Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Quick update tonight. The market pulled back a bit, which may be an early sell-the-news reaction to the tax bill plan. I would be surprised if the market did not react in a big way once the plan is either passed or delayed (can it fail?). The consensus appears to be that it will pass the Senate. What I am not sure of, is whether the market will in fact rally on the news should it indeed pass.

The OEX P/C is bearish for Wednesday, which is when we could see a vote one way or the other. The CBOE is a bit bearish too.

We'll see what happens. One thing is for sure; this is still a bull market regardless of what happens in the next day or 2.

So the tax bill passed and some big companies immediately announced bonuses for employees and huge infrastructure plans on the news and the market just shrugged.

Not exactly the kind of reaction I expected, but at least we didn't get a big sell-the-news response.

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Of course, the charts remain bullish despite the modest pullback.

Sentiment shows the options neutral to modestly bearish for Thursday. We'll get a fresh NAAIM reading today. Seasonality is very positive, but the holidays tend to be slow as many take time off to enjoy the season.

I remain long.

The modest sell-the-news reaction we got on the tax bill passage did not take long to see a moderate upside reversal on Thursday. A late day sell-off tempered gains, but that may be traders who don't want to remain long over the holidays as many may be traveling to enjoy time with relatives. The big picture though, is this is the time of year that you have to be looking for a bias higher. And the tax bill is very bullish event for 2018 and beyond. Seasonality is tough to beat in December and early January.

NAAIM tempered their bullishness this week, but they are still bullish overall. The options are on the neutral side for Friday.

I expect volume to drop over the next 2 weeks or so. The action may be muted, but I'm hoping it will be biased higher even if the moves are incremental. We do have a potential for a Government shutdown, but I don't think that will be much of a factor if it occurs.

Hope everyone had a joyous Christmas!

Now that we're into the holiday season, the market traded in subdued fashion as expected. The options are neutral. Breadth is very bullish. Overall sentiment is too bullish, though I am not too concerned about that. I remain long S fund and TNA.

Early on, it looked like the market might be inclined to bias to the upside on the day, but instead it chopped lower and closed not far from the flat line. The trading range was rather tight.

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The options are neutral for Thursday. Breadth is hitting fresh all-time highs. TRINQ is very high, which typically means a reversal the next day (in this case, down), but BPCOMPQ is running to the upside and seasonality is bullish. Low volume also favors the bulls.

Bottom line: I remain long.

Good morning, do you believe that we might see a rally tomorrow to be followed by profit taking after the new year? Or a sellout to be followed by a rally? I've seen it go both ways in the past. Just wondering what your take is on this. Happy New Year!

Reason I ask is that if I have an IFT left nearing the end of the month, sometimes I usually use it by making a one or two day move based on what I think will occur in the very short term.

Originally Posted by Robo5555

Good morning, do you believe that we might see a rally tomorrow to be followed by profit taking after the new year? Or a sellout to be followed by a rally? I've seen it go both ways in the past. Just wondering what your take is on this. Happy New Year!

Reason I ask is that if I have an IFT left nearing the end of the month, sometimes I usually use it by making a one or two day move based on what I think will occur in the very short term.

Next week is still part of the holiday season and therefore I doubt we see profit taking of any magnitude. NAAIM remains bullish as does breadth.

If something changes, I'll post it here, but I am not bearish heading into next week.

Thanks CH.

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Okay, after reviewing the latest information available to me, I think there is a reasonable chance the market sees some weakness next week. That is not a slam dunk in a market displaying positive breadth. Futures are pointing to a higher open. If we rally, the chances for some selling next week go up. Still, how much weakness we might see is debatable. It may be worth playing for, but I don't have a feel for the degree of any downside we may get.

I may lighten up this morning, but won't go entirely to the sidelines.

Another promising open gone flat. Watching the grass grow would be more exiting.

The action is not inspiring for bulls or bears, but the bulls are still in charge. I won't be making any adjustments to my current positions today.