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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6193

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that a bottom was likely in given the big reversal in the major averages. I also said that if the DWCPF could clear its last peak at a key resistance area, the market might mount a decent rally.

    Well, the 1st of the month has a tendency to be positive, but expectation and then news of a Paris Accord exit seems to have been the catalyst for the nice gains we got on Thursday. And it really was good news for us here in the US. The rally makes me wonder who really has control of the market right now. It may not be the CB. And that would be a really good thing if true.

    S&P 500.png

    The S&P 500 had a nice pop to the upside today and volume was decent. Momentum has turned back up too.

    DWCPF.png

    I have to say, it's about time the DWCPF gave us S funders a break. Price did a lot of catching up on Thursday, but it hasn't quite tested its all-time high yet. It's likely that it does, but I don't know if it will be the very short-term. But I do like what I see right now as it powered through that area of resistance with ease. There may be resistance just up ahead as well, but not for the S&P 500, so resistance on this chart does not mean as much to me. If anything, this index may continue to outperform a bit longer.

    Breadth, which was already positive along with liquidity, took a decided jump to the upside today. That could indicate some upside follow through is likely. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish on Thursday, but not nearly enough to be of any concern. It's bullish. And so am I for now.

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  3. #6194

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I am on travel this week and don't always have time to post, so it can be hit and miss while on the road.

    SPX.jpg

    So far this week, the S&P 500 has pulled back somewhat modestly and it may be forming a bull flag, so I'd not get too bearish right now. There could be another shot even higher before a more meaningful pullback.

    DWCPF.jpg

    As expected, small caps are creating bigger pullbacks for the S fund, but it too may be forming a bull flag.

    The options are bearish for Wednesday, but not overly so. Breadth and liquidity are weakening, but within bullish parameters. My intermediate term system remains bullish as well.

    For now, the market looks like it could very well be setting up for a surprise move higher to trap the early bears. I am not excited about the downside prospects at all.

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  5. #6195

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I am flying early tomorrow morning, so I'm just going to post a bit of commentary. The market chopped around on Wednesday and that did nothing to change my previous outlook. I still think the bears need to be very careful depending on the time frame one is trading (if you're short). Breadth and liquidity remain positive. The options are neutral. Sentiment in general is supportive for the bulls.

    I do not generally try to predict market action around political events, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Comey testimony may favor Trump and that may very well rally the market. I won't see the market action until I land in the late afternoon, which is after the markets close. It's going to be an interesting day.

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  7. #6196

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Have a safe trip!

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  9. #6197

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I just got online for the first time today and saw that the Comey testimony heavily favored Trump, as I suspected it would.

    SPX.jpg

    The S&P 500 went nowhere on the news, but...

    DWCPF.jpg

    the DWCPF rallied back to test resistance and held most of its gains.

    The rally in small caps could mean there's more upside to come. The options are a on the bearish side for Friday, but NAAIM remains solidly bullish. My indicators in general remain bullish. I suspect we get more upside before any meaningful pullback. I am just not sure how much we can expect.

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  11. #6198

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Not a ton of change today. VIX closed higher. The options are largely neutral. Breadth remains bullish as does liquidity. I still don't see a lot of downside risk. Dips are still being bought.

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  13. #6199

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Tuesday saw a moderate rally, but Wednesday has a plethora of economic data being released. Is some degree of a reversal on tap?

    S&P 500.png

    The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high Tuesday. Not by much, but a fresh high none-the-less.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF easily closed at a fresh all-time high as well. Momentum is rising nicely.

    The EFA bounced, but no new high.

    Breadth is lifting off and looks very bullish. Liquidity looks very good too. The options are neutral for Wednesday.

    I see no reason not to be bullish, but the market could pull back on Wednesday. I think it's a buying opportunity if we get that weakness.

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  15. #6200

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Might be a good day to make a move.
    May the force be with us.

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  17. #6201

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    A few days ago I showed you a chart of the Bank Index, BKX. It was in rally mode and I noted that this was highly suggestive of rising rates. It was and we got one on Wednesday. Yesterday, I said that I was looking for some weakness on Wednesday, but that it was likely a buying opportunity. We got some weakness. Was it a buying opportunity? I think it might have been. The action has to be maddeningly frustrating for the bears. Downside traction is hard to come by. Money flows are shifting, so while one sector or index may be getting hammered, others are rising. The fact is, money has to find a home and it usually seeks those places where it's treated best. The exception to that is a central bank manipulated correction. That's why I watch liquidity, which remains steadfastly bullish.

    S&P 500.png

    We got a modest pullback in the S&P 500 on Wednesday. The trend remains up.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF pulled back a bit deeper, but not enough for price to drop back below that line of resistance. That area is still resistance all the way to 1239 or so. We can see that the last rally off the bottom in mid-May has come a good ways.

    My indicators are largely neutral to bullish. The market is due a more meaningful pullback, but so far it's been elusive. It could come at any time, but fresh highs could too. I'm still not excited about downside prospects.


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  19. #6202

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that I wasn't sure what the market was going to do on Thursday as I could see it going either way. I also said I was not enamored with downside prospects. I'm still not. The pullback we got on Thursday did not do much damage to the overall technical picture. The weakness is likely a buying opportunity.

    S&P 500.png

    The S&P 500 shows what appears to be a moderate term consolidation period that will likely resolve to the upside sooner or later. Price is well above the 50 dma and the 200 dma is way down there.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF fell back below a key resistance area, but price did not make a lower low, so I'd not read too much into the action at this point.

    EFA.png

    The EFA is struggling, though price remains well above its rising 50 dma. Momentum is still falling, however, and RSI is well away from an oversold condition. It doesn't have to get there, but downside momentum is still building.

    NAAIM came in a bit more bullish, so no new news there. They've been largely bullish for some now and that should keep us in the bullish camp too. Breadth is in a short-term decline, but still bullish overall.

    I am anticipating a reversal back to the upside on Friday, though not necessarily a big rally. The downside action is hardly inspiring if you're a bear.

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  21. #6203

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I am on travel again this week, so there's a chance I have trouble posting over the next few days.

    I said in my blog over the weekend that the bears needed to be beware as my indicators just were not leaning much in that direction. So, now the first trading day of the new week is behind us and the S&P 500 is sitting at another all-time high with the chance for more gains very much in play.

    SPX.jpg

    Momentum has turned back on the S&P 500. RSI is just a tad from overbought. I would not get overly concerned about the high RSI reading yet as overbought can get a lot more overbought, but we'll take it a day at a time.

    DWCPF.jpg

    Price on the DWCPF closed back into that resistance area again. It's now a stone's throw from its previous intra-day high.

    The EFA managed to rally again on Monday, but has yet to challenge its previous high.

    Nothing has really changed. The options are still neutral, but more importantly for the bulls is that breadth and liquidity remain bullish. Buying dips is still working.

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  23. #6204

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I said I was leaning bearish again on Wednesday given the weak close on Tuesday and repeat low reading on TRINQ. Obviously, we got more weakness, but it wasn't ugly.

    SPX.jpg

    Over the past 2-3 weeks, price on the S&P 500 is stair-stepping higher. This chart is not bearish, we just have some short-term weakness playing out.

    DWCPF.jpg

    The DWCPF is testing its previous low and closed with a lower low, but there is support in the 1215 area just under the closing price. Momentum is still falling, however.

    I am seeing a deterioration in my intermediate term system, but it does remain positive. Breadth is still positive too, but is close to flipping negative.

    Overall, I tend to believe that the technical indicators are simply setting up the next rally after a period of consolidation. While NAAIM may be bullish, a lot of other surveys are harboring a goodly number of bears; certainly enough to keep the market buoyant. And NAAIM is smart money, while the others are not.

    The downside may not be finished yet, but I'm going to be looking for a chance to get long again in my other accounts outside of TSP.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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