Testing the waters on Thursday - 4/8/04

[JerBer]

Is anyone planning on testing the Thursday before Good Friday theory Tom mentioned in his market comments today? I tested the post job report market theory with some success and am contemplating giving this one a shot.

JerBer

[smine]

I went with a small portion in I and F with majority in G until everyone makes up our mind! What's your plan for Thursday?

[tsptalk]

We had another earnings warning after the close today. This one from Seagate. It seems to have the futures down after the close. If we are down again in the morning (Wednesday) before the noon deadline, I will make a ONE DAY move into stocks for Thursday. The Monday after Easter is not usually a great day and depending on what happens Wed and Thurs we will probably continue the short pullback early next week. If we are down big Wednesday, which is a long shot, I may keep a small something in the C,S or I over the weekend. I will send out an email and post something here.

Remember, Friday the stock markets are closed although I'm not sure how that affects the EAFE.

Tom

[COONDOGCEMETARY]

im a gambler, yes ill be in s and c for thursday,

[JerBer]

Ditto for me Hope !!

JerBer

[NatX]

I'm a bit of a risk taker as well so I'll give it a go also! I have a question for you about jumping in and out though. We place a transfer before noon today effective tomorrow, got that. Do we then place another transfer tomorrow effective for Monday or do we just ride out Monday and hope for a good Tuesday and place another transfer effective for Wednesday?Sorry, it's just a bit confusing for me. Thanks!

[GS083]

I will also go for it. I made out pretty good in the C & S the past few days (except yesterday)and can afford to lose or make a few dollars.

[zarth]

Ditto NatX's question. How long are we talking? Just a day? Jump in forThursday and jump back outfor Monday? :?

[tsptalk]

How long depends on what happens today (Wednesday). I plan to be out for Monday so yes, this is a one day play for me. But as I hinted in the comments (http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html) I may leave a small amount (25%) in the stock funds for Monday. I will discuss thatmorein Thursday's comments.

Tom

[tsptalk]

It looks like we will be getting that .20% loss today before the deadline.I made my transfer.

[puertorico]

Tom,do u made 100% to C ?

[tsptalk]

Yes.

[NatX]

I'm in as well. 100% C for tomorrow.

[tsptalk]

Like I mentioned in the comments, this seasonality data didn't work out for me in March, but you have to admit this Good Friday chart is compelling.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/easter_040504.gif

Chart provided by www.sentimentrader.com (http://www.sentimentrader.com/)

[eukrate]

It's an interesting chart, but the statistics are based on only 53 days. Except for the -1 day, tomorrow, the %positives look to be within normal variability. Only the 70% (which represents 35 days) looks convincing. Going by this chart alone, I would agree about 100%C tomorrow, but after that it's not clear..

[GS083]

I'm in as well.

[tsptalk]

It actually gets better in bull markets.The67% is for all occurances of theThursday prior to Good friday.I don't have the chart to post but basically when the S&P was above its 50-day m.a., then the day before Good Friday was higher 76% of the time. In this instance the Monday and Tuesday following Easter is generally positive more often than negative and within in normal range for that stat, but the averagegain on that Tuesday is significantly above the normal range. Particularly if Monday was a down day.

The fact that we are stilloverbought, althoughthese last couple days are helping,makes it likely that itis a one day play, then I will go back to following my normal indicators. If we do pullback on Monday,ideally down near the gap I mentioned and the50 day ma (both are at about the same level) Tuesday could also be a day to be in stocks, perhaps even for longer term. But that might be premature. We'll have to wait and see on that one.

Tom

[tsptalk]

Yahoo! posted solid earnings after the close and announced a 2-1 stock split. This should bode well for the market tomorrow as the stock jumped 10% after hours already. Yahoo! is part of the S&P 500.

[tsptalk]

And I see that a bin Laden capture rumor late Wednesday ruined a perfectly good down day ;)

[COONDOGCEMETARY]

Tom , thank you for the info that u supply. it really helps when deciding about a transfer of funds.

how did u find the history of the thursday before good friday.

the odds are in our favor tomorrow,

if the market is up tomorrow , in ur opinion, would the i fund theory be useful.

[tsptalk]

hopetohititbig wrote: Tom , thank you for the info that u supply. it really helps when deciding about a transfer of funds.
how did u find the history of the thursday before good friday.
the odds are in our favor tomorrow,
if the market is up tomorrow , in ur opinion, would the i fund theory be useful.

I subscribe to a lot of stock services. This particular data came from sentimentrader.com. I usually list the source of anything I put on the comments page in case you want to check them out.

I am less enthusiastic about the I fund strategy although that doesn't mean the I fund won't go up. It's just the legitimacy of the strategy seems to have weakened since we know a little more aboutthe timing of the foreign markets as they relate to the I fund.

By the way, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures (after hours trading) are up pretty nicely since the Yahoo! report.

[GTO1970]

Ok i'm new to tsptalkand a 14 years long term investor in tsp but i'm going to give this a shot!

I have been vested 70%C, 20%S and 10%I since Mar03 but this Easter Bunny One Day HOP sound good to me and makessense.

So Thursday I'm hiding all in G for Monday and back inon Tuesday 70%C,20%S and 10%I

GTO1970

[tsptalk]

Welcome GTO!

Thanks for joining us. The pressure is on us now ;)

Tom

First of all, this is a wonderful site full of information and hard work. But having said that.The fact that you have left your money alone for the past year in stock funds, during a bull market, probably means that you have outperformed most people on this board who gamble each day moving there money in and out. If I were you, I would leave my $ alone. It is only one day! Resist the temptation. I would just watch for 6 months or so to see how people (like TSP Talk) are returning on their money versus being diversified and holding like yourself. That is what I am doing. I can tell you from chasing returns myself the past year and one halfthat it typically doesn't work (short timing the market, that is) I believe in trends, etc., more for the long term. I also believe that there is a time (for a longer periord) to be out of the market, like the bear market of 2000-2002. Disregard everything I have mentioned if you LIKE to trade each day, worry about it and lose sleep at night, then become addicted toit. Just my opinion from observation of the past three months of all the in and outers. I hope that I have not offended anyone, just my observation.

[smine]

You make valid observations. Here's mine. For years, and I mean 2 decades in some cases, employees simply just had money deducted and had not a clue as to where it went and how it was invested. At least they are now accessing their account and looking at it. I took an interest last summer and started moving it as I wanted. Result was increases I won't mention but am very proud of. Of course funds were added, but not near what I made after moving to C, S and I. Overall, not a bad result! People need to know all about their future retirement funds. After all, in the next ten years thousands of baby boomers will retire.

[tsptalk]

I moved this interesting discussion to TSP Strategies (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum6/129.html). It could go on a while and I didn't want to clutter up the Allocation Changes topic.

Thanks,
Tom

Go S&P!!!!!!!!!! haha, 40 more minutes......