for a profitable 2005!

[macdtrader]

IFT effective tonight: 40% C, 50% S, and 10% I.

[macdtrader]

IFT effective 7-12-05: 20% C, 65% S, and 15% I. It was geatto see all 5 TSP funds up on the same day yesterday. Businessweek.com's trend indicators are mostly positive for C and S Funds. The S Fund's uptrend seems the strongest on a percentage basis since its price passed up the I Fund.I thought about going 100% S but admit that I still like some diversification. I hope to ride the upward trend for the 3 stock funds untilthey quitgoing up.I wishthat everyonewill have a wonderful fun summerand make yourselves some money with the TSP.

[macdtrader]

IFT effective tonight: 40% C, 30% S, and 30% I. As Birchtree predicted, Cfinished stronger than S yesterday, butI was strongerthan C and S. Trying tokeep upwith the money buildingtrends but with a littlediversification. Everyone, enjoy the ride and makesome money!

[macdtrader]

IFT effective tonight: 70% C, 20% S, 10% I. The sky is not falling yet so why not ride the uptrend untilthe market falls?

[macdtrader]

IFT tonight: 50% G, 10% F, 20% C, 5% S and 15% I. Diversifying due toambigous forecasts andcharts and the stockmarket uptrend seems to have lostsome steam.

[macdtrader]

IFT tonight: 50% G, 10% F, 20% C, 5% S and 15% I. Diversifying due toambigous forecasts andcharts and the stockmarket uptrend seems to have lostsome steam.

[macdtrader]

IFT pending for7-20-05: 10% C, 80% S, 10% I. My hopeisthat the path of least resistancewill continueupward with S Fund leading the way. Good luck to all!

[macdtrader]

IFT to40% G,30% C, 10% S,and 20% I on 7-22-05.I ammore defensivenow. Have a great weekend!

[macdtrader]

IFT effective tomorrow night, 7/25/05: 20% G, 5% F, 30% C, 35% S, and 10% I. I amhopinglast Friday's stock market fund uptrendcontinues. If so, I will move morecapital into stocks sinceGFund returns barely exceed the CPI.Good luck to all TSP participants!

[macdtrader]

IFT effective tonight: 60% C, 25% S, and 15% I. Hoping to follow the current uptrend. Even if thisis only a snoring,quiet, (stealth) rally, smallshare price increases in C, S and I haveaddedan extra$10K tomy accountsince June 05. Why not invest part of your TSPcapitalin stocks now instead of waitingforconfirmation that arip snorting bull market has arrived?

[macdtrader]

IFT effec. tonight: 30% C, 40% S, and 30% I. S and I appear slightly stronger than C at the end of last week. Best of luck to everyone!

[macdtrader]

IFT effec. tonight: 30% G, 10 % F, 19 % C, 1 % S, and 40 % I. I am becoming more defensivenow because the hot S andC Funds seemed to be cooling yesterday. Also,Tom's forecasts may beearly andcorrect.Perhaps Chinaisselling billions of US Dollars now to rebalance its massive portfolio/basket of reserve currencies, giving a boost to I Fund.Will add more to C and SFunds if the market rally picks up speed again. I hope that all TSP investorswillenjoyaprofitable August!

[macdtrader]

IFT tonight: 60% G, 10% F, 9% C, 1% S, and 20% I. As stock marketweakness continues, I am becoming more defensive. This may be the correction Tom suggested was coming.Good luck everyone!

[macdtrader]

100% G

[macdtrader]

80 G, 10 C, 10 I.

[macdtrader]

30 G, 1 F, 29 C, 20 S, 20 I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

50% C, 30% S, and 20% I at C.O.B.8-16-05.

[macdtrader]

30% G, 10% F, 30% C, 10% S, and 20% I at COB 8-19-05.

[macdtrader]

35% G, 10% F, 18% C, 12% S, and 25% I effective COB 8-22-05.

[macdtrader]

25% C, 50%S, and 25% I effective COB 8-23-05.

[macdtrader]

IFT: 30% F, 15% C, 40% S,15% I,effective afterCOBThursday night, 8/25/05.

[macdtrader]

IFT: 30% G, 30% F, 10 % C, 10% S, and 20% I effective Monday night.

[macdtrader]

IFT: 30% G, 40% F, 10% C, 10% S, and 10% I effective Tuesday night.

[macdtrader]

IFT: 30%F, 25% C,40% S, and 5% I effectiveWednesday night, 8-31-05.

[macdtrader]

IFT: 5% F, 25% C, 30% S and 40% I effective COB tonight.

[macdtrader]

Please delete.

[macdtrader]

5% G, 5% F, 30% C, 30% S and 30% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

100% L 2030 effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

100% L 2040 effective tonight.(Pyriel, L 2040 = 5% G, 10% F, 42% C, 18%S, and 25% I.)

[macdtrader]

100% L 2030 effective tonight. (Pyriel, that's 38% C, 16% S, 21% I, 16% G and 9% F.)

[macdtrader]

100% L 2030 effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

100% L 2010 effective tonight. (Pyriel, that is 43% G, 7% F, 27% C, 8% S, and 15% I.)

[macdtrader]

45g, 5f, 10c, 10s, 30i

[macdtrader]

IFT: 80% G, 20% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

IFT: 60% G, 16% I, 14% S, and 10% C effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

85% G and15% I effective Thursday.

[macdtrader]

IFT tonight: 100% L Income. (Pyriel, that is 74% G, 6% F, 12% C, 3% S and 5% I.)

[macdtrader]

50% G, 5% F, 25% C, 15% S and5% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

40g, 5f, 30c, 15s, 10i effective tonight

[macdtrader]

YTD return = +2.689%. Staying with yesterday's allocation tonight.

[macdtrader]

45% g, 15% f, 20% c, 10% s, 10% i effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

35% g, 15% f, 25% c, 15% s, and 10% i effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

60g, 15f, 10c, 10s, 5i effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

(Last Friday'spost was too late forTSP tomake the change.I cancelled it with TSP today.)

IFT effective tonight: 10% G, 5% F, 35%C, 35% S and 15% I.

[macdtrader]

40c, 40s, 20i effec. tonight

[macdtrader]

IFT: 50% G, 5% F, 15% C, 15% S, and 15% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

50% C, 30% S, and 20% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

30c, 40s, 30i effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

29c, 43s, 28i eff. tonight

[macdtrader]

40% C, 35% S, and 25% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

50c, 30s, 20i eff. tonight

[macdtrader]

40% C, 40% S, and 20% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

35% C, 45% S, and 25%I Fundeffective tonight!

[macdtrader]

20% G, 5% F, 25% C, 25% S, and 25% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

20% C, 40% S, and 40% I Fund effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

10% F, 40% C, 20% S, and 30% I effective tonight.

(I was unable to access thiswebsite earlier but mademy TSP request before noon today.)

[macdtrader]

30% C, 35% S, and 35% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

10% G, 10% F, 25% C, 30% S, and 25% I effective the next trading day after

Dec. 26, 2005.

[macdtrader]

30% G, 20% F, 15% C, 15% S, and 20% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

33% G, 32% F, 5% C, 5% S, and 25% I.

[macdtrader]

30% C, 30% S, and 40% I effective tonight

[macdtrader]

30% g, 20% f, 16% c, 17% s, and 17% i

[macdtrader]

30 c, 40 s, 30 i

[macdtrader]

IFT: 30% G, 20% F, 16% C, 17% S, and 17% I effective tonight.

[macdtrader]

IFT tonight: 40% G, 20% F, 10% C, 10% S, and 20% I.

[macdtrader]

45% G, 30% F, 8% C, 8% S, & 9% I effective tonight.