MIssing the Boat

I am sorry but, not to be disrespectful but, I have been watching a lot of you and rerading your comments and have decided that based upon a lot of your advice you are missing the boat. Too much technical and not enough common sense.

Just letting you know while the majority of you have been sitting on sidelines, I have been having good returns. No Techs, just common sense. Try it and go with it.

Thanks and out of here.

Welcome. You will fit right in :).

Please post your moves.

Ta. Da Doc.

[tsptalk]

rondalw wrote: No Techs, just common sense. Try it and go with it.

Brilliant!

Err, what is common sense telling us to do? Anyone?

Again, no disrespect but my gut tells me to stick with my plan. Sticking with my original thoughts on market. 25 G, 25 c and 50 S. Just me.



Out of here, good luck

[tsptalk]

I think your allocation (25 G, 25 c and 50 S) is an excellent longer term allocation for this type of market. Very similar to my 2005 suggested allocations for longer term investors (www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/longer_term.html), at the bottom of the page).

rondalw wrote: Again, no disrespect but my gut tells me to stick with my plan. Sticking with my original thoughts on market. 25 G, 25 c and 50 S. Just me.



Out of here, good luck

Well at least in the G fund you made some money this year, .09 a share.

Good on ya!

Dubious: Well, I am not sure what is meant by comment. However, I guarantee you I have made better then your projections. You are all but side sitters, thinking you can make it by reading charts. Get head out of ... and move on, ban me great, I don't follow your pusillanimous approach (duck and cover). Just quit fooling the people that watch this forum.

rondalw wrote: Dubious: Well, I am not sure what is meant by comment. However, I guarantee you I have made better then your projections. You are all but side sitters, thinking you can make it by reading charts. Get head out of ... and move on, ban me great, I don't follow your pusillanimous approach (duck and cover). Just quit fooling the people that watch this forum.
Welcome. You will fit right in :).

I am sure you are doing better then me with your investments. I am clueless. Please share your views with all of us. I have a pen and paper here to write down your wisdom.

Bless us, oh great one. :)

Dubious: Be advised I have already shared my "wisdom" I am not a sooth-sayer but you guys scare so many people with your projections. Yes, I have done well but I do not project it as the Holy Grail. Just common sense which I have seen little amongst the great ones here.

rondalw wrote: Dubious: Be advised I have already shared my "wisdom" I am not a sooth-sayer but you guys scare so many people with your projections. Yes, I have done well but I do not project it as the Holy Grail. Just common sense which I have seen little amongst the great ones here.
My projections have become reality more then not........the fed fuzzy math is a slight handicap. Hard to keep with all the "adjustments" to make things look rosy.

Anyone here is trying hard...sorry we do not meet your standards :?.

Crude is sitting at 55.87 on the current contract...common sense would tell me...that is like peanut butter for stocks.

But what do I know, I retired when I was 33.

Dr Clueless

Great, you retired at 33 but what does that have to with us getting ready to retire at age 50? Have you worked under this system? If you have, forgive me. Not usre what we are arguing abouy. I have a different view. Just don't want the scare tactics seen here messing with us fthat have had to work for teh "G" most of our live.

Straight scoop is all I ask.

Best advice is to follow Tom's comments.

I can not make money on the TSP accounts. The noon deadline and all the jazz slows me down. I really just let my account sit in G fund from after Xmas to around Halloween and once and awhile do the obvious of going 100% I fund for a day when something wonderful happens in the States. However, long term the trend for the U.S. stock markets is down. There may be a up week or two but that will be short lived.

My opinion (I know you hate charts but that is what I use that with economic data and a bit of historic refererence) is the S&P and NASDAQ have broken down. I believe the DOW needs to get to around 9000-9700. Head winds (are many). We have a 1972 situation in front of us. Commodity prices spiking, inflation on the rise and the fed dead at the switch. 1 Jun options will be considered expenses...that is going to sink the NAS.

If it was not for the commodities stocks the DOW would be off 5-6% this year at least.

We have the worse kind of bubble. The housing bubble. Bubbles in the past did not have the problem of people taking out the money to consume. Like take out your home equity and your line of credit to purchase more crap. In my opionion what is coming is going to make the Rodney King Riots look like a weiner roast.

Dome and glome enough for ya? The consumer debts after their home equity is wiped out is going to be mind blowing. Now you can not file for bankrupcy to wipe them clean. 34% of the middle class is going to be wiped out and another 25% will be in debter prison the rest of their lives.

:P

[Wheels]

rondalw wrote: I have been having good returns.25 G, 25 c and 50 S

Rough math off the top of my head says you are down about a third of a percent for the year. What am I missing?

Dave

rondalw wrote: Great, you retired at 33 but what does that have to with us getting ready to retire at age 50? Have you worked under this system? If you have, forgive me. Not usre what we are arguing abouy. I have a different view. Just don't want the scare tactics seen here messing with us fthat have had to work for teh "G" most of our live.

Straight scoop is all I ask.

Sometimes cash is king. It is an asset class. The do not talk about that on CNBC, I know. But sometimes cash (even the USD) is king.

If you want further advice...just PM me. You are eerking a lot of people.

I will be happy to help you one on one if you want me too. :P

Well again you look at the year to date. Since I have been in since the start of this TSP mess I calculate the long term. I actualy have done better on instinct then following the charts. Follow the pack and you will sink. Just don't want all these nay-sayers scaring us poor honest soles.

The poor honest souls are going to stay that way if they stay long this market. Go get em. Wish you luck.

:)

Dubious: I am no more irking (sp) people then your doomsday forecasts. So pleae spare me the attempts at a guilt trip. Keep talking how our economy is in the dredge of society. Great again you are retired at 33, most of us are not. Work on>>>>

[tsptalk]

rondalw wrote: Well again you look at the year to date. Since I have been in since the start of this TSP mess I calculate the long term. I actualy have done better on instinct then following the charts. Follow the pack and you will sink. Just don't want all these nay-sayers scaring us poor honest soles.
One thing I don't do is follow the pack. I consider myself a contrarian.

You can check out my longer term returns (since 2000 when I started tracking),here ... http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html.

My only regrets I have isthat I did not get bearish enough in 2001, 2002. Same with early 2004. I don't have a problem catching the rallies. It's knowing when to not buy the dips. I still have to slap my hand off the buy button now and then. :) I'm not sure if this is one of those times, but I'm leaning that way.

I'm not usually a doom and gloomer. If you read some of my market comments and posts from July to December 2004 (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive.html (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments_archive.html)) you will see I could have been, and was, accused of being a perma-bull.

I'm neither a perma-bull, nor a perma-bear. I let my indicators tell me what to do becausemy instincts aren't very good.

By the way, I have nothing against a buy and hold strategy, diversified or not. There are several here who do just that. It's just not my thing.

Tom

rondalw wrote: Dubious: I am no more irking (sp) people then your doomsday forecasts. So pleae spare me the attempts at a guilt trip. Keep talking how our economy is in the dredge of society. Great again you are retired at 33, most of us are not. Work on>>>>

Hey Dude,

You ask me for my opioniondo not beat me up because you do not like it. The U.S. has 78T (trillion) this ismove then theGDP of the whole world - the whole world - in unfunded liabilities. How would you like to pay the interest on that stink bomb? Well you do. To the tune of 5.6B A DAY in interest payments. In 2010 our whole GDP will go to interest payments...funding nothing else; no defense, no homeland security, no social security, no medicare, etc, etc. Just interest repayment. I understand about being happy and upbeat - but at times you have to get your head above the flowers and see what the hell is going on.

I got a question for you...how are we going to pay 78T in debt and run a 473B budget debt this year (without private accounts) and 690B budget overrun next year???

Bottom line: The USD is not in the crap hole because the WORLD ISWRONG and not wanting the USD. :? When one little bank starts really dumpingUSDs (we just have had threats so far) no one will want to be the last one out the door. Only reason they are holding them now is they can not figure how to get rid of them in a orderly way. Sooner or later someonelike Germany that took over $350B in exchange hit is going to say"We can not do this anymore" and start dumping. Thenthe rush for the door will start.

Anyway - tell me why I am wrong? Other foreign centralbanks love taking currency loses month after month after month. USD is down 34% in the last two years. That means they LOST 34% in the last two years holdingUSDs. How long would you take a 34% lose. I am amazed they stillputting up with it.

Just my .02.

Da Doc

Dead either way :(. Darn I was off by over 3T for unfunded liabilities - but hey what is 3T among friends?

We have 81T in unfunded liabilities and there isONLY 9.5T USD in existence - wow. That will work :(. Or GDP is 12T (in one year) and we owe81T.

That means if the gov spends$0 it would take over 30 years to pay the current 81T in unfunding liabilities because of the compounding interest. And we know the gov is not going to spend $0 they are over spending by 473B THIS year.
------------------------------------------------------


People and governments world-wide are in fact losing confidence in the dollar - at a very rapid pace. Here are the factors undermining that confidence:

• A $617 billion per year (2004) US trade imbalance.

• A $473 billion projected US federal budget deficit for 2005.

• $2-plus trillion international indebtedness of the US government (net outstanding treasury bonds liabilities).

• $78 trillion total private, local, state, and federal government indebtedness.

To put just these last two figures in perspective, the total current US money supply (M3) circulating is about $9.5 trillion dollars. Of those, only $697 billion are in physical cash currency. The total estimated US GDP in 2004 was only slightly under 12 trillion dollars. That's all US economic activity added up for one whole year.

Irredeemable Debt

The debt racked up under the current dollar system cannot be redeemed. It doesn't matter how hard Congress tries to restrict its spending (good luck!) or how well the economy is functioning.

The reason: the dollar itself is nothing but debt. It is a money-substitute that has been totally denuded of any connection with that which it is supposed to be substituting for. In other words: real money - gold and/or silver.

This is not news for most of you who read this, but it is worth remembering when we talk about "paying back the national debt."

How can such numbers ($78 trillion in total private and public indebtedness) ever be paid back - even if the means of payment (fiat dollars) was actually capable of retiring that debt?

Why go into all of this?

Because even die-hard gold investors are still "not quite sure" about gold being destined to go up in dollar terms for a long, long time (and actually going off the charts before too long - and staying there for the foreseeable future!)

And, as you can easily deduce from all the foregoing, gold is not going to do this just in dollar terms alone. This is happening - and will be happening - all across the entire fiat currency spectrum. The only difference is that some of the other currencies out there might actually survive this.

There are basically two scenarios here, but the outcome for the dollar will be the same.

It will happen either slowly - or quickly.

A Slow Death:

If it happens slowly, maybe the dollar in its current fiat incarnation (you can't really call it an "incarnation" because there is really no "flesh" on its bones) can survive as a currency in some form of use by some people.

Instant Death:

If it happens quickly (a so-called "crash-landing") the dollar and its underlying economy will disintegrate on impact.

Dead - Either Way:

But in either case, just as in the case of a landing or crashing airplane, the direction of the dollar's future movements (down) and the distance it is destined to travel (all the way down) remains the same.

What is the meaning of "all the way down" then, in practical terms?

It means all the way until all of the debt the dollar has racked up over the decades is either repaid (a literal impossibility, as we have seen) or repudiated, i.e., defaulted on.

What is the effect of total repudiation of all debt racked up under the dollar system?

The dollar - itself being a mere instrument or legal fiction evidencing that debt - will simply cease to exist, as there will no longer be any reason for its existence!

rondalw wrote: Again, no disrespect but my gut tells me to stick with my plan. Sticking with my original thoughts on market. 25 G, 25 c and 50 S. Just me.



Out of here, good luck

Ouch :(. Maybe you will get the penny in G fund. Because the other two - no penny for you. :(

Hold and Hope - The alter of hold and hope that has slaughter so many. Continues it sacrafices of the sheepy masses. :shock:

Hold and hope is an fund managers dream - market can fall 77.2% and you hear them say crap like "But we are buying more shares", "Our dollar cost average is being lowered" and my favorite "It will come back". Nas is still down 60%. We are not going to see 5000 on the NAS probably in our lifetimes. But yes it will come back it may be 50 years from now...but yes you will be correct. Chant after me - hold and hope, hold and hope - the brain washing continues. This is the fund company line of crap. Wake up! Wake up! Hold and hope DOES NOT WORK.

:?

rondalw wrote: I am sorry but, not to be disrespectful but, I have been watching a lot of you and rerading your comments and have decided that based upon a lot of your advice you are missing the boat. Too much technical and not enough common sense.

Just letting you know while the majority of you have been sitting on sidelines, I have been having good returns. No Techs, just common sense. Try it and go with it.

Thanks and out of here.





Hey where did you go?

When the market rallies for two days he will be back saying how great everything is. Market goes down 8% and does a dead cat bounce of2% and you hear "I am up 2%". :P Starts going down - do not hear a peek.

Law 1 of Hold and Hope. If the market goes up that counts towards your return. When it goes down that is a buying opportunity and is not factored into your total return.

Come back so I can tell you - "A closed mouth gathers no foot".

[Shaggy]

Dr. this is for you. If some some of these things happen that you talking about, what is the defense? I mean it really doesn't matter what you do G/S/C or I what ever you have will become worthless. I do savings bonds for my secure investment and play with TSP, those will also be worthless. Does this then mean that I could sell my 95 Honda for $200,000 and pay off my house? I remember when I was a kid seeing a news broadcast of people in some far off country hauling wheelbarrows full of money to go grocery shopping. Is this what you are talking about. If so is diversifying in physical Gold maybe an option of some safety?

[Rolo]

Dr_Dubious wrote: Welcome. You will fit right in :).

Please post your moves.

Ta. Da Doc.

Wellnow that's justhypocritical. Post YOUR moves, D-Dub. :X

Shaggy wrote: Dr. this is for you. If some some of these things happen that you talking about, what is the defense? I mean it really doesn't matter what you do G/S/C or I what ever you have will become worthless. I do savings bonds for my secure investment and play with TSP, those will also be worthless. Does this then mean that I could sell my 95 Honda for $200,000 and pay off my house? I remember when I was a kid seeing a news broadcast of people in some far off country hauling wheelbarrows full of money to go grocery shopping. Is this what you are talking about. If so is diversifying in physical Gold maybe an option of some safety?
Take the wheel barrow! Commodities my friend.

Gold is worthless unless you can buy it outside the country. You want collectible coins. Since that is overpriced now. There will be a pull back. You want to change your USDs into foreign currency in the commodity countries; Kiwi, Canada, Australia. If you can you also want to buy the Chinese Yuan. Once that bad boy uncouples it will go up 30% in a couple months. I feel it is 40% undervalued.

If you are close to a border go across and open up and account and change your USDs also get a safety deposit box and fill that bad boy up with silver.

Once USD breaks 81.50 range it is going to 74.

Crude will be 64 before November.

I have been saying the above since I joined this board. It has worked out so far for me. Some of my future contracts are up 600%. Pocket change for rolo...the all knowing one.

:shock:

Rolo wrote: Dr_Dubious wrote: Welcome. You will fit right in :).

Please post your moves.

Ta. Da Doc.

Wellnow that's justhypocritical. Post YOUR moves, D-Dub. :X

100% G. Have been 100% G for about two weeks. Did a three smash and grabs to the I fund. Yanked by coins out and I am still 100% G. I have an account thread.

Hopefully I will get a penny today :).

[Rolo]

Dr_Dubious wrote: I have an account thread.

Then please post in it before your trades, per the board rules, Dr Monday Morning commentator.

Perhaps, also, you can start your own topics with HOWTOs on all this fancy-schmancy stuff.

Rolo wrote: Dr_Dubious wrote: I have an account thread.

Then please post in it before your trades, per the board rules, Dr Monday Morning commentator.

Perhaps, also, you can start your own topics with HOWTOs on all this fancy-schmancy stuff.

I do post my TSP moves.

100% G Fund. I got me penny today. I am happy with that. :P

[Rolo]

Dr_Dubious wrote: I have 200-225 shorts going right now.

What are your top 6?

[tsptalk]

rondalw wrote: I am sorry but, not to be disrespectful but, I have been watching a lot of you and rerading your comments and have decided that based upon a lot of your advice you are missing the boat. Too much technical and not enough common sense.

Just letting you know while the majority of you have been sitting on sidelines, I have been having good returns. No Techs, just common sense. Try it and go with it.

Thanks and out of here.

Re: Missing the Boat

The boat sprung a leak. It will be difficult to say this without sounding like gloating, that's not what I'm doing. The point is these types of posts tend to come at market turning points. There were similar posts in August telling me I was nuts to be fully invested in that type of market. Remember the monkey throwing darts comment someone threw at me? :) I am certainly wrong a lot, but I can usually tell by the tone of the posts when the market is ready to make a move. The market is down3% since that post. That is nothing to a buy and hold investor but it is certainly a tradable move to a short term player.

[Spaf]

tsptalk wrote: Re: Missing the Boat

Tom.....Without a time reference, I don't understand any facts, just the vague reference???

On February 18th the TSP funds were: G=10.74 C=12.83 S=14.47
On March 22th the TSP funds were: G=10.78 C=12.53 S=14.28

Rgds :% Spaf

[tsptalk]

Sorry, it was from the 1st post in this topic (see above) made on March 14th.

[Spaf]

tsptalk wrote: Sorry, it was from the 1st post in this topic (see above) made on March 14th.
OK March 14th: G=10.77 C=12.91 S=14.58 Still don't understand!!!!

[tsptalk]

There was no boat! :? The market is down 3% since 3/14. He said we had no common sense for getting out.

Someone help me out here. :% :)