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bailemi
05-08-2012, 10:50 AM
18787

Hopefully you saw this before I did. The drop today was a little ahead of time. As you can see the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern has just crossed the neckline and has the potential to drop to $635 (W4500) which is about 6.5% from $677. These numbers are targeted.
nasa1974
05-09-2012, 01:02 PM
Nice to see someone charting the S fund. Hope your wrong about the drop.
RealMoneyIssues
05-09-2012, 01:15 PM
Until it closes below 678, the H&S hasn't triggered.

Someone is fighting hard (Big Ben?) to keep all of these index H&S patterns from triggering...
bailemi
05-09-2012, 01:50 PM
Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't sure if it had to close or break the plain to be triggered. Also, since volume is not a factor in the W4500 I wasn't sure if this was a legitimate H&S.
RealMoneyIssues
05-09-2012, 02:01 PM
Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't sure if it had to close or break the plain to be triggered. Also, since volume is not a factor in the W4500 I wasn't sure if this was a legitimate H&S.

Not sure if volume has a dog in this fight... but I only know the basics...
Dutchy
05-09-2012, 02:50 PM
Until it closes below 678, the H&S hasn't triggered.

Someone is fighting hard (Big Ben?) to keep all of these index H&S patterns from triggering...

Uptrend posted in his blog that S Fund has solid support @675 and after that a potential bounce...
RealMoneyIssues
05-09-2012, 02:53 PM
Uptrend posted in his blog that S Fund has solid support @675 and after that a potential bounce...

Well, we hit the 675, so maybe we keep bouncing... :D
bailemi
05-10-2012, 09:03 AM
18829

I believe Uptrend and I are reading the chart the same. I wasn’t fully knowledgeable about the H&S pattern and assumed when the market crossed the $675 neckline it would break down. However, the market must close below the neckline to confirm the H&S and a breakdown with a potential loss is expected. The neckline at the time was support and was proved to be support. Using the Fibonacci Retracement you can see the halfway point (50) is at $696. I was expecting the market to bounce up a bit before the neckline was broken and this would fulfill my expectations. Due to the IPO of FB, which I expect to see a rise in the W4500, the H&S may get skewed. I was expecting the breakdown a week before the IPO and expecting the IPO to gain and test the H&S new resistance line (H&S neckline).