F Fund low?

[bmwnasa]

I've noticed the F Fund is hovering around a six month low. What can be said about it?

Do you see it dipping as low as it was around May of last year?

Brett

[tsptalk]

The 30 year bond did bounce off of that 6 month support but the iShares (AGG (http://tinyurl.com/6buv9)) did not. It seems to be in no man's land right now. No support or resistance (other than moving averages) around. A short term bounceis possible but I still prefer the G fund as the safe haven.

[Rolo]

I've been keeping an eye on it, too. Wait and see.

[Mike]

I see no reason to put money in the F fund until interest rates are nearing a top. We are a long ways away from that happening.

[Dave M]

And yet, over the last 30 days, the F-fund has been our best performer. I believe I will put a few $$ in there this week, taken from the G-fund, and see if it works out.

Dave

[Dave M]

On the 25th I bought some F-fund at 10.58. It closed Friday at 10.64, up eight cents in five trading days. That is about 10 times the G-fund rate so my small percentage investment is doing quite well comparatively.

Dave

[Mike]

We could be one or two rate increases away from a top on interest rates... that, combined with what is likely to be a looming pullback in the equity side means I'm actually in the F fund right now... :shock:

[tspgo_com]

Mike wrote: We could be one or two rate increases away from a top on interest rates... that, combined with what is likely to be a looming pullback in the equity side means I'm actually in the F fund right now... :shock:


It is about to bounce back from the support line. The rebound should be a goodentry point ...

http://www.tspgo.com/images/ffund050614ttalk.gif

[The_Technician]

I believe its time for the F fund to give a good return for at least the next week....

One of the things to take a look at about the F fund is it basically tracks the rate of increase of the G fund over the long term.....but here is the kicker, it does it with larger rates of increases at times greater than the G fund then sometimes recedes in the negative for a period...its just mirrors the G fund over long term but cycles up and down and around the constant G...the key here is to catch it as it cycles up and then get out in its down period.

Right at the moment, I believe we will experience a greater rate of change than the G fund and is a good time to get in if you're not in the Stocks....which look to be peaking out....

Looking for the F fund to outperform the G over the next 5 or so days....then expect a negative return....

:^

[The_Technician]

If I'm correct on the F fund valued at 6.49% on my scale and the G fund at 7.5% and that the F fund needs to come up to the G Fund then that makes a 1% rise coming over the next week.....of course this is based on the fact that I'm not expecting a F Fund collapse.....

Lets see if we get the 1% riser over the next week....

[The_Technician]

I forgot to mention that the F fund appears to be 180 degrees out of phase with the S&P since around 17 June....if this is maintained then that means we should expect the S&P to drop while the F fund goes up.....

Question is....Is this a signal that the market is giving way to treasuries as the investment of the future for a couple of years???? It would be timely since I firmly believe the market is nearing the start of its demise in Sept and Oct......

Too many factors giving poor signals at this time to be very confident of the market....

I haven't traded much since I haven't gotten a good handle of what is happening in the market, but I project a 10%+ return for the year if I keep this rate up.....I do expect to get a better handle of the market trends as I go and should increase this return.....

:^

[Mike]

Hope you're right - I've taken a two cent loss in it thus far. :P

[The_Technician]

Hey Mike,

Glad to see the fund close low yesterday.....hopefully we get a good reference point to start the next week with...

:dude:

[The_Technician]

This article speculates that the bond run we have had is possibly over.....

http://money.cnn.com/2005/07/12/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

I still think we have a bit more to go myself....personally yesterday may signal an alert to watch ....see what happens today and then decide if its worth staying in....

[The_Technician]

I see the F fund jumping up this morning.......maybe this could be the start of what I saw several days ago.....

Keep you spirits up there Mike, we might have a rebound here coming your way....

:^

[The_Technician]

After the fund seem to fizzle at the end of last week, I mentioned that I had pulled out....good thing for today it continued to fizzle out.....:?:UBummer!!!

It still looks like it could be a good move, but given market conditions:@, it could just stay this way until AG stops the interest rate increases....

Waiting for that time.....:i

[The_Technician]

U know I think its Coolhand who has got me looking this away again....after looking at the data, I believe the F fund will be making a comeback here for a while...

I let my attention slip on it, but it looked like a good buy a week or so ago.....expect it to pan out for a little while here shortly and then when Greenspud stops interest rate increases it should move onward....at least for a couple of months....we could just play in and out on the rate increases till then....:^

[vectorman]

The Technician wrote: U know I think its Coolhand who has got me looking this away again....after looking at the data, I believe the F fund will be making a comeback here for a while...

I let my attention slip on it, but it looked like a good buy a week or so ago.....expect it to pan out for a little while here shortly and then when Greenspud stops interest rate increases it should move onward....at least for a couple of months....we could just play in and out on the rate increases till then....:^



Funny, I thought I sent you a PMlast week pointing out that the F fund looks like its climbing off bottom.:?



_____Original Message_____
From: vectorman
Date: 2005-08-10 23:42:46
Subject: msg from vectorman

Hi Tech, what do you thing about a small play in the F fund now. Could it have bottomed? Thanks

From: The Technician

I think given the current interest rate increases and the non-inflation inflation....I'm given it room to settle some.

Still believe we're going down over the longer term on the S&P here though......

[vectorman]

[mlk_man]

Shhhhhhhhh

[The_Technician]

Yeah you did, but at the time the fund didn't look to have any rebound potential at the time......After Coolhand brought it up again I could see a possiblity but it will depend on the future energy costs.....it costs stay put or go upits inflationary....don't go F fund, if energy cost goes down....then no inflationary pressure....go F fund....

Sorry there Vec....

:dude:

[Birchtree]

If you have plans to play in the water with the F fund, may I suggest it would be a good idea to purchase a buoyancy compensator. It makes treading water a lot easier and maybe the bond vigilante sharks won't realize you are there. But if you can swim like Teddy you can get out alive.

Dennis

[Soldat]

Watch bonds fly in Nov-Dec

[The_Technician]

After some relative data review and newer analysis I would agree with the bonds flying....

Looking forward to seeing the F fund outperform the G for a while....

Boy have I been missing the boat lately....but I have been making some changes in analysis and hopefully will get in sync soon.....

:^

[Soldat]

I made .05/share on bonds in I think 3 or 4 days but I'm in I now, I feel that Ifund and possibly S will get their much do 5-10% gain before January. Just look at the last 2 years, Santa run from Nov-Jan.

[The_Technician]

By some very recent analysis, I believe the I fund has been played out and is on a downtrend....due to conversion of $ and other economics....but of course we could have a mid term recovery......

S fund really does look good for some more return for sometime....C fund is good for shorter period also...but doesn't give as large of a return...

:dude:

[grandma]

Question: G is paying 11.11 each day until the rate goes up to 11.12, (12/5 per The Technician)and marches on.

F fund is paying 10.62, varies each day by only a very few cents - I don't see that it has ever reached the G fund's value.

What is the allure of F that we would think about doing that??? If F gets down , say $99 or less, enough to be interesting, will it rise high enough. quick enough to outdo the G at any point, to be worth knowingly losingcash?

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y106/triso/micemap.jpg

Am I missing something here? If I have 100 shares in G I am getting 111.10, if it is in F I am getting 106.2 - is this not correct?

:*tyia -

[Soldat]

The F moves with bonds. If we have a large bond selloff or trend, F will fly. Also, most of the time but not as a rule, when the market is in a downtrend or significant uptrend, we see the buying up of bonds. This gives the F momentum.

[The_Technician]

Well Grandma...if you look at the F fund in its recent upcycle, it has returned over 4% in two months....28 March to 2Jun 2005....itlooks to be in that type of upcycle again and I fully expect it to perform in similar fashion.....;)

Now if you look at it over longer terms, the G fund outperforms the F fund.....you right about that.....:^

The trick is to invest in the F fund in its upcycle....seeing that the Feds will likely get inflation under control sometime in the next 6 months or so, the F fund looks even more enticing....:^

And don't get so trigger happy with that S fund right away...I fully expect the S fund to drop some more before we see any recovery....and then we should get a decent ride in the S or C funds....but keep in mind, the S fund has recently be returning more than the C fund of late....

:dude:

[Soldat]

I respectfully disagree with you Tech. I think that we will not see a significant drop in S and C funds. I think there will be very little breathing room (1 or 2 days at a time) between now and the new year. This is the uptrend santa run and there will be no significant down "trend".

Furthermore, I think we will see some "mass reaction" LOL, in the I fund before things settle. There might be a chance here to hop trains and I think its worth taking. Time will certainly tell.

[The_Technician]

Okayyyyy, just make sure when you hop the train you don't trip!!!

:l

[Soldat]

I may stumble a bit, but I wont fall down...:P

[grandma]

Soldat wrote: ...F will fly.

The Technician wrote:
if you look at the F fund in its recent upcycle, it has returned over 4% in two months....28 March to 2Jun 2005....itlooks to be in that type of upcycle again and I fully expect it to perform in similar fashion.....;)
The trick is to invest in the F fund in its upcycle....seeing that the Feds will likely get inflation under control sometime in the next 6 months or so, the F fund looks even more enticing....:^

so - you are saying you do expectF at some point in timto pay back more than the G - ?? The percent it increases, seems to me, is relevant only if it begins to look as tho it will put more into my fund than the G, concurrently.

I am questioning my actions in the past where I have gone to F, probably inappropriately.

??? still some :?

Thank you guys for yourreplies -

[The_Technician]

The F fund has returned .7351% in the last 21 days....1.36% in the last 12....that certainly beats the G fund....

:dude:

If the FOMC raises by a 1/4 point next Tues, how will that most likely effect the F Fund?

Dell

[vectorman]

Nightmover wrote: If the FOMC raises by a 1/4 point next Tues, how will that most likely effect the F Fund?

Dell


The 1/4 is already expected. What bond investors are looking for is a change in the wording of the statement.

Language
Gains this week were fueled in part by speculation that Fed policy makers will alter the language of their post-meeting statement next week to suggest the series of rate increases is near an end, CSFB's Li said.
The odds that the Fed will raise the fed funds target at each of its next three meetings slipped to 56 percent yesterday from 66 percent a week earlier. April futures on the federal funds rate yielded 4.64 percent, pricing in 14 of the 25 basis points by which the April rate would rise if the central bank were to raise the target to 4.50 on Jan. 31 and 4.75 on March 28. A week earlier the contract yielded 4.665 percent.
``If the Fed keeps the language unchanged, there could be some selloff,'' especially in shorter-maturity Treasury notes, Li said.
Minutes of the central bank's Nov. 1 meeting showed some policy makers were concerned about the ``risks of going too far'' with rates and discussed the need to change their outlook ``before long.'' Since May 2004, Fed statements announcing its decisions on rates have said policy makers expect to raise rates at a ``measured'' pace.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 10, 2005 08:46 EST adType = "std"; Category = "03"; HCat = "MTD8"; Keys = "null"; Width = "120"; Height = "600"; Tile = "1"; CallAd(adType, HCat, Width, Height, Tile, Keys, Category); var gnEbMinZIndex = 10000; var gfEbInIframe = false; var gEbBAd = new Object(); gEbBAd.nFlightID = 100646; gEbBAd.nWidth = 160; gEbBAd.nHeight = 600; var gstrEbRandnum = new String(Math.random()); gstrEbRandnum = gstrEbRandnum.substring(gstrEbRandnum.indexOf(".")+1 , gstrEbRandnum.length); gEbBAd.strNonSupported = "http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/NonSupportedBanner.asp?FlightID=100646&Page=&PluID=0&Width=160&Height=600&Pos=" + gstrEbRandnum; http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPipe/AdServerPipe.asp?param=%3CType%3ACommand%3BCode%3A 14%3BobjRef%3AgEbCurBanner%3BFlightID%3A100646%3BP luID%3A0%3BPage%3Awww.bloomberg.com%3BWebPageSourc e%3A0%3B%3E%3CType%3APlugin%3BAudioVersion%3A0%3BF lashVersion%3A8%3BPlatform%3A8%3BBrowser%3A512%3BR esolution%3A8%3B%3E&ord=81865618344119251134234451 437&CSVersion=5.6&OptOut=0

[Birchtree]

The whole fixed income world would like to see rates go higher - especially retirees sitting in CDs. So it becomes a trade off sacrifice, because higher rates interfere with business capital expenditures and economic growth. I think they finally change the wording and we'll all be happy and the bull market will continue. A lot of retirement plans will benefit from the coming economic growth. Probably even the PBGC.