Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

Originally Posted by ravensfan

...Besides, doesn't seasonality dictate the C Fund is the place to be in May?

Actually, now that I have monthly data going back a full 30 years (and proof that a basic seasonal system would have blown away the S&P 500's return over those 30 years, returning 15.83% versus 10.13%), I can answer that question. Over the last 10 years the G fund is the best for the month of May, but C and S do the best in the long run (20 and 30 years). Looking over charts tonight I see some that are telling me a rally or maybe something much bigger (new highs) to the upside is about to unfold...like QQQ for example, notice how oversold the MFI is...plug in AAPL and it's the same...
QQQ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I see that the lunatic trader's chart is predicting a high for the month on 5/17, so maybe that's what is about to unfold:
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/

I think I'm going to take the plunge and get in, just trying to decide on tomorrow or Friday...and going back to the seasonality for May, it's about a toss up...S wins over the last 20 years (up an average of 0.77%) and C wins over the last 30 years, up 1.3%, slightly beating S. Both C and S are in the red over the last 10 years though, and the I fund's April strength wears off and it's typically the anchor in May.

One guru is predicting a rally tomorrow (and I see the futures are up strong...was today the day to jump in?) and then one more drop Friday and into Monday morning...so it's a tough call whether I want to jump in tomorrow or Friday...or stay put...ah, what the heck, I'm putting in the move now but could change my mind in the morning.

Meanwhile it's possible the dollar is reversing straight up as I mentioned yesterday, and that could unleash a chain-reaction that blows everything up...
China Blowing Even Bigger Credit Bubble Puts World at Greater Risk, Says Global Strategist | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

TS: The dollar looks to rise but that means the Yen is set to fall and oil is probably headed to $50. The yuan was substantially devalued yesterday I believe. So I'm expecting a big kick up starting today for a short period. I think this will be followed by a scary retrace that we've all been concerned about since Feb.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

TS: The dollar looks to rise but that means the Yen is set to fall and oil is probably headed to $50. The yuan was substantially devalued yesterday I believe. So I'm expecting a big kick up starting today for a short period. I think this will be followed by a scary retrace that we've all been concerned about since Feb.

FS

Do you think there will be any follow through to Friday or Monday?

No clue WS. My guess is UP today...followed by down tomorrow (probably jobs report but who knows) and down again Monday because its Monday. Then I think it goes up through mid May. Overall, I think this trade will play up for a brief period. A total guess on my part.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

No clue WS. My guess is UP today...followed by down tomorrow (probably jobs report but who knows) and down again Monday because its Monday. Then I think it goes up through mid May. Overall, I think this trade will play up for a brief period. A total guess on my part.

FS

Thanks FS! Seeing some signs of life now. Agree re. jobs w/jobless claims up; much talk of strength on the Marketwatch stream...

I've gone INTERNATIONAL!

Turkish markets whipsaw after PM Davutoglu steps down - MarketWatch.com

Ruh roh... is the market heading south over this?

‘Low-interest-rate’ Trump wants to replace Yellen, refinance U.S. debt - MarketWatch

Don't like riding this thing down; have been basing this on positive reporting of coming strength, which isn't appearing. I still think the media is manipulating... At any rate, hoping for a bounce and some upward movement next week, then I'm out. Or a stop loss in the next few days.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Don't like riding this thing down; have been basing this on positive reporting of coming strength, which isn't appearing. I still think the media is manipulating... At any rate, hoping for a bounce and some upward movement next week, then I'm out. Or a stop loss in the next few days.

Making a temporary move here to catch a bounce next week. I'm feeling a bigger bounce coming in the S Fund. Hope I don't get Whipsawed. 😜😁

Originally Posted by felixthecat

Making a temporary move here to catch a bounce next week. I'm feeling a bigger bounce coming in the S Fund. Hope I don't get Whipsawed. 

Did somebody say Whipsaw?

Up this morning, any predictions on upside targets or follow through?

Oldest daughter graduated with a Master of Arts from American University on Saturday! Next daughter graduates with a Bachelor of Arts next weekend. Racking up the miles on the Exploder to get to all of these stupendous events.